Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is showing a cautious attitude towards further interest rate cuts, with officials expressing concerns about inflation risks and limited room for additional easing after the recent rate cut [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem supports the recent rate cut but believes that further easing is limited unless inflation risks do not increase [1][3]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic shares a similar cautious stance, indicating that he sees no reason for further cuts this year due to concerns about prolonged high inflation [1][3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Musalem describes the recent rate cut as a preventive measure to support the labor market and prevent further weakness, while emphasizing the need for caution in monetary policy [3]. - Bostic predicts that core inflation will rise from 2.9% in July to 3.1% by the end of the year, with a slight increase in unemployment to 4.5% [3][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impacts - Both officials mention the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, with Musalem noting that while tariff effects have been less than expected, other factors are pushing inflation higher [5]. - Bostic observes that the cost increases driven by tariffs have been milder than initially predicted, but warns that these buffers may diminish in the coming months, leading to sustained price pressures [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, which was in line with market expectations. After the policy was implemented, the interest rate market showed a slight upward trend. The 10-year US Treasury bond rate is expected to rise slightly and stabilize within the new range of 4.06-4.16%. The market will then re - evaluate the next policy adjustment based on the core PCE at the end of September and the unemployment rate at the beginning of October [3][4]. - Global stock markets had different performances during the "interest rate cut week." US stocks led the rise and hit a record high, while the Asia - Pacific stock markets followed the upward trend and the European markets were under pressure. Different types of commodities and foreign exchange also showed significant structural differentiation [5][21][23]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Review 1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US this week was 231,000, lower than the expected 241,000 and the previous revised value of 264,000, indicating that the overall lay - off level in the US remains low [1][10]. - **Business Index**: In August, retail sales grew steadily, with the month - on - month growth of retail sales at 0.6% and core retail sales at 0.7%, both higher than expected. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels, the largest decline in nearly three months. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in September reached its highest level since January, and most indicators pointed to economic recovery [2][11]. - **Policy**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% to ease labor market pressure. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in 2025 [3][12]. 1.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review - **US**: During the week from September 12 to September 19, 2025, US Treasury yields rose across the board. The yields of 2 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury bonds increased by 1bp, 4bp, 5bp, 7bp, 8bp, 6bp, and 7bp respectively. The 20 - year US Treasury bond auction had strong market demand [4][13][15]. - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese government bond yields rose, and German government bond yields reached a two - week high. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Japanese government bond rates increased by 2.3bp, 1.4bp, and 0.2bp respectively. The 10 - year German government bond rate increased by 3bp to 2.73% [20]. 2. Other Major Asset Reviews - **Equity**: Global stock markets entered the "interest rate cut week." US stocks led the rise and hit a record high. The Nasdaq index rose 2.21%. The South Korean stock market rose for seven consecutive days, hitting a new annual high. However, the Russian stock market continued its downward trend, and the stock markets of China, the UK, and Germany remained relatively stable [21]. - **Commodities**: Black and chemical products had significant increases, while agricultural products and some industrial metals were under pressure. Precious metals remained relatively stable, and digital assets such as Bitcoin slightly declined [22]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the stability of the UK and Japan's policies led to intensified structural differentiation in the foreign exchange market. The Russian ruble strengthened significantly, the US dollar index slightly declined, and the euro and Swiss franc slightly appreciated. On the other hand, the British pound, Japanese yen, and South Korean won depreciated against the Chinese yuan [23]. 3. Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts to show the changes in bond interest rates, stock index returns, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [30][32][35][40][47][51].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but internal divisions among officials regarding future rate cuts have emerged, leading to a temporary misalignment between market expectations and the Fed's stance [1][3]. Group 1: Rate Cut Controversy - Among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 9 support no further rate cuts or only one more cut this year, while another 9 believe that a total cut of 75 basis points is warranted, suggesting cuts in October and December [3]. - One official advocates for a more aggressive cut of 125 basis points, with market speculation pointing to this individual being Milan [3]. - The market anticipates two more rate cuts this year, with probabilities exceeding 80% for October and December, despite Powell's emphasis on the need for data-driven decisions at each meeting [3]. Group 2: Shift in Focus - Powell noted that while the economy is slowing, there are still positive indicators, with GDP growth at 1.5% for the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year [5]. - There is an increasing risk in the labor market, with job creation slowing below the level needed to maintain the unemployment rate, while inflation risks are decreasing [5]. - The focus of rate cuts in the second half of the year is shifting towards improving the labor market, with the Fed awaiting more data on non-farm payrolls and core PCE before making further decisions [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the current rate cuts may improve the labor market but could also introduce inflation risks, with expectations of rising inflation in the first quarter of next year [7]. - The Federal Reserve officials are currently oscillating between 50 and 75 basis points for potential cuts, highlighting the importance of upcoming employment data [7]. - The gold market is experiencing a technical adjustment phase, with bullish positions taking a breather, awaiting further data to drive prices upward, with potential to challenge the $4,000 mark [7].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The median rate forecast for the end of the year is 3.5%-3.75%, indicating an additional 50 basis points of potential cuts within the year[2] - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management cut," reflecting a balanced policy stance between hawkish and dovish views[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its real GDP growth forecast for next year to 1.8% while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast and raising core inflation expectations[2] - There is significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 9 members advocating for 2 more cuts, while 6 believe no further cuts are necessary[2] - Despite a weakening job market, consumer and retail sales indicators remain robust, suggesting a favorable environment for risk assets[3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The likelihood of two additional 25 basis point cuts in upcoming meetings is high, making the current environment favorable for equities[3] - Investors are advised to maintain equity asset allocations until there is a clear deterioration in economic indicators[3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Unexpectedly strong recovery in the job market and persistent inflation above expectations could delay the Fed's rate cut schedule[4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 17, marking the first reduction since December 2024, signaling a significant shift in economic conditions [1] - Recent economic data indicates a slowdown in the U.S. economy, with GDP unexpectedly contracting by 0.5% in Q1 2025, and net exports dragging down growth by 4.61 percentage points [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, with job creation falling short of market expectations for three consecutive months [3] Group 2 - Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve has been notable, as he has pressured the institution for aggressive rate cuts to boost economic growth and enhance his political standing [3] - The Fed's decision to cut rates reflects a delicate balance, with internal dissent highlighted by a dissenting vote from a Trump-appointed member, indicating concerns over the adequacy of the rate cut [3][5] - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "preventive" measure, acknowledging the severe economic situation while also cautioning against potential inflation risks [5] Group 3 - The immediate market reaction to the rate cut saw a decline in the U.S. dollar index, indicating a reshuffling of global capital flows [5] - The depreciation of the dollar makes other currencies relatively "more valuable," introducing new variables for international trade and cross-border investments [5] - Chinese assets have shown positive performance across stock, currency, and bond markets, prompting investors to reassess their strategies in light of these developments [5] Group 4 - The future economic trajectory remains uncertain, with Powell's inflation concerns suggesting that overly aggressive monetary policy could lead to rising prices and deeper economic troubles [6] - The interconnectedness of the global economy means that U.S. policy decisions can trigger significant ripple effects in international markets [6] - Investors and market participants must adopt forward-looking strategies to navigate the complexities of the evolving global economic landscape [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen continues to decline against the US dollar following the FOMC meeting, with the divergence in policy outlooks between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) likely to limit further depreciation of the low-yielding yen [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Economic Data - The yen fell for the second consecutive day, reaching its lowest level since July 7, as the dollar strengthened broadly [2]. - Japan's core machinery orders for July decreased by 4.6% month-on-month, with private sector order growth slowing from 7.6% in June to 4.9% year-on-year, which was below market expectations and exerted pressure on the yen [3]. - The Fed lowered borrowing costs for the first time since December 2024, reducing the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with expectations for further cuts by the end of the year [3]. Group 2: Policy Outlook and Market Sentiment - There is a growing consensus that the BoJ will maintain its policy normalization path, contrasting with the Fed's dovish stance, which should limit the yen's depreciation [2][3]. - The tight labor market and optimistic economic outlook in Japan open the door for potential interest rate hikes by the BoJ, while geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts may deter aggressive bearish bets on the yen [4]. - The market is focused on the upcoming two-day BoJ meeting, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged, and investors are looking for clues regarding future policy direction [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY needs to break through the 147.40-147.50 range to support further upward movement [6]. - After breaking below the 146.30-146.20 support level, the market reversed post-FOMC meeting, breaking above the 147.00 level, although daily oscillators have not confirmed a bullish outlook [7]. - Significant downward movements may find support around the 146.20 area, with a break below exposing the overnight low near 145.50-145.45, potentially accelerating declines towards the psychological level of 145.00 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure, retreating below the historical high of $3700, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and comments from Chairman Powell indicating no immediate need for rapid rate cuts [1][2]. Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with indications of two more rate cuts within the year due to a slowing job market [2]. - Despite an initial surge in gold prices, the rebound in US Treasury yields and the dollar led to a sharp decline in gold prices, as Powell highlighted upward inflation risks and a gradual approach to future rate policy [2]. Geopolitical Risks - The intensification of geopolitical tensions, including Russia's military actions and Israel's increased military operations in Gaza, may provide some support for gold prices, limiting potential declines [3]. Technical Analysis - Key support for gold is identified at $3645, previously a resistance level, while $3700 remains a strong resistance point [4][6]. - If gold prices fall below $3645, further declines to the $3610-$3600 range may occur, while a breakthrough above $3678-$3680 could lead to a challenge of the historical high [6]. Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections indicate a growth forecast of 1.6% for the US economy this year, with core PCE inflation expected at 3.1% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of DBS Bank, Taimur Baig, predicts that the Federal Reserve will only lower interest rates twice in 2025 and once in 2026, contrary to market expectations of three rate cuts in both years [1] Economic Factors - U.S. tariff policies and immigration controls are tightening the labor market, contributing to inflation risks [1] - Strong financial conditions for households and businesses, along with a surge in AI-related energy demand, are also factors driving inflation [1] - The ongoing rise in the stock market is expected to further exacerbate inflationary pressures [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The current rate-cutting cycle is anticipated to stall after a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points [1] - The mainstream view of a terminal rate of 3.5% by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is unlikely to be shaken due to heightened inflation pressures compared to a year ago [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [7] - Option investment rating: Short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market's interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled, and copper prices declined. However, the TC price of copper remains low, and the demand outlook is not as pessimistic as in the middle of the year. When the price drops below 80,000 yuan/ton, the downstream restocking sentiment may be stimulated [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 17, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 81,010 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 80,560 yuan/ton, a -0.40% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract in the night session was 79,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 79,880 yuan/ton, a 0.84% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper continued to weaken. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,410 - 80,790 yuan/ton, with a premium of 60 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan) over the main contract. The market procurement sentiment was low, and holders actively lowered prices to sell [2] Important Information Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the market expected a more than 90% chance of a rate cut in October [3] Mining End - Australia's Orion Minerals signed a non - binding term sheet with a Glencore subsidiary to provide $200 million - $250 million in financing for its Prieska copper - zinc project in South Africa. Different countries have introduced different mining regulatory measures [4] Smelting and Import - Canadian miner Highland Copper's Copperwood copper project in the US received a "non - binding interest letter" from the US Export - Import Bank, with a potential financing of up to $250 million [5] Consumption - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 37.3% and 36.7% [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,675 tons to 149,775 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 33,291 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 154,200 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous week [6] Table Data - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums, inventories, warehouse receipts, spreads, and arbitrage ratios from different time points (September 18, 2025; September 17, 2025; September 11, 2025; August 19, 2025) [26][27][28]

Group 1: Fed Rate Decision - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025, the first rate cut in nine months this year [2][3] - The Fed removed the statement of "robust labor market conditions" and added concerns about employment growth slowdown, a slight rise in the unemployment rate, and increased downside risks to employment [2][3] - This rate cut is a "risk management" cut to address the risk of labor market deterioration rather than inflation pressure [3] - The FOMC dot plot shows that two more rate cuts are expected this year, but there is significant internal disagreement, with less than half of the officials supporting three rate cuts in total [3] Group 2: Market Reaction - After the resolution, the US 10-year Treasury yield initially dropped and then rose, indicating that the market digested short-term easing but long-term interest rate pressure remained [4] - The gold market first rose and then fell, showing that market risk aversion briefly released and then returned to calm [4] - The rate cut eased market liquidity pressure, but due to coexisting employment and inflation risks, asset prices showed differentiation, with the bond market rising in a volatile manner and gold falling under pressure [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The median forecast for real GDP in 2025 is 1.6%, up from the June forecast of 1.4% [25] - The median forecast for the unemployment rate in 2025 remains at 4.5%, with a slight change in the range compared to the June forecast [25] - The median forecast for PCE in 2025 is 3%, with no change from the June forecast, and the forecast for future years shows a gradual decline towards the 2% target [25] - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2025 is 3.6%, down from the June forecast of 3.9% [25]