11月27日，"2025搜狐财经年度论坛"在北京举办。 在论坛中，创金合信基金基金经理毛丁丁带来了题为"看好美股生物科技板块的投资机会"的主题分享。 毛丁丁明确表示，美股生物科技板块正迎来重要的投资拐点，美股创新药板块超额收益的修复还没有结束，未来一段时间兼有beta和α机会。 他指出，尽管该板块在过去几年因高利率、政策不确定性及产业竞争等多重因素压制持续跑输大盘，估值一度跌至近三十年低位，但自2025年三季度起，随 着美联储降息落地、政策预期改善与技术迭代进入新阶段，板块已出现显著反弹。 搜狐财经的各位网友们，大家好，我是创金合信全球医药生物（QDII）基金经理毛丁丁，很高兴参加搜狐财经2025年度论坛。在这里我想跟大家分享一下 我们对创新药，特别是美股生物科技板块投资机会的最新观点。我想用一句概括的话来开始今天的分享，那就是：我们非常看好美股生物科技板块的投资机 会。 我们先来回顾一下美股生物科技板块的走势。从较长的历史看，美股生物科技板块长期跑赢大盘，但近几年却显著跑输，我们分析，这主要受到了多个因素 的影响。第一，宏观层面，美联储从2022年以来持续加息，持续数年的高利率严重影响了生物科技行业的创新活 ...

先说说油价，这波反弹其实挺有戏剧性的。前几天特朗普说俄乌谈判有进展，市场一下子慌了，担心俄 罗斯原油重回市场，油价直接跳水。但大家别忘了，我跑财经新闻那会，见过不少地缘政治驱动的油价 波动，这种靠单一消息的涨跌往往站不住脚。果然没过多久，油价就跟着全球股市一起反弹，收复了之 前的失地。其实核心原因很简单，俄乌和平协议哪有那么容易达成，双方的核心诉求一直没谈拢，加上 俄罗斯石油还在受西方制裁，短期供应端不会有大变化。不过咱们也得清醒，美国原油库存还在增加， 供应过剩的担忧没完全消除，油价后续还得看俄乌谈判的实际进展，别盲目追高。 朋友们，最近大宗商品市场可太热闹了，油价从一个月低点反弹回血，黄金铜价跟着往上冲，白银更是 涨得飞起。作为做了20年财经记者、专做中长线的帮主郑重，今天就跟大家扒一扒这波行情的核心逻 辑，还有咱们普通人该怎么跟着趋势做布局。 再看黄金和铜价，这俩上涨的逻辑就更清晰了，完全是跟着美联储的降息预期走。现在市场都在押注12 月降息，哈塞特作为下任美联储主席热门人选，又被视作"激进降息派"，这消息一出来，资金立马往避 险和通胀受益资产里流。黄金这东西，向来是降息周期的"硬通货"，今年迄今都涨了 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 铝价震荡等待下一波上涨驱动力 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21440元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21330元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-120元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21340元/吨，较上一交易日变化100元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-110元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-11-25日沪铝主力合约开于21415元/吨，收于21465元/吨，较上一交易日变化85元/吨，最 高价达21525元/吨，最低价达到21380元/吨。全天交易日成交157390手，全天交易日持仓271763手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-25，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.3万吨，较上一期变化-0.8万吨，仓单库存69283 吨，较上一交易日变化-125吨，LME铝库存543725吨，较上一交易日变化-2225吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-25SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2835元/吨，山东价格录得2770元/吨，河南价格录得 2860 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report After a period of continuous rise, coupled with the adjustment of US stocks overseas, market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces certain uncertainties. However, in the long - run, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: Diplomatic tensions between China and Japan, signs of a sell - off in US stocks, potential Fed rate cuts, and possible relaxation of US restrictions on Nvidia's chip sales to China [10]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In October 2025, industrial added value grew 4.9% year - on - year, retail sales 2.9%, and fixed - asset investment fell 1.7%. Manufacturing PMI was 49.0, lower than expected. M1 and M2 growth rates declined, and social financing increment decreased. Exports in US dollars decreased, and housing prices fell [10]. - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: This week, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate diverged, credit spreads narrowed, and liquidity remained loose [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small number of IM long positions in the long - term due to low - to - medium valuation and long - term discount. Hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest - rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Stock Index Performance**: Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others all declined, with the decline ranging from 2.72% (Shanghai 50) to 6.15% (ChiNext Index) [14]. - **Futures Contract Performance**: All futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, showed declines, with the decline rate varying from 2.49% (IH current month) to 5.70% (IC next month) [15]. 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: The Q3 2025 GDP real growth rate was 4.8%. In October, manufacturing PMI was 49.0, consumption growth was 2.9%, exports in US dollars decreased by 1.1%, and investment growth was - 1.7%. Manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure investment growth rates continued to decline [32][35][38]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 third - quarter report, the year - on - year revenue growth rate was 1.24%, and the net profit growth rate was 3.89%, both showing an upward trend compared to the semi - annual report [41]. 4. Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate showed different trends. DR007, 7 - day reverse - repurchase rate, and reverse - repurchase volume were presented. There were also comparisons of Sino - US 10 - year bond rates and spreads [44][47][49]. - **Credit Environment**: In October 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates declined, and the social financing increment decreased, mainly due to the front - loading of government bond issuance and a decrease in household loans [55]. 5. Fundamentals - **Fund Inflows**: This week, about 220.97 billion shares of equity - oriented funds were newly established, and the new margin trading balance was - 3.18 billion yuan, with the latest balance reaching a record high of 24,743.61 billion yuan [61][64]. - **Fund Outflows**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 74.35 billion yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 2 [67]. 6. Valuation - **Valuation Indicators**: The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of Shanghai 50 was 11.88, CSI 300 was 13.87, CSI 500 was 31.11, and CSI 1000 was 44.77. The price - to - book ratio (LF) of Shanghai 50 was 1.30, CSI 300 was 1.44, CSI 500 was 2.12, and CSI 1000 was 2.35 [71].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a period of fluctuation and adjustment in the short term due to mixed signals from the non-farm employment data and ongoing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On November 20, gold opened at $4077.91 per ounce, reached a high of $4109.92, and then fell to a low of $4038.65 before closing at $4077.22, with a daily fluctuation of $71.27 [3]. - The market anticipates mixed economic data releases, including the U.S. November PMI and consumer confidence index, which may continue to influence gold prices [3]. Economic Indicators - The strong performance of the September non-farm employment data and the Federal Reserve officials' reluctance to rush into rate cuts have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut, but this could also be seen as a temporary alleviation of negative factors for gold prices [5]. - Long-term, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue easing policies, indicating that the rate cut cycle remains in play, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6]. Technical Analysis - On a weekly basis, gold prices are currently supported by the 10-week moving average, suggesting potential for future strength if this support holds [8]. - The daily chart indicates that gold is in a triangular consolidation pattern, with key resistance at $4230 and support at $3930, guiding trading strategies [9]. Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4050 and $4030, while resistance levels are at $4105 and $4130 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The gold stocks have rebounded in early trading, with notable increases in share prices for several companies, despite recent declines in international gold prices due to weakened safe-haven demand and inconsistent expectations regarding U.S. economic data and interest rate cuts [1]. Company Performance - China Gold International (02009) increased by 3.37%, reaching HKD 134.9 - Zijin Mining International (02259) rose by 2.57%, reaching HKD 135.9 - Zhaojin Mining Industry (01818) gained 2.32%, reaching HKD 28.28 - Shandong Gold (01787) increased by 1.8%, reaching HKD 32.84 [1]. Market Analysis - COMEX gold prices recently fell below USD 4000 per ounce, influenced by two main factors: a reduction in safe-haven demand and the lack of important U.S. economic data, leading to mixed investor expectations regarding the labor market and inflation trends [1]. - According to Everbright Securities, the combination of the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle and increased global uncertainty has led to a resurgence in gold ETF investment demand. The trend of central banks increasing gold holdings continues amid a backdrop of de-dollarization, supporting a bullish outlook for gold prices [1]. Recommendations - Everbright Securities recommends investing in Zijin Mining and suggests monitoring Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zijin Mining International [1].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices opening lower and closing down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.16% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.93 trillion, an increase of 15.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Lithium Carbonate Market - CITIC Securities indicated a shift from supply pressure to demand-driven dynamics in the lithium carbonate market, forecasting a new cycle for lithium carbonate. In November, the supply of lithium carbonate was approximately 115,000 tons, while demand reached 128,000 tons, resulting in a shortage of about 13,000 tons [2] - The ongoing strong demand is expected to continue supporting orders into next year, with a significant improvement in the supply-demand fundamentals for lithium carbonate anticipated due to sustained energy storage demand [2] - Static forecasts suggest that by 2026, global lithium resource supply will reach 2.089 million tons, while consumption will be 2.004 million tons, indicating a structural shortage in the lithium market [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Outlook - Zhongtai Securities expressed optimism for a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting that disruptions in major mines have led to significant downward revisions in global copper mine increments for next year [3] - The demand for industrial metals is expected to benefit from a global interest rate reduction cycle, with traditional demand recovering and new energy demand continuing to rise [3] - The outlook for energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, is positive due to improved supply-demand dynamics and price expectations following supply constraints [3] AI Infrastructure and Projects - Huatai Securities recommended ongoing attention to the "Qianwen" project initiated by Alibaba, which aims to compete with ChatGPT. The project was launched on November 17, with the public beta version of the Qianwen app now available [4] - The Qianwen app is seen as a significant move in the domestic AI competition, integrating various life scenarios and leveraging the latest AI models from Alibaba's Tongyi Laboratory [4] - The development of AI infrastructure and related upstream beneficiaries is expected to be a key area of focus moving forward [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent global market downturn, highlighting a liquidity shock that has led to a collective decline in various asset classes, including global stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold, with the Asia-Pacific region experiencing the largest drop of over 3% in Japan and South Korea [4][8]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining core positions in quality equity investments, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, and suggests that the main investment themes remain unchanged despite market fluctuations [7][10]. - The article advises investors to lower their expectations and set realistic benchmarks for returns, suggesting that the focus should be on long-term investment in quality companies rather than short-term gains [13][15]. Group 2 - The article highlights the need for investors to avoid crowded trades and to be cautious about entering popular sectors unless they have a deep understanding of industry trends, using examples from the lithium battery sector and the banking sector to illustrate the risks of chasing hot stocks [17][22]. - It advocates for dynamic portfolio balancing and the acquisition of undervalued assets, suggesting that investors should assess their holdings and consider diversifying across different sectors and regions to mitigate risks [24][27]. - The article mentions the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, noting the impact of significant capital raises on valuations and the mixed results from companies like Xiaomi, which reported a 20% year-on-year revenue increase but faces concerns about sustaining growth in its automotive business [34].

特朗普最近在自己的社交媒体上宣布，将向每位美国公民发放至少2000美元的股息，但"高收入人群"将 不包括在内。如此大规模的类似"刺激"的付款，其经济影响无疑是巨大的，尤其是在股市创下历史新高 的情况下。 首先，谁将收到这笔付款呢？我们可以看看最近一次的刺激付款，也就是2021年3月发放的1400美元刺 激支票。当时，全额付款只给那些收入低于75,000美元的单身申报者、家庭收入低于112,500美元的人 群，以及已婚联合申报者收入低于150,000美元的家庭。相同的标准预计会应用到2025年：目前大约有 2.2亿美国成年人符合这些收入标准，其中大约15%收入最高的人将被排除在外。按照这个比例，2.2亿 人乘以2000美元，支付金额大约为4400亿美元。预计支票金额可能会超过2000美元。 根据已知的数据，2025年第二季度，美国收入前10%的消费者将占美国总支出的49.2%。这一比例达到 了自1989年以来的最高水平。 8月份，美国的关税收入创下了300亿美元的纪录，看起来特朗普确实取得了某些胜利。然而，仅仅2025 年8月，美国政府的财政赤字就高达3450亿美元，而关税收入仅占每月赤字的10%左右，特朗普虽 ...

Macro Insights - The effectiveness of policy tools on social financing is yet to be fully realized, with October's new RMB loans and social financing both showing a year-on-year decrease, reflecting a weak real estate cycle and the impact of local and corporate debt replacement loans [2][3] - M1 and M2 growth rates have slightly declined but remain relatively fast, with M2 at 8.2% year-on-year and M1 at 6.2% [2][3] Banking Sector - In October, social financing increased by 815 billion RMB, significantly below the expected 1.53 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion RMB, indicating a slowdown in credit demand [3] - The banking sector's configuration value has improved, with recommendations for quality regional banks such as Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Chengdu Bank, as well as stable dividend payers like Shanghai Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3] Machinery Industry - The FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) sector is expected to see accelerated order releases due to the transition to deep-sea oil and gas development, supported by a favorable financing environment from the Fed's interest rate cuts [4] - Key companies to watch include CIMC, China Shipbuilding, and Bohai Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from this investment cycle [4] A-Share Market - The A-share earnings cycle is showing signs of improvement, with structural differentiation narrowing, particularly in advanced manufacturing and TMT sectors [5] - Recommendations include focusing on industries with dual supply-demand improvements, such as railways, textiles, and photovoltaic equipment [5] Communication Sector - Gaode Infrared has entered a new phase of mass production for complete equipment systems, with a target price of 18.90 RMB based on a 70x PE valuation for 2026 [6] - The company is expected to benefit from expanding product categories and customer bases in both domestic and international markets [6] AI and Technology - Industrial Fulian is experiencing rapid growth in its AI server business, with Q3 GPU AI server revenue increasing over five times year-on-year, and a positive outlook for Q4 [7] - The company maintains a target price of 100.0 RMB, reflecting strong demand in AI infrastructure [7] Gaming and Entertainment - Aubo Holdings reported a decline in market share to 11.8% in Q3 2025, attributed to the gradual phasing out of satellite entertainment venues and increased competition [8] - The company’s net income decreased by 6% year-on-year, indicating challenges in attracting customers [8] Retail Sector - Gao Xin Retail's revenue for the first half of FY26 was 30.5 billion RMB, down 12.1% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.2 billion RMB [13] - The new management has outlined a three-year reform plan aimed at improving supply chain and organizational structure, with a projected dividend yield of around 9% [13]