Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-B" for the construction industry [9] Core Insights - The fiscal policy for 2025 is expected to be more proactive, with an emphasis on increasing deficits and expanding the issuance of special bonds, which will support steady growth in infrastructure investment [10][12] - The approval of 10 new nuclear power units indicates a positive trend in the nuclear power sector, with a total investment expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [4][18] - The construction industry is anticipated to benefit from improved government investment and debt resolution measures, leading to a marginal improvement in the industry's fundamentals [3][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The political bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for proactive macro policies, including the timely introduction of incremental reserve policies and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments [3][16] - Infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, driven by increased domestic demand and government support for local government debt issuance [3][17] Market Performance - The construction sector saw a weekly increase of 0.76%, underperforming the Shenzhen Composite Index but outperforming the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index [20] - The chemical engineering sector performed notably well with a weekly increase of 5.34% [20] Company Announcements - The report highlights significant contract wins, including China Energy Construction winning a project worth approximately 5.118 billion yuan [33] - The report also notes the financial performance of various companies, with some showing substantial year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit [34][35] Key Focus Stocks - The report suggests focusing on undervalued construction state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved financial metrics and market conditions [10][11][12] - It also recommends attention to construction design firms and international engineering service providers that are expanding their overseas presence [11][12]

Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.15%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 1.34 yuan [12] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, and a net profit of 91.155 million yuan, up 62.13% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.31 yuan [12] - The company's gross margin improved due to higher margins on staple and canned products, with gross margins increasing by 1.88 and 4.02 percentage points year-on-year to 28.16% and 31.87% respectively in 2024 and Q1 2025 [12][13] - The company focused on enhancing its own brand marketing, leading to a significant increase in brand recognition and sales, with a 131% year-on-year growth in GMV during the Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 [13][15] - The company expanded its overseas market presence, entering 9 new countries in 2024, and its overseas revenue growth rate was 14.62% for the year, with further production capacity expansion planned for Canada and the US [15][16] Industry Research - The overall number of equity funds increased to 6,774 by the end of Q1 2025, with a total scale of 74,529.42 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1,005.15 billion yuan from the previous quarter [9] - The average equity fund position increased, with flexible allocation funds seeing the largest rise of 1.44 percentage points to 71.90% [9][10] - The industry saw an increase in allocation towards automotive and non-ferrous metals, while reducing exposure to electric power equipment and non-bank financials [10][11]

Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for high-quality development to address the uncertainties arising from external shocks [1] - The meeting reiterated the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations as key points for economic work [1] - Structural monetary policy is expected to play a greater role in guiding financial resources to support the "four stabilizations" [1] Group 2 - Traditional monetary policy tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions still hold significance in signaling appropriate monetary easing to stabilize market expectations [1] - The meeting proposed the creation of new structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and foreign trade stability [1] - Existing tools like the technological innovation relending and inclusive elderly care special relending are considered temporary, with expectations for the central bank to enhance support through measures like extending terms and optimizing lending conditions [1][2]

具体看，在财政政策方面，会议强调，"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"。 本报记者韩昱 温彬认为，二季度中央金融机构注资特别国债和超长期特别国债开启发行，加之专项债券"自审自发"加 速推进，新增专项债券发行也会加快。 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议强调，要加紧实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 展望未来，温彬表示，财政政策仍有加力空间，可能出台的增量政策举措包括，一是上调广义财政赤字 率目标，增发国债或特别国债；二是盘活地方债结存限额；三是加大消费补贴力度、扩大补贴范围，培 育壮大文化旅游消费、家政服务消费、数字消费、体育消费等新的消费增长点。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，"用好"体现在存量政策加速落地，今年一季度，财政发力支持经 济"开门红"，后续将加快专项债券以及超长期特别国债的发行使用，更好地促进经济增长、对冲外部扰 动。"用足"体现在"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节"，财政政策空间充 足，货币政策和财政政策的配合也将进一步加强。 从超长期特别国债角度看，今年我国拟发行超长期特别 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy, focusing on various sectors including real estate, infrastructure, consumer services, and the impact of external trade policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Risk Management**: The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the dual focus on stabilizing growth and managing risks, indicating a stronger policy response to economic challenges, particularly in service consumption and support for foreign trade enterprises [1][2][3]. 2. **Real Estate Strategy**: The meeting highlighted the importance of real estate, proposing a new development model that includes increasing the supply of high-quality housing and optimizing land acquisition policies to stabilize the market [1][19][20]. 3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Government investment is seen as a key driver, with a focus on major projects in economically advantageous regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area, as well as significant projects in western regions [1][28][29]. 4. **Service Consumption Growth**: There is a strong signal to boost income for low- and middle-income groups and develop service consumption, with expectations that service retail will account for over 40% of total retail sales by 2027 [1][37][41]. 5. **Impact of Tariffs on Textile and Apparel**: Chinese textile and apparel companies are adapting to U.S. tariff policies by relocating production to Southeast Asia, while maintaining competitiveness through price adjustments [1][42][44]. 6. **Cross-Border E-commerce**: The cross-border e-commerce market is thriving despite tariff challenges, with companies like Dunhuang.com performing well in the U.S. market [1][43]. 7. **AI and Technology in Retail**: The integration of AI technology is transforming the retail landscape, with major Chinese internet companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure and applications [1][50][51]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Land Acquisition**: The government faces challenges in land acquisition policies, including pricing and funding issues, which may hinder the execution of real estate strategies [1][22][23]. 2. **Slow Progress in Urban Village Renovation**: Urban village renovation has been slow, with various obstacles such as funding models and compensation mechanisms affecting progress [1][24]. 3. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: New consumption trends are emerging, with a focus on personalized and unique experiences driving growth in sectors like beauty care and personal grooming [1][48][49]. 4. **Investment Opportunities in Infrastructure**: The emphasis on urban renewal and infrastructure investment presents significant opportunities for growth in the construction and related sectors [1][31][32]. 5. **Potential for High-Quality Housing**: The trend towards high-quality housing is gaining momentum, with local governments implementing new standards to enhance living conditions [1][21][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities within various sectors.

Macro Economic Insights - The first quarter of 2025 showed a strong economic performance, with retail sales exceeding expectations and stable growth in passenger car sales[4] - However, the sales data for commercial housing in 30 major cities showed a month-on-month decline, indicating potential weaknesses in the investment sector[4] - Export pressures are expected to increase in the second quarter due to external uncertainties, necessitating counter-cyclical policy support[4] Fixed Income Market Outlook - The recommendation is to seek structural opportunities while maintaining a defensive stance, particularly in short-duration bonds due to stable funding conditions[5] - It is advised to avoid ultra-long-term bonds due to supply pressures, while considering 10-year government bonds for potential entry points after policy-driven fluctuations[5] - Focus on high-grade municipal bonds and central enterprise bonds in the credit sector, with caution regarding liquidity risks from increased supply in the second quarter[5] Equity Market Analysis - The equity market is experiencing a rebound, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.32% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 5.94%[12] - Despite a 16.1% decrease in average daily trading volume to 1.15 trillion yuan, there is a recovery in short-term risk appetite supported by passive and bottom-fishing funds[6] - A cautious optimism is recommended, focusing on policy-driven consumption sectors and undervalued blue-chip stocks while being wary of external tariff disruptions[6] Overseas Market Perspective - Concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and policy uncertainty are leading to increased risk aversion in dollar assets, with a potential rebound in U.S. Treasury yields expected to face challenges[7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to remain volatile, with a potential range of 4.6%-4.8% if market panic escalates[7] - The dollar index is under pressure amid weak market confidence and uncertain trade negotiations[7] Overall Asset Allocation Strategy - Current asset allocation should balance defensive positioning with structural opportunities, focusing on short-term government bonds as a defensive base[8] - In equities, three main themes are highlighted: consumption driven by marginal policy easing, export-oriented industries affected by tariff negotiations, and technology trends in AI and semiconductor sectors[8] - Caution is advised in overseas allocations, particularly in dollar assets, while emphasizing stable cash flow assets in Europe to hedge against policy uncertainties[8]

Macro Perspective - The core point of the Central Political Bureau meeting is to implement more proactive macro policies and prioritize domestic demand, confirming the approach of early policy action to address economic pressures [1][2] - The meeting emphasized the need to enhance the income of low- and middle-income groups and promote service consumption to stimulate economic growth, indicating further policies targeting deflation expectations [1][2] Strategy Perspective - The meeting recognized the economic recovery since the beginning of the year, with GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2024, but highlighted the need for further stabilization due to external shocks [2] - Future policy directions include stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a focus on proactive fiscal policies and appropriate monetary easing [2] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term government bonds is expected to accelerate, with local special bond issuance reaching approximately 24% by mid-April 2024 [2] - Monetary policy remains flexible, with potential for interest rate cuts and the introduction of new structural monetary policy tools to support consumption and innovation [2] Industry Insights - The real estate sector is expected to benefit from increased urban renewal efforts and a new development model focusing on high-quality housing supply [7] - The meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with policies aimed at optimizing the acquisition of existing properties and supporting the construction of affordable housing [7] - The construction materials sector, particularly consumer building materials, is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in new and second-hand housing transactions, as well as ongoing urban renewal policies [7] - The cultural and entertainment sectors are expected to thrive due to rising domestic demand for experiential consumption, supported by advancements in technology such as AI and virtual reality [4][7]

看好 ——政治局会议点评 建筑装饰 2025 年 04 月 27 日 "两重"建设与城市更新行动有望加快发力 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 事件： ⚫ 2025 年 4 月 25 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，会议指出：我国经济持续回升向好的 基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大。要强化底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做 好经济工作。统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩 大高水平对外开放。加大资金支持力度，扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两 重"建设。加力实施城市更新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。 点评： 行 业 及 产 业 表 1：建筑行业重点公司估值表 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 收盘价（元/股） | | EPS（元/股） | ...

文 ｜ 杨帆 明明 姜娅 于翔 玛西高娃 遥远 郑辰 任柳蓉 彭阳 联系人：陶然 ▍ 强化底线思维，因时而动用好政策工具箱。 2 0 2 5年4月政治局会议明确指出，虽然一季度中国经济开局良好，但外部冲击影响加大，下行风险显著上升，经济持续回升向好的基础还需要 进一步稳固。在此基调下，会议再次提出"强化底线思维"，对外部压力从最坏处准备，努力争取最好的结果。因此，政策将因时而动，及时尽 早推出稳就业稳经济的逆周期调节政策，巩固经济与社会稳定。 ▍ 外部方面，特朗普的关税政策仍可能视自身压力而不断反复，中美关系可能保持"区间运行"的状态，提升经济韧性、保护市场主体、团结国 际力量尤为重要。 自特朗普上任以来，其关税落地速度快，幅度高，决策具有较大随意性，远超此前外界预期。但是，其关税政策既缺乏清晰的路径计划，也没 有充分的后果研判。近期，特朗普在关税问题上的表态出现缓和迹象，主要源于一系列短中期压力，如金融市场压力、库存与通胀压力、中期 选举压力等。但是，我们判断特朗普的关税政策仍可能视自身压力而不断反复，中美关系可能保持"区间运行"的状态，在此背景下，更需要提 升经济韧性、保护市场主体、团结国际力量。本次会议 ...

4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。总体上看，会议认为今年以 来我国经济发展向好，但"持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固"。 会议直面"外部冲击影响加大"的 严峻挑战，指出"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"，以"四稳"，即稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期为 抓手，强调"以我为主"的基本政策立场，扎实推动经济高质量发展，应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定 性。 三、重点工作：稳就业、促消费、保民生 巩固内需的首要任务仍是提振消费，以"增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用"为总目标，重点在服务消费加 大资金支持。 一是再贷款政策从普惠养老扩展至服务消费，降低服务业企业的融资成本。二是"以旧换 新"政策将扩围至文体、旅游等服务消费，资金力度将视情况从全年3,000亿增至5,000-7,000亿，或提升 社零增速2pct以上。 保民生工作，就业是重中之重。就业问题，既是企业部门经营情况的直观反映，也是居民部门提振消费 能力、改善消费预期的基础。 会议全文中"稳就业"三次出现并置于"四稳"之首。各类企业面对关税冲 击的程度不同，会议有针对性地提出"提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例"。此项政策在疫情期间为就业岗 ...