1． 先来看看背后的导火索，继山西地区对于上半年超产煤矿生产有所控制之后，煤矿企业对部分亏损煤矿试行 276 工作日制，除此之外，近期应急管理部 公布的新版《煤矿安全规程》再次受到交易者的关注，明日上午10时国家矿山安全监察局将举行新版《煤矿安全规程》专题新闻发布会，介绍《煤矿安全规 程》修订的背景、原则、意义和主要修订内容，供应收缩的担忧使得资金推升盘面。 | 序号 | 合前名称 | 辰斯 | 测手 | 大价 | 英价 | 一度重要 | 大理 | 天堂 | 励义童 | 在线 | 荷D 主 | 日指定 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7 | 年度2601 W | 1313.0 | 21 | 1313.0 | 1313.5 | 6.97% | 108 | 20 | 2198087 | 85.5 | 718948 | 28212 | | 2 | 神明2601 m | 1409 | 4 | 1409 | 1410 | 5.31% | 14 | 911 | 3235588 | 71 ...

2025年8月12日，国内主力合约涨多跌少，涨近7%，纯碱涨超5%，、氧化涨超4%，棕榈油涨超3%，菜 油、铁矿涨超2%。跌幅方面，菜粕跌3%，原木、沪金、集运欧线跌超1%。 3． 综合来看，部分参与者对于宏观以及供应端减量仍有较好预期，叠加焦化企业连续提涨焦炭，焦化 企业利润好转，一些贸易商继续投机性囤货，接下来重点关注明日上午新闻发布会内容对行情的指引作 用。（光大） 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com | 序号 | 合约名称 | 局新 | 现手 | 天价 | 英伦 | 198000 | 天堂 | 英语 | 成交量 | 感味 | 持位量 | 日常仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | J | 焦煤2601 M | 1313.0 | 21 | 13 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of various futures markets, including soybean, palm oil, live pigs, eggs, and corn, driven by factors such as export demand, weather conditions, and supply dynamics [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybeans rose due to improved export demand expectations and hot weather in production areas, with the good rate remaining stable and no surprises in export inspection data [1] - Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices fell, with rapeseed meal declining more than soybean meal, leading to an expanded price difference [1] - The oil factory's crushing volume decreased to 2.18 million tons last week but is expected to recover to 2.3 million tons this week, indicating sufficient domestic supply and rising inventory [1] Group 3 - BMD palm oil prices increased due to improved export expectations and positive MPOB reports, with Malaysia's July palm oil production rising by 7.09% month-on-month [1] - The report indicated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 4.02% month-on-month, but was lower than expected, while exports rose by 3.82% [1] Group 4 - Live pig futures saw a slight decline of 0.28%, with the average daily price in China at 13.78 yuan/kg, reflecting mixed price movements across regions [1] - The supply side is under pressure, but policy support is present, leading to a view of price fluctuations [1] Group 5 - The main contract for eggs continued to decline, with a daily drop of 2.71%, while the national egg price rose slightly to 3.02 yuan/jin [1] - The short-term fundamentals appear weak, with high levels of egg-laying hens and weak terminal demand, although a rebound in demand is expected in the future [1] Group 6 - Corn futures experienced adjustments with a lack of speculative activity, and the cash market saw weaker transactions due to price declines [1] - The northeastern corn market is weak, with traders selling based on market conditions, while prices in North China remain stable with minor adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices due to supply concerns stemming from the suspension of mining operations in the Jiangxi region, particularly the Jiangxia Wokou mining area, which is expected to impact the overall supply-demand balance in the industry [1][2] - The Jiangxia Wokou mining area, which contributes approximately 10,000 tons per month, accounts for about 12.5% of the domestic lithium carbonate production, and its suspension is anticipated to shift the market from a tight balance to a shortage [1] - The new Mineral Resources Law set to be implemented in 2025 is causing concerns regarding the approval processes for other major mining areas, further exacerbating supply worries in the lithium market [1] Group 2 - On August 11, the domestic futures market saw a general increase, with lithium carbonate contracts hitting the limit up, rising over 8%, while other commodities like industrial silicon and red dates also saw gains exceeding 3% [2] - In contrast, commodities such as eggs, fuel, plywood, crude oil, and urea experienced declines of over 1% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stainless - steel futures rose today, driven by steel mills' price hikes and related variety disk trends. However, due to weak downstream demand in the off - season, the market is in a wait - and - see state with light trading. Technically, there is a callback pressure after the price breaks through the 50 - day moving average and the RSI indicator moves from the oversold area to the middle range. In the short term, stainless - steel futures may maintain a volatile trend [10]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On August 5, 2025, the price of the stainless - steel ss2509 contract fluctuated upward. It opened near the daily low of 12985 points, then dropped to the daily low of 12920 points, and oscillated within this range throughout the day. The price rose at the end of the session and then fell back to the closing price of 12960 points. Trading volume was high at the opening and before the close, with a daily trading volume of 79826 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 stainless - steel futures contracts show a normal market pattern of lower near - term prices and higher far - term prices. Contracts at both ends of the months saw relatively large price increases, while those in the middle months had weak increases. The active contract ss2509 had a position of 85949 lots, a decrease of 1526 lots. Funds entered the stainless - steel variety on that day, and the position of the secondary - leading contract increased by 2863 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basic Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract ss2509 changed significantly, with a maximum of 470 yuan/ton, a minimum of 25 yuan/ton, and 140 yuan/ton on the day. In the spot market, taking the 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil plate with rough edges as an example, the prices in Foshan Yongjin, Wuxi Yongjin, Zibo Hongwang, and Shanghai Hongwang were 12750 yuan/ton, 12800 yuan/ton, 12700 yuan/ton, and 12800 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of stainless - steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 102865 tons, a decrease of 60 tons compared with the previous trading day. The recent change in registered warehouse receipts was small, and the overall warehouse receipt quantity remained at a historical high [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In terms of cost, the price of Indonesian nickel ore remained stable, and the premium of pyrometallurgical nickel ore was maintained at 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton. The nickel - iron quotation range moved up slightly, mainly concentrated at 920 - 930 yuan/nickel point. High - cost nickel - iron production lines were mostly in a state of reduction or shutdown. In terms of supply, since July, the stainless - steel price has rebounded, and the steel mills' profits have been significantly repaired. However, the production reduction of steel mills in July was less than expected, and the production schedule in August increased further, so there is still supply pressure. According to Steel Union data, the production schedule of the 300 - series in August is 1.7598 million tons, a 3% month - on - month increase. In terms of inventory, the social inventories in Wuxi and Foshan of stainless - steel have been gradually reduced recently, mainly due to the slowdown of market arrivals and the steel mills' price hikes stimulating purchasing demand. But the terminal demand has not improved significantly, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, and the tariff policy has uncertainties for exports [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook The stainless - steel futures rose today, affected by steel mills' price hikes and related variety disk trends. Due to weak downstream demand in the off - season, the wait - and - see sentiment is strong and trading is light. Technically, there is a callback pressure after the price breaks through the 50 - day moving average and the RSI indicator moves from the oversold area to the middle range. In the short term, stainless - steel futures may maintain a volatile trend [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the propylene market is experiencing slight price increases due to improved demand from downstream products and reduced supply from unexpected plant shutdowns [1] - Propylene prices are currently low, but the operational enthusiasm of production facilities is rising, which is expected to boost propylene demand [1] - Polyolefin futures are maintaining a low range, with polyethylene showing increased production due to fewer maintenance shutdowns and strong demand from agricultural and packaging sectors [1] Group 2 - The pure benzene market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices supported by improved transactions in Shandong, although downstream buying interest is declining [1] - Domestic production of pure benzene is increasing while import volumes are decreasing, leading to a slight reduction in port inventories and easing market pressure [1] - Styrene futures are showing weak fluctuations, with expectations of increased production from a major plant, which may negatively impact the market [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures night market opened with most contracts rising, indicating a positive trend in the market [1] - Gold futures decreased by 0.19%, while silver futures increased by 0.33%, reflecting mixed performance in precious metals [1] - Rebar futures rose by 0.72%, iron ore by 0.57%, and coking coal surged over 3%, suggesting strong demand in the construction and steel industries [1] Group 2 - Glass futures increased by 0.56%, indicating stability in the glass manufacturing sector [1] - Crude oil futures fell by nearly 1%, which may reflect concerns over supply or demand dynamics in the energy market [1] - Soda ash futures rose by 2.3%, suggesting potential growth in the chemical industry [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a collective upward trend on August 4, 2025, with varying degrees of increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, and the trading volume decreased compared to the previous Friday [1]. - Different futures varieties presented different market conditions. For example, some futures prices fluctuated with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [4][7][8]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 4, the three major A - share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to 3583.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.46% to 11041.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.50% to 2334.32 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 14986 billion yuan, a decrease of 998 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday. The CSI 300 index showed a strong - trending shock, closing at 4070.70, a rise of 15.77 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 4, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, with a closing price of 1646.4, a rise of 9.2. The coking coal weighted index showed a weak shock, with a closing price of 1101.0 yuan, a rise of 19.9 [2][3]. - Coke: The cost increased due to rising coal prices, the profitability of coke enterprises was average, the weekly - on - weekly start - up rate declined slightly, and the supply was relatively stable. The demand side had a small decline in iron - water production, but the absolute level was high. The inventory was depleted under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price fluctuated with raw material prices and market sentiment [4]. - Coking coal: The supply recovery was slow due to safety inspections and production restrictions in some mines. The import volume of Mongolian coal reached a high level this year, and the trading sentiment in the spot market declined. The demand side also showed a weak situation with a decline in the start - up rate of coke enterprises and iron - water production [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the weakening of the US economy and improved global supply, the US sugar price declined on Friday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract showed a shock - adjustment trend on Monday and a slight increase at night due to technical factors and capital effects [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline and technical support, as well as bargain - hunting buying, the Shanghai rubber futures rebounded slightly on Monday and continued to rise slightly at night. The total inventory at Qingdao Port decreased last week, with a decrease in both bonded and general trade warehouses [5]. Palm Oil - On August 4, palm oil fluctuated widely. The main contract P2509 closed with a long - lower - shadow阴线. The expected inventory, production, and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July 2025 all increased compared to June [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures rose on August 4. The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased, and the expected soybean production in Brazil increased. Domestically, the soybean meal futures rose slightly on August 4. The inventory continued to accumulate due to sufficient imported soybeans and high oil - mill crushing volume, but the concern about the future supply gap supported the futures price [7]. Live Pigs - On August 4, live pigs continued the weak trend. The supply was sufficient, and the secondary - fattening enthusiasm declined. The demand was weak due to high - temperature weather and school holidays. The cost increased due to rising feed prices, and the market was in a state of loose supply and demand [8]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper showed a range - bound shock. The poor US non - farm payroll data increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts, which was theoretically beneficial to copper prices, but tariff policy uncertainty might suppress long - term demand. The global copper inventory was rising, and the demand was weak, but the mining suspension of a Chilean mine and the expected supply - tightening policy supported the copper price [8]. Iron Ore - On August 4, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose with a shock. The global shipment increased last week, the arrival volume decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the iron - water production declined, but the short - term price was in a shock trend [9]. Asphalt - On August 4, the asphalt 2509 main contract declined with a shock. The production capacity utilization rate increased last week, and the demand was expected to recover. The low inventory supported the price, and the short - term price fluctuated [9]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13655 yuan/ton at night on Monday. The cotton inventory decreased by 123 lots compared to the previous trading day [9][10]. Logs - The log 2509 contract rose unilaterally on August 4. The external quotation increase drove the internal futures price up. The spot trading was weak, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [10]. Steel - On August 4, the rb2510 closed at 3204 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 closed at 3417 yuan/ton. The profit game between the upstream and downstream of the black chain intensified, and the trading logic switched to the dual - drive of industrial benefits and valuation repair, with the support of real - estate policies and the steel industry's stable - growth plan [10]. Alumina - On August 4, the ao2509 closed at 3225 yuan/ton. The alumina market was in a game between potential policy benefits and over - supply expectations, with a decline in market sentiment and wide - range fluctuations [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 4, the al2509 closed at 20525 yuan/ton. Overseas macro - pressure led to a decline in aluminum prices, but the stable supply - demand fundamentals and low inventory supported the prices, showing a relatively strong performance [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not clearly specified, but market shows signs of limited upward momentum [2] - Pure Benzene: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with potential for seasonal improvement in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter [3] - PX and PTA:中期加工差有修复驱动，但需等待下游需求恢复 [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to continue the downward trend [5] - Short - fiber: Considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term [5] - Bottle - chip: Long - term pressure from over - capacity limits processing margin repair [5] - Methanol: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [6] - Urea: Short - term market is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - PVC: Short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic Soda: Futures price is expected to face pressure at high levels in the long - term [7] - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [8] - Glass: Market returns to real - world trading after the subsiding of sentiment [8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally in a complex situation with a mix of supply - demand imbalances, cost factors, and policy impacts across different sectors [2][3][5] - Different products have different supply - demand characteristics, and their price trends are affected by factors such as raw material prices, downstream demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures closed down with limited market digestion capacity and weak upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. PE had increased supply pressure and limited demand improvement, while PP had inventory transfer and weak demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene had cost support from rising oil prices but faced weak supply - demand. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band trading [3] - Styrene futures had strong cost support but weak supply - demand, with high supply and stable demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined due to weak domestic commodity sentiment. PX had overseas device shutdowns and PTA had reduced load [5] - Ethylene glycol prices continued to fall with stable demand and increasing domestic supply [5] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed raw materials down. Short - fiber had potential for medium - term improvement, while bottle - chip faced long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell with increased imports and low - level inventory. Attention should be paid to macro - policies [6] - Urea futures hit a new low. The market was in the demand off - season with weak short - term trends [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued to weaken with high supply and increasing inventory during the off - season [7] - Caustic soda ran weakly with improved comprehensive profits but high - level supply pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash touched the daily limit down with supply - demand pressure and expected weak short - term fluctuations [8] - Glass also touched the daily limit down. The market returned to real - world trading with weakening sales and inventory accumulation [8]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 29, A-share market's three major indices rose collectively, with Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 3609.71 points, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11289.41 points, and ChiNext Index rose 1.86% to 2406.59 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1803.2 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index showed a strengthening trend on July 29, closing at 4152.02, up 16.2 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 29, the weighted coke index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1656.9, down 35.4; the weighted coking coal index maintained a consolidation trend, closing at 1170.5 yuan, down 43.7 [2][3]. - For coke, the spot price at ports decreased, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from July 29, 2025. After the fourth price increase, coking enterprises transferred costs to steel mills, and the overall start - up of coking enterprises was stable. After the previous price increase, steel enterprises' profit per ton of steel was generally over 200 yuan/ton, but after the rapid price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants began to sell actively [4]. - For coking coal, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang area decreased by 118 yuan to 1331 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak. Some traders lowered prices due to the fear of high prices after the futures limit - down. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin accepted the fourth price increase of coke. Currently, coking enterprises' production profit is in a loss of about 50 yuan/ton [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Boosted by the rising crude oil price, US sugar rebounded on Monday. Affected by the rise of US sugar, short - sellers closed positions, driving the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to rise on Tuesday. At night, the contract fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Analysts expect Brazil's central - southern region to have a sugarcane crushing volume of 48.3 million tons in the first half of July, a sugar output of 3.3 million tons, and an ethanol output of 2.19 billion liters in July, with year - on - year increases of 11.3%, 12.5%, and 2.3% respectively [5]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Tuesday. At night, it continued to consolidate and closed slightly higher. In June 2025, China's car tire dealer price composite index was 94.06, down 0.51% month - on - month; the truck and bus tire dealer price composite index was 99.08, down 0.29% month - on - month [6][7]. Soybean Meal - In the international market on July 29, CBOT soybean futures fell. The weather forecast showed lower temperatures and periodic rainfall in the US Midwest this week, enhancing the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. As of the week ending July 27, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.05 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. Sufficient imported soybeans and high crushing volume in oil mills led to high soybean meal production and increased inventory, and the weakening of the US soybean market weakened cost support, so the soybean meal price may continue to be weak [7]. Live Pigs - On July 29, the live pig futures price was weak. Recently, the slaughtering sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of live pigs was abundant. High - temperature weather led to weak terminal consumption, and the consumption of pork was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig market is in a stage of increasing supply. As of the end of June, the number of fertile sows was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level, laying a foundation for abundant pig supply in the second half of the year [8]. Palm Oil - On July 28, palm oil fluctuated widely and then tested the support level again. The main contract P2509 closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, closing at 8970, up 0.27%. According to CIMB Securities, if Indonesia implements the B50 biofuel regulation, its domestic palm oil consumption demand may increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to 6.2% of its crude palm oil output in 2024. However, since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively [9]. Shanghai Copper - The approaching deadline of US tariff policies and the expected unchanged Fed interest rate are negative for copper prices. Fundamentally, supply is loose, and demand is weak. Inventory is at a low level. Technically, there is a possibility of a short - term trend reversal. Overall, copper prices will oscillate weakly, but the downward space may be limited due to low inventory [10]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,870 yuan/ton. On July 30, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 70 lots compared with the previous day [11]. Iron Ore - On July 29, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.63% at 798 yuan. The global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. Iron ore demand remained resilient, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [11]. Asphalt - On July 29, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.78% at 3619 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August decreased compared with July, and the demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall. The short - term price will fluctuate [11]. Logs - On July 29, the log futures contract 2509 opened at 828, with the lowest at 823.5, the highest at 838.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 1049 lots in positions. The spot market price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [11][12]. Steel - On July 29, the rb2510 contract closed at 3347 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3503 yuan/ton. The steel market strengthened, possibly related to rumors of anti - involution and real estate meetings. The spot market quotation and trading strengthened, and the market's resistance to price drops increased, but market participation is difficult due to macro news [12]. Alumina - On July 29, the ao2509 contract closed at 3307 yuan/ton. The market sentiment driven by policies conflicts with the fundamentals. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is weak. In the short - term, the market sentiment may reverse, and the operation risk increases. In the medium - term, the supply - demand structure is loose, and the price cannot deviate from the fundamentals for a long time [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 29, the al2509 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the tariff suspension expiration date on August 1, the Fed's end - of - month interest - rate meeting, and important domestic economic meetings, the impact of macro events on the market should be noted. Fundamentally, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the spot trading is average. The accumulation of social inventory is within the seasonal range, and the low inventory level supports the price [13].