Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, the lowest level in two years, in response to declining domestic inflation concerns [1] - Australia's inflation rate has significantly decreased since peaking in 2022, with the latest overall inflation data projected to reach 2.4% by the first quarter of 2025, the lowest in four years [1] - The RBA anticipates that inflation will drop to around 2% by the end of 2026, below its baseline forecast of 2.6%, while GDP levels are expected to be over 3% lower than baseline scenarios by mid-2027 [1] Group 2 - The RBA acknowledges that the recent trade truce between the US and China has alleviated some downside risks to global growth, but warns of potential escalation into a broader trade war that could significantly impact domestic GDP growth and increase unemployment rates [2] - In a trade war scenario, the RBA predicts that Australia's unemployment rate could rise to nearly 6% if the US reinstates higher tariffs in 2026 and other countries retaliate [2] - The RBA believes that higher tariffs could have a counter-inflationary effect on Australia, although a prolonged trade war may exacerbate inflationary pressures due to increased tariffs affecting a larger share of global trade [2]

澳洲联储：预计通胀在截至2025年6月、2026年6月和2027年6月均为2.6%。到2025年6月，国内生产总 值增长率为1.8%；2026年6月和2027年6月的GDP增长率均为2.2%。预计家庭消费增长在2025年6月为 1.4%，2026年6月为2.2%，2027年6月为2.4%。经济增长将受到冲击，到2027年年中，国内生产总值预 计将下降3%以上。在贸易战情景下，澳大利亚贸易加权指数将贬值6%，这将"对经济活动提供一定支 持"。 ...

澳洲联储：预计失业率截至2025年6月为4.2%，2026年6月和2027年6月均为4.3%。地缘政治不确定性依 然突出，在 "贸易战" 情景下，失业率或将攀升至近 6%。 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) projects that economic growth will be impacted, with GDP expected to decline by over 3% by mid-2027 [1] - In a trade war scenario, Australia's trade-weighted index is anticipated to depreciate by 6%, which will provide some support to economic activity [1]

澳洲联储：地缘政治不确定性依然突出，在 "贸易战" 情景下，失业率或将攀升至近 6%。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for rare earth materials, which are critical for military applications such as F-35 fighter jets and Virginia-class submarines, with significant quantities used in various advanced weaponry [1] - The ongoing trade tensions have resulted in a 30% tariff on Chinese goods, leading to increased costs for U.S. retailers and consumers, particularly affecting small businesses with lower profit margins [3] - There is a call for a long-term agreement between the U.S. and China to provide more certainty for businesses, as the current high tariffs contribute to economic uncertainty and potential downturns [3] Group 2 - The U.S. has accused China of underreporting its military spending, with claims that China's actual defense budget could be as high as $700 billion, significantly above the reported $211.3 billion for 2024 [5] - The military spending comparison between the U.S. and China is complicated by differences in military scale, strategic deployment, and industrial structure, affecting the efficiency of military expenditure [5] - The trade conflict has revealed weaknesses in the U.S. economy, as initial assumptions about China's dependence on U.S. trade have proven incorrect, leading to significant losses for the U.S. [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is considering measures such as lowering interest rates to stimulate economic growth in response to potential downturns caused by the trade war [7] - There is recognition that previous U.S. administrations may have misjudged China's capabilities and resilience in the trade conflict, placing the U.S. at a disadvantage [7]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. inflation data showed a slight decline, with the overall annual inflation rate dropping to 2.3%, which was unexpected as many anticipated a rise [3] - The core inflation rate remained at 2.8%, and while there were increases in some monthly data, they were still below market expectations [3] - The ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may impact market sentiment in the coming days [1] Inflation Data Summary - The overall annual inflation rate decreased to 2.3%, contrary to expectations of a potential rise [3] - Core inflation remained stable at 2.8%, with monthly data showing increases but still falling short of market forecasts [3] - Gasoline prices significantly dropped, but rising natural gas prices offset this decline [3] Currency Pair Analysis - The EUR/USD temporarily fell below 1.12, reflecting market reactions to the U.S. inflation data and trade tensions [5] - The GBP/USD has maintained above 1.32, supported by positive economic indicators and less political turmoil compared to other countries [6][8] - The upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE data releases on May 29 and 30 are expected to influence market movements significantly [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains cautious due to the unclear long-term effects of trade tensions, despite a temporary easing of U.S.-China tensions [5][8] - The GBP/USD trading volume has not significantly decreased since early April, indicating stable market interest [8] - The upcoming U.K. inflation data, expected to show a rise to 3.3%, could significantly impact market trends [8]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's new tariff plan aims to address the chaos in the trade system caused by his previous tariff policies, as he is forced to act due to economic pressures and the inability to reach new trade agreements with all countries [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Pressures - The U.S. government is under significant pressure due to high-interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve, which is affecting the U.S. debt situation, particularly with trillions of dollars in debt maturing in June [3]. - Trump's primary goal is to lower U.S. inflation to compel the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, thereby reducing the cost of new debt [3][5]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Inflation - The U.S. lacks necessary supply chains to provide sufficient goods, leading to rising prices and indirectly increasing inflation [5]. - High labor costs in the U.S. compared to manufacturing powerhouses contribute to elevated product prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures [5]. Group 3: China’s Role - China has played a pivotal role in the trade dynamics, preparing for a prolonged trade conflict and implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [7]. - The unexpected resilience of China in the trade war has forced Trump to reconsider his approach, leading to a situation where he is now compelled to negotiate [7][9]. Group 4: Global Reactions - Following the U.S.-China joint statement, other countries like India and several EU nations have expressed intentions to retaliate against U.S. tariffs, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics [9][11]. - India's proposal for retaliatory tariffs and the EU's demands for better trade terms highlight the growing discontent with U.S. trade policies [11][13]. Group 5: Urgency for Resolution - The increasing demands from other countries for better trade terms create a challenging negotiation environment for the Trump administration, necessitating a swift resolution to tariff issues [13].

特朗普（资料图） 据中国青年网报道，一连多日，从金融市场到跨境商家，都沉浸在中美关税冲突缓解的喜悦和兴奋中。外界普遍用"高于预期"来形容此次中美两国官员在美 国总统特朗普发动关税战后的首次面对面会晤。根据5月12日发布的中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，中美各取消91％的关税、暂停实施24%的"对等关税"90 天，相互调整后的关税于5月14日正式实施。中方表示，中美迈出了通过平等对话协商解决分歧的重要一步。 5月14日12时01分(美东时间5月14日0时01分)起，中美相互调整后的关税正式实施。据彭博社消息，摩根大通因此提高了美国经济增速预测，认为美国2025 年经济衰退概率降低，并将一项剔除食品和能源的潜在通胀指标预测从4%下调至3.5%。同时，瑞银、摩根士丹利等上调了对中国GDP增速预测。专家提 到，日内瓦谈判说明中美双方都希望能够继续发展双边经贸关系，对话中双方都展现出了诚意，这为下一阶段的经贸谈判奠定基础。 美国高盛分析师称，未来90天，从中国进口将爆火，"抢先"成为关键词。不过，法新社称，尽管中美关税争端暂时缓解，但美国公司仍担忧90天后美方政 策"可能出现波动"。对于中美是否会举行下阶段高层经贸会谈，并 ...

贸易（资料图） 当白宫挥舞的关税大棒第一次遭遇实质性反击时，全球经济秩序的天平开始发生微妙倾斜。 近期，据金融界报道，美国总统特朗普周四在卡塔尔首都多哈表示，印度向美国提出了一项零关税的贸易协议。4月9日，特朗普宣布对主要贸易伙伴征收关 税，其中包括对印度征收26%的关税，目前印度方面正寻求在90天的暂停期内与美国达成贸易协议。特朗普周四在卡塔尔与商界领袖举行的活动上发表讲 话，称印度政府"向我们提出了一项协议，基本上他们愿意不向我们收取任何关税。" 编辑 贸易（资料图） 日本坚持以"零关税"为目标，日美贸易谈判前景如何？日本央行的政策路径又将如何影响？上海国际问题研究院陈友骏认为，日美结构性矛盾不可调和，日 方在谈判中"讨价还价"空间很小。浙商银行财富管理部总行投顾周锦舜认为，日美贸易谈判可能分几个阶段，前景并不明朗。受关税影响，日本部分经济先 行指标已经走弱。 印度并没有直接喊零关税，而是转头威胁美国，扬言要对美商品征收报复性关税，要不说印度的外交政策就是"骑墙"，真厉害跟谁，前两天还跟印度女婿万 斯相谈甚欢，上赶着对美国示好，现在一看中国比较牛，立马调转枪口，朝着特朗普就开炮。当然印度这个是威胁，会不会 ...