Core Insights - WTI crude oil futures for November closed down by $0.02, a decrease of 0.03%, settling at $57.52 per barrel, approaching the May 5 closing price of $56.18 [1] - Brent crude oil futures for December fell by $0.28, a decline of 0.46%, to $61.01 per barrel [1] - Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil futures dropped by 1.04%, priced at $62.81 per barrel [1] Natural Gas Market - NYMEX November natural gas futures surged over 12.93%, reaching $3.3970 per million British thermal units [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. exports to Mexico reached a record high of 7.5 billion cubic feet per day in May [1] - Colder weather in the U.S. and North America triggered a wave of speculative short covering [1] Other Energy Products - NYMEX November gasoline futures closed at $1.8302 per gallon [1] - NYMEX November heating oil futures settled at $2.1921 per gallon [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The futures and spot prices of urea have rebounded in resonance, but there is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals. Without substantial positive factors, it is expected to consolidate at a low level [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - Urea opened flat and moved lower intraday but ended up rising. The upstream factories' shipping atmosphere has improved, and prices have risen slightly. The ex - factory price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,500 to 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5]. - Xinjiang Zhongneng Wanyuan's 2 million - ton production capacity was ignited, and it is expected to produce products in the middle of the month. The daily output has exceeded 190,000 tons, and high - level daily production is expected before large - scale gas and production restrictions [1]. - The autumn fertilizer season for downstream users is basically over, and terminal fertilizer stocking is the main activity. After the futures have been rising for several days, the market's purchasing sentiment has improved. The operating load and inventory of compound fertilizer factories have both increased, and the operation will gradually pick up, but mostly with pre - orders. The finished product inventory will enter an accumulation trend [1]. - The inventory in urea factories has increased. On one hand, agricultural demand is gradually ending, and purchases have decreased. On the other hand, shipments are hindered due to environmental protection requirements [1]. [Futures and Spot Market Quotes] - **Futures**: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,625 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved lower, rose intraday, and finally closed at 1,633 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The trading volume was 272,255 lots (-16 lots). Among the top 20 long - short positions of the main contract, the long position decreased by 2,118 lots, and the short position increased by 1,059 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of +1,099 lots, Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of +310 lots; Guotai Junan had a net short position of -686 lots, and Zheshang Futures had a net short position of -880 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The shipping atmosphere of upstream urea factories has improved recently, and prices have risen slightly. The ex - factory price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,500 to 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,900, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. [Fundamental Tracking] - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was -63 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton) [7]. - **Supply Data**: On November 5, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.34% [8]. - **Enterprise Inventory Data**: As of November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. The pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.29 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.19% [12].

Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral [5] - PX: Neutral [6] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Neutral for overall view, with cautious bias in some aspects [7] Core Views - PTA has fair supply - demand, with a slight reduction in supply - side load. It faces seasonal inventory accumulation pressure from November to December, is highly affected by cost, and has limited improvement in supply - demand [5][44]. - PX has a high domestic supply, fair demand, and a favorable expected pattern. Its floating price remains strong, PXN valuation is reasonable, and it fluctuates with cost in the short - term [6]. - Ethylene glycol has some increased maintenance, fair demand, but lacks driving force in the seasonal inventory accumulation period. High supply causes pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [7][112]. Summary by Related Catalogs Demand and Polyester Situation - Domestic demand is fair, with terminal fabric sales improving, finished - product inventory decreasing, and the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing rising to 86%, 76%, and 82% respectively. Polyester load reached 91.7% by October 31st, with inventory pressure easing and expected high - level operation in November [9][14]. - Polyester profit is slightly compressed due to the rebound of raw materials. Long - filament profitability is reduced, while bottle - grade and staple - fiber cash flows are fair [15]. PTA Situation - PTA maintenance plans in November are not few. YS Dahua and Shandong Weilian slightly reduced their loads, and Ineos, Sichuan Energy Investment, Dushan 1, and Honggang have maintenance plans. Dushan Energy's new device has started production [36][44]. - As of October 31st, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 220.7 tons, up 0.6 tons. In - port and in - warehouse goods slightly decreased, and credit warehouse receipts increased [40]. - PTA supply - side maintenance volume is high, demand is fair, and the inventory accumulation pressure from November to December is slightly reduced. Processing fees are still low, and it is mainly affected by cost in the short - term [44]. PX Situation - The US gasoline inventory continues to decline, and the octane number is stable and strong. The economics of gasoline blending has improved, while the Asian disproportionation profit has been compressed [56][59]. - The PX domestic load is at a high level of 87%. Wushi Petrochemical has restarted after maintenance, and Fujia plans to restart a production line. Asian load is 78%, with some devices having maintenance or restart plans [6][65]. - The PX balance sheet is expected to be tight, the floating price has improved, and PXN is around $240, with a reasonable valuation. It is affected by cost in the short - term [70]. Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of October 31st, the overall load of ethylene glycol is at a high level of 76%, and the coal - based load is 83%. Some devices have restarted, some are under maintenance, and there are maintenance and load - reduction plans in November and December [78][82]. - Overseas, Maoming Petrochemical is shut down, Taiwan Nanya is under maintenance, and some US and Canadian devices have restarted or are under maintenance. Imports may increase in November [97]. - As of November 3rd, the port inventory of MEG in East China is about 56.2 tons, up 3.9 tons. The expected arrival volume is high, and short - term port inventory is expected to accumulate [107]. - From November to December, ethylene glycol maintains seasonal inventory accumulation, with high supply pressure and general driving force, and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [112].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 11172, opening at 11230 and reporting a temporary price of 11219, down 1.23% [1] - The highest price reached was 11283, while the lowest was 11103, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The Shanghai silver market saw a drop to around 11145, closing near 11200, and is currently in a trading range of 11000 to 11600 [2] Group 2 - The potential for a rebound in silver prices is noted, with an upward target likely around 11500/11600, contingent on breaking the 11600 level [2] - The market sentiment suggests effective high short and low long trading strategies within the established range until a breakout occurs [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] Report's Core View - The third round of price increase for coke has been recognized by the mainstream market due to the continuous rise in coking coal spot prices. However, as the downstream demand of steel mills enters the off - season and the molten iron output is expected to decline, the supply shortage in the coking coal spot market is expected to ease. The near - month contracts of coking coal and coke are seeing long - position reductions and price drops, while the far - month contracts are seeing short - position increases and price drops. In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summary by Related Contents Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1253.0, down 2.45% compared to the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2601 closed at 1729.0, down 2.40% compared to the opening of the day session. In the night session yesterday, Jm2601 closed at 1259.0, up 0.48% compared to the day - session close; the J2601 contract closed at 1734.0, up 0.29% compared to the day - session close [1] Important News - The central bank announced that on November 5th, it conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months (91 days) to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [1] - On November 4th, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the coke procurement price for the third time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on November 5th, 2025 [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to adjust the delivery quality standards for coking coal and implement the new rules for newly listed contracts after the rule release. This adjustment includes modifying the scope and premium/discount of standard and substitute products for strength indicators, as well as the premium/discount for the substitute product scope of sulfur content indicators [1] Market Logic - The continuous rise in coking coal spot prices has led to cost - driven recognition of the third round of coke price increases in the mainstream market. Today's coking coal auction prices remain relatively strong. But with the downstream demand of steel mills entering the off - season and the expected decline in molten iron output, the supply shortage in the coking coal spot market is expected to ease. The near - month contracts of coking coal and coke are seeing long - position reductions and price drops, while the far - month contracts are seeing short - position increases and price drops [1] Trading Strategy - As coking coal prices start to decline significantly, coking coal and coke are considered bearish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the available inventory days of downstream coking and steel enterprises. After the end of environmental protection production restrictions, there may be a phased replenishment demand. Short positions this week can take profits at low prices to avoid the impact of supply - demand mismatches on the market caused by the concentrated resumption of production of steel mills next week [1]

Group 1 - The futures market has listed a total of 148 futures and options products, with trading times organized for over a hundred products [3][5][12] - Specific trading times for various futures and options products are provided, including day and night sessions [6][7][8] - Certain products, marked as special varieties, require separate trading permissions to participate, such as soybean oil, PTA, and stock index futures [12] Group 2 - The introduction of foreign traders to palm oil options occurred on June 18, 2021, and to soybean options on December 26, 2022 [5] - Trading hours for different exchanges are detailed, including the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [6][7] - The document emphasizes the need for traders to understand the specific requirements for trading special products [11][12]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on cotton and cotton yarn in the agricultural products industry, dated November 4, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,535, down 65; CF05 at 13,555, down 60; CF09 at 13,725, down 55; CY01 at 19,795, down 125; CY05 at 19,845, down 75; CY09 at 20,085, unchanged [2] - Trading volume and open interest of each contract had different changes, e.g., CF01 trading volume decreased by 3,913 and open interest decreased by 6,089 [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,841 yuan/ton, down 19; Cot A was 76.85 cents/pound; FC Index:M: arrival price was 75.69, up 0.09; etc [2] Price Spreads - Cotton and cotton yarn had various spreads, such as cotton 1 - 5 month spread at -20, down 5; 5 - 9 month spread at -170, down 5; etc [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On November 4, 2025, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1803 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous day, with expected short - term upward fluctuations [4] - This year's cotton yield per mu in Shaya County was generally 380 - 450 kg/mu, a decrease of 30 - 70 kg/mu compared to last year, possibly due to improper fertilization and low September temperatures [4] - As of October 28, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas decreased significantly, and the quality indicators of US cotton declined [4] Trading Logic - In November, with new cotton on the market, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Supply is expected to increase but the increase may be less than previously thought. Demand enters the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate with limited upside and downside. Sino - US trade policies may have a large impact [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. Close previous long positions [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [7] - Options: Hold off [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although market confidence improved last week, downstream demand did not improve significantly. Cotton has large hedging pressure. Most cotton yarn prices were stable, with only a few varieties selling well. Follow downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The all - cotton grey fabric market is weak, and fabric mills purchase raw materials as needed. Downstream customers place mainly rigid orders and are cautious [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On November 3, 2025, for example, CF601C13400.CZC closed at 260, down 10%; CF601P13000.CZC closed at 25, down 34.2% [11] Volatility - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly. Implied volatilities of different options varied, e.g., 7.5% for CF601 - C - 13400 [11] Option Strategies - Hold off on options [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts of 1% tariff cotton price spreads, cotton basis for different months, cotton yarn - cotton spreads, and cotton inter - monthly spreads [15][18][22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly with traders' negotiations and few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate following the cost side, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center is expected to weaken in the near term. This week, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and the import supply is abundant this month. The long - term supply surplus expectation persists, putting pressure on the market sentiment. Attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - side. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the rebound of the disk, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened. Trades were mainly between traders, with individual polyester factories making inquiries. There were transactions at different basis levels for different delivery times. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 73. The inventory of PTA factories decreased by 0.04 days to 4.03 days, and the 20 - day moving average is upward with the closing price above it. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. In the short term, prices are expected to follow the cost side to fluctuate [5][6]. - **MEG**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market negotiation was average. The morning session saw a weak and volatile disk, and the spot was traded at a premium of 74 - 78 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Around noon, the disk dropped rapidly, and the spot was traded at a low of below 4040 yuan/ton. The afternoon market was mainly in a low - level adjustment. The external market price of ethylene glycol also weakened. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.7 tons to 49.8 tons, and the 20 - day moving average is downward with the closing price below it. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. This week, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and the import supply this month is abundant. The long - term supply surplus expectation persists [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, including changes in production capacity, load, and supply - demand gap in different months [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, including changes in production capacity, load, and supply - demand difference in different months [12]. 3.5. Price - There are multiple price - related charts, including bottle - chip spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, and inventory analysis of related products from 2020 - 2025 [14][28][31][35][38][40] - **Bottle - Chip**: It includes the spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of PET bottle - chips [14][17][21][22] - **PTA**: It involves the basis, inter - month spread, and processing fee of PTA [28][24][60] - **MEG**: It includes the inter - month spread, basis, and profit of MEG [31][35][61] - **Polyester Products**: It shows the production profit of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) [64][65][67] - **Upstream and Downstream of Polyester**: It presents the operating rates of the upstream (PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) of the polyester industry [51][55]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal (coking coal and coke) sector is "Oscillating with a Bearish Bias" [1] 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that the coking coal and coke markets will oscillate with a bearish bias in the short term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Conditions - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1284.5, down 0.12% from the day - session opening; the main coke contract J2601 closed at 1771.5, down 0.31% from the day - session opening. During the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1287.5, up 0.23% from the day - session close; J2601 closed at 1779.0, up 0.42% from the day - session close [1] Important News - The Ministry of Finance has newly established a Debt Management Department, responsible for formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, etc [1] - Shanxi Jianlong began to overhaul a 1080m³ blast furnace on November 1st, affecting daily hot metal production by about 0.42 million tons. After that, it will overhaul a 1380m³ blast furnace. From November 1st to 5th, two rebar rolling lines were shut down, affecting daily output by about 0.7 million tons. After the bar production resumes, the plate output will decrease [1] - Heavy - pollution weather level - II emergency responses were launched in cities in Hebei such as Tangshan, Qian'an, etc. starting from 18:00 on November 3rd [1] Market Logic - Yesterday, the coking coal spot market had strong transactions. The supply of coking coal tightened, and traders were hoarding and reluctant to sell. For coke, the rapid rise in costs has promoted the third round of price increases, which are expected to be implemented soon. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production dropped significantly, but the tight supply of raw materials and the downstream's need to maintain production inventory support the strong prices of raw materials. However, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly yesterday, rising sharply at the opening and then回调. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the upper pressure on coking coal and coke remains at 1320, and they should be regarded as oscillating with a bearish bias [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of a trader, He Yue, who overcame significant financial challenges to achieve success in futures trading, emphasizing that cognitive understanding is more important than technical skills in trading [1][4]. Group 1: Trading Journey - He Yue's trading career began in 2008, characterized by a cycle of gains and losses, leading to a debt of 1.5 million yuan due to short-term trading strategies [2]. - A pivotal moment occurred in 2018 when He Yue invested 200,000 yuan in palm oil futures, which eventually led to a significant profit that cleared his debts [2][3]. - Since 2019, He Yue adopted a trading strategy focused on "extreme varieties," selecting either deeply undervalued or significantly overvalued assets for investment [2][3]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - In early 2020, He Yue invested heavily in soybean meal futures at 2,850 yuan/ton, enduring a drop to 130,000 yuan but ultimately profiting by selling at 3,700 yuan/ton after holding for six months [3]. - He Yue successfully shorted tin futures in 2021 and identified a lucrative opportunity in BR rubber options in 2023, demonstrating his ability to capitalize on market trends [3]. - Looking ahead to 2024, He Yue plans to focus on stock index futures, believing in a long-term bullish trend supported by solid fundamentals and government policies [3]. Group 3: Key Components of Trading Success - He Yue emphasizes that trading success relies on three key components: cognitive ability, execution, and mental strength [4]. - Cognitive ability involves understanding macroeconomic policies and industry logic, which helps in making informed trading decisions [5]. - Execution requires a systematic approach to trading, where He Yue's strategy includes selecting extreme varieties, limiting positions to 30%, and adhering to stop-loss and take-profit levels based on fundamental analysis [6]. - Mental strength is crucial for maintaining confidence in one's trading system, especially during challenging market conditions [7][8].