研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周四铁矿收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 2128 万吨，平均日产 193.5 万吨，日产环比下降 2.2%；生铁 1915 万吨，平均日产 174.1 万吨，日产环比下降 3.0%；钢材 2130 万吨，平均日产 193.6 万吨，日产环比增长 3.2%。 2、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量 1471 万吨，环比上一旬减少 142 万吨，下降 8.8%；比年初增加 57 万吨，增长 4.0%；比上月同旬增加 57 万吨， 增长 4.0%；比去年同旬减少 64 万吨，下降 4.2%，比前年同旬增加 251 万吨，增长 20.6%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 3、Mysteel：1 月全国开工 1329 个项目，总 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 06 日星期五 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.04%，收于2268 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价小幅下跌。东北地区深加工 | | | | | 企业收购价2171元/吨，较前一日跌1元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2303元/吨，较 | | | | | 前一日跌3元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日南北港口稳定。锦州港15%水二等玉米收购价2 | | | | | 270-2280元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2400元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 3、仓单方面，大商所数据显示截 ...

二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周四持仓量增仓 49444 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 681405 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3086，最高 3113，收于 3101 元/吨，下跌 9 元/吨，跌幅 0.29%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3230 元/吨， 相比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 129 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 2 月 5 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比下降 8.15 万吨至 191.68 万吨，公历同比下降 1.61 万吨，产量本周下降较多，且处于近几年 相对低位。临近春节，需求转弱，钢厂季节性减产。后续关注春节后产量 复苏情况。 需求端：表需大幅下降（符合春节前工地停工的季节性规律），截 至 2 月 5 日当周，表需数据 147.64 万吨，周环比减少 28.76 万吨，年同比 减少 37.51 万吨，需求大幅走弱，临近春 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong, with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [5]. - In the short - term, the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range. For trading strategies, it is advisable to build long positions on dips for the single - side, and to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70 points; CY05 decreased by 150 points, and CY09 decreased by 70 points. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 118,425, and its open interest decreased by 4,804 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 25 yuan/ton, while the FCY IndexC33S price decreased by 349. Other spot prices such as Cot A, Indian S - 6, etc., had different changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In cotton and棉纱, there were various spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5,835, down 80 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 31, 2026, Pakistan's 2025/26 new cotton market volume reached 859,000 tons, a 0.6% year - on - year increase. Textile mills' purchases were 773,000 tons, up 0.2% year - on - year, and unsold new cotton was 54,000 tons, a 25% year - on - year decrease [4]. - As of January 31, 1,099 cotton processing enterprises in China conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 7.262 million tons. Among them, 1,018 enterprises in Xinjiang inspected 7.166 million tons, and 81 enterprises in the inland inspected 95,000 tons [4]. - As of January 31, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, a 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, 22.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and 3.3 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years [4]. 3.2.2 Trading Logic - There are reports that Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease by 266,000 mu to 3.621 million mu, a 7% reduction. However, several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang, which will benefit cotton consumption [5]. 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Remain on the sidelines [6]. - **Options**: Remain on the sidelines [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton traded sideways. As logistics began to take holidays, the trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened. Spinning mills focused on order fulfillment and inventory preparation, and the overall inventory decreased. The operating rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline, while that in Xinjiang remained high. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable, with some manufacturers testing price increases. Most inland spinning mills will finish their holidays around the 25th of the twelfth lunar month, and only a small number of Xinjiang spinning mills will take the Spring Festival holiday [7]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills reported a decrease in new orders. It is expected that the number of mills taking holidays will increase significantly this weekend. The finished - product inventory of cotton fabric mills remains high, and the price of cotton fabric is expected to remain stable in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2% [9]. - Yesterday, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [10]. - Option trading strategy: Remain on the sidelines [11].

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/5 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7914 | -10 | -0.13% | 15,230 | 7.39% | 55,725 | 0.61% | | PK610 | 8232 | -6 | -0.07% | 80 | -25.23% | 2,693 | -0.88% | | PK601 | 8210 | -22 | -0.27% | 36 | -21.74% | 32 | 6.67% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 8000 | 8000 ...

根据媒体报道，中国隐形期王中财期货在次轮白银价格暴跌中成为最大赢家。 根据上海期货交易所披露数据和彭博社的测算，中财期货在1月下旬在高位精准简历大规模空头头寸，自从上周五（1月30日）白银市场转向以 来，中财期货通过做空白银，在短短 3个交易日内赚了超过36亿人民币。 边锡明十多年前移居直布罗陀（Gibraltar），并长期在那里生活、遥控管理中财集团并参与交易。 他率先在2022年中期低位建仓黄金，并在2023年初大幅加码。 他并非一次性押注，而是在关键技术位置逐步建立仓位，每轮调整都踩在节奏点上。在2023年四季度到2024年初的主升浪中，他通过期货主力合 约与场外结构化工具结合，实现高效杠杆增益。 在今年1月白银价格加速上涨、多头情绪高涨的背景下，中财期货是中国内地期货市场中少数坚持大规模做空的机构之一。根据上海期货交易所披 露数据，截至2月2日，该公司持有的白银期货空头头寸相当于约484吨实物白银，按当时价格计算，名义价值超过100亿人民币。 中财期货实质是边锡明个人独资的期货公司。 作为中财期货的创始人，边锡明在交易圈内以低调务实和定期发布"自我反思"式文章而闻名。他曾在博客中写道： 事实上，在这轮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market experienced a decline in the majority of its main contracts on February 5, 2026, with significant drops in several commodities, indicating a bearish trend in the market [6][8]. Price Movements - Major declines were observed in the following commodities: - Silver futures (沪银) dropped by over 10.85% - Lithium carbonate (碳酸锂) fell by 10.68% - Platinum (铂) and tin (沪锡) decreased by over 7% - Copper (沪铜 and 国际铜) and BR rubber fell by over 3% - Other commodities such as canola (菜籽), industrial silicon (工业硅), caustic soda (烧碱), coking coal (焦煤), and aluminum (沪铝) dropped by over 2% [6][7][9]. - On the other hand, some commodities saw price increases: - The shipping index (集运欧线) rose by over 3% - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil increased by over 1% [6][7].

全国独立焦化厂全国平均吨焦-55元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈利-41元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利2元/ 吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-92元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利0元/吨。 【期现】 截至2月4日收盘，焦炭期货震荡上涨走势，以收盘价统计，焦炭主力2605合约+55.0(+3.21%)至1770.0， 焦炭远月2609合约+41.5(+2.66%)至1831.5，5-9价差走弱至-61.5。主流焦企开始提涨焦炭价格于1月28日 正式落地，30日执行。吕梁准一级湿熄冶金焦出厂价格报1290元/吨(第1轮提涨价格)，日环比+0.0元/ 吨，对应厂库仓单1670元/吨，基差-100.0；日照准一级冶金焦贸易价格报1480元/吨，环比+10.0元/吨， 对应港口仓单1745元/吨(对标)，基差+25.0。 【利润】 【供给】 截至1月29日，全样本独立焦化厂焦炭日均产量62.8万吨/日，周环比-0.5万吨/日，247家钢厂焦炭日均产 量47.0万吨/日，周环比+0.1万吨/日，总产量为109.8万吨/日，周环比-0.4万吨/日。 【需求】 截至1月29日，日均铁水产量227.98万吨/日，环比-0.12万吨/日；高炉开工率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market is firm with rising prices due to increased pre - holiday demand for construction site stocking, more factory orders, and active hedging by futures - cash traders, along with strong reluctance of traders to sell. The 03 contract has a valuation repair due to low inventory and expected decrease in later shipments. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the trading activity in the spot market is expected to decline gradually, and the weak demand remains unchanged. So, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude towards the current price [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On February 4, 2026, the price of log 2603 was 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 6.5 yuan from the previous day with a 0.81% increase; log 2605 was 802.0 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; log 2607 was 807.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.5 yuan with a 0.06% increase. The basis of the main contract was - 57.5, down 6.5 from the previous day. Most spot prices at ports remained unchanged, while the CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine increased by 2.73% to 113 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was unchanged at 125 euros/JAS cubic meter [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On February 5, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.940 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. The import theoretical cost calculated with a 15% over - length was 771.89 yuan, up 20.66 yuan from the previous day with a 3% increase [2] Supply: Monthly - In December 2025, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 109.5 million cubic meters, down 46.32% from November. The number of ships at the port was 29, down 47.27% from November [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 30, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 242 million cubic meters, down 7 million cubic meters from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 177.10 million cubic meters, down 6.20%; in Jiangsu, it was 40.76 million cubic meters, up 23.63% [2][3] Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume - As of January 30, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.17 million cubic meters, up 0.01 million cubic meters from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.89 million cubic meters, up 8%; in Jiangsu, it was 1.59 million cubic meters, down 18% [3]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 05 日星期四 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 ICE3 月合约结算价 62.24 跌 7 点，5 ...