Variety Views - On June 3, A-shares' three major indices rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43% to 3361.98, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.16% to 10057.17, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.48% to 2002.70. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1141.4 billion yuan, 2.2 billion yuan more than last Friday [1] - The CSI 300 index strengthened on June 3, closing at 3852.01, up 11.78 [1] - On June 3, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1300.3 yuan, down 14.3 [2] - On June 3, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 721.3 yuan, down 22.1 [3] - Affected by the earlier rainy season improving sugar production prospects in major Asian producers, US sugar fell on Monday. Constrained by the decline in US sugar and the reduction in spot quotes, the short sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which fell on Tuesday and slightly at night [4] - Due to the technical influence on the short - term decline, Shanghai rubber consolidated on Tuesday and continued to fluctuate at night [5] - On June 3, palm oil continued its recent rebound, hitting a new high in recent weeks before pulling back. The main contract P2509 closed with an upper - shadow阳线, closing at 8196, up 1.69% [5] - As of May 30, 2025 (week 22), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 364,000 tons, up 25,300 tons from last week, a 7.47% increase; down 19,500 tons from 383,500 tons last year, a 5.08% decrease. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the previous month [7] - On June 3, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to the boost from crude oil prices. As of June 1, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 67%, lower than the expected 68%; the planting rate was 84%, lower than the expected 86%. In the domestic market, on June 3, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract M2509 closed at 2935 yuan/ton, a 1.11% decrease [7] - On June 3, the live hog futures price fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 13,605 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decrease [8] - On June 3, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.14%, closing at 695.5 yuan [8] - On June 3, the asphalt 2507 main contract rose 1.22%, closing at 3482 yuan [8] - Copper prices maintained a relatively strong and volatile pattern. There were new disruptions in the mining end, and domestic smelting output continued to exceed expectations, but raw material supply was expected to decline. In June, consumption was expected to be slightly weaker, and the domestic market was expected to be in a tight balance or a slight inventory build - up [9] - The log 2507 contract opened at 765 on Monday, with a low of 759.5, a high of 770, and closed at 765, with an increase of 596 positions. The spot price was supported at 750 - 770 and faced resistance at 790 [9] - On June 3, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, the 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs were 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged [9] - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,240 yuan/ton. As of June 5, the minimum basis quote at Xinjiang's designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 40 lots [11] - On June 3, rb2510 closed at 2928 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3052 yuan/ton. Market transactions remained at a low level, and prices were generally stable with some weakening [11] - On June 3, ao2509 closed at 2998 yuan/ton. The impact of Guinea's revocation of some mining licenses has basically ended, and the future supply is expected to be in surplus [12] - On June 3, al2507 closed at 19,860 yuan/ton. The inventory in the East China market increased slightly after the holiday, and the market supply became more abundant [12] Influencing Factors - For coke, the loss of coke enterprises slightly expanded, and the daily output decreased. The demand also decreased, and the second - round price cut in the spot market was implemented [4] - For coking coal, some mines in major production areas limited production, but the overall supply remained stable and abundant. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the inventory in the supervision area increased [4] - The ANRPC April 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in April would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, and consumption would decrease by 1.3% to 1.248 million tons. The market decline was due to increased tapping and weak tire demand [5] - For soybean meal, as the arrival of soybeans increased, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal rose. The short - term demand from feed enterprises was limited [7] - For live hogs, consumer demand was weak, and the supply was expected to increase in June, but the early - month slaughter decreased slightly [8] - For iron ore, in June, the supply was expected to increase as overseas mines rushed for quarterly output, while the terminal demand entered the off - season, and the pig iron output declined for three consecutive weeks [8] - For asphalt, the planned production in June increased significantly, but the demand was suppressed by the rainy season and was supported by the crude oil cost [8] - For copper, there were disruptions in the mining end, and domestic consumption was expected to be slightly weaker in June. The social inventory increased slightly during the holiday [9] - For logs, the port inventory increased slightly, the overall demand was weak, and the market entered the off - season [9] - For cotton, the US cotton sowing progress was slow, and the domestic cotton inventory decreased slightly [11] - For steel, market transactions were weak, and demand was expected to decline seasonally with the influence of the rainy season [11] - For alumina, the impact of mining license revocation ended, and the复产 of suspended enterprises led to concerns about future supply surplus [12] - For aluminum, the inventory in the East China market increased after the holiday, and the market supply became more abundant [12]

夜盘期货开盘，烧碱、纸浆、PTA、菜粕跌逾1%；沪锡、焦煤、低硫燃油等上涨。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing macroeconomic disturbances leading to a significant rise in gold prices [1] - It mentions that this week, various commodities will have key levels to watch [1] - A senior futures researcher, Leo, will analyze the current market trends for gold and other popular futures products [1] Group 2 - The article indicates that there will be insights into the fundamental aspects of futures products [1] - It also suggests a future outlook for commodities [1]

Variety Views - On May 29, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to close at 3363.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.24% to close at 10127.20 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.37% to close at 2012.55 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1185.4 billion yuan, an increase of 175.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index trended stronger on May 29, closing at 3858.70, a rise of 22.46 [1] - On May 29, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1332.9 yuan, a decrease of 22.2 compared to the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 760.5 yuan, a decrease of 30.9 [1] Factors Affecting Futures Prices - For coke, the second round of price cuts has officially started. In the short term, coking coal continues to offer concessions, and coke enterprises have a weak drive to cut production. Steel mills' profitability rate continues to expand, and the inflection point of molten iron production cut may have appeared. Considering the current good profits of steel mills, the decline space of molten iron is limited, and steel mills have a rigid demand for coke procurement. However, the cost support of coke has loosened, and it is difficult for coke prices to stabilize [2] - For coking coal, the sales of coking coal are not smooth, and there is a phenomenon of full warehouses. Some mines have taken production cut actions, but large-scale production cuts have not occurred yet. The profits of downstream coking enterprises are damaged, and the willingness to replenish raw material inventory is poor. This week, the molten iron production has significantly declined, and the short-term demand for coking coal has weakened. The inventory pressure at the mine level is relatively large. In terms of imports, the number of customs clearance vehicles at the port remains high, and the inventory in the supervision area is piling up [2] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the global weather is conducive to production recovery. The dry weather in Brazil is conducive to accelerating the harvest speed, while the wet weather in India and Thailand is helpful for the growth of sugarcane crops. Affected by the expectation of improved global production prospects, the US sugar oscillated and declined on Wednesday. Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the downward adjustment of spot quotations, the Zhengzhou sugar contract 2509 oscillated downward on Thursday [2] - For rubber, due to the large short-term decline, affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber stopped falling and rebounded on Thursday. The 20 rubber performed stronger than natural rubber due to the decrease in the inventory of the futures exchange. Affected by short sellers, Shanghai rubber oscillated and slightly declined at night. In the first four months of 2025, the total export volume of Thai natural rubber and mixed rubber was 1.573 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, while that of Vietnam was 450,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% [2] Palm Oil - On May 29, palm oil continued its recent rebound, strongly surging to a high in recent weeks. The main contract P2509 closed with a positive K-line. The highest price of the day was 8198, the lowest was 8062, and the closing price was 8190, a rise of 1.41% compared to the previous day. It is expected that the palm oil production in Malaysia in May will still be at a high level. From May 1 - 25, the palm oil production in southern Malaysia increased by 0.7% month-on-month, and the average month-on-month increase in the same period in the past five years was 8.6%. It is expected that the production in May will increase by about 2% month-on-month. In terms of exports, shipping agency data shows that from May 1 - 25, the export volume of palm oil increased by 7 - 11% month-on-month, and the average month-on-month increase in the same period in the past five years was 9.0%. It is expected that the export of Malaysian palm oil in May will increase by about 10% month-on-month. Overall, it is expected that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of May will continue to rise, possibly around 2 million tons [3][5] Soybean Meal - In the international market, on May 29, CBOT soybean futures trended weakly. Agricultural consulting firm Datagro raised the soybean production in Brazil for the 2024/2025 season from 171.2 million tons to 172 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that the soybean export volume in Brazil in May will reach 14.03 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 14.52 million tons. The Buenos Aires and Rosario Grain Exchanges said that the expected dry and cold weather in the next few days will help Argentine farmers harvest soybeans. In the domestic market, on May 28, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The main contract M2509 closed at 2954 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.27%. As the arrival volume of soybeans increases, the soybean inventory continues to rise, and the operating rate of oil mills nationwide has increased significantly. With sufficient soybean supply in the second quarter, the soybean meal inventory tends to rebound. Downstream feed enterprises have completed short-term inventory replenishment, and the short-term increase in soybean meal demand is limited. Overall, the soybean meal market is under the expectation of loose supply, and the upward space of prices is limited. Short-term focus should be on the arrival volume of soybeans [6] Live Pigs - On May 29, the live pig futures price oscillated and rebounded. The main contract 2509 closed at 13640 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.59%. Currently, the overall consumer demand is weak. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have inventory procurement needs. However, with the significant increase in domestic temperature and the adjustment of residents' diet structure, there are many alternative consumption options, and the sales of fresh pork are poor. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has changed. Group pig enterprises have completed their slaughter plans well, and the slaughter pressure at the end of the month has been alleviated. After the continuous decline of medium and large pigs, many large-scale pig enterprises have taken price stabilization measures, and the willingness to sell has slightly decreased. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level and the production efficiency has improved. The market is generally in a pattern of loose supply. Short-term focus should be on the change in the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [7] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper continued to oscillate strongly, but the fluctuation was limited. Fundamentally, the LME copper inventory decreased on a single day, and the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained at a low level. The global visible inventory is at the 25% quantile level of the same period in history, providing support for prices. However, the demand expectation is weak, and there are still macro uncertainties, making it difficult to provide more upward momentum. The narrow - range oscillation state of Shanghai copper continues [7] Iron Ore - On May 29, the main contract 2509 of iron ore oscillated and rose, with a rise of 1.29% and a closing price of 707 yuan. The overseas shipment of iron ore in this period has declined, the arrival volume has increased slightly month-on-month, and the port inventory has continued to decrease. The terminal demand has entered the off - season, and the molten iron production has declined for two consecutive periods at a high level. Iron ore shows an oscillating trend in the short term [7] Asphalt - On May 29, the main contract 2507 of asphalt oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.51% and a closing price of 3514 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt in this period continued to decline month-on-month, and the shipment volume decreased month-on-month. With the arrival of the rainy season in the southern region, the terminal demand may be suppressed. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Asphalt shows an oscillating trend in the short term [8] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13260 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on May 30, at the designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in Xinjiang of the National Cotton Trading Market, the lowest basis quotation was 390 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 52 lots compared to the previous trading day. The cotton planting in the United States is progressing slowly due to the drought [8] Logs - On May 29, the 2507 log contract opened at 760, with the lowest price of 756, the highest price of 769, and closed at 766, with a daily position reduction of 1036 lots. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price at 750 - 770 and the resistance at 790. There is certain support at the spot end, and the futures price rebounded. On May 29, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory has slightly increased, and the overall demand is still weak. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. The market has entered the off - season, and the spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the spot price, import data, the inventory procurement of downstream enterprises, and the price - holding willingness of traders [10] Steel - On May 29, rb2510 closed at 2978 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3110 yuan/ton. This week, the production of rebar has slightly declined, the inventory has continued to decrease, and the apparent demand has slightly increased. The data is slightly positive. In the short term, although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved this week and the pre - holiday inventory procurement sentiment has increased, the real estate cycle has not yet stabilized, the physical workload of infrastructure investment is relatively lagging, and affected by the rainy season in the south and the seasonal law of outdoor construction, the demand expectation for rebar is weak [10] Alumina - On May 29, ao2509 closed at 2964 yuan/ton. The alumina market showed an oscillating downward trend, and the market performance was weak. There are still differences between the short - term and medium - long - term supply, and there is still strong uncertainty in overseas ore policies, so the price may fluctuate. The incomplete recovery of short - term maintenance capacity and the supply disturbance of bauxite provide some support for alumina, but the upward space is limited [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On May 29, al2507 closed at 20200 yuan/ton. Although the aluminum inventory is at a low level, providing certain support for the aluminum price, due to the lack of more than expected positive factors at the macro level recently, it is difficult to drive the aluminum price to break through further. At the same time, the off - season pressure on the demand side also limits the upward space of the aluminum price to some extent. Therefore, the aluminum price will maintain an oscillating consolidation trend in the short term [11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. court has halted presidential tariffs, leading to a decrease in safe-haven sentiment for gold, prompting analysis of how the futures market will respond [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The halt of tariffs by the U.S. court is expected to impact the futures market, particularly in commodities like gold and oil [1] - The live analysis by a senior futures researcher focuses on market trends and the fundamental aspects of various popular futures products [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Insights into the future trends of commodities, including gold and oil, are being provided in the live session [1] - The current market sentiment surrounding gold is influenced by the recent legal developments regarding tariffs [1]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 22, A-share market indices declined, with Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3380.19, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.72% to 10219.62, and ChiNext Index down 0.96% to 2045.57. The trading volume was 1.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 70 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3913.86, down 2.52 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 22, the coke weighted index closed at 1407.4 yuan, down 12.1, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 827.7 yuan, down 14.2. Coke supply is ample due to high coking enterprise profits and production, while steel mill iron - water output may have peaked. Coking coal supply is stable with domestic mine复产 and slightly reduced Mongolian imports, but port inventory is rising due to weak demand [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - After five - day decline, ICE sugar rebounded on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2509 rose in the morning on May 22 but fell in the afternoon due to long - liquidation. In the night session, it declined due to falling crude oil prices. In April 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premix totaled 85,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 106,000 tons [1]. Rubber - On May 22, Shanghai rubber futures had a technical rebound during the day and narrow - range fluctuations at night. In April 2025, China's rubber tire production was 102 million pieces, up 3.1% year - on - year, and 1 - 4 month production was 385.58 million pieces, up 3.7%. Synthetic rubber production in April was 743,000 tons, up 15.2% year - on - year, and 1 - 4 month production was 2.947 million tons, up 11.3% [2]. Palm Oil - On May 22, palm oil futures declined within a range, with the main contract P2509 closing at 7994 yuan, down 1.36%. In May 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to increase by about 5% month - on - month, and exports by about 10% [2][3]. Soybean Meal - On May 22, CBOT soybean futures rose. As of May 15, US soybean export sales increased by 9% week - on - week. US soybean planting and emergence are better than normal, but recent rain may delay Midwest planting. In the domestic market, on May 22, soybean meal futures were stable, and about 12 million tons of imported soybeans are expected to arrive in May, leading to a supply - abundant market [3]. Live Hogs - On May 22, live hog futures declined slightly, with the LH2509 contract closing at 13,580 yuan/ton, down 0.51%. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have stocking demand, but hot weather, diet changes, and weak fresh pork sales lead to a supply - abundant market. In the long - term, high sow inventory will keep the market weak [4]. Shanghai Copper - In early May, China's industrial added - value growth slowed, and real - estate investment was weak, leading to lower - than - expected copper demand. The global copper concentrate supply is abundant, and SHFE copper inventory increased. The import window opened, and short - term copper is in an adjustment period, with a key support at 77,500 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - On May 22, iron ore futures rose slightly, with the 2509 contract closing at 727 yuan, up 0.14%. Overseas shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and port inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills' high profitability limits short - term production cuts, and iron ore will likely fluctuate [5]. Asphalt - On May 22, asphalt futures rose slightly, with the 2507 contract closing at 3539 yuan, up 0.45%. In June, refinery asphalt production will increase. Northern demand is rising, but southern demand may be affected by the rainy season, and asphalt will likely fluctuate [5]. Logs - On May 22, log futures opened at 778.5, closed at 777.5, and increased positions by 335 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port inventory decreased to a three - month low, but overall demand is weak, and the market is waiting for price stabilization [5]. Cotton - On the night of May 22, Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13,450 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 46 lots. In Pakistan, new cotton is on the market with limited transactions, and spinning mills are reducing inventory [6]. Steel - On May 22, rebar futures rb2510 closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil futures hc2510 closed at 3210 yuan/ton. This week, steel production decreased seasonally. Rebar demand declined significantly, and mill inventory increased. The market is now driven by fundamentals, and negative feedback expectations should be monitored [6]. Alumina - On May 22, alumina futures ao2509 closed at 3216 yuan/ton. The impact of the Guinea incident is uncertain, and short - term spot is tight, but supply may increase as profits recover, and price corrections should be watched [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 22, Shanghai aluminum futures al2507 closed at 20,210 yuan/ton. The impact of the Guinea incident on bauxite supply is to be evaluated. Aluminum demand is seasonally weak, and short - term processing enterprise operating rates will decline. Low inventory supports prices, but macro - negatives and weak demand limit upside [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose 44 yuan/ton to 63,380 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was stable at 63,050 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade at 61,450 yuan/ton. The market is weak, with few trades, and cost support is weakening [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weaker-than-expected results of the U.S. Treasury auction and its potential impact on gold prices, suggesting that bullish sentiment in the gold market may strengthen as a result [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury auction results were below expectations, indicating potential concerns in the bond market [1] - The gold market is experiencing renewed bullish activity, possibly driven by the recent auction results [1] - The article features insights from a senior futures researcher, Leo, who is analyzing market trends and the fundamentals of various commodities [1]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 16, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3367.46, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.07% to 10179.60, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.19% to 2039.45. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.0895 trillion yuan, a decrease of 62.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index continued to adjust on May 16, closing at 3889.08, down 18.11 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 16, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1447.9 yuan, down 27.4 from the previous day. The weighted coking coal index also remained weak, closing at 853.8 yuan, down 33.3 from the previous day [1]. - For coke, steel mills proposed the first - round price cut after the holiday. Relevant national ministries are promoting crude steel output control, and the MIIT is revising the implementation method for steel industry capacity replacement. In the short - term, coke supply elasticity is better than coking coal, and the increase in hot metal output is limited. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 7 yuan/ton this period [1]. - For coking coal, Mongolian 5 raw coal was reported at 815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The supply is loose, mine production is stable, and the refined coal inventory continued to increase this period [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the expected recovery of sugar cane harvesting progress in central - southern Brazil, ICE sugar futures fell on Friday. Affected by the decline in ICE sugar, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which declined slightly. The ISO raised its forecast for the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons from the previous 4.88 million tons, due to lower - than - expected production in India and Pakistan [2]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed slightly lower on the night of May 16. As of May 16, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 206,043 tons, an increase of 2800 tons from the previous day, and the futures warehouse receipts were 200,270 tons, a decrease of 230 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 74,793 tons, a decrease of 4838 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 70,257 tons, a decrease of 4435 tons [2]. Soybean Meal - The Sino - US economic and trade talks reached an important consensus, which boosted the price of US soybeans. However, the good start of US soybeans in 2025 and the good planting and growing conditions exerted pressure on soybean futures prices. Brazil's soybean harvest is basically completed, with an expected output of 168 million tons, resulting in a generally loose market supply [3]. - In the domestic market, on May 16, soybean meal futures prices fluctuated. The M2509 contract closed at 2899 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82%. Since May, the arrival volume of imported soybeans has increased rapidly, the oil refinery operating rate has continuously increased, and the soybean meal inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, but the increase is slow and still at a low level. With the upcoming peak arrival of imported soybeans, the market expects that the demand of terminal feed and breeding enterprises may be less than the supply of soybean meal, so the soybean meal market may maintain a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. Live Pigs - On May 16, live pig futures prices were weak. The LH2509 contract closed at 13,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87%. In May, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises has increased month - on - month. Affected by the narrowing price difference between fat and lean pigs, farmers are more willing to slaughter medium - and large - sized pigs, but have a general willingness to slaughter standard pigs and still have a mentality of holding prices. Currently, the overall consumer demand is weak, the consumer diet structure has been adjusted, and there are many alternative consumptions, resulting in poor sales of fresh pork. The market is generally in a situation of loose supply, and live pig futures prices may be weakly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [4]. Iron Ore - On May 16, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated and closed down 0.95% at 728 yuan. Last week, the overseas shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both decreased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the supply level tightened. The hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. In the short - term, iron ore prices may fluctuate [4]. Asphalt - On May 16, the main 2506 contract of asphalt futures fluctuated and closed up 0.75% at 3510 yuan. Recently, due to the improvement of refinery production profits, the production load has been increased to varying degrees, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate has continued to increase month - on - month, the inventory level has rebounded, and the shipment volume has increased month - on - month. However, affected by rainy weather, the demand is still hindered. In the short - term, asphalt prices may fluctuate [5]. Cotton - On the night of May 16, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13,415 yuan/ton. As of May 19, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Exchange was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 2 lots compared with the previous day. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in major cotton - producing countries and the impact of macro - policies on supply and demand expectations [5]. Shanghai Copper - Currently, Shanghai copper is in a high - level volatile state. On the supply side, the global copper concentrate supply is loose, but overseas smelter maintenance and low domestic inventory cause supply disruptions. On the demand side, the demand in the new energy vehicle and infrastructure sectors is resilient, while weak real estate investment drags down the overall demand. At the macro level, the Fed's interest rate policy remains unchanged, the US dollar fluctuates, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks and changes in tariff policies affect market sentiment. Technically, the main contract of Shanghai copper has support around 77,000 yuan and resistance above 78,500 yuan. Overall, with multiple factors intertwined, without major unexpected events, Shanghai copper prices may fluctuate within the current range. Attention should be paid to the dynamic changes of macro - policies, supply and demand, and inventory [6]. Logs - On May 16, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 788, with a minimum of 779.5, a maximum of 794, and closed at 783, with an increase of 1585 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 and the resistance at 790. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. The port log inventory has dropped to a two - month low, and the outbound volume has increased slightly. The overall demand is still weak, and there is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Attention should be paid to import data, downstream purchasing, and traders' willingness to hold prices [7]. Steel - After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, there has been a rush to ship on the Sino - US route, reversing the previous pessimistic expectation of reduced demand due to potential tariff increases. Recently, the rush to ship has brought a wave of demand for the black - colored commodities, but the tariffs are only reduced, not completely eliminated, which essentially overdrafts future demand, and there is still some pressure on the export side in the future. In addition, the off - season is approaching, and domestic demand tends to weaken seasonally. Currently, it is difficult for the demand side to improve further. The overall supply - demand pattern of the black - colored commodities remains oversupplied. In the short - term, supported by strong current conditions, steel prices may fluctuate and consolidate, but in the medium - term, the weak trend remains unchanged [7][9]. Alumina - On the raw material side, Guinea has been actively shipping before the rainy season. After the arrival of this batch of goods, the domestic port inventory will increase, and the raw material supply will be supplemented, leading to a decline in the price of bauxite. On the supply side of alumina, due to the previously low spot price, some domestic smelters have carried out maintenance and production reduction operations to control the supply, and traders also have a sentiment of holding prices and惜售. The oversupply situation of alumina has improved. On the demand side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the upper limit, and the demand for alumina is relatively stable. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a state of slightly converging supply and stable demand, but due to the decline in raw material prices, the cost support has weakened [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, on the supply side of electrolytic aluminum, the new domestic production capacity increment is sporadic, and the operating production capacity is approaching the industry "ceiling", so the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is relatively stable. On the demand side, in the domestic market, the downstream aluminum processing industry is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, and the downstream operating rate has declined; in the overseas market, due to the easing of Sino - US tariff attitudes, there is some demand boost for domestic exports, and the overall demand maintains a slight increase. With relatively stable supply, the industrial inventory is continuously decreasing. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly increasing demand [9].

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2505 | 22905 | 22910 | 23100 | 22840 | 160 | 0.70 | 315 | -55 | | 沪锌 | 2506 | 2288 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of easing U.S. tariffs has led to a continued pullback in gold prices, prompting analysis of future market performance in commodities [1] Group 1 - The live analysis session will focus on the current market trends for gold and other popular futures [1] - The session will provide insights into the fundamental aspects of these commodities and their future trajectories [1]