Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month (December 2025: +0.8%) [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from December 2025 (previously +1.2%) [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month (December 2025: -1.9%) [2] Food and Service Prices - Food prices dropped by 0.7% year-on-year in January 2026, reversing a 1.1% increase in December 2025, contributing to a downward pull on CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points [2] - Service prices increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly down from 0.6% in December 2025, contributing about 0.05 percentage points to CPI [2] Transportation and Energy Impact - Transportation-related service prices fell, with airplane ticket prices down 14.3% year-on-year, impacting CPI by approximately 0.16 percentage points [2] - Energy prices decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, with gasoline prices down 11.4%, contributing an additional 0.06 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] Core Inflation Resilience - Despite the overall CPI decline, core inflation remains resilient, with steady price increases in major consumer goods and services [2] - Durable goods prices rose by 6.6% year-on-year, and gold jewelry prices surged by 77.4%, indicating strong consumer demand [2] PPI Recovery and Industry Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline indicates a recovery in industrial prices, with notable increases in the new energy sector and a 22.7% rise in non-ferrous metal mining prices [3] - The prices of educational and cultural products increased by 21.2% year-on-year, reflecting heightened demand ahead of the Spring Festival [3] Future Outlook - February 2026 is expected to see a rebound in CPI due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with anticipated increases in food and service demand [3] - PPI is projected to continue its recovery trajectory, supported by infrastructure investment and manufacturing upgrades, with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines [3]

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% in December 2025, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, down from 1.2%[2] - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 1.9%, with a consensus expectation of -1.5%[2] CPI Analysis - The January CPI's year-on-year growth was affected by a high base from the previous year's Spring Festival, leading to a seasonal decline[3] - Food prices fell by 0.7% year-on-year in January, while service prices saw a minimal increase of 0.1%, with notable declines in airfares and travel service costs[4] Core CPI Insights - Excluding food and energy, the core CPI showed a remarkable increase of 0.3% month-on-month, marking the highest growth in six months[5] - The price of gold jewelry surged by 77.4% year-on-year, significantly contributing to a 13.2% rise in other goods and services[5] PPI Trends - The PPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, indicating a recovery in industrial prices[10] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rose sharply, with silver smelting up by 38.2% and copper smelting by 8.4%[10] Future Outlook - The upcoming February CPI is expected to rebound significantly due to holiday demand and a low base effect from February 2025, potentially exceeding 1.0%[15] - The PPI may experience a contraction in month-on-month growth due to seasonal factors affecting commodity prices[15]

Report Title - Log Weekly Report: New Zealand's Shipment Resumes, Spot Market Closed Before the Festival [1] Report Date - February 11, 2026 [1] Report Author - Jiang Zhou Xilin [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the log market is in a stage of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival, with prices remaining stable; the 2603 contract has basically given back its previous gains and may remain stable after the decline, and the performance of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" in the downstream will be further observed [4][9] - In the medium term, there is an expectation of short - term supply shortage after the festival, but the price trend is mainly dominated by the weak downstream demand. There is still room for the price to rise in the peak season after the festival, but the possibility of significant improvement compared with previous years is limited, and the price difference in the May contract is expected to widen [9] Key Points by Section 1. Log Industry Data - Supply - **Spot Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining stable compared with the previous period; the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan/cubic meter, showing an increase [4] - **Futures Price**: As of the close on February 10, the main log contract 2603 closed at 773.5 yuan/cubic meter, showing a decline. The FOB price in New Zealand increased in February, raising the procurement cost of traders [4] - **Arrival Volume**: From February 9 - 15, 2026, the expected number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports is 8, an increase of 4 compared with last week, a week - on - week increase of 100%; the total arrival volume is about 264,000 cubic meters, an increase of 117,000 cubic meters compared with last week, a week - on - week increase of 80%. From February 2 - 8, 2026, the actual number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports was 4, a decrease of 3 compared with last week, a week - on - week decrease of 43%; the total arrival volume was about 147,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 71,000 cubic meters compared with last week, a week - on - week decrease of 33% [4] - **Annual Import Volume**: In December 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. Overall, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs decreased year - on - year in 2025 [4] 2. Log Industry Data - Inventory - **Inventory Quantity**: As of February 10, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.38 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared with last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.02 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared with last week; the North American wood inventory was 110,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as last week; the spruce/fir inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared with last week [6] - **Inventory Change Reason**: The total inventory in Jiangsu has been continuously decreasing. The main reasons are the tight supply of some specifications of port spot (6 - meter medium A and small A), the low arrival volume of radiata pine logs at Taicang Port, and the stockpiling behavior of some processing plants before the Spring Festival, resulting in a structural shortage at Taicang Port since the end of December, especially the shortage of 6 - meter radiata pine logs. In addition, driven by the price difference of 60 yuan/cubic meter between Shandong and Jiangsu, at least 6 New Zealand log ships diverted to Jiangsu, resulting in a significant decrease in the arrival volume at Rizhao Port and a low inventory of 5.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs [6] 3. Log Industry Data - Demand - **Outbound Volume**: From February 2 - 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 51,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 16.53% compared with last week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 32,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 15.68% compared with last week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 12,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 18.87% compared with last week [6] - **Demand Characteristics**: The downstream demand is restricted by seasonal factors. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is closed, and the log outbound volume decreases. Previously, the demand showed a north - south divide. In Jiangsu, the prices generally increased due to the tight inventory and pre - festival stockpiling demand, while in Shandong, the prices remained stable due to the large number of ships. Overall, the short - term price increase of radiata pine logs in Rizhao is mainly due to concerns about the reduction of New Zealand supply and the tight inventory of some specifications caused by ship diversion, with little actual change [6] 4. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook - **Import Structure**: China's import of radiata pine shows a significant characteristic of resource centralization, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing, and domestic demand is accelerating to focus on cost - effective timber species. However, the risk of over - dependence on a single source continues to accumulate [7] - **Policy Impact**: The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost in the off - season. Log downstream products and black futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between construction wood squares and coke is as high as 0.9. To some extent, the industrial structure adjustment of the construction industry is beneficial to boosting the sentiment of the log futures market [7] - **Trade Agreement**: The Sino - US Joint Statement in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially driving the demand for laminated wood and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log stocks to make up for the export demand gap, thereby accelerating log destocking. However, the current downturn in the terminal market brings negative feedback, and it is expected that the log market will fluctuate at a low level in the medium and long term [7] - **Customs Policy**: The General Administration of Customs has decided to revoke the announcement on suspending the import of US logs. In the short term, the total volume of US logs that can arrive at the port and complete customs clearance will still be limited [7] - **Natural Disaster**: Landslides occurred in the Tauranga area of New Zealand's North Island, which is expected to affect local logging operations and delay the shipment of some ships. Although the shipment from New Zealand has returned to normal this week, the current arrival volume in China is still at a low level [7] - **Exchange Policy**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has announced the suspension of the delivery business of log designated truck - board delivery sites at several companies [7] 5. Log Industry Data - Strategy and Suggestions - **Historical Price Trend**: From July to early September 2025, affected by the shortage of some specifications of timber, the increase in FOB quotes, and the stockpiling demand caused by the approaching delivery of the 2509 contract, the futures market had a significant rebound, and the spot price also strengthened synchronously. However, due to the cautious market expectation of the long - term real estate demand, the futures contracts showed a significant differentiation trend of near - strong and far - weak before and after entering the delivery month [9] - **Short - term Outlook**: Before the Spring Festival, the demand shows a north - south divide. In Jiangsu, the supply shortage situation will gradually ease as the diverted ships arrive at the port, and the price increase momentum may slow down; in Shandong, the demand is stable, and Shandong processing plants are expected to have a concentrated holiday in early February. The 2603 contract has basically given back its previous gains. In the short term, it may maintain a stable state after the decline, and the performance of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" in the downstream will be further observed [9] - **Medium - term Outlook**: There is an expectation of short - term supply shortage after the festival, but the price trend is mainly dominated by the weak downstream demand. There is still room for the price to rise in the peak season after the festival, but the possibility of significant improvement compared with previous years is limited, and the price difference in the May contract is expected to widen [9]

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（林玉莲 记者 徐锐）2月11日早盘，PTA板块涨幅居前。截至10点54分，板块整体 上涨超过5%。其中，三房巷涨停，桐昆股份涨近9%，新凤鸣涨超8%，恒力石化、东方盛虹、荣盛石化 等多股跟涨。 消息面上，优彩资源日前在接受机构调研时表示，国家已经对上游的部分企业进行了"反内卷"政策引 导，未来将会解决包括但不限于PTA在内的价格战、利润空间压缩、技术创新不足等问题，PTA价格有 上涨预期。公司低熔点产品以此为原料，产品价格也将修复，公司业绩可能迎来边际改善。 另据生意社大宗商品数据商监测，2月10日，PTA最新价格为5195.20元/吨，最近60天上涨11.98%。 另据生意社大宗商品数据商监测，2月10日，PTA最新价格为5195.20元/吨，最近60天上涨11.98%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（林玉莲 记者 徐锐）2月11日早盘，PTA板块涨幅居前。截至10点54分，板块整体 上涨超过5%。其中，三房巷涨停，桐昆股份涨近9%，新凤鸣涨超8%，恒力石化、东方盛虹、荣盛石化 等多股跟涨。 消息面上，优彩资源日前在接受机构调研时表示，国 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its expectations for the Chinese chemical industry, predicting a new upward cycle from 2026 to 2028 due to multiple positive factors, with expectations for profit recovery and valuation rebound [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley suggests that the Chinese chemical industry will experience a "long-tail recovery" rather than a "V-shaped rebound," indicating that recent stock price increases are driven more by liquidity than fundamental improvements, with "demand deficiency" and "continuous capacity increase" remaining core issues [1] - Analysts believe that the downward risks in the chemical industry have been largely released since 2021, and it is likely entering a long-term recovery phase, although domestic capacity remains abundant [2] - The optimistic outlook from institutions like UBS is based on profit expectations, policy benefits, overseas capacity exits, and valuation recovery [2] Group 2: Key Drivers - Current macro funds are optimistic about the Chinese chemical industry due to three core reasons: accelerated exit of overseas refining capacity and chemical installations, nearing completion of domestic integrated refining installations, and ongoing "anti-involution" policies [1][2] - The chemical industry is expected to see a strong performance in ETFs from late 2025 to early 2026, with various futures products like PX-PTA and ethylene showing potential for growth as macro funds position themselves to capture cyclical benefits [1] Group 3: Structural Changes - The seven major coastal petrochemical bases in China are gradually gaining global pricing power for certain products, enhancing export competitiveness and impacting older capacities in Europe and Japan [3] - The valuation recovery in the chemical sector is expected to exhibit a rotational and diffusive characteristic rather than a uniform increase across all varieties, with different segments likely following a path of "leading recovery - demand relay - overall resonance" [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on segments with supply-side optimization and growing export demand, identifying key characteristics for early valuation recovery, such as cost advantages and limited supply [4] - For specific products like PX, PTA, and styrene, a bullish position is suggested during demand upswings, while for ethylene glycol and polyolefins, a bearish stance is recommended due to expected supply growth [5] - The PVC expansion cycle is nearing its end, with supply approaching theoretical limits, and while current supply pressures have eased, short-term demand remains weak, indicating a potential bottoming phase for prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel industry has shown significant profit improvement in 2025, driven by multiple factors including raw material cost reductions and strategic adjustments by companies [1][2][6]. Group 1: Profit Improvement - The total operating profit of the steel industry in 2025 reached 109.8 billion yuan, indicating an overall improvement [1]. - Among 23 listed steel companies that announced 2025 performance forecasts, 12 reported profits while 11 incurred losses, with notable profit-makers including Hualing Steel and Shougang [1]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to a combination of factors, including effective risk management through the use of futures and derivatives [1][2]. Group 2: Raw Material Market Dynamics - The primary reason for profit improvement is the decline in raw material costs, particularly iron ore and coking coal, which saw significant price drops [2]. - Steel prices have not decreased as sharply as raw material prices, allowing steel mills to expand their profit margins [2]. Group 3: Industry Structure and Demand - The "anti-involution" policy introduced last year has positively impacted industry valuations and steel mill profitability [3]. - The demand for steel in traditional construction has declined, but high-end manufacturing and emerging industries, particularly in electric vehicles, have seen robust demand growth [3]. - Regional disparities are evident, with eastern coastal steel companies benefiting from product structure adjustments, while central and western companies face more challenges due to reduced demand [3]. Group 4: Risk Management through Financial Tools - The use of financial derivatives for risk management has become a core competitive advantage for large steel companies [4][5]. - Baosteel exemplifies this approach by integrating futures into its operations to lock in raw material costs and stabilize profits [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook for 2026 - The steel industry is expected to continue its high-quality development trajectory, with overall profitability likely to improve but without significant changes [6]. - Profit totals for the industry in 2026 could reach or exceed 150 billion yuan, driven by recovering domestic demand and strong export performance [7]. - The competition will increasingly focus on cost control and high-end product competitiveness, with a shift towards optimizing structure and efficiency [8].

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年02月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | 女女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面馈性小幅下挫。随着春节临近，螺纹表需加速下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续累积。热卷需求有所回落，产量短期趋 稳，库存小幅累积。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩 大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran remains tense, and oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile with significant geopolitical risk premiums [2]. - Precious metals are in a stage of sharp fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see until the volatility decreases [3]. - The copper market is in a game between long - term narratives and weak supply - demand realities, and the price may be pressured first and then rise [4]. - Aluminum and related products face adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to key support levels [5][6][7]. - Zinc, lead, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations, and the price trends are affected by factors such as demand, cost, and inventory [8][9][10]. - For various chemical products such as polycrystalline silicon, industrial silicon, and plastics, the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies, and most are in a state of shock or weak operation [13][14][28]. - In the steel and iron ore market, the demand is weak, and the prices are under pressure [15][16]. - For agricultural products such as soybeans, grains, and livestock products, the prices are affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade [36][39][40]. - The stock index is expected to continue to recover, and the bond market may continue to be strong in the short term [47][48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Iran talks continue, but the deadlock may persist. Brent oil prices are highly volatile, and geopolitical risk premiums are significant [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a volatile stage, and the market is waiting for US economic data to assess the prospects of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Copper**: The price rebounds with precious metals. The market is in a game between long - term and short - term factors, and the price may be pressured first and then rise [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum and its products face adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increases, and the prices of casting aluminum alloy and alumina are affected by different factors [5][6][7]. - **Zinc, Lead, and Nickel**: Zinc has supply - demand imbalances during the Spring Festival, and the price has support at 24,000 yuan/ton. Lead has weak demand and cost - side support. Nickel has increasing inventory and is mainly affected by policy sentiment [8][9][10]. - **Tin**: The price continues to rebound, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the MA20 daily line and the high volatility of the outer market [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a low - level shock, with a slowdown in de - stocking and high short - term uncertainty [12]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The futures market is inactive, and the spot fundamentals lack drivers. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is under pressure, affected by the performance of polycrystalline silicon futures and the expected implementation of organic silicon emission reduction targets [14]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support, and low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by overseas refinery supply and heating demand [22]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure is limited, and the consumption shows a slight improvement. The unilateral trend is mainly affected by crude oil, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong [23]. - **Urea**: The daily production is high, and the market is supported by demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and strengthen after the Spring Festival [24]. - **Methanol**: The coastal demand is weak, and the port inventory is high. The domestic production starts to increase, and the market may gradually de - stock after the Spring Festival [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The domestic production increases, and the inventory is basically stable. The supply - demand pattern is expected to improve around the Spring Festival [26]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand structure weakens before the Spring Festival, and the social inventory will accumulate seasonally after the festival [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to increase, but the pre - festival supply is tight. The demand for polyolefins is weak as factories enter the holiday [28]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a narrow - range shock, with inventory changes and cost support. Caustic soda is affected by cost and downstream demand and is expected to operate near the cost [29]. - **PX and PTA**: PX has more long - term opportunities in the second half of the year, but the current demand is weak. PTA's load increases slightly, and attention should be paid to the post - festival balance [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory increases, but the accumulation slows down. It is expected to improve in the second quarter, but the long - term is under pressure [31]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but the downstream is weak. Bottle - chip has a low load and inventory, and attention should be paid to the post - festival inventory [32]. Metals and Minerals - **Iron Ore**: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in the short term [16]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [17][18]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices are affected by supply - demand imbalances and policy expectations [19][20]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The spot price is stable, and the shipping companies' price increase is more for guiding expectations. The near - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the far - month contract is under pressure [21]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of US soybeans rises, and the domestic soybean meal futures are weak. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weak in the short term [36]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are in a state of reducing positions and fluctuating. The price of rapeseed oil is affected by policies [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: It rises strongly, affected by policy auctions and external market prices [38]. - **Corn**: The sales progress is 61%, and the price is weak. The futures are expected to be weak in the short term [39]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is falling, and there is supply pressure after the Spring Festival. The medium - long - term price may have a low point [40]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures have a strategy of waiting for the post - Spring Festival low point to configure long positions [41]. - **Cotton**: The domestic and foreign markets have different situations. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and it is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic production situations are different. The short - term price is under pressure [43]. - **Apples**: The price is oscillatory, and the market focuses on demand and de - stocking speed [44]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level, and the low inventory provides support. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the support at the previous low [46]. Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rises, and the index futures also rise. The A - share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to continue to recover, and attention should be paid to the performance of technology - related sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures rise, and the short - term strong trend is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to curve trading opportunities [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price movements, and potential investment opportunities and risks in each sector [2][3][4] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: The US - Iran talks continue, but core differences remain. The market has reduced concerns about supply disruptions in the short - term, yet geopolitical risks persist. Brent oil prices are highly volatile and contain significant geopolitical risk premiums [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors and tight spot supply in the short - term. However, it may face pressure in the medium - term if geopolitical risks ease. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by increased overseas refinery supply, but European extreme weather may provide support [22] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply pressure is limited in February, and consumption has improved slightly year - on - year. The price trend is mainly affected by crude oil, and the crack spread is expected to remain strong [23] - **Urea**: Urea production is high, and orders are progressing. The market is supported by local agricultural and reserve demand. It will likely oscillate in the short - term and strengthen after the Spring Festival [24] - **Methanol**: Coastal demand for methanol is weak, and port de - stocking is difficult. Domestic production is increasing, and main - producing areas are de - stocking smoothly. The market is affected by geopolitical situations and may gradually de - stock after the Spring Festival [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a stage of sharp oscillation. The market is waiting for US non - farm payrolls and CPI data to assess the prospects of interest rate cuts. Short - term volatility is high, and it is advisable to wait [3] - **Copper**: Copper prices rebounded overnight. The market is concerned about geopolitical risks and long - term strategic value. After the Spring Festival, prices may first be pressured by inventory accumulation and then rise based on demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Inventory performance is weaker than in previous years, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the support at 23,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: Downstream demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and there is a short - term supply surplus. The rebound momentum of Shanghai zinc is weak, but it has support at 24,000 yuan/ton. A short - selling strategy can be considered when TC rebounds [8] - **Lead**: Shanghai lead is at the lower end of the oscillation range. Demand is weak, and cost - side support is emerging. There is strong support at 16,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded, but market trading was light. Stainless steel inventory increased, and market confidence declined. The market is currently dominated by policy sentiment [10] - **Tin**: Tin prices continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to the high volatility of the outer market during the Spring Festival. The focus is on post - holiday supply and demand changes [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium is in a low - level oscillation. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and there may be spot selling. The futures price has crashed, and short - term uncertainty is high [12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures market has light trading, and the price is expected to oscillate. The spot fundamentals lack driving forces, and it is advisable to wait and see [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon prices are under pressure, affected by the weak performance of polysilicon futures and the expected implementation of organic silicon emission reduction targets. Market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is oscillating strongly. Supply is expected to recover after the hurricane, and demand is weak. The overall supply surplus pressure is large, and prices are under short - term pressure [16] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal prices rebounded slightly. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are oscillating. Supply is in surplus, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [19][20] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans rose, but domestic soybean meal futures did not follow. Short - term risks should be noted. Rapeseed meal may oscillate weakly [36] - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil and palm oil are in a state of position - reduction oscillation. US soybean oil may be strong, and attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture report. Rapeseed oil is affected by Canadian菜籽 import policies [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: Soybean No. 1 rose strongly with increased positions. Policy - related soybean auctions and strong external soybean prices have a positive impact [38] - **Corn**: The national corn sales progress is 61%. Spot prices are weak, and trading is light before the Spring Festival. Corn futures are expected to oscillate weakly [39] - **Hogs**: Hog spot prices are falling, and the near - month contract has converged with the spot price. There is supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and long - term prices may have a low point [40] - **Eggs**: Egg spot prices have weakened, and the futures premium has been reduced. Egg prices may rise in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the Spring Festival [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded. Domestic cotton processing and sales are increasing, and imports have increased. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar production in India is increasing, while in Thailand it is slower than expected. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is slow, but there is an expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season. Sugar prices face pressure [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures are oscillating. The Spring Festival stocking is in full swing, but the high purchase price and quality issues may affect inventory reduction [44] - **Timber**: Timber futures are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is weak before the Spring Festival. Low inventory provides some support [45] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures are falling. Port inventory has increased for five consecutive weeks, and demand support is weak. Pulp prices are expected to oscillate [46] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose sharply, and the trading volume increased. The stock index futures also rose. The market is expected to continue to recover, and attention should be paid to technology - related sectors [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures rose, and the curve showed a slight bull - steepening. The market is expected to be strong before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to curve - trading opportunities [48] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The spot market price is stable. Airlines plan to raise prices in March, but the post - Spring Festival period is a traditional off - season. The near - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the far - month contract is under pressure from resumption of flights [21] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Domestic production of pure benzene is increasing, and downstream utilization has improved. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve around the Spring Festival, and port inventory may gradually decrease [26] - **Styrene**: Supply is increasing and demand is decreasing before the Spring Festival. Social inventory will accumulate seasonally after the Spring Festival [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to increase, but the pre - holiday supply is tight. Polyolefin demand is weak as factories are on holiday [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating narrowly, and inventory is accumulating seasonally. Exports are good, and prices are expected to rise. Caustic soda is oscillating strongly, but there is cost - side pressure [29] - **PX and PTA**: PX is recommended for long - positions in the first half of the year, but the current demand is weak. PTA load has increased slightly. Consider long - positions in PX processing margin and positive spreads after the Spring Festival [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol production is increasing, and demand is weak. Inventory is accumulating, but the rate has slowed down. There is an expectation of improvement in the second quarter, but long - term pressure remains [31] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but downstream orders are weak. Bottle - chip processing margin has recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure. Consider positive spreads after the Spring Festival [32] - **Glass**: Glass futures are rising. Inventory is increasing, and there is pressure during the Spring Festival. Industry capacity is being compressed, and there may be opportunities for low - price purchases [33] - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber**: Natural rubber supply is decreasing, and synthetic rubber supply is increasing. Rubber inventory is increasing, and it is advisable to wait and see and look for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [34] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash is running weakly. Inventory is rising, and there is supply - demand surplus pressure in the long - term. A short - selling strategy can be considered [35]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly update on public - offering funds from February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026, analyzing the performance of the equity and fixed - income markets and various fund indices [1][3]. 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - In the equity market, last week (2026.02.02 - 2026.02.06), major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index declined. The A - share market's downward volatility increased due to global resource futures fluctuations and US tech giants' earnings announcements. The tech sector may face more pressure after the Two Sessions, while mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement are worth attention [3][12]. - In the fixed - income market, the bond yield curve flattened last week. Short - term negative factors have been eliminated, so the bond market may not experience significant fluctuations. However, after the Spring Festival, the bond market's volatility may increase due to the active stock market and policy expectations [4][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.27%, the CSI 300 dropped 1.33%, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.28%. The A - share market's volatility increased, and the overall market sentiment cooled. The daily average trading volume of the whole A - shares was 24032 billion, a decrease from the previous week. Industry rotation was rapid, with resource - cycle sectors and power equipment being active. The tech - growth sector faced adjustment pressure [12]. - The value style strengthened due to low - level price rebounds and high - dividend defensive needs. The market is trading "event - driven prosperity improvement" and "assets with clear price signals." The tech sector may face more pressure after the Two Sessions, and mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement should be focused on [13]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market - Last week, the bond yield curve flattened. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 1.80BP to 1.32%, the 10 - year yield fell 0.1BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield dropped 3.8BP to 2.25%. The long - end yield continued to decline, and the term spread narrowed. The bond market was oscillating strongly. Some risk - averse funds may have flowed into the bond market due to stock market fluctuations, and the central bank actively provided liquidity. The local bond issuance was well - received, eliminating previous market concerns. However, after the Spring Festival, the bond market's volatility may increase [4][14]. - US Treasury yields declined last week. The 1 - year yield dropped 3BP to 3.45%, the 2 - year yield fell 2BP to 3.50%, and the 10 - year yield decreased 4BP to 4.22%. The employment market data showed a cooling trend, which led to the decline of the US Treasury yield curve. The CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 0.91% last week, and most sectors declined. Four new public - offering REITs made progress in the primary market [15]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Fund Index Performance | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Since the Beginning of this Year | Since Strategy Implementation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Active Stock Fund Selection | - 2.20% | 3.82% | 7.86% | 55.05% | | Value Stock Fund Selection | - 0.24% | 3.64% | 6.91% | 29.34% | | Balanced Stock Fund Selection | - 1.81% | 2.25% | 6.04% | 37.83% | | Growth Stock Fund Selection | - 2.65% | 3.40% | 8.12% | 56.09% | | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection | - 0.85% | - 5.45% | 3.27% | 15.22% | | Consumption Stock Fund Selection | - 0.57% | 1.17% | 4.13% | 9.11% | | Technology Stock Fund Selection | - 1.98% | 1.83% | 6.27% | 62.66% | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection | - 3.30% | 1.58% | 7.39% | 42.12% | | Cyclical Stock Fund Selection | - 3.76% | 4.70% | 9.95% | 43.97% | [17] 3.2.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Fund Index Performance | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Since the Beginning of this Year | Since Strategy Implementation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Money - enhancing Index | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.14% | 4.63% | | Short - term Bond Fund Selection | 0.04% | 0.15% | 0.17% | 4.79% | | Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Selection | 0.09% | 0.45% | 0.42% | 7.25% | | Low - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection | - 0.04% | 0.51% | 0.95% | 5.56% | | Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection | - 0.63% | 0.42% | 1.15% | 7.54% | | High - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection | - 0.23% | 0.69% | 1.65% | 9.98% | | Convertible Bond Fund Selection | - 0.20% | 3.63% | 6.68% | 32.56% | | QDII Bond Fund Selection | - 0.26% | - 0.13% | - 0.18% | 9.82% | | REITs Fund Selection | - 1.86% | 2.19% | 3.77% | 35.61% | [18] 3.3 Index Positioning and Benchmarks 3.3.1 Equity Strategy Theme Index - Active Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. The core position selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Equity - oriented Fund Index. The benchmark is the CSI Equity - oriented Fund Index [19]. 3.3.2 Investment Style Index - Value Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles. The benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index [19]. - Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with relatively balanced and value - growth styles. The benchmark is the CSI 800 [21]. - Growth Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles. The benchmark is the 800 Growth Index [25]. 3.3.3 Industry Theme Index - Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 15 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). The benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index [27]. - Consumption Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). The benchmark is the consumption theme fund index [31]. - Technology Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Electronics, etc.). The benchmark is the technology theme fund index [34]. - High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Construction, etc.). The benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index [35]. - Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 5 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Petrochemical, etc.). The benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index [39]. 3.3.4 Money - enhancing Index - Money - enhancing Strategy Index: Aims for liquidity management, pursues a curve that exceeds money - market funds. It mainly allocates money - market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The benchmark is the CSI Money - market Fund Index [42]. 3.3.5 Pure - Bond Index - Short - term Bond Fund Selection Index: Aims for liquidity management, ensures drawdown control, and pursues a smooth - upward curve. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The benchmark is 50% * Short - term Pure - Bond Fund Index+50% * Ordinary Money - market Fund Index [44]. - Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Selection Index: Invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, pursues stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds each period, balancing coupon strategies and band - trading operations, and adjusts the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate - bond funds according to market conditions [47]. 3.3.6 Fixed - income + Index - Low - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection Index: The equity central position is 10%, selects 10 funds with an equity central position within 15% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [51]. - Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection Index: The equity central position is 20%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [51]. - High - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection Index: The equity central position is 30%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [55]. 3.3.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index: Selects 5 funds from a sample space of bond - type funds with a convertible - bond investment ratio of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% in the past four quarters, based on an evaluation system [58]. - QDII Bond Fund Selection Index: Selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions [60]. - REITs Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type [61].