金融研究 2025年12月3日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 2 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.42%，报收 3897.71 点；深成 指下跌 0.68%，报收 13056.7 点；创业板指下跌 0.69%，报收 3071.15 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.24%， 报收 1320.16 点。市场成交 16,073 亿元，较前日减少 2,822 亿元。行业板块方面，石油石化(+0.71%)， 轻工制造(+0.55%)，家用电器(+0.43%)涨幅居前；传媒(-1.75%)，有色金属(-1.36%)，计算机(-1.34%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IF>IH>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,541/171/3,739。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-195、-116、70、241 亿元，分别变动-235、-72、+85、+222 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 147.78、112.9、36.53 与 13.27 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-15.79%、-12.53%、-6.27%与-3.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean President Lee Jae-myung stated that the current prices are "relatively stable" and the economy is experiencing a rapid recovery, which may put pressure on prices in the future [1] Economic Conditions - The rapid economic recovery is occurring faster than expected, with improvements in economic growth, market sentiment, and capital markets [1] - The worst-case scenario would be rising prices during an economic downturn, similar to the previous government's period [1] Public Sentiment and Commemoration - December 3rd is proposed to be designated as "People's Sovereignty Day" and a public holiday to commemorate the overturning of the martial law decree [1]

尽管美联储已经连续多次加息，但在证词中，美联储主席暗示未来可能放缓加息步伐。他表示，随着通 胀压力的逐渐缓解和经济的复苏，美联储将根据实际情况调整货币政策，以确保经济稳定和可持续发 展。此外，他还指出，未来的决策将考虑通胀数据、就业市场状况以及全球经济环境等多个因素。 三、对未来经济的展望 在证词中，美联储主席还对未来的经济展望进行了阐述。他表示，尽管当前面临一些挑战，但美国经济 具有韧性，并有望实现全面复苏。然而，为了实现这一目标，需要继续采取措施确保通胀回到目标水 平，并维持经济的稳定增长。此外，他还强调了全球经济环境对美国经济的影响，并表示将密切关注国 际形势的变化。 一、重申对抗通胀的决心 在证词中，美联储主席明确表示，对抗通胀仍是当前的首要任务。他强调，通胀对经济和民众生活造成 的影响深远，美联储将继续采取措施确保通胀回到目标水平。此外，他还指出，通胀的根源在于供应链 问题、能源价格以及部分商品需求的暂时性上升等因素。为了应对这些挑战，美联储已经采取了一系列 措施，包括调整货币政策和财政政策等。 二、可能放缓加息步伐 四、总结 资讯文章标题：美联储主席在国会证词中重申对抗通胀的决心，暗示可能放缓加息 ...

新华财经北京12月2日电最新数据显示，英国通胀压力虽在11月继续缓解，但私营部门对经济前景的悲 观情绪同步加剧，凸显当前复苏基础依然脆弱。 根据英国零售业联盟（BRC）周二发布的数据，11月商店价格年通胀率进一步放缓至0.6%，低于10月 的1%。这一回落主要受"黑色星期五"促销活动提前启动影响。其中，食品价格通胀从10月的3.7%降至 3%，新鲜食品价格更创下自2020年12月以来的最大降幅。然而，油类、肉类和鱼类等品类价格仍在加 速上涨，反映出生产商正将更高的成本转嫁给零售商与消费者。 尽管整体物价趋缓，零售业联盟警告称，由于2026年多项成本预计上升，零售商可能难以持续压低价 格。该判断与英国国家统计局此前公布的10月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3.6%形成呼应。英国央 行曾指出，食品价格在塑造公众通胀预期方面具有关键作用，其后续走势备受关注。 调查还指出，全年持续存在的增长阻力——包括家庭及客户的谨慎消费行为，以及企业面临的高成本压 力——正加剧经济疲软态势。在此背景下，企业预计将在未来三个月内减少招聘。 （文章来源：新华财经） 与此同时，英国工业联合会（CBI）最新行业调查揭示出企业端的深度忧虑 ...

Market Overview - In November, the A-share market exhibited a downward trend, contrasting with optimistic expectations at the beginning of the month [1] - Major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, fell by 1.67%, the CSI 300 by 2.46%, and the Wind All A Index by 2.22% [2] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 4.23%, and the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 6.24%, indicating a significant adjustment in growth-style sectors [2] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as comprehensive services, banking, textiles, petrochemicals, and light manufacturing showed relative stability, while sectors like computers, automobiles, electronics, and non-bank financials experienced substantial declines [2] - Over 60% of stocks recorded negative returns, highlighting a marked reduction in market profitability [2] Market Adjustment Reasons - The decline in the market is attributed to multiple factors, including a cooling global AI investment theme, which negatively impacted growth sectors [3] - Concerns over the domestic economic recovery were underscored by a manufacturing PMI drop to 49.0 in October and a 5.5% year-on-year decline in industrial profits [3] - An unexpected tightening of overseas liquidity, driven by strong U.S. employment data, has also contributed to market pressures [3] December Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in December, with a focus on economic fundamentals and liquidity events [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in mid-December and the Central Economic Work Conference in China are critical for market direction [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - A "defensive + growth" allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation sectors such as banking and utilities for stability [5] - Growth sectors with reasonable valuations, including energy storage, military, AI computing, power grid equipment, and semiconductors, are identified as having mid-term investment value [5][6] Sector-Specific Insights - The energy storage sector is projected to grow over 40% due to increased demand and policy support [6] - The military sector benefits from the transition between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, showing high earnings visibility [6] - The AI computing sector has seen a doubling in domestic server shipments year-on-year, driven by surging demand [6] - The power grid equipment sector is supported by accelerated construction and increased overseas exports [6] - The semiconductor sector is driven by demand from AI chips and automotive semiconductors, indicating strong earnings elasticity [6] Conclusion - The market will continue to navigate between "overseas liquidity pressures" and "domestic policy support capabilities" in December [7] - Investors are advised to monitor key domestic and international policy signals while maintaining a defensive position and gradually increasing allocations in high-growth areas [7]

韩国现代研究院9月发布报告预测，韩国本土设施投资增速将从今年的1.8%放缓至明年的1.5%。报告认为，美国关税影响预计将在2026年全面显 现，或削弱韩国出口需求、恶化贸易条件，进一步压缩企业在本土的新增投资空间。 企业经营预期方面，韩国《京乡新闻》报道显示，明年39.5%企业计划维持现状，但大企业的态度明显更趋保守，有41%选择"紧缩型经营"，比例 高于中小企业。在具体措施上，"人力资源运用合理化"最常被列为紧缩方案，占比达到61.1%。招聘计划方面，有52.3%企业将维持现有招聘规 模，但在300人以上的大企业中，选择"缩减招聘人数"的比例最高，达41%。 【环球时报驻韩国特约记者 黎枳银】面对复杂的国内外经贸环境，韩国大型企业正加速调整投资布局。韩国经营者总协会（KEF）最新调查显 示，在美国关税压力、全球经营环境不确定性加剧的背景下，韩国越来越多的大企业计划自2026年起削减国内投资、加码海外支出。韩国业内担 忧，这一趋势恐加剧资本外流风险，为本土经济复苏进程增添额外压力。 韩国经营者总协会日前对229家30人以上企业的首席执行官和高管开展"2026年企业经营展望调查"。结果显示，47.1%的企业计划 ...

Manufacturing Sector - In November 2025, the Manufacturing PMI recorded 49.2%, a marginal increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.0%, reflecting stable production levels, with notable activity in food processing and non-ferrous metal industries[12] - New orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, suggesting marginal recovery in market demand[12] - The raw material inventory index remained low at 47.3%, indicating cautious inventory strategies among enterprises[12] - Small enterprises' PMI rose to 49.1%, the highest in six months, while large enterprises' PMI fell to 49.3%, indicating greater pressure on larger firms[17] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in service sector activity[2] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing recorded 45.7%, indicating weak demand in the sector[22] - The business activity expectation index rose to 56.2%, suggesting optimism about medium to long-term market prospects driven by policy support and seasonal factors[3] Economic Outlook - Overall, the manufacturing sector remains below the 50% threshold, indicating ongoing contraction and economic downward pressure[5] - Rising raw material prices may increase cost pressures for mid and small-sized enterprises, necessitating caution regarding rapid cost increases[5] - Future recovery in manufacturing is anticipated to be supported by year-end policy implementations and improved external trade conditions[5]

本文字数：2413，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 冯迪凡 在经历了超过五年的停滞之后，德国经济可能正在显现复苏迹象。 2025.11.28 欧盟在近期发布的最新预测中表示，预计德国经济在2026年和2027年都将增长1.2%。 德国联邦统计局发布数据也显示，德国第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）保持平稳，避免了经济衰退。与 此同时，德国9月份工业订单和产出以及出口均有所回升。德国联邦银行表示，在服务业扩张和工业部 门企稳的推动下，预计第四季度将实现温和增长。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）专家在近日访问德国后发表声明表示，德国政府对债务刹车机制进行了具有 里程碑意义的改革，预计这将有助于推动经济逐步复苏。 "复苏指日可待。"德意志银行首席德国经济学家温克勒（Robin Winkler）表示，"我们只需要等待财政 刺激措施真正发挥作用。" 第一财经采访的多位学者和德国经济学家均指出，作为欧洲最大经济体，德国近年来遭受一系列打击， 包括地缘政治冲突带来的能源成本飙升、美国提高对德出口关税以及在汽车等关键领域面临激烈竞争 等，但这些挫折也给德国政策制定者和企业敲响了警钟，他们更加重视增加投资、提高借贷规模和增加 国 ...

Economic Outlook - The European Union forecasts that the German economy will grow by 1.2% in both 2026 and 2027, indicating potential signs of recovery after over five years of stagnation [1] - The German Federal Statistical Office reported that the GDP remained stable in the third quarter, avoiding recession, with industrial orders, output, and exports showing signs of recovery [1][4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that reforms to the debt brake mechanism by the German government are expected to support gradual economic recovery [1] Investment and Infrastructure - The German government has established a special fund totaling €500 billion for infrastructure projects, which is classified as additional debt and does not count against the current debt ceiling [2][5] - A significant portion of this fund is allocated for defense, with local arms manufacturers hiring workers from the automotive sector to support expansion plans [5] - Analysts believe that the efficiency of implementing these infrastructure projects is crucial, as delays could lead to inflationary pressures [5][10] Economic Challenges - Despite the positive outlook, the IMF warned that without further bold reforms at both domestic and EU levels, Germany faces serious mid-term growth challenges [2][8] - The labor force in Germany is expected to decline more sharply than in any other G7 country over the next five years, posing a significant challenge to economic growth [8] - Concerns have been raised about the potential misuse of new borrowing, with warnings that funds could be diverted to welfare spending rather than infrastructure [9][10] Long-term Growth Potential - The IMF anticipates that higher government spending starting in 2026 will provide a significant boost to economic growth, with GDP growth expected to accelerate to around 1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 [6][7] - The construction sector, which has faced a deep recession, is seen as critical for Germany's economic recovery, with expectations of a rebound due to cyclical rather than structural issues [5][6] - The ongoing demand for high-end manufacturing within the EU is expected to support Germany's economy, despite challenges faced by the automotive industry [6]

Core Insights - Westpac Bank anticipates a significant enhancement in Australia's economic growth momentum in Q3, with GDP expected to increase by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and an annualized growth rate rising to 2.3%, slightly above the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest forecast of 2.0% [1] Economic Performance - The standout feature of the data is the strong performance of domestic demand, which is projected to surge by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, marking the strongest quarterly growth since early 2012 [1] - The economic recovery is becoming increasingly broad-based, supported by multiple sectors rather than relying on individual areas for growth [1] Future Outlook - As the impact of exceptionally large capital expenditure projects, particularly aircraft purchases, gradually diminishes, overall economic growth rates are expected to slow in the coming quarters [1] - However, excluding these one-off factors, the underlying growth rate for the quarter is still projected to remain at a healthy level of 0.6%, indicating inherent economic resilience [1] Productivity and Labor Costs - A significant rebound in productivity is anticipated, with an annual increase of 0.9%, which will help slow the growth rate of nominal unit labor costs to approximately 2.5% (on a six-month annualized basis) [1] - This development is seen as a positive signal for the Reserve Bank of Australia as it weighs inflation prospects [1]