Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed chairperson selection may be announced soon, which will determine market expectations for next year's interest rate cuts. Tight liquidity in the US at the end of the year is negative for gold, which is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - The Fed's December meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts, but the easing cycle continues. The market expects a pause in January, so silver may reach a phased top and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. - Macro - policies will maintain a "double - loose" tone in 2026, which boosts market sentiment and supports steel prices. However, the steel market is in a weak balance, and short - term steel prices may oscillate narrowly [4]. - Iron ore supply is relatively stable, and demand is gradually stabilizing. With port inventories accumulating and strong upstream - downstream gaming, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - The manganese - silicon market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with upstream inventory pressure capping prices. In the medium term, prices will oscillate around cost [5]. - The overall supply of pigs is abundant, and short - term pig prices will continue to rebound and adjust [5]. - Malaysian palm oil exports to the US are strong. Market expectations of reduced production and import profit inversion support palm oil prices, which are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - The spot price of soybean meal has a clear bottom support, while the main contract is suppressed by supply - demand expectations. The 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as they seek a new balance between "real - world pressure" and "long - term narratives" [8]. - Oil prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors and should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - PTA supply has not fully recovered, and there is no inventory - building pressure in January. A long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term, considering factors such as production and demand [11]. - Long - term government bonds should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and the relationship between the stock and bond markets [11]. - Methanol supply and demand remain weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with prices expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to factors such as supply, demand, and cost [14]. 3. Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed chairperson news and year - end liquidity affect it. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - **Silver**: Fed meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts. It may reach a phased top, and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. Metals - **Steel**: Macro - policies support prices, but the market is in a weak balance, and short - term prices will oscillate narrowly [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is stable, demand is stabilizing, and prices will oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: Supply - demand is loose, and prices will oscillate around cost in the medium term [5]. - **Copper**: Prices will maintain a high - level oscillation as they balance short - term and long - term factors [8]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Overall supply is abundant, and short - term prices will rebound and adjust [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Exports to the US are strong, and prices will oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Spot has bottom support, and the 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by supply - demand and geopolitics, prices should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - **PTA**: Supply has not fully recovered, and a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices will oscillate in the short term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with short - term price oscillation expected [13]. - **PVC**: Prices will oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to supply, demand, and cost factors [14]. Bonds - **Long - term Government Bonds**: An oscillatory mindset is recommended, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and market relationships [11].

12月30日午间，在岸人民币对美元升破7.0关口，创下2023年5月以来新高。中银证券全球首席经济学家 管涛认为，推动近期人民币汇率走强主要有两方面因素。一是美联储降息预期增强，驱动美元指数回 落。11月下旬至今，美元指数下跌约2.0%。二是今年以来，面对复杂的外部环境，中国经济展现出较 强韧性，近期国际货币基金组织、世界银行以及高盛等多家外资机构为中国经济投了"信任票"，纷纷上 调中国经济增速预测值，外资配置人民币资产兴趣增强。 对于汇率后市走势，专家表示，市场和经营 主体需要理性看待。未来影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多，人民币走势仍存在较大的不确定性。 ...

Group 1 - The onshore RMB against the USD has strengthened, breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time since May 2023, with a rise from approximately 7.35 to around 7.01 since April 2025 [1] - The offshore RMB also broke the 7.0 mark on December 25, marking the first occurrence since September 2024 [1] - Factors driving the recent strength of the RMB include increased expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar index by about 2.0% since late November, and a resilient Chinese economy that has prompted foreign institutions to raise their growth forecasts for China [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, with a focus on preventing excessive fluctuations [2] - The People's Bank of China highlighted the need for a dual-directional fluctuation and increased elasticity of the RMB exchange rate as a norm, aiming to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations [2]

Market Overview - International gold is experiencing a volatile recovery, influenced by the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts in January and profit-taking activities [1] - Global central banks are expected to purchase over 1200 tons of gold by 2025, marking a record high for the same period, with China increasing its holdings for 13 consecutive months, providing long-term support [1] - The decline in U.S. inflation and a weak labor market have led to market expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, supporting the medium to long-term outlook for gold [1] Technical Analysis - Daily level: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with MACD showing a golden cross above the zero line, but red bars are decreasing, and RSI is in an overbought pullback state, indicating a need to be cautious of a potential pullback in gold prices [1] - 4-hour level: The Bollinger Bands are also narrowing, with MACD showing a death cross, green bars decreasing, and RSI in an oversold rebound state, suggesting a need to be cautious of a potential short-term rebound in gold prices [1] - 1-hour level: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with MACD showing a golden cross below the zero line and RSI in an oversold rebound state, indicating a need to be cautious of a potential short-term rebound in gold prices [1] Trading Strategy - For bullish positions: Aggressive traders can rely on a support level of $4150 per ounce, entering long positions around $4165-$4175 after stabilization; conservative traders can rely on a support level of $4000 per ounce, entering long positions around $4025-$4035 [1] - For bearish positions: Aggressive traders can rely on a resistance level of $4400 per ounce, entering short positions around $4395-$4385 after facing resistance; conservative traders can rely on a resistance level of $4550 per ounce, entering short positions around $4545-$4535 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index strategy, some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. With the growth of aerospace, satellite, robot, and battery sectors, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market, and it is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index before the New Year's Day. For the treasury bond strategy, it is recommended to conduct band operations in the volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, due to increased short - term fluctuations, it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. For various agricultural, livestock, energy - chemical, black - building materials, and non - ferrous metal products, corresponding trading strategies and risk - avoidance measures are provided according to their respective market conditions [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices in the growth style have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market from corporate to household and then to securities accounts. It is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - related indices as the main targets before New Year's Day and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4] Treasury Bond - The fourth - quarter macroeconomic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the policy focus. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures maintained a volatile pattern in December and are expected to continue after the New Year [9] Precious Metals - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in January next year is below 20%. The CME Group raised the performance margin for gold, silver, and other metal futures, triggering a short - term sharp correction in precious metals. It is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [13] Agricultural and Livestock Products Three Oils and Two Meals - Hold existing long positions in the 2605 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but do not chase the high. Be wary of the potential negative impact of the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory after the festival. Hold long positions in the two meals at low levels. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [16][21] Sugar and Jujube - For sugar, the domestic sugar market is currently dull. During the festival, focus on the trend of ICE raw sugar. It is advisable to wait and see, and reduce long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options. For jujube, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging [24] Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton may adjust in the short term, but the bottom support is strong. Apple's futures price is likely to remain in a high - level range - bound due to the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate. Logs are expected to maintain a low - level range - bound, and it is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to capital trends [17][26][27] Corn, Pig, and Egg - For corn, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and hold a light or empty position during the festival. Pig prices are seasonally strong in the short term, and it is necessary to manage positions during the festival. Egg prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the scale of chicken culling in January and manage positions during the festival [18][29][30][32] Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The EIA inventory increased. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela are rising. The market believes that there is a chance for the Russia - Ukraine situation to ease, and there are concerns about long - term oversupply. It is recommended to hold a light position and be wary of the escalation of geopolitical risks [38] Lithium Carbonate - Some positive material factories are jointly overhauling, but the production of some links is decreasing. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has corrected before the festival, and the exchange has introduced restrictive measures. It is necessary to pay attention to position management and the support level of 115,000 yuan/ton [40] Methanol - The port inventory is high, but the port market is stronger than the inland market. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline significantly in mid - to - late January. The main contract has strong support below and is limited by polyolefin prices above. It is recommended to continue holding long positions and pay attention to port inventory reduction and Iranian plant operations [43] Urea - The inventory pressure of upstream factories has been relieved. Some urea plants are reducing production due to environmental protection. The spring plowing season is coming. The short - term price is slightly strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [46] Bottle Chips - The production and supply of bottle chips have changed little, and downstream demand is gradually improving. The short - term price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is advisable to take a bullish view. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [48] Pure Benzene - The arbitrage window between Asia and America has opened, and the port is slightly accumulating inventory, but the speed has slowed down. The downstream demand has declined, and the short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on dips and pay attention to port arrivals and the transaction price in the US dollar pure - benzene market. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [51] Rubber System - For natural rubber, the upward momentum has weakened, the port inventory is accumulating, and some downstream tire enterprises have maintenance plans. It is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging. For synthetic rubber, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and the cost is supportive. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or use options for hedging [54] Black and Building Materials Steel - The supply and demand of the five major steel products have decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the winter storage market has not started yet. The inventory may accumulate later. The market is expected to be volatile during the festival. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [61] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are expected to change little during the festival. The daily average pig iron production has increased slightly, the arrival volume has decreased, and the shipping volume has increased seasonally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the shipping situation of foreign mines. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [64] Coking Coal and Coke - The coal mine production is stable, and the import volume is high. The downstream steel mill profitability has stopped falling, and the pig iron production has stabilized. The traditional winter storage demand is not obvious, but the rigid demand before the Spring Festival may support the price. The fourth round of coke price cuts may be implemented on January 1. The double - coke market is expected to be range - bound before and after the festival, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [67] Ferroalloys - The supply of manganese silicon is relatively loose, and the supply of silicon iron is in a tight - balance state. Due to the winter storage expectation, the double - silicon may have a concentrated replenishment after the festival. The market sentiment is positive, and the market performance is strong. It is recommended to hold a light position and not hold short positions during the festival [72] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract is near the technical resistance level and close to the overbought state. Combined with year - end capital repatriation and profit - taking, short - term fluctuations will intensify [74][79] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum is in a game between cost support and inventory pressure. It has no basis for a deep decline but lacks demand - driven upward momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival [75][81] Alumina - The alumina price is in a historical low range, but lacks clear demand - driven rebound momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the downstream resumption rhythm and inventory depletion speed [76][85] Caustic Soda - The current price is at a historical low. It is not recommended to chase short positions unilaterally. Pay attention to the maintenance announcements of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu and the procurement dynamics of alumina factories before the festival [76][89]

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 12月30日，ATFX：白银结束了一个多月的疯涨模式。11月24日开始，白银从49.9美元开始，一路顺畅 上涨，期间极少出现阴线（日K线），每日的涨幅在1~3美金之间。12月26日，即上周五，白银从72.8 美元涨至最高79.3美元，收盘在79.14美元，全天涨幅超6美元，多头力量极端放大。 白银的特征是波动率显著高于黄金，这导致白银经常在疯涨之后出现暴跌。本周一，白银再次验证了这 一规律。白银CFD开盘价格80.05美元，盘中冲高至83.91美元，刷新历史最高纪录，随后开启暴跌模 式，最低点70.50美元，全天振幅高达13美元。 疯涨后暴跌，未来可能出现"踩踏式"出逃行情。过去一个月，国际市场并没有发生足以促使白银翻倍上 涨的热点事件。白银市场持续放大的波动率，并没有宏观因素支撑，无法吸引足够的长期资金入场。对 于中短线资金来说，白银已经在一个月左右出现极端的涨幅，极易引发争先恐后的获利了结，进而导致 行情迅速回落。 ▲ATFX图 长期来看，黄金和白银回落之后，仍有继续上涨的动力。美联储存在强烈的降息预期，2026年可能像 2025年那样继续降息三次。尤其是美联储主席鲍威尔卸任， ...

英镑/美元 英镑昨日震荡盘整，日线小幅收涨，现汇价交投于1.3500附近。除空头回补对汇价构成了一定的支撑 外，美元指数在疲软经济数据和美联储降息预期挥之不去的打压下走软对英镑构成了一定的支撑。此 外，对英国央行降息接近尾声的预期也对汇价构成了一定的支撑。今日关注1.3600附近的压力情况，下 方支撑在1.3400附近。 责任编辑：陈平 12月30日，根据全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）周一公布的数据，11月美国成屋待完成销售（Pending Home Sales）指数环比上升3.3%至79.2，创下2023年2月以来新高，升幅明显高于经济学家普遍预期。 该指数衡量的是已签署购房合同但尚未完成交割的房屋数量。媒体对经济学家的调查显示，本次涨幅仅 低于一项预测，表明市场回暖具有一定广泛性。 NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun在声明中表示，"购房 者动能正在增强"，主要得益于负担能力改善以及可选择房源较去年增多。数据显示，二手房签约量已 连续四个月上升，这一连涨周期与新冠疫情期间楼市火热阶段的表现相当。 另外，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普暗示，他已有非常偏好的下一任美联储主席人选，但并不急于宣布。同 时特朗普还表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold, silver, and platinum, experienced significant price increases at the end of 2025, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank gold purchases [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 30, 2025, spot gold approached historical highs, opening at $4550.00 per ounce before dropping to around $4469 [1]. - Gold prices rose by 1.2% last Friday, reaching $4531.87 per ounce, with February futures closing at $4552.70, reflecting strong market momentum [3]. - Silver surpassed $80, platinum reached record highs, and palladium broke the $2000 mark, indicating a robust performance across precious metals [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, with potential rate cuts in mid-2026, has fueled market optimism [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3]. - Central banks are expected to purchase an average of 70 tons of gold monthly in 2026, significantly above historical averages, providing strong support for gold prices [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by Q4 2026, with a possibility of exceeding $5000 in the first half of the year [4]. - The first quarter of 2026 may see a price pullback to $4200, followed by a gradual recovery to $4630 before reaching the projected highs [4]. - Investors are advised to monitor Federal Reserve policy meetings and developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, as these will directly impact gold price trends [4].

Core Event - The gold price experienced a record single-day drop, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao Gold seeing prices fall by 42-53 CNY per gram, with Chow Sang Sang's price dropping from 1406 CNY to 1353 CNY per gram, marking the largest single-day decline [3][4] - A 36-gram gold bracelet lost approximately 1500 CNY in value overnight, highlighting the unprecedented nature of this price drop [3] Causes of the Drop - Multiple negative factors converged, including the CME Group raising gold futures margin by 10% and silver by 13.6%, increasing trading costs and forcing leveraged funds to exit [5] - Year-end profit-taking by investors and thin liquidity due to the holiday season amplified price volatility [6] - A temporary easing of geopolitical risks, such as progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7] - Fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a strengthening dollar further pressured gold prices [8] Market Reaction - Consumer behavior showed a split, with some taking advantage of lower prices to purchase gold bracelets and wedding jewelry, while others viewed current prices as still too high, expressing a willingness to buy only if prices dropped by 600 CNY [9] - Brand gold jewelry carries a premium of up to 30%, leading to significant losses upon resale due to full craftsmanship fees being deducted [10] Future Outlook - Long-term support for gold remains intact due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, global central bank gold purchases potentially exceeding 850 tons in 2025, and a trend towards de-dollarization [12] - However, there is significant short-term downside pressure, with technical indicators showing overbought conditions and potential for a 10%-15% price correction, with forecasts suggesting a dip to around 3800 USD per ounce [13]

周二亚洲时段，黄金现货价格（XAU/USD）小幅回升至4350美元上方。 此前，金价在周一遭遇大幅抛售，单日跌幅达4.5%，创下去年10月以来的最大单日下跌。 这一波动主要源于芝加哥商品交易所（CME）宣布提高黄金与白银期货的保证金要求，从而触发了市场的大规模获利了结与投资组合再平衡。 短期波动并未削弱金价的中期支撑。 市场对美联储或在2026年开启降息周期的预期仍在升温，利率下行有助于降低持有黄金的机会成本。此外，全球经济前景的不确定性与地缘政治紧张局势， 也为黄金作为传统避险资产提供了持续的需求基础。 CME 上调黄金、白银等品种保证金要求以防范交割违约风险，短期内推高持仓成本并导致部分资金撤离。 美国 11 月成屋签约销售指数环比增长 3.3% 远超预期，显现房地产市场回暖态势，经济韧性或对市场关于降息时点的预期产生影响。 当前市场对美联储降息预期仍存分歧，据 CME FedWatch 工具数据，市场预计美联储 1 月降息概率仅 16.1%，反映出交易者对短期政策转向仍持谨慎态度。 技术分析： 日线图显示，金价目前仍守稳于100日指数移动平均线（EMA）上方，整体结构尚未破坏。布林带呈现扩张态势，表明波 ...