Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Futures Daily Report - Date: November 7, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Analyst: An Zhiyuan [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On November 6, 2025, the glass futures market was active but prices were under pressure. The glass market is in a stage of game between "supply contraction expectations and weak demand reality." Short - term sentiment is boosted by cold - repair expectations in the Shahe area, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals face triple pressure of over - capacity, high inventory, and weak terminal demand. Future trends will depend on policy implementation and inventory reduction speed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On November 6, 2025, the glass FG2601 contract fluctuated throughout the day, closing with a small decline of about 0.45% at 1101 points. The trading volume was 1,741,879 lots, and the open interest was 1,707,110 lots, an increase of 18,149 lots from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of 12 glass futures contracts showed a mixed trend. Except for a small increase in the FG2511 contract, all other contracts had small declines. The total open interest of the variety was 2,149,502 lots, an increase of 36,742 lots from the previous day, with the open interest of the active FG2601 contract increasing by 18,149 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - For the active glass FG2601 contract, the basis remained relatively stable at 27 yuan/ton on the day [7]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of warehouse receipts today was 219, a decrease of 34 from the previous day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - This week, the average operating rate of the float glass industry decreased by 0.43% to 75.92%, and the average capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 80.42%. From October 31 to November 6, the national float glass output was 1.1261 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% month - on - month and an increase of 1.87% year - on - year. As of today, the national float glass daily output was 159,100 tons, the lowest in 15 weeks [9][10]. 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The glass FG2601 contract showed a similar trend to soda ash, with a small - scale fluctuation today. It is still in a post - rebound oscillatory technical pattern. Today's K - line closed as a positive line, and the daily K - line was close to the middle track of the BOLL line, with the BOLL line showing a narrowing pattern [11]. 3.4 Market Outlook - On November 6, the main glass futures contract closed at 1,101 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decline from the previous trading day. The market was active but prices were under pressure. The glass market is in a game stage, and future trends depend on policy implementation and inventory reduction [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot-rolled Coil, Manganese Silicon [1] - **Bullish**: Coke, Coking Coal [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: Output and apparent demand decreased month-on-month, showing off-season characteristics of weak supply and demand. Inventory decreased month-on-month, with a decline weaker than the seasonal pattern. The fundamentals are generally balanced but weak. It is currently near the previous low, testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels [1][4]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Apparent demand and output both declined, and inventory increased slightly against the season, indicating certain inventory pressure. The falling hot metal output weakens the demand support for raw materials. It runs in a medium-term range and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [1][4]. - Iron Ore: This week, hot metal output decreased significantly month-on-month due to environmental controls in Tangshan and maintenance of some loss-making steel mills. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The arrival of foreign ores has increased significantly, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bearish. With the exhaustion of phased macro positive factors, the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1][6]. - Coke: The third round of price increases is gradually being implemented, and there are differences in the market regarding the fourth round. Coke enterprises' profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in a loss state. The falling hot metal output, poor steel mill profits, and increased blast furnace maintenance are observed. However, the raw material inventory level is moderately low, and the short-term restocking enthusiasm is acceptable. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and it follows the coking coal price to run strongly [1][9]. - Coking Coal: Affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, the coal mine开工率 has decreased again month-on-month. The uncertainty of the political turmoil in Mongolia remains. Currently, the coal mine inventory level is low, pre - sales orders are sufficient, and the overall shipment situation is still good. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains tight, and the price is expected to run strongly [1][12]. - Manganese Silicon: The supply in the production area has decreased slightly but is still at a high level in the same period. Downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase but at a slower pace. The price of manganese ore at ports has slightly increased, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price [1][16]. - Ferrosilicon: The开工率 in the production area continues to increase, downstream demand weakens marginally, and inventory continues to increase significantly compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to the situation of re - warehousing after warrant cancellation. Although the short - term coal price is running strongly and provides some cost support, its own fundamentals have turned to a loose state, and it is advisable to short on rallies [1][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3037 with a rise of 13; Hot-rolled Coil 01 is at 3256 with a rise of 3. There are also detailed price and spread data for different contracts and spot prices [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Rebar shows off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand, and hot-rolled coil has inventory pressure. Both are affected by the falling hot metal output [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar tests the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels; hot-rolled coil runs in a medium - term range and may fluctuate in the short term [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Hot metal output decreased due to environmental controls and mill maintenance. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory, and the arrival of foreign ores has increased significantly. The static fundamentals are neutral to bearish [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, as production cuts and increased supply put pressure on the ore price [7]. 3.3 Coke - **Price and Data**: There are detailed data on futures contracts, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and profit data [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The third - round price increase is being implemented, and there are differences in the fourth - round increase. Coke enterprises' profits are slightly improved but mostly in loss. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bullish, following the coking coal price to run strongly [10]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price and Data**: There are detailed data on futures contracts, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and other data [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, and the uncertainty of Mongolia's political situation remains. The supply - demand pattern is tight [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bullish, with the price expected to run strongly [13]. 3.5 Ferrous Alloys - **Price Information**: There are detailed price, spread, and weekly production and inventory data for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Manganese silicon supply has decreased slightly but is still high, and downstream demand has weakened. Ferrosilicon's开工率 has increased, and inventory has increased significantly [16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish on manganese silicon due to short - term cost support; bearish on ferrosilicon as its fundamentals are loose, and it is advisable to short on rallies [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - From November 1st to 6th, PE production increased by 2.67% to 660,700 tons week-on-week. From October 24th to 30th, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 2.4% and the packaging film operating rate down 1.3%. As of October 29th, the inventory of PE producers decreased by 19.16% to 416,000 tons week-on-week; as of October 24th, the social PE inventory decreased by 3.30% to 527,400 tons week-on-week. From October 25th to 31st, the cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 3.53% to 7,389 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the profit decreased by 234.86 yuan/ton to -360 yuan/ton; the cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 1.12% to 6,845 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the profit increased by 5.57 yuan/ton to 197.86 yuan/ton. L2601 rebounded after a decline, closing at 6,805 yuan/ton. In November, there will be less new maintenance capacity for PE, and two new units of Guangxi Petrochemical are about to be put into operation, resulting in high supply pressure. Affected by the restart of 400,000 tons of Lianyungang Petrochemical and 450,000 tons of Baolai units this week, PE production increased week-on-week. The downstream greenhouse film is in the peak season, and the operating rate of agricultural film is expected to remain high; the orders for packaging film are being delivered successively, and the operating rate is expected to gradually weaken. The inventory of producers and social inventory will continue to decline, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The accumulation of API and EIA inventories in the US, combined with the strengthening of the US dollar, has led to a recent weak and volatile international oil price. In the short term, L2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 6,740 - 6,850 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,805 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,805 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,886 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,935 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The trading volume was 305,198 lots, up 14,736 lots; the open interest was 578,172 lots, up 25,025 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was -81, up 6. The buy volume of the top 20 futures positions was 486,769 lots, up 23,574 lots; the sell volume was 565,354 lots, up 21,632 lots; the net buy volume was -78,585 lots, up 1,942 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,877.83 yuan/ton, down 43.48 yuan; the average price in East China was 7,114.76 yuan/ton, down 20.95 yuan. The basis was 72.83, down 34.47 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.57 US dollars per barrel, down 0.02 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 577.5 US dollars per ton, up 1 US dollar. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 731 US dollars per ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 741 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 80.86%, down 0.59% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 51.3%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, down 0.16%; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 49.53%, up 2.42% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.91%, up 0.34%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.37%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 10.64%, up 0.72% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side has reduced production, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8920 - 9120 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling continues to decrease, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52550 - 54160 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the demand was 87,000 tons, a 7.44% decrease from the previous week, and demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 2.61 million tons, with silicon wafers, battery cells in loss, and components in a neutral profit state. Organic silicon inventory is 56,300 tons (low), with a production profit of - 520 yuan/ton (in loss), and a comprehensive开工 rate of 68.56% (unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 735,000 tons (high), with an import loss of 327 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost - side**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On November 5th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 168,100 tons, a 0.24% increase; major port inventory is 124,000 tons, a 0.81% increase [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply - side production scheduling decreases, demand recovery is at a low level, cost is near the historical average, and cost support has increased. Industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8920 - 9120 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for November is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a 3.32% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 189,300 tons, a 2.49% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in loss. In November, the production scheduling is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. In October, the battery cell output was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the battery cell export factory inventory was 3.85GW, a 36.04% decrease. Currently, battery cell production is in loss. In November, the production scheduling is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease. In October, the component output was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease from the previous month. In November, the expected component output is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - **Cost - side**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,760 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,240 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On November 5th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1155 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes above MA20 [8]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net long, and long positions are decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply - side production scheduling continues to decrease, demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continues to decline, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52550 - 54160 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of some contracts have increased, such as the 01 contract price rising from 8885 to 9020, a 1.52% increase [15]. - The spot prices of different types of industrial silicon in East China remain mostly unchanged [15]. - The inventory of some regions and ports has changed, with social inventory decreasing slightly, and sample enterprise and major port inventories increasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of some contracts have decreased, such as the 01 contract price dropping from 53715 to 53355, a 0.67% decrease [17]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remain mostly unchanged [17]. - The weekly total inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week [17]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the price spread between 421 and 553 [20]. - **Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprise inventories [25]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and monthly production by specification [28][29]. - **Cost**: It shows the historical cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions [35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: It presents the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and polysilicon [37][40][64]. - **Downstream Trends**: It details the price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of industrial silicon's downstream industries, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [43][51][61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - L2601 oscillated downward, closing at 6,814 yuan/ton. The impact of newly added and previously shut - down maintenance devices expanded, leading to a decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. The overall downstream PE operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate of agricultural film rising and that of packaging film falling. Production and social inventories decreased, with less inventory pressure. The cost of oil - based LLDPE increased and losses deepened, while the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased and profits rose slightly. With planned restarts of some devices, PE production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. In the short term, L2601 is expected to oscillate weakly, and the daily K - line should focus on the support around 6,770 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene decreased: the closing price of the main futures contract was 6,814 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 6,814 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 6,901 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 6,959 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. - Trading volume and open interest increased: trading volume was 290,462 lots, up 60,286 lots; open interest was 553,147 lots, up 20,008 lots. - The 1 - 5 spread was - 87, down 7. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 80,527 lots, down 3,112 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) decreased: in North China, it was 6,921.3 yuan/ton, down 30.43 yuan; in East China, it was 7,135.71 yuan/ton, down 9.52 yuan. The basis was 107.3, up 34.56 [2]. Upstream Situation - The prices of raw materials decreased: the FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.59 US dollars/barrel, down 0.75 US dollars; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 576.5 US dollars/ton, down 5.88 US dollars. The prices of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 80.86%, down 0.59% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of packaging film was 51.3%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of pipes was 32.17%, down 0.16%; the operating rate of agricultural film was 49.53%, up 2.42% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.91%, up 0.34%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.37%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 9.92%, down 0.05% [2]. Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, PE production decreased by 0.72% to 643,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.59% to 80.87%. The overall downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.4%, with the agricultural film operating rate up 2.4% and the packaging film operating rate down 1.3%. - As of October 29th, the inventory of PE production enterprises decreased by 19.16% to 416,000 tons; as of October 24th, the social inventory of PE decreased by 3.30% to 527,400 tons. - From October 25th to 31st, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 3.53% to 7,389 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 234.86 yuan/ton to - 360 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 1.12% to 6,845 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 5.57 yuan/ton to 197.86 yuan/ton [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand. For industrial silicon, there is an increase in cost support, supply-side production scheduling is rising, and demand recovery remains at a low level. For polysilicon, supply-side production scheduling is decreasing, and overall demand shows a continuous decline [6][8]. - Industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8785 - 8985, and polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52890 - 54540 [6][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.44% decrease from the previous week, and the demand was 87,000 tons, also showing a decline. Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level, with silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss state, and components in a profitable state. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of -520 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 68.56%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 211 yuan/ton [6]. - **Basis**: On November 4th, the spot price of non-oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 415 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week. Sample enterprise inventory was 168,100 tons, a 0.24% increase from the previous week. The inventory of major ports was 124,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the 01 contract was upward, and the futures price closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply-side production scheduling is increasing, approaching the historical average level. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. Industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8785 - 8985 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for November is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of silicon wafers was 14.24GW, a 3.32% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 189,300 tons, a 2.49% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. The production of battery cells in October was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 3.85GW, a 36.04% decrease from the previous week. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for November is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease from the previous month. The production of components in October was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease from the previous month. The expected production of components in November is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry is 38,760 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,240 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On November 4th, the price of N-type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -1515 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was lower than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the 01 contract was upward, and the futures price closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply-side production scheduling is continuously decreasing, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support is strengthening. Polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52890 - 54540 [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - The prices of most industrial silicon contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract of East China non-oxygenated 553 silicon at 8885 yuan/ton, a 2.79% decrease from the previous day [15]. - The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Sichuan showed different trends [6][15]. - The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also showed different trends, with the production of sample enterprises decreasing by 2.36% compared to the previous week [15]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - The prices of most polysilicon contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract at 53,715 yuan/ton, a 4.19% decrease from the previous day [17]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained relatively stable, with some showing slight fluctuations [17]. - The weekly production of silicon wafers was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease from the previous week [17]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Price Difference Trends - The basis of the SI main contract and the price difference between East China 421 and 553 showed different trends over time [20]. 5. Polysilicon Disk Price Trends - The price and trading volume of the PS main contract, as well as the basis of the main contract, showed different trends in the short term [23]. 6. Industrial Silicon Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses and ports, as well as the weekly inventory of SMM sample enterprises, showed different trends over time [25]. 7. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of SMM sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production of industrial silicon by specification showed different trends over time [28][29]. - The operating rates of SMM sample enterprises in different regions also showed different trends [30]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang showed different trends over time [35]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends, with factors such as production, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [37][40]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - **DMC**: The daily capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, and production of DMC showed different trends over time. The price of DMC also showed different trends in different years [43]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed different trends over time [45]. - **Import - Export and Inventory**: The monthly import and export volumes and inventory of DMC showed different trends over time [49]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, the import cost and profit of ADC12, and the import - export situation of Chinese unforged aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [52]. - **Inventory and Production**: The monthly production of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots showed different trends over time [55]. - **Demand**: The monthly production of automobiles and the export of aluminum alloy wheels showed different trends over time [56]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The cost, price, inventory, production, and operating rate of polysilicon showed different trends over time [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends, with factors such as supply, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [65]. - **Silicon Wafer Trends**: The price, production, inventory, demand, and net export of silicon wafers showed different trends over time [68]. - **Battery Cell Trends**: The price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [71]. - **Photovoltaic Component Trends**: The price, inventory, production, and export of photovoltaic components showed different trends over time [74]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory Trends**: The prices of photovoltaic coatings, the import - export of photovoltaic films, the production of photovoltaic glass, the prices of high - purity quartz sand, and the import - export of solder strips showed different trends over time [77]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends**: The silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components showed different trends over time [79]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: No specific content was provided in the text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for rebar 2601 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the market sentiment is weak and steel prices are searching for a bottom weakly [2]. - The steel price is likely to continue its weak trend of searching for a bottom. The supply of rebar has increased, and although the demand has improved seasonally, the fundamentals have not improved. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weak market sentiment and steel prices searching for a bottom weakly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment is weak, and the ferrous metals are declining. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. The output of construction steel mills has been increasing, and the rebar output has reached a high for the year, while the inventory level is high, increasing the supply pressure [3]. - The demand for rebar has improved seasonally, and high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The downstream industries have not improved, and the demand will weaken at the end of the peak season [3]. - In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support, and the subsequent trend is expected to continue the weak bottom - searching state [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 4 一、沥青行情概览 表1. 昨日行情概览 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.3174%，环比增加 0.239个百分点，全国样本企业出货33.13万吨，环比增加13.98%,样本企业产量为 55.6万吨，环比增加0.72%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.8万吨，环比减少10.05%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.5%，环比增加0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a consolidation phase. The supply is increasing while downstream procurement is weak, with rising inventory pressure on enterprises. The cost increase and corporate losses form a bottom - support, but high supply and weak demand restrict price increases. It is expected to continue consolidating in the short term. For glass futures, the market is also in an oscillating trend. High supply and continuous inventory accumulation are suppressing prices, and the peak - season demand has not materialized. It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [6][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillating phase. Last week, the domestic soda ash market had a loose supply - demand situation, with prices oscillating weakly. Supply increased while downstream procurement was weak, and enterprise inventory pressure rose. Cost increases and corporate losses provided bottom - support, but high supply and weak demand restricted price increases. It is expected to continue consolidating in the short term. The futures price fluctuated at a low level, and the short - term trend was more affected by macro and sector sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic soda ash market had a narrow - range oscillation last week, with different regional performances. Supply remained high, demand was weak, enterprise inventory accumulated, and downstream procurement was cautious. The short - term supply - demand pattern was expected to remain loose, prices were expected to be stable with a weak trend, and the trading center might move down. The soda ash futures oscillated weakly, and the expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic soda ash market had a loose supply - demand situation last week, with prices oscillating weakly. Supply increased while downstream procurement was weak, and it was expected to continue consolidating in the short term. The futures price fluctuated at a low level, and the short - term trend was more affected by macro and sector sentiment. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly soda ash开工率, production, light - weight and heavy - weight inventory, basis (daily), and the production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China (weekly). The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is - 4.6, the main force's tendency is not obvious; the capital energy is - 50.8, indicating a large outflow of funds; and the multi - empty divergence is 79.6, suggesting a certain risk of market reversal [11][15][17][20]. Glass Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass market is in an oscillating trend. Last week, the floating - glass futures price oscillated weakly. High supply and continuous inventory accumulation suppressed prices, causing them to rise and then fall. The national enterprise total inventory reached 66.613 million heavy boxes, a three - month high. The number of deep - processing order days dropped to 10.4 days, a year - on - year decline of over 20%. The peak - season demand did not materialize. The production - end operating rate remained above 76%, and there was an expectation of new production lines being ignited in the fourth quarter. The short - term price was difficult to rise trend - wise due to inventory suppression, and the far - month contracts had limited decline due to cost support. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [28]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic floating - glass spot prices generally declined last week. The market supply - demand was loose, enterprise inventory accumulated, downstream procurement was cautious, and prices were under pressure. It was expected to remain weak in the short term. The glass futures fell unilaterally and then stabilized. Weak demand and inventory accumulation continuously suppressed the market, and cost support was limited with insufficient rebound momentum [31]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The floating - glass futures oscillated weakly last week. The enterprise total inventory reached a three - month high, and the deep - processing orders decreased by over 20% year - on - year. The peak - season demand was lower than expected. The current operating rate remained high, and supply pressure persisted. The short - term price may continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory and restocking trends [32]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly floating - glass production, operating rate, production cost and production profit of the floating process using natural gas as fuel, basis (daily), and ending inventory. The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is - 65.1, the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is 1.5, indicating that the funds are basically stable; and the multi - empty divergence is 99.9, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [34][38][41][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling is increasing and is near the historical average level, while demand recovery remains low, but cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 9000 - 9200 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production scheduling is continuously decreasing, and the demand-side shows a continuous decline in production across silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, with overall demand in a continuous recession. Cost support has stabilized. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 55620 - 57200 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 87,000 tons, a 7.44% decrease from the previous week, with demand remaining sluggish [6]. - **Cost**: The cost support has increased during the dry season. The production of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is in a loss of 3144 yuan/ton [6]. - **Basis**: On October 31, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.24%, and major port inventory increased by 0.81% [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Position**: The net position of the main contract is short, with an increase in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon production was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production for November is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 14.24GW, a 3.32% decrease from the previous week; inventory was 189,300 tons, a 2.49% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss. In October, battery cell production was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease from the previous month; last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 6.02GW, a 15.21% decrease from the previous week, and currently, production is in a loss. In November, the scheduled production of battery cells is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease from the previous month. In October, component production was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease from the previous month; in November, the expected component production is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory of components decreased by 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory decreased by 5.70%. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of polysilicon N-type material in the industry is 37,990 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,010 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 31, the price of N-type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -4160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Position**: The net position of the main contract is long, with an increase in long positions [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon contracts decreased, with the 01 contract of East China non-oxygenated 553 silicon at 9100 yuan/ton, a 0.60% decrease from the previous day [14]. - The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.24%, and major port inventory increased by 0.81% [14]. - The weekly production of sample enterprises was 48,725 tons, a 2.36% decrease from the previous week [14]. Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon contracts increased, with the 01 contract at 56,410 yuan/ton, a 2.66% increase from the previous day [16]. - The weekly production of silicon wafers was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week; the weekly inventory of silicon wafers was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease from the previous week [16]. - The monthly production of photovoltaic battery cells was 59.27GW, a 2.79% decrease from the previous month; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery cell external sales factories was 6.02GW, a 15.21% decrease from the previous week [16]. - The monthly production of components was 48.1GW, a 3.61% decrease from the previous month; the domestic monthly inventory of components decreased by 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory decreased by 5.70% [16].