Core Viewpoint - The lead price in the Changjiang spot market has shown a healthy upward trend, closing at 17,350 CNY/ton, marking a cumulative increase of 400 CNY/ton over the week, with an average price of 17,190 CNY/ton, up 80 CNY from the previous week, driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental support [4][5]. Macroeconomic Factors - The strong rise in lead prices is attributed to four macroeconomic drivers: 1. Strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like metals [5]. 2. Significant appreciation of the RMB, lowering import costs for raw materials and enhancing domestic investors' preference for RMB-denominated assets [5]. 3. Continuous supportive policies from the government, including signals of monetary easing and initiatives to boost consumption, which have bolstered confidence in economic recovery and industrial demand [5]. 4. Improvement in initial jobless claims data in the U.S., alleviating concerns about a deep global economic recession and increasing risk appetite [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lead market is currently in a "weak balance" state, characterized by rigid supply and elastic demand: - Supply constraints are due to structural shortages in lead concentrate and challenges in recycling during winter, leading to insufficient supply elasticity and low social inventory, which supports prices [6]. - Demand shows a mixed picture, with traditional sectors like electric bicycles and automotive batteries remaining stable, while new energy vehicles pose long-term replacement pressure on lead-acid batteries. Emerging sectors like energy storage are expected to provide incremental space but have not yet significantly impacted the overall demand [6]. - The industry's profit is shifting towards upstream mining, while midstream and downstream sectors face challenges balancing cost pressures and end prices [6]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the market will navigate through the interplay of policy, liquidity, and reality: - The focus will be on the Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting minutes to validate the interest rate cut path for 2026, with any dovish signals likely to reinforce the narrative of a weak dollar and ample liquidity [7]. - Domestic policies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" are expected to drive growth, with a dual focus on "new productive forces" and expanding domestic demand, serving as key engines for the market [7]. - The lead market is anticipated to remain in a typical "weak balance" state, with supply constraints and low social inventory supporting price floors, while demand lacks explosive drivers. The lead price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,500 to 17,900 CNY/ton, exhibiting characteristics of "top and bottom" [7]. Investment Strategy - For investors, this period represents a critical window for positioning in 2026: - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, focusing on offensive investments in sectors aligned with "new productive forces" such as AI and commercial aerospace, while defensive allocations should include high-dividend blue-chip stocks to mitigate volatility [8]. - The trading logic is shifting from mere expectation-based speculation to a deeper validation of policy effectiveness and fundamental data, emphasizing the need for sensitivity to reality while embracing trends to seize opportunities in the year-end market [8].

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 1016.30 CNY per gram on December 26, with a daily increase of 0.75% and a trading volume of 224,588 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 1009.00 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 7.3 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 15.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 84.5% [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures suggests that the gold market is experiencing fluctuations around the 1000 CNY mark, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts [2] - The report indicates that the main gold contract closed at 1008.76 USD per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.58%, and is fluctuating within the 1000-1010 USD range [2] - The medium to long-term outlook for gold prices is positive, with expectations for a strong upward trend, while short-term movements are expected to be strong and volatile [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 increased by 4,590 yuan, or 1.37%, closing at 338,550 yuan per ton after reaching a high of 344,470 yuan and a low of 332,820 yuan during the day [1] - The trading volume for the main contract was 369,071 lots, with an open interest of 52,276 lots, showing a decrease of 968 lots from the previous day [1] - The average price of 1 tin in the Changjiang market rose by 1,800 yuan to 333,900 yuan per ton, while the average price in the spot market was 334,000 yuan, up by 1,750 yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Macro Factors - Tin prices are being driven by a combination of macroeconomic policies, exchange rates, and liquidity, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut due to unexpectedly slowing U.S. CPI data [1] - The strong appreciation of the RMB has effectively reduced domestic import costs, enhancing optimistic market expectations for Chinese demand [1] - Continuous signals for "stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand" policies are boosting market confidence, although the transmission to the real economy may take time [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tin market is at a critical juncture characterized by a "supply crisis, demand negotiation, and industrial chain restructuring" [2] - Supply is under "epic tension" due to slow recovery in Myanmar, strict crackdowns on illegal mining in Indonesia, and escalating conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a shortage of concentrates that restricts smelting capacity [2] - Demand is showing "structural differentiation," with short-term support from holiday stocking and electronic product surges, but high prices are suppressing actual purchases, leading to a "high price, low market" scenario [2] Group 4: Future Price Outlook - The future price of tin will depend on the "rigid supply contraction" and the "demand response to high prices" [2] - In the short term, tin prices are likely to maintain a high oscillation within the core range of 330,000 to 350,000 yuan per ton, with increasing pressure for a pullback [2] - If pre-holiday stocking does not meet expectations, prices may test the lower end of this range, with rebound momentum constrained by weak spot transactions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing upward momentum driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints, with a notable increase in both futures and spot prices observed recently [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - The Shanghai nickel futures market saw the main contract for January 2026 open at 125,790 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 127,980 CNY/ton and closing at 126,750 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 1,640 CNY/ton or 1.31% [1]. - The average price for 1 nickel on December 26 was reported at 130,900 CNY/ton, up by 3,600 CNY from the previous day, while the spot price averaged 131,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 4,250 CNY [1]. Group 2: Macro Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has weakened the US dollar, making nickel more attractive to global buyers and boosting its price [2]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector has improved, with strong performances in lithium and other energy metals contributing to a bullish atmosphere that supports nickel prices [2]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - A significant reduction in nickel supply is anticipated due to Indonesia's policy to cut nickel ore production by 34% by 2026, which is expected to tighten long-term supply [2]. - New regulations in Indonesia that impose separate taxation on cobalt may increase mining costs, further supporting nickel prices [2]. Group 4: Market Activity - The spot market is characterized by a "price without market" scenario, where trading activity remains subdued despite slight improvements in sentiment, leading to a situation where high-priced resources are not being sold [3]. - Downstream enterprises are cautious, focusing on purchasing based on need and at lower price points, which has resulted in transactions primarily occurring in the mid to low price range [3]. Group 5: Short-term Outlook - The short-term rebound in nickel prices is likely to continue, although the upward potential may be limited, suggesting a strong but constrained market environment [4].

Market Overview - Global stock markets are closed, leading to light trading activity. After a brief adjustment, the metals sector has strengthened, with gold, silver, and copper prices reaching new highs, while platinum and palladium also rose [1] - On December 26, U.S. stock index futures fell slightly, and major European markets (Germany, France, UK, Italy) were closed for the holiday. Asian markets saw light trading, with Japan's Topix index hitting a new high [1] Metal Prices - The comprehensive rise in the metals market reflects deep investor anxiety about the macro environment and urgent demand for physical assets. Factors include expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, a declining dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and Africa [1] - Since early December, momentum-driven and speculative behavior have pushed gold and silver prices higher, with expectations of prolonged U.S. rate cuts and increased geopolitical risks contributing to new highs in precious metals [1] - Gold prices may approach $5,000 per ounce and silver prices could reach around $90 per ounce by the first half of 2026 [1] Currency Movements - The offshore yuan is currently at 7.0061, with the onshore yuan's midpoint rate set at 7.0358, up 34 points, marking a new high since September 30, 2024. The offshore yuan broke the psychological level of 7.0 for the first time since September 2024 [1] - The Japanese yen has weakened slightly, with a 0.2% drop against the dollar to around 156.17, as inflation in Japan fell more than expected, leading to increased market expectations for delayed interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] - The South Korean won continued its upward trend, rising 1.2% to 1429.85, reaching its highest level since early November, following verbal interventions from authorities and new tax measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market [8] Commodity Prices - Spot gold is trading above $4,500 per ounce, currently at $4,510.54, with a daily high surpassing $4,530, marking a new historical high [10] - Spot silver recorded its fifth consecutive day of gains, currently at $74.62 per ounce, with a daily high breaking $75, also reaching a new historical high [13] - WTI crude oil rose nearly 0.3% to $58.52 per barrel, with traders closely monitoring U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil transport and military actions against terrorist organizations in Nigeria [19]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A - share major indices rose collectively this week, with gains exceeding 2% for all except the Shanghai Composite Index. The four stock - index futures also rose collectively, and small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap blue - chip stocks. Market trading activity significantly rebounded compared to last week. - Overseas, Trump's statement strengthened the market's expectation that the new Fed Chairman would cut interest rates. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in November were weak, with deflation pressure remaining. The 12 - month LPR quote remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. Although the weak economic indicators in November exerted pressure on A - shares, positive tones from political meetings provided bottom support [7][94]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2603 | 2.46 | 0.48 | 4638.4 | | | IH2603 | 1.50 | 0.51 | 3051.4 | | | IC2603 | 4.71 | 0.80 | 7388.0 | | | IM2603 | 4.63 | 0.57 | 7472.4 | | Spot | CSI 300 | 1.95 | 0.32 | 4657.24 | | | SSE 50 | 1.37 | 0.41 | 3045.40 | | | CSI 500 | 4.03 | 0.65 | 7458.84 | | | CSI 1000 | 3.76 | 0.35 | 7605.53 | [10] 3.2. News Overview - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged, which is neutral [13]. - Trump hoped the next Fed Chairman would cut interest rates when the economy and market perform well, which is neutral - to - bullish [13]. - The PBC's Q4 2025 monetary policy committee meeting proposed measures to maintain capital market stability, which is neutral - to - bullish [13]. - A large number of A - share listed companies completed private placements this year, which is neutral [13]. 3.3. Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.53%, the STAR 50 Index rose 2.85%, the SME 100 Index rose 3.88%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.90% [16]. - **Overseas Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.43%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.27%, the Nikkei 225 rose 2.33%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.50% [17]. - **Industry Sectors**: Most industry sectors rose, with non - ferrous metals and national defense and military industries leading the gains. Most industry sectors saw net outflows of main funds, with significant net outflows in computer and national defense and military industries, and significant net inflows in power equipment [21][25]. - **SHIBOR Short - term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates showed differentiation, and the capital price was at a low level [29]. - **Restricted Share Unlock and Northbound Capital Transactions**: This week, major shareholders net - sold 1.1102 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted share unlock market value was 192.473 billion yuan, and northbound capital traded a total of 529.777 billion yuan [32]. - **Futures Basis and Spread**: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM strengthened [40][43][46][49]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The A - share major indices rose collectively this week, and the four stock - index futures also rose. Small - and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks, and market trading activity rebounded. - Overseas, Trump's statement strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in November were weak, and the 12 - month LPR remained unchanged. Although the weak economic indicators in November pressured A - shares, positive policy tones provided bottom support. The expectation of a dovish Fed Chairman led to a weaker dollar and a stronger RMB, supporting the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026 [94].

原油最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：周三亚洲交易时段早盘，WTI原油价格小幅上行，围绕每桶58.40美元附近震荡。整 体来看，油价延续了前期的企稳态势，但上涨动能仍显谨慎，市场情绪主要受到供应端风险的推动。从 供应层面看，委内瑞拉相关的不确定性仍是当前油价的重要支撑因素。美国近期加大了对委内瑞拉原油 运输环节的限制力度，通过拦截油轮和强化警告的方式，提升了市场对原油出口受阻的预期。综合来 看，WTI原油当前处于典型的"供应风险支撑、需求信号压制"阶段。委内瑞拉原油运输受限为油价提供 了明显托底，但库存回升提醒市场需求端尚未稳固。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 原油技术面分析：原油从日线图级别看，油价触及54.80附近即入震荡，K线阴阳交替。均线系统空头排 列，压制油价，中期客观趋势方向向下。当下原油主客观趋势方向一直向下，依据主次交替规律，原油 中期走势维持下行节奏不变。原油短线（1H）走势继续上涨创新高，油价受到均线系统依托，短线客 观趋势方向向上不变。动能上，MACD在零后上方出现顶背离，预示多头动能存在减弱的信号。早盘原 油走势在主趋势上行中运行，预计日内原油走势仍维持看涨趋势不变。综合来看，原油今日操作 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月26日，周三我们认为，市场对美联储降息的预期升温，以及地缘局势紧张加剧刺激避险买盘，共同 推动黄金价格上涨，再创历史新高，短期技术面也显示黄金有机会继续冲高，因此操作上建议大家，下 方支撑关注4470美元，其次4430美元，上方压力关注4500美元整数位置的突破情况，若向上突破，上方 空间可以关注4600美元整数位置。 从之后的走势看，周三亚盘开盘后，黄金直接上涨，并很快突破4500美元整数位置压制，刷新历史新高 至4525美元，遇阻后金价于亚盘盘中短线跳水，跌至4471美元企稳，未能站稳4500美元整数位置，此后 金价反弹，多次试探4500美元整数位置压力，均未能取得有效突破，且在美盘盘中继续下探，刷新日低 至4448美元，收盘前金价反弹，最终日K线录得一根阴十字星。 Wolfinance星级分析师认为，周三黄金再次刷新历史新高，降息预期与避险买盘仍是支撑金价上涨的主 要原因。消息方面，早些时候市场预期美联储在2026年可能只会降息一次，不过美联储12月降息之后， 美联储主席表示劳动力市场存在显著下行风险，不希望政策抑制就业增长，引发了市场对2026年可能降 息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has rebounded sharply, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent supply mismatches in key spot markets, and a weakening dollar, leading to significant price increases across precious and base metals [1]. Precious Metals - Silver prices have reached a historical high, trading at $74.37 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 4.5% [2]. - Gold prices have also risen, trading above $4,500 per ounce, with a peak above $4,530 per ounce, marking a new historical high [3]. - Platinum and palladium have rebounded strongly, with platinum rising 8% to $2,413.62 per ounce, also reaching record highs [5]. - The overall increase in precious metals reflects a deep investor anxiety regarding the macro environment and a strong demand for physical assets, with gold and silver prices up approximately 70% and over 150% respectively this year [8]. Base Metals - Copper prices have surged by 3% to $5,771 per ton, the highest level since July, driven by supply concerns and a weakening dollar [4][13]. - The market is anticipating tighter global supply by 2026, which is influencing current pricing strategies [14]. Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing severe physical shortages, with a significant negative spread indicating extreme tightness in supply [10]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and military actions in Nigeria, have heightened the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [11]. - The influx of funds into gold ETFs has been robust, with global holdings increasing monthly, indicating strong institutional demand [12]. Lithium and Aluminum - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded strongly, breaking through the 130,000 yuan mark, driven by improving supply-demand dynamics in the electric vehicle sector [16]. - Aluminum prices have seen a significant increase of over 6%, influenced by market speculation regarding potential production cuts amid a backdrop of oversupply [17].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 夜盘收盘价 | 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价上涨 | CU2602 | 97680 | 2.8 | 3%。沪铜次主力合约 | 夜盘收于 | 元/吨，涨幅 | 2.82%。 | CU2603 | 97820 | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、12 | 月 | 日，上交所官网公告，江西铜业（600362.SH）正式要约收购索尔黄金（S | 25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | olGold，伦交所代码 | SOLG.L），该要约估值约 ...