Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The global trade friction has entered a tough - on - tough stage after Trump announced the reciprocal tariff policy on April 2nd. Market panic has soared to a new high since 2020, and the precious metals market is in a dual - game situation of safe - haven demand and liquidity pressure. The market volatility is expected to remain high in the near future, and attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between countries and the US and the performance of US economic data [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: During the day, the outer - market precious metals rose slightly. London gold temporarily reclaimed the $3000 mark and was trading around $3004, while London silver was fluctuating around the $30 mark and was trading around $30.1. Affected by the outer - market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.37% at 719.22 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.26% at 7683 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Dollar index: The dollar index fluctuated sideways and was trading around 103.1 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds gave back part of yesterday's gains and was trading around 4.14% [4]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to weaken and was trading around 7.336 [5]. Important Information - Trump administration: On the 7th, Trump said he would not suspend reciprocal tariff measures and rejected the EU's proposed mutual tariff exemption policy; Trump's team considered an export tax credit policy; seven Republican senators supported a bill to limit Trump's tariff power; the White House denied the rumor of suspending tariffs for 90 days; US Treasury Secretary said it was unlikely to reach a trade agreement with any country before April 9th, and nearly 70 countries were seeking negotiations; the US plans to increase the tariff on Canadian timber from 14.4% to 34.45% [6]. - Other countries' tariff measures: The EU proposed to impose a 25% tariff on some US products starting from April 15th in two steps, and the second part will start on May 15th; the Japanese Prime Minister said Japan would not retaliate against the US [6]. - Fed's view: Fed Governor Kugler said ensuring inflation does not rise is a priority [7]. - Fed's observation: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 43%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 20.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 49.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut is 29.9% [8][10]. Logical Analysis The reciprocal tariff policy has led to market concerns about counter - measures from other countries, and the market is trading the recession expectation again. The precious metals market is affected by both the liquidity pressure of other markets and its own safe - haven property, with certain support below. High market volatility is expected to continue [11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Try to go long on dips and pay attention to the effectiveness of the support near the previous low [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Collar call option strategy [14]. Data Reference - Multiple data charts are provided, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, spot - futures trends, domestic - foreign spreads, ETF holdings, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [16][19][21] etc.

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250408 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 海外方面，在对等关税落地生效前，关税博弈牵动全球市场。特朗普称不会暂停对等关 税措施，拒绝欧盟提议的互免关税政策，但对谈判持开放态度；若中国不取消上周对美国产 品加征的 34%关税，威胁对华再额外加征 50%关税。美盘市场波动加剧、避险交易暂时缓 和，美元指数回升至 103.5，10Y 美债利率从 3.87%回升至 4.2%，纳指震荡收涨，金价下跌 1.8%、伦铜创下 16 个月新低、油价创下近 4 年新低。 国内方面，A 股在假期贸易冲突升级、全球衰退预期下补跌，上证指数跌破 3100 关口 （-7.3%），中证 1000、创业板指、北证 50 跌幅分别为 11.4%、12.5%、18%，两市成交额 回升至 1.6 万亿，行业上仅在中国出口反制下的农业板块收涨。特朗普威胁对华再加征 50% 关税，在幅度上对贸易影响边际减弱，但意味着中美贸易脱钩缓和余地在骤降，隔夜美股止 跌但中概股跌幅调整超 5%，短期国内风险 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 农产品 | ★★★★ | 农产品：此次美国对全球加征对等关税是历史性的大事件;加征幅度超预期;各国大概率会不同 程度反制，不确定性极高。由于这一次是对全球加征关税，因此不能完全用 2018 年的思路 去看待。农产品方面,美国大豆、玉米和棉花出口占全球出口份额比较高，大豆 27%、玉米 33%、棉花 26%，美国出口下降预期已经推高巴西现货升水，对销区的成本上升的影响较大， 且大概率是持续性的影响。大豆方面，虽然榨利较高，但是下游仍有养殖利润，承接力度较 强，囤库意愿较高。风险:全球高关税带来的经济衰退预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 短线或继续大跌，长线关注超跌反弹机会 观点分享： 外盘油价较上周五累计暴跌近 14%，内盘跌停概率较大。短期市场极度恐慌，其中 Brent 或继续交易衰退考验 55 美元/桶，中长期关注企稳筑底后的多配机会。理由：第一， 短期看，市场交易主要大国、经济体之间关税互征引发的通缩，恐慌情绪 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 2.86% during the week of March 31 to April 4, ranking it low among all primary industries. Industrial metals saw a significant drop of 4.36%, driven by heightened concerns over the U.S. and global economic downturn due to unexpected tariff policies [1][15] - The report highlights that the recent U.S. tariff policies have significantly increased market risk aversion, leading to a notable retreat in industrial metal prices. However, the macroeconomic framework suggests a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term [4][47] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.86%, underperforming the index by 2.59 percentage points. Among sub-sectors, the industrial metals segment dropped by 4.36% [15][1] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,780 per ton, down 10.36% week-on-week. SHFE copper was at 78,860 CNY per ton, down 3.31%. The supply side remains constrained, while demand is affected by high prices [2][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,379 per ton, down 6.63%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 1.90%. Social inventory decreased, indicating a faster destocking rate [3][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,657 per ton, down 7%, and SHFE zinc at 23,155 CNY per ton, down 3.94%. Both LME and SHFE inventories decreased [42] - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,378 per ton, down 2.32%, while SHFE tin was at 287,790 CNY per ton, up 2.27%. Inventory changes were mixed [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of April 4, COMEX gold closed at $3,056.10 per ounce, down 1.99%, while SHFE gold was at 739.04 CNY per gram, up 4.05%. The recent U.S. tariff policies have heightened market risk aversion, boosting gold's safe-haven appeal [4][45][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a significant decline of 2.86% during the week of March 31 to April 4, ranking it low among all primary industries [15] - Industrial metals prices have sharply retreated due to heightened market concerns over the U.S. and global economic downturn following unexpected tariff policies [1][25] - The report expresses a bullish outlook on gold in the medium to long term, despite short-term volatility due to liquidity shocks [4][47] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.86%, underperforming the index by 2.59 percentage points [15] - Among sub-sectors, the industrial metals segment saw a notable drop of 4.36%, while the precious metals sector decreased by 1.24% [15] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,780 per ton, down 10.36% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at 78,860 CNY per ton, down 3.31% [2][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,379 per ton, down 6.63%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 1.90% [3][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,657 per ton, down 7%, and SHFE zinc at 23,155 CNY per ton, down 3.94% [42] - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,378 per ton, down 2.32%, while SHFE tin was at 287,790 CNY per ton, up 2.27% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,056.10 per ounce, down 1.99%, while SHFE gold was at 739.04 CNY per gram, up 4.05% [45][48] - The report highlights that the U.S. effective tariff rate has surged to 22.5%, the highest since 1909, intensifying market fears regarding economic downturns and boosting gold's safe-haven appeal [47]

Employment Data - In March 2025, the U.S. added 228,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 135,000 and the previous value of 117,000 (revised from 151,000) [12] - The unemployment rate in March 2025 rose to 4.2%, higher than both the expected and previous rate of 4.1% [12] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.9% and the previous 4.0% [12] Sector Performance - Retail and healthcare sectors saw strong job growth, with retail adding 24,000 jobs and healthcare adding 78,000 jobs in March 2025 [23] - The leisure and hospitality sector also rebounded, adding 43,000 jobs, a significant improvement from the previous month's loss of 17,000 jobs [24] Economic Outlook - Despite the strong non-farm data, concerns about economic recession due to tariffs have led the market to anticipate four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [19] - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 14 basis points to 4.06%, further declining to around 4.0% after the non-farm data release [19] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5% in March 2025, indicating a slight rise in employment willingness among younger demographics [27] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, decreased to 7.9% from 8.0% in February, suggesting resilience in the part-time job market [33]

首席点评： 对等关税落地，利空暂时兑现 据央视报道，美国白宫发表声明称，特朗普将对所有国家征收10%的"基准关税"，该关税将 于美国东部时间4月5日凌晨0时01分生效。此外，特朗普将对美国贸易逆差最大的国家征收 个性化的更高"对等关税"，该关税将于美国东部时间4月9日凌晨0时01分生效，所有其他国 家将继续遵守原有的10%关税基准。声明表示，一些商品将不受"对等关税"的约束，其中包 括已经受第232条关税约束的钢铝制品、汽车和汽车零部件、可能受未来第232条关税约束的 商品以及美国没有的能源和其他某些矿物。此外，金条、铜、药品、半导体和木材制品也不 受"对等关税"的约束。声明还表示，对于加拿大和墨西哥，符合《美墨加贸易协定》的商品 将继续获得豁免。 重点品种： 股指、原油、黄金 股指： 特朗普全面征收关税，美股盘后大幅下跌，A50跟跌，上一交易日股指涨跌分化，纺织服饰板块 领涨，国防军工板块领跌，全市成交额0.99万亿元，其中IH2504下跌0.18%，IF2504下跌0.08%，IC2504 上涨0.24%，IM2504上涨0.50%。资金方面，4月1日融资余额减少47.64亿元至19027.99亿元。4月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for multiple measures to boost consumption in response to the low retail sales growth in the US, which was only 0.2% in February, below the expected 0.6% [1] - The Chinese government is actively formulating policies such as childcare subsidies and labor wage adjustments to enhance consumer capacity [1] - The central bank will collaborate with financial regulators to develop specific documents to support consumption expansion [1] Group 2 - The shipping index for the European route showed a significant increase, with the June contract closing at 2204.1 points, up 3.41%, influenced by geopolitical tensions [2][37] - The SCFIS European line decreased by 3.9% to 1611.70 points, indicating a decline in the port settlement price during the specified period [2][37] - The April shipping rates are expected to stabilize, with potential for price adjustments depending on cargo volume recovery [2][37] Group 3 - The apple futures market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with cold storage inventory in major production areas at 524.06 million tons, a decrease of 25.16 million tons from the previous week [3][31] - The current market price for apples remains stable at 3.75 yuan per jin in key regions, with expectations for trading strategies focusing on buying low and selling high within a specified range [3][31] Group 4 - The domestic monetary policy is showing signs of easing, with the central bank emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [9] - The overall economic environment is being closely monitored, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts as economic data shows signs of weakening [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in the US stock market, termed "Black Monday," is attributed to weakening economic growth, concerns over Trump's tariff policies, and a shift in the AI monopoly landscape, with expectations of continued market volatility in the short term [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On March 10, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 890.01 points, closing at 41911.71, a drop of 2.08% - The S&P 500 index decreased by 155.64 points to 5614.56, down 2.70% - The Nasdaq Composite index dropped by 727.90 points to 17468.33, marking a 4.00% decline, the largest single-day drop in 29 months [1]. Sector Analysis - Major technology stocks experienced significant declines, with Tesla down over 15%, losing approximately $130 billion in market value, the largest single-day drop since September 2020 - Other tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, Google A, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Amazon also saw declines ranging from 2.36% to 5.07% [1]. Economic Commentary - Analysts suggest that the market downturn began on February 20, with the S&P 500 index down 8.7% and the Nasdaq down nearly 13% from mid-February highs - The decline is linked to recession fears and liquidity tightening, exacerbated by Trump's rhetoric and weakening economic data [3][4]. Policy Impact - Trump's comments regarding the economy being in a "transition period" and the potential for a "detox period" due to government spending cuts have contributed to market uncertainty [2][4]. - Analysts note that the current economic environment reflects a shift from "American exceptionalism" to a narrative of "atmospheric recession," although a true recession is not imminent [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict continued volatility in the US stock market due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategies - The overall high valuation levels of the market suggest that positive catalysts will be necessary to maintain these valuations in the medium to long term [5][6].

Economic Concerns - The Nasdaq has dropped over 12% in the past four weeks, indicating recession fears driven by liquidity tightening amid economic data weakness[2] - The Atlanta Fed has revised its Q1 2025 GDP forecast from +3.9% to -2.4%, primarily due to declines in consumer spending and net exports[2] Consumer and Investment Trends - January retail sales and real personal consumption growth in the U.S. were significantly below expectations, with credit card delinquencies reaching the highest level since 2012[3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI new orders index fell by 6.5% in February, indicating a downturn in business investment intentions[3] Policy Impacts - Trump's policies are seen as contributing to economic slowdown, with tariffs and immigration policies having significant negative effects on growth and inflation[3] - The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could increase inflation by 0.86 percentage points and reduce GDP by 0.1 percentage points by 2025[4] Market Liquidity and External Factors - Concerns over U.S. liquidity are rising, with the Fed continuing its balance sheet reduction and a significant amount of corporate debt maturing in Q2[6] - There is a noticeable shift in capital flows, with funds moving away from U.S. equities towards non-U.S. markets, particularly in China and Europe[7] Future Strategies - To counter recession fears, the Trump administration may focus on increasing private sector investment and expediting tax cuts to boost market confidence[8] - The potential for a recession could lead to a significant political shift in the midterm elections if not managed carefully[6]