Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9940, opening at 10128 and reporting a decrease of 1.67% to 9916, with a high of 10146 and a low of 9890, indicating a bearish trend in the short term [1] - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on September 17 at 2 PM Eastern Time [3] - According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, while a larger cut of 50 basis points has only a 4% probability [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces a dual mandate of maintaining low inflation while achieving full employment, which can conflict; rising inflation necessitates rate hikes that increase borrowing costs, while high unemployment calls for rate cuts to stimulate hiring [5] - Recent labor market data shows signs of weakness, with job cuts in several sectors, including manufacturing, leading to a significant slowdown in hiring activity, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month from June to August, compared to an expected average of 106,000 for 2024 [6] - The challenge of balancing the conflicting goals of inflation control and employment growth is highlighted as a significant task for the Federal Reserve [7]

Group 1 - The core inflation in the US remains sticky, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.4% in August compared to 0.2% in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][2] - Weekly jobless claims have increased to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, suggesting a weakening labor market [1][2] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point reduction expected, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% [1][2][3] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 76% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts this year due to the deteriorating labor market conditions [2][3] - Economic experts suggest that the Federal Reserve's focus is shifting from inflation to employment and economic weakness, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in September [3][4] - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve is increasing, complicating its policy decisions amid strong inflation and weak employment data [4] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5%, despite recent trade agreements with the US, which have alleviated some economic concerns [5][6] - The Canadian central bank is anticipated to restart rate cuts, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction to 2.5% due to rising unemployment and GDP contraction [8][9] - The UK central bank faces complexities in its monetary policy due to mixed economic signals, with recent inflation data complicating the outlook for further rate cuts [7][8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potentially chaotic meeting, with uncertainty surrounding the number of voting officials due to ongoing court rulings and Senate votes [1][2] - The Fed is expected to vote on interest rate cuts, with futures markets pricing in three cuts for the year, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4] - The outcome of the meeting may depend on the approval of CEA Chair Steven Myron and the potential for dissenting opinions regarding the extent of rate cuts [5][10] Group 2 - Market reactions to the Fed's decisions are anticipated to be influenced by the guidance provided during the meeting and the overall sentiment regarding inflation concerns [7][8] - There is speculation about how individual votes may impact the average outlook of the Fed, with particular attention to any extreme forecasts that could shift market expectations [9][10]

Group 1 - The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but unchanged from the same month last year, indicating overall employment stability [1][4] - The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group, excluding students, was 17.8% in July, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous month and 0.7 percentage points from the same month last year [3] - The unemployment rate for the main labor force aged 30-59 remained stable at 3.9% in August, unchanged from both the previous month and the same month last year [4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate for migrant workers decreased to 4.7% in August, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, which is lower than the national urban surveyed unemployment rate [4] - Major companies have started their campus recruitment in September, which is expected to alleviate the employment pressure on recent graduates [5] - A report indicated that most companies complete 70%-80% of their annual campus recruitment through autumn recruitment, making it a critical period for job seekers [6] Group 3 - Some companies are not only targeting the 2026 graduates but also accepting applications from graduates of 2023-2025, which helps those who are still unemployed [6][7] - Skills training programs are being offered to unemployed graduates, indicating a growing and maturing vocational training system aimed at improving employment prospects [7][8] - The emphasis on skills over degrees is being promoted, which aligns with the goal of creating a skills-oriented society [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **U.S. economy**, focusing on **employment**, **inflation**, and the **AI industry**. [1][2][5][16][17] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Employment Market Challenges**: - The average monthly job creation has dropped from **147,000** to **71,000**, indicating a significant slowdown in the job market. Consumer confidence in reemployment opportunities has reached its lowest since **2013**, with a **39.1%** probability of rising unemployment in the next year. [1][2][4][11] 2. **Inflation Trends**: - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth has rebounded to **2.9%**, with food prices rising significantly. Core inflation is stable at **3.1%**, but the month-on-month growth is close to **0.4%**, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. [1][2][3][11] 3. **Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy**: - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, as the Fed may prioritize employment issues over inflation control, potentially leading to interest rate cuts. Market expectations are leaning towards **two to three rate cuts** this year. [4][10][13] 4. **Market Reactions**: - Despite unfavorable inflation data, the stock market has reached new highs, driven by expectations of rate cuts and declining bond yields. This reflects a market sentiment that prioritizes employment concerns over inflation. [6][7][8] 5. **Gold Prices and Inflation Risks**: - Gold prices have recently surged, indicating market concerns over potential inflation risks associated with rate cuts. Investors are using gold as a hedge against stagflation risks. [9][14] 6. **Oracle's Performance and AI Orders**: - Oracle's recent quarterly performance was below expectations, but future unfulfilled orders have surged to **$450 billion**, primarily driven by AI-related cloud business. This has led to a **30%** increase in Oracle's stock price. [16][17] 7. **AI Industry Growth**: - The AI sector is experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, with U.S. computer equipment imports rising by **72%** year-on-year, driven by demand for AI computing power and data center construction. [17][18] 8. **Economic Cycle Risks**: - While the AI industry is booming, there are concerns about potential over-investment and the impact of economic cycles. A reversal in market sentiment could lead to rapid declines in capital efficiency and expectations. [18] Other Important Insights - The records highlight a notable **downward revision** of non-farm payroll data by **911,000**, the largest since the **2009 financial crisis**. [2] - The **Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index** has also shown a decline, reflecting growing pessimism among consumers regarding the job market. [2] - The potential for a **50 basis point rate cut** is discussed, influenced by political factors and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. [12][15]

预计美联储将降息25个基点，目标是到明年3月将利率从目前的4.5%上限降至3.25%。此外，零售销售 数据预计将因消费者信心低迷和汽车销售下滑而受阻，工业生产也可能再次萎缩，这些都印证了经济放 缓的趋势。 大西洋彼岸的英国，英格兰银行（BoE）在周四的会议上预计将维持利率不变。鉴于英国央行倾向于每 季度降息一次，且已在8月实施降息，本次会议降息的可能性微乎其微。然而，市场将密切关注其前瞻 性指引，以寻找进一步宽松的线索。就业市场是英国央行面临的一个不确定因素，尽管近期调查有所改 善，但秋季的就业数据仍是关键风险，尤其需要确认薪资增长是否正在放缓。 下周，全球金融市场的目光将再次聚焦于各国央行的利率决策会议，一场影响深远的货币政策调整浪潮 即将展开。美联储和加拿大央行预计将分别降息25个基点，而英国央行则可能选择按兵不动，但任何关 于未来宽松政策的暗示都将受到密切关注。 此外，多个国家重要的经济数据，如通胀、就业和工业产出报告，也将陆续发布，为市场提供判断未来 政策走向的关键线索。 在发达市场中，美国美联储的周三会议无疑是重中之重。尽管通胀依然高企，但美国的就业数据却持续 恶化，过去四个月就业增长有限，甚至有数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The inflation in the US is in line with expectations, and the trading patterns of short - and long - term bonds are differentiated. The market expects a 25bp interest rate cut in the September meeting and three rate cuts throughout the year. In the European and Japanese markets, Japanese bonds are stable, while German bonds rise due to hawkish signals. In other major asset classes, global stock indices generally rise except for Russia, cryptocurrencies and precious metals lead the rally in commodities, and there are significant differences in the performance of different currencies against the RMB [4][22][23]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Week's Overseas Macro - Interest Rate Review 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: The US employment market shows further signs of weakness. The number of initial jobless claims increases by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, higher than the market expectation of 235,000 [1][12]. - **Inflation**: The US PPI unexpectedly drops month - on - month in August, with service costs falling by 0.2%. The core CPI remains high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3% and a year - on - year of 3.1% in August. The overall CPI rises more than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year of 2.9% in August [2][13]. - **Business Index**: The US EIA crude oil inventory data shows an unexpected increase. The inventory increases by 3.939 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, against the market expectation of a 1.9 - million - barrel decrease [3][14]. 3.1.2 Review of Major Overseas Market Interest Rates - **US**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bond rates fluctuate by +1bp and - 4bp to 3.66% and 4.06% respectively. The long - and short - term trading patterns are differentiated. The long - term is traded around the recession narrative, and the short - term is traded around the expectation of the number and amplitude of interest rate cuts. The 3 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury auctions have strong, strong, and relatively stable demand respectively [4][15][16]. - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese bonds are stable, with the 1 - year and 10 - year rates fluctuating by +0.9bp and +0.4bp to 0.70% and 1.59% respectively. German bonds rise due to hawkish signals from the European Central Bank, with the 2 - year and 10 - year rates fluctuating by +6.00bp and - 1.00bp to 2.02% and 2.70% respectively [22]. 3.2 Review of Other Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: Global major stock indices generally rise, except for the Russian market. South Korea (+5.94%), Japan (+4.07%), and Hong Kong (+3.82%) perform strongly, while Russia (-2.13%) is the only market with negative growth [23]. - **Commodities**: Cryptocurrencies and precious metals lead the rally. Bitcoin rises by 4.87%, London silver by 3.72%, and London gold by 1.57%. Some industrial products are under pressure, such as the pig index, rebar, coke, etc. [24]. - **Foreign Exchange**: European and Japanese currencies rise against the RMB, while the US dollar and most Asian currencies show small fluctuations. The Russian ruble drops significantly by 4.04% against the RMB [25]. 3.3 Market Tracking - **Government Bond Interest Rates**: The report shows the interest rate fluctuations of 1 - year and 10 - year government bonds in major economies such as the US, Japan, Germany, etc. [33]. - **Stock Indices**: It presents the weekly and historical percentile changes of major global stock indices, showing that most markets are at relatively high historical levels [35]. - **Commodities**: It shows the price changes of major commodities and their historical percentile levels, indicating significant differentiation in performance [38]. - **Foreign Exchange**: It displays the exchange rate changes of major global currencies against the RMB and their historical percentile levels [40]. - **Economic Data Panels**: It includes economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, covering GDP, inflation, employment, and business sentiment indices [42][49][54].

Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices both rising by 1.6%, and the Nasdaq index increasing by 2% this week [2][3] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to decline by 4 basis points [2] - Commodity prices saw a decrease in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices falling by 1.7% and 0.9% respectively, while London gold prices rose by 1.6% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve: A U.S. District Court judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to potentially attend the upcoming FOMC meeting [5] - European Central Bank: The ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2%, marking the second consecutive pause in rate cuts, with little change in inflation outlook [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - Inflation in the U.S. showed moderate growth, with the CPI year-on-year increase rising to 2.9%. Core CPI remained stable, but a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points was noted [9] - Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, reaching the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a cooling labor market [9] - The NFIB small business confidence index reached 100.8, the highest since January 2025, driven by a significant increase in new orders [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - France: The government faced a crisis as Prime Minister Borne resigned after losing parliamentary confidence, with the new Prime Minister likely to struggle for majority support [21] - Germany: Industrial production showed a month-on-month increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, indicating potential for recovery despite ongoing challenges [21]

Inflation and Employment Data - In August, the U.S. CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year to 2.9%, while the core CPI increased by 0.1% to 3.1%, marking a six-month high[2] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market[2] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Actions - The market has fully priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, with the dollar index remaining in a weak adjustment zone[2] - The conflicting data of strong inflation and weak employment may complicate the Federal Reserve's future rate cut path[3] Core CPI and Contributing Factors - The core CPI's 0.35% month-on-month increase in August is the highest in seven months, driven by accelerated tariff transmission and rising rents[3] - Durable goods saw a month-on-month increase of 0.42%, reflecting the impact of tariffs on consumer prices[3] Future Economic Outlook - The sustainability of inflationary pressures is likely, with ongoing tariff impacts and stable wage growth contributing to core inflation[3] - The potential effects of a new tax cut plan on consumer demand and labor market dynamics could influence the Fed's rate decisions in 2026[3] Monetary Policy Considerations - Current conditions suggest a favorable window for monetary policy easing, with a potential 10 basis point rate cut to stabilize the real estate market[4] - Risks include the possibility of the Fed's rate cuts falling short of market expectations, which could constrain domestic monetary easing[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Employment data in the US is under pressure again, leading to a significant decline in US Treasury yields. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting has increased significantly [1][3][9][11]. - The US manufacturing and service industries show different trends, with the manufacturing industry moving from contraction to expansion, while the service industry is still in a good expansion state but with a slowdown in expansion speed. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, contrary to market expectations [2][10]. - Global stock markets are mixed, with European markets generally under pressure. Precious metals in the commodity market hit new highs, and risk preferences are polarized. Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB [4][15][16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Indicator Review Employment - In July, JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, dropping to a 10 - month low (7.181 million, lower than the forecast of 7.380 million and the previous value of 7.357 million) [9]. - In August, the US ADP employment increase was only 54,000, far lower than the expected 73,000 and the previous value of 106,000, indicating a significant weakening of employment growth momentum [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims this week exceeded expectations, rising to 237,000, higher than the forecast of 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000, confirming the cooling trend of the labor market [9]. - The month - on - month growth rate of average hourly wages in August met expectations and was the same as the previous value (0.3%) [9]. - In August, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll employment increase was only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000 and a more than 70% drop from the previous value, further lowering the market's expectations for the employment market [9]. - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 4.2%. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting increased significantly [1][9]. Economy - In August, the US Markit manufacturing PMI increased significantly to 53.0, returning above 50 and indicating that the manufacturing industry moved from the contraction range in July to the expansion range [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected but up 0.7 points from the previous value [2][10]. - In August, the US Markit services PMI was lower than expected and declined from the previous value, but it was still above 50, indicating that the service industry was still in a good expansion state [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI rebounded above expectations, reaching 52.0 and remaining above 50 for three consecutive months [2][10]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory this week increased significantly to 2.415 million barrels, far exceeding the expected - 2.000 million barrels and the previous value of - 2.392 million barrels [2][10]. 3.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review US - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields dropped by 18bp and 13bp respectively, to 3.05% and 4.1%. Employment data put pressure on the market, and the Fed's attitude remains cautious. The market's expectation for a 50bp interest - rate cut at the September meeting has heated up again, but the possibility is still low. Multiple 25bp interest - rate cuts this year are more likely, and the possibility of consecutive interest - rate cuts is small [3][11]. Europe and Japan - The Japanese bond market was stable with small fluctuations. The 1 - year and 10 - year Japanese bond yields fluctuated by - 0.34bp and - 0.8bp respectively, to 0.7% and 1.62%. - The German bond market was also stable. The 2 - year and 10 - year German bond yields fluctuated by 3.00bp and 0bp respectively, to 1.96% and 2.71% [3][14]. 3.3 Other Asset Class Reviews Equity - Global stock markets were mixed. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (+1.36%), the US NASDAQ (+1.14%), and the Indian Sensex30 (+1.13%) led the gains, supported by the rebound of the technology and financial sectors. In contrast, the German DAX (-1.28%), A - shares (-1.18%), and the Vietnamese VN30 (-1.07%) declined significantly, mainly affected by macro - economic and capital - market pressures, and European markets were generally under pressure [4][15]. Commodity - Precious metals performed brightly. London silver rose by 5.01%, and London gold rose by 4.82% this week, breaking through the historical high of $3,587 per ounce, highlighting the surge in market risk - aversion demand. Crude oil and agricultural products generally declined, while some black - series commodities rose slightly. Bitcoin rebounded by 2.12%, showing a polarized risk preference [4][16]. Foreign Exchange - Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB. The US dollar and the euro exchange rates against the RMB rose by 0.08% and 0.10% respectively, while the Japanese yen, Russian ruble, and Indian rupee exchange rates against the RMB fell by 0.71%, 1.14%, and 0.62% respectively [4][17]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the US Treasury auction panel, FED WATCH latest target - rate expectations, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin, the trends of global major stock indices, the weekly changes in bond yields of major global economies, the weekly changes in major commodities, the weekly changes in major foreign exchange rates against the RMB, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [12][13][19][20][22][26][29][32][39][46].