就在白银工业需求爆发的同时，金融市场送来"东风"。RJ Futures分析师Bob Haberkorn直言："白银此轮上涨与美联储降息预期高度相关。"CME数据显示， 市场对美联储12月降息的预期概率已飙升至87.6%，这种强烈预期让美元承压，贵金属集体起舞。 SILVER Box 11 40 : TECHAN 更为关键的是，白银对利率变化的敏感度远超黄金。兴业期货分析指出："白银市场规模较小，价格弹性更高，在降息周期中往往表现出更强的爆发力。"当 前金银比仍处于历史高位，这意味着白银仍有巨大的补涨空间。 警惕高波动下的投资风险 你知道吗？就在黄金屡创新高的同时，白银这个"穷人的黄金"已经悄然完成了一场史诗级逆袭！年内涨幅高达110%，价格突破60美元关口，这种疯狂涨势 背后究竟藏着怎样的财富密码？ 双重属性引爆白银牛市 当全球投资者还在为黄金疯狂时，白银以其独特的"工业+金融"双重属性悄然开启了暴走模式。与黄金不同，白银不仅是避险资产，更是光伏、AI服务器等 新兴产业的关键原料。南华期货研究院周骥指出："光伏用银量占比持续攀升，AI设备用银需求爆发，这种工业刚需为银价提供了坚实支撑。" 数据显示，全球白银库 ...

12月10日盘中，在岸人民币对美元汇率持续上涨，逼近7.06元关口，创2024年10月10日以来新高。Wind 数据显示，截至14:45，在岸人民币对美元汇率报7.0613元，较前收盘价上涨80个基点，盘中最高报 7.0605元。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，11月下旬以来，美元指数走软叠加央行中间价报价释放的引导信号， 人民币汇率逐步升至年内新高并实现"三价合一"。展望后市，短期来看，市场对于美联储12月的降息预 期已充分定价，国内政策对经济的提振效果有待显现，预计年内人民币有望偏强运行。 离岸人民币对美元汇率再次升破7.06元关口。Wind数据显示，截至14:45，离岸人民币对美元汇率报 7.0583元，较前收盘价上涨19个基点，盘中最高报7.0571元。 ...

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged significantly, surpassing $60 per ounce, marking a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of over 110%, compared to gold's 60% rise [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements - On October 9, silver prices reached $60.83 per ounce during trading, closing at $60.65, reflecting a daily increase of 4.4% [1] - Year-to-date, silver has outperformed gold, with silver's price increase being more than double that of gold [1][2] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve policy changes, with a potential interest rate cut anticipated in early 2026, leading to a decline in real interest rates [2][3] 2. Increased industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector and AI-related industries, which has driven up orders for silver [2][3] 3. Supply constraints from key mining regions, raising concerns about future silver supply [3][4] Group 3: Investment Behavior - The rising silver prices have led to increased interest in silver investments, although many investors are cautious due to high prices [5] - The current high recovery price for silver, which is significantly higher than gold, has led to a higher loss rate for silver when reselling [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The divergence in performance between gold and silver is attributed to their differing market drivers, with silver benefiting from industrial demand and supply disruptions, while gold's price has stabilized due to already priced-in geopolitical risks [4][6] - The current market structure for silver, including high ETF holdings and speculative positions, may amplify price volatility [7]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has increased by 2.9% in the past 24 hours, reversing a 30-day decline of -10.44% and continuing a mild upward trend over the past week (+2.13%) [1] - Key factors driving this market movement include expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, short-squeeze events, and positive news regarding exchanges and partnerships [1][2][3] Market Performance - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at approximately $92,485, with a 24-hour increase of 2.65%. Key support and resistance levels are identified [7] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at around $3,319, with a 24-hour increase of 6.57%. Critical price levels are highlighted for potential upward movement [7] - BNB is priced at about $893, with a 24-hour increase of 0.47%. The price action is contingent on maintaining above a specific support level [7] - Solana (SOL) is priced at approximately $139, with a 24-hour increase of 5.23%. Key price levels are noted for potential upward movement [8] Market Sentiment - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is approximately $3.16 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $147.31 billion. Current market sentiment is at 25 (fear), indicating a cautious approach among investors [8] - The dominance of Bitcoin is at 58.5%, while altcoins represent a lower index of 18/100, reflecting a clear risk-off sentiment [8] Liquidation Events - In the past 24 hours, a total of 112,592 traders were liquidated, amounting to $420 million, with significant losses in both long and short positions [5] Top Gainers and Losers - Top gainers include G (up 38%), AXL (up 24%), and LUNA (up 24%) [10] - Top losers include ALLO (down 15%), RDNT (down 13%), and WIN (down 8%) [10]

Industry Investment Rating - Kenanga Research maintains a "neutral" view on the plantation sector [7] Core View - The report presents overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products. It also provides important fundamental information such as weather in major production areas, international supply - demand data from USDA reports, and macro - economic news both internationally and domestically. These factors collectively influence the investment opportunities and risks in the agricultural commodity market [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Overnight Market - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for commodities like Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. Exchange rate data for multiple currencies are also given [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes are presented for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions. CNF quotes and CNF premiums for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - Brazil's soybean - growing regions will have widespread rainfall, which is beneficial for crop growth. Argentina's main soybean - producing areas have good soil moisture, but some areas face drought risks [4] International Supply - Demand - USDA estimates for the 2025/26 palm oil season show a downward revision in production, ending stocks, and exports compared to last month. Kenanga Research expects edible oil supply to improve in 2026 but remain tight overall. Felda and FGV will resume operations in their palm oil plantations in Terengganu. USDA's December oilseed report provides data on soybean ending stocks, production, and other supply - demand indicators for the US, Brazil, and Argentina. Other supply - demand data for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are also presented, along with export forecasts for Brazil and Argentina [6][7][9] Domestic Market Transactions - On December 9, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills decreased, with changes in spot and far - month basis trading volumes. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased. The national pork supply was sufficient in November, and the price decreased slightly [15] Macroeconomic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December and January is high. ADP's weekly employment report shows an average increase in private - sector jobs. US economic indicators such as the NFIB small - business confidence index, JOLTs job openings, and the Conference Board leading index are presented, along with API crude oil inventory data [17] Domestic News - On December 9, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased (yuan depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [19] Fund Flow - On December 9, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 16.149 billion yuan, with outflows in commodity futures, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures [21] Arbitrage Tracking - No specific content provided in the given text [22]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged dramatically, breaking the $60 per ounce mark and entering a new era of pricing, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [1][2] Group 1: Price Movement - On December 9, silver prices rose over 4% in a single day, surpassing $60 per ounce [1] - On December 10, spot silver continued its upward trend, reaching $61 per ounce and hitting a historical high of $61.45 per ounce [1] - Domestic silver futures in China also showed strength, with the main contract peaking at 14,388 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has declined to 68.6, the lowest since July 2021, indicating that silver is outperforming gold significantly [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including ongoing supply chain issues, increased industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, 5G, and artificial intelligence [2] - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks have led to increased investor demand for precious metals as a hedge against inflation [2] Group 3: Inventory and Investment Trends - Since 2025, silver inventories in the London LBMA vaults have increased by 1,447 tons, while New York Comex inventories have risen by 4,311 tons, with the ratio of London to Comex inventories reaching a new high for the year at 1.91 [2] - Global silver ETP holdings surged by 487 tons in November 2025, with an additional increase of 475 tons in the first ten days of December, marking the most significant inflow of funds since 2020 [2]

本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价/4.410≈国内金价。 昨天录了两个行情视频，第一个我们强调4200压制看弱势下跌，但是下方4165-70这个区域非常关键。在下午我们录一个几秒的小视频，强调黄金跌不动 了，要走反弹。昨天黄金亚盘4199下跌，最低4170止跌，欧盘反弹，美盘4190-4220之间扫荡，日线十字阳线！ 从当前的盘面来看，黄金昨天走了一个探底回升；目前，黄金是在走美联储降息的预期，在昨天探底回升之后，今天在美联储利率决议之前倾向于继续走多 头。黄金日内重点关注4200这个区域支撑，强势的话，这里是不能下的。如果稍微弱势的话，下方重点关注4190-85区域，依托这两档支撑看冲高！ 白银中长期，我们坚定的看涨100美元大关；短期内我们是倾向于回调之后再涨，但是最近也没有能够走有效的回调。这个地方说实话不好追，你如果追 涨，那要有承担回调的风险的能力。 然后关注冲高后再跌，第一关注次高点4240-45区域；第二近期高点4260-65区域。多头冲高以两道压力为压制高空布局，无论如何，4260-65区域是不能上 破，这里只要破了，短期内就不会跌了。至于下方关键位置，还 ...

12月10日，国内期货市场沪银主力合约2602再度领涨，截至上午收盘报涨4.67%，盘中最高冲抵14388 元/千克，刷新历史高点。 国际市场上，伦敦现货白银价格也不断冲高，截至发稿，伦敦银现最高报61.469美元/盎司，较一年前 约30美元/盎司的价格已实现翻倍增长。 此外，供需结构性矛盾成为白银走强的另一诱因。由于全球矿山资本支出的低迷，白银已经连续四年赤 字。而今年，印度作为全球白银最大消费市场，今年其首饰和银器需求上升，进而大量从英国市场进口 白银。而美国232调查将白银列入关键矿产，引发交易者对白银加征关税的担忧，其他主要产地"抢出 口"现象使得COMEX白银库存年内走高，而伦敦金库库存则是回落到近十年最低水平，可交货源的流 通紧俏推升白银价格。 上海钢联稀贵金属资讯部白银分析师黄廷则认为，白银及黄金等贵金属近年来大涨的动力源于全球信用 货币体系的动摇。黄金作为历史悠久的一般等价物和传统的信用锚，正在逐渐脱离实体货物生产体系， 反映的是主流浮动汇率国家信用货币价值的整体重估。白银作为贵金属，同样随之获得系统性的价值支 撑。 宏观层面，市场对美联储12月降息预期较强，低利率环境继续支撑白银的避险和投资 ...

美东时间12月8日至9日，据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，市场对美联储12月降息的预期进一步增强，概率从86.2%上升至89.4%，维持利率不变的概率则从 13.8%降至10.6%。 这已是美联储年内最后一场货币政策会议前夕，市场预期最强烈的一次利率调整信号。金融市场正屏息以待，等待12月会议结果的揭晓。 01 概率飙升 短短24小时内，市场对美联储降息预期的变化令人瞩目。根据最新CME FedWatch工具数据，美联储在12月会议上降息25个基点的概率已攀升至89.4%，而 维持利率不变的概率则降至10.6%。 市场对美联储降息的预期在短短24小时内变得更加确定，概率从86.2%跃升至89.4%。 这一变化较前一日明显增强，12月8日的数据显示，降息25个基点的概率为86.2%，维持不变的概率为13.8%。 市场似乎对美联储的政策转向越来越有信心。这是自美联储启动本轮加息周期以来，市场对降息预期最为强烈的一次。 02 近期轨迹 市场对美联储政策路径的预期不仅仅局限于12月会议。根据CME数据，美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为68.5%，维持利率不变的概率为7.8%， 累计降息50个基点的概率为23 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a strong oscillation due to the interplay between macroeconomic expectations and fundamental realities, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated to continue [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of last week, the nickel market has shown a strong oscillation trend influenced by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and record-high copper prices, which have collectively boosted the non-ferrous metal sector [1] - Despite some nickel companies reducing production capacity leading to marginal improvements, the overall market fundamentals remain weak, with both the stainless steel and new energy sectors showing signs of fatigue [1] Group 2: Price Expectations - The overall trading performance in the nickel market has been average, and market forecasts suggest that nickel prices may continue to exhibit a fluctuating pattern in the short term [1]