智通财经APP获悉，截至4月25日当周，标普500指数在关税担忧缓和与财报季开启的双重利好下已突破 5500点整数关口，令指数距离高盛设定的5300点短期目标已高出225点，较5900点的12个月目标价也仅 剩375点的上行空间。截至 4 月 25 日收盘，标普 500 指数已涨至 5525.21 点。但在这轮由科技股领涨的 行情背后，高盛首席美股策略师戴维·科斯汀却敲响警钟：下周将有41%的标普500成分股披露业绩，企 业投资决策可能因政策不确定性加剧而踩下刹车。 面对经济放缓信号，高盛建议投资者聚焦现金回报能力。科斯汀观察到，"近几个月市场明显偏好派息 股而非成长股，这种模式通常出现在经济下行周期"。数据显示，当前标普500指数股息率已升至1.8%， 与十年期美债收益率倒挂幅度收窄至30个基点，显示债券替代效应正在显现。 随着财报季进入核心时段，市场将迎来关键验证期。高盛特别提示，需密切关注企业对于资本支出计 划、库存水平及供应链布局的表述，这些细节将揭示政策不确定性对企业决策的实质性影响。在财政赤 字与货币政策转向的双重压力下，美股或将迎来估值逻辑的重构时刻。 在具体支出类别中，人工智能巨头撑起了资本支 ...

Group 1: Core Concerns - The Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report indicates that 73% of respondents identify "global trade risk" as their primary concern, more than double the percentage from the previous report in November [1][3] - Half of the respondents express concerns about "policy uncertainty," reflecting anxiety over the current policy environment, which includes trade, fiscal, and monetary policies [1][4] - "Sustainability of U.S. government debt," which was the top concern in last year's report, has dropped to third place, yet remains a significant issue due to rising debt levels and potential impacts on market confidence in the dollar [1][5] Group 2: Market Implications - The escalation of global trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and other major economies, poses a significant threat to global economic growth and financial market stability [3] - Policy uncertainty complicates market predictions and investment decisions, increasing market volatility [4] - The complex and uncertain market outlook necessitates diversified investment strategies and enhanced risk management practices to mitigate exposure to trade and policy risks [6] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Companies and investors are advised to diversify their investment portfolios to reduce risk exposure from single markets or assets [6] - Strengthening risk management, especially in supply chain management and market forecasting, is crucial to address risks arising from trade policies and uncertainty [6] - Continuous monitoring of policy developments is essential for timely adjustments in investment strategies and business plans [6]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.74% to 5525.21 points, the Nasdaq rising 1.26% to 17382.94 points, and the Dow Jones increasing slightly by 0.05% to 40113.5 points [4] - The S&P 500 index recorded a cumulative increase of 4.59% for the week, while the Nasdaq saw a rise of 6.73%, and the Dow Jones increased by 2.48% [4] Group 2: Tesla's Performance and Developments - Tesla's stock surged nearly 10%, closing at $284.95 per share, with a market capitalization of $917.8 billion [6] - The U.S. government is easing regulations on autonomous driving, allowing non-commercial test vehicles to bypass certain compliance processes, which supports Tesla's plans for launching the Cybercab fleet in Texas [9] - Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings report showed a significant decline in net profit by 70.6% year-over-year, with total revenue at $19.34 billion, down 9.3% compared to the previous year [9] Group 3: Financial Stability Concerns - The Federal Reserve's latest financial stability report highlights rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty, and concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt as top potential risks to the financial system [10] - 73% of respondents in the survey indicated that global trade risks are their primary concern, more than double the percentage from the previous report in November [15] - Half of the respondents expressed that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, with an increase in this concern compared to the same period last year [15]

美联储金融稳定报告：全球贸易战和政策不确定性是金融稳定的最大风险 美联储周五公布的最新金融稳定报告显示，全球贸易风险上升、总体政策不确定性以及美国债务的可持 续性高居美国金融体系潜在风险的榜首。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金融风险进行半年 一次的调查。73%的受访者表示，全球贸易风险是他们最担心的问题，这一比例是11月份报告的两倍 多。半数受访者认为，总体政策不确定性是最令人担忧的问题，这一比例较去年同期有所上升。调查还 发现，与近期市场动荡相关的问题受到了更多关注，27%的受访者担心美国国债市场的运转，高于去年 秋季的17%。外国对美国资产的撤资和美元的价值也在担忧名单上上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that after the unexpected tariff policy on April 2, 2025, which caused liquidity shocks, gold prices surged and briefly exceeded $3,500 per ounce, before quickly retreating to $3,300 due to fluctuating attitudes from Trump regarding tariffs. The medium to long-term trend for gold prices remains upward, with a projected range of $3,209 to $3,905 per ounce in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Recent Gold Price Trends - Recent rapid increases in gold prices are characterized by significant volatility, driven by physical demand, Asian capital inflows, and a substantial decline in the US dollar index [2]. - Gold price volatility has risen sharply, currently at the 89.2 percentile historically, as uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has led to increased safe-haven investments in gold [2]. - The divergence between COMEX gold net long positions and gold price trends indicates a shift from speculative pricing to a supply-demand pricing model, with physical investment funds like SPDR Gold ETF increasing their holdings [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, after adjustments, a favorable allocation window for gold is anticipated, with a focus on monitoring gold price volatility trends [3]. - If Trump's tariff stance significantly eases or if negotiations with other countries progress positively, gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations and a downward trend in volatility [3]. - Key fundamental events to watch include the progress of US tariff policy negotiations and short-term fluctuations in central bank gold purchases, which have been a core driver of gold price increases in 2023 [3]. Group 3: Medium-Term Considerations - The ongoing decline in the credibility of the US dollar and its reserve status may lead to a sustained increase in gold price levels [4]. - The backdrop of de-globalization suggests a long-term downtrend for the US dollar index, exacerbated by rising fiscal deficits and the challenges of implementing tax cuts [4]. - High policy uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is expected to continue supporting gold prices, as the current environment is markedly different from 2018 [4]. Group 4: Quantitative Analysis - The quantitative model projects that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,209 and $3,905 per ounce in 2025, based on a framework that has shown a high correlation with historical gold prices [5]. - The model identifies four key pricing factors for gold since 2022: global central bank gold reserves, US fiscal deficit rates, economic policy uncertainty in the US, and the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds [5].

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasizes the urgent need for countries to manage their fiscal affairs effectively amid high risks and uncertainties in the current environment [2] - The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor report indicates that recent tariff measures announced by the U.S. and retaliatory actions from other countries have increased financial market volatility, weakened global growth prospects, and heightened risks [2][3] - The IMF forecasts that global public debt will rise by 2.8 percentage points by 2025, reaching over 95% of GDP, with this trend expected to continue [2] Fiscal Pressure and Debt Levels - The IMF warns that under extreme adverse scenarios, global public debt could reach 117% of GDP by 2027, marking the highest level since World War II, exceeding baseline predictions by nearly 20 percentage points [3] - The rising demand for permanent expenditures, such as defense, is further increasing fiscal pressure on countries already facing high debt levels and strained fiscal conditions [2] - If policy uncertainties escalate, debt levels may rise beyond current estimates, exacerbating the fiscal challenges faced by nations [3]

经济衰退担忧持续影响美股 美国关税政策的僵局正在对其经济造成损害并打击投资者的信心。多项经济指标表明，关税政策有可能将美国乃 至全球多地推向经济衰退的边缘。而反复无常的关税政策，不仅没有实现特朗普政府缩减贸易逆差和促使制造业 回流的目标，反而使美国承受通胀攀升和经济下行的压力。 在美国经济增长动能放缓以及政策不确定性增加等因素的拖累下，美股于2月中旬开始见顶回落，直至3月中下旬 才出现一波反弹。到了4月，特朗普政府对非美国家宣布加征关税，给金融市场带来新一轮的冲击，阻断了美股的 反弹之路，使得避险情绪大增，美国金融市场出现历史上较为少见的"股债汇三杀"风险。 近期，不走寻常路的特朗普对美联储的货币政策表示了不满，使得美联储的独立性遭受考验，这意味着政策的不 确定性与经济下行形成了共振，美股短期或出现超跌反弹的情况。但从中期来看，美股跌势可能尚未结束，需要 等到美联储重新启动降息以及关税谈判取得进展才能有所改变。 | 0.30 0.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

美联储哈玛克：在政策不确定性之际，提前行动的时机并不合适。 ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 戴润芝 环球时报记者 张旺】国际货币基金组织（IMF）22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，将2025年全球经 济增长预期下调至2.8%，较今年1月预测值低0.5个百分点。路透社、法新社等西方主流媒体均表示，这是美国政府的新关税政策对世界经济的影 响。IMF首席经济学家在接受采访时表示，政策制定者应该找到一种方法，减少美国关税引发的贸易政策不确定性，以提振全球经济增长。当 天，美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的报道列举出美国关税政策"颠覆全球经济的证据"：韩国海关总署21日报告称，该国4月前20天的出口额同比下 降5.2%，其中对美下滑14.3%。《华尔街日报》引述荷兰国际集团经济学家的话表示，韩国的数据表明，美国的关税正开始损害国际商业。澳大 利亚"对话"网站称，美国政府关税行动的经济影响已广为人知，但要明白，经济事务很少局限于商业范畴。美国政府的关税将在可预见的未来给 国际事务带来更大的不稳定。中国常驻联合国副代表耿爽21日在安理会海地问题公开会上发言时说，美国居然对海地这一联合国列名的最不发达 国家加征10%的所谓"基准关税"，何其粗暴，何其荒唐，何其悲哀。 " 全球经济体系正在 ...

贸易紧张局势的迅速升级，以及极高水平的政策不确定性，预计将对全球经济活动造成重大冲击。 国际货币基金组织22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》（简称《报告》），预计2025年美国经济增速将放 缓至1.8%，较1月预测值低0.9个百分点，在发达经济体中下调幅度最大。报告认为，政策不确定性加剧、贸易 紧张局势以及需求势头减弱为预期目标下调主要原因。 校对： 赵燕 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 同时，《报告》将包括美国、英国和加拿大在内的发达经济体2025年的总体通胀预期上调至2.5%，较1月份的 预测上调了0.4个百分点。 《报告》还将2025年全球经济增长预期从年初的3.3%下调至2.8%，2026年预计为3%。 报告指出，全球增长放缓的主要原因是美国关税政策的急剧变化及由此带来的高度政策不确定性。自2025年年 初以来，美国对主要贸易伙伴和关键行业宣布了多轮关税措施，最终在4月2日实施了几乎全面的关税。尽管目 前部分原定加征的关税已被暂停，但这些措施与反制措施叠加，使美国及全球的关税水平升至近一个世纪以来 的最高点 ...