Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [3]. Core Views - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies and a weak dollar on gold's safe-haven appeal, suggesting that uncertainty in tariff policies may elevate gold's attractiveness [1][34]. - The copper market is experiencing a period of volatility, with prices remaining in a consolidation phase due to macroeconomic uncertainties and inventory dynamics [2]. - The aluminum market is supported by favorable domestic macro policies and declining social inventories, which are expected to bolster aluminum prices [2]. - The lithium sector is facing challenges with low prices leading to production cuts, indicating that the industry still needs to find a bottom [2]. - The silicon metal market is characterized by weak demand and oversupply, leading to a bearish price outlook in the short term [2]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold: The weak dollar and U.S. tariff uncertainties are expected to support gold prices, with recent declines attributed to market corrections [1][34]. - Copper: The market is observing a mixed macroeconomic environment, with a recent PMI reading of 52.3 indicating resilience, but concerns about future economic prospects persist [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic policies are favorable, and social inventories are decreasing, which is expected to support aluminum prices [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Current inventory levels are at 552,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 20,000 tons week-on-week, providing some support for prices [2]. - Aluminum: The theoretical operating capacity of the aluminum industry has increased to 43.865 million tons, with production recovery in certain regions [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices for lithium carbonate have decreased, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 61,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.2% drop [2]. - Silicon Metal: The market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with social inventory at 582,000 tons, indicating a bearish price outlook [2]. Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for gold; Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for aluminum; and Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for lithium [1][2][6].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary and Japan's Finance Minister agree that the current USD/JPY exchange rate reflects fundamentals, emphasizing that exchange rates should be determined by the market [1] - There is an expectation that President Trump will pressure Japan during U.S.-Japan trade negotiations to allow for a weaker dollar and a stronger yen to reduce the U.S. trade deficit [1] - Nomura Securities notes that one of Trump's main goals in a potential second term is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, typically through tariffs and a weaker dollar [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government may continue to link foreign exchange issues with tariff negotiations, pressuring Japan for concessions, as this is not the first time the U.S. has pressured for yen appreciation [2] - Japan may face significant economic risks from rapid yen appreciation, making it difficult to accept Trump's demands, with Nomura Securities estimating a potential GDP decline of 0.67% to 1.41% over two years due to yen appreciation [2]

Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index, which fell below 100, indicates a potential continuation of a "weak dollar" trend, impacting global financial dynamics, especially for export-dependent entities and forex investors facing asset devaluation pressures [1][3] - The depreciation of the dollar leads to wealth erosion for holders of dollar-denominated assets, prompting many investors to convert dollars into other currencies, resulting in significant inflows into Asian currencies, with the Japanese yen rising by 8.5%, the South Korean won by 7.21%, the New Taiwan dollar by 9.55%, and the Thai baht by 4.36% [3] - The stability of the Chinese yuan, which has only appreciated by 1.93%, is attributed to strong economic fundamentals and effective policy adjustments by the People's Bank of China [3] Group 2 - Significant fluctuations in currency exchange rates can negatively impact a country's export competitiveness, as a stronger domestic currency makes goods more expensive for foreign buyers, while a weaker currency can undermine investor confidence and lead to capital flight [5] - The recent appreciation of Asian currencies is largely a result of the passive weakening of the dollar rather than improvements in the underlying economic fundamentals of these countries, indicating a high degree of external influence and unpredictability [5] - In the context of the ongoing US-China trade tensions, currency stability is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and demonstrating resilience against external shocks [5] Group 3 - In response to external pressures, the People's Bank of China has implemented a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, which will lower deposit interest rates and mortgage burdens for consumers [7] - The interest rate cuts may reduce the attractiveness of the yuan for investors holding dollars, thereby mitigating excessive speculation against the yuan and lowering the risk of it being shorted [7] - China's proactive monetary policy signals a shift away from passive alignment with US monetary policy, reflecting its growing independence and ability to manage its foreign exchange reserves effectively [7] Group 4 - The ongoing US-China trade conflict has escalated into a currency war, with China actively working to reduce its reliance on the dollar, which may signify the beginning of a new cycle in the global financial landscape [9] - The long-term weakening of the dollar could indicate a relative decline in its influence, as emerging economies rise and the global economy becomes more multipolar [9] - As the world's second-largest economy and the largest exporter, China has both the capability and necessity to establish an independent monetary policy framework to lessen the impact of external shocks [9]

突然彻底爆发！ 最近几个交易日，A股虽然没有开盘，但A50表现强劲，上一交易日，A50大涨近1%，今天亦一度大涨超 0.7%。而且这一大涨发生在美股期指跌幅扩大的背景之下。今早，纳指期货跌超1%，标普500指数期货跌 0.8%，道指期货跌约0.7%。 长假期间，中美经贸传来的积极信号可能是人民币资产上涨的直接原因。商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸对话磋 商情况答记者问指出，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通 过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。 另外，五一假期的出行数据可能也是一大助力。国铁集团客运部负责人介绍，"五一"假期，铁路探亲、旅游等 出行需求旺盛，客流呈现强劲增长态势，4月30日至5月2日，全国铁路旅客发送量连续3天同比增长超10%，特 别是5月1日突破2300万大关，达到2311.9万人次，刷新了历史最高纪录。 避险和结汇 来自上海清算所的数据显示，在全球金融市场波动加剧、避险情绪升温的背景下，外资加码人民币债券步伐持 续加快。数据显示，4月1日至18日外资净买入人民币债券规模显著提升，达332亿美元。中国宏观经济稳定、 ...

文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期在美国关税政策的影响下，商品整体呈现偏弱态势，短期市场受困于捉摸不定的 美国政策，以及不明朗的经济前景。2025与1984年前后，美国经济与政策的存在共 性，我们复盘20世纪80年代的大宗商品走势，寻找未来商品行情演绎的方向。 当前美国与1984年的美国，在 经济环境、政府压力、汇率、政策 方面存在四大共 性，商品长期走势存在趋同的可能。当然， 历史并不会简单重复，在阶段性的行情表 现中，或存在走势的分化 。 01 商品价格周期性：1977、1984与2025 工业金属具有较高的价格弹性，且对经济、政策的变化极为敏感。为方便复盘，我们选 取CRB现货指数作为商品价格的代表，选取道琼斯工业指数作为美股的代表，并采用月 度均值，忽略较为短期的波动。可以发现在70年代，CRB金属的走势与2018年至今十分 相似，先从低位大幅上行，在高位明显回落之后，到达比上涨前更高的价格中枢并趋势 上行；从美股的表现来看，两个阶段的趋势性变化也有相似之处。 我们也可以找到80年代初与近五年市场走势的相似性。如果单纯地刻舟求剑，会认为近 年的价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent weakening of the US dollar index since March is attributed to unexpected strength in the euro due to fiscal stimulus plans and market speculation around "Trump Recession," rather than the narrative of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" being the main cause [1][4]. Group 1: "Mar-a-Lago Accord" Concept - Stephen Miran's concept of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" suggests that the dollar's trajectory will follow two phases: an initial phase of strong dollar due to tariffs, followed by a weaker dollar phase due to currency agreements [2][12]. - The first phase, characterized by tariffs, is currently in effect, aligning with the strong dollar narrative promoted by the Trump administration [12]. Group 2: Impact of "Mar-a-Lago Accord" Narrative - The narrative surrounding the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" has circulated widely in the market, but it has not significantly influenced pricing, despite its weak dollar target seemingly correlating with the dollar index's decline [4][12]. - Concerns about a US recession are not as pronounced as they were in Q4 2023, indicating that the market's apprehension regarding a downturn is less than half of previous levels [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook for the US Dollar Index - The expectation is that the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" narrative will not significantly impact the market in the short term, especially with the current economic data showing no clear signs of weakness [17]. - If Trump's tariff policies exceed expectations and the euro returns to a stronger fundamental position, the dollar index may experience a rebound [17].

高关税和美国经济、外交利益存在矛盾。 在经济方面，高关税难以弥补减税带来的财政缺口，财政赤 字仍可能大幅扩张。短期内，进口需求难以迅速减少，关税成本大概率会被转嫁给消费者，推高国内价 格水平。中长期来看，即使企业回流，美国制造业并不具备竞争优势，反而可能引发成本推动型通胀上 升，进而对联储政策空间形成制约。在外交方面，高关税可能引发美国与他国、特别是盟国间的利益冲 突。一旦引发国与国之间竞相加征关税，则可能导致全球需求萎缩。 要点 特朗普的竞选策略延续了其第一任期的风格，尤以贸易保护和大规模减税引人关注。这一"增关税、减 税收"的组合，意在财政上取得平衡，更重要的是通过对外筑起贸易壁垒、对内减税放松，来吸引制造 业回流，推动美国再工业化。然而，特朗普的政策主张可能存在多个矛盾。 "再工业化"与市场规律间存在矛盾。 战后，美国逐渐从"工业强国"转向"金融强国"，从"生产者"转型为 "财务投资者"。这一转变主要由市场力量推动，本质上是美国对外投资的收益率显著高于本土投资。当 前，美国生产成本高企，美国制造业回流并不符合资本利益，换句话说，单凭市场力量实现难度较大。 而如果美国逆市场力量推动制造业回流，可能需要投入 ...