重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 112.090 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.05%报 108.210 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.870 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.01%报 102.394 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 28 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3775 亿 元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量 3775 亿元，中标量 3775 亿元。Wind 数据显示，当日 3635 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 140 亿元。 住房城乡建设部透露，2025 年 1-12 月份，全国新开工改造城镇老旧小区 2.71 万 个、499 万户，共完成投资 1332 亿元。据了解，2025 年，全国计划新开工改造城镇老 旧小区 2.5 万个。 美联储维持基准利率在 3.50%-3. ...

来源：中新经纬 2026年1月29日 以上为上海区域金价，全国其它地区请以门店每日公示金价为 准。感谢您的支持,祝您生活愉快,好运莲莲! 周生生 <how Sang Sang 受此影响，部分国内品牌金饰价格也创历史新高，单日上涨百元左右。中新经纬29日查询发现，老庙黄金为1722元/克，单日上涨104元，周生生为1708 元/克，单日上涨94元；老凤祥为1713元/克，单日上涨93元/克。 命老庙 最新金价 l 觉老庙 给您带来好运气 | 名称 | 价格(人民币/克) | | --- | --- | | 足金饰品 | 1722.00 | | 铂金饰品 | 860.00 | | 工艺金条 | 1547.00 | 29日早间，现货黄金直线拉涨，在突破5500美元后盘中一度逼近5600美元，最高报5598.750美元/盎司，随后快速回落100美元至5500美元附近。截至发 稿，报5504.980美元/盎司，涨1.61%。 | W | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | ...

与此同时，市场对2025–2026年降息周期的强烈预期（联邦基金利率期货显示2025年降息概率超70%） 形成"加息终点临近"的定价共识，实际利率（10年期TIPS收益率1.8%）与名义利率倒挂进一步强化黄 金配置价值，历史数据显示近三次加息周期结束后6个月内黄金平均涨幅达15%；全球地缘冲突持续、 美债规模突破37万亿美元、IMF预警2024年全球GDP增速降至2.7%，促使资金撤离风险资产，黄金ETF 持仓量逆势增长23%至2021年以来最高水平，凸显其"终极避险资产"属性。 COMEX黄金未平仓合约于2024年4月突破60万手，算法交易与CTA基金基于波动率突破策略形成"加息 →美元走弱预期→金价上涨→更多买盘"的正反馈循环，黄金与实际利率的脱敏现象反映市场对通胀韧 性的深度定价。 更关键的是，全球央行连续15年净购金（2022–2024年累计增持3177吨），新兴市场占比超70%，中国 央行2024年增持42吨使黄金储备占比升至4.3%，推动人民币国际化进程，黄金在全球储备中占比升至 28.9%，美元占比跌破60%，标志着黄金正从避险工具演变为全球货币体系重构中的战略锚定资产，其 上涨本质是美元信用裂 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai rose to 102,430 CNY, while London copper fluctuated around 13,112 USD [4][17] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral to bearish, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and Powell's statements cooling rate cut expectations, alongside escalating tensions in Iran creating risk-averse sentiment [5][17] - The inventory of copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3,130 tons to 148,000 tons, while LME copper stocks rose by 1,575 tons to 173,900 tons, indicating a negative feedback on demand due to high prices [5][17] - Despite downstream purchasing at lower prices, the pressure on spot prices remains, and the market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term, with a reference range of 99,800 - 103,000 CNY per ton for the main copper futures [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel and stainless steel market continues to react to Indonesian policy developments, with prices expected to remain high in the short term due to tight policy expectations [6][18] - The supply of nickel from the Philippines is hindered by weather conditions, while Indonesian wet method nickel is relatively abundant, but the supply of fire method nickel is tight [6][18] - The operational range for nickel futures is set at 140,000 - 160,000 CNY per ton, and for stainless steel at 14,000 - 15,500 CNY per ton [6][18] Group 3: Polysilicon Market - The polysilicon market is experiencing weak transaction volumes, with some companies lowering prices and downstream purchasing intentions remaining low due to demand being pulled forward [19] - The silicon industry association forecasts a 15% quarter-on-quarter decrease in polysilicon production for January, with further reductions expected in February to 82,000 - 85,000 tons [19] Group 4: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market saw a slight rebound in alumina prices, with current supply reductions expected to support short-term price increases [20][21] - A major alumina producer in Guizhou has reduced production, leading to a tighter supply in the Southwest region, while logistics are expected to tighten as the Spring Festival approaches [20][21] - The operational range for aluminum futures is set at 24,800 - 26,000 CNY per ton, with a recommendation to hold existing long positions [21] Group 5: Zinc and Lead Markets - Zinc prices are experiencing strong fluctuations, with the macroeconomic environment being mixed following the Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate cuts [23] - Supply-side issues are noted, with production expected to decrease by over 50,000 tons due to maintenance and natural days off in February [23] - The operational range for zinc futures is set at 24,500 - 26,000 CNY per ton, while lead futures are expected to operate within 16,800 - 17,800 CNY per ton [23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, breaking historical thresholds, reflects a significant shift in market perception regarding gold's value as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2][16]. Geopolitical Risks - Gold's status as a safe-haven asset is rooted in its independence from government and corporate credit, making it a reliable store of value during macroeconomic turmoil [2][3]. - Recent geopolitical events, including military actions and trade tensions, have intensified short-term demand for gold, transitioning it from a temporary hedge to a long-term strategic asset [3][4]. Monetary Credit Risks - The weakening of the dollar-based global monetary system has amplified gold's appeal as a non-sovereign asset, unaffected by any single country's monetary policy [7][8]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dollar and prompting central banks to increase their gold reserves [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies has further enhanced gold's attractiveness, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [9][10]. Macroeconomic Uncertainty - Global economic conditions are increasingly precarious, with low investment and rising tariffs contributing to a slowdown in trade growth [11][12]. - The expectation of stagflation has emerged, with gold being recognized for its dual role as an inflation hedge and a safe asset during economic downturns [12][13]. - The current "asset scarcity" environment, characterized by high equity valuations and declining interest in alternative assets, has shifted investor focus towards gold as a risk diversification tool [13][14]. Conclusion and Outlook - The rise in gold prices serves as a warning signal regarding global macroeconomic instability, reflecting both immediate geopolitical tensions and long-term uncertainties [15][16]. - Future gold price movements will likely depend on the resolution of geopolitical conflicts, effective management of debt risks, and the overall strength of economic recovery [16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in resource prices, including gold reaching a historical high of $5,417 and oil prices hitting a four-month peak, reflects a complex interplay of market sentiments driven by credit anxiety, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand imbalances in industrial metals [1][4][5][6]. Group 1: Credit Anxiety - The primary driver of gold's price increase is deep-seated anxiety regarding the credibility of the US dollar, with the dollar index dropping over 10% this year, marking its worst start in nearly 40 years [4]. - Gold is viewed as a "safe haven" asset, gaining traction as a response to concerns over "de-dollarization" and the US fiscal deficit, making its price rise a reflection of confidence in currency rather than a simple commodity bull market [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Oil prices have surged due to heightened geopolitical conflicts, which inject a significant "risk premium" into oil prices, leading to rapid and volatile price movements influenced by news headlines and political statements [5]. - The volatility in oil prices poses challenges for investors, requiring acute short-term awareness and discipline in trading strategies [5]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Imbalances - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing significant supply shortages, with a projected copper deficit of 330,000 tons next year due to unexpected production halts and increasing demand from AI data centers and global energy transitions [6]. - The transformation of aluminum from a traditional construction metal to a key component in new energy and technology sectors underscores the long-term growth potential in industrial metals, driven by real supply-demand dynamics rather than market sentiment [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to differentiate asset types: gold serves as a long-term hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, oil trading requires short-term tactical approaches, and investments in industrial metals should focus on long-term trends driven by technological advancements [7]. - The strategy of "buying on divergence and selling on consensus" is emphasized, suggesting that true investment opportunities often arise during periods of market cooling and divergence in sentiment [8]. - Investors should assess their portfolio's resilience to potential volatility in resource sectors, ensuring a balanced approach that includes both offensive and defensive positions [8].

◎记者 黄冰玉 近几个交易日，美元遭遇显著"抛压"。当地时间1月27日，美元指数急速破位下行，创近四年新低。 分析人士普遍认为，除去短期风险事件因素的干扰，美元正面临着深层次的结构性困境——美国政策不 确定性上升、财政可持续性忧虑及美联储独立性受质疑等因素，正逐步侵蚀"美元信用"。 与此同时，在全球"去美元化"趋势加速背景下，黄金价格连创新高，一场对美元国际货币体系核心地位 的系统性重估，正在全球市场上演。 面临结构性困局 抛开短期风险事件影响，美元的趋势性走弱，由更深层次的结构性因素所驱动。"美元信用"崩塌的叙 事，正在被重新点燃。 美元作为全球核心货币的几大信用支柱正遭遇结构性挑战。白雪表示：一是美国政策的不确定性正侵蚀 市场对美元的制度性信任，同时，美联储的独立性受到质疑，其政策框架的稳定性和可预测性面临考 验；二是美国财政与贸易账户的长期"双赤字"经济结构，形成"债务依赖型"经济模式，这从根本上削弱 了美元的币值稳定性、透支了美元的国家信用根基；三是制造业空心化、贫富分化加剧等结构性问题， 削弱了美国经济的长期增长潜力和美元的支撑基础。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对上证报记者表示："大而美"法案持续推高 ...

我问你个问题，你最近看金价走势图了吗？那种斜率，看得我后背发凉。就在这两天，金价已经彻底疯了，国际金价在2026年1月28日前后硬 生生站稳了5200美元每盎司的关口。 我记得前两年大家还在讨论两千美元是不是天花板，结果现在回过头看，那简直是地板。我查了一下美联储最新的公开数据，美国现在的国 债规模已经飙到了38.4万亿美元，这个数字就在那儿摆着，每天睁眼就是几十亿的利息。 你有没有发现，华尔街那帮人现在一边在媒体上喊着风险，一边手里的动作比谁都快？他们这摆明了是把黄金当成最后的抽水泵。逻辑其实 挺简单的，美联储现在不敢不降息。根据联邦储备系统最新的贴现率会议记录，美联储为了保住那点可怜的就业率和防止中小银行集体崩 盘，在过去的几个月里连续下调利率。钱一旦便宜了，原本趴在美债里的资金就开始坐不住了，如果这些钱大规模换成欧元、日元，甚至流 向东南亚和中国的资产，那美元的霸权基本上就宣告进入停车场了。 这时候黄金的价格被拉到这种反直觉的高度，我个人觉得就是华尔街设的一道围栏。你想啊，如果你手里拿着大把美元，现在利息低了，你 想跑，但你一看外面的汇率乱跳，再看一眼黄金，涨得比火箭还快。你会想，算了，还是换成黄金吧。 ...

周三(1月28日)国际黄金价格史上首次突破 5,300 美元/盎司，此前美元在美联储货币政策决定出炉前大 幅下挫，跌至接近四年低位。截至发稿，现货黄金上涨 2.3% 至 5,305.65 美元/盎司，盘中一度触及纪 录高位 5,311.31 美元/盎司。今年以来，金价累计涨幅已超过 20%。美元方面，在接近四年低位徘徊之 际，市场正面临一场"信心危机"，并进一步加剧了美元抛售。此前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在被问及 是否认为美元贬值过多时表示，美元的价值"很好"。昨日黄金突破关键技术位，并将涨势延续至新的历 史高点。美国消费者信心数据疲软，对金价形成支撑；而在与媒体交流时，特朗普暗示自己对美元下 跌"完全不担心"，也进一步推升了行情动能。今天的焦点是 FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会） 决议，市 场普遍预计美联储将维持现状不变。关键在于鲍威尔的新闻发布会——他可能带来"意外"：宣布自己打 算继续留在美联储理事会直至其任期在 2028 年 结束。这可能被视为对美联储独立性的强力捍卫，从而 在短期内对黄金构成下行压力。同时，市场也可能迎来新任美联储主席的人选宣布。 支撑黄金的叙事仍是"去美元化"、地缘政治紧张等因素。在 ...

与此同时，全球央行的战略性购金行为，更是为金价筑牢了坚实的底部支撑，包括中国在内的多国央行 持续增持黄金，中国央行更是实现连续14个月加码，释放了积极信号，让黄金的长期需求有了稳定保 障，也让市场对金价走势充满信心。 现阶段，市场对金价走势的分歧，本质在于短期波动与长期趋势的不同判断，而主流机构的集体看多， 更印证了此轮金价上涨的周期属性。不少机构将黄金目标价上调至5700—6000美元/盎司，甚至有机构 喊出6600美元/盎司的预期，也进一步助推了市场的看多情绪。 可以说，支撑金价上涨的核心逻辑依然稳固，美元霸权松动、去美元化浪潮推进、全球地缘政治风险常 态化，这些中长期因素并未发生根本改变，而美联储的降息预期仍在，宽松的流动性环境也将继续支撑 黄金价格。 当然，承认金价的长期上涨趋势，并非意味着金价会一路单边走高，高价位下的多空博弈加剧，投机资 金的获利了结，都可能引发金价的短期回调，这是市场运行的正常规律。 连日来，"金价是否太高"成为市场热议的核心话题。 在突破5000美元/盎司重大关口后，现货黄金狂飙走势并未停歇。 1月28日，伦敦金现刷新5311美元/盎司的历史新高，开年至今已累计上涨超22%。主 ...