金融研究 2026年1月27日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：1 月 26 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.09%，报收 4132.61 点；深成 指下跌 0.85%，报收 14316.64 点；创业板指下跌 0.91%，报收 3319.15 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.35%， 报收 1532.8 点。市场成交 32,806 亿元，较前日增加 1,625 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+4.57%)， 石油石化(+3.18%)，煤炭(+2.07%)涨幅居前；国防军工(-4.47%)，汽车(-2.31%)，社会服务(-2.3%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,603/98/3,768。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-497、-260、320、437 亿元，分别变动-617、-99、+468、 +247 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 76.23、36.69、-12.44 与-8.61 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-6.7%、-3.17%、1.94%与 2.08%，三年 ...

国内经济复苏动能不足则成为加元明显短板，基本面疲软持续限制其升值空间。2025年12月加拿大失业 率升至6.8%，创2021年非疫情时期新高，就业岗位结构失衡；居民消费信心指数连续三月下滑，企业 投资意愿受外部不确定性压制，央行预测2026年该国GDP增速仅1.1%。加拿大经济高度依赖对美出 口，外部需求端的波动直接冲击其出口产业与经济韧性，进一步制约加元表现。 美元兑加元日线级别仍处于前期高点1.3927以来的回落趋势，当前汇价重回1.3700下方并试探低位，上 方1.3800附近形成明显水平阻力区，无强宏观催化剂难以有效突破。下方需重点关注1.3641前低支撑 位，汇价已贴近该区域运行，继续下探空间收窄。 技术指标显示多空博弈进入胶着阶段，动能类指标未触发明确反转信号，呈现"跌不动但弹不高"的特 征，即便短期测试更低点，也难现持续性暴跌，整体震荡格局明确。 加元后续走势将由三大核心变量主导，市场需等待明确信号打破当前平衡：一是加拿大央行利率决议的 措辞导向，偏鸽或偏谨慎的表述将直接影响利率预期与加元吸引力；二是油价能否在61.10美元一线保 持韧性，地缘风险降温或供应过剩预期升温均可能削弱加元支撑；三是美 ...

当日，国际黄金价格再创历史新高，纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格和伦敦现货黄金价格盘中双双突破每 盎司5100美元关口。金价维持在历史高位，为兰特提供重要支撑。 中新社约翰内斯堡1月26日电 (记者 孙翔)南非兰特26日走强，一度报1美元对15.9982兰特，为2022年6月 以来的最强水平。 南非储备银行将于1月29日召开2026年首次货币政策会议。南非央行曾于去年11月将基准利率下调25个 基点至6.75%。分析机构"ETM"在一份报告中指出，兰特走强将使央行在是否尽早降息的问题上更谨 慎，目前通胀仍然偏高。(完) 作为风险敏感型货币，兰特往往与全球风险偏好和大宗商品价格同步波动。数据显示，过去一年兰特对 美元累计上涨约15.3%。 债券市场方面，南非2035年期基准国债收益率下跌7.5个基点至8.07%。 世界银行近日对南非经济投下"谨慎的信任票"，认为南非经济已重新恢复增长，但同时警告复苏基础仍 较为脆弱。其最新发布的《全球经济展望》报告指，南非经济2025年预计增长1.3%，主要得益于电力 供应更加稳定、农业迎来丰收以及企业信心逐步改善。 南非国内多项经济数据近期亦呈现向好态势。南非总统拉马福萨26日在国 ...

特朗普一口气翻脸，居然宣布一滴委内瑞拉的石油都不会卖给中国。这是决心要切断中国的能源命脉吗？连法国总统马克龙也加入其中，要求中国向欧洲交 钱交技术，真的是在逼我们做出回应吗？全球局势变化太快，反而让我们更应该坚持自己的立场，才能应对所有挑战。特朗普的言论，果然不能信。曾几何 时，当三角洲部队绑架了马杜罗之后，特朗普曾豪言，美国的石油公司将接管委内瑞拉的石油产业，并向全球客户出售其中的石油，当然也包括中国。但现 在不到半个月，美国的态度却来了个180度的大转弯，宣称无论如何，中国再也买不到委内瑞拉的一滴石油了。 从国土面积上来说，委内瑞拉甚至比乌克兰还要大，现如今，美国军队显然没有能力进行一场全面的地面入侵。在美国的石油企业拒绝合作的情况下，即使 委内瑞拉政府选择妥协，美国也只能眼睁睁地看着石油资源无人可用，心里充满了无奈。这也暴露出如今美国在对华战略上的严重认知偏差。去年美国在稀 土问题上被中国卡了脖子后，美国急于在舆论上重新翻盘，因此每当美国占到一些微小的便宜，就迫不及待地宣扬中国输了，美国赢了，尽管这种胜利并不 存在。美国的这种认知失误，也在欧洲国家中有所体现。法国总统马克龙近期的发言，更让人摸不着头脑， ...

1月26日，中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）发布的2025年第四季度宏观政策报告认为，2026年逆周期政策 力度是关键。财政政策需保持必要的支出力度。货币政策是重中之重，是激活经济内生增长动力的关键 依托。在力度充分的逆周期政策支持下，中国经济运行有望继续边际改善。 2025年，我国宏观经济出现诸多经济复苏的早期阶段特征：股票市场、人民币汇率、社融增速、企业存 款等金融指标有明显提升，企业盈利止住连续多年的下行趋势，消费、劳动力市场总体运行平稳。 上月召开的中央经济工作会议确定，2026年经济工作将抓好8项重点任务。其中，第一条就是"坚持内需 主导，建设强大国内市场。" 经济复苏的支撑力量主要来自财政、外需和前期的价格调整。CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济 与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，经济复苏仍缺乏可持续的内生动力。这背后的主要原因是，相对于融资 成本而言，企业盈利预期较低，企业投资算不过来账；相对于租房而言，购买和持有住房的成本较高， 买房也算不过来账。 "2026年是非常关键的一年。经济已经初步具备复苏的势头，政策再往前迈一步就能让经济持续复 苏。"他建议，宽松货币政策要通过"改变预期"和"让微观主体 ...

金融研究 2026年1月26日 星期一 金融期货早班车 风险提示：外生宏观冲击、财政扩张进度不及预期、其他系统性冲击。 市场表现：1 月 23 日，利率债略反弹，活跃合约中，TS 上涨 0.01%，TF 上涨 0.04%，T 上涨 0.03%， TL 上涨 0.07%。 现券：目前活跃合约为 2603 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250017.IB，收益率变动-0.5bps，对应 净基差 0.008，IRR1.44%；5 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 2500801.IB，收益率变动-0.5bps，对应净基差 国债期货 -0.016，IRR1.6%；10 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250018.IB，收益率变动-1.2bps，对应净基差 0.012， IRR1.41%；30 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 210005.IB，收益率变动-1bps，对应净基差 0.086，IRR1.04%。 资金面：公开市场操作方面，央行货币投放 1,250 亿元，货币回笼 867 亿元，净投放 383 亿元。 交易策略：中长线，风偏上行叠加经济复苏预期，建议 T、TL 逢高套保。 风险提示：货币政策宽松超预期，经济复苏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market since 2026 is the result of the joint action of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the improvement of economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up the prices of commodities and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (IF当月, IF下月, IF下季, IF隔季) were 4722.00, 4719.40, 4683.00, 4626.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4704.00, 4709.20, 4687.60, 4647.00. The price changes were - 16.20, - 7.20, 6.80, 23.60, and the corresponding price change rates of the CSI 300 were - 0.34, - 0.15, 0.15, 0.51. The trading volumes were 28815.00, 84474.00, 20706.00, 6487.00, and the positions were 42005.00, 173887.00, 72508.00, 11330.00. The changes in positions were 3960.00, - 417.00, 4100.00, 2530.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts (IH当月, IH下月, IH下季, IH隔季) were 3057.00, 3061.20, 3057.60, 3025.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 3032.40, 3037.80, 3036.00, 3006.00. The price changes were - 22.20, - 20.20, - 19.60, - 15.60, and the corresponding price change rates of the SSE 50 were - 0.73, - 0.66, - 0.64, - 0.52. The trading volumes were 11094.00, 38693.00, 8525.00, 3725.00, and the positions were 16044.00, 63802.00, 23537.00, 5388.00. The changes in positions were 2026.00, 4793.00, 2711.00, 1709.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts (IC当月, IC下月, IC下季, IC隔季) were 8404.00, 8400.00, 8309.60, 8195.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 8656.20, 8658.20, 8578.80, 8491.00. The price changes were 277.00, 281.20, 297.00, 320.60, and the corresponding price change rates of the CSI 500 were 3.31, 3.36, 3.59, 3.92. The trading volumes were 29259.00, 103171.00, 32896.00, 10967.00, and the positions were 51809.00, 179892.00, 88549.00, 20975.00. The changes in positions were - 995.00, 5740.00, 3581.00, 3280.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts (IM当月, IM下月, IM下季, IM隔季) were 8318.00, 8292.60, 8119.20, 7952.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 8531.80, 8516.60, 8366.20, 8219.00. The price changes were 239.80, 252.80, 275.60, 295.00, and the corresponding price change rates of the CSI 1000 were 2.89, 3.06, 3.41, 3.72. The trading volumes were 39087.00, 128628.00, 39676.00, 15595.00, and the positions were 66131.00, 195577.00, 107740.00, 26555.00. The changes in positions were 3449.00, 8990.00, 4814.00, 6473.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF下月 - IF当月, IH下月 - IH当月, IC下月 - IC当月, IM下月 - IM当月 were 5.20, 5.40, 2.00, - 15.20 respectively, and the previous values were - 2.60, 4.20, - 4.00, - 25.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4702.50, with a trading volume of 314.64 billion lots and a total trading amount of 7556.18 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4723.71, with a trading volume of 274.20 billion lots and a total trading amount of 6902.35 billion yuan. The price change rate was - 0.45 [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3032.19, with a trading volume of 69.02 billion lots and a total trading amount of 2004.56 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3053.13, with a trading volume of 62.92 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1934.11 billion yuan. The price change rate was - 0.69 [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 8590.17, with a trading volume of 319.69 billion lots and a total trading amount of 6394.21 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8387.60, with a trading volume of 268.81 billion lots and a total trading amount of 5461.38 billion yuan. The price change rate was 2.42 [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 8470.74, with a trading volume of 393.04 billion lots and a total trading amount of 6819.48 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8309.35, with a trading volume of 328.56 billion lots and a total trading amount of 5718.06 billion yuan. The price change rate was 1.94 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: The price change rates of different industries in the CSI 300 industry index were as follows: energy - 1.82%, raw materials 0.99%, industry 0.72%, optional consumption - 0.70%, major consumption - 0.23%, medical and health 0.10%, real estate and finance - 0.89%, information technology - 0.70%, telecommunications business - 3.13%, public utilities - 0.91 [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and CSI 300**: The previous values of IF当月 - CSI 300, IF下月 - CSI 300, IF下季 - CSI 300, IF隔季 - CSI 300 were 1.50, 6.70, - 14.90, - 55.50 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 1.71, - 4.31, - 40.71, - 97.71 [1] - **IH Contracts and SSE 50**: The previous values of IH当月 - SSE 50, IH下月 - SSE 50, IH下季 - SSE 50, IH隔季 - SSE 50 were 0.21, 5.61, 3.81, - 26.19 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 3.87, 8.07, 4.47, - 27.33 [1] - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The previous values of IC当月 - CSI 500, IC下月 - CSI 500, IC下季 - CSI 500, IC隔季 - CSI 500 were 66.03, 68.03, - 11.37, - 99.17 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 16.41, 12.41, - 78.00, - 192.40 [1] - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The previous values of IM当月 - CSI 1000, IM下月 - CSI 1000, IM下季 - CSI 1000, IM隔季 - CSI 1000 were 61.06, 45.86, - 104.54, - 251.74 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 8.65, - 16.75, - 190.15, - 357.35 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4136.16, 14439.66, 8883.33, 3349.50 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 4122.58, 14327.05, 8822.34, 3328.65. The price change rates were 0.33%, 0.79%, 0.69%, 0.63% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26749.51, 53846.87, 6915.61, 24900.71 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 26629.96, 53688.89, 6913.35, 24856.47. The price change rates were 0.45%, 0.29%, 0.03%, 0.18% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The "Several Measures of Beijing Municipality on Promoting the Development and Utilization of Commercial Satellite Remote - Sensing Data Resources (2026 - 2030)" encourages capable enterprises to conduct mergers and acquisitions of upstream and downstream satellite data enterprises, integrate and improve the ground station network and data application service industrial chain, and build leading enterprises with global competitiveness. It also supports enterprises in planning and building commercial satellite constellations with differentiated advantages, clear commercial value, and clear application prospects [2] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics' monitoring of the market prices of 50 important production materials in 9 major categories in the national circulation field, from mid - January to early January 2026, the prices of 29 products increased, 13 decreased, and 8 remained unchanged. The price of live pigs (external ternary) increased by 0.4 yuan/kg, a 3.2% increase [2] - During the Spring Festival, Sichuan Province will hold more than 2400 cultural, tourism, business, and sports activities and launch ten major boutique activities. The province's consumption discounts will exceed 40 million yuan, including 20 million yuan in cultural and tourism consumption vouchers, 16 million yuan in movie consumption vouchers, and 100,000 free scenic - spot tickets [2] - As of now, 8 banks in the A - share market have successively disclosed their 2025 performance reports, and all of these institutions achieved positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders. The performance reports have three notable features: the asset scales of the 8 listed banks all expanded steadily, with small and medium - sized banks leading in growth; the non - performing loan ratio remained favorable, and no bank had an obvious rebound in the non - performing ratio; most banks increased their provision for bad debts, but the provision coverage ratio was still declining [2] - After the disclosure of the Q4 2025 fund reports, the latest positions of public FOFs, the "professional buyers", emerged. In Q4 last year, FOFs continued to favor low - risk products, and short - term financing ETFs became their top - held variety. Amid the record - high international gold prices, FOFs generally reduced their holdings of gold ETFs and instead significantly increased their holdings of gold - stock ETFs, showing a unique "gold - hunting" strategy [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The 2026 Beijing International Commercial Space Exhibition was held from January 23rd to 25th, and a number of star products and solutions representing the forefront of China's commercial space technology were on display. In the field of launch vehicles, LandSpace Technology exhibited models of the improved Zhuque - 2 liquid - oxygen methane launch vehicle and the reusable Zhuque - 3 launch vehicle [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Healthy and Sustainable Development of Inter - city Railways", proposing to give priority to supporting the planning and construction of inter - city railways in key urban agglomerations with active economies and high population density, such as the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area, and the Chengdu - Chongqing economic circle. It is strictly prohibited to build high - speed railways and urban rail transit projects in the name of inter - city railways. Projects with illegal debt - raising or without clear sources of debt repayment and operation subsidy funds will not be approved. Debt - high - risk regions are not allowed to increase local government debt for new inter - city railway projects [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm for "traveling south to avoid the cold" and duty - free shopping on Hainan Island continues to heat up, and ticket bookings have entered a peak period. Data from multiple online travel platforms show that Haikou and Sanya are among the top domestic destinations. Hainan Airport's passenger throughput during the 2026 Spring Festival travel season is expected to reach 8.175 million person - times, setting a new record for the same period [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - U.S. stocks were mixed. In the previous trading day, stock indexes continued to diverge, with the power equipment sector leading the gains and the communication sector leading the losses. The market turnover was 3.12 trillion yuan. In terms of funds, on January 22nd, the margin trading balance increased by 3.972 billion yuan to 2.707543 trillion yuan [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a recovery after regulatory easing signals, with significant fluctuations in major indices, particularly the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300, which faced continuous declines [1][2] - Despite large outflows from major ETFs, the market showed resilience with positive developments in smaller-cap indices and sectors, indicating a broadening market participation [1][2] Market Performance - The top 10 broad-based index ETFs saw a total net outflow of 329.6 billion yuan last week, with the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF alone experiencing a net outflow of 72.4 billion yuan [1] - Cumulatively, these ETFs have seen over 470 billion yuan in outflows, yet the overall market did not weaken, with the National Securities 2000 Index and micro-cap indices reaching new highs [1] Sector Dynamics - Key sectors such as commercial aerospace, solar energy, AI applications, and pharmaceuticals showed strong performance, with the solar sector experiencing a surge in stock limits [1] - The market's internal structure is shifting, with small-cap stocks and thematic investments gaining strength despite pressure on major indices, indicating a potential for structural opportunities [2] Market Sentiment - The current market is at a critical technical and psychological juncture, with major indices approaching previous high points, leading to expected volatility [2] - Investor risk appetite appears to remain strong, with a focus on structural opportunities rather than solely relying on large-cap stocks [2][3] Future Outlook - The market faces a crucial decision point, where upward movement requires large-cap stocks to cease their downward pressure and align with thematic stocks to drive indices higher [2] - A downward adjustment may occur if the pressure from previous highs is too significant, necessitating a period of consolidation and turnover [2]

AI基金长盛国企改革混合（001239）披露2025年四季报，第四季度基金利润4314.58万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0504元。报告期内，基金净值增长 率为8.27%，截至四季度末，基金规模为5.46亿元。 该基金属于灵活配置型基金。截至1月21日，单位净值为0.686元。基金经理是代毅，目前管理的2只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至1月21日，长盛城镇 化主题混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达83.64%；长盛国企改革混合最低，为70.22%。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，本基金配置上四季度偏向科技成长的国有企业，强调国有资本属性、跟踪产业趋势及变化的投资逻辑，坚持最大的结构性机会 还是人工智能相关的各个行业及公司，坚定持有人工智能算力相关的PCB、光模块、芯片制造及设备等国企公司，并配置了部分有色金属、机器人相关标 的，增加了经济复苏下具有"通胀"逻辑的国有企业配置。 截至1月21日，长盛国企改革混合近三个月复权单位净值增长率为14.72%，位于同类可比基金262/1286；近半年复权单位净值增长率为55.56%，位于同类可 比基金107/1286；近一年复权单位净值增长率为70.22%，位于 ...

新西兰联储主席布雷曼：核心通胀似乎仍处于目标区间内。在当前环境下将对通胀保持高度警惕。正在 看到经济复苏迹象，但部分信号仍然偏弱。将确保通胀回到目标区间的中点。由于仍存在闲置产能且工 资增长温和，达到2%的通胀目标中点仍具备有利条件。签署支持美联储主席的声明并非旨在代表新西 兰政府的外交政策。 ...