美元信用遭遇多重撕裂，美国政府信用呈边际递减。 尽管市场对美国政府的偿债能力不断提出质疑，但似乎很难羁绊住美国国债进一步肿大的趋势，且在日 前完成了一笔220亿美元30年期国债发行后，美国联邦政府债务总额至今年6月底也升至36.22万亿美元 的历史最高纪录。 不仅如此，特朗普直接操盘的"大而美"法案推出了提高债务发行上限的顶层设计，甚至参议院正在酝酿 取消债务上限的法案，果如是，美国政府的借债融资将打破原有的边际约束而滑向肆意妄为的自由化状 态，而与此相伴随，已现恶化生态的美债信用风险也会被推到更加敏感的位置。 美元信用遭遇多重撕裂 "金本位"制度下，美元与黄金挂钩，获得了任何非美货币不可能具有的稳固信用基础；布雷顿森林体系 解散后，美元虽与黄金脱钩，但转身拥抱了石油，且这种绑定关系延续至今，美元的霸权地位由此确 立，其显赫价值也得到充分外溢，无论是在国际货币基金组织（IMF）特别提款权篮子中，还是在世界 所有国家外汇储备仓库中，抑或是国际贸易结算和全球外汇交易市场上，美元都占有绝对多的权重。 基于以上特殊的地位，美元已经超出了单一主权货币的性质范畴，被赋予了全球"信用本位"的职责。对 于各国央行而言，购买的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate policy is the core factor affecting subsequent US Treasury interest payments. Trump is strongly dissatisfied with the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, believing that a rate cut could save the US government up to $1 trillion in fiscal spending. With the resolution of the debt ceiling in the second half of the year, the overall issuance of US Treasuries will increase significantly. High policy rates will lead to a substantial rise in Treasury interest payments and an increase in the US deficit [2]. - Fed Governor Waller's unexpectedly dovish stance indicates that the Fed's high - interest - rate policy based on the US dollar's credit is not sustainable. The Fed is likely to cut policy rates in the second half of the year. Silver prices will perform strongly when the Fed's easing expectations increase, while gold will continue to be weak due to the weakening of geopolitical risk - aversion factors. It is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for the Fed's inflection point in its stance [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On June 23, 2025, Shanghai gold futures rose 0.24% to 782.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.02% to 8737.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.15% to $3390.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.01% to $36.02 per ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 98.88 [2]. 3.2 Gold Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was $3384.40 per ounce, down 0.06% from the previous day; trading volume increased by 57.91% to 277,300 lots; open interest rose 0.29% to 417,100 lots; inventory decreased by 0.56% to 1169 tons [6]. - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was $3368.25 per ounce, down 0.02% [6]. - **SHFE Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 778.58 yuan/gram, down 0.34%; trading volume decreased by 19.45% to 303,900 lots; open interest fell 0.77% to 420,600 lots; inventory remained unchanged at 18.17 tons; the amount of funds withdrawn was 1.10%, totaling 52.39 billion yuan [6]. - **Au(T + D)**: The closing price was 776.65 yuan/gram, down 0.10%; trading volume decreased by 5.47% to 37.97 tons; open interest fell 1.92% to 212 tons [6]. 3.3 Silver Data - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was $35.95 per ounce, down 2.20%; open interest rose 6.69% to 174,300 lots; inventory decreased by 0.05% to 15,411 tons [6]. - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was $36.13 per ounce, down 0.50% [6]. - **SHFE Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 8664 yuan/kilogram, down 1.76%; trading volume decreased by 10.79% to 1.0843 million lots; open interest fell 2.50% to 889,600 lots; inventory decreased by 1.03% to 1230.23 tons; the amount of funds withdrawn was 4.21%, totaling 20.811 billion yuan [6]. - **Ag(T + D)**: The closing price was 8663 yuan/kilogram, down 1.30%; trading volume increased by 35.47% to 745.95 tons; open interest fell 2.82% to 3187.026 tons [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The Fed is expected to cut policy rates in the second half of the year. Silver prices will perform strongly when the Fed's easing expectations increase, and it is recommended to wait and see for now, with the reference operating range for the Shanghai silver main contract being 8522 - 9075 yuan/kilogram. Gold will continue to be weak due to the weakening of geopolitical risk - aversion factors, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 767 - 801 yuan/gram [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that there are six major misconceptions regarding stablecoins in the current market [1][2] Group 2 - Misconception 1: The value of stablecoins is absolutely stable. In reality, stablecoins are credit extensions anchored to assets, and their value is subject to technical de-pegging risks and fluctuations in the underlying assets [1] - Misconception 2: All fiat currencies can issue stablecoins in large quantities. The development of different fiat stablecoins depends on the acceptance of the underlying currency, leading to a "winner-takes-all" scenario for the most trusted fiat stablecoins [1] - Misconception 3: Dollar stablecoins will weaken the credit of the US dollar. The rapid development of dollar stablecoins will not undermine the dollar system but will further strengthen the dollar's position by expanding its functionality and usage [1] - Misconception 4: Dollar stablecoins are a "lifeline" for US Treasury bonds. The dollar stablecoin market can only slightly alleviate the pressure on short-term US debt, while the overall impact on the US bond market is minimal [2] - Misconception 5: Dollar stablecoins will significantly increase the supply of US dollars. While the issuance authority of dollars is partially delegated to issuing companies, the Federal Reserve remains the main participant in controlling the total dollar liquidity [2] - Misconception 6: Stablecoins will rapidly promote the development of the RWA market. The support of stablecoins for RWA is more evident at the transaction level, and the development of the RWA market ultimately depends on the quality of the underlying assets [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target valuation range of HKD 12.90 to HKD 14.60, indicating a potential premium of 25% to 42% over the current stock price of HKD 10.30 [5][3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading gold mining enterprise in Henan Province, with a production scale of 7,000 tons of ore per day and an expected gold output of 5.2 tons in 2024, accounting for 1.37% of domestic gold production [1][14]. - The company has five major mining bases and a smelting processing plant, with a total gold reserve of approximately 131.81 tons (about 4.1 million ounces) as of the end of 2024 [1][46]. - The gold price is expected to remain strong due to a weakening dollar, increased central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [1][35][31]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading gold mining and smelting enterprise in Henan, with a focus on gold and its associated elements [14][23]. - It operates five mining bases and one smelting plant, with a daily ore processing capacity of 7,000 tons and a smelting capacity of 30 tons of gold annually [14][43]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 11.87 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with a net profit of HKD 698 million, reflecting a significant growth of 119.4% compared to 2023 [4][23]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 43.1% in 2024, up from 29.8% in 2023, driven by rising gold prices and operational improvements [2][4]. Mining and Resource Quality - The average gold resource grade is 5.56 grams per ton, which is higher than the global average of 5.3 grams per ton for the largest gold mines [2][46]. - The company plans to focus on exploration and expanding mining capacity, with an expected annual production growth rate of over 10% for the next five years [2][3]. Market Dynamics - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with global central bank gold buying exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, indicating strong demand for gold as a strategic asset [35][37]. - The geopolitical landscape, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, is likely to continue influencing gold prices positively [38][41].

贝森特"化债"的招靠谱吗？（二） [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 分析师：林彦 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100525030001 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com ➢ 在解决美元信用问题上美国确实玩出了"新花样"。如果说我们在上一篇中 讨论的修改监管规则、释放商业银行需求的还属于常规操作，那么深度捆绑稳定 币则是另辟蹊径的一笔——是解不了"近渴"的"远水"，但所谋甚大。 ➢ 利用加密货币这个与传统资产相对独立的新资金池来化债确实称得上 GENIUS（天才，恰巧是稳定币法案的名字） ，不得不承认在金融创新方面美国 确实走在前列。 ➢ 稳定币能不能解决美债的问题？我们认为这背后有两个维度：一个是短期内 比较直接的逻辑，除了在监管上最直接的要求外，还有把自己和"对手"绑在一 起的意味；另一个则是偏中长期、且更间接，通过巩固全球美元体系来支撑美元 信用，进而稳定美债，同时应对人民币国际化的挑战。 ➢ 对于第一个维度，市面上讨论的已经比 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - In the first half of 2025, institutional behavior showed three major changes: asset management extended duration, banks faced dual pressure on liabilities and performance, and insurance shifted some demand towards equities [3][4]. - The bond market outlook for the second half of 2025 indicates limited compression space for short-term spreads, while long-term demand from banks remains, potentially benefiting the downward trend of interest rates [4][5]. - The continuous reduction in bank convertible bonds is significantly altering market structure and triggering alternative allocation demands, with various funds seeking to fill the gap left by diminishing convertible bond supply [5][6]. Group 2: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - From January to May 2025, the motorcycle industry saw total sales of 6.822 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with significant growth in exports [8][9]. - Specific companies like Chunfeng Power and Qianjiang Motorcycle reported varied sales performance, with Chunfeng Power's fuel motorcycle sales increasing by 23% year-on-year, while Qianjiang Motorcycle experienced a 6% decline in total sales [9][10]. - The overall outlook for motorcycle exports remains positive, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [15]. Group 3: Aluminum Industry Overview - The aluminum market is currently experiencing a tight supply situation, with domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory dropping to 460,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons week-on-week [17][18]. - Despite a seasonal slowdown in demand, the low inventory levels are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices, while the overall aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited long-term supply growth [22]. - The domestic aluminum oxide market is showing signs of recovery, with production capacity increasing and a slight rise in operating rates, although the market remains relatively loose [21][22]. Group 4: Alternative Investment Strategies - A民间预测指标 has emerged as a significant indicator for asset price movements, particularly in relation to the U.S. recession expectations, influencing various markets including stocks, bonds, and commodities [25]. - The indicator has shown strong correlations with market trends, suggesting that investors should integrate it with traditional economic data for more comprehensive asset allocation strategies [25]. Group 5: Gold Trading Strategy - The gold trading strategy is structured into three goals: determining long-term trends, analyzing strategic asset allocation value, and managing short-term volatility to control maximum drawdown [27]. - The strategy anticipates potential maximum drawdowns of 15%-20% during specific economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of market context in gold investment [27][28].

Core Insights - The report outlines a "three-step" strategy for trading gold, focusing on long-term trends, strategic asset allocation, and short-term volatility management [6][9][11] - It emphasizes that the weakening of US dollar credit and the economic cycle in the US being in a "recession to recovery" phase could lead to a maximum drawdown of 15%-20% for gold prices [6][11] - If both long-term and strategic views on gold are bullish, short-term negative factors could result in a maximum drawdown of 0%-5% within one month, while multiple negative factors could lead to a 5%-10% drawdown over 100 days [6][11] Group 1: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy consists of three goals: determining the long-term trend of gold, analyzing its strategic allocation value, and managing short-term disturbances to control maximum drawdown [6][11] - The report suggests that the long-term trend of gold prices is influenced by US dollar credit and inflation expectations, with a bullish outlook if dollar credit weakens and inflation remains above 2% [11][14] - The asset allocation perspective indicates that stagflation is favorable for gold, while recovery phases may exert downward pressure on gold prices [11][20] Group 2: Market Conditions and Impacts - The report identifies that periods of "overheating to stagflation" are generally bullish for gold, while "recession to recovery" phases tend to be bearish [20][21] - It highlights that unexpected crises can significantly impact gold prices, with fiscal policies leading to different price movements compared to monetary policies [23][24] - The analysis shows that short-term fiscal expansion may lead to a temporary decline in gold prices, reflecting reduced short-term debt repayment pressures [24][25] Group 3: Risk Management and Investment Timing - The report provides a framework for assessing the safety margin for investing in gold, suggesting that investors should consider maximum drawdown levels before entering positions [30][31] - It outlines specific scenarios for maximum drawdowns based on various economic conditions, indicating that drawdowns could exceed 20% under aggressive rate hikes or significant fiscal expansion [32][35] - The report advises investors to wait for drawdowns of around 15% to consider building or increasing positions in gold [35][43]

Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - Recent appreciation of the RMB is driven by foreign trade enterprises' settlement behavior rather than domestic investors or central bank guidance[2][3][4]. - The "swap premium" indicator, reflecting the central bank's attitude towards maintaining the exchange rate, is currently at a low level (+200 pips), indicating a smoothing of exchange rate fluctuations rather than an active push for appreciation[12][11]. - The "Shanghai gold premium" remains elevated at 500-1000 pips, suggesting a divergence in domestic investors' recognition of the current exchange rate, indicating they are not the main drivers of recent appreciation[19][18]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The widening of the US-China interest rate differential is unusual during the recent RMB appreciation, primarily due to rising US Treasury yields driven by credit weakness rather than economic strength[26][10]. - The RMB's recent appreciation benefits from two factors: the discount on US dollar assets requiring higher yields for compensation and high interest rates suppressing credit expansion amid recession fears[26][10]. - Future RMB exchange rate pricing frameworks must consider the variable of US dollar credit, as the traditional significance of the US-China interest rate differential may no longer apply effectively[26][10]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential disruptions from US tariffs and increasing domestic economic pressures, which could impact the RMB's stability[7][32].

贵金属日报 2025-06-16 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 美国通胀数据全面低于预期，市场对于联储下半年宽松货币政策的预期回升，这将驱动白银价 格后续表现强势：上周公布的美国 5 月 CPI 数据则全面低于预期，美国 5 月 CPI 同比值为 2.4%， 低于预期和前值的 2.5%。美国 5 月核心 CPI 同比值为 2.8%，低于预期的 2.9%。数据公布后， 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文表示 CPI 数据表现良好，美联储应当降息 100 个基点以缓和 美债利息支出。美国 5 月 PPI 同比值为 2.6%，符合预期，环比值为 0.1%，低于预期的 0.2%。 美国 5 月核心 PPI 同比值为 3%，低于预期的 3.1% 和前值的 3.2%，环比值为 0.1%，低于 预期的 0.3%。同时，就业数据方面，美国至 5 月 31 日当周初请失业救济人数为 24.8 万人， 高于预期的 24 万人。 数据公布后，美国总统特朗普再度表达强烈的降息需求，他认为联储 降息 200 个基点能为美国节省 6000 亿美元的财政支出，市场进一步加大对于联储下半年边 际宽松的预期。 联储降息预期的核心驱动在于美债利息支出，因此 ...

Market Overview - The stablecoin market has seen significant growth since 2020, with a current market capitalization of nearly $245 billion, representing about 7% of the total cryptocurrency market valued at approximately $3.4 trillion[15][18]. - Over 99% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with USDT and USDC dominating the market, accounting for 62.8% and 25.5% of the total stablecoin market capitalization, respectively[18][22]. Drivers of Growth - The growth of stablecoins is driven by their advantages in payment settlements, including efficiency, cost savings, and risk mitigation compared to traditional fiat currencies and other cryptocurrencies[15][22]. - Increased geopolitical risks and economic instability in emerging markets have created a demand for stablecoins as alternative currencies, with countries like Turkey seeing stablecoin purchases amounting to nearly 4% of their GDP[30][32]. Regulatory Developments - The passage of the "GENIUS Act" in the US marks a significant step towards establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is expected to enhance market development and attract more foreign investment[6][22][35]. - The act requires stablecoin issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve of compliant assets for every stablecoin issued, which is crucial for maintaining trust and stability in the market[38][41]. Impact on Global Currency and Assets - Stablecoins are expected to strengthen the US dollar's dominance in the global monetary system, potentially challenging the effectiveness of monetary policy in countries with unstable currencies[41][43]. - While the expansion of the stablecoin market may increase demand for US Treasury bonds, its overall impact on short-term bonds is limited, and it does not alleviate the pressure on long-term bonds due to persistent fiscal deficits[45][48]. Risks and Challenges - The ongoing uncertainty regarding cryptocurrency regulations in regions like mainland China poses risks to the stablecoin market's growth and adoption[50]. - The reliance of stablecoins on the US dollar's credit may not be sufficient to counteract the potential damage to dollar credibility amid global de-dollarization trends[32][49].