行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 15 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 | | 国内贵金属行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前收盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 持仓量 | 增仓量 | | 上海金指 | 959.18 | 971.93 | 957.06 | 971.87 | 1.32% | 348,594 | 18778 | | 上海银指 | 14,489 | 15,026 | 14,489 | 14,894 | 2. ...

特别声明：以上文章内容仅代表作者本人观点，不代表新浪网观点或立场。如有关于作品内容、版权或其它问 题请于作品发表后的30日内与新浪网联系。 美国这次遇到中国突然意识到打不动了 美国这次遇到中国突然意识到打不动了 美国这次遇到中国突然意识到打不动了#烽火问鼎计划##全网热点共创计划##一分钟视频创作季# ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that a century belonging to China may be emerging, highlighting the clear trajectory of the US-China rivalry and warning that the US risks missing its last opportunity to compete with China, potentially leading to a decline similar to Detroit's [1][3]. Group 1: US-China Rivalry - The US has employed various strategies against China, including tariffs, chip restrictions, and financial sanctions, indicating a comprehensive blockade rather than ordinary competition [3][5]. - The underlying logic of this rivalry extends beyond trade tariffs and sanctions, focusing on the US's "invisible tax" on global supply chains [5][7]. Group 2: China's Industrial Growth - China's manufacturing output reached 35% of the global total in 2023, surpassing the combined output of the G7 countries, driven by an extreme level of supply chain collaboration [13][33]. - The US's imports from China decreased by 8.7% in the first three quarters, but this led to a 12% increase in domestic production costs, illustrating the economic interdependence that complicates the notion of complete decoupling [13][33]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - China possesses a complete industrial system with capabilities across all categories, allowing for a self-sufficient production loop from basic goods to advanced technologies [21][20]. - The cost of electricity in China is significantly lower than in the US and Europe, with an average price of 0.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour compared to 1.25 yuan and 2.48 yuan respectively, creating a substantial competitive edge [23][25]. Group 4: Future Projections - By 2030, China's manufacturing share of the global market is expected to reach 40%, while the combined share of the US, Japan, and Germany will be less than half of China's [33]. - The article emphasizes that external pressures cannot hinder China's inherent growth potential, given its complete industrial chain, low energy costs, and vast consumer market [33].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints - LME copper warrant cancellation triggers the expectation of a soft squeeze, there is a shortage of copper inventory in non - US regions. With the Fed likely to cut interest rates in December and China's Politburo meeting approaching, copper has hit a record high. It is recommended to move the stop - profit for long positions and try to go long on dips. In the long term, copper is still favored [6]. - In the short term, copper has refreshed its historical high again, with increased high - level volatility. Long - position holders have accumulated large profits. It is advisable to gradually move the stop - profit, avoid blindly chasing the high, and beware of the risk of a high - level pullback after the macro positive factors are exhausted. For industrial selling hedging, the hedging ratio should be flexibly reduced, and inventory should be sold off quickly. For industrial buying hedging, positions should be built on dips according to production orders. In the long - term, due to copper being an important strategic resource in the China - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, with the tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand, copper is still promising. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is 【88000, 98000】 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 【11000, 12000】 US dollars/ton [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoint Summary - The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates in December, the US dollar is weakening, and copper prices are soaring. The US economic data shows signs of weakness, such as the decline in the ISM manufacturing PMI, the reduction in private - sector employment in the ADP data, and the cooling of the labor market. The Fed's interest - rate cut probability is high, and the dollar index has declined [8][10]. - The pre - heating of the December Politburo meeting in China has increased market risk appetite. The macro - economy shows signs of improvement in foreign demand, moderate recovery in domestic demand, and stable policy expectations. The manufacturing PMI has slightly increased, and price indicators have shown a mild recovery. Policy support has continued, and the market is looking forward to the Politburo meeting's economic tone for the next year [11][13]. - In the long run, copper is positively correlated with the Nasdaq index, gold, and crude oil, and negatively correlated with US Treasury yields. In 2025, the gold - copper ratio has been rising, and copper still has room for a supplementary increase [16]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis US Macroeconomy - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, lower than the previous value and the expected value, and has been below the 50 boom - bust line for nine consecutive months. The ADP "small non - farm" data in December showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023. The labor market has cooled, with the unemployment rate of 20 - 24 - year - old college graduates rising to 8.5%. The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is considered "almost certain", and the probability of cumulative interest - rate cuts in January 2026 is 64%. The dollar index fell 0.38% on a weekly basis as of December 4 [10]. Chinese Macroeconomy - China's macro - economy in December showed a trend of improving foreign demand, moderate domestic - demand recovery, and stable policy expectations. The manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.2%, and the new export - order index rebounded by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%. The CPI turned positive year - on - year in October, the core CPI rose to 1.2%, and the PPI turned positive month - on - month. Fiscal and industrial policies continued to be strong, and the market's risk appetite increased. The market is looking forward to the Politburo meeting in mid - December to set the economic tone for the next year [13]. 3. Supply - and - Demand Analysis Supply - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In 2025, many large - scale copper mines globally had unexpected production cuts and shutdowns. The global copper concentrate supply is in a continuous tight situation. The CSPT group reached a consensus on reducing the production load of copper mines, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing vicious competition. The copper concentrate TC has been running at a low level, with the latest at - 42.7 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decline of 0.55 US dollars/ton. The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in 2026 [46][55]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In November, the domestic copper - smelting start - up rate was 82.29%, and the electrolytic copper output increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month to 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The import of refined copper in October decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in the domestic market is tight, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has widened to 5,510 yuan/ton as of December 5, the highest since May 2024 [47]. Demand - **Positive Factors**: Green copper demand is booming, with the average copper consumption in renewable energy systems being 8 - 12 times that of traditional power - generation systems. In October, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 19.3% year - on - year. The year - end domestic power - grid bidding work is actively carried out, and power investment maintains resilience. The market expects the US power demand to grow by 60% in 2026, which will stimulate overseas copper demand [88]. - **Negative Factors**: High copper prices have a significant inhibitory effect on demand. The consumption has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of mid - and downstream enterprises have declined. The real - estate industry at the terminal is still in a difficult situation. The COMEX copper inventory has accumulated to a high level, forming a potential "inventory dam" [25]. 4. Summary and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in December is nearly 90%, and the market expects continuous monetary easing in 2026. China's manufacturing PMI has improved, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting, the market's expectation of policy stimulus has increased. The monetary policies of China and the US may resonate, releasing more market liquidity. Copper's strategic value and price center will rise steadily [109]. - **Fundamentals**: The global copper - concentrate supply remains tight, and the CSPT group's anti - involution measures have been implemented. The international refined - copper market is expected to have a supply gap in 2026. The domestic electrolytic copper output in November was slightly higher than expected, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has widened [110]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory and SHFE copper inventory have decreased, while LME copper inventory is at a certain level, and COMEX copper inventory has accumulated. The large increase in LME copper warrant cancellations has triggered concerns about a soft squeeze in non - US copper inventory. The US may introduce copper - import trade - restriction measures, and the US has become a "black hole" for global copper inventory [111]. - **Terminal Demand**: Although the traditional real - estate and infrastructure sectors are weak, the demand for copper in green fields such as photovoltaics, wind power, and electric vehicles is strong, providing structural support. The US power - grid reconstruction and the construction of data - centers are expected to stimulate overseas copper demand [111]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to move the stop - profit for long positions and avoid chasing the high. Industrial selling - hedging should reduce the hedging ratio, and industrial buying - hedging should build positions on dips. In the long term, copper is still favored. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is 【88000, 98000】 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 【11000, 12000】 US dollars/ton [112].

Group 1 - The core message of the article highlights the increasing interest of Western leaders, particularly from Europe, in engaging with China amid escalating US-China tensions, signaling a strategic pivot towards China for economic cooperation and geopolitical stability [1][3][5] - The trade volume between China and France reached $79.58 billion, with a 12% growth in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating China's significant market appeal and the importance of bilateral economic ties [3][11] - Macron's visit to China is seen as an effort to establish a strategic partnership and secure economic cooperation ahead of Trump's planned visit, reflecting Europe's urgency to find a way forward amidst US pressure [5][13][15] Group 2 - The article discusses the adverse effects of Trump's "America First" policy on Europe, including a 20% tariff imposed on the EU, which has exacerbated economic challenges, particularly in Germany and France [7][9] - Macron's diplomatic efforts include a 23-page cooperation agenda that encompasses Airbus aircraft procurement and joint production of solar components, showcasing a proactive approach to strengthen ties with China [9][11] - The establishment of a carbon neutrality cooperation center and agreements on offshore wind projects illustrate the deepening collaboration in emerging sectors, which is more appealing to Europe than mere trade [13][23] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that European companies are increasingly recognizing the necessity of collaborating with China for survival, as evidenced by their participation in trade fairs despite US pressures [17][18] - The deepening industrial ties, such as the increased investment by French semiconductor companies in China, highlight the impracticality of decoupling from the Chinese market [19][21] - Macron's visit is framed as a strategic move to secure long-term development partnerships with China, moving beyond short-term economic gains to establish a shared future [21][25]

Group 1 - The core driver of the current A-share market is a systematic increase in risk appetite, stemming from a profound "reconstruction" of the global landscape, influenced by the U.S.-China rivalry and the shift towards a "China model" focusing on supply chain security, technology, manufacturing, and military industries [3] - The "Fifteen Five" strategy emphasizes proactive policy measures and strategic opportunities, contrasting with the previous "Fourteen Five" period, indicating a stronger focus on national strength and institutional expectations in capital market pricing [3][4] - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in managing expectations and addressing local government debt risks, with a projected "slow bull" market characterized by steady index growth and accelerated market rotation [4] Group 2 - Key time points for the U.S. Federal Reserve and U.S.-China relations include potential policy shifts following the mid-2026 Federal Reserve chair transition and significant diplomatic engagements, which could influence market risk appetite [4] - The 2026 market is anticipated to experience structural rotation, driven by the global reconstruction and the initiation of the "Fifteen Five" plan, with a shift in capital market pricing logic from short-term profits to long-term national strength and institutional expectations [6][7] - The report identifies four main investment themes for 2026: technology innovation focusing on AI, upstream resource strategic positioning, new consumption opportunities, and safe asset allocations amid geopolitical uncertainties [8][9]

德指责做出了回应。中国主动承担大国责任，承诺在2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和，并且 在落实这些承诺方面做出了显著成绩。而与之对比，特朗普政府曾两次退出《巴黎协定》，并且鼓吹化 石能源，表现出的态度与中国形成了鲜明对比。 **三、美国的至暗时刻** 中国连战连胜，美国陷入至暗时刻，中美博弈已发生重大转变，联合国安理会也上演了一幕精彩的对 决。时代真的发生了变化？ 新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长、美国教授希睿德曾说过：这个世界上， 除了中美以外，其他都是小国。中美两国作为全球最重要的双边关系，虽然军事冲突的可能性较小，毕 竟没有人愿意两败俱伤，但这并不意味着两国会保持长久的和平共处。 在经济、科技等领域，中美的 对抗越来越激烈。例如，美国的全球加税政策和中国在稀土资源上的反击，就是两国博弈的代表性事 件。自特朗普上台以来，许多人开始意识到，中国在不流血的情况下，已经连续取得了两场翻身仗，中 美之间的实力对比和国际影响力正在悄然发生深刻变化。 **一、火烧连营——中国的巧妙反击战术** 今年9月29日，美国商务部发布了一项新的出口管制措施， 规定：任何被列入美国实体清单的公司，其持股50%以上的子公司 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted optimism for the A-share market, predicting a significant influx of global capital and a bull market ahead [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis Framework - Li Chao emphasized a four-tier analytical framework for understanding China's economy, which includes US-China relations, social stability, structural transformation, and economic growth [3] - The framework suggests that maintaining economic growth is contingent upon addressing the first three layers, with a focus on leveraging export advantages to sustain growth [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The primary investment focus is on sectors benefiting from declining interest rates, specifically technology stocks and dividend stocks [4] - Technology stocks are expected to see increased valuations as investors become more willing to price future cash flows favorably in a low-interest environment [4] - Dividend stocks are positioned as attractive alternatives in a low-yield bond market, providing stability and potential for value re-evaluation [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Li Chao expressed a positive outlook for the capital market in 2026, driven by liquidity and structural opportunities, urging investors to adopt an optimistic stance [5]

表面上中美斗得很凶，实际上是在一起牵制俄欧联盟，给自己争取发展时间。你可能会问，中美是怎么 默契合作的？为什么俄欧联盟没能成型呢？ 很多人对中美关系存在认知误区。单线叙事让人们形成两种极端看法：要么认为中美最终会全面开战， 要么幻想两国联手可以主宰世界。但现实比这些想法复杂得多。中美隔着浩瀚太平洋，合作成本高、效 率低。物流链条长，资源供给难以互补。美国虽然油气充足，但铁矿、钴矿等工业关键矿产依然大量依 赖进口，加上跨洋运输的成本和贸易壁垒，所谓中美联手1+1=2的效果其实微乎其微。 大家好，我是小格！最近不少人都在热议中美博弈，有的说新冷战要来了，有的在猜谁会赢，但其实很 多人没看清背后的逻辑。 我研究国际格局多年发现，中美的竞争并不是零和游戏，倒更像是一种大国之间的默契平衡。核心很简 单，中美真正担心的不是彼此，而是俄罗斯和欧洲联合起来。两者地理相邻，资源互补，高科技能力 强，如果真结盟，不论是美元霸权还是全球产业链，中美都会被迫退到边缘。 完全独立的大陆级联盟，内部贸易可绕开美元，美国的大西洋影响力会直接受冲击，中美在全球价值链 中的地位将被边缘化，这就是为什么俄欧联盟比中美冲突更危险。 更关键的是，大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.9% in the penultimate week of November, marking the largest weekly decline of the year, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of the bull market [1]. Market Phases - The bull market typically progresses through three phases: 1. **Policy Bottom**: Characterized by the government easing monetary policy and introducing favorable measures, despite poor economic data and corporate earnings. This phase sees high volatility as the market reacts to policy changes without fundamental support [2]. 2. **Fundamental Bottom**: In this phase, the effects of policies begin to positively impact the real economy, leading to improved corporate earnings and a simultaneous rise in valuations, resulting in a strong upward market trend [2]. 3. **Sentiment Top**: This phase occurs when economic growth slows, corporate earnings stagnate, and policies may tighten, yet market enthusiasm drives valuations to bubble levels [2]. Current Market Stage - The current market is likely at the end of the first phase and the beginning of the second phase, indicated by increasing activity in M1 and a narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI, which are positive signals. However, the improvement in the real economy is not yet comprehensive, with only "point-like" improvements observed in certain sectors like technology, while traditional industries and real estate remain weak [3]. - The upward potential in the second phase is significant, and despite the index reaching 3,800 points, the overall market performance this year has been strong, with positive expectations for the next year [3]. Investment Opportunities - The market has shown significant divergence this year, with sectors related to technology and external demand performing well, while those tied to consumption and domestic demand have lagged. This disparity in investment returns highlights the importance of sector selection [3]. - Investors are encouraged to either continuously learn and adapt to market changes or to focus on their areas of expertise, as both strategies can yield substantial returns over time [3][4].