贵金属数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 入 開 市 市 需 有 课 风 Re | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/5/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 日期 内外盘金 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 2025/5/29 格厨房 | 3272. 64 | 33. 16 | 3296. 60 | 33. 30 | 764. 32 | 8224. 00 | 761.03 | 8188.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | 2 ...

沪铜日评20250530:国内铜冶炼厂6月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | | 变量名称 | 2025-05-29 | 2025-05-28 | 2025-05-21 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78130 | 77870 | 78100 | 260.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 80153 | 73407 | 71129 | 6, 746. 00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 174757 | 169462 | 163320 | 5, 295.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 32165 | 34861 | 41218 | -2, 696. 00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78485 | 78510 | 78460 | -25.00 | | | | 沪铜基差 | 355 | 640 | 360 | -285.00 | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货开贴水 | 65 | 120 | 185 | ...

规格 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8157元/千克 市场价 上海 上海华通有色金属现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8190元/千克 市场价 上海 长江有色金属现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8187元/千克 市场价 上海 上海白银现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8207元/千克 市场价 上海 上海白银 数据显示，5月29日上海白银现货价格报价8187.00元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（8224.00元/千克）贴 水37.00元/千克。 （5月29日）全国白银价格一览表 5月29日，上期所沪银期货仓单录得1035919千克，较上一交易日增加29669千克；最近一周，沪银期货 仓单累计增加86722千克，增加幅度为9.14%；最近一个月，沪银期货仓单累计增加104595千克，增加 幅度为11.23%。 5月28日芝加哥商业交易所（CME）：白银期货成交量为45860手，较上个交易日减少21727手。未平仓 合约为148156手，较上个交易日增加601手。 分析观点： 宁证期货研 ...

周三晚间，美股集体高开后出现跳水走势。 截至发稿，美股三大指数均已翻绿。 中概股涨跌不一。科技龙头普遍下跌，比亚迪股份跌超4%，拼多多、小米集团跌超3%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | | --- | --- | --- | | 比亚迪股份-ADR | 102.400 | -4.59% | | 拼多多 | 99.360 | -3.52% | | 小米集团-ADR | 32.570 | -3.09% | | 腾讯控股-ADR | 63.900 | -2.11% | | 京东集团 | 31.895 | -1.98% | | 阿里巴巴 | 117.200 | -1.94% | | 美团-ADR | 33.040 | -1.58% | | 网易 | 124.115 | -0.14% | 热门个股方面，Spero Therapeutics盘初飙涨超244%，一度触发临时停牌。消息面上，此前该公司及其合作伙伴葛兰素史克宣布，他们用于治疗尿路感染 的口服药物tebipenem HBr在一项关键的3期临床试验中达到了主要目标。 美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，将在未来看到更多贸易协议，甚至可能就在本周； 对某些国 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Fluctuations - On May 27, 2025, international gold prices dropped significantly, with London spot gold falling below $3,300 per ounce, closing at $3,300.46, a daily decline of 1.25% [1] - COMEX gold futures also fell by 1.27% to $3,299.7 per ounce, influenced by reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a rebound in the dollar index, and easing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Price Adjustments - Domestic gold jewelry prices have been adjusted downwards in response to the international gold price decline, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook reducing their gold prices to 986 CNY per gram, a decrease of 10-29 CNY per gram [3] - Lao Miao's gold price has dropped to 997 CNY per gram, while the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market offers a competitive price of 756 CNY per gram with low processing fees [3] Group 3: Core Reasons for Price Volatility - Market sentiment and policy impacts include cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials indicating no imminent rate cuts, which diminishes gold's appeal [4] - Progress in US-EU trade negotiations and the postponement of tariff increases by Trump have alleviated market tensions [4] - Technical adjustments are evident, with gold prices having risen over 20% since mid-April, leading to profit-taking [4] - Changes in consumer behavior show a shift towards high-value channels and lighter wedding jewelry designs, with average weights decreasing from 40 grams to 30 grams [4] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Future Trends - Investor sentiment is polarized, with some leveraged traders facing losses exceeding 470,000 CNY in a single day, while long-term investors remain optimistic about gold's inflation-hedging properties [5] - China's gold imports surged by 73% month-on-month in April to 127.5 tons [5] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected around the $3,300 per ounce support level, with potential volatility of 5%-10% if the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance in June [5] - Morgan Stanley forecasts gold prices to oscillate between $3,000 and $3,350 [5] - Long-term support factors include ongoing global central bank gold purchases and a weakening trend in dollar credit, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could challenge $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [5] Group 5: Consumption and Investment Recommendations - For essential consumption, it is advisable to prioritize bank gold bars (with a premium of about 3%) or wholesale market options to avoid high processing fees associated with branded gold jewelry [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Sino-US mutual tariff relaxation guides import and export expectations. The suspension of underground mining at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and the low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, combined with the approaching traditional consumption peak season, may cause copper prices to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 27, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,210 yuan, down 60 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 67,182 lots, a decrease of 10,339 lots; open interest was 127,084 lots, a decrease of 17,857 lots; and inventory was 34,961 tons, an increase of 2,128 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,515 yuan, down 75 yuan; the Shanghai copper basis was 305 yuan, down 15 yuan; and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3-month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,596 US dollars, down 18 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased; and the spreads of different contracts changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.745 US dollars, up 0.07 US dollars; total inventory was 178,963 tons, an increase of 4,356 tons [2]. Industry News - **M&A Information**: South African listed company Harmony Gold Mining's Australian subsidiary will acquire BC Copper for approximately 1.84 billion rand (equivalent to 1.03 billion US dollars), aiming to enhance free cash flow and improve solvency, subject to regulatory approvals [2]. - **Macro News**: The US Congress reached a budget resolution in April, including tax cuts and debt ceiling increases. The US manufacturing and services PMIs were higher than expected, while the consumer - end inflation CPI annual rate in April was lower than expected, which may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December [2]. Upstream Situation - **Mine Production**: The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine under Zijin Mining suspended underground mining due to multiple mine tremors; the sulfide copper ore project of Vediktepe Polymetallic Mine under ACC Metals is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2008; several copper mines have expansion or production plans, which may affect the production and import of copper concentrates [3][4]. - **Smelting**: Some smelters have production disruptions or planned production, which may affect the production and import of crude copper and electrolytic copper. For example, the PKSBK copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and the Maxi copper smelter in India may start production around mid - 2025 [4]. Downstream Situation - The high copper price has affected the new orders of copper products, causing the capacity utilization rates of copper rods, copper wires and cables, and other products to decline or be expected to decline [4]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (74,000 - 76,000 and 78,500 - 80,000), London copper (9,000 - 9,300 and 9,600 - 9,800), and US copper (4.3 - 4.5 and 4.8 - 5.0) [4].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据新华社消息，来自伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯 社27日报道，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃日前表示，伊朗在任何 情况下都不会放弃铀浓缩权利；据以色列媒体报道，以色列总 理内塔尼亚胡和美国总统特朗普就如何应对伊朗进行了激烈的 电话交谈；今天晚间将召开欧佩克+会议。评：前期OPEC+增产 落实情况小于预期，原油短期压力不大。中期看，当前进入 OPEC+7月政策窗口期，关注政策情况。短期短线参与。 【短评-黄金】美联储威廉姆斯，4月份关税事件显示市场 功能失调，保持通胀预期稳固至关重要。美国储备水平仍然明 显充裕，当遭受巨大冲击时，能通过储备金获得缓冲是非常好 的。评：市场预期美国6月份90%以上不会降息，美国政府宣称 美欧关税谈判取得重大进展，美元指数反弹，黄金承压。黄金 中期依然高位震荡对待，关注美国关税政策及地缘情况。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月28日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F30 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a pullback due to resistance at the $3500 level, with expectations of a potential rebound after testing support levels [1][3][8]. Price Movement - On May 27, gold opened at $3346.13 per ounce, reached a high of $3349.64, and then fell to a low of $3285.47 before closing at $3300.50, marking a daily decline of $45.63 or 1.36% [1]. - The price is expected to maintain a range between $2900 and $3500, with potential upward movement if it breaks through the downward trend line [10][12]. Market Influences - The rebound of the US dollar index has created downward pressure on gold prices, while easing trade tensions have also contributed to this trend [3][8]. - Positive signals regarding tariffs from the Trump administration and potential new sanctions against Russia have created mixed influences on gold prices [3][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the May average, suggesting a bullish trend despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has rebounded above the 5-week moving average, indicating strengthening bullish momentum [12]. - The daily chart highlights that gold is near the downward trend pressure around $3500, with a focus on whether it can maintain above recent lows for further bullish opportunities [14]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3290 and $3272, while resistance levels are at $3320 and $3340 [15]. - For silver, support is noted at $33.10 and $32.90, with resistance at $33.60 and $33.80 [15].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a continuous decline, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar and easing trade tensions, raising questions about whether this is a short-term fluctuation or a trend reversal, and whether expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts can provide relief [1] Group 1 - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to a strengthening US dollar [1] - Easing trade tensions are contributing to the current market dynamics affecting gold prices [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the current situation represents a temporary fluctuation or a more significant trend reversal in the gold market [1] Group 2 - The potential impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations on gold prices is being closely monitored [1]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-橡胶】供应方面：泰国原料胶水价格62.75泰铢/公 斤，杯胶价格52.8泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格13100元/ 吨，制浓乳胶价格14100元/吨；ANRPC最新发布的2025年4月报 告预测，4月全球天胶产量料降1.4%至76.7万吨，较上月下降 3.9%；泰国前4个月天然橡胶、混合胶合计出口157.3万吨，同 比增13.5%；合计出口中国100.5万吨，同比增38%。评：橡胶阶 段性原料抗跌，原因是泰国延迟开割，近期东南亚雨水较多， 也影响了开割进度，我国上周去库。预期弱，下游消费表现为 轮胎开工率虽然环比上升，个别企业为控制库存增长，排产小 幅下调，限制了整体产能利用率提升幅度，周内企业出货表现 未见明显好转，全、半钢胎库存延续增势。震荡偏弱思路。 【短评-白银】明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，由于 贸易政策、移民政策及财政政策等多方面的不确定性，宽松政 策暂停期可能更长，美联储需等待形势更明朗后才能做出决 策。评：美联储官员认为未来降息依然充满不确定性。美元指 数走低，利多黄金，避险情绪再度升温，基本面利空白银。白 银中期宽幅震荡思路为宜。关注白银与黄金是否走 ...