随着反内卷政策的推进及部分生产线冷修，玻璃价格多次出现阶段性的快速反弹，但这种突发的供应端 变化往往会给市场带来更多的是短期的冲击，因下游订单长期偏弱，导致反弹乏力，甚至价格会快速回 落至前期低点。从预期来看，虽短时供应预期下行对玻璃价格存在提振作用，但未来玻璃整体供需格局 仍偏宽松，若无政策强力提振需求，则玻璃每轮反弹的上方空间也可能同样受到限制。 中长期需关注两大关键变量：一是房地产竣工数据能否企稳回升，这是需求端真正改善的核心信号；二 是产能出清速度，若行业亏损持续扩大推动更多产线冷修，日熔量降至15万吨以下，供需格局有望迎来 根本性转变。在此之前，玻璃期货价格大概率维持"低位宽幅区间震荡"的偏弱格局，建议投资者警惕每 次预期炒作后的回落风险。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. Anti-involution policies still hold potential, providing strong downside support. The weekly apparent demand has rebounded, remaining strong year-on-year, indicating robust demand resilience during the off-season. The warming sentiment of winter storage may stimulate a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high, it has been continuously decreasing recently, and if this trend continues, the pressure will ease. The hot-rolled coil futures are currently trading strongly above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, it should be noted that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. 3. Summary of Each Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume and open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased on Friday. The intraday price fluctuated within a narrow range, with the lowest price at 3308 yuan and the highest at 3344 yuan. It closed at 3315 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.33% from the previous trading day. The short-term moving average retraced to the support level around the 10-day moving average and then rebounded, and it is trading strongly above the medium-term 20-day moving average [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the futures and spot prices is -5 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of January 15, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 billion tons compared with the previous week, but decreased by 11.83 million tons year-on-year. The production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production by steel mills after annual maintenance [4]. - Demand side: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 billion tons, showing a significant rebound this week and an increase of 0.51 million tons year-on-year. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that the demand still has resilience [4]. - Inventory side: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 billion tons on a weekly basis (the social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons). The total inventory continued to decline, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, but if the de-stocking trend continues, the downward pressure on prices will be reduced [4]. - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. The government also aims to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

在"十五五"规划的开局之年，如何看待中国经济的长短期趋势与结构性变化成为不少宏观经济学家关注 的重点。德意志银行大中华区首席经济学家熊奕在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，从供给侧来看，过去 一年间，国际社会对中国创新能力和全球经贸体系竞争力的看法发生了转变。 一个最直观的例证是"DeepSeek时刻"这一表述的广泛传播，"它反映出人工智能作为未来关键科技领 域，中国在其中展现的追赶速度已超此前预期。"熊奕表示。 熊奕还透露了一项从微观角度的观察，在北京某顶级学府，早年间专业偏好度较低的理工类如今已成为 热门专业，"整个变化其实集中发生在过去五年里，稀缺的资源正被配置到需要的领域，其中，人才是 非常重要的环节。" 除人才要素外，市场环境和供应链支撑同样对竞争力的形成发挥着关键作用。展望未来，人工智能及其 与各行业深度融合的领域无疑是未来最重要的竞争赛道之一。 "中国在人工智能领域投入的显著加速，恰始于2024年第四季度前后，这与市场对中国宏观经济的预期 出现拐点的时点基本吻合。"熊奕表示。 在他看来，未来五年的一个重要主题与前述创新议题紧密相关：尽管中国已涌现出大量具有强劲创新能 力的企业，但还有一个挑战是，其中有 ...

在熊奕看来，从表现亮眼的港股与A股，到国际市场热烈讨论的"中国竞争力"，都印证了这一变化。中 国的创新能力和在国际经贸体系中的竞争力，在过去一年获得了重新评估，并将成为中国经济未来发展 源源不断的动力。 站在"十五五"开局之际，熊奕着眼于中国经济长期的结构性变化，从供给、需求和货币三个维度阐述其 对于上述问题的思考。 创新能力和经贸竞争力获重估 从供给端来看，熊奕表示，中国的创新能力和在国际经贸体系中的竞争力，在过去一年中获得了重新评 估。 一方面，当前高质量人才储备建设是中国经济供给侧日益增长的竞争优势之一。"中国每年培养的工程 师数量在全球遥遥领先，在顶尖AI研究专家中，近半数本科毕业于中国高校。这些人力资本的深厚积 累，是中国创新能力持续增强的根本。"熊奕说。 竞争力不止来自人才，完整的市场生态和供应链体系同样关键。熊奕以中国智能手机行业的崛起为例表 示，得益于安卓系统的开放契机，大量企业依托中国庞大市场、快速迭代的消费需求和完善供应链展开 充分竞争，加速了知识流动与行业水平提升，最终使中国从行业追赶者成长为全球领先者之一。 熊奕表示，"大量顶尖人才""充分竞争的企业群体""超大且快速迭代的市场""高效 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are experiencing a significant turning point, with a shift from value/defensive stocks to growth and cyclical sectors, driven by macroeconomic recovery, policy support, improved liquidity, and easing geopolitical tensions [1][10] - Morgan Stanley maintains its core index target for MSCI China at 100 points (17% upside) and an optimistic target of 120 points (41% upside), while the CSI 300 index targets are set at 5200 points (10% upside) and 6000 points (27% upside) [2] - The shift in market style has been validated, with growth sectors such as communication services, information technology, and healthcare showing strong performance since mid-December, while A-share market turnover increased by 0.9 percentage points from November to December [2][3] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley upgraded its investment rating for consumer discretionary and healthcare sectors from "neutral" to "overweight," alongside previously upgraded sectors like communication services and information technology, forming a clear growth and cyclical allocation strategy [3][4] - The logic behind the overweight sectors includes recovery in consumer demand driven by policy implementation and rising income expectations, as well as the acceleration of innovative drug development in healthcare [4] - Key recommended stocks include leading companies across various sectors, such as NetEase, Baidu, and Pinduoduo in internet technology, Kweichow Moutai and Haitian Flavoring in consumer, and CATL and Zijin Mining in cyclical growth [4] Group 3 - The "4+1" thematic trading framework is expected to gain momentum in the first quarter of 2026, with multiple catalysts [5][6] - Key areas of focus include stable U.S.-China relations benefiting leading exporters, accelerated AI infrastructure and energy storage demand, and recovery in industries affected by overcapacity [6] - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize due to comprehensive support policies, with measures like lower mortgage rates and funding for project completion driving supply-demand balance [6] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley identifies two main sources of capital inflow supporting the Chinese stock market: the maturity of approximately 57% of onshore deposits in 2026 and the expanding trade surplus, which is projected to reach $1.1 trillion in 2025 [7][8] - The macroeconomic outlook is positive, with GDP growth rates expected to be 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, alongside the best earnings growth cycle since 2020 for MXCN and CSI 300 [8] - The easing of geopolitical tensions and the commencement of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle are anticipated to attract foreign capital inflows, with $27 billion in foreign net inflows recorded in December 2025 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report analyzes the market trends, core logics, technical aspects, and provides strategy suggestions for three commodities: lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon futures. It also lists the subsequent focus points for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures fluctuated. The main 2605 contract rose 0.79% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 163,220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the exchange's regulatory intervention on the 13th, market sentiment cooled. The sharp rise at the beginning of the week was due to the export tax - rebate policy, which might prompt battery companies to stock up, and the booming domestic energy - storage project bidding. However, the continuous decline in positions may lead to a risk of concentrated profit - taking by long positions [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: It is still controlled by long positions. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 143,420 yuan/ton. The continuous decline in positions requires caution [2]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectation", the operation should be mainly to go long on dips. Avoid chasing highs directly and find good entry points according to certain methods. Listen to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for specific operations [2][3]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The actual progress of battery exports in the first quarter, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales after subsidy extension, and the actual impact of geopolitical situations on lithium ore supply [4][5]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures continued to decline. The main 2605 contract fell 0.56% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 48,670 yuan/ton [10][12]. - **Core Logic**: After the market supervision department's约谈, the silicon material price will return to cost - based competition. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is at a three - year high. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and it has reached a six - month low [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The positions continued to decline. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 53,610 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait for low - buying opportunities after stabilization as the decline amplitude is narrowing [12]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The subsequent policy direction of "anti - involution" [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The 2605 contract decreased 0.29% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,730 yuan/ton [16]. - **Core Logic**: It is controlled by short positions. The supply and demand are both weak, the downstream procurement is sluggish, and the inventory is at a three - year high. There is cost support below, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall positions continued to decline. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 8,815 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the middle of the oscillation range, short on rebounds. Long - term attention should be paid to the impact of polysilicon's return to cost - based pricing on industrial silicon. Refer to the band winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for intraday operations [16]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The subsequent policy direction of "anti - involution" [17].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a temporary exemption from corporate income tax and value-added tax on interest income from bonds obtained by foreign institutions investing in the domestic bond market from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [1] - The exemption does not apply to interest income from bonds related to institutions or places established by foreign entities within China [1] - Recent activities include the issuance of 1.5 billion yuan panda bonds by Henkel Group in the interbank bond market, and Barclays Bank initiating a 4 billion yuan panda bond issuance, indicating foreign capital's recognition of RMB bond assets [1] Group 2 - Foreign institutional investors are collectively optimistic about Chinese assets, with Goldman Sachs projecting a 4.8% growth in China's real GDP for 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 4.5% [2] - The MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index are expected to rise by 20% and 12% respectively within the year, with a potential 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027 [2] - UBS forecasts an increase in A-share earnings growth from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, driven by nominal GDP growth, corporate revenue increases, supportive policies, and the promotion of "anti-involution" policies [2] Group 3 - China is intensifying efforts to stabilize foreign investment, with a national foreign investment work conference held on January 14-15, 2026, emphasizing the promotion of foreign investment and the creation of an "Invest in China" brand [3] - The "Encouragement of Foreign Investment Industry Catalog (2025 Edition)" will expand to 1,679 items, guiding foreign investment towards advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-tech sectors, particularly in central and western regions, Northeast China, and Hainan [3] - Investments in these areas will benefit from incentives related to tariffs, land use, and taxes [3]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Zhongzheng Petrochemical Industry Index rising by 1.90% and the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF increasing by 2.05%, indicating a significant market movement [1] - Tianfeng Securities highlights that the chemical industry has entered a historical bottom phase, with supply-side adjustments gaining weight under the "anti-involution" policy, shifting the focus from capacity expansion to stock optimization [1] - Key sub-sectors such as coal chemical, organic silicon, spandex, and pesticides are expected to achieve a supply-demand reversal, supported by technological upgrades and high-value product layouts, leading to potential profit recovery for leading enterprises [1] Group 2 - Guangfa Securities anticipates that the chemical industry will enter a phase of profit cycle reversal, driven by the advancement of anti-involution policies, a decline in capital expenditure, and the onset of overseas interest rate cuts [1] - In growth areas, the solid-state battery industrialization is approaching, and the trend of upgrading new battery materials like sulfides is clear, positioning them as important development directions within the lithium battery supply chain [1] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) offers a cost-effective investment option with a management and custody fee rate of 0.15% + 0.05% per year, significantly lower than similar ETF products in the petrochemical sector, thus reducing investor costs [2]

Group 1 - The chemical materials and fine chemicals sectors experienced a strong rally, with the CSI sub-index for the chemical industry rising by 2.11% as of 10:36 AM on January 15, 2026, with notable stock performances including Hongda Co. up 8.95%, Guangdong Hongda up 6.06%, and Yuntianhua up 4.64% [1] - Since 2021, high prices of chemical products have led to increased capital expenditures by petrochemical and chemical companies, initiating a new round of capacity expansion. However, from 2022 onwards, as new capacities were released and oil prices fell from their peaks, many chemical product prices have continued to decline, resulting in decreased profitability for some companies [1] - Starting in 2024, most chemical product prices are stabilizing at the bottom, and while corporate profitability remains under pressure, the introduction of growth stabilization plans is expected to lead to the elimination of some outdated capacities, improving the overall supply-demand dynamics in the industry and enhancing product profitability [1] Group 2 - Guohai Securities suggests that the anti-involution policy may lead to a re-evaluation of the Chinese chemical industry, with a significant slowdown in global capacity expansion expected. The Chinese chemical industry has ample net cash flow from operating activities, and the slowdown in capacity expansion is likely to enhance potential dividend yields, shifting the industry from a capital-consuming model to a profit-returning one [1] - The optimization of the supply side is anticipated to drive a recovery in industry sentiment, with chemical stocks exhibiting high elasticity and dividend advantages [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-index for the chemical industry accounted for 45.31% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yanhua Co. [2]

| 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600309 | 万华化学 | 3.33% | 10.47% | | 601857 | 中国石油 | 2.34% | 7.63% | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | 2.11% | 6.44% | | 600028 | 中国石化 | -0.34% | 6.44% | | 600938 | 思想起 | 2.10% | 5.22% | | 600160 | 巨化股份 | 1.75% | 4.51% | | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | 2.31% | 3.82% | | 600143 | 金发科技 | -0.91% | 3.69% | | 600426 | 华鲁恒升 | 2.22% | 3.31% | | 600989 | 宝丰能源 | 1.16% | 3.27% | （以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 截至2026年1月15日9:56，中证石化产业指数强势上涨1.76%，成分股广东宏大上涨7.06%，云天化上涨4.90%，兴发集团上涨4.58%，华峰化学，万华化学等 个股跟涨。石化ET ...