Market Overview - The U.S. stock market rebounded on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones increasing by 225.86 points (0.48%) to 47,311.10, the Nasdaq rising by 0.65% to 23,499.80, and the S&P 500 gaining 0.37% to 6,796.29, driven by optimistic corporate earnings and better-than-expected economic data [2] - The ADP reported an addition of 42,000 jobs in the private sector for October, indicating a rebound, although signs of labor market weakness persist with ongoing layoffs in some industries [4] - The ISM services PMI for October reached 52.4, marking the fastest expansion in eight months, primarily due to a rapid recovery in new orders, despite companies facing the highest input costs in three years [4] Company Performance - Notable tech stocks showed varied performance: Tesla rose by 4%, Google by 2.4%, Meta by 1.3%, Amazon by 0.3%, while Nvidia fell by 1.7% [3] - Ford and General Motors, which are sensitive to tariff risks, saw their stock prices increase by over 2% following the Supreme Court's skepticism regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by former President Trump [5] - Caterpillar's stock also rose approximately 4%, reflecting positive market sentiment amid tariff uncertainty [5] Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.4 basis points to 4.16%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4.8 basis points to 3.63%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards interest rates [5] - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude oil falling by 1.59% to $59.60 per barrel and Brent crude down by 1.43% to $63.52 per barrel [6] - Gold prices rebounded, with COMEX gold futures for November delivery rising by 0.83% to $3,980.30 per ounce, driven by increased risk aversion [6]

据《城市新闻室》10月31日报道，加纳黄金产业在2024年为国内生产总值 （GDP）贡献了881亿加纳塞地，截至2025年8月，黄金出口额达到112亿美 元。 副总统进一步表示，对阿哈福北矿超过10亿美元的投资证明了加纳有能力 吸引全球主要投资者。她强调，该项目不仅能增加国家收入，还能通过当地就 业和社区项目刺激阿哈福地区及其他地区的发展。 副总统简·纳纳·奥波库-阿杰曼在2025年10月30日纽蒙特阿哈福北矿落成典 礼上指出，采矿业仍然是加纳经济的关键驱动力，最新数据显示，采矿业在创 造就业、增加收入和吸引投资方面发挥着核心作用。 2024年加纳GDP总量为11762.2亿塞地（加纳统计局数据），黄金产业约占 GDP总量的7.5%。 （原标题：2024年加纳黄金产业贡献880亿塞地GDP） "去年，加纳黄金产业为我国国内生产总值贡献了881亿加纳塞地。此外， 今年我国黄金出口额达到创纪录的112亿美元。这些数据表明并增强了人们对 我国经济、治理和国家潜力的信心。" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows a strengthening trend in the auto market retail at the end of the month, while production is restricted by environmental protection measures. The inflation situation features a bottom - oscillating pork price and an oscillatingly strong oil price [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Growth: Strengthening Auto Market Retail at the End of the Month 1.1 Production: Environmental Protection Restricts开工 - **Production End: Slowing Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption** - On November 4, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 75.7 tons, a 1.4% decrease from October 28. On October 30, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 180.5 tons, a 2.9% decrease from October 22. Although the consumption has slowed down, industrial electricity consumption has increased due to the positive impact of Sino - US negotiations on the black - series products [5][12]. - **Production End: Local Sharp Decline in Blast Furnace Operating Rate** - On October 31, the national blast furnace operating rate was 81.7%, a 3.0 - percentage - point decrease from October 24, and the capacity utilization rate was 88.6%, a 1.3 - percentage - point decrease. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 68.3%, a 25.1 - percentage - point decrease from October 24. The start - up rate has dropped significantly due to the start of heavy - pollution weather warnings in many places [15]. - **Production End: Moderate Decline in Tire Operating Rate** - On October 30, the operating rate of all - steel tires for trucks was 65.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from October 23, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires for cars was 73.4%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase. The operating rate of downstream looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions reached a new high for the year [17]. 1.2 Demand: Strengthening Auto Market Retail at the End of the Month - **Demand End: Improved Monthly - on - Monthly New Home Sales in 30 Cities** - From November 1 - 4, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 155,000 square meters, a 145.6% increase from October, but a 53.3% decrease from November last year. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities decreased year - on - year [22]. - **Demand End: Strengthening Auto Market Retail at the End of the Month** - In October, retail sales increased by 6% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 7% year - on - year. In the fifth week of October, retail and wholesale reached daily averages of 155,000 and 210,000 vehicles respectively, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month growth [26]. - **Demand End: Weak Steel Prices** - On November 4, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by - 1.2%, 0%, - 2.4%, and + 0.3% respectively compared to October 28. Since November, these varieties have shown different year - on - year and month - on - month changes. Steel inventories are seasonally decreasing [31]. - **Demand End: Oscillatingly Strong Cement Prices** - On November 4, the national cement price index increased by 0.1% compared to October 28, but prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased. The year - on - year decline in cement prices has widened [32]. - **Demand End: Narrow - Range Oscillation of Glass Prices** - On November 4, the active glass futures contract price was 1,103 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decrease from October 28. Since November, glass prices have shown a month - on - month and year - on - year decline [37]. - **Demand End: Strong Increase in Container Shipping Freight Index** - On October 31, the CCFI index increased by 2.9% and the SCFI index increased by 10.5% compared to October 24. Since October, both indices have shown different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [39]. 2. Inflation: Bottom - Oscillating Pork Price 2.1 CPI: Bottom - Oscillating Pork Price - **Pork Price Bottom - Oscillating** - On November 4, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, a 0.1% decrease from October 28. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, and the month - on - month decline has narrowed [45]. - **Slowing Growth Rate of Agricultural Product Price Index** - On November 4, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.9% compared to October 28. Different agricultural products showed different price changes. Since November, the index has shown year - on - year and month - on - month increases [51]. 2.2 PPI: Oscillatingly Strong Oil Price - **Oil Price Oscillatingly Strong** - On November 4, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 65.5 and 60.6 dollars/barrel respectively, increasing by 1.6% and 0.7% compared to October 28. OPEC's decision to suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year supports the oil price [54]. - **Decline in Copper and Aluminum Prices** - On November 4, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 2.9% and remained flat respectively compared to October 28. Since November, they have shown different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [58]. - **Most Industrial Product Prices Continue to Decline Month - on - Month** - Since November, industrial product prices have shown mixed changes. Most of the year - on - year declines have converged, but the year - on - year declines in cement and glass prices have widened [62].

Economic Outlook - The economic growth momentum has weakened since Q3 2025, with GDP growth expected to decline to approximately 4.8% in Q3 and 4.5% in Q4, although the annual growth target of around 5% is still achievable due to strong performance in the first half of the year [1][7] - The report indicates that the main reasons for the weakening domestic demand include the reduction in the effectiveness of the trade-in subsidy policy and a significant decline in restaurant consumption, which aligns with previous analyses [3][5] Consumer Spending - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5] - The decline in retail sales growth is primarily attributed to the diminishing impact of the trade-in subsidy policy, with sales growth for home appliances and communication equipment dropping significantly [5] - Service consumption has outperformed goods consumption, contributing positively to overall consumption growth, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% compared to 4.8% for goods [5][3] Real Estate Market - The real estate market has accelerated its downturn since Q3, with pressures on both supply and demand sides becoming more pronounced [6] - Demand has decreased due to a continuous decline in residents' willingness to purchase homes, while supply is increasing with a residential inventory of 400 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [6][8] Housing Supply Issues - The average housing supply interruption rate across the country has risen to 3.7%, up from 1.6% in 2022, with some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 5% [8] - This represents a 130% increase in mortgage interruption rates over three years, highlighting significant challenges in the housing market [8] Future Economic Predictions - The report provides forecasts for various economic indicators for Q3 and Q4 of 2025, suggesting a cautious outlook for the macroeconomic environment if no new stimulus policies are introduced [10][7]

Group 1 - The core argument is that the government aims to stimulate consumer spending to drive economic growth, as low consumer spending leads to a vicious cycle of reduced income and further decreased spending [1][10] - The current economic situation shows that many households are financially constrained, with 5.6 billion people having empty bank accounts and 90% of families having savings of less than 100,000 yuan [3][5] - The government is not merely pushing for increased spending but is trying to create an environment where consumers feel confident to spend by addressing their financial concerns [7][10] Group 2 - The government is implementing measures such as lowering deposit interest rates to encourage spending by making money feel less valuable, thus prompting consumers to spend rather than save [5][8] - Issuing consumption vouchers is intended to provide consumers with a sense of financial security, making them feel that their purchases are worthwhile [5][10] - The government recognizes that simply providing financial incentives is insufficient; it is focusing on improving income, social security, and reducing living costs to enhance consumers' spending capacity [10][11] Group 3 - The ultimate goal is to increase consumption growth rates to 5-6% and raise the proportion of final consumption in GDP to over 60%, which requires a multifaceted approach beyond just issuing consumption vouchers [10] - The shift in government strategy emphasizes enhancing consumer capability rather than just stimulating short-term spending, aiming for a healthier and more sustainable economy [10][11] - The government seeks to create a consumer environment where individuals feel they have the financial means and confidence to spend, thus revitalizing the consumption market [11]

Core Points - The Australian Trade Minister Farrell announced the participation of a record number of 256 Australian companies at the 8th China International Import Expo in Shanghai from November 5 to 10 [1] - The expo serves as a significant platform for Australian businesses to showcase high-quality goods and services to China, which is Australia's largest export market [1] - The event is expected to yield tangible results for Australian exporters, with opportunities for signing commercial cooperation memorandums worth millions of Australian dollars [1] Group 1 - The 8th China International Import Expo will take place from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai [1] - A total of 256 Australian companies will participate, marking a historical high for the event [1] - The showcased products will include dairy, meat, seafood, wine, and health products to meet the demands of the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - The expo is anticipated to create job opportunities and drive economic growth for Australia [1] - The event also provides an opportunity for Australia to promote tourism, aiming to offer world-class experiences for Chinese tourists [1] - China is expected to remain Australia's largest trading partner in the foreseeable future [1]

Economic Activity Changes - Economic activity has faced new pressures on both supply and demand sides since October, with a decrease in working days and high inventory levels constraining production [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with the production index declining more than new orders [2][9] - Demand pressure is particularly evident in the manufacturing sector, as companies accelerate debt repayments, which negatively impacts fixed asset investment [2][20] Profitability and Cost Pressures - Excluding low base effects, industrial profits are weaker than in previous years, with the overall cost rate at a historical high of 85.4% [3][31] - In September, industrial profits increased by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5%, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9% [3][31] Policy Measures to Mitigate Growth Pressure - The introduction of "incremental policies" aims to alleviate the investment squeeze caused by debt resolution, with nearly 300 billion yuan in new policy financial tools deployed by October [4][39] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival is expected to temporarily boost retail sales, while service consumption remains resilient, with a projected retail sales rebound of 3.4% in October [4][50] Export Dynamics - The U.S. threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods starting in November, which may trigger a "rush to export" phenomenon, supporting October's export figures [5][60] - October's export growth is expected to remain resilient at 7%, bolstered by a rise in processing trade imports [5][60] Monthly Data Performance - The PPI is expected to recover slightly to -2.1% in October, driven by rising prices of upstream commodities like copper and coal, despite low capacity utilization in downstream sectors [6][74] - CPI is projected to rise to 0.4% year-on-year in October, supported by low base effects and resilient service consumption [6][82] Summary of Economic Outlook - Policies are actively countering internal economic pressures, with the actual GDP for October estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth [7][95] - High inventory levels and accelerated debt repayments are constraining supply and demand, but recent policy measures and easing U.S.-China tariff tensions may signal a potential economic recovery [7][95]

Economic Activity Changes - Economic activity has faced new pressures on both supply and demand sides since October, with a decrease in working days and high inventory levels constraining production [2][8] - The manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with production indices declining more than new orders [2][8] - Demand pressure is particularly evident in the manufacturing sector, as companies accelerate debt repayments, which negatively impacts fixed asset investment [2][19] Profitability and Cost Pressures - Excluding low base effects, industrial profits are weaker than in previous years, with the overall cost rate at a historical high of 85.4% [3][30] - In September, industrial profits increased by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5%, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9% [3][30] - The increase in profits is primarily driven by short-term indicators, while long-term cost pressures continue to rise, affecting profit sustainability [3][30] Policy Measures to Mitigate Growth Pressure - The introduction of new incremental policies aims to alleviate the investment squeeze caused by debt resolution efforts, with significant financial tools being deployed [4][38] - As of mid-October, nearly 300 billion yuan in new policy financial tools have been issued, focusing on infrastructure and emerging sectors [4][38] - The proportion of special refinancing bonds in new special bonds decreased from 56.9% to 16.7%, indicating a shift in funding allocation [4][38] Consumption Trends - The anticipation of the "Double Eleven" shopping festival is expected to temporarily boost retail sales, with a projected rebound of 3.4% in October [4][49] - Service consumption remains resilient, with holiday spending showing a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, surpassing goods consumption growth of 3.6% [4][49] - However, retail sales may weaken post-festival due to high base effects and consumer demand being "overdrawn" [4][49] Export Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in US-China tariffs have led to a "rush to export," potentially supporting October's export figures, which are expected to maintain resilience at 7% year-on-year [4][59] - The threat of a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods by the US has prompted increased export activity, with port freight volumes rising by 18% in the last week of October [4][59] - The recovery in processing trade imports also supports the outlook for exports, indicating ongoing demand for Chinese goods [4][59] Monthly Data Performance - The PPI is expected to recover slightly to around -2.1% in October, driven by rising prices in upstream commodities despite low capacity utilization in downstream sectors [5][73] - CPI is projected to rise above 0% due to low base effects and resilient service consumption, with an expected recovery to 0.4% year-on-year [5][81] - The actual GDP growth for October is estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth despite supply-side constraints and demand-side risks [6][94]

Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points, more than the new orders index which dropped by 0.9 percentage points, highlighting greater supply-side constraints[15] - High inventory levels and a reduction in working days (only 18 days in October, down 3 days year-on-year) are contributing to production constraints[3] Profitability and Cost Pressures - In September, industrial profits rose by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5% year-on-year, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9%[4] - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.4%, with a marginal decline in profit contribution from costs, indicating ongoing cost pressures[4][29] Policy Measures and Economic Support - The government has initiated new policy financial tools amounting to nearly 300 billion yuan to support debt resolution and investment, with a focus on digital economy and infrastructure[5] - A total of 5 trillion yuan has been allocated to local governments to support debt resolution and project construction, which may alleviate investment pressures[5][34] Consumer Behavior and Retail Trends - Anticipated "Double Eleven" promotions are expected to temporarily boost retail sales, with a projected rebound of 3.4% in October retail sales[5] - Service consumption showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% during the holiday period, outperforming goods consumption which grew by 3.6%[5] Export Performance - October exports are expected to maintain resilience at 7% year-on-year, supported by a surge in foreign trade cargo volume, which increased by 18% in the last week of October[6][45] - The U.S. threat of imposing 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods has led to a "rush to export," further bolstering export figures[6] Inflation Indicators - The CPI is expected to recover to above 0% in October, driven by low base effects and resilient service consumption[7][61] - The PPI is projected to rise to around -2.1%, influenced by rising prices in upstream commodities like copper and coal, despite ongoing overcapacity in downstream sectors[7][57] Economic Growth Outlook - The actual GDP growth for October is estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth despite supply-side constraints and demand-side risks[8][72] - The nominal GDP growth is projected at 3.3%, reflecting the overall economic performance amidst various pressures[8][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Stocks**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2][3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation and rebound, cautious long positions [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious long positions [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level correction, cautious wait - and - see [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US economic data shows signs of cooling, but the market has doubts about the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year, leading to a stronger US dollar and a decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down, but the policy stimulus expectation increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and the quality of economic growth, with the short - term upward macro - drive weakening [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, stocks are expected to oscillate in the short term, precious metals are in a short - term high - level correction, and various commodities have different trends and investment strategies based on their fundamentals [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, with weak demand, employment, and cooling inflation. The US job market shows signs of cooling, and corporate lay - offs this year have reached a new high since 2020. The US dollar index has strengthened, and global risk appetite has declined. Domestically, China's manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down. Policy stimulus expectations increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2]. - **Stocks**: Driven by sectors such as film and television theaters, short - drama games, and oil and gas, the domestic stock market rose. The manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations increased. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation and rebound, cautious long positions [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market declined slightly on Monday night. The market is waiting for US private - sector employment data to assess the possibility of the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year. Short - term oscillation, long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3]. 3.2 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets declined slightly on Monday, and trading volume remained low. Real - world demand improved marginally in late October, and speculative demand also increased. Supply decreased due to losses in some varieties and environmental protection restrictions. The short - term steel market is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate within a range [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined more on Monday. With the narrowing of steel mill profits and the upgrading of environmental protection restrictions, pig iron production continued to decline, and steel mill ore inventories decreased. The global iron ore arrival volume increased significantly this week, and port inventories continued to rise. Iron ore prices are expected to decline further [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron declined slightly, and that of silicon manganese remained flat on Monday, with the futures prices oscillating. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys was fair. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated within a range on Monday. Supply increased this week, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter, with supply remaining loose. Demand remained stable. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will drag down prices, and a bearish view is recommended [7]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass opened high and closed low on Monday, affected by news from Shahe. Supply remained stable, demand was weak year - on - year, and inventory was relatively high. With the support of anti - involution policies, glass is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the year - end completion peak [7]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Multiple Fed officials oppose interest rate cuts. US copper inventories are at a historical high, which restricts future import demand. There is a possibility of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestically, refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine will support futures prices, and short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply to a one - year high. There is no clear news, and the rise may be due to the repair of the copper - aluminum price ratio and concerns about supply after overseas smelter accidents. The current rise has deviated from fundamentals, and attention should be paid to risks. LME aluminum inventories increased last Friday, and domestic aluminum social inventories de - stocked slowly [9]. - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate increased significantly and then decreased slightly, remaining at a high level. Supply is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and high prices suppress physical demand. However, due to previous low inventories, some downstream enterprises replenished stocks, and inventories decreased. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium and short term [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Monday. The current supply and demand are both strong, and social inventories are de - stocking rapidly. There was a rumor of the resumption of production in Jiangxi, which led to a decline in the weighted contract. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Monday. Demand is relatively stable, and social inventories are slightly increasing at a high level. Supported by the cash - flow cost of large enterprises and the rising coal price, the market is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Monday. With strong policy expectations and weak reality in a stalemate, the spot price of polysilicon is supported, but terminal demand is weak. Affected by the rumor of polysilicon storage and the resonance of the photovoltaic sector, it is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buy on dips [12][13]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is weighing OPEC+'s plan to suspend production increases next quarter. There are concerns about oversupply next year. The short - term upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to window trading [14]. - **Asphalt**: The cost support of asphalt weakened, and the basis narrowed. There is a slight inventory accumulation pressure, and it is approaching the demand off - season. Although the profit is slightly increasing, the supply pressure will increase later. Attention should be paid to the rebound space of crude oil under geopolitical risks [14]. - **PX**: Crude oil price rebound slowed down, and PX oscillated. PTA's high start - up rate provides some demand support. PX remains in a tight supply situation, and short - term price changes are mainly driven by crude oil costs [15]. - **PTA**: Downstream start - up increased slightly, and winter weaving demand increased. However, the supply remains high, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in November [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories accumulated again, and the downstream start - up is neutral. There is a large inventory accumulation pressure in November, and the price is testing the previous low support with limited rebound drive [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillates with the polyester sector in the short term, but the later pressure is large. Terminal orders are seasonally declining, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [16]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market shows regional differentiation. Port inventories are slightly decreasing, while inland inventories are accumulating. In the short term, the market sentiment is bearish, but the downward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate later [17]. - **PP**: The supply growth rate of PP is higher than the demand recovery rate, and the inventory is relatively high. However, demand shows marginal improvement, and the rebound of crude oil prices supports the cost. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. - **LLDPE**: The core contradiction in the polyethylene market is the increasing supply pressure. Demand is expected to decline after the peak in early November, and the cost support is weak. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure [17]. - **Urea**: Urea supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Agricultural demand is approaching the end, and industrial demand is weak. Export is expected to remain at a low level [18]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean futures rose overnight. Sino - US agricultural trade is expected to improve, and the USDA may raise the export forecast. If the yield per unit decreases, the US soybean ending inventory will shrink, strengthening the cost - recovery logic [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals in China is increasing, and soybean meal supply is sufficient. The repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations may lead to higher import costs and potential inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal prices rose, and the spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow [19][20]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil has entered a technically oversold stage. Although there is short - term supply disturbance, it has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains unchanged. It is running weakly in China [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil is adjusting weakly. The supply is strong, but it is relatively resistant to decline due to the increase in import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory is high, but rapeseed inventory is low, and the base price is supported by trade concerns [22]. - **Corn**: The pressure of wet corn sales has weakened, and the spot price is stable. The futures price is running weakly, but the bottom - range market may provide support [22]. - **Hogs**: The overall slaughter volume of pig groups is expected to increase in November. The breeding profit is in the red, and the pig price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice bacon - curing consumption peak in December [22].