投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-12-04 ⼯业硅观点：供需驱动弱，硅价有所回落。 多晶硅观点：市场情绪反复，多晶硅宽幅震荡。 碳酸锂观点：矿⼭复产临近，关注回调机会。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 仓单偏紧，多晶硅领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：仓单偏紧，多晶硅领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，供需延续偏紧格局；工业硅和多晶硅供 需趋松，但多晶硅仓单偏低对近端支撑较强。中短期来看，广期所针 对碳酸锂限仓且上调日内平今仓手续费，投资者情绪一度受到较大负 面影响，短时冲击过后，碳酸锂转为震荡整固，而仓单偏紧的多晶硅 表现相对强势，领涨新能源金属。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较 强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但 需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂长期供需走 向需要重新审视，年度供需拐点可能提前出现。 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号F03093201 投资咨询号Z0 ...

近年来，伴随煤炭价格整体弱势运行，行业企业经营业绩普遍承压。在2025年半年报中平煤股份就阐 述，上半年公司经营环境面临严峻挑战，煤炭市场供需格局持续宽松，价格下行压力显著。展望2025年 下半年，煤炭市场仍面临诸多不确定因素，但随着"反内卷"政策的持续推进，煤价底部基本确立，下半 年煤炭市场供需关系有望逐步改善。 对于本次董事、高管增持事项，平煤股份也表示，为维护公司全体股东利益，公司管理层基于对公司未 来发展的信心和长期投资价值的认可计划增持公司股份。 本次增持股份的资金来源均为自有资金。增持主体承诺，在增持期间、增持完成后6个月内不减持增持 的公司股份。 （文章来源：证券时报） 12月3日晚间，平煤股份（601666）公告，公司收到董事和高级管理人员拟通过上海证券交易所交易系 统以集中竞价交易方式自愿增持公司股份的通知。公司董事和高级管理人员共计16人，基于对公司未来 发展前景的信心与价值认同，计划自公告日（含本日）起1个月内，以其自有资金通过上海证券交易所 交易系统以集中竞价交易方式增持公司股份，合计增持股份金额不少于255.04万元。 本次增持不设置价格区间，增持主体将根据市场整体走势及公司股票价格 ...

12月3日晚间，平煤股份（601666）公告，公司收到董事和高级管理人员拟通过上海证券交易所交易系 统以集中竞价交易方式自愿增持公司股份的通知。公司董事和高级管理人员共计16人，基于对公司未来 发展前景的信心与价值认同，计划自公告日(含本日)起1个月内，以其自有资金通过上海证券交易所交 易系统以集中竞价交易方式增持公司股份，合计增持股份金额不少于255.04万元。 近年来，伴随煤炭价格整体弱势运行，行业企业经营业绩普遍承压。在2025年半年报中平煤股份就阐 述，上半年公司经营环境面临严峻挑战，煤炭市场供需格局持续宽松，价格下行压力显著。展望2025年 下半年，煤炭市场仍面临诸多不确定因素，但随着"反内卷"政策的持续推进，煤价底部基本确立，下半 年煤炭市场供需关系有望逐步改善。 对于本次董事、高管增持事项，平煤股份也表示，为维护公司全体股东利益，公司管理层基于对公司未 来发展的信心和长期投资价值的认可计划增持公司股份。 本次增持股份的资金来源均为自有资金。增持主体承诺，在增持期间、增持完成后6个月内不减持增持 的公司股份。 据披露，此番平煤股份拟参与增持的董事和高级管理人员包括党委书记李庆明、董事长焦振营、董事 ...

Core Viewpoint - The management and directors of Pingmei Shenhua Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (平煤股份) are voluntarily increasing their shareholding in the company, reflecting their confidence in the company's future development and value recognition [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholding Increase - A total of 16 directors and senior management personnel plan to increase their shareholding by at least 2.5504 million yuan within one month from the announcement date [1]. - The increase will be executed through the Shanghai Stock Exchange trading system without a set price range, allowing the management to choose the timing based on market conditions [1]. - Key figures involved in the shareholding increase include Party Secretary Li Qingming and Chairman Jiao Zhenying, who currently hold 63,600 shares and 62,000 shares, respectively [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Pingmei Shenhua is a major coal mining company in China, with a resource volume of nearly 3 billion tons and a leading position in the market for high-quality low-sulfur coking coal [2]. - The company's main revenue source is the sale of coal products, which are primarily sold through long-term contracts and direct sales [2]. - The coal market has faced challenges due to a weak pricing environment, but there are expectations for gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics in the second half of 2025 [2].

Group 1 - QFII institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and others have continued to increase their holdings in A-shares during Q3, with at least 121 stocks seeing increased positions, particularly in sectors like electrical equipment, machinery, hardware, and chemicals [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes strengthening the construction of a network power and promoting future industries, including the sixth generation of mobile communications, indicating a positive outlook for the technology sector [1] - The communication equipment industry's dynamic PE is at the historical 97.3 percentile, indicating high valuations that challenge performance delivery [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" identifies green transformation as a core goal, aiming to consolidate and expand the advantages of the wind and solar industries [3] - Since June 2025, national policies have been introduced to promote healthy and sustainable development in the photovoltaic industry, transitioning from chaotic low-price competition [3] - China's photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to grow significantly, with a projected 45% increase in new installations in 2024 compared to the previous year, marking a nearly 20-fold increase since 2015 [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reveal a split among voters regarding the recent interest rate cut, with concerns that further cuts may exacerbate inflation risks [5] - The U.S. Treasury yields have risen due to stagflation risks, influenced by expectations of a new Fed chair aligned with presidential directives [5] - China's GW satellite constellation launch frequency has significantly increased, indicating a rapid development phase in the commercial space industry [5] Group 4 - The short-term market trend appears weak, with limited new capital entering the market and a lack of significant profit-making opportunities [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index is experiencing a range-bound movement between 3800 and 4000 points, with concerns about individual stock performance despite the index stability [11] - The ChiNext Index has shown a decrease in trading volume over two weeks, suggesting a cautious withdrawal of institutional funds [11]

11 月经济前瞻：需求偏疲软，生产有韧性 ——2025 年 11 月宏观数据预测 核心观点 预计 11 月我国经济运行呈现生产稳中有韧性，金融与需求仍承压的格局：生产端， 预计 11 月工业生产回升，服务业景气放缓，工业稳增长政策发力于装备制造等新 动能领域，出口修复快于内需，规模以上工业增加值预计保持在中高速区间，但 假期效应消退后服务业商务活动略有回落，部分线下消费和地产相关服务景气走 弱；需求端，社零增速继续回落，主要受以旧换新边际减弱、"双十一"前置及汽 车补贴退坡等因素压制；投资方面 1-11 月固定资产投资累计为负、制造业小幅正 增长、基建低位徘徊、房地产投资大幅下行；出口方面，在开拓非美市场和中美经 贸磋商改善预期支撑下保持小幅正增长、进口温和回升。价格端，猪肉与油价整 体震荡偏弱，叠加需求偏弱，使得通胀维持低位，CPI 同比仅小幅正增长，PPI 仍 为负但跌幅收窄，整体通胀弹性不大。金融数据上，社融和信贷新增规模均处偏 弱水平，人民币贷款同比少增、M2 和 M1 增速略有回落，反映实体融资需求不 足。 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 ❑ 消费：预计 11 月社零同比增速仍然承压 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, the manufacturing PMI contraction slowed down, with synchronized improvement in production and demand, accelerated improvement in the price index, and a slowdown in procurement contraction. Meanwhile, the service industry fell into the contraction range, and the construction industry remained below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. More efforts are needed to promote various economic stabilization policies [1][5][35]. - In November, the bond market fell into a "ceiling - floor" oscillation pattern again due to the lack of strong policy and fundamental drivers. Most institutions are waiting for clear guidance from incremental information. The important meetings in December and subsequent key economic data releases are expected to determine the market direction. Historically in December, interest rates tend to decline, but the bullish sentiment in the market has concerns, and the year - end allocation market is yet to start [4][35]. 3. Summary by Directory I. November PMI Data Overview - Manufacturing: The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, remaining below the boom - bust line for eight consecutive months. The production index reached the critical point, external demand improved significantly, the price index improved at an accelerated pace, finished - product destocking accelerated, and procurement contraction slowed [8]. - Non - manufacturing: The service industry fell into the contraction range, with its business activity index dropping 0.7 percentage points to 49.5%. The construction industry showed a slight recovery, with its business activity index rising 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months [11]. II. Manufacturing: Synchronized Improvement in Production and Demand, Accelerated Improvement in Price Index - Production: The manufacturing PMI production index reached 50.0% in November, returning to the boom - bust line after a brief fall into the contraction range last month, up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month, but weaker than the seasonal performance [15]. - Demand: External demand improved significantly, driving overall demand to pick up. The new export order index rose notably, and demand improvement was higher than production. Small - enterprise PMI rebounded, and the high - energy - consuming industry's prosperity level rebounded from a low level [18]. - Price: The "anti - involution" policy advanced steadily, and with the coordinated stabilization of supply and demand, the price index improved at an accelerated pace. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index rose by 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively, and the index difference between them increased to 5.4 percentage points, indicating a narrowing profit margin for enterprises [21]. - Inventory: Finished - product destocking accelerated, and procurement contraction slowed. The raw material inventory index remained flat at 47.3%, and the finished - product inventory decreased by 0.8 percentage points. The enterprise procurement willingness increased, and the procurement volume index rose to 49.5% [24]. III. Non - manufacturing: Service Industry Falls into Contraction Range, Construction Industry Shows Slight Recovery - Service Industry: After the concentrated release of consumption demand during the National Day Golden Week last month, consumer - related service industries declined in the off - season, and the service industry fell into the contraction range. However, financial activities continued to strengthen, and new - energy industries maintained steady growth [28]. - Construction Industry: Construction activities recovered in November, with the construction business activity index rising 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The business activity index of the housing construction industry increased significantly, and that of the civil engineering construction industry remained above 52% [31]. IV. Impact on the Bond Market - In November, the bond market was in a "ceiling - floor" oscillation pattern due to the lack of strong policy and fundamental drivers. Most institutions were in a wait - and - see mode. The important meetings in December and subsequent key economic data releases are expected to determine the market direction. Historically in December, interest rates tend to decline, but the bullish sentiment has concerns, and the year - end allocation market is yet to start [4][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the recent supply - demand pattern may improve, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the disk may have room to rise. For short - term trading, it is recommended to operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both ends are weakening, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and with stricter supervision, the disk is expected to gradually fall back to the fundamentals. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,120 yuan/ton and closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 203,274 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 1 was 6,596 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 3.8716 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. In November, the domestic organic silicon DMC output increased by 3.82% month - on - month and decreased by 1.33% year - on - year. In December, due to the joint emission - reduction plan in November, the industry's overall operating rate is expected to decline month - on - month, and the domestic organic silicon DMC output is expected to decrease by about 3.08% month - on - month compared with November [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and the recent supply - demand pattern may improve. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November, the number of new warehouse receipts registered decreased significantly. The industrial silicon disk is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the disk may have room to rise. Short - term trading should operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures 2601 rose, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 57,705 yuan/ton, a 3.26% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 142,133 lots (144,759 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 338,696 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 28.10, a 3.69% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW, a 4.17% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 11.40% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a - 5.95% month - on - month change [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5]. - The prices of battery cells and silicon wafers remained stable. In November, the output of component enterprises decreased by 2.43% month - on - month compared with October. It is expected that the output in December will continue to decline significantly, and the terminal demand will return to the off - season, with the expected month - on - month decline in the operating rate compared with October being 14.77% [5][6]. - From December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%. From December 3, 2025, the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract shall not exceed 500 lots [6]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November and few new ones were registered, there was more delivery game in the near - month contracts. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large disk fluctuations. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

智通财经APP获悉，中原证券发布研报称，未来随着我国宏观经济持续向好与消费刺激政策的推动，化 工行业下游需求有望继续复苏。随着化工行业整体固定资产投资力度的放缓以及需求复苏的推动，未来 行业整体景气有望边际复苏，盈利有望底部回升。其中部分子行业由于成本端优势、供给端约束和需求 端复苏等积极因素，行业景气度表现相对较好，从而带来结构性的投资机会。维持行业"同步大市"的投 资评级。 中原证券主要观点如下： 下游需求的逐步回升以及行业新增产能投放的放缓 2024年底以来化工行业利润下滑态势逐步放缓，景气逐渐寻底。从板块经营情况来看，受益于行业供需 格局优化、需求复苏等因素带来的景气提升，农化、氟化工以及新能源相关等子行业收入利润实现较快 增长。此外有机硅、粘胶、纯碱、锦纶等产业受行业产能快速扩张，行业竞争加剧等因素影响，利润下 滑幅度较大。 随着反内卷政策的持续推进，在行政监管与行业自律等多项举措作用下，未来化工行业的供给端约束有 望明显加强。同时随着行业固定资产投资力度的下降，行业产能过剩的格局有望逐步扭转，推动景气的 逐步复苏。叠加环保、安监、减排等方面的监管要求的提升，对化工行业供给侧迎来新的约束，推动行 业 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI index for November is at 49.2%, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a minor recovery within the contraction zone [6][7] - The new orders index for November is also at 49.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the new export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, likely driven by the upcoming holiday shopping season [6][7] - The production index stands at 50.0%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating stability at the threshold level [6][7] Macroeconomic Overview - Manufacturing purchasing and inventory intentions are still in the contraction zone, suggesting a need for further improvement in procurement sentiment [6][7] - Fixed asset investment projects, particularly in infrastructure and affordable housing, are expected to gain momentum towards the end of the year and the beginning of the next [6][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up by 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.25% to 13146.72 [3] - The performance of various industry indices shows that non-ferrous metals and telecommunications sectors led with increases of 2.85% and 2.81%, respectively, while agriculture and forestry sectors saw declines [4] Sector Analysis - The manufacturing sector's price index showed a recovery in November, with the main raw material purchase price index rising by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, indicating a high level of activity [7] - The equipment manufacturing and raw materials industries are sensitive to downstream fixed asset investments, with some signs of demand recovery in November [8]