【12月16日市场分析师前瞻美国11月非农数据】12月16日，市场分析师前瞻美国11月非农，市场预期就 业数据疲软，约为5万左右，失业率或升至4.5%。若数据出现下行意外，可能使美联储下一次降息预期 提前，进而支撑金价。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by the market's increasing expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold reaching a recent high of approximately $4315 [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year last week, continuing a trend towards a more accommodative policy stance, which has significantly increased the relative attractiveness of non-yielding gold [2]. - The latest economic projections from the Federal Reserve convey a cautious tone, suggesting only one potential 25 basis point rate cut by the end of 2026, while financial markets are pricing in at least two more cuts this year, creating a disparity that supports gold prices [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Impact - Key macroeconomic data, including non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and purchasing managers' index, have been delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, which could lead to increased market volatility in the short term [2]. - If employment and consumption data indicate economic slowdown, it will reinforce expectations for rate cuts, potentially driving gold prices higher [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors and Gold Demand - Geopolitical factors supporting gold have weakened, as positive signals from Ukraine peace negotiations have alleviated concerns about prolonged conflict, reducing gold's traditional safe-haven demand [2]. - The interplay between accommodative monetary policy and diminishing safe-haven attributes suggests that gold prices will be more directly influenced by U.S. macroeconomic data in the short term [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices are currently in a clear upward trend, with a mid-term bullish structure intact, as prices remain above key moving averages, indicating strong market momentum [3]. - The $4280 level serves as a primary support for short-term pullbacks, while the $4200 level is a critical defense area for bulls, suggesting that as long as prices hold above these levels, the bullish trend is likely to continue [3]. - The first resistance level for gold is around $4350, and if a breakout occurs, it could lead to testing the psychological $4400 level, which is near the upper boundary of the upward channel [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical events and upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report [1][2][3] - Gold prices experienced volatility, reaching a high of approximately $4350 per ounce before retreating to around $4304.91 due to reduced risk appetite following discussions between U.S. officials and Ukraine's President Zelensky [1][2] - The market is anticipating the release of key U.S. employment data, which is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy, with expectations of two rate cuts before September next year [2][3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is likely to remain in a range-bound trading pattern, with significant resistance around $4320 and support levels at $4260-4250 [3][5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest selling on rebounds near $4318-4320 and buying on dips around $4255-4260, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [6] - The overall sentiment in the gold market is cautious, with geopolitical developments and economic indicators expected to drive short-term price movements [2][3][5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-16 美联储降息预期出现反复，基本金属或 转为震荡整固 有⾊观点：美联储降息预期出现反复，基本⾦属或转为震荡整固 交易逻辑：12月美联储利率决议符合预期，美联储调降明年降息次数，但 将购买国债，实际动作较为积极，并且鲍威尔排除了明年加息的可能性； 12月10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，国 内消费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面，但上周末前美联储 官员回怼特朗普政府，投资者对美联储降息预期出现反复。原料端延续偏 紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱， 12月初汽车销售延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1-2月排产预 计改善，基本金属现实供需改善放缓，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期， 供应扰动担忧继续支撑价格，中央经济工作会议定调积极，需求预期改善 有望提振基本金属，但高价对消费抑制及美联储降息预期反复对价格进一 步涨势构成约束，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量 刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期， 看好铜 ...

Market Overview - US stock indices opened higher on December 15, with the Dow Jones up 0.33%, S&P 500 up 0.48%, and Nasdaq up 0.58%, but later all indices erased their initial gains [1] - As of 23:27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 48,341.39, down 116.66 points or 0.24%, Nasdaq at 23,048.60, down 146.57 points or 0.63%, and S&P 500 at 6,806.35, down 21.06 points or 0.31% [2] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla initially rising 4.7% and Nvidia up 1.5% before both lost their gains [2] - Chip stocks continued to decline, with Oracle and Broadcom down nearly 4%, and iRobot's stock plummeting 69% after announcing bankruptcy [2] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell nearly 1.7%, with Baidu down over 4%, Alibaba down over 3%, and Li Auto down over 2% [3] - Multiple Chinese concept stocks experienced significant declines, with some dropping over 10%, including Sihong International which fell over 30% [4][5] Precious Metals Market - There was a significant influx of capital into safe-haven assets, pushing spot gold close to historical highs, with silver rising 3% [6] - Platinum futures prices broke above $1,800 per ounce, with a nearly 100% increase year-to-date, significantly outpacing gold's 65% rise [7][8] Economic Indicators - The US Labor Statistics Bureau is set to release the November employment report and part of October's data, with economists predicting a non-farm payroll increase of 50,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.4% [11]

Market Overview - The US stock market opened higher but later erased gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.33%, S&P 500 up 0.48%, and Nasdaq up 0.58% before declining [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Tesla initially rising 4.7% and Nvidia up 1.5%, but both later lost their gains [1] - Chip stocks continued to decline, with Oracle and Broadcom down nearly 4%, and iRobot's stock plummeting 69% after announcing bankruptcy [1] Chinese Concept Stocks - Most Chinese concept stocks experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down nearly 1.7%, Baidu down over 4%, Alibaba down over 3%, and Li Auto down over 2% [1] - Several Chinese concept stocks accelerated their drop, with some falling over 10%, and Sihong International leading the decline with a drop of over 30% [2] Precious Metals and Commodities - There was a surge in safe-haven assets, pushing spot gold close to historical highs, with silver rising 3% to a peak of $63.96 per ounce [3] - Platinum and palladium also saw significant increases, with palladium soaring over 6% and platinum rising over 3%, reaching the highest level since September 2011 [3] - NYMEX platinum futures broke above $1800 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 100%, significantly outpacing gold's 65% rise [3] Oil and Cryptocurrency - WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices fell, reported at $56.91 and $60.64 per barrel, respectively [4] - The cryptocurrency market faced a sharp decline, with Bitcoin dropping 2.61% below $87,000, and Ethereum falling below $3,000, alongside widespread losses in other cryptocurrencies [4] - Over the past 24 hours, the number of liquidations in the crypto market reached 140,000 [4]

Market Overview - US stock indices opened higher on December 15, with the Dow Jones up 0.33%, S&P 500 up 0.48%, and Nasdaq up 0.58%, but later all indices experienced a decline, erasing initial gains [1] - As of 23:27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 48,341.39, down 116.66 points (-0.24%), Nasdaq at 23,048.60, down 146.57 points (-0.63%), and S&P 500 at 6,806.35, down 21.06 points (-0.31%) [2] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla initially rising 4.7% and Nvidia up 1.5% before both lost their gains [2] - Chip stocks continued to decline, with Oracle and Broadcom both down nearly 4%, and iRobot's stock plummeting 69% after announcing bankruptcy [2] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell nearly 1.7%, with Baidu down over 4%, Alibaba down over 3%, and Li Auto down over 2% [3] - Several Chinese concept stocks experienced significant declines, with many dropping over 10%, and Sihong International leading the drop at over 30% [4][5] Commodity Market - Precious metals saw a collective rise, with gold nearing historical highs and silver increasing by 3%, reaching a peak of $63.96 per ounce [6] - Platinum futures prices broke above $1,800 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 100%, significantly outpacing gold's 65% rise [7] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies faced a sharp decline, with Bitcoin dropping 2.61% below $87,000 and Ethereum falling below $3,000, leading to a total of 140,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours [8][9] Economic Indicators - The US Labor Statistics Bureau is set to release the November employment report and part of October's data, with economists predicting a non-farm employment increase of 50,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.4% [10]

宏观流动性宽松预期叠加供需失衡等多因素叠加，引爆了沉寂已久的铂族金属行情。 周一（12月15日），广期所铂金期货主力合约盘中触及7%涨停板，收盘报482.4元/克，创下上市以来首次涨停纪录；钯金主力合约 同步走强，收盘涨4.73%报407.6元/克。 与此同时，交投情绪显著升温，铂金主力合约成交量环比激增237%至41,832手，持仓量环比增加60%；钯金成交量更是环比暴涨 498%。 国际市场方面，纽约铂金期货上涨超2%，报1805美元/盎司，纽约钯金期货涨4%至1610.50美元/盎司。 | 细约把金 | 1610.50 | +67.80 | +4.39% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | USPA | 21:29:48 | | | | 细约铂金 | 1805.00 | +42.50 | +2.41% | | USPL | 21:29:50 | | | 分析人士指出，这一罕见行情背后是宏观宽松预期、现货供应紧张、需求韧性与贵金属板块共振的多重因素叠加。 （广期所铂金主力期货分时图） （广期所钯金主力期货分时图） 宏观层面，美元走弱与美联储降息预期升温——特别是市场对沃什（Kevi ...

金价连续第五个交易日走高，不断逼近历史新高，此时投资者的关注焦点集中在科技股估值争议以及美 国借贷成本前景两大议题上。 黄金价格一度上涨 1.2%，创下自 10 月冲击历史高点以来最长的连涨纪录。上周五，华尔街交易员对年 内涨幅居前的人工智能概念股获利了结，引发市场大范围避险情绪，黄金与白银价格均从当日高点出现 突然回落。黄金虽常被视为对冲股市下行风险的工具，但近几个月来，其与股市的短期相关性有所上 升。 上周五，美国前总统唐纳德・特朗普在接受采访时，呼吁美联储激进降息，并表示期望下一任美联储主 席就货币政策事宜与其协商。他同时提名凯文・哈西特与凯文・沃什为接替杰罗姆・鲍威尔的两大热门 人选。 今年以来，金价累计涨幅已达 65%，银价更是实现翻倍上涨，两种金属均有望创下自 1979 年以来的最 佳年度表现。世界黄金协会的数据显示，除 5 月外，黄金 ETF（交易所交易基金）的持仓量在今年其 余月份均保持增长态势。 高盛集团分析师莉娜・托马斯等人在报告中称："我们依然预计，在美联储宽松政策的背景下，叠加各 国央行持续购金以及私人投资者的资金流入，到 2026 年底，金价将攀升至每盎司 4900 美元。" 他们指 ...

投资咨询系列报告 投资咨询系列报告 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 4329.80 | 20.50 | 0.48% | 102.10 | 2.42% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 4346.95 | 116.60 | 2.76% | 103.95 | 2.45% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 983.16 | 12.50 | 1.29% | 24.46 | 2.55% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 977.06 | 12.26 | 1.27% | 23.63 | 2.48% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -4.73 | 7.61 | -62% | 2.54 | -35% ...