Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall price of iron ore is returning to fundamentals as the hype sentiment fades. In September, the price is expected to be under pressure in the early stage and may rebound later, showing a trend of being weak first and then strong [11]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On September 3, the main iron ore outer - market quotes increased by $1 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 yuan per ton [9]. - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract shows a divergent trend, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a potential golden cross. The green bar of the daily MACD indicator is narrowing [9]. 1.2 Future Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, last week's shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil increased. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals in September are expected to further recover, showing a pattern of being low in the first half and high in the second half [10]. - On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output is slightly higher and remains above 2.4 million tons. The production and demand of the five major steel products continue to rise slightly, the steel mill inventory continues to decline slightly, and the social inventory has reached a new high since early May [10]. - Market expectations of the September 3rd production restrictions may lead to a situation of weak supply and demand for steel. Since early August, steel mill profits have generally declined by 120 - 150 yuan per ton, which may suppress raw material demand to some extent, but the impact is limited [11]. - Steel mills have resumed on - demand restocking, and port inventories have accumulated, with further accumulation expected in September [11]. 2. Industry News - As of August 30, the nine major construction central enterprises announced their new contract values in the first half of 2025, with a total new contract value of approximately 7.957727 trillion yuan [12]. - On September 2, data from ISM showed that the US manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August due to a decline in output. However, the new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the price index reached its lowest level since February, indicating a reduction in price fluctuations caused by tariffs [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel markets, including prices, trading volumes, inventories, production, and capacity utilization rates, with data sources mainly from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [5][8][14][21][23][28][29][36][42][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, but note short - term market cooling signs [2] - For treasury bond futures, with the upward shift in risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for the medium and long term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 2nd, the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.14% to 12553.84 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 2.85% to 2872.22 points, and the STAR 50 Index declined 2.13% to 1328.28 points. Market turnover was 29,124 billion yuan, an increase of 1,348 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, banks (+1.95%), public utilities (+0.99%), and household appliances (+0.91%) led the gains, while communication (-5.73%), computer (-4.06%), and electronics (-3.85%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1,257, 113, and 4,055 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of - 720, - 477, 254, and 943 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 588, - 244, +245, and +587 billion yuan [2] - For the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH, the basis was 111.68, 110.49, 14.85, and 1.68 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.63%, - 14.17%, - 2.95%, and - 0.5% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 18%, 8%, 29%, and 39% respectively [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 2nd, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.375, up 1.19 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.61, up 0.96 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.741, up 0.84 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.129, up 3.43 bps [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.007, and an IRR of 1.46%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.069, and an IRR of 1.2%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.082, and an IRR of 1.15%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.185, and an IRR of 0.95% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 2,557 billion yuan and withdrew 4,058 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,501 billion yuan [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10] - Based on the comparison of medium - term data of each module with the same period in the past five years, positive scores indicate an improvement in sentiment, negative scores indicate a weakening in sentiment, and zero scores indicate little change in sentiment [13]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a slight pullback with significant declines in technology stocks, indicating a rotation between high and low-performing sectors [1][4]. Market Outlook - Increased volatility is expected in early September, but it will not affect the mid-term market trend. After a continuous rise in August, the market is facing some divergence as it approaches the 3900-point mark, leading to potential profit-taking and a need for re-evaluation of leading sectors [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its previous peak of 3731 points from 2021, while other major indices like CSI 300 and ChiNext still have room for catch-up [2]. Hot Sectors - In September, the technology sector may see internal differentiation, with low-performing sectors like robotics, new energy, and military potentially experiencing a rebound. Traditional industries such as finance and consumer goods also have opportunities for recovery [3]. - Key trends to watch include: 1. The ongoing trend of robot localization and integration into daily life, with potential catalysts from updates in Tesla's humanoid robot [3]. 2. The push for semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. 3. Expectations of order recovery in the military sector by 2025, with signs of bottoming out in mid-term performance [3]. 4. The innovative drug sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025 after several years of adjustment [3]. 5. The banking sector is seeing a rebound in mid-term performance after initial impacts from loan rate re-pricing, attracting long-term institutional investors due to appealing dividend yields [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising popularity of silver and gold as asset allocation options for ordinary people amid global inflation pressures, driven by supply-demand imbalances, safe-haven demand, and industrial revolution benefits [2][3][4][5][6]. Group 2 - The global silver market has experienced a continuous supply-demand imbalance for five years, with a projected shortfall of 5,000 tons in 2024 and 3,660 tons in 2025, driven by weak mining output and surging demand from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries [3]. - Increased geopolitical tensions and trade frictions have led to a surge in safe-haven investments, with silver becoming a new target for funds due to its lower price and greater elasticity compared to gold [4]. - The gold-silver ratio reached as high as 105:1, prompting market participants to view silver as undervalued, leading to increased investments in silver to align its price closer to gold [5]. - Gold is viewed as a "safe-haven" asset due to its monetary properties and stability, with central banks globally purchasing record amounts of gold, reinforcing its long-term value [6]. - Silver's industrial properties make it more sensitive to economic recovery, with demand driven by factors such as accelerated photovoltaic installations and manufacturing PMI rebounds, allowing it to hedge against inflation while capturing growth opportunities [8]. Group 3 - Data comparisons show that in March 2025, when U.S. CPI exceeded expectations, gold rose by 1.8% while silver only increased by 0.7%, indicating gold's dominant safe-haven role; conversely, in June, when manufacturing PMI improved, silver rose by 1.1% while gold only increased by 0.3%, highlighting silver's industrial strength [10]. - Recommendations for ordinary investors include diversifying their portfolios with a mix of gold and silver based on risk preferences, such as conservative (70% gold, 30% silver) or balanced (50% gold, 50% silver) allocations [10]. - Suggested investment tools include physical assets like gold and silver bars, ETFs for liquidity, and account trading for convenience, while cautioning against common pitfalls such as chasing high prices, ignoring storage costs, and making single-asset bets [10].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC maintains a "risk-on" stance for the last four months of 2025, recommending an overweight position in high-yield bonds and equities, particularly favoring U.S. stocks [1] Economic Recovery - The U.S. economy shows clear signs of accelerated recovery, with Q2 GDP revised to an annualized growth rate of 3.3%, supported mainly by consumer spending [2] - High-frequency macro and micro data continue to improve, contrasting with market expectations, which supports HSBC's risk-on stance [2] - However, inflation pressures are a concern, with core PCE inflation rising to 2.9% in July, the highest since February [2] Hawkish Risks - Despite potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, market expectations for future policy are considered overly dovish, with projections indicating about 5.5 rate cuts by December 2026 [3] - If hawkish risks materialize, it may not negatively impact risk assets, as strong economic data could be interpreted positively by the market [3] Positive Outlook on Risk Assets - HSBC remains positive on high-yield bonds and equities, particularly U.S. stocks, citing factors such as the widespread application of AI and signs of economic recovery supporting sensitive sectors [4] - The S&P 500 index is expected to see further gains, while small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) are currently viewed as less attractive [4] Corporate Earnings and AI Impact - Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 exceeded expectations, with an 81% beat rate and a year-over-year growth rate of 11.9%, marking three consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [5] - AI has significantly impacted corporate performance, with 44 S&P 500 companies achieving a 1.5% reduction in operating costs and a 24% increase in efficiency through AI applications [5] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Current market sentiment shows a moderate sell signal, but the likelihood of a significant short-term pullback is low due to a lack of fundamental triggers [6] - Risk asset inflows are slowly recovering, which is expected to support risk assets [6]

Economic Overview - The PMI data for August indicates that despite a significant decline in July, the economic downturn is stabilizing, with industrial prices expected to rise, halting the decline in nominal growth[2] - In July, industrial enterprise profits fell by 1.5% year-on-year, but this was an improvement of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of profit growth[4] - The service sector PMI for August rose to 50.5, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, reaching a new high for the year, indicating recovery in consumer spending during the summer[7] Market Trends - The equity market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating above 3800 points, driven by increased trading volume and a shift from safe assets to risk assets[9] - The current regulatory environment remains friendly, with no significant changes expected that could disrupt the ongoing bull market, which is characterized by a gradual upward trend in asset prices[9] - The expansion of active credit creation and the transition of retail and institutional investors towards risk assets are positively impacting the equity market[12] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions and unexpected policy changes that could affect market stability[3] - The upcoming economic data for August will be crucial in confirming the economic position, especially after significant declines in credit and investment indicators in July[8] - The reliance on government bond issuance for social financing may face challenges as the issuance is expected to taper off in the third quarter, impacting credit expansion and asset prices[10]

总的来看，A股整体营收增速由负转正，归母净利润保持正增长，显示经济复苏基础逐步稳固。 2025年上半年，我国经济运行延续稳中向好态势，国内生产总值66.05万亿元，同比增长5.3%。内需贡 献率近七成，居民收入保持增长。在这样的宏观背景下，A股市场的表现同样引人注目，上市公司作为 经济运行的微观主体，其业绩表现成为宏观向好的有力印证。截至8月31日，全市场5432家上市公司披 露半年报，大部分企业交出了一份可圈可点的中期答卷，展现出上市公司稳健运营的态势。从此番公布 的半年报中，可发现多个行业板块亮点频现：按照二级行业分类来看，钢铁、软件服务、建材、传媒、 半导体等行业净利增速靠前；"以旧换新"政策持续显效发力，带动家电、汽车、消费电子等行业净利增 长；文旅、新消费等行业景气度持续攀升；在战略性新兴产业、高技术产业方面，科技叙事主线愈发鲜 明，新质生产力加速成长，企业研发投入强度稳步上升。 ...

Group 1 - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all showed recovery in August, indicating that the Chinese economy maintains overall expansion despite complex external conditions [1] - Manufacturing PMI slightly increased, with production index remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, reflecting a continuous acceleration in manufacturing activities [1] - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.5%, the highest level this year, indicating a significant recovery in service sector sentiment, driven by increased consumer activity during the summer [2] Group 2 - The high-tech manufacturing PMI and equipment manufacturing PMI were reported at 51.9% and 50.5% respectively, significantly above the overall level, showcasing the potential of new growth drivers in the economy [3] - The recovery in manufacturing and service sectors is supported by effective policy measures, including tax incentives and R&D expense deductions, creating a favorable environment for high-tech manufacturing [3] - The construction sector's business activity index declined, reflecting both seasonal factors and the slow recovery in related industries such as real estate [3] Group 3 - Macro policies need to focus on precision and continuity to sustain economic stability, with an emphasis on tax reductions and financing support for small and medium-sized enterprises [4] - The release of the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Urban Development" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council aims to activate existing resources and support the real estate sector, promoting a positive interaction between urban development and economic transformation [4]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, driven largely by domestic demand contributing nearly 70% [4][5] - The A-share market reflects this positive macroeconomic backdrop, with 5,432 listed companies reporting solid mid-year results, indicating robust operational performance [5][9] Company Performance - Total revenue for all listed companies in the first half of 2025 was 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16%, while net profit reached 3 trillion yuan, growing by 2.54% [9][10] - Nearly 60% of companies reported revenue growth, and over 75% achieved profitability, with 2,475 companies showing positive net profit growth [9][10] Industry Highlights - Key industries such as steel, software services, building materials, media, and semiconductors exhibited significant net profit growth, with steel leading at 263.77% [8][9] - The "trade-in" policy has positively impacted sectors like home appliances, automobiles, and consumer electronics, with net profit growth exceeding 10% in these areas [10][13] Emerging Trends - New consumption trends are emerging, particularly in the tourism and pet economy sectors, with net profit growth exceeding 50% in related industries [11][13] - The government’s policies to stimulate consumption are yielding results, with the travel sector experiencing rapid growth due to improved visa policies [13] R&D Investment - A-share companies invested 745.69 billion yuan in R&D in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [14][19] - The R&D intensity across various sectors is increasing, with the biopharmaceutical industry showing a remarkable R&D intensity of 13.21% [16][19]

Group 1 - Eurozone manufacturing activity expanded for the first time since mid-2022, with the PMI rising from 49.8 in July to 50.7 in August, surpassing the 50.0 threshold [1] - Factory output growth reached its fastest level since March 2022, while new orders increased at the fastest pace in nearly three and a half years [1] - The chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank noted that the increase in domestic orders is offsetting the impact of weaker overseas demand, suggesting that enhancing domestic demand may be the best response to U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2 - France's manufacturing sector ended a two-and-a-half-year slump, with the PMI rising from 48.2 in July to 50.4 in August, marking the first time it has surpassed 50 since January 2023 [2] - Germany's manufacturing index rose to 49.8, the highest level in 38 months, indicating a recovery in economic activity despite a 0.3% contraction in the previous quarter due to reduced demand from the U.S. [2] - Eurozone manufacturers expressed optimism about the future, although the confidence index remained stable compared to July [2] Group 3 - Despite a slight increase in input costs, manufacturers experienced a slight decrease in selling prices [3] - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% in July and is expected to hold steady this month, with discussions on potential rate cuts likely in the fall [3]