Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market presents a complex situation with different trends for various varieties. Some are expected to be volatile, some show short - term strength or weakness, and investors need to adopt corresponding strategies according to different market conditions [2]. Summary by Directory Daily Selected Views - NI2602 is expected to be volatile and bullish; ethanol is in a weak trend; EG2605 and JM2605 are expected to be volatile and bullish; SR2605 is short - term bullish; for AU2602, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. All - Variety Daily Reviews Equity Indexes - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded. The main line is unclear, and the trading volume is insufficient to support an upward breakthrough. The trend is expected to be range - bound, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [2]. Treasury Bonds - With continuous loose liquidity, treasury bond futures have recovered. In the short - term, pay attention to the central bank's MLF injection and end - of - month treasury bond trading. For the unilateral strategy, consider buying T contracts on pullbacks; for the spot - futures strategy, participate in the 2603 contract's positive spread and basis widening strategy [2]. Precious Metals - Without clear negative factors, the short - term precious metals market will remain strong. Hold long positions, but beware of the risk of speculative long - position liquidation at high levels. For platinum and palladium, there is still a short - term correction risk [2]. Shipping and Metals - The EC main contract is in a downward trend, and short - term volatility is expected. Steel products are reducing production and inventory, and prices will remain range - bound. Iron ore prices are supported by the expected inventory replenishment of steel mills. Coking coal has rebounded from oversold levels, and coke is expected to be volatile. For non - ferrous metals, different varieties have different trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. New Energy and Chemicals - New energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different trends. In the chemical sector, PX and PTA are strong but should be treated with caution after a sharp rise. Other chemical products also have their own characteristics in terms of supply - demand and price trends, with corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as grains, oils, meats, and sugars have different trends. For example, soybeans are expected to be stable and bullish, while corn is expected to be volatile and bearish [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule is decreasing but remains at a high level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8685 - 8875 [3][4][5]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule is continuously decreasing, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 58180 - 60270 [7][8][9][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [3][5]. - Demand side: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 8% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [3][5]. - Cost side: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has risen during the dry season [3][5]. - Other factors: On December 23, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 420 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory was 553,000 tons, a 1.42% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 192,500 tons, a 2.94% increase; the main port inventory was 138,000 tons, a 1.47% increase. The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions decreased [3][5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week, the polysilicon production was 25,000 tons, a 0.39% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [7][8]. - Demand side: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.67GW, a 12.18% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 215,000 tons, a 7.72% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule in December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease from the previous month. In November, the cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of cells was 10.06GW, a 6.56% increase. Currently, cell production is in a loss state, and the production schedule in December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the module production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease from the previous month. The expected module production in December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, module production is in a profitable state [7][9]. - Cost side: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton [7][9][10]. - Other factors: On December 23, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6,875 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The weekly inventory was 293,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, at a high level in the same period of history. The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased [7][9][13]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing price: All contracts showed an upward trend, with the 12 - contract having the largest increase of 2.40% [19]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts decreased, with some showing a significant decline [19]. - Other indicators: The registered warehouse receipt number increased by 1.73%, the weekly DMC production decreased by 6.52%, and the daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged [19]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing price: Most contracts showed an upward trend, with the 07 - contract having the largest increase of 0.84% [21]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts showed a certain change, with some increasing and some decreasing [21]. - Other indicators: The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74%, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06%. The monthly module production decreased by 2.49%, and the domestic monthly module inventory decreased by 51.73% [21]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of various types of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [19]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 1.43%, the sample enterprise inventory increased by 2.94%, and the main port inventory increased by 1.47% [19]. 3.3.2 Polysilicon - Price: The prices of various types of polysilicon and related products remained mostly unchanged [21]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory remained unchanged at 293,000 tons [21]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance 3.4.1 Industrial Silicon - Weekly supply - demand balance: The production, import, export, and consumption data showed a certain balance situation, with the balance value fluctuating [43]. - Monthly supply - demand balance: From November 2024 to November 2025, the industrial silicon production, consumption, and export data showed different trends, and the supply - demand balance also changed accordingly [46]. 3.4.2 Polysilicon - Monthly supply - demand balance: From October 2024 to October 2025, the supply, import, export, and consumption of polysilicon showed different trends, and the balance value also fluctuated [69]. 3.5 Downstream Industry Trends 3.5.1 Organic Silicon - DMC production and price: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the weekly production decreased by 6.52%, and the price remained unchanged [19][49]. - Downstream product prices: The prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remained unchanged [19][51]. - Import - export and inventory: The monthly export and import volumes of DMC showed different trends, and the inventory decreased [54][56]. 3.5.2 Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged, and the import cost and profit showed certain changes [19][58]. - Inventory and production: The monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 8.66%, and the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.09% [19][61]. - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels are provided [62]. 3.5.3 Polysilicon Downstream - Silicon wafer: The price of silicon wafers remained unchanged, the weekly production increased by 5.74%, the weekly inventory decreased by 22.06%, and the monthly demand showed a certain trend [21][72]. - Cell: The price of cells remained unchanged, the production and actual output showed a certain trend, the external sales factory inventory increased, the export volume showed an upward trend, and the opening rate showed a certain trend [21][75]. - Photovoltaic module: The price of modules showed a certain change, the domestic and European inventories decreased, the monthly production decreased by 2.49%, and the export volume increased by 5.54% [21][78]. - Photovoltaic accessories: The prices and import - export volumes of photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and welding tape showed different trends [81]. - Component cost - profit: The cost and profit of silicon wafers, cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components showed different trends [84]. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: The new - installed capacity, power generation structure, and new - connected capacity of photovoltaic power plants showed different trends [87].

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 【粕类日报】供应压力仍存 盘面阶段性反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2025/12/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 豆粕 | 3047 | - 5 | 天津 | 340 | 340 | 0 1 0 | | 0 5 | 2745 | 4 | 东莞 | 290 | 280 | | | 0 9 | 2863 | 6 | 张家港 | 290 | 280 | 1 0 | | | | | 日照 | 300 | 280 | 2 0 | | 0 1 | 2417 | 5 | 南通 | 3 | 8 | - 5 | | 菜粕 0 5 | 2349 | 1 2 | ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance and Investment Ratings There is no report on industry investment ratings provided in the content. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The current main driving logic is that both the actual and expected demand are good, and the resumption time of the Jiaxiawo lithium mine is repeatedly later than expected, resulting in a generally strong upward trend in futures prices. In the context of "strong reality and strong expectations", the operation should still focus on buying on dips [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Currently driven by the policy side, the market trend is somewhat detached from the fundamental situation. The rapid decline after the lunch break today was due to long - position holders leaving the market, and the overall situation is still controlled by long positions. In the short term, it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern [2][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction expectation of polysilicon is negative for upstream industrial silicon. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is weak, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high. The situation is now controlled by long positions, and the downward driving force has weakened, so it is considered to be in a volatile state [9]. 3. Summary by Category Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The carbonate lithium futures showed a strong upward trend today. The main 2605 contract rose 2.68% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 114,380 yuan per ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the notice of restricting the opening volume of positions issued by the exchange after Friday's trading session, the price opened significantly lower but then strengthened quickly. The main driving factors are good demand in reality and expectation, and the delayed resumption of the Jiaxiawo lithium mine [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The carbonate lithium futures increased in positions and rose today, still controlled by long positions. There was an opportunity to enter the market with the "three - line resonance method" at 9:10 am, with a good profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract shows a red line, blue ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing line at 100,100 yuan per ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectations", the strategy is to buy on dips. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 am live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [1]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures dropped after the lunch break today. The main 2605 contract fell 2.32% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 58,845 yuan per ton [2]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by policy factors such as the establishment of a polysilicon platform company and the small number of registered polysilicon warehouse receipts, the market trend is detached from the fundamentals. The decline after the lunch break was due to long - position holders leaving the market. The notice of increasing the minimum opening volume of positions issued by the exchange last Thursday may lead to the departure of retail investors, reducing future liquidity and increasing price volatility [2][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The polysilicon futures decreased in positions and dropped today, still controlled by long positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, approaching the long - short dividing line at 58,030 yuan per ton [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 am live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [5]. - **Concerns**: The recovery of warehouse receipts [6]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated today. The 2605 contract fell 1.09% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,595 yuan per ton [9]. - **Core Logic**: The production reduction expectation of polysilicon is negative for upstream industrial silicon. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is weak, with inventory at a three - year high and the accumulation pattern continuing. With the implementation of downstream production cuts, the overall restocking is limited. Now it is controlled by long positions, and the downward driving force has weakened [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures increased, and it is now controlled by short positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a red line, blue ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has turned into a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing line at 8,300 yuan per ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is considered to be in a volatile state. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 am live broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [9].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 22 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。集运指数（欧 ...

2025.12.22-12.26 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅整理，区域价格分化。供应端整体宽松，而 下游需求疲软，重碱尤其乏力，企业库存累积。成本支撑因煤炭价 格下跌而减弱，但企业普遍亏损令降价空间有限。整体看市场情绪 偏弱，供需格局未改善，短期或延续整理。纯碱期货在低位震荡后 小幅反弹，虽受基本面疲弱与高库存压制，但在宏观预期提振下获 得支撑，短期预计维持震荡格局。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅整理，供需宽松格局未变，企业库存 承压，成本支撑减弱。期货在低位震荡后小幅反弹，基本面 疲弱与宏观预期交织，短期延续震荡。 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周纯碱市场稳中偏弱，重碱价格回落，轻碱持稳。供应增 加而需求疲软，成本支撑减弱，短期预计窄幅整理。期货同 步走低，受板块氛围、成本下降及供需疲弱压制，维持低位 震荡。 本周策略建议 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 马棕产量和出口，印尼生 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 市场分析 昨日玻璃期货震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。现货方面，整体偏弱运行，以低价刚需采购为主。据隆众数据 显示：本周浮法玻璃总库存5855.8万重箱，环比上涨0.57%。 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，供需矛盾依旧存在。玻璃刚需依旧缺乏起色，且 伴随淡季到来，刚需仍有进一步回落预期，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需求帶来的扰 动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货震荡上行，成本支撑发力。现货方面，市场报价弱稳，整体涨跌不一，以刚需 采购为主。据隆众数据显示：本周纯碱产量72.14万吨，环比减少1.9%；库存149.93万吨，环比增加 0.33%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。库存高位 震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对纯 碱价格的影响。 策略 风险 宏观及房地产政策、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】128 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Red Dates**: The "weak reality" of high inventory and weak consumption of red date old stocks, combined with the new - season's production cut being less than market expectations, has led to a loosening of cost support. The recent market in the sales area shows more arrivals and less shipments, with no obvious peak - season characteristics. The short - term red date market will experience wide - range oscillations at low levels. Future attention should be on the absolute inventory level after the Spring Festival, the planting area in 2026, and early - stage weather forecasts [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot prices are stable, and with the increasing demand for curing meat in the South, the downward - support capacity has strengthened. The market from December to January is highly uncertain. On one hand, the recent increase in the epidemic may suppress the spot market; on the other hand, the second - round fattening may support prices. Although the monthly slaughter volume has increased month - on - month, it is lower than market expectations. The spot market is expected to continue to bottom out. Under the pattern of loose supply and demand, the futures market lacks the driving force for continuous upward movement. Attention should be paid to whether the outbreak of the epidemic will lead to early slaughter and over - draw the supply after the New Year [4]. - **Meal Products**: The US soybeans lack trading highlights, and China's demand has been fully traded. South American new - season soybeans are being planted smoothly with good hydro - thermal conditions, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strong. Early - sown soybeans will be listed in January, continuously suppressing US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and with the implementation of auctions, the space for speculating on supply shortages has narrowed. Recently, the market has been speculating about the extension of soybean customs clearance time, and the auction results are good, providing support for the 1 - 5 positive spread. In the short term, there is a sentiment of holding up prices in the spot market, but the spot pressure still exists. There is no driving force for unilateral trading, and the room for the positive spread to continue to strengthen is limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline [7]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: In the Northeast, the grass - roots have a sentiment of holding up prices, and the prices in the production areas are relatively stable. Traders are more willing to sell due to the decline in futures prices, and the volume of grain arriving at the northern ports has increased, with prices slightly decreasing. Attention should be paid to the continuity of the arrival of grain at the northern ports. In North China, the sale of grain changes with price fluctuations, and the number of arriving vehicles is acceptable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is increasing slowly, and they purchase on demand. The demand of feed enterprises has increased, and the procurement of forward orders has begun to increase. In the short term, the increase in the volume of grain on the market has led to a weakening of the futures market. However, the increase in the volume of grain is limited, the grass - roots sentiment of holding up prices still exists, the continuity of the increase in the volume of grain on the market may not be maintained, and enterprises with low inventory still need to replenish their stocks, so the downward range is limited. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of grain sales and the inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: For palm oil, due to the potential concerns of an increase in year - end inventory to 2.9 million tons and a slowdown in exports, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market has been oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to whether the Malaysian palm oil can stop falling and rebound after finding support around Friday. The overall view is that the near - term market is weak and the long - term market is strong. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market has been oscillating downward, with a short - term downward trend breaking through the previous support level. Affected by the decline of Malaysian palm oil, the Dalian palm oil still has the pressure to weaken further, seeking support in the range of 8,200 - 8,300 yuan. For soybean oil, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to finalize the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) next year. Processors cannot obtain clear information in the short term, which may reduce the enthusiasm for large - scale production of biodiesel and the industrial consumption of US soybean oil, dragging down the CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, the National Grain and Oil Trading Center plans to auction 513,800 tons of imported soybeans, with an actual transaction of 323,100 tons. The average transaction price is 3,852.08 yuan/ton, and the transaction ratio is 62.88%. However, the amount of soybeans released is currently limited. As January approaches, the Spring Festival stocking will soon start, and the factory's soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to decrease, supporting the basis quotation. For rapeseed oil, the postponement of the final decision on the 2026 RVO by the EPA has led to a decline in the US soybean oil futures price, dragging down the domestic vegetable oil market, including rapeseed oil. The market is still digesting the news of COFCO's purchase of Canadian rapeseed, increasing concerns about future supply pressure. The market sentiment is weak, and the rapeseed oil price has fallen below the previous low. Attention should be paid to the support at 9,000 yuan for the 05 contract [12]. - **Sugar**: The ICE raw sugar futures closed down because the weather in Brazil is favorable for the growth of sugarcane in the next season. Although the production in Brazil has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, the expectation of a loose supply remains. Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, and its impact on the market is limited. Overall, the loose supply outlook is still an important factor restricting the rebound of raw sugar prices, and the price will maintain a bearish pattern. In the domestic market, the sugar - making rhythm in the main production areas has accelerated. Affected by the increasing supply, the futures market price has weakened, and sugar - making groups have slightly lowered their prices. The new sugar has entered the market, but the market trading atmosphere is still tepid, and the spot trading is average. Currently lacking positive factors, the price has no power to rebound and is expected to remain weak [14]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures closed down due to weak exports and the prospect of increased supply. The US cotton export sales have decreased. The overall US cotton market will maintain an oscillating trend. In the domestic market, the market expects a decline in the planting area in Xinjiang next year, with an optimistic long - term outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, with the inventory of downstream finished products continuing to accumulate, and the profit and cash flow of textile enterprises gradually deteriorating. However, the overall pressure on the downstream industry is still acceptable, and textile enterprises have a certain resilience in their rigid demand for cotton raw materials. There is still limited downward space for cotton prices, but the constraints on cotton prices are increasing, and there is certain pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14,050 - 14,100 [17]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices have shown a trend of gradual recovery from a low level. Affected by this, farmers generally have a sentiment of holding back sales, resulting in a continuous decrease in the slaughter volume of old hens. Combining with the data on the replenishment of chicken seedlings in the early stage, it can be inferred that the number of newly - laying hens is also decreasing, but the overall improvement in inventory is not obvious. Coupled with the recent cooling, which is conducive to egg storage, the supply of eggs is still relatively sufficient. Currently, the positive factors in the market are not strong, and the sales in high - price areas are slow, with prices falling. The expectation of price increases in low - price markets has increased, and the trading volume has improved. The sales speed varies in different markets, and prices are adjusted stably. According to the latest survey data of Mysteel's egg team, on December 16, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.94 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous day, a decrease of 1.05%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.31 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous day, a decrease of 2.24%. The trading link mainly focuses on selling goods, and the sales in some high - price areas are slightly slow. However, the market sentiment of expecting price increases has increased, stimulating the sentiment of holding back sales in some production areas and the enthusiasm of terminal buyers to replenish stocks. Considering the sufficient supply of eggs, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Red Dates - **Futures Prices**: The prices of red date 2601, 2605 (main contract), and 2609 have all decreased, with decreases of 1.62%, 0.66%, and 0.59% respectively. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 170.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.61% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates have decreased by 0.92%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively. The basis of special - grade and first - grade red dates in Cangzhou relative to the main contract has decreased by 22.22% and 7.74% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: The position decreased by 1.89%, the warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the effective forecast increased by 47.46%, and the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 22.09% [1]. Live Pigs - **Futures Prices**: The main - contract basis decreased by 31.03%, the price of live pig 2605 increased by 0.21%, the price of live pig 2603 increased by 0.40%, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 3.33%. The main - contract position increased by 1.29%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in Henan remained unchanged, those in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton, those in Sichuan remained unchanged, those in Liaoning decreased by 150 yuan/ton, those in Guangdong remained unchanged, those in Hunan increased by 50 yuan/ton, and those in Hebei decreased by 50 yuan/ton [4]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 0.33%, the weekly carcass price remained unchanged, the weekly piglet price decreased by 2.94%, the weekly sow price decreased by 0.03%, the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.15%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 2.59%, the weekly purchased - piglet profit increased by 7.21%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [4]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 0.32%, the price of M2605 increased by 0.69%, the basis of M2605 decreased by 2.63%, the basis quotation of Jiangsu spot decreased, the import crushing profit of Brazilian February shipments decreased by 22.9%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 0.83%, the price of RM2605 increased by 0.77%, the basis of RM2605 decreased by 48.10%, the import crushing profit of Canadian January shipments increased by 1.18%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the price of the main soybean - one contract decreased by 0.97%, the basis of the main soybean - one contract increased by 21.05%. The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the price of the main soybean - two contract decreased by 0.63%, the basis of the main soybean - two contract increased by 16.78%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal increased by 6.54%, the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 3.77%, the oil - meal ratio of spot decreased by 0.79%, the oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 1.53%, the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 4.41%, and the 2605 price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 0.24% [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 and the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.36% and 1.29% respectively, the basis decreased by 23.91%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.50%, the bulk grain price in Shekou decreased by 0.41%, the north - south trade profit increased by 105.26%, the CIF price decreased by 0.86%, the import profit increased by 2.94%, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 34.16%, the position decreased by 0.86%, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2.34% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 0.44%, the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged, the basis increased by 14.29%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.38%, the 01 contract price difference between starch and corn decreased by 1.05%, the starch profit in Shandong decreased by 53.85%, the position increased by 0.22%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.47%, the price of Y2605 decreased by 0.61%, the basis increased by 3.05%, the basis quotation remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.82%, the price of P2605 decreased by 0.96%, the basis increased by 20.69%, the basis quotation increased, the import cost of Guangzhou Port in May decreased by 0.99%, the import profit increased by 1.68%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 2.23%, the price of OI605 decreased by 1.33%, the basis decreased by 21.59%, the basis quotation remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2.02% [12]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean oil decreased by 16.67%, the 05 - 09 spread of palm oil decreased by 15.49%, the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 14.58%, the spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 2.54%, the 2601 price difference between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 2.54%, the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 13.64%, and the 2601 price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 6.21% [12]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 1.49%, the price of sugar 2605 decreased by 1.42%, the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.54%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.95%, the main - contract position increased by 12.09%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the effective forecast remained unchanged [14]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 0.37% and 0.66% respectively. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased by 35.29% and 44.32% respectively. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) decreased by 0.86%, the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) decreased by 0.87%, the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) and Nanning decreased by 1.34%, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) and Nanning decreased by 31.33% [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 23.24%, the cumulative national sugar sales decreased by 42.53%, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 73.87%, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 68.63%, the national cumulative sugar sales rate decreased by 24.75%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased by 20.05%, the national industrial inventory decreased by 7.40%, the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 80.43%, the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 110.00%, and the sugar import volume increased by 38.89% [14]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 260