1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver [4] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Non - ferrous metals (Copper) [4] - **Bearish**: Crude oil, Polyolefins, Cotton [8][10] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Steel and ore (Rebar, Hot - rolled coil), Soda ash [6][8] - **Sideways**: Stock index, Treasury bonds, Non - ferrous metals (Aluminum, Nickel), Lithium carbonate, Silicon energy, Coal and coke, Glass, Methanol, Rubber, Palm oil [1][4][6] 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term sentiment fluctuates, but the long - term driving factors remain unchanged [1]. - Different varieties have different fundamentals. For example, precious metals are supported by safe - haven demand and the Fed's dovish signal, while industrial products are affected by supply - demand relationships and policy regulations [4][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index and Treasury Bonds - **Stock Index**: The A - share market showed a high - opening and low - closing trend, with the ChiNext board leading the decline. The overall trading volume increased slightly. Sino - US trade frictions and the Fed's possible interest rate cut affect market sentiment. The stock index is in a sideways pattern, but there are opportunities for long - position layout in the medium - to - long term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market was strong in the afternoon. Sino - US trade relations are uncertain, and the Fed's dovish attitude strengthens the interest - rate cut expectation. The money market remains loose, and the bond market is in a sideways pattern [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Sino - US relations are tense, and the Fed Chairman's dovish signal boosts the price of gold. The short - term squeeze logic of silver amplifies market fluctuations. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and add new positions on pullbacks [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US trade negotiations are unclear, but the supply of copper concentrates in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight, supporting copper prices. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and pay attention to the progress of trade negotiations [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Sino - US trade relations are uncertain, and the Fed's dovish attitude weakens the US dollar. Alumina prices are falling, and the supply of Shanghai aluminum is restricted. The overall market is in a sideways pattern, with alumina showing a bearish fundamental pattern [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is loose, but there are potential risks. The demand for nickel products is improving marginally. The short - term price is mainly affected by macro factors and is in a sideways pattern [4]. Chemicals and Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The actual supply increase is limited, and the current fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain in a dual - prosperous pattern. The overall market is in a sideways pattern, and the progress of mining enterprises in Yichun needs to be tracked [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There are rumors of policy regulation on photovoltaic production capacity, and the demand for industrial silicon may be reduced. The price may continue to weaken, and it is recommended to hold existing short positions [6]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply surplus expectation continues, and the upward driving force is weak. The price may remain weak [8]. - **Methanol**: There is demand support, and it is recommended to sell put options [2][8]. Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is accumulating. The risk of negative feedback in the steel industry chain is increasing. It is recommended to hold short positions and sell call options [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply and demand are both strong, but the inventory is increasing passively. The risk of negative feedback in the steel industry chain is rising. It is recommended to hold short positions [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand has support, but the risk of steel mills' production cuts is increasing. The supply is also affected by negotiations. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6]. Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline, and the price is expected to remain sideways. The demand for coke may weaken, and the price is also in a sideways pattern [8]. Building Materials - **Soda Ash**: The supply exceeds demand, and the industry is accumulating inventory. It is recommended to hold short positions and sell on rebounds [8]. - **Glass**: The inventory pressure is high, and the probability of supply contraction is reduced. It is recommended to sell call options [8]. Agricultural Products - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyolefins is excessive, and the price has been falling. It is recommended to hold long - short spread positions [10]. - **Cotton**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price may have limited room for rebound [10]. - **Rubber**: The raw material supply is increasing seasonally, but the demand remains supported. The price is in a sideways pattern with limited downside space [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term price is affected by macro and market factors, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently following the broader market in a volatile pattern, with no significant changes in the fundamentals recently. There are expectations of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs repeatedly adjusts risk preferences [3]. - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia has announced regulations for the 2026 quota application. The overall quota in 2025 is somewhat excessive, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews [3]. - The new energy sector is entering the peak season, with high downstream procurement demand. The current quotes have been rising for several consecutive weeks, the market circulation is tight, inventories are low, and there are still inquiries, which may remain strong [3]. - The price of ferronickel has insufficient upward momentum, and the overall center of gravity has significantly declined. It may operate weakly under the pressure of stainless - steel profits and weak demand. If ferronickel loses its support, the downward space for the downstream may expand [3]. - The spot trading of stainless steel has improved slightly, leading to a small rebound in the futures market. However, the sentiment of a lackluster peak season is strong. Currently, stainless steel has a large amount of inventory accumulation, and the upward momentum is insufficient compared with the previous continuous destocking cycle. The center of gravity of stainless steel may move down slightly, but export is favorable due to WTO rulings and certification exemptions [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel (Shanghai Futures Exchange)**: The price range is predicted to be 11,800 - 12,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.79% and a historical percentile of 5.9% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month NI contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month SS contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3]. Market Data Nickel - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,180 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 120,860 yuan/ton, down 0.39%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 121,340 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the LME nickel 3M contract is 15,230 US dollars/ton, down 0.34% [6]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 60,391 lots, down 12.28%; the open interest is 50,388 lots, down 14.10% [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 27,026 tons, up 0.59% [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is - 240 yuan/ton, down 52.0% [6]. Stainless Steel - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,665 yuan/ton, up 1%; the stainless - steel continuous - one contract is 12,595 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the stainless - steel continuous - two contract is 12,695 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the stainless - steel continuous - three contract is 12,780 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 126,078 lots, up 1.04%; the open interest is 188,332 lots, down 4.98% [7]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 74,497 tons, down 0.16% [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is 775 yuan/ton, up 4.73% [7]. Inventory Data - **Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel**: 47,708 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **LME Nickel Inventory**: 250,476 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **Stainless - Steel Social Inventory**: 952.6 tons, an increase of 47 tons [7]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: 29,062 tons, a decrease of 174 tons [7]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [6]. - The Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [6]. - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter [6]. - The WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal [5][6]. - The exemption of the Indian BIS certification is extended to the end of the year [5][6]. Negative Factors - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6]. - The center of gravity of ferronickel has moved down, and the bottom support has loosened [6]. - Stainless steel has re - entered the inventory accumulation stage [6]. - The stainless - steel market shows a lackluster peak season, and the demand recovery is less than expected [6].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have rebounded strongly, reaching historical highs, driven by market expectations of interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Gold Price Performance - On Monday night, international gold prices surged, with London spot gold and Comex futures reaching $4,381.484 per ounce and $4,398.0 per ounce, respectively, both marking historical highs [1] - Gold ETFs showed strong performance, with the gold ETF (518680) opening higher and peaking with a gain of over 2.5%, currently up 1.87%. Since September, it has accumulated a rise of over 26% and nearly 67% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and ETF Growth - As of October 20, gold ETFs have seen a continuous inflow of funds for 10 days, with a net inflow of 650 million yuan. Year-to-date, the fund has increased by 379 million shares and 384 million yuan, bringing the total shares to 510 million and the total scale to 4.95 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Market Influences - Recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggest an end to balance sheet reduction, alongside signs of a weakening job market, which have strengthened market expectations for an interest rate cut in October, with the probability now at 97% [1] - Ongoing Sino-U.S. trade tensions, exposure of credit risks in U.S. regional banks, and the London silver short squeeze have collectively boosted demand for safe-haven assets, providing strong support for the prices of gold and silver [1]

Core Insights - The gold sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the CSI Gold Industry Index rising by 1.70% and key stocks like Zhaojin Mining and Zijin Mining showing significant gains [1] - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a notable increase in both scale and shares, indicating growing investor interest and confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is contributing to economic uncertainty, which is further driving demand for gold and other precious metals [3] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Gold Industry Index (931238) increased by 1.70%, with Zhaojin Mining (01818) up 4.13% and Zijin Mining (02899) up 3.82% [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) rose by 1.91%, with a 10.48% increase over the past month [1][2] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a scale increase of 320 million yuan over the past week, ranking it among the top in its category [2] - The ETF's shares reached a new high of 6.8 billion, reflecting strong investor interest [2] - Continuous net inflows into the Gold Stock ETF over the past eight days totaled 1.965 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 583 million yuan [2] Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant delays in economic data releases, increasing market uncertainty and boosting safe-haven demand for gold [3] - Political and economic concerns are identified as key drivers for the recent rebound in gold prices following a decline [3] - Expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen to 97%, further supporting gold prices [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists [1]. - For the main varieties of financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall reference view is to oscillate. Short - term interest rate cut expectations have cooled, but long - term policy easing expectations still support bond futures. Also, the weakening of external risks has reduced the safe - haven demand for bonds, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. In general, bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations in the short and long terms [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) have an intraday view of oscillating with a slight upward bias and a medium - term view of oscillating. The reference view is to oscillate. The GDP growth in the first three quarters reached 5.2%, reducing the short - term need for interest rate cuts. The unchanged LPR in October also cooled short - term interest rate cut expectations. However, long - term domestic demand problems still require a loose monetary environment, and the easing expectation supports bond futures. The weakening of external risks has reduced the safe - haven demand for bonds, leading to insufficient upward momentum. So, short - term bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a broad rally on October 20, with major indices rising, driven by strong performance in large tech stocks, particularly Apple, which saw a nearly 4% increase, indicating positive market sentiment and consumer demand for new products [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.12% to close at 46,706.58 points, the S&P 500 increased by 1.07% to 6,735.13 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.37% to finish at 22,990.54 points [1]. - The U.S. tech giants index increased by 1.44%, with notable individual stock performances including Apple up nearly 4%, Meta up over 2%, and Tesla, Amazon, and Google-C each rising over 1% [3]. Group 2: Apple Inc. Insights - Apple’s stock reached a new high for 2025, with analysts noting stronger-than-expected consumer demand for the new iPhone series, leading to an increase in upgrade cycle expectations [3]. - According to Counterpoint Research, iPhone 17 series sales in the first 10 days post-launch in China and the U.S. were 14% higher than the iPhone 16 during the same period [3]. - Loop Capital upgraded Apple’s rating from hold to buy, raising its target price from $226 to $315 per share due to the anticipated rebound in demand [3]. Group 3: Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks also saw a positive trend, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 2.39% and the Chinese tech leaders index increasing by 2.31% [3]. - Individual stocks such as iQIYI surged over 8%, Century Internet rose nearly 7%, and TAL Education increased by over 6% [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - Multiple factors contributed to the positive sentiment in the U.S. stock market, including expectations that the U.S. government may end its shutdown and efforts to mitigate trade tensions [4]. - The strong start to the third-quarter earnings season further bolstered investor confidence, with widespread anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in late October [4]. Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - In the commodities market, international precious metal futures saw gains, with COMEX gold futures rising by 3.82% to $4,374.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 2.59% to $51.40 per ounce [4]. - Conversely, crude oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down 0.38% to $56.93 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.57% to $60.94 per barrel, attributed to rising global oil production and slowing economic growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - After a nine-week rally, gold prices experienced a significant drop, with international market prices falling by $152 per ounce, leading to a decline in domestic gold prices as well [1][2] Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to easing trade tensions and a recovery in global risk appetite, prompting investors to withdraw from safe-haven assets like gold and silver [2] - The adjustment in margin requirements for silver and gold futures by exchanges has forced some long positions to reduce their holdings, contributing to the price drop [2][3] Investor Sentiment - There is a divide in investor sentiment, with some taking profits after the recent surge while others view the price drop as an opportunity to buy [5][6] - Long-term investors continue to accumulate gold, as evidenced by increased holdings in ETFs, despite short-term volatility [8] Supply and Demand Factors - Recent data shows a tightening of gold and silver inventories, with significant outflows from COMEX silver and increases in SPDR gold ETF holdings [8] - The World Gold Council noted that central banks have shown a tendency to buy on dips, indicating ongoing support for gold prices despite short-term fluctuations [8] Risk Management - Exchanges and banks have issued warnings regarding market volatility, advising investors to manage their positions carefully amid the current uncertainty [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely monitoring delayed inflation data to assess the outlook for U.S. interest rates, especially in light of the government shutdown impacting key data availability [1] Group 1: Inflation Data Impact - The inflation data, scheduled for release on Friday, is critical for evaluating the future of U.S. interest rates [1] - If the inflation readings meet or fall below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for deeper policy easing in 2025-2026, putting downward pressure on yields and the dollar [1] - Only significantly better-than-expected data could meaningfully challenge the current expectations for a series of rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is critical for assessing future interest rate prospects, especially in light of the government shutdown impacting data availability [1] Group 1: Inflation Data Impact - Investors in the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds will closely analyze the delayed inflation data set to be released on Friday to gauge the interest rate outlook [1] - If the inflation readings meet or fall below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for deeper policy easing in 2025-2026, putting downward pressure on yields and the dollar [1] - Only significantly better-than-expected data could materially challenge the current expectations for a series of rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - After a nine-week rally, gold prices have experienced a significant drop, indicating a potential short-term correction rather than a trend reversal [1][2][5]. Market Performance - As of October 20, the Shanghai gold futures contract closed at 970 CNY, reflecting a daily decline of 1.63%, while silver fell by 3.99% to 11,742 CNY per kilogram [2][4]. - The recent drop in gold prices was influenced by a sharp decline in international market prices, which fell by 152 USD per ounce over the weekend [1]. Market Sentiment - The easing of geopolitical tensions and trade tariff concerns has led to a recovery in global risk appetite, prompting investors to withdraw from safe-haven assets like gold and silver [3][4]. - Despite the short-term sell-off, analysts believe that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and increasing investment demand [2][5]. Investor Behavior - There is a divide in investor sentiment, with some taking profits after the recent surge while others view the price drop as an opportunity to buy [6][7][8]. - Long-term funds continue to accumulate gold, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings increasing by 30.05 tons to 1,047.21 tons as of October 18 [9]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - COMEX gold inventories decreased by 25.9 tons to 1,216.4 tons, while silver inventories fell by 404.5 tons to 15,846 tons, indicating tightening supply conditions [9]. - The World Gold Council noted that despite concerns over overbought conditions, central banks have shown a tendency to buy on dips, suggesting sustained interest in gold [9].