铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/7/10 周甫翰（Z0020173）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 【核心矛盾】 铁合金在煤炭价格反弹带动下，以及铁合金受技术性买盘等因素存在一定的反弹情绪 ，上周在提出推出落后 产能维持反弹趋势。近期铁合金上涨的主要逻辑还是在于政策预期和煤炭价格的强势，但现货市场受到钢厂 压价和成本走弱拖累，在终端用钢需求逐渐进入淡季背景下，铁合金长期走势仍相对较弱。 铁合金在利润修 复下，开工率回升，处于一个超季节性增产状态，铁合金产量微增但下游需求并没有明显改变，库存有累库 趋势。锰矿8月报价下调以及澳矿发运恢复，叠加黑色面临需求淡季交易负反馈预期，预计铁合金仍偏弱运 行。上周受到推动落后产能退出政策消息的影响，铁合金作为过剩产业受益相对较大，但盘面回升后，铁合 金利润修复增产的可能性较大，供应压力逐渐增加去库速度变慢，硅铁关注上方5600-5700压力位，硅锰关注 上方5800-5900压力位。短期来看强预期与弱现实的博弈，强预期处于上风，还是要等待预期是否能够真正落 地。 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波 ...

文 | 青茶 近年来，随着美国与欧盟不断对中国施压，试图通过加征关税和实施制裁来遏制中国的崛起，全球经济格局也经历了深刻的变化。与此同时，中国凭借坚定 的经济政策和灵活多变的外交策略，逐渐在国际舞台上占据了举足轻重的地位。近期，围绕稀土管控以及钢铁反倾销关税的争议引发了全球广泛关注，而中 国与巴基斯坦、孟加拉国的合作也使得印度的战略压力不断加大。那么，中国究竟是如何在这一复杂局势中实现战略突破的呢？ 稀土素有"现代工业粮食"之称，是支撑高科技产业的关键资源，尤其在军事领域及半导体产业中具有无可替代的重要作用。作为全球稀土资源的最大供应 国，中国在这一战略资源的掌控上无疑处于领先地位。近年来，随着中美贸易战的加剧，中国对稀土出口的管控逐步收紧，这引发了美国、日本、欧盟等国 家的深切忧虑，尤其在全球科技竞争日益激烈的背景下，稀土资源的供应问题成为国际政治博弈中的重要筹码。 美国对稀土的依赖几乎无法避免。稀土元素被广泛应用于高科技产品、军事装备及能源领域，尤其是在军事领域，美军的战机、导弹、雷达系统等装备几乎 都离不开稀土元素。然而，美国稀土资源的储备早已接近枯竭，若不能从外部及时获得稀土，将直接影响未来几年美军的 ...

Group 1: Core Logic Supporting Gold Prices - The increasing fiscal situation in the U.S. is a fundamental factor supporting gold prices, with the potential addition of $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade due to the "Build Back Better" plan, and a debt ceiling increase of $5 trillion, exacerbating the current $36.2 trillion debt level [3][6] - The dual accumulation of fiscal and political risks has triggered a global capital reallocation, influenced by the rising political atmosphere following Musk's announcement of forming the "American Party" [3][6] Group 2: Trade Frictions and Policy Volatility - Trump's trade policies, including a recent 50% tariff on copper imports, have stirred market sentiment and raised concerns about global economic slowdown, leading to increased inflows of safe-haven funds into the gold market [7][9] - The uncertainty in trade policies is impacting consumer confidence and business investment, prompting a reallocation of global capital away from U.S. assets towards gold as an alternative safe-haven [9] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies and Interest Rate Dynamics - The traditional inverse relationship between interest rates and gold prices is being restructured, as gold prices have risen despite actual U.S. interest rates exceeding 2% [10][13] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential shift in policy, including possible interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, are contributing to the current dynamics where both gold and interest rates may rise simultaneously [10][13] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases and Market Structure - Continuous gold purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are becoming a significant support for gold prices, driven by motives such as diversification of foreign exchange reserves and hedging against geopolitical risks [13] - The shift in demand from private investors to official institutions marks a structural change in the gold market, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" in response to U.S. fiscal deficits [13] Group 5: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Trends - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by technical and sentiment factors, with current prices nearing key resistance levels around $3,335 per ounce [14] - Long-term drivers for gold remain rooted in structural uncertainties in the global economy and politics, including ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and fluctuating trade policies, reinforcing gold's role as a "backup safe-haven asset" [17]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing intensified long and short positions, with a significant fluctuation of $50 this week, prompting traders to make critical decisions on daily positions [1] Group 1 - The current market dynamics indicate a wide range of price movements in gold, suggesting increased volatility and trading opportunities [1] - Traders are encouraged to participate in live analysis sessions to gain insights into short-term trading strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has closed the window for interest rate cuts in July, leading to significant movements in the gold market, with gold prices rebounding nearly $50 from the bottom, raising questions about whether a short-term peak has been reached [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision impacts market expectations and investor sentiment regarding interest rates [1] - Gold prices have shown a strong rebound, indicating potential volatility in the short term [1] - The analysis suggests that market participants are closely monitoring gold's price movements for signs of a peak [1]

Group 1 - The core issue of the article revolves around the ongoing trade conflict between China and the United States over rare earth elements and critical minerals, highlighting the complexities of international supply chains and the effectiveness of China's export restrictions [1][4] - China announced a ban on the export of strategic minerals such as antimony, gallium, and germanium in December 2024, which was initially perceived as a strategic advantage for China in the trade war [1][4] - However, U.S. companies quickly adapted by sourcing these critical minerals through third countries, indicating a significant shift in the supply chain dynamics [4][5] Group 2 - The article discusses how U.S. imports of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico surged to 3,834 tons between December 2024 and April 2025, nearly matching the total imports from the previous three years [4] - It raises concerns about the effectiveness of China's regulatory measures, as minerals can be repackaged and labeled in third countries, allowing them to enter the U.S. market without restrictions [5][8] - The article suggests that the current situation reflects a historical pattern where both countries have used similar tactics to circumvent trade barriers, undermining the effectiveness of China's export bans [8] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Defense aims to diversify its supply sources to reduce reliance on China, indicating a strategic shift in sourcing critical minerals from regions like Africa and Canada [8] - The European Union is also considering establishing mineral transit routes in Southeast Asia, signaling a growing international competition for mineral resources [8] - The article emphasizes the need for China to implement effective countermeasures, such as additional taxes on transshipment activities and enhanced regulatory oversight in ASEAN countries [10]

Group 1 - The core development in US-China economic relations is the transition from a "tariff truce" in Geneva to the establishment and implementation of the "London Framework," indicating a significant adjustment in posture between the two nations [1][2] - The "London Framework" includes key agreements such as China's approval of export licenses for controlled items and the US's cancellation of a series of restrictive measures against China [1][2] - As of July 4, US companies have been notified by the Department of Commerce that exports of EDA software, ethane, and certain aircraft engine components to China have been restored, while China is expediting the approval of export licenses for strategic resources like rare earths [1][2] Group 2 - Despite progress, structural challenges remain in US-China economic relations, particularly in areas like AI chips and quantum computing, where US restrictions are still in place [3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US has not yielded benefits and has led to market turmoil, highlighting the need for continued dialogue and cooperation [3] - The US is encouraged to expand the scope of lifted restrictions and seek broader cooperation, moving beyond a zero-sum mindset to view China as an equal partner [3][4] Group 3 - The ideal future state of US-China economic relations should shift from friction and conflict to cooperation and mutual benefit, emphasizing the importance of managing competition while expanding collaboration [4] - Mechanized dialogue is essential to transform the "measures framework" into a "results list," achieving breakthroughs in tariff reductions, technological cooperation, and rule restructuring [4] - The Geneva-London negotiations mark the beginning of this transition, but further progress requires mutual actions and the accumulation of political and economic trust [4]

3800吨！ 这个触目惊心的数字是美国海关披露的惊人事实。 在去年12月至今年4月期间，美国通过第三国转运方式，成功获取3834吨中国产氧化锑，几乎超过前三年的总和。 价格暴涨刺激铤而走险。自中国实施管制以来，部分稀土元素价格飙升逾200%，达到每公斤3000美元的历史高位。 更令人警醒的是，路透社调查发现中国境内企业与境外买家勾结，将受管制的锑矿伪装成普通铁矿、锌矿报关，先运往东南亚或拉美国家，再辗转流入美国 军工生产线。 当稀土管制成为中国对美博弈的战略王牌，这些走私暗道正让国家利益悄然流失。 稀土走私并非传统意义上的海上偷运，而是一场精心设计的跨国"合法伪装"游戏。 美国企业主Levi Parker向媒体透露了标准操作流程：中国采购代理商从生产商处获取镓、锑等管制矿产，物流公司随即更换包装，贴上"铁矿石""锌精矿"甚 至"艺术品"的假标签。 货物先运往泰国、墨西哥等第三国"洗身份"，再由当地合作伙伴重新包装发往美国。 航运记录揭露了一个典型案例：一家中国广西化工企业在泰国的子公司，在半年内向美国运送了至少3366吨锑产品，同比激增27倍。 而泰国全国仅有的一座锑冶炼厂产能微乎其微，这些货物的真实来源不言 ...

Group 1 - The real estate sector is showing strong performance, with the CSI 800 Real Estate Index rising over 1% as of July 10, 2023, at 10:04 AM [1] - Notable stocks include Greenland Holdings hitting the daily limit, New Town Holdings increasing over 4%, and Vanke A, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments all rising over 1% [1] - The real estate ETF (159707), which represents leading A-share real estate stocks, saw an increase of over 1.5% with a trading volume exceeding 14 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has conducted research in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, emphasizing the need for multi-faceted approaches to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market [3] - Zhongyin Securities indicates that the upcoming Politburo meeting in July is expected to adopt a more proactive stance, potentially leading to a rally in the real estate sector mid-July [3] - The report suggests that local governments will intensify efforts to implement existing policies effectively, including support for urban renewal and special bond storage [3] Group 3 - Zhongyin Securities recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong liquidity, high concentration in major cities, and robust product offerings, as they may exhibit alpha characteristics [3] - The report also highlights the potential for significant valuation recovery in companies benefiting from debt resolution, policy relief, and improved sales [3] - The real estate ETF (159707) tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, comprising 13 leading real estate companies, with over 90% weight in the top ten constituents, indicating a high concentration of quality firms [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The first half of 2025 saw a mixed performance in the fund market, with equity funds performing well while bond fund sizes declined [2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a mild recovery with structural contradictions, where production outpaces consumption and deflationary pressures persist [3][4] - The industrial value-added in May 2025 grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 6.4%, driven by policies encouraging consumption [3][4] Group 2: Fund Performance - Over 80% of the 12,897 public funds saw net value growth in the first half of 2025, with several funds achieving growth rates exceeding 80% [5] - The number of newly established funds reached 672, raising a total of 540.85 billion yuan, although the issuance scale decreased by nearly 20% compared to the previous year [5] Group 3: Equity Funds - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced overall gains, with the North Star 50 Index rising by 39.45% in the first half of 2025 [6] - The launch of ETF funds significantly contributed to the growth of stock funds, with 387 new stock funds established, marking a 183% increase in issuance compared to the previous year [7] Group 4: Sector Performance - The top 10 performing public funds were all actively managed equity funds, with seven being focused on the pharmaceutical sector, highlighting its strong performance [8] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 26.1% increase in the A-share innovative drug concept, driven by domestic consumption policies and accelerated domestic substitution [9] Group 5: AI Sector - The AI sector experienced volatility, with the leading AI fund showing a -20.57% return, attributed to a mismatch between investment strategy and market trends [10] - Despite the struggles of some AI funds, the technology sector remains strong, with the DeepSeek index rising by 42.51% in the first half of 2025 [10] Group 6: Fixed Income Funds - The bond fund market saw a significant recovery in June 2025, with the number of newly established bond funds reaching a record high for the year [11] - Credit bonds attracted increased investment, with net subscriptions for credit bond ETFs exceeding 800 billion yuan in the past month [12] Group 7: Future Outlook - The investment strategy for the second half of 2025 suggests a focus on high-return assets and sectors with long-term growth potential, such as agriculture, transportation, and technology [15]