周五美联储主席鲍威尔放鸽称，基准前景和风险平衡变化可能需要联储调整政策立场。市场人士认为鲍威尔讲话标志着政策关注点从“控制通胀”转向“保就业”。市场加大对美联储9月降息的押注，9月降息概率预期从65%升至85%，并恢复全面押注年底降息两次的预期。美股涨幅扩大，标普涨超1.5%，终止五连跌。 ...

鲍威尔表示："由于政策处于限制性区域，基线前景和风险平衡的转变可能需要调整我们的政策立场。" 鲍威尔指出，当前美国经济仍具韧性，劳动力市场接近充分 就业，通胀虽从疫情后高点回落但仍处高位，2025年上半年GDP增速从去年同期增长2.5%放缓至1.2%，同时面临关税重塑全球贸易、移民政策放缓劳动力增长的 结构性挑战。而短期货币政策强调"谨慎推进"，政策利率较一年前更接近中性水平100个基点，处于限制性区间且无预设路径，需平衡通胀上行与就业下行风险。 鲍威尔发声后，交易员加大对美联储9月降息的押注。交易员们恢复完全消化美联储年底前降息两次。 盘面上，美股三大股指早盘大幅拉升，截至发稿，道指、纳指涨近2%，标普500指数涨超1.5%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2.5%。 降息大消息。 当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔举行的全球央行行长年会上发表演讲。演讲围绕两大议题：当前美国经济状况与短期货币政策展望、美联储第 二次货币政策框架公开评估结果。 | 0 1 03 | 价格 = | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | 45669.45 | +1.97% | | .D ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current economic situation suggests an increase in downside risks to employment, which may necessitate interest rate cuts [1][2][4]. Economic Conditions and Outlook - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant policy changes, with the labor market close to maximum employment and inflation having decreased significantly from pandemic highs [5][6]. - Powell noted that while the labor market appears balanced, it is a "peculiar balance" due to a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, indicating rising downside risks to employment [3][8]. - GDP growth has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending [8]. Labor Market Insights - Recent employment reports show a slowdown in job growth, averaging only 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months, significantly lower than the projected 168,000 jobs per month for 2024 [7][8]. - Despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, it remains historically low, with other labor market indicators showing little change [7][8]. Inflation Dynamics - Powell highlighted that short-term inflation risks are tilted upward, while employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging scenario for monetary policy [4][10]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident, with the PCE price index rising by 2.6% over the past year, and core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [8][9]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether the price increases from tariffs will lead to sustained inflation, although long-term inflation expectations remain stable [9][10]. Monetary Policy Implications - The current policy rate is closer to neutral, allowing for cautious consideration of policy adjustments based on evolving economic data and risk assessments [10][11]. - The Federal Reserve's framework emphasizes the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices, with recent revisions aimed at enhancing transparency and accountability [11][15]. Framework Review and Adjustments - The review of the monetary policy framework reflects changes in economic conditions over the past five years, acknowledging the need for flexibility in response to evolving challenges [15][19]. - Key changes include the removal of language emphasizing the effective lower bound (ELB) as a defining characteristic of the economic environment, and a return to a flexible inflation target framework [16][17]. - The revised consensus statement aims to clarify the approach to balancing employment and inflation targets during periods of conflict [18][19].

民生银行首席经济学家温彬告诉记者，上周（8月11日至8月15日）美国三大重要通胀数据先后发布，分 别是消费者物价指数（CPI）、PPI和进口价格指数。除7月份整体CPI略低于预期外，核心CPI、PPI和 进口价格指数均显示出通胀压力，密歇根大学通胀预期再次反弹，美联储官员则再次收紧降息预期。 8月21日的FedWatch数据显示，市场押注美联储9月份降息25个基点的概率为81.2%，较一周前的92.1% 水平有所下降。押注美联储9月不降息的概率为18.8%。 本报记者 韩 昱 8月21日，美联储公布了最新的货币政策会议纪要（以下简称"纪要"）。纪要显示，多数美联储官员在 上月会议中认为美国通胀风险相对就业市场更值得担忧。尽管同时关注到物价压力和就业疲软，但主流 观点认为"通胀上行风险是更严峻的一方"。 往前回溯，美联储在7月份货币政策会议上连续第五次维持利率不变，符合市场普遍预期，但是该次投 票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位美联储理事缺席未投票，两位美联储理事——米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托 弗·沃勒投下反对票。这是自1993年末以来首次出现两名美联储理事对利率决议持反对立场的情况。 纪要也显示，对于美国通胀和就业 ...

Group 1: Market Reaction - The release of a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes triggered panic in the financial markets, leading to a loss of up to $1 trillion in market value for the S&P 500 index within four days [1] - The technology sector was particularly hard hit, with Nvidia experiencing a single-day drop of 4%, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 1.1 trillion RMB [1][5] - The Nasdaq index fell sharply for two consecutive days, while the dollar depreciated and gold surged by $30, indicating a flight to safety [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Internal Conflict - The July meeting minutes revealed significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with only two out of 19 participants supporting a rate cut, marking a rare occurrence since 1993 [2] - Most officials expressed concerns that inflation risks outweighed employment risks, particularly warning about the long-term impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on consumer prices [2] Group 3: Technology Sector Challenges - The technology sector faced severe sell-offs, with Palantir experiencing a six-day decline and losing nearly 24% from its peak, while Intel's stock dropped by 7% due to sudden changes in chip subsidy policies [5] - A report from MIT indicated that 95% of companies' investments in artificial intelligence (AI) have not translated into actual profits, raising concerns about a potential bubble in AI stocks [5] - Howard Marks from Oaktree Capital stated that the U.S. stock market is in the early stages of a bubble, with valuations reminiscent of the 1999 tech boom [5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9% month-over-month in July, with core inflation reaching a five-month high, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [8] - The Labor Department revised down job creation figures for May and July by over 250,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [8] - The Federal Reserve acknowledged three financial vulnerabilities: insufficient liquidity in U.S. Treasuries, unrealized losses in banks, and the threat of stablecoin expansion to monetary policy transmission [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is facing significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among its members [1][2][9] - The FOMC meeting minutes from July 29-30 reveal that most officials prioritize inflation risks over employment concerns, with only two dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [4][7] - The consumer price index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4][5] Group 2 - The political pressure from the White House, particularly from President Trump, is intensifying, with calls for the resignation of Fed officials who oppose his economic policies [1][9] - The Fed's decision-making environment is becoming more complex and politicized, although its independence is expected to remain intact in the short term [9][10] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen significantly, with an 82% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, despite the Fed's cautious stance on inflation [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to announce a new monetary policy framework aimed at addressing the current high inflation environment and redefining the balance between price stability and employment promotion [1][2]. Inflation and Employment Market Changes - Since 2020, the global economy has faced unprecedented shocks, leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy framework focused on ensuring broad and inclusive employment growth before inflation concerns [2]. - The post-pandemic economic recovery has not been smooth, resulting in the highest inflation rates in decades, which has forced the Federal Reserve to reassess its policy objectives [2]. - Currently, the inflation rate in the U.S. has reached its highest level in 40 years, significantly impacting the lives of ordinary citizens and presenting challenges for businesses [2]. Key Content of the New Framework - The new framework is expected to prioritize inflation control, indicating that the Federal Reserve will closely monitor inflation data and may implement stricter monetary policy measures if necessary [3]. - The framework will not completely abandon the "inclusive employment" concept from 2020 but will aim to promote healthy employment growth based on inflation control [3]. - The new framework may revert to a "classic inflation targeting" approach, directly focusing on a 2% inflation target, which could enhance policy transparency and predictability, thereby boosting market confidence [3]. Impact of Policy Adjustments - The announcement of the new framework is likely to have profound effects on financial markets, with a significant reduction in the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the short term, potentially affecting bond and stock market performance [4]. - The implementation of the new framework may influence the prices of safe-haven assets like gold, as high inflation typically drives demand for gold as a hedge, but successful inflation control could lead to decreased demand and lower prices [4]. - The new framework will also impact the international monetary system, as the Federal Reserve's policy moves are closely monitored by other central banks, potentially prompting them to adjust their monetary policies in response to high inflation and employment challenges [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among its officials, particularly concerning inflation risks over employment concerns [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, maintaining the same growth rate as June. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][4]. - The July non-farm employment data was notably weaker than expected, and previous months' data were revised downwards, which undermined the Fed's stance on not lowering interest rates [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The July FOMC meeting minutes indicated that most officials preferred to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with only two dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [1][5]. - The Fed's focus remains on controlling inflation, with officials expressing concerns that tariff policies could lead to prolonged inflationary pressures [2][6]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased, with approximately 82% probability according to CME FedWatch Tool, despite a slight decline from previous levels [4][6]. - The internal division within the Fed between hawkish and dovish views is evident, with a significant number of officials remaining cautious about inflation risks [5][6]. Political Pressure - The White House, particularly President Trump, has been exerting pressure on the Fed, calling for the resignation of certain officials and pushing for a more accommodative monetary policy [1][7]. - Despite political pressures, the Fed's decision-making is expected to remain primarily data-driven, with its independence likely to endure in the short term [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a divergence among policymakers regarding inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs, with a prevailing concern that inflation risks outweigh employment risks [1][2][4]. Economic Outlook - Some participants expect the U.S. economic activity to remain robust, while others predict a continuation of low growth in the second half of the year [3]. - There is a consensus among Fed officials to monitor vulnerabilities in financial markets, particularly concerning the U.S. Treasury market and the implications of recent stablecoin legislation [3][18]. Inflation Risks - A majority of participants believe that inflation risks are greater than employment risks, while a couple of participants view employment risks as more pronounced [4][5]. - Concerns regarding tariffs include their uncertain impact on inflation and the potential for inflation expectations to become unstable [5][6]. Tariff Impact - Many participants noted that the full effects of tariff increases may take time to manifest in consumer prices [9][11]. - Some participants indicated that current demand conditions limit the ability of businesses to pass on tariff costs to prices [12]. - There is a belief that the increase in tariffs may lead to a one-time price increase, but factors like supply chain disruptions could cause persistent inflation [13][14]. Monetary Policy Considerations - Almost all participants agree that the current monetary policy is capable of responding to potential economic developments, with the understanding that the impact of tariffs on inflation remains to be fully observed [15][17]. - Some participants emphasized that the current federal funds rate target range may not be significantly above neutral levels, suggesting a balanced approach to monetary policy [17]. Financial Stability Concerns - Participants expressed concerns about vulnerabilities in the financial system, particularly regarding high asset valuations and the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market [18]. - The discussion on stablecoins highlighted their potential to enhance payment system efficiency and increase demand for supporting assets, including U.S. Treasuries [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]