2025 年 12 月 07 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 曹操出行发布 [Table_Title] Robotaxi 战略目标，2025 年前 11 个月汽车以旧换新超 1120 万辆 ——汽车行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/12/05 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | -2.0% | -1.2% | 17.4% | | 沪深 300 | -0.9% | 2.8% | 16.9% | 相关报告 《汽车行业周报：阿维塔递交港股 IPO 申请，"蔚 小理"相继披露三季度财报（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》 ——2025-12-01 《汽车行业周报：广州车展开幕，小鹏 X9 增程版/ 享界 S9 新款上市，华为举办乾崑大会（推荐）* 汽车*戴畅》——2025-11-24 《汽车行业周报：10 月乘用车批发同比增 7.5%， 上汽智己 LS9 上市（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》—— 2025-11-18 年底多家车企发布购车 ...

Group 1: Lexus LFA Concept Car - Lexus officially unveiled the new LFA concept car on December 5, marking the first revival of the LFA name since the fuel version ceased production in 2012, showcasing the design direction and technological foundation for the next-generation electric high-performance sports car [1][5] - The new LFA concept shares core technology with Toyota's GR GT and GR GT3 models but features a fully electric powertrain, with dimensions of 4690mm in length, 2040mm in width, 1195mm in height, and a wheelbase of 2725mm, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous model [1][2] - The design retains iconic elements from the original LFA, such as the L-shaped daytime running lights and a large front splitter for aerodynamic optimization, while also incorporating modern features like a lightweight high-rigidity aluminum chassis [2][5] Group 2: Beiqi (Beijing Automotive Manufacturing Plant) Ruisheng M8 - Beiqi's Ruisheng M8 was launched on December 5, offering both pure electric and range-extended versions, with a starting price of 129,800 yuan after limited-time subsidies [9] - The M8 is positioned as a mid-to-large MPV with dimensions of 5317mm in length, 1870mm in width, and 1955mm in height, featuring a wheelbase of 3200mm and available in 7-seat and 9-seat configurations [9][11] - The vehicle includes a range of high-end features such as electric adjustable second-row seats with heating, ventilation, and massage functions, and offers a maximum power of 231 horsepower from the electric motor [11][12] Group 3: Dongfeng Nissan NX8 - Dongfeng Nissan's new electric SUV, NX8, has been revealed in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's application phase, set to launch in the first half of 2026, and will offer both pure electric and range-extended power options based on an 800V platform [15][19] - The NX8 features a sleek design with a closed front panel and layered headlight groups, measuring 4870mm in length, 1920mm in width, and 1680mm in height, with a wheelbase of 2917mm [15][19] - The vehicle will support advanced intelligent driving assistance features, with power options of 292 horsepower or 340 horsepower for the pure electric version, and a 148-horsepower range extender [19][21] Group 4: Buick Zhijing Family - SAIC General Motors Buick launched its second model under the "Zhijing" brand, the Zhijing Family, on December 5, with a starting price of 439,900 yuan, featuring a 1.5T plug-in hybrid power system [24][26] - The Zhijing Family is a mid-to-large MPV with dimensions of 5260mm in length, 2000mm in width, and 1820mm in height, offering a spacious interior and advanced technology features [24][26] - The vehicle emphasizes intelligent driving capabilities, equipped with high-level driver assistance systems and a maximum power output of 180 horsepower from its hybrid powertrain [26][29]

Core Viewpoint - Cao Cao Mobility has announced an upgraded Robotaxi strategy with a ten-year goal of establishing operations in 100 cities and achieving a total transaction value of 100 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Robotaxi Strategy - The company has outlined a "three-step" strategy for Robotaxi, which includes initial technology validation and small-scale testing, transitioning to mixed operations of human and unmanned driving, and finally launching fully customized Robotaxi models for global commercial operations [1] - The CEO stated that during the Robotaxi 2.0 phase, the company will enhance the automation capabilities of large-scale fleets and integrate smart cockpit and driving technologies to achieve a closed loop of unmanned operations [1] Group 2: Green Intelligent Transit Island - The first "Green Intelligent Transit Island" has been launched, featuring functions such as automatic battery swapping, cleaning, vehicle maintenance, intelligent scheduling, and automatic settlement, along with reserved eVTOL landing pads and charging interfaces [2] - The company has established replicable construction standards for the transit island, which aims to lay the groundwork for future urban transportation infrastructure [2] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - Cao Cao Mobility has expanded its collaborative ecosystem around the Robotaxi business, partnering with various companies to integrate satellite communication, high-precision positioning technology, and low-altitude travel networks [3] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with Qianli Zhijia to accelerate the large-scale application and commercialization of intelligent driving technology [3] - Future plans include seamless connections between Robotaxi and eVTOL, supported by low-orbit satellite networks for comprehensive communication coverage and high-precision positioning data [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of timely and relevant research reports to identify investment opportunities and avoid missing out on market trends [1] - The article highlights that the penetration rate of L2++ autonomous driving technology has reached 25%, with a 100% growth in NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) vehicle models, indicating a significant market shift [1] - It mentions that institutions are focusing on three key companies in the core segments of the autonomous driving and robotics industry, which are expected to benefit from both performance and valuation boosts [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the recovery of industrial products in Europe and the U.S., driven by three factors: interest rate cuts, infrastructure investments, and supply chain reshoring [1] - It predicts that the demand for high-end machinery in the U.S. could exceed expectations by 2026, suggesting a strong market outlook [1] - Institutions are optimistic about a leading domestic high-end machinery company replicating the recovery success seen in the U.S. stock market [1]

Group 1 - The recent phase of consolidation in the artificial intelligence sector has sparked renewed discussions about whether AI has formed a bubble [1][7] - Breakthroughs in Chinese large models, represented by DeepSeek, Kimi, and Tongyi Qianwen, are significantly influencing global capital allocation towards Chinese tech assets [1][7] - DeepSeek has effectively served as a "global advertisement" for Chinese assets, enhancing attention and impacting stock performance and market expectations for domestic internet giants [1][7] Group 2 - Valuation improvement is only one aspect; the focus should also be on substantial changes in the fundamentals [2][8] - Overseas tech giants have achieved considerable revenue growth through AI, and if Chinese companies can demonstrate similar sustainable revenue growth, it could lead to fundamental improvements beyond mere valuation recovery [2][8] - The synergy between valuation enhancement and fundamental improvement will significantly boost market confidence [2][8] Group 3 - A notable trend in AI this year is the leap in multimodal content generation capabilities, which has visibly transformed industries like film and content creation [2][8] - The integration of multimodal capabilities with hardware will create new opportunities, such as AI glasses, which are expected to see significant improvements in user experience as technology advances [3][9] - The commercial viability of intelligent driving is progressing rapidly, with both domestic and international companies enhancing their autonomous driving solutions [3][9] Group 4 - Future investment opportunities are diverse and multifaceted, including expanding code generation scenarios, content creation driven by multimodal capabilities, and hardware integration [4][10] - Intelligent driving is gradually being realized, and the robotics sector is anticipated to meet higher market expectations in the coming year [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is facing a significant downturn, with 2026 expected to be one of the most challenging years in its history due to declining sales and market conditions [5][37]. Group 1: Market Performance - Retail sales of passenger cars in China saw a 15% year-on-year increase earlier this year, but growth has rapidly declined since July, with October experiencing an overall negative growth [7][39]. - In November, daily retail sales averaged 4.6 million units, down 19% year-on-year in the first week, and 6.7 million units, down 9% in the second week [8][39]. - Major automakers are struggling to meet their sales targets, with only a few smaller new players achieving their goals by November [8][40]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The automotive industry is transitioning from subsidy-driven growth to competition based on real demand and efficiency, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [40][41]. - The impact of subsidies is diminishing, with over 50% of sales in 2025 attributed to trade-in programs, highlighting a reliance on government incentives [9][41]. - The market is experiencing a "strategic waiting" phase among consumers, leading to a decline in new orders as buyers anticipate better deals [15][48]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The expected decline in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives in 2026 is anticipated to further exacerbate market challenges [15][47]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is slowing, with a notable drop in total retail volume despite high growth rates in percentage terms [15][47]. - The industry is likely to undergo a significant restructuring, with weaker companies facing exit from the market, marking a shift from scale expansion to value competition [32][65]. Group 4: Technological Developments - The automotive sector is exploring various technological advancements, including smart driving and battery innovations, but progress varies across different areas [51][54]. - The introduction of solid-state batteries and centralized computing is underway, but widespread adoption is not expected until 2026 or later [54][55]. - The smart driving sector is experiencing a technological leap, with new models expected to enhance user trust and influence purchasing decisions in 2026 [57][60].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that 2026 is expected to be a challenging year for the Chinese automotive industry, with significant declines in sales and a shift from subsidy-driven growth to competition based on real demand and efficiency [2][9]. Sales Performance - Retail sales of passenger cars in China saw a 15% year-on-year growth at the beginning of the year, but the growth rate has sharply declined since July, with October experiencing an overall negative growth [4][8]. - In November, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars were 46,000 units, down 19% year-on-year in the first week, 9% in the second week, and 7% in the third week [6]. Company Targets and Achievements - BYD aimed for 4.6 million units and achieved 4.18 million units by November, facing challenges to meet its target [7]. - SAIC Group set a target of 4.5 million units, with 4.11 million units sold by November, likely to meet its goal [7]. - Chery and Li Auto are unlikely to meet their targets, while Xiaomi and Leap Motor have already achieved theirs [11]. Market Dynamics - The automotive industry is experiencing its lowest profit margins in five years, with an average profit margin of only 3.8%, leading to significant price reductions [8]. - The market is shifting from a subsidy-driven model to one focused on genuine consumer demand and efficiency, indicating a potential industry "cold wave" in 2026 [8][41]. Subsidy Impact - The impact of subsidies is diminishing, with over 50% of sales in 2025 attributed to trade-in programs, which are now facing adjustments and reductions in many regions [10][13]. - The withdrawal of subsidies is leading to a significant drop in consumer purchasing activity, as many are adopting a "wait-and-see" approach [19][23]. Technological Developments - The article discusses various technological advancements in the automotive sector, including developments in autonomous driving and battery technology, which are seen as potential growth areas for 2026 [26][30]. - The shift towards "software-defined vehicles" and advancements in intelligent driving systems are expected to play a crucial role in the market's future [30][40]. Industry Outlook - The automotive industry is facing a structural adjustment, with weaker companies likely to exit the market as competition intensifies [47]. - The transition from scale expansion to value competition is seen as essential for the long-term health of the industry, with a focus on innovation and efficiency [47][48].

Core Insights - The autonomous driving industry in China is transitioning from a technology development phase to a commercialization phase, with significant growth expected by 2025, reaching a market size of 218 billion yuan [1] - The investment landscape is characterized by strategic partnerships between industry capital and technology breakthroughs, particularly in core hardware and software [2][3] Upstream Core Hardware and Software - The investment in core chips and sensors is driven by high R&D barriers and capital requirements, leading to strategic investments between leading tech companies and automakers [2] - Huawei's strategic investment of nearly 1.1 billion yuan in Desay SV is expected to enhance collaboration in intelligent driving domain controllers, with revenue from this segment projected to exceed 35% by 2025 [2] - Baidu's venture capital involvement in Hesai Technology aims to secure long-term supply of customized lidar, with market share in the global automotive lidar market expected to reach 28% by 2025 [2] Financial Capital Focus - Financial capital is targeting technology-scarce entities, with companies like NavInfo receiving significant investments from Tencent and Alibaba to enhance data collection capabilities [3] - Momenta has secured over 5 billion yuan in investments, reflecting the high valuation potential of its end-to-end algorithm technology despite being unprofitable [3] Perception and Decision-Making Layers - The perception layer is evolving with the adoption of multi-modal sensor fusion, leading to increased demand for high-performance lidar and cameras [4] - The shift from optional to standard lidar in L3 vehicles is driving up component value, with costs reduced by nearly 50% through partnerships like Baidu and Hesai [4] - High-precision maps are essential for L3 and above autonomous driving, with NavInfo becoming a key partner for major players like Huawei and Baidu [4] Midstream System Integration - Midstream system integrators are crucial in the supply chain, with investments characterized by mutual binding and ecosystem co-development [6][8] - Strategic investments, such as China FAW's 3.6 billion yuan investment in Zhaoyu Technology, are enhancing the integration of intelligent driving technologies into vehicle models [7] - The valuation of midstream companies is heavily influenced by their ecosystem partnerships, with Desay SV's valuation significantly higher due to collaborations with leading firms [7] Downstream Application Scenarios - Investment strategies in downstream applications are evolving based on the maturity of commercial scenarios, with fully enclosed scenarios attracting significant capital [9] - The partnership between State Energy Group and Northern Shares aims to develop electric unmanned mining trucks, projecting a 120% increase in order volume by 2025 [9] - Baidu's Apollo is expanding its Robotaxi fleet, with user payment rates expected to rise to 62% by 2025, indicating strong commercial progress [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The management of Hai Tian Rui Sheng indicated that AI Agents on smart terminals are expected to become a significant application of AI, following smart driving, which will create new data demands [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Hai Tian Rui Sheng has been a key provider of various data products and services, including intelligent voice, computer vision, and natural language processing, to ByteDance for many years [1] - The company clarified that any inquiries regarding whether its data is used in ByteDance's Doubao mobile assistant should be directed to information released by ByteDance [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The emergence of AI Agents in smart terminals is anticipated to drive new data requirements, indicating a growing trend in the AI application landscape [1]

其中，比亚迪乘用车1-11月累计销量413.06万辆，同比增长10.41%。而剔除海外销量后，比亚迪国内乘用车累计销量则是同比微降4.8%。 据中证金牛座，12月5日，比亚迪在深圳坪山举行临时股东大会。会上，比亚迪董事长兼总裁王传福表示，今年比亚迪国内市场销量出现下滑，一方面由于 比亚迪当前技术领先度不及前几年，技术成果的市场惊艳度有所下降，叠加行业同质化特征渐显，这一变化符合产品及技术发展的周期性规律。另一方面， 低温充电速度慢等用户需求痛点，也亟待通过技术突破予以解决。 "我之所以说目前技术不够领先，是因为后面还有重磅技术发布，但目前不方便透露。"王传福说，比亚迪的核心竞争力在于技术，公司麾下12万工程师团 队，是公司后续技术攻坚、重塑领先优势的关键底气与支撑。 最新销量数据显示，比亚迪11月汽车销量480186辆，去年同期506804辆；今年1-11月，汽车销量418万辆，同比增长11.3%。 在技术层面，今年2月10日，比亚迪在智能化战略发布会上推出21款智驾版车型。王传福彼时表示，2025年将是"智能驾驶普及元年"，预计未来2-3年内，智 能驾驶将如同安全带或安全气囊一样成为标配。 3月份，比亚迪在 ...