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美关税重创日本汽车产业 6月对美出口额锐减
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-08-18 12:21
Group 1 - The recent macroeconomic and industry data from Japan indicates that the U.S. government's tariff policy has severely impacted the Japanese automotive industry, hindering Japan's economic recovery [1][3] - Japan's Ministry of Finance reported that exports to the U.S. have declined for three consecutive months from April to June, with the rate of decline increasing [1] - The tariff rate on Japanese imported cars was raised from 2.5% to 27.5% on April 3, leading to a significant reduction in Japan's automotive exports to the U.S., which fell by 26.7% in June [3] Group 2 - The Kyushu region experienced the largest decline in automotive exports, with export volume down by 67.8% and export value down by 76.3% [3] - The automotive industry is a core sector of the Japanese economy, and the decline in exports will adversely affect related parts industries and regional economies [3] - The Japanese Cabinet Office revised its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 (April 2025 to March 2026) down from 1.2% to 0.7% due to the negative impact of U.S. tariffs [3]
钢材、铁矿石日报:关税扰动发酵,钢矿震荡回落-20250818
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 10:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.88%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. In the current situation of stable supply and weak demand growth, the fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken. During the off - season, steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relative positives are the significant increase in costs and the limited real - world contradictions under low inventory, which limit the downward space. In the short term, the price will continue to show a weakly oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][37]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.20%, also showing increasing volume and decreasing positions. At present, the supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil has improved, but demand concerns remain, and supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relative positives are cost increases and production restrictions. With the game of multiple and short factors, the price of hot - rolled coil is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4][38]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.64%, showing an increase in both volume and positions. Currently, the demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply of ore has increased, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff list. The expanded tariff list took effect on August 18, 2025 [6]. - In July 2025, the wholesale sales of national passenger vehicle manufacturers reached 2.22 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. From January to July, the wholesale sales were 15.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.4%. The wholesale growth rate of independent car companies was 20% year - on - year, while that of luxury cars decreased by 16% year - on - year [7]. - In July 2025, China exported 6.13 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year increase of 19.0%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 42.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In July, the export of steel bars was 1.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 77.2%, and the cumulative export from January to July was 10.62 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.4% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,280 and 3,320 respectively, with the national average price at 3,374, showing a decrease of 10 and 0 respectively compared to the previous period, and the national average decreased by 10. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,450 and 3,410 respectively, with the national average price at 3,501, showing a decrease of 10 and 10 respectively compared to the previous period, and the national average increased by 3 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 770, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous period, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 778, remaining unchanged [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,155, a decrease of 0.88%, with a trading volume of 1,316,477 and an open interest of 1,609,893, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3,419, a decrease of 0.20%, with a trading volume of 503,900 and an open interest of 1,202,731, also showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract was 772.0, a decrease of 0.64%, with a trading volume of 281,507 and an open interest of 448,903, showing an increase in both volume and positions [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, iron ore inventories at 45 ports, and inventories of 247 steel mills [13][18][20]. - It also includes charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][32][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The production of construction steel mills is stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Demand has weakened, and during the off - season, prices are still under pressure. However, cost increases and low inventory limit the downward space, so the short - term trend will continue to be weakly oscillating [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has improved, but demand concerns remain, and supply is expected to increase. With the game of multiple and short factors, the price is expected to continue to oscillate [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. Although demand resilience supports the price, supply has increased, and the upward driving force is not strong, so the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [38].
观车 · 论势 || 跨国车企的利润去哪儿了
Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang· 2025-08-18 10:12
Core Viewpoint - The global automotive industry is experiencing a significant decline in profits across major multinational companies, attributed to various external and internal factors, including new U.S. tariff policies and the transition to electric vehicles [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Major automotive companies reported either revenue growth without profit increase or declines in both revenue and profit, with substantial profit drops noted [1]. - German automakers saw drastic profit reductions: Volkswagen Group's operating profit fell by 33%, Mercedes-Benz's net profit dropped by 56%, and BMW's net profit decreased by 29% [1]. - U.S. automakers also faced challenges, with General Motors' net profit down 21%, Ford's net profit shrinking from $3.2 billion to $400 million, and Stellantis reporting a net loss of €2.256 billion [1]. - Japanese automakers like Toyota and Honda reported net profit declines of 37% and 50%, respectively, while Nissan continued to incur losses [1]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - The new U.S. tariff policies have significantly impacted all automotive companies, leading to increased costs and reduced profit margins [2]. - Toyota reported a loss of ¥450 billion due to tariffs in Q2, with an estimated total loss of ¥1.4 trillion for the fiscal year [2]. - Hyundai indicated a loss of ₩828 billion in Q2 due to tariffs, with expectations of greater impacts in Q3 [2]. - Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz also cited tariff impacts on their profit declines, with Volkswagen reporting a loss of €1.3 billion due to tariffs [2]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Many automotive companies are adjusting their strategies in response to tariff pressures, including shifting production to the U.S. to mitigate costs, although this may lead to increased production expenses [3]. - The transition to electric vehicles presents structural challenges, as current electric vehicle sales do not yet match the profitability of traditional fuel vehicles, necessitating high R&D expenditures [3]. - Volkswagen's electric vehicle sales grew by 47% in H1, but profitability remains lower than that of fuel vehicles, impacting overall profit levels [3]. - Companies like Stellantis and Nissan are undergoing leadership changes and implementing cost-cutting measures, including workforce reductions and factory closures, to address financial pressures [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The collective profit pressure on global automotive companies results from a combination of external factors like tariffs and internal challenges such as market positioning and strategic adjustments [4]. - The industry faces the critical task of balancing profitability from traditional vehicles while investing in electric vehicle development amidst changing global trade environments and geopolitical factors [4].
特朗普想用关税还债?恐怕连利息都还不起!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-18 10:09
Core Points - President Trump's dual plan for tariff revenue includes repaying the $37 trillion national debt and potentially distributing part of the revenue to the public [1] - Current tariff revenue is insufficient to cover interest payments on the national debt, with July interest payments totaling $60.95 billion compared to tariff revenue of $29.6 billion [2] - Economic optimism exists regarding the ability to manage debt through growth, but warnings from key financial figures indicate potential risks [2][5] Group 1 - Trump's tariffs are expected to generate significant revenue, but experts argue that this revenue will not substantially reduce the national debt [4][5] - The White House claims that the debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased since Trump's presidency, attributing this to growth policies and tariff revenue [4] - Economic analysts express skepticism about the feasibility of using tariff revenue to repay debt, emphasizing the need for substantial annual borrowing [5] Group 2 - Concerns about the U.S. debt situation are heightened by the reliance on foreign investors, with approximately 26% of U.S. debt held by them [6] - Market confidence in U.S. debt remains stable, as evidenced by consistent bond yields, despite skepticism about unconventional debt management strategies [6] - The debate continues over who ultimately bears the cost of tariffs, with differing views on whether foreign entities or American consumers will shoulder the burden [7] Group 3 - The ongoing debt issue is characterized as a "coward's game," with successive governments increasing debt without implementing unpopular policies to address it [7] - A report from the Conference Board suggests that a debt crisis is imminent, proposing a six-year plan to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio significantly [8]
玉马科技(300993) - 2025年8月16日投资者关系活动记录表
2025-08-18 08:18
Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 364 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.89% [2] - Net profit was 74.08 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.13%, primarily due to increased stock incentive expenses and reduced interest income and exchange gains [3] Market Trends - U.S. orders have seen slight growth despite the impact of reciprocal tariff policies, which have created uncertainty affecting local customer inventory and new product introductions [4] - The European market remains stable with overall order growth, and the company plans to continue expanding in this region [5] Overseas Expansion - The company has conducted preliminary research in Southeast Asia and established a subsidiary in Singapore; however, plans for a production base in Vietnam are currently on hold due to changing tariff policies [6] E-commerce Strategy - The company is developing its cross-border e-commerce business through strategic partnerships, focusing on providing fabric and product support to enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness [7] Raw Material Prices - Prices for key raw materials, including polyester fiber and PVC, have been declining since early 2025 and are expected to remain stable in the short term [8] Product Sales Trends - Sales of the "Dream Curtain" product have slightly declined due to supply-demand imbalances and increased price competition, but the company remains optimistic about its potential in overseas markets [9] Industry Outlook - The company maintains a high net profit margin, attributed to a diversified product line and broad market presence, while many small and medium-sized enterprises face significant pressure and may resort to harmful pricing strategies [10] - Overall market demand is trending upward, with diverse applications across traditional home, engineering, and transportation sectors, despite pressures in the domestic market [10]
【环球财经】日媒:特朗普关税政策令上市公司业绩承压
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 06:33
Core Insights - The article highlights the significant impact of Trump's tariff policies on the earnings of major Japanese listed companies, with a projected total reduction in operating profit of 3.5 trillion yen for 42 companies in the fiscal year 2025-2026 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Impact - The operating profit of the 42 listed companies is expected to decrease by 20% compared to the previous fiscal year, amounting to approximately 12.1 trillion yen, whereas without the tariffs, profits could have reached 15.6 trillion yen, reflecting a potential increase of 3% [1] - The estimated impact of the tariffs on corporate earnings has increased by 900 billion yen from initial estimates, now totaling 3.5 trillion yen [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The majority of the companies experiencing profit declines are exporters, particularly in the automotive sector, with significant losses also observed in electronics and machinery [1] - Toyota, as the largest global automaker, anticipates a profit reduction of about 1.4 trillion yen due to the tariffs, while Mazda expects a decrease of 233.3 billion yen [1] - The combined profit loss for the seven major automakers is estimated at 2.7 trillion yen, which is 1 trillion yen higher than earlier projections and accounts for nearly 80% of the total profit loss among the 42 companies [1] Group 3: Corporate Responses - The number of companies reporting profit losses has increased by six, indicating that the burden on businesses is substantial, and merely passing on costs is insufficient to cover these significant losses [2]
集运日报:现货指数跌势开始,盘面提前兑现现货降价,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250818
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 06:02
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4]. - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position due to large fluctuations [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the callback to stabilize [4]. Summary by Related Information Shipping Indexes - On August 15, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1]. - On August 15, the SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5 [2]. - In the US in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2]. Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [3]. - On August 15, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1373.6, with a gain of 1.10%, a trading volume of 31,100 lots, and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely [3]. Shipping Market Forecast - German container shipping company Hapag - Lloyd expects global container shipping volume to increase by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The expected global ship delivery volume is 3.1 million TEUs in 2024, 1.8 million TEUs in 2025, and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. The current global ship orders are 9.3 million TEUs, accounting for 29% of the global fleet [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].
海外CXO/生命科学上游1H25业绩剖析:关税影响小于预期,临床CRO订单意外增长,普遍上调业绩指引
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-08-18 05:32
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Thermo Fisher, while other companies such as Danaher, Samsung Bio, and Lonza remain unrated [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the impact of tariffs on the life sciences upstream sector is less than expected, leading to an overall upward revision of performance guidance for 2025 by most companies [4][29]. - Clinical CRO orders have unexpectedly increased, driven by strong biotech client demand, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [4][31]. - The revenue recovery is outpacing profit recovery, with cost control pressures increasing due to external macroeconomic challenges [6][14]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In 1H25, the performance of overseas CXO and life sciences upstream companies remained under pressure, but a sequential improvement was observed in 2Q25, with 7 out of 10 tracked companies showing revenue growth compared to 1Q25 [6][31]. - The median and average revenue growth rates for 2Q25 were +4.3% and +7.1%, respectively, compared to +0.2% and +6.0% in 1Q25, primarily driven by clinical CRO companies [6][8]. Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on sales of instruments and equipment for drug development and production was reported to be less than anticipated, with management from major life sciences companies indicating a more favorable outlook [29][30]. - Companies like Thermo Fisher and Danaher have adjusted their performance guidance upwards, reflecting a more optimistic view on tariff impacts [29][30]. Demand Trends - The C(D)MO sector continues to see strong commercial production demand, while life sciences upstream companies benefit from a recovery in consumable demand as clients complete inventory destocking [31][32]. - Clinical CRO demand has been bolstered by unexpected growth from biotech clients, although the sustainability of this demand is still in question [33][34]. Financial Metrics - The average gross margin for heavy asset companies decreased from 50.2% in 2021 to 45.7% in 2024, but showed signs of recovery in 2Q25 [15]. - The report notes that capital expenditures are expected to reverse the declining trend observed in 2023-24, potentially increasing future depreciation pressures [17]. Market Reactions - Following the release of 2Q25 results, stock prices for most overseas CXO and life sciences companies reacted positively, particularly for clinical CROs, which saw significant price increases due to better-than-expected performance [24][25].
长江期货市场交易指引-20250818
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 03:31
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Rebar is for range trading; Iron ore is expected to be oscillating upwards; Coking coal and coke are to trade sideways [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is for range trading or staying on the sidelines; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel is suggested to stay on the sidelines or sell on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold and silver are for range trading [1][11][17] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate; Soda ash is for shorting 09 and going long on 05 for arbitrage; Caustic soda is expected to oscillate; Styrene is expected to oscillate; Rubber is expected to oscillate; Urea is expected to trade sideways; Methanol is expected to trade sideways; Polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations [1][20][29] - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be oscillating upwards; Apples are expected to be oscillating upwards; Jujubes are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][34][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies; Eggs are recommended to sell on rallies; Corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is expected to have range oscillations; Oils are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][36][44] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economic and political situation, such as the "Trump - Putin meeting", US economic data, and China's monetary policy, has an impact on the financial and commodity markets [6] - The supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy factors of various commodities determine their price trends and investment strategies [8][20][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: After a short - term high, the market may oscillate and wash out positions, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6] - **Treasury bonds**: In the context of the continuous increase in trading volume in the equity market, there are potential risks in the bond market, such as the transfer of funds from funds and wealth management to the equity market and increased frictions in the inter - bank market. Short - term adjustments should be avoided [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost is at a neutral level, supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, and attention should be paid to inventory increases, coking coal production resumption, and indirect steel exports [8] - **Iron ore**: The supply is slightly decreasing, and demand remains strong. With the National Day parade expectation, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [8][9] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand contradictions of coking coal are not prominent, and the price has limited downside space but may have short - term adjustments. Coke is in a tight supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to production restrictions during the parade, iron - water production trends, and raw material price fluctuations [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The macro environment is favorable, but short - term upward driving forces are insufficient. Low inventory provides support, and the price is expected to be oscillating upwards. The short - term operating range is 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level. Although there are short - term negative factors, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The medium - and long - term supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to have support, and range trading is recommended, with the reference range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [17] - **Silver and gold**: After the decline in precious metal prices due to factors such as the 7 - month PPI data in the US, there is support below. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price pullback [17][18] 3.4 Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports have uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 4900 - 5100 range [20][21] - **Caustic soda**: The supply is abundant, demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The price is expected to be oscillating upwards, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 2500 - yuan support level [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and profit are affected by factors such as oil prices and pure - benzene production. Supply has the potential to increase, demand has risks of weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate, temporarily focusing on the 7100 - 7400 range [24] - **Rubber**: The new - rubber release is affected by rain, and there is cost support. However, the inventory - removal speed may slow down in late August. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, focusing on the 15,200 - 15,600 range [26] - **Urea**: Supply is slightly decreasing, agricultural demand is scattered, and compound - fertilizer demand is increasing. The price has support below and pressure above, and range trading is recommended [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is slightly decreasing, demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be oscillating weakly [29] - **Polyolefins**: The cost has uncertainties, and downstream demand is in the off - season to peak - season transition. The price is expected to be oscillating weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2509 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [29][30] - **Soda ash**: The supply is expected to increase, and the industry is over - capacitated. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [32] 3.5 Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, the macro environment is favorable, and with the approaching peak season, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34] - **Apples**: The inventory market is stable and dull, and the early - maturing market has quality differences. Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The枣树 is in the fruit - swelling stage, and the market has certain trading volumes. The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the near term [35] 3.6 Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is oscillating at the bottom. The 09 contract has a long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see. The 11 and 01 contracts have supply pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [36][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, which restricts price increases. It is recommended to short on rallies. If the elimination process accelerates, there are opportunities to go long on the 12 and 01 contracts. Overall, it is recommended to short the near - term and go long on the far - term contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is oscillating in the range of 2250 - 2300. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40][42] - **Soybean meal**: The US soybean supply - demand situation is tightening, but the price increase is limited. The domestic supply is abundant in August and September. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2511 and M2601 contracts and roll them, and spot enterprises should build long positions [43] - **Oils**: Although there are short - term risks of high - level corrections, the overall trend is still upward. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage of rapeseed oil [44][50]
美国经济:零售保持韧性
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-08-18 02:05
Retail Performance - In July, U.S. retail and food service sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly below the market expectation of 0.6%[5] - The average monthly growth rate of retail sales rose from 0% in January-May to 0.7% in June-July, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[2] - Automotive sales rebounded, with a month-on-month growth rate increasing from 1.4% in June to 1.6% in July after a cumulative decline of 4.6% in the first five months of 2023[5] Industrial Output - Industrial production fell by 0.1% month-on-month in July, primarily due to declines in mining and utilities, which dropped to -0.4% and -0.2% respectively[5] - Manufacturing output remained flat at 0% month-on-month, with significant increases in medical equipment (2.6%) and semiconductors (2.9%), while apparel and automotive sectors saw declines[5] Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole is expected to defend the independence of the central bank and reduce market expectations for significant interest rate cuts[2] - With inflation expected to rebound and unemployment rates remaining low, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[2]