Core Insights - The Eurozone economy shows a clear divergence in early Q4, with significant recovery in business activity but ongoing pressure on industrial prices [1][2] - The composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October rose to 52.5, indicating the fastest expansion since May 2023, driven mainly by a surge in service sector activity [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September declined for the second consecutive month, reflecting persistent deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [1][2] Economic Indicators - The final value of the Eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.5, up from the initial estimate of 52.2 and September's 51.2, signaling a notable acceleration in overall economic activity [1] - Service sector activity accelerated sharply, becoming the primary growth driver, while manufacturing output saw only a slight increase [1] - New business volumes grew at the fastest pace in two and a half years, contributing to a 16-month high in employment growth [1] Price Trends - The Eurozone's PPI for September fell by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second month of negative growth, and the year-on-year decline was 0.2%, consistent with expectations [1][2] - Energy prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, continuing to be a major factor in the PPI decline, following a 1.5% drop in August [1] - Core PPI, excluding energy, remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.9%, indicating stability in non-energy industrial prices [1] Sector Analysis - Durable consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year, while non-durable consumer goods prices saw a slight rise of 0.1% [2] - Intermediate goods prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and capital goods prices remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [2] - The current economic structure in the Eurozone is characterized by strong service sector performance and weak manufacturing, with stable consumer demand but cautious investment in industrial sectors [2]

Group 1 - The global gold market is currently experiencing a stalemate, with prices hovering around $3996 per ounce, unable to break the $4000 mark due to various unseen forces at play [1][10] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to internal disagreements, creating uncertainty about future monetary policy, which is affecting market sentiment [3][10] - Historical concerns about inflation and potential changes in leadership at the Federal Reserve are contributing to a tense atmosphere in the gold market [5][10] Group 2 - China's new gold tax policy is adding complexity to the market, potentially making gold purchases more expensive and dampening demand [7][10] - The market is waiting for clarity on both the U.S. interest rate outlook and the implications of China's new policies, which are critical for future gold price movements [10][12] - The interplay between U.S. and Chinese policies is seen as the primary driver of market direction, rather than technical analysis [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Euro is experiencing a downward trend against the Yen, influenced by the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike and the new Japanese Prime Minister's fiscal expansion plans [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda hinted at a possible interest rate increase in December or January 2026, which has led the market to reassess the outlook for the Yen [1] - The new Japanese Prime Minister, Suga, is expected to implement more aggressive fiscal spending, which may conflict with monetary tightening goals, potentially delaying the Bank of Japan's rate hike [1] Group 2 - The new Finance Minister, Katayama, clarified that she no longer adheres to the previous view of the Yen's fair value being in the 120-130 range, indicating a possible government intervention in the currency market to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates during its October meeting for the third consecutive time, citing stable inflation prospects and ongoing economic growth, but acknowledged external uncertainties [1] - The technical analysis shows that the Euro to Yen exchange rate has fallen below short-term support levels, indicating a continued weak trend, with potential further declines if it breaks below 177.00 [2]

Group 1 - UK manufacturing in October experienced its strongest month in a year, primarily due to Jaguar Land Rover's recovery from a cyberattack, leading to a "one-time rebound" in production. The manufacturing PMI output index returned to growth, driven by intermediate products, reflecting supply chain improvements from Jaguar Land Rover's gradual production restart. However, domestic and international demand remains weak, with companies relying on previous order backlogs to maintain operations [1][1][1] - Goldman Sachs analysts indicated that the current US government shutdown could have a record-breaking impact on the economy. This shutdown may last longer than the 35-day partial shutdown from 2018-2019 and is broader in scope, potentially affecting federal procurement and investment significantly, with spillover effects on the private sector. If the shutdown lasts about six weeks, it could reduce the annualized quarterly growth rate for Q4 2025 by 1.15 percentage points, with a further decline of 1.3 percentage points in Q1 2026 due to spillover effects from federal procurement and investment [1][1][1] Group 2 - HSBC Global Investment Research stated that the US dollar may bottom out in early 2026 due to anticipated further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and uncertainty regarding the next chairperson. This week, dollar shorts will face new challenges as multiple Federal Reserve officials' speeches and US economic activity indicators will be market focal points. The sensitivity of the dollar may increase further [2][2][2] - Morgan Stanley MUFG strategists remain bullish on the mid-section of the Japanese government bond yield curve, believing that changes in the US economic landscape may lead to a downward repricing of the Bank of Japan's terminal rate. Despite some alleviation of fiscal issues under the new government, they remain cautious about long-term bonds, noting that Japan's top ten life insurance companies' investment plans for the second half of FY2025 suggest they are unlikely to be a stable demand source for ultra-long Japanese government bonds [2][2][2] Group 3 - The Indian rupee is nearing a record low, with recent interventions by the central bank proving limited in effectiveness. The rupee has depreciated for three consecutive days against the dollar, trading at 88.7988. Despite the Reserve Bank of India's recent unexpected sale of large amounts of dollars to stabilize the market, the rupee has failed to maintain its gains. Traders noted that the central bank has been selling dollars in smaller amounts to prevent the rupee from breaching the historical low of 88.8050 [3][3][3] - Switzerland's annual inflation rate unexpectedly dropped to 0.1% in October, down from 0.2% in September. Analysts suggest that the Swiss National Bank may not be influenced by this result, as the bank expects inflation to rise in the coming months. Factors such as declining rental inflation and anticipated electricity price reductions may lead to a further drop in inflation to -0.3% by February next year. However, the Swiss National Bank has indicated that it will only consider lowering key interest rates below 0% if mid-term inflation falls below zero [4][4][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% during its upcoming meeting, with no forward guidance anticipated due to increasing economic uncertainty [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The core inflation rate in Australia rose from a revised 0.7% in Q2 to 1% in Q3, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's target range of 2-3% [3]. - Domestic demand remains strong, driven by government tax cuts and energy subsidies, contributing to persistent inflation, particularly in services [3]. - Recent data indicates a rise in credit growth and record-high housing prices, suggesting that the financial environment is not overly tight [3]. Labor Market Conditions - The labor market shows signs of loosening, with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, the highest level since September 2021 [4]. - A report indicated that the number of private sector job advertisements fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 7.4% year-on-year, reflecting labor market weakness [4]. Future Projections - Some economists predict that Australia may face a situation similar to the U.S., where moderate economic growth and rising unemployment could lead to a cooling of prices, prompting the RBA to consider rate cuts [4]. - The RBA is expected to maintain its current policy until there is clear evidence of economic direction, with some forecasts suggesting two rate cuts in the next year, bringing the rate down to 3.1% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices reached a record high this week and then declined. Although the long - term demand outlook for copper is optimistic due to factors such as tight copper concentrate supply and increasing demand from computing power construction, short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Copper operating in the range of 85,000 - 89,000. It is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. - Aluminum prices are in a high - level upward oscillation. However, as the rainy season in Guinea ends and alumina prices weaken, there is downward pressure on ore prices. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits at high levels for aluminum - related products [2]. - Zinc prices are in a relatively strong oscillation. Although the processing fees of zinc ore have decreased, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain at a high level. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will maintain an oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 23,000, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. - Lead prices are in a sideways oscillation. Supply is decreasing, but downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices. Considering the strong production and consumption demand and the temporary truce in the Sino - US trade war, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation. It is recommended to go long at low levels within the range of 17,100 - 17,800 [2]. - Nickel prices are in an intra - range oscillation and decline. The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market remains in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai Nickel operating in the range of 119,000 - 123,000; for stainless steel, it is also recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,400 - 12,900 [3]. - Tin prices are in a high - level oscillation and overall upward trend. Although tin ore supply is expected to improve, downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai Tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. - Industrial silicon prices are in an oscillatory adjustment. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products such as polysilicon and organic silicon have changed. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon storage platform and production reduction [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining certificates in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - From October 27th to November 2nd, important economic data were released. China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showed good growth. The Sino - US leaders held a meeting, and the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus on tariff and export control measures. China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the eurozone's GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. The US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, but it is expected to face difficulties in the House of Representatives [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. 3.2 Copper - Price trend: Reached a record high and then declined, expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply of copper concentrate is tight, but short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Investment advice: Exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price trend: High - level upward oscillation, with the oscillation range broken through [46]. - Fundamental factors: The rainy season in Guinea ends, alumina prices weaken, the operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the inventory increases. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases slightly, and downstream demand is affected by the transition from peak to off - peak season [2]. - Investment advice: Reduce positions and take profits at high levels [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price trend: Relatively strong oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc ore processing fees have decreased, smelter production enthusiasm is high, terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level [2]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price trend: Sideways oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is decreasing, downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices, but production and consumption demand are strong [2]. - Investment advice: Go long at low levels within the range [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price trend: Intra - range oscillation and decline [3]. - Fundamental factors: The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market is in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation [3]. - Investment advice: Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price trend: High - level oscillation and overall upward trend [3]. - Fundamental factors: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumption is weak [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Price trend: Oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Fundamental factors: The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products have changed, and the production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: Wide - range oscillation [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, downstream demand is strong, and there are uncertainties in mining certificates [3]. - Investment advice: Trade cautiously [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Monitor risks in US banks [2] - Silver: Oscillate and rebound [2] - Copper: With increasing disturbing factors, prices will oscillate [2] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Lead: Continuous reduction in domestic and foreign inventories supports prices [2] - Tin: Pay attention to macro - impacts [2] - Aluminum: Fluctuations will converge; Alumina: Slight decline; Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: With the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, nickel prices will oscillate in a narrow range; Stainless steel: Limited downside potential, lack of upward drivers [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on prices, trading volume, positions, ETF holdings, inventories, spreads, and exchange rates of gold - related products are presented. For example, the closing price of Comex gold 2512 yesterday was 4038.30, with a daily increase of 2.45% [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were high - level meetings between China and the US, and central bank policies in Europe, Japan, etc. [4][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1 [6] Silver - **Fundamental Tracking**: Similar to gold, data on prices, trading volume, positions, ETF holdings, inventories, spreads, etc. of silver - related products are provided. For example, the closing price of Comex silver 2512 yesterday was 48.730, with a daily increase of 3.08% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 1 [6] Copper - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on prices, trading volume, positions, inventories, spreads, etc. of copper - related products are shown. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract yesterday was 87,960, with a daily decline of 0.85% [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: High - level meetings between China and the US, European central bank policies, and news in the copper industry such as potential copper concentrate exports in Indonesia, policy changes in the US, and production data from major copper producers [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10] Zinc - **Fundamental Tracking**: Information on prices, trading volume, positions, spreads, inventories, etc. of zinc - related products is given. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22365, with a decline of 0.29% [11]. - **News**: High - level meetings between China and the US and related tariff agreements [11] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [13] Lead - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on prices, trading volume, positions, spreads, inventories, etc. of lead - related products are provided. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17350, with a decline of 0.03% [14]. - **News**: High - level meetings between China and the US and European central bank policies [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [14] Tin - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on prices, trading volume, positions, inventories, spreads, etc. of tin - related products are presented. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 283,600, with a daily decline of 1.09% [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: High - level meetings between China and the US, central bank policies in Europe, Japan, etc., as well as corporate news [17] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Tracking**: Comprehensive data on prices, trading volume, positions, spreads, inventories, etc. of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy - related products are provided. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21245 [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: Japan's central bank policy and US Senate's resolution on tariffs [21] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0; Alumina trend intensity is - 1; Aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [21] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on prices, trading volume, positions, spreads, etc. of nickel and stainless - steel - related products are shown. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,980 [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Incidents in the Indonesian nickel mining industry, China's policy on imports, and potential US tariff policies [23][25] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0; Stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [25]

Core Insights - The report highlights Netflix's announcement of a 1-for-10 stock split plan, indicating a strategic move to enhance liquidity and attract more investors [2] - The report notes significant financial performance from major companies, with Apple reporting a record revenue of $102.47 billion for Q4 2025, and Amazon's net profit increasing by 38% in Q3 [3] Economic Data - The report provides key economic indicators, including the Baltic Dry Index at 1961.00, reflecting a 0.56% increase, and the Nasdaq Index closing at 23581.14, down by 1.57% [4] - The report also mentions the performance of various indices, with the Hang Seng Index at 26282.69, down by 0.24%, and the Shanghai Composite Index at 3986.90, down by 0.73% [7]

Core Points - The US dollar index is trading around 99.435, with the euro at 1.1613 and the pound at 1.1576, while the dollar/yen is at 153.7100 [1] - The dollar index strengthened by 0.38% to close at 99.51, with the 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.0990% and the 2-year yield at 3.6160% [2] - The European Central Bank has unanimously decided to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes [4] - The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates unchanged, although two officials voted in favor of a 25 basis point increase [5] - Meta Platforms plans to raise at least $25 billion through bond issuance [7] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high for a single quarter in Q3 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market shows a complex and diverse trend. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, some macro - favorable factors are gradually implemented, but different sectors have different performances. Some sectors are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy and cost factors [2][9][20]. - In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are affected by Sino - US consensus and market expectations, and there are opportunities for short - term option operations; treasury bond futures are expected to have short - term trading opportunities with the implementation of risk - preference factors; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and economic factors and are expected to have a long - term bull market [2][6][9]. - In the commodity futures market, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper has long - term supply - demand contradictions to support the price, while aluminum is affected by macro and fundamental factors and maintains a high - level shock [20][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the market digested the expectations and adjusted. The A - share market declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. It is recommended to try to sell put options at the support level or construct a bullish call spread [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Negative factors are gradually implemented, and the bond market sentiment is enhanced. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [6][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, geopolitical concerns resurfaced, and precious metals fluctuated and rebounded. In the long - term, they are expected to have a bull market, while in the short - term, gold may face downward pressure, and silver maintains a shock pattern [9][12]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot market is cold, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The bullish expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs are fulfilled, and the price fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the price, and in the short - term, it is affected by demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 87,000 [20]. - **Alumina**: The spot price in the north shows signs of stopping falling, and the futures price stabilizes at a low level. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short - term, and the main contract fluctuates between 2,750 - 2,950 [20][23]. - **Aluminum**: The price is strong, affected by macro and fundamental factors, and is expected to maintain a high - level shock. The main contract reference range is 20,800 - 21,400 [24][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is firm, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The price is expected to maintain a strong shock, and the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 [26][28]. - **Zinc**: The spot transaction is average, and the price fluctuates. The supply increase may be limited, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to maintain a shock, and the main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 [31][32]. - **Tin**: Powell's hawkish attitude on the December interest rate cut may cause the short - term price to fall. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [32][35]. - **Nickel**: After the Sino - US meeting, the macro is stable, and the price fluctuates. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 [35][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuates, and the supply pressure increases. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 [39][42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price center moves up, and the demand is strong. The main contract reference range is 83,000 - 87,000 [42][45]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The supply and demand are neutral, and the inventory pressure is not large. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply of coking coal and reduce positions at high - pressure levels [47][48]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price falls after rising. It is recommended to close long positions and pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [49][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is strong, and the downstream replenishment demand is warm. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [52][55]. - **Coke**: The mainstream coke enterprises start the third round of price increase, and the cost is supported by coking coal. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [56][59]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: China's confidence in purchasing US soybeans is enhanced, and the near - month soybeans have cost support. The domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong [60][62]. - **Pigs**: The entry of secondary fattening slows down, and the pig price tends to fluctuate. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [63][64]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure still exists, and the price fluctuates weakly. The port price is affected by inventory and cost [65].