新闻与观点 波兰国家银行（NBP）昨日意外将政策利率下调25个基点至4.50%。NBP的声明与上次会议并无太大差 异，但央行注意到，9月份消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅保持不变，为2.9%。央行预计，扣除食品 和能源价格的核心通胀率（8月份环比增长0.2%，同比增长3.2%）将接近8月份的水平，但服务价格涨 幅仍在上升。公报还评估称，尽管2025年第二季度的年工资增长率略有下降，但仍保持在高位，但企业 部门的数据显示增长正在逐步放缓。央行认为，未来一段时间通胀前景的改善有理由调整NBP的利率水 平。声明中并未明确提及，但短期通胀前景的改善可能与政府在第四季度延长能源价格上限有关。市场 反应平淡。波兰2年期掉期收益率下跌4个基点。兹罗提几乎没有反应（欧元/波兰兹罗提4.25），这表 明市场主要将降息视为时机问题，而非深刻改变对波兰央行利率预期路径的预期。 中国宣布将加强对稀土及相关技术出口的管控。这些措施旨在进一步控制已流出中国的产品和技术。为 此，外国公司出口即使含有少量稀土元素的产品也需要获得中国商务部的批准。中国当局还计划禁止与 稀土开采和回收相关的技术，除非获得商务部的许可。一些用于开发芯片的稀土产品 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicate that most officials believe further rate cuts are appropriate for the remainder of the year, while also emphasizing that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, reflecting a cautious stance on monetary policy [2] - The latest forecasts show that, on a median basis, Fed officials expect two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, but there are significant divisions within the committee, with 6 out of 19 participants expecting only one rate cut or no cuts at all in 2025 [2] - Despite rising risks in the labor market, most officials do not anticipate a sharp decline in employment, noting that recent indicators have not shown significant deterioration in labor market conditions [2] Group 2 - Market expectations reflected in federal funds futures suggest that investors widely anticipate rate cuts from the Fed in October and December [2] - The meeting occurred two weeks before a potential government shutdown, which has led to the suspension of key economic data releases [2] Group 3 - As of October 9, the yield on China's two-year government bonds is 1.49%, while the ten-year yield is 1.85%. In the U.S., the two-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 3.58%, and the ten-year yield fell by 1 basis point to 4.13% [6] - HSBC and Hang Seng Bank announced a proposal to privatize Hang Seng Bank through an arrangement under company law [6] - Fantasia Holdings reported that 84.54% of its existing notes and 77.33% of its total outstanding debt have been signed or effectively joined the restructuring support agreement, marking a significant milestone in its restructuring process [6]

Group 1 - The capital market is undergoing a profound transformation due to collective monetary easing by major global economies, including the U.S. and China, leading to increased attention on capital markets as alternative investment avenues [1][3] - The liquidity environment in capital markets is expected to remain loose, with the U.S. Federal Reserve having cut interest rates by 100 basis points since the beginning of 2024, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [3][4] - China's monetary policy has shifted from "prudent" to "moderately loose," marking the first change in 14 years, aimed at maintaining economic growth around 5% [6][7] Group 2 - Investment demand is likely to shift towards capital markets as traditional channels like real estate and high-yield financial products have seen significant declines in returns, with real estate entering a prolonged adjustment period since late 2021 [7][9] - The average yield on financial products has dropped to around 2%, failing to attract medium-risk investors, thus making capital markets a more appealing option for those seeking better returns [9][10] - The trend of capital flowing into the capital markets is expected to strengthen, enhancing the role of capital markets in China's modern economic system [7][9] Group 3 - The central bank is expected to support capital markets more vigorously, having introduced innovative tools to provide liquidity directly to financial institutions, which is a departure from previous indirect support methods [10][12] - The central bank has initiated special loans to support stock buybacks by listed companies, allowing them to access low-cost funding for repurchases, which had not been previously utilized [10][12] - The establishment of a market stabilization fund through the China Investment Corporation aims to provide liquidity support and stabilize market expectations, reflecting a proactive approach to maintaining market stability [12][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro - face: Most Fed officials think further monetary easing this year may be appropriate, while a few might have supported no rate - cut in September. The US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, with expected rate cuts of 25 basis points twice by the end of this year and another 50 basis points in 2026 [3]. - Fundamental - face: In Indonesia, President Prabowo ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines, which may intensify the tight supply of tin ore. Tin ore imports from Myanmar have rebounded, and short - term supply shows improvement signs, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. In the smelting sector, raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream made small pre - holiday stockpiling, domestic inventory decreased, but high tin prices may suppress procurement demand. LME inventory also declined, and the spot premium remained stable. It is recommended to wait and see or hold previous long positions cautiously [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 287,090 yuan/ton, with a change of 12,020. The closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is 680 yuan/ton, with a change of 760. LME 3 - month tin is at 36,250 dollars/ton, down 120. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 34,948 lots, up 6,204. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 987 lots, up 388. LME tin total inventory is 2,505 tons, up 40. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,429 tons, down 130. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 5,851 tons, up 10 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 284,200 yuan/ton, up 7,000. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 283,960 yuan/ton, up 5,500. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 2,890 yuan/ton, down 5,020. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 65.01 dollars/ton, down 73.01 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 272,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 276,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 183,870 yuan/ton, up 4,080. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that most officials are in favor of further rate cuts this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy relaxation is appropriate for the rest of the year, and inflation is expected to stay high in the short - term and then gradually fall to 2%. - China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion. - S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, and the delay in key economic data release will affect the Fed's monetary policy. Each week of shutdown may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points [3].

【操作建议】 基本面而言，9月经济前瞻指标呈现旺季回升迹象，但是供需结构性矛盾仍存，内需回升偏慢仍是约 束，货币政策当前以抓执行为主，如果三季度GDP弱于预期货币政策有加力可能。短期节后债市一方面 关注基金赎回费新规落地情况，二是关注市场风险偏好变化，10月中旬以前政策预期可能继续驱动股 牛，这种情形下债市情绪仍有可能受到风偏压制，如果出现超预期冲击也不排除出现超调。不过当前资 金面基调宽松和长短期限利差回归正常水平也制约长债下跌的幅度，如果10年期国债利率上行至1.8% 以上区间配置价值有所回升。短期期债预计继续区间震荡，T2512震荡区间可能在107.4-108.3，建议以 观望为主等待超调机会。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 央行公告称，10月9日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are respectively: short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "oscillation", and intraday is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that due to the need for a relatively loose monetary environment on the demand side of the macro - economy, the medium - and long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the strong risk appetite in the stock market suppresses bond - buying demand, and there is no high necessity for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, so the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. After the National Day, the central bank flexibly manages liquidity in the open market, increasing the volume of repurchase operations to keep liquidity relatively stable. Overall, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they mainly undergo bottom - level oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For the TL2512 variety, short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "oscillation", intraday is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the co - existence of medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectations and low short - term comprehensive interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the macro - economic demand side requires a loose monetary environment, so the medium - and long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, supporting Treasury bond futures. But in the short term, the strong stock - market risk appetite suppresses bond - buying demand, and there is no high need for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, limiting the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. After the National Day, the central bank manages liquidity flexibly in the open market to keep it stable. In the short term, Treasury bond futures have limited upward momentum and downward space, mainly oscillating at the bottom [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint expressed by Michael Barr is the concern that further interest rate cuts may exacerbate inflation risks, making the decision for potential cuts in October a "difficult choice" [1] - Barr indicated that the decision to cut rates in September was primarily based on a cautious assessment of the labor market, suggesting that if there were no concerns about the labor market, a cut would not have been necessary [1] - He emphasized the importance of balancing various objectives, including price stability and full employment, which reflects the independence of the central bank [1] Group 2 - In terms of macroeconomic fundamentals, Barr stated that the overall household balance sheet situation is relatively good and that there is no evidence of an economic boom driven by credit [2] - He noted that the wealth effect may be contributing to consumer spending growth [2] - Regarding balance sheet operations, Barr mentioned that the progress in balance sheet normalization has been quite smooth and highlighted the importance of having effective policy rate "ceiling tools" [2]

来源：第一财经 美联储理事巴尔周四表示，美联储在进一步降息方面应保持谨慎，他明显偏向通胀风险，尽管他也承 认"基本平衡"的劳动力市场存在潜在脆弱性。"联邦公开市场委员会在调整政策时应保持谨慎，以便我 们能够收集更多数据、更新我们的预测，并更好地评估风险平衡，"巴尔在明尼苏达经济俱乐部的讲话 中表示。这是他自6月以来首次就货币政策发表公开评论。尽管巴尔支持美联储上月降息25个基点的决 定，但他在讲话中着重强调了关税对通胀的影响，暗示他并不认为有必要像金融市场目前预期的那样进 行一系列降息。他还表示："考虑到供需冲击、金融市场和金融状况的变化、劳动力市场的表现以及通 胀的情况……我认为当前利率仅具有温和限制性。" (本文来自第一财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively injecting medium-term liquidity into the banking system through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to maintain a stable and ample liquidity environment in response to potential tightening pressures in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On October 9, the PBOC conducted a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management post the "National Day" holiday [1]. - The PBOC is expected to continue with equal or slightly increased amounts of reverse repos and MLF operations in October, marking the fifth consecutive month of such actions [2]. - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need for effective monetary policy adjustments to align with economic growth and inflation expectations, aiming to keep liquidity abundant [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity environment is anticipated to experience a "first loose, then tight" seasonal pattern in October, influenced by fiscal spending, holiday cash flow, and large-scale government bond issuances [4]. - Market analysts predict that the PBOC will utilize various tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to maintain short-term and medium-term liquidity balance, while also considering potential long-term liquidity injections through reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts [3][4]. - The expectation of a new round of growth-stabilizing policies, including a potential RRR cut, is likely to influence the net medium-term liquidity injection scale, which may decrease from the previously high levels [5][6].

为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年10月9日，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 展望10月，财通证券首席经济学家孙彬彬分析，流动性缺口或和9月相当，但考虑到10月央行或重启国 债买卖，以及四季度多数情况下资金利率中枢低于三季度，10月资金利率中枢至少会下移至7月至8月水 平，且波动有所降低。 央行行长潘功胜此前在国新办发布会上表示，往前看，央行将根据宏观经济运行的情况和形势变化，综 合运用多种货币政策工具，保证流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下降，支持提振消费、扩大有效投 资，巩固和增强经济回升向好的态势，维护金融市场的稳定运行，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的 基本稳定。 据了解，中国人民银行货币政策委员会第三季度例会提到，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对 性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项 货币政策措施执行，充分释放政策效应。保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社 会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 ...