今日金价延续反弹态势，国内品牌金店黄金零售价格于12月15日普遍上调。其中老庙黄金上涨7元/克，以1352元/克的报价 领跑全场，成为今日最高价金店；而上海中国黄金则以1245元/克的报价处于低位，仍为最低价金店，二者价差拉大至107 元/克。 上周五金价上涨主要是疲软的美国经济数据强化了市场对美联储的降息预期，外加央行持续购金，紧张的地缘政治局势支 撑金价。不过部分投资者在金价冲高后，选择提前获利了结，限制了当日的金价涨幅。 目前在美联储未来降息问题上，有多位美联储官员（古尔斯比、施密德、哈玛克）发表鹰派言论，核心逻辑均是对通胀风 险的担忧超过对就业市场的支持。直接影响了市场对美联储未来降息路径的预期，进而作用于金价。 对于金价走势，Walsh Trading总监Sean Lusk认为，当前黄金的上涨并非短期投机所致，其背后是央行增储、养老金及投资 基金长期配置等结构性买盘的强力推动。，因此即便出现因价格上涨而引发的短线获利了结，也不会破坏整体技术形态上 的牛市格局。 | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年12月15日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's interest rate strategists predict that the U.S. Treasury yield curve will steepen due to short-term bonds, with short-term rates declining faster than long-term rates in a "bullish steepening" scenario [1][2]. Group 1 - The increase in unemployment numbers or a continued rebound in labor force participation raises the risk of rising unemployment rates, leading to a bullish steepening outlook for the 2026 market [1][2]. - The market is believed to have already priced in the Federal Reserve's expectations for further rate cuts in the second half of this year, which will stabilize the middle part of the yield curve [1][2]. - Under strong economic conditions, a dovish Federal Reserve, and increasing supply concerns, the yield curve is expected to steepen further [1][2].

黄金价格（XAU/USD）在欧洲市场周一早盘交易时段持续上涨，触及4,325美元水平，创下近七周以来的高点。 不过，市场对美联储政策路径的预期仍存在变量。克利夫兰联储主席BethHammack近期指出，美联储应维持足够高的利率以持续压制通胀。芝加哥联储主席 AustanGoolsbee也提到，因前期政府停摆导致关键经济数据延迟发布，等待更多信息后再调整利率是更审慎的选择。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周一的讲话，将为市场提供更多政策线索。 这一走势延续了近期贵金属市场的上行趋势，主要受到市场对美联储明年可能调整货币政策的预期影响。 黄金作为无息资产，其价格与市场利率水平存在直接关联。利率降低会减少投资者持有黄金的机会成本，从而提升这种贵金属的配置吸引力。 美联储上周宣布了2025年第三次也是最后一次降息，将利率下调25个基点至3.50%至3.75%的目标区间。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，当前利率水平让央 行处于有利位置，未来将保持耐心观察经济形势。这一表态进一步强化了市场对宽松周期延续的判断。 若动能延续，金价可能冲击4381美元的历史高位及4400美元心理关口。下行方向，12月12日 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese yuan strengthened significantly, reaching around 7.05 against the US dollar, marking its strongest level since October 8, 2024 [1] - The onshore yuan's midpoint was reported at 7.0656, down by 18 points [1] - The year-to-date increase in the yuan's midpoint has exceeded 1000 basis points [6] Group 2 - The US dollar index experienced significant volatility, with a rapid rise followed by a pullback [3] - There is a changing expectation regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a 24.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in January and a 75.6% probability of maintaining the current rate [6] - Recent economic data indicates resilience in the domestic economy, with November's national economic performance showing stability and progress [6] Group 3 - There is an acceleration of foreign capital inflow into China, with reports from the IMF, World Bank, and other financial institutions raising their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy [6] - Despite complex internal and external environments, the resilience of the Chinese economy and the effectiveness of policies have gained widespread recognition, leading to increased interest from overseas investors [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ongoing gold purchases by global central banks, and geopolitical risks [1][3] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,353.36 per ounce, marking a 0.60% increase, and are projected to rise over 50% throughout 2025 [1][4] - Analysts from institutions like Goldman Sachs remain optimistic about the future of gold, although they caution against potential fluctuations in policy expectations and profit-taking risks [1][3] Group 2 - The current geopolitical climate, particularly the perceived instability in Western alliances and the shift in U.S. foreign policy under Trump, has increased the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - The recent volatility in gold prices, including a sharp drop after reaching $4,354, indicates a potential for market fluctuations, suggesting a need for careful trading strategies [4] - Key resistance levels for gold prices are identified around $4,330 to $4,332, which will be crucial for determining future price movements [4]

记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨曾静娇 今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅超过1000个基点。 消息面上， 美联储降息预期改变。 据财联社援引CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储明年1月降息25个基 点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率为75.6%。 国内经济有韧性。 12月15日国内最新经济数据出炉，11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳 中有进发展态势。（ 详情 ） 海外资金加速流入中国。 近期，国际货币基金组织（IMF）、世界银行及多家全球顶尖金融机 构接连发布报告，上调对中国经济增长的预期。尽管面临复杂内外环境，中国经济的韧性与政 策成效获得广泛认可，海外资金对中国市场的关注度与配置兴趣正显著回升。（ 详情 ） （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 12月15日，人民币走强，截至12:00左右，在岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.05附近，为2024年10 月8日以来的最强水平；离岸人民币击穿7.05，达7.04686。 12月15日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0656，下调18点。 | W | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | | --- | --- | --- | | | USDCNY ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold T+D opened at 976.00 yuan/gram and reached a high of 979.32 yuan/gram, closing at 974.12 yuan/gram with an increase of 1.29% [1] - The technical analysis indicates that Shanghai gold T+D has successfully broken through the key resistance level of 950 yuan/gram, maintaining an upward channel on the daily chart [2] - The market sentiment is bullish, with a moderate increase in trading volume, but caution is advised regarding potential profit-taking risks and fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve policies [2] Group 2 - President Trump expressed a strong desire for interest rates to drop to 1% or lower within a year, significantly below the current Federal Reserve policy rate range [1] - Trump attributed the current high inflation to the previous administration and predicted that the price situation in the U.S. will improve as the election approaches [1] - The midterm elections are approaching, and Trump remains cautious about whether current economic policies will help the Republican Party win [1]

Group 1 - The price of paper gold is currently trading around 981.21 yuan per gram, with a 0.70% increase, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - Paper gold is influenced by global monetary policy, inflation, and geopolitical situations, with lower interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve reducing holding costs and benefiting prices [1][3] - A weaker US dollar enhances the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars, while high inflation strengthens gold's anti-inflation properties, and geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine situation, increase demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 2 - The daily chart for paper gold shows a continuation of a bullish pattern, with prices remaining above 970 yuan per gram and short-term moving averages diverging upwards [3] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, with red bars gradually increasing, indicating sustained upward momentum [3] - Key resistance levels are noted at 980-985 yuan, with significant support at 960 yuan; a failure to hold above this support may lead to short-term fluctuations [3]

分析指出，此次暴跌的核心诱因是 美联储降息预期骤然降温。尽管上周美联储宣布降息，但主席鲍威尔对2026年1月是否继续降息态度模糊，强调政策 将"高度依赖数据"，导致市场对宽松周期的乐观情绪迅速逆转。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，明年1月维持利率不变的概率已升至75.6%，远高于降息预 期。 2025年12月15日，全球加密货币市场遭遇"黑色星期一"——比特币价格盘中一度失守88000美元大关，最低下探至87967.8美元，24小时内跌幅达2.48%。以 太坊、SOL、XRP、狗狗币、ADA等主流币种全线重挫，跌幅普遍在2%至3.7%之间，市场情绪急转直下，恐慌指数飙升。 据Coinglass最新数据，过去24小时内， 全网合约爆仓金额高达2.7亿美元，爆仓人数突破11.57万，其中多头头寸爆仓超2.3亿美元，成为本轮下跌的主要牺牲 品。最大单笔爆仓发生在Hyperliquid平台的以太坊合约，单笔损失达485.42万美元，令人瞠目。 当潮水退去，裸泳者不止一个，而是一群。 （本文基于CNMO、Coinglass及主流财经媒体公开数据整理。加密货币投资风险极高，本文不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，入市须谨慎。） ...

2025.12.15-12.19 01 P A R T 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在横盘阶段，当前可能处于趋势开始阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金主力合约2602先抑后扬，最终强势突破，收盘创近月新高，主 要受美联储强化降息预期，导致美元走弱，同时资金与机构持仓大幅流 入，形成共振。但短期涨幅较大，需警惕获利了结带来的回调风险，并 持续关注后续经济数据对政策预期的修正。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2602短期或延续高位震荡，上方压力位960－970元/克， 下方支撑位920－930元/克，建议以观望为主。 本周策略建议 沪金合约2602谨慎看多，上方压力位985－1000元/克，下方支撑 位935－950元/克，建议逢低买入。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 [图片] 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 1500 2000 250 ...