Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant strength, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising over 4%, reaching a nearly four-year high, and the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.78%, approaching the important 27,000-point mark [1][2] - Major technology stocks such as SenseTime and Baidu saw increases of over 15%, while Alibaba rose by 5.28%, marking its highest level since October 2021, with a market capitalization returning to 300 billion HKD [1] - The positive market sentiment is driven by multiple factors, including favorable external conditions, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) by leading internet companies [5][6][10] Group 2 - Fund companies believe that the Hong Kong stock market's recovery is supported by low valuations, smooth US-China trade negotiations, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, accelerated domestic AI developments, and the relative scarcity of assets compared to A-shares [2][4] - The market is expected to benefit from a new round of interest rate cuts, with the potential for increased liquidity to attract more foreign investment into the Hong Kong market [6][10] - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index remains low compared to other major global indices, providing an attractive investment opportunity despite recent price increases [6][12] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is particularly sensitive to global liquidity conditions, and the anticipated weakening of the US dollar could enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong-listed companies to foreign investors [10][14] - Historical data indicates that the Hong Kong market has typically performed well in the 12 months following interest rate cuts, with an average increase of 31.7% [10] - Key sectors to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy vehicles, and technology, particularly in the context of AI and internet companies, which are expected to continue showing strong performance [14][15]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw collective gains on September 17, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.95% [1] - The A500 ETF (512050), which tracks the CSI A500 Index, rebounded with a rise of 0.88%, reaching a new historical high, and recorded a trading volume exceeding 4.9 billion yuan, leading its category [1] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 18, aligning with market expectations, and indicated further cuts in the coming years, with a projected median rate of 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 [1] Group 2 - Multiple institutions released research reports suggesting that the current interest rate cut cycle differs from previous ones, with potential positive performance for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - Huaxin Securities indicated that the current rate cut cycle is expected to be deeper and longer due to weak economic conditions, leading to a trend of opportunities in rate cut trading, benefiting risk assets and the AH market [1] - Bank of China Securities noted that the Hong Kong stock market could benefit from global liquidity shifts and domestic profit turning points, with a focus on scarce technology assets and high-dividend state-owned enterprises during the rate cut cycle [1] Group 3 - The new generation core A500 ETF (512050) and A500 Enhanced ETF (512370) facilitate investors in strategically allocating to core A-share assets amid the global liquidity easing cycle initiated by the Fed [2] - The A500 ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading company selection, covering all 35 sub-industries and integrating value and growth attributes [2] - Compared to the CSI 300, the A500 ETF is overweight in new productivity sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy, showcasing a natural "barbell" investment strategy [2]

首席 点 评 ： 美联储如期降息 美联储如期降息25基点，承认劳动力市场走弱，提及通胀上行；点阵图显示年内预计还降息两次，明年 预计降息一次。加拿大央行周三降息，将基准隔夜利率下调0.25个百分点至2.5%，这是自3月以来的首 次降息。香港特区行政长官17日11时在特区立法会宣读行政长官2025年施政报告。协助中概股以香港为 首选回归地；推动港股人民币交易柜台纳入"股票通"南向交易。推动香港机场管理局（机管局）及金融 机构在港拓展黄金仓储，以三年超越2000吨为目标，建造区域黄金储备枢纽。财政部：前八月全国一般 公共预算收入同比增加0.3%，支出同比增长3.1%，交易印花税收入大增81.7% 。 重点品种： 黄金、铜、股指 黄金： 美联储利率决议后金银波动加剧。9月美联储降息25个基点，符合市场预期。仅有刚被任命的美 联储理事米兰支持降息50个基点。点阵图显示美联储当下的中性预期为年内再降息50个基点，明年降息 25个基点，政策路径节奏上相对偏鹰。本周刚公布的美国8月零售销售表现强劲，环比增长0.6%，预估 为0.2%。同比增长2.1%，实现连续第11个月实现正增长。上周公布的8月CPI同比上涨2.9%。核心 ...

【导读】港股大涨，基金公司解读投资机会 中国基金报记者 张燕北 孙晓辉 港股开始表现！ 当有投资者还在感慨 " 在港股躲牛市 " 时，港股已悄然走强。 周三，在多重利好刺激下，港股迎来爆发：恒生科技指数大涨超过 4% ，一举创下近四年新 高；恒生指数收涨 1.78% ，逼近 27000 点重要关口，也创四年多新高。 科技股全线上涨，成为昨日行情的主要引擎。截至收盘，商汤、百度均涨超 15% 。阿里巴巴 涨 5.28% ，创 2021 年 10 月以来新高，市值重回 3 万亿港元。阿里巴巴、腾讯等互联网 巨头持续创阶段新高再度引发市场热议。 消息面上，除了香港特区行政长官李家超发表 2025 年《施政报告》，提及多项金融和科技 发展举措，百度、阿里巴巴等互联网公司均在前沿人工智能方向有新的进展。 港股近期涨势能否延续？美联储领衔的降息周期开启，港股是否受益？还有哪些热点值得关 注？ 受访基金公司普遍认为，港股估值不高、中美经贸谈判顺利、美联储降息预期、国内 AI 进展 加速，以及相对于 A 股的稀缺性等因素，共同驱动港股回暖。在新一轮降息周期中，港股有 望率先受益。虽然前期上涨带来估值修复，但港股仍有一定吸引力 ...

（原标题：时报图说｜历次降息周期 A股表现如何？） ...

【导读】美联储即将降息 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚，真的要无眠了！美联储要降息（凌晨2点），泰勒要加班！ 先简单看看目前海外市场的表现。 美股分化 9月17日晚间，临近美联储降息关键节点，美股三大指数走势分化，道指涨超300点，纳指跳水跌约0.5%，标普500指数微跌。 经济学家大多预计，官员们会在"点阵图"中为今年预留两次降息，与6月预测一致。这意味着本周之后今年或仅有一次降息，落在10月或 12月。 尽管"意外"空间不小，但期权交易显示，市场押注这次反应将比平常更平稳。摩根大通的Andrew Tyler表示，最可能的情形是降息25个基 点：只要鲍威尔偏鸽，并释放循序渐进的降息信号，标普500指数或将上涨0.5%~1%。 | 九月美联储会议情景 | 可能性 | 标准普尔500指数反应 | | --- | --- | --- | | 如果美联储降息 0.50% | 7.5% | 下跌 1.5% 至上涨 1.5% | | 鸽派降息0.25% | 47.5% | 上涨0.5%至1% | | 鹰派降息0.25% | 40.0% | 持平至下降0.5% | | 如果美联储继续暂停 | 4.0% | 下降 ...

时报图说 设计:李 雄 型 北安 联储切出版 次降息周期 股長要机如LP 时间 美国联邦基金目标利率上限(%) 0 2 4 6 8 10 1990 1991 降息 18 次 1990/07-1992/09 1992 累计幅度 525 个基点 降息期间 沪指 +653.58% 1993 (A股设立初期,涨幅不具有参考性) 1994 1995 1995/07-1996/01 降息 3 次 1996 累计幅度 /5个基点 降息期间 沪指 -15.52% 1997 1998 1000/00 1000/11 1770/U7-1770/ II 障局 U 次 1999 累计幅度 5 个基点 降息期间 沪指 +4.91% 2000 互联网泡沫破灭 "9·11"恐怖袭击事件 2001 降息 ||次 2001/01-2001/12_ 累计幅度 475个基点 2002 降息期间 沪指 -20.35% 2003 2002/11-2003/06 降息 2 次 累计幅度 75个基点 2004 降息期间 沪指 -3.60% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2007/09-2008/12 次贷危机 2009 全球金融危机 降息 10 ...

时报图说 联储如果后 次降息周期 投表 2017- 2018 降息 3 次 2019 累计幅度 75 个基点 2019/08-2019/10 降息期间 沪指 -0.12% 2020 2020/03 新冠疫情 降息 次 累计幅度 150 个基点 2021 降息期间 沪指-6.12% 2022 2023 降息 次 2024 累计幅度 UU 个基点 2024/09-2024/12 降息期间 沪指 +24.02% 2025 年内首次降息 2025/09-? 2026 幅度 20个基点 折线为美国联邦基金目标利率走势 美国联邦基金目标利率降息周期 数据来源：Wind,选取上世纪90年代后的数据 证券时报 新媒体实验室 出品 更多精彩请登录 编辑:王智佳 高感琦 DID /△/ 证券时报/ 设计: 李 雄 （文章来源：证券时报） 美国联邦基金目标利率上限(%) 时间 2 4 10 0 8 6 1990 1991 降息 18 次 1990/07-1992/09 1992 累计幅度 525个基点 降息期间 沪指 +653.58% 1993 (A股设立初期,涨幅不具有参考性) 1994 1995 1995/07-1996/01 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on the A-share market, analyzing historical data to draw correlations between rate cuts and stock market performance [2][5]. Summary by Sections Historical Rate Cuts and A-Share Performance - From July 1990 to September 1992, the Federal Reserve cut rates 18 times, totaling a reduction of 525 basis points, during which the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) rose by 653.58% [3]. - In the period from July 1995 to January 1996, there were 3 rate cuts totaling 5 basis points, and the SSE fell by 15.52% [3]. - Between September 1998 and November 1998, there was a 75 basis point cut, with the SSE increasing by 4.91% [4]. - In 2001, the Fed cut rates 11 times, totaling 475 basis points, leading to a decline of 20.35% in the SSE [4]. - The period from November 2002 to June 2003 saw a 25 basis point cut, with the SSE decreasing by 3.60% [4]. - During the financial crisis from September 2007 to December 2008, the Fed cut rates 10 times, totaling 500 basis points, resulting in a significant drop of 63.57% in the SSE [4]. - In the recent period from August 2019 to October 2019, the Fed cut rates 2 times, totaling 50 basis points, with the SSE showing a slight decline of 0.12% [5]. - The cuts in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic totaled 150 basis points, and the SSE fell by 6.12% [5]. - The most recent cuts in 2024 are projected to total 100 basis points, with an expected increase of 24.02% in the SSE during that period [5].

兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚，真的要无眠了！美联储要降息（凌晨2点），泰勒要加班！ 先简单看看目前海外市场的表现。 美股分化 9月17日晚间，临近美联储降息关键节点，美股三大指数走势分化，道指涨超300点，纳指跳水跌约0.5%，标普500指数微跌。 中概股继续大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%。 交易员普遍预期美联储将于本周首次降息，并给出未来几个月降息幅度与节奏的指引。 市场大体押注美联储将在周三降息25个基点，并几乎确信鲍威尔会释放进一步宽松的信号，以支撑疲软的劳动力市场。 这样的预期近来助推美股再创新高。按照安排，华盛顿时间下午2点将与利率决定同时发布最新经济预测，鲍威尔将在30分钟后召开新闻 发布会。 经济学家大多预计，官员们会在"点阵图"中为今年预留两次降息，与6月预测一致。这意味着本周之后今年或仅有一次降息，落在10月或 12月。 尽管"意外"空间不小，但期权交易显示，市场押注这次反应将比平常更平稳。摩根大通的Andrew Tyler表示，最可能的情形是降息25个基 点：只要鲍威尔偏鸽，并释放循序渐进的降息信号，标普500指数或将上涨0.5%~1%。 麦格理集团的Thierry Wizman表示："考虑到数 ...