Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report highlights the tightening supply expectations for nickel due to the Indonesian government's suspension of 39 nickel mining companies, which may lead to increased market prices [24][26] - Cobalt supply is expected to tighten further as the Democratic Republic of Congo extends its export ban and shifts to a quota system starting October 16, which is likely to support cobalt prices [31][30] - The report indicates a long-term tight supply situation for antimony, which is expected to support prices, especially as domestic prices remain lower than international levels [36][34] - Lithium market shows signs of supply tightness, with domestic prices slightly down but still supported by overall demand growth [16][8] - The rare earth sector is experiencing strong export demand, and stricter controls may support future prices [9][16] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness, particularly in the Yunnan region, with limited recovery in Indonesian exports [17][10] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to resilient demand in hard alloys and special steels, despite recent price declines [12][18] - The uranium market is facing a tightening supply outlook, which is likely to support prices in the medium to long term [13][18] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt - Indonesian government has suspended 39 nickel mining companies, impacting supply expectations [24] - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [31][30] Antimony - Long-term supply tightness is expected to support antimony prices, with domestic prices lagging behind international levels [36][34] Lithium - The lithium market is experiencing supply tightness, with prices slightly down but supported by demand growth [16][8] Rare Earths - Strong export demand and stricter controls are expected to support rare earth prices [9][16] Tin - Tin prices are supported by supply tightness, particularly in Yunnan, with limited recovery in Indonesian exports [17][10] Tungsten - Resilient demand in hard alloys and special steels is expected to support tungsten prices despite recent declines [12][18] Uranium - The uranium market is facing a tightening supply outlook, likely supporting prices in the medium to long term [13][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - risk sectors like AI are showing divergence. The market risk preference has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainty. However, in the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and the main idea is to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding national debt, in August, economic data continued to slow down. The "anti - involution" policy led to a price increase, but the export may face pressure. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market may oscillate and recover in the short - term [7]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, key figures' monetary policy statements are dovish. It is recommended to go long on dips [10]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, although the Fed's statements are less dovish than expected, if the interest - rate cut progresses, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. Each metal has its own supply - demand situation, and short - term price trends vary [13][15][17]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may fall if demand fails to recover. Iron ore prices will oscillate. Glass may be bullish in the short - term, while soda ash will continue to oscillate. The black sector may face a short - term correction but may have long - term multi - allocation value [33][36][38][39][44]. - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber is recommended to be observed after the holiday. Crude oil is recommended for multi - allocation. Methanol and urea can be considered for long positions on dips. Other chemical products have different supply - demand and price trends [55][57][59][60]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trends of different products such as pigs, eggs, and grains vary, and corresponding trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand situations [80][82][84]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The state is studying measures to standardize copper smelting capacity construction. The total scale of public funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan. The China Foreign Exchange Trade System has optimized the "Swap Connect" mechanism. Shangwei New Materials will be suspended for verification [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - risk sectors are showing divergence. The short - term index faces uncertainty, but the long - term is bullish on dips [4]. National Debt - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. The central bank's deputy governor proposed measures to expand the application scenarios of the Hong Kong RMB bond market [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: Economic data in August was weak. The "anti - involution" policy affected exports. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market may oscillate and recover in the short - term [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver prices rose. US economic data exceeded expectations, and the market's recession expectation eased. Fed Chairman Powell's statement implied possible policy adjustments [8][9]. - **Strategy**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, key figures' statements are dovish. It is recommended to go long on dips [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Due to strong US employment and durable goods data, the US dollar index rebounded, and copper prices fell back. LME and domestic copper inventories changed, and the import loss of domestic copper spot increased [12]. - **Strategy**: The Fed's hawkish statement may put short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the interest - rate cut progresses, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic social inventories decreased, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. LME aluminum inventories decreased, and the basis changed [14]. - **Strategy**: Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, aluminum prices have strong support below as the holiday approaches [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose. Domestic and foreign zinc inventories decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio weakened [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The surplus of zinc ore has eased. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector cooled. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be weak in the short - term [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. Domestic and foreign lead inventories decreased, and the basis changed [18]. - **Strategy**: The shortage of raw materials suppresses the start - up of primary smelting, while the start - up of secondary smelting recovers. Downstream demand increases, and it is expected that Shanghai lead will be strong in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of nickel ore and nickel iron was stable, and the price of MHP increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Although refined nickel inventory pressure drags down nickel prices, in the long - term, there are positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. Domestic and foreign inventories changed. The supply of tin concentrate was tight, and demand was in the peak season [21]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. It is recommended to observe, and the price will continue to oscillate [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain the same. The spot is tight in the peak season, but the supply increase expectation suppresses the upside. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose. Due to a strike in Guinea, the supply risk of ore increased, and the import window opened [24]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore disturbances may have a limited short - term impact. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change. It is recommended to observe [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract rose. Spot prices were stable, and inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: Domestic steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, but consumption has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract rose. The downstream is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and inventory changes [29]. - **Strategy**: The peak - season characteristics are not obvious, and there is delivery pressure. The price is supported by the cost of scrap aluminum [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The registered warehouse receipts and positions of the main contracts changed [32]. - **Strategy**: The commodity market was positive, but the demand for steel was weak. If demand fails to recover, steel prices may fall [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore rose. The spot price and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy**: Overseas iron - ore shipments decreased, and demand increased. Port and steel - mill inventories changed. Iron - ore prices will oscillate [35][36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market Information**: The glass main contract rose. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased [37]. - **Glass Strategy**: Six departments banned new flat - glass production capacity, and prices rose in the short - term. However, demand is weak. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term [38]. - **Soda Ash Market Information**: The soda - ash main contract rose. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased [39]. - **Soda Ash Strategy**: The domestic soda - ash market is stable, with limited price fluctuations. It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The market was affected by policies [40][41][42]. - **Strategy**: The Fed's interest - rate cut and "anti - involution" sentiment affect the black sector. Although there is a short - term correction risk, there may be long - term multi - allocation value [43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose. The spot price and basis changed [45]. - **Industrial Silicon Strategy**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon has not changed significantly. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand and policy changes [46][47]. - **Polysilicon Market Information**: The price of polysilicon was stable. The spot price and basis changed [48]. - **Polysilicon Strategy**: The polysilicon price is affected by policies and fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weak. There were factors such as expected state reserves release, changes in the position structure, and weather impacts [51]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, it is a long - term idea. In the short - term, it is recommended to observe and look for opportunities after the holiday [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of INE crude oil and related refined products rose. US inventory data changed [56]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended for multi - allocation, as the current price is supported by fundamentals, and there is upside potential if geopolitical premiums return [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol changed. The basis and spread changed [58][59]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has improved. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea was stable. The basis and spread changed [60]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is recommended to go long on dips at low prices [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene rose. The basis and spread changed [61]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The price of styrene may stop falling [62]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC rose. The cost, supply, and demand changed, and inventory changed [63][64]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply is high, and the inventory is expected to increase in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of risks [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [68]. - **Strategy**: The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is under pressure. It is recommended to observe [69][70]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of PX rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has maintenance. It is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to observe [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [73]. - **Strategy**: The market expects favorable policies. The price may oscillate upward [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [75][76]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is high, and the demand is seasonally rebounding. The inventory pressure is high. There is no obvious short - term contradiction [77]. Agricultural Products Pig - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly fell. The supply exceeded demand before the holiday [79]. - **Strategy**: The spot price is falling, and the futures price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage [80]. Egg - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable with a few declines. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [81]. - **Strategy**: The spot price is expected to fall, and the near - month futures price is weak. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and buy the far - month contract after a decline [82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of US soybeans rose slightly. The domestic soybean - meal price and inventory changed. Argentina's export tax policy affected the market [83]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the global supply is loose. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [84]. Edible Oils - **Market Information**: The exports and production of Malaysian palm oil changed. Indonesia's palm - oil data changed. India bought a large amount of soybean oil. Domestic oil prices rebounded [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected increase in demand support the oil price. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell back. The production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [88]. - **Strategy**: Affected by imports and production increases, the sugar price is expected to fall. It is recommended to observe before the National Day [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weak. The spot price and inventory changed [90]. - **Strategy**: The downstream start - up rate is weak, and there is an expected increase in production. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, but there is support below. It is recommended to observe [91].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global demand for construction machinery is expected to decline by 3% in 2023 and 5% in 2024 according to Guojin Securities based on Komatsu's financial report [1] - Overseas demand has been declining for two and a half years as of June this year, indicating that inventory destocking is nearing its end [1] - There is optimism regarding a recovery in overseas demand driven by a resurgence in demand from Europe and the United States amid a rate-cutting cycle [1]

紫金矿业（02899）早盘涨超6%，截至发稿，股价上涨5.87%，现报31.38港元，成交额20.74亿港元。 紫金矿业此前发布公告，公司收到通知，受超强台风"桦加沙"影响，紫金黄金国际原定于9月24日结束的香港公开发售登记事项将推迟1天完成，预计紫金黄金国际股份在香港联交所挂牌并开始 东方证券发布研报称，25年9月美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，市场预计连续降息周期或开启。降息周期的开启有助于黄金、铜等金属迎来上涨行情，看好公司铜金业务实现 责任编辑：卢昱君 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on black building materials dated September 25, 2025, covering various commodities such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2: Market Quotes Steel - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,164 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.285%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 263,806 tons, a decrease of 3,584 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.882224 million lots, an increase of 812 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,357 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.508%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 34,559 tons, a decrease of 292 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.367761 million lots, an increase of 668 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.12% (+1.00). The open interest changed by -7,511 lots to 539,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 856,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 39.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.72% [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On September 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) continued a small rebound, closing up 0.58% at 5,916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 74 yuan/ton over the futures [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) also continued to rebound, closing up 0.77% at 5,742 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 58 yuan/ton over the futures [9] Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,020 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.06% (+95). The weighted contract open interest changed by -1,424 lots to 508,298 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 180 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of -120 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12] Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,380 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.23% (+1,120). The weighted contract open interest changed by -2,089 lots to 250,365 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N-type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1,120 yuan/ton for the main contract [15] Glass - On Wednesday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,237 yuan/ton, up 4.56% (+54). The price of large plates in North China was 1,160 yuan, up 10 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,150 yuan, up 10. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million boxes, a decrease of 675,000 boxes (-1.10%). In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions increased by 94,955 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 43,450 lots [18] Soda Ash - On Wednesday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,307 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+34). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,217 yuan, up 34. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 41,900 tons (-1.10%), including 1.0061 million tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 28,400 tons, and 749,500 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 13,500 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions decreased by 2,046 lots, and the top 20 short positions increased by 23,979 lots [20] Group 3: Strategy Views Steel - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, the central bank will maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools. In terms of exports, the volume increased slightly last week but remained weak. Fundamentally, rebar production declined, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure eased marginally; hot-rolled coil production increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coil is weak, and the peak-season demand is not strong. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, rebar demand remains weak, and hot-rolled coil, although having some resilience, is still weak overall. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face downward risk. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [3] Iron Ore - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments of the three major mainstream mines all decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non-mainstream countries also decreased month-on-month. The nearby arrivals increased month-on-month. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production was 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons, with both blast furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability rate of steel mills has been declining for several weeks. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased significantly. Some inventory may continue to be transferred to the plant before the National Day. In terms of terminal data, the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to increase, and the inventory slope slowed down. The apparent demand for rebar increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Currently, the pressure on the raw material end from downstream still needs to be observed. Fundamentally, short-term pig iron production remains strong, and before steel mills reduce production, iron ore prices still have support. Macroscopically, after the China-US presidential call, the market sentiment is relatively positive; the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" continues to increase the supply and price stability of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal, reducing the impact of speculative sentiment on prices. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and the inventory depletion speed [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot shows that there may be two more rate cuts this year, indicating that the US has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Although the rate cut was in line with expectations, Powell's statement was hawkish, leading to a significant decline in non-ferrous metal prices, and the Wenhua Commodity Index also returned to a volatile state. However, the black sector continued to strengthen. On the one hand, overseas interest rate cuts have created room for domestic policy implementation, enhancing the market's expectation of future economic stimulus; on the other hand, the "anti-involution" sentiment has resurfaced recently, driving the raw material end such as coking coal and ferroalloys to perform relatively actively. However, with the approaching of the peak season and the downstream's need to replenish inventory before the National Day holiday, the actual demand is still relatively weak, especially in the building materials sector, where the demand has not shown peak-season characteristics. Steel mills are still maintaining high-intensity production driven by profits, and pig iron production continues to remain above 2.4 million tons. High supply and relatively weak demand have led to a continuous inverse seasonal accumulation of steel inventory, putting pressure on prices in reality [10] - In the short term, affected by the real demand, the black sector may face a downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, the statement of the high-level that "China still has sufficient fiscal policy space," and the opening of domestic policy space after the US enters the interest rate cut cycle, the black sector may gradually become more cost-effective for long positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid-October. Compared with the short-term correction risk, looking for long opportunities after the price pullback may be a better choice [11] - In the case of manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, it is observed that the port inventory of manganese ore has been at a low level recently, and the price of manganese ore has been relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens according to the above logic, attention should be paid to whether there are any sudden disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may become the driving force for manganese silicon to launch its own market. Otherwise, it is expected that manganese silicon will be difficult to have an independent strong market in the absence of major contradictions and will follow the black sector market [11] - For ferrosilicon, there are no obvious contradictions and driving forces in its supply and demand fundamentals, and it is also likely to follow the black sector market, with relatively low operation cost-effectiveness [11] Industrial Silicon - The sentiment in the commodity market improved yesterday, and the industrial silicon futures rebounded. From the perspective of the futures price trend, the price has experienced short-term sharp fluctuations and is relatively unstable, so risk control should be noted. Looking back at the fundamentals, there have been no significant changes in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. After several weeks of continuous growth, the production has slowed down for the first time, but the weekly production is still at a relatively high level close to the same period last year. In the downstream, the current operating rate of polysilicon is relatively high since the industry's self-discipline production control. Whether the high-operating-rate enterprises will start to reduce production in the future is uncertain, but in the short term, it can still support the demand for industrial silicon. The production of organic silicon DMC continues to be at a high level compared to the same period. The explicit inventory of industrial silicon is generally at a high level, and the marginal depletion amplitude is limited. Compared with downstream polysilicon, the relative valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the polysilicon futures price has been running at a relatively high level for a long time, providing upward room for the price of industrial silicon; at the same time, the "anti-involution" policy leaves room for price improvement in the future. However, for the price to be strongly supported, fundamental improvement is still required. In the short term, the market is affected by capital sentiment, with rapid entry and exit, and the futures price returns to a volatile state. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes [13][14] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price continues to be dominated by policy narratives, and the short-term market focus remains on the capacity integration policy and the downstream price pass-through progress. Fundamentally, some of the previous inventory has been transferred to the downstream of the industrial chain, and the de-stocking space for the entire industry is limited, which depends on the maintenance situation of the current high-operating-rate enterprises. In terms of price, the previous spot price increase was relatively smooth in the middle and front of the downstream, but there is still a stalemate in the component link, indicating that the actual terminal demand has not significantly improved. Currently, the establishment time of the platform company is uncertain, and the announcements of listed silicon enterprises also show that the expected verification cannot be asserted. However, before the final implementation and when there are obstacles in the component link price pass-through, the futures price may experience a phased decline due to the lack of actual progress for a long time. In the short term, the polysilicon price will continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of decline if the expectations are not fulfilled as scheduled. The intraday price of polysilicon fluctuates greatly and changes rapidly, so attention should be paid to position and risk control, and attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark for the main contract. At the same time, the authenticity of sudden news should be carefully verified [16] Glass - In the afternoon, six departments issued a document to strictly prohibit the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. At the same time, some enterprises announced price increases for glass spot, boosting the futures price to a short-term high. However, the overall terminal demand is still weak, and downstream procurement is cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. In terms of supply, the adjustment of production lines is limited, and the market supply is relatively abundant. Enterprises mostly maintain stable prices for sales, and actual transactions are flexibly adjusted. The regional inventory performance shows obvious differentiation, with good de-stocking effects in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still face certain inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy trends, and the short-term view is relatively bullish [19] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with local narrow fluctuations and limited overall price changes. In terms of production, the operation of the devices is generally stable, and the load of individual enterprises is adjusted. Among them, the Shandong Haitian device has resumed production, and Tongbai Haijing also plans to gradually resume production in the near future, and the industry output is expected to increase slightly. The demand side shows a flat performance, and downstream enterprises still replenish inventory on an as-needed basis, and most transactions revolve around low-priced goods. Overall, it is expected that the short-term soda ash market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with limited price fluctuation range [21][23]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surpassed 1100 yuan per gram, reflecting a significant increase in both international and domestic gold prices, with expectations for continued upward momentum in the fourth quarter [1][2][12]. Price Trends - As of September 24, 2023, the price of pure gold jewelry from the brand Chow Sang Sang reached 1105 yuan per gram, while another brand, Chow Tai Fook, reported prices close to 1100 yuan at 1098 yuan per gram [3][5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract price hit a historical high of 856.80 yuan per gram on September 24, marking a nearly 10% increase since September and a cumulative rise of nearly 40% for the year [8]. Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a shift in market sentiment following the release of poor U.S. non-farm payroll data on August 1, which led to a reassessment of interest rate expectations. The market is now anticipating a resumption of the rate-cutting cycle [10]. - Additional factors contributing to the price increase include President Trump's comments regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and potential changes in its leadership, which have heightened market volatility and increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [10][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upward trend in gold prices will continue into the fourth quarter, driven by ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership. The market has not fully priced in the anticipated rate cuts, suggesting further room for growth [12]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations that U.S. debt levels and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support higher gold prices [12].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surpassed 1100 RMB per gram, reflecting a continuous rise in both international and domestic gold prices, with expectations for further increases in the fourth quarter [1][2][11]. Price Trends - As of September 24, 2023, the price of pure gold jewelry from the brand Chow Sang Sang reached 1105 RMB per gram, while another brand, Chow Tai Fook, reported a price of 1098 RMB per gram [3][5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract price hit a record high of 856.80 RMB per gram, marking a nearly 10% increase since September and approximately 40% year-to-date [6][7]. Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a shift in market sentiment following poor U.S. non-farm payroll data released on August 1, which led to a reevaluation of interest rate expectations. The market is now anticipating a resumption of the interest rate cut cycle, particularly after the dovish stance taken by the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting [9][11]. - Additional factors influencing gold prices include concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially following President Trump's comments regarding potential changes in Fed leadership, which have heightened market volatility [9][11]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upward trend in gold prices will continue into the fourth quarter, driven by ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership. The long-term outlook suggests that factors such as U.S. debt levels and geopolitical uncertainties will further support gold prices [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Precious metals maintained a high - slope upward trend on Tuesday. Short - term positive factors include frequent hacker attacks on cryptocurrencies and the risk of the US government shutdown. In the upward trend dominated by the interest rate cut cycle, the macro - narrative of the monetary attribute amplifies price elasticity, and the market is not in a crowded stage, so precious metal prices may continue to rise with a high slope in the short term [1][3] - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core positive driver for gold. With mild inflation and weak employment, the Fed's interest rate cut is unobstructed. The Fed Watch shows that the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts within the year has expanded to 3 times. After the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, dovish expectations are expected to continue to drive gold prices up. The change of the Fed chairperson is approaching, and Trump's control over the Fed is expected to strengthen, increasing the imagination of long - term interest rate cuts and strengthening the macro - narrative of the decline in the US dollar's credit. The target price of US dollar - denominated gold within the year is maintained at $4000 [3] - Silver trends follow gold. The US fundamentals have not shown a rapid decline, and soft - landing trading dominates the market. The suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly slowed down, and the silver price is expected to follow the upward trend of gold, challenging the historical high of around $50 in 2011 in the first and second quarters [3] - The weekly range of spot London gold is [3600, 3900], and that of spot London silver is [41, 47] [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Key Information - The US current account deficit in the second quarter was $251.3 billion, the lowest since the third quarter of 2023, better than the expected deficit of $256.3 billion, and the previous value was revised from a deficit of $450.2 billion to $439.8 billion [2] - Fed's new governor Milan proposed that the benchmark interest rate is much higher than the reasonable level and should be actively and significantly cut. He believes there is nearly a 2 - percentage - point space for interest rate cuts, but this view isolates him within the Fed [2] - The risk of the US government shutdown is approaching. Trump will meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries at the White House. Lawmakers emphasized the importance of dealing with rising costs, including the medical crisis caused by the Republicans [2] Price Index - On September 23, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index was 2220.36, down 0.73%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2492.22, down 0.75%; the industrial products index was 2229.14, down 0.76% [43] - The precious metals index on September 23, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.82%, a 5 - day increase of 2.66%, a 1 - month increase of 9.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 35.23% [45]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18, marking the beginning of a monetary easing cycle, which has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like silver, with the main silver futures contract rising nearly 5% since September 19 [1][3] - The easing of liquidity is expected to enhance the appeal of precious metals, and the rise in silver prices may just be the beginning, as industrial commodity prices typically experience greater volatility and opportunities in a rate-cutting environment [3] - The futures market offers T+0 trading, margin systems, and the ability to operate in both directions, allowing for flexible capture of market movements across over 140 futures and options products, including financials, precious metals, and agricultural products [3] Group 2 - A competition titled "Economic Grain Cup - National Futures Simulation Championship" is being organized in collaboration with COFCO Futures, aimed at helping participants optimize asset allocation and seize market fluctuations during the easing cycle [3] - Participants can register for the competition to receive 1 million simulated capital, with a dual evaluation mechanism for weekly and monthly competitions, offering multiple rewards [5] - The competition is positioned as a crucial opportunity for traders to learn derivative tools, especially during a critical period of high volatility in the A-share market [5]

目前，国内铝价运行至年内高位区间，最高已触及21000元／吨一线，较年内低点上涨约10%，四季度铝价是顺势 走高，还是承压回落呢？ 国内进入传统旺季 8月份，国家统计局公布的制造业PMI指数为49.4%，环比上升0.1个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体继续保持扩 张。9月份数据还没有公布，但前瞻指标9月EPMI（战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数）环比上行4.6个百分点，至 52.4%，环比上行幅度大致持平于季节性均值水平，旺季特征显现。 相关数据显示，截至9月18日当周，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率环比增加0.1个百分点，至62.2%，与去年同期 相比下降1.3个百分点。分板块来看，原生合金方面，头部企业开工率平稳，但中小企业受需求影响开工率回调； 铝板带样本企业开工率微降，主要因为高铝价抑制下游备货需求，但消费韧性支撑排产稳定，而废铝涨价或倒逼 企业高价采购，预计短期开工率持稳或小幅波动；铝线缆开工率持稳，国庆假期临近或推动下游补库，需关注假 期停工影响；型材开工率小幅回升，建筑型材需求疲软，但工业型材受汽车、光伏等订单支撑；铝箔开工率高位 持稳，包装箔需求维持刚性，但增长乏力，新能源电池箔成亮点，有望冲击55万吨 ...