Core Viewpoint - Recent calls from German lawmakers to repatriate 1,236 tons of gold stored in the U.S. due to concerns over the unpredictability of U.S. policies highlight a potential shift in global gold storage practices [1][9]. Group 1: Historical Context - Post-World War II, many countries, including Germany, stored their gold in the U.S. due to its strong security and financial stability [1][3]. - Germany transferred 98% of its gold reserves abroad during the Cold War to prevent Soviet access, with most of it stored in the U.S., along with some in the UK and France [3]. Group 2: Current Concerns - The U.S. has not publicly disclosed its gold reserves since 1974, raising concerns among countries about the safety and actual quantity of their stored gold [5]. - Speculations suggest that the U.S. may have depleted its gold reserves due to military expenditures, leading to a lack of audits and transparency [5][7]. Group 3: Impact of U.S. Policies - The erratic behavior of former President Trump, including his influence on global markets through social media, has increased fears regarding the reliability of U.S. financial policies [9]. - Trump's actions, such as territorial ambitions, could undermine NATO and the U.S.'s role as a stabilizing force in the international order [11]. Group 4: Potential Consequences - If Germany successfully repatriates its gold, it may trigger a "domino effect," prompting other countries to follow suit, which could undermine the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unprecedented surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time, leading to significant increases in related ETFs [2][30]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Gold prices reached a record high of $5,100 per ounce, with a rise of over 2%, positively impacting gold ETFs [2][3]. - Silver has experienced a textbook-style short squeeze, with extreme positioning in the COMEX futures market, where commercial short positions reached approximately 90,000 contracts, while speculative net long positions exceeded 25,000 contracts [9]. - The physical delivery segment for silver is under pressure, with global deliverable silver inventories at a ten-year low, indicating a fierce competition for physical silver [9]. - The price of silver has increased by over 40% since the beginning of 2026, outpacing gold's performance [10]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The silver market has faced a structural supply shortage for five consecutive years, with the expected shortfall in 2026 projected to be around 7,000 tons [12]. - The demand for silver is driven by sectors such as photovoltaics, AI data centers, and electric vehicles, while approximately 70% of silver production comes as a byproduct of mining other metals, limiting supply flexibility [12]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Institutional Behavior - There has been a significant inflow of funds into gold-related ETFs, with a net inflow of $34.7 billion in 2025, a 220% increase from 2024 [22]. - Major institutions, including Bridgewater and BlackRock, have increased their positions in gold ETFs, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [23]. - Central banks globally purchased a record 1,287 tons of gold in 2025, with China alone increasing its gold reserves by 287 tons, highlighting the ongoing demand from institutional investors [24][28]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The article discusses the macroeconomic narratives driving gold and silver investments, including risks associated with the U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions, and inflation concerns [16][19]. - Recent geopolitical events have intensified the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with significant actions taken by various countries that contribute to market instability [17][18]. - Investment banks have raised their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs predicting a price of $5,500 per ounce within 12 months, driven by geopolitical risk premiums and central bank demand [30][31]. Group 5: Investment Vehicles and Cost Efficiency - The article emphasizes the low fee structure of gold ETFs, such as the 华夏 ETF (518850) and 黄金股 ETF (159562), both having a fee rate of 0.2%, significantly lower than the market average of 0.6% [39]. - These ETFs provide investors with efficient access to gold and gold-related equities, supporting T+0 trading and offering a diversified exposure to the gold market [38].

摘要北京时间周一(1月26日)欧洲时段，美元指数回调，交投于97.116附近，金价目前交投于5083.29美 元/盎司，涨幅2.02%，最高触及5110.25美元/盎司，最低触及5003.26美元/盎司。现货黄金强势突破每盎 司5000美元大关，创历史新高。在俄乌局势胶着、中东美伊对峙加剧等地缘风险持续发酵，叠加全球央 行购金热潮与散户投资热情高涨的双重推动下，金价年内有望继续攀升。受避险需求激增影响，金价一 度冲高至5110美元上方。 北京时间周一(1月26日)欧洲时段，美元指数回调，交投于97.116附近，金价目前交投于5083.29美元/盎 司，涨幅2.02%，最高触及5110.25美元/盎司，最低触及5003.26美元/盎司。现货黄金强势突破每盎司 5000美元大关，创历史新高。在俄乌局势胶着、中东美伊对峙加剧等地缘风险持续发酵，叠加全球央行 购金热潮与散户投资热情高涨的双重推动下，金价年内有望继续攀升。受避险需求激增影响，金价一度 冲高至5110美元上方。 今日黄金价格最新查询(2026年1月26日) | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 50 ...

现货黄金价格周一突破每盎司5000美元关口创历史新高，分析师预计，受全球地缘紧张局势持续升级，以及各国央行和零售市场强劲买 盘支撑，金价今年将进一步攀升。 受地缘政治与经济风险冲击市场影响，黄金价格一度冲高至5110美元以上。这一避险资产在2025年大涨64%后，今年涨幅已超17%。 黄金近期的涨势，由多重地缘政治紧张局势共同推动，其中包括美欧因格陵兰岛问题产生的北约内部分歧、关税政策的不确定性，以及 市场对美联储独立性的质疑不断升温等。 金属聚焦咨询公司董事菲利普・纽曼（Philip Newman）称："随着美国中期选举临近，政治层面的不确定性或进一步加剧。与此同时， 市场对美股估值过高的担忧始终存在，这或将推动更多资金为分散投资组合而流入黄金市场。" 他补充道："在突破每盎司5000美元的里程碑后，我们预计金价将继续走高。" 各国央行购金热情居高不下 伦敦金银市场协会年度贵金属预测调查显示，分析师预计2026年黄金价格最高将触及7150美元，全年均价为4742美元。 高盛集团已将2026年12月黄金价格预期从4900美元上调至5400美元。 独立分析师罗斯・诺曼（Ross Norman）则预计，黄金价格今 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical events are accelerating the de-dollarization process, leading to a broad increase in commodity prices [4] - Precious metals are recommended for strong holding due to rising demand driven by political events and net selling pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds, with gold and silver prices increasing by 8.30% and 14.80% respectively [4] - Copper prices have risen by 1.09% due to a temporary easing of European risks, but there are signs of weak demand from downstream sectors [5] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise as supply continues to grow while demand shows signs of stabilization [5] - Tin prices have rebounded significantly due to macroeconomic factors and uncertainties in supply from conflict regions [6] - Lithium prices are on the rise due to low inventory levels and strong demand expectations, indicating a potential upward trend [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 9972.0, with a weekly high of 9972.0 and a low of 4295.55 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price changes: copper up 1.09%, aluminum up 0.25%, zinc up 1.08%, lead down 1.43%, and tin up 13.57% [19] - Precious metals experienced significant increases: gold up 8.30% and silver up 14.80% [19] - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 13.25% due to supply constraints [19] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventory changes: copper increased by 38,104 tons, aluminum by 21,952 tons, zinc by 2,662 tons, lead by 12,077 tons, tin by 16 tons, and nickel decreased by 1,711 tons [33][35]

贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 期货研究报告 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2026 年 1 月 26 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价持续强势 核心观点 上周金价持续上涨，纽约金由 4600 美元上涨逼近 5000 美元关 口。周中虽然美欧地缘冲突有所缓和，金价经历了短暂的避险情绪降 温。然而，支撑金价长期上涨的多个核心驱动力并未改变，这些力量 共同作用，使得金价在短期调整后仍能持续走强，并维持在历史高位 运行。 从长周期角度，美国将关税等经济和金融工具持续"武器化"的 长期趋势，正在从根本上侵蚀美元信用体系。这一结构性支点动摇， 正加速全球范围内的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the macro environment improving, copper prices may maintain a high - level and strong - running trend. Last week, copper prices first oscillated around the 100,000 - yuan mark and then rebounded with increased positions on Friday. The weakening US dollar index is beneficial to copper prices, and the improvement in the Greenland incident has boosted short - term market risk appetite. The continuous rise of precious metals has driven the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. In the industrial aspect, when copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark last week, the restocking willingness of some downstream industries increased, and the inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper slowed down. However, as copper prices rebounded, the basis and monthly spread weakened again, and it is expected that the restocking willingness will decline again. Copper prices may maintain a high - level oscillation and wait for industrial follow - up [5]. - Aluminum: With the macro environment improving, aluminum prices may maintain an oscillating trend. Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited. In the industrial aspect, the inventory of upstream bauxite has slightly increased, alumina is running weakly, the restocking willingness of downstream industries is weak, electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate, and the monthly spread also remains weak. Aluminum prices have strong technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark and are waiting for industrial follow - up [6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the US dollar index dropped significantly, which is beneficial to the non - ferrous sector. The decline of the US dollar index and the sharp rise of gold largely reflect the intention of global asset allocation, that is, "de - dollarization" [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first oscillated around the 100,000 - yuan mark and then rebounded with increased positions on Friday. The weakening US dollar index is beneficial to copper prices, and the continuous rise of precious metals has driven the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector [5]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - On January 23, the second - phase project of Tibet Julong Copper Industry was completed and put into operation. The second - phase expansion project was approved, and it is planned to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025. After reaching full production, the annual ore mining and processing volume will exceed 100 million tons, and the annual copper production will reach 300,000 - 350,000 tons. SMM expects the copper production of Julong Copper Industry to be 165,000 tons in 2025 and 250,000 tons in 2026. Last week, the copper ore port inventory increased slightly, and the TC processing fee decreased slightly [24][26]. 3.2.3 Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Inventory - On January 22, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 335,200 tons, a weekly increase of 7,700 tons; the inventory of COMEX + LME was 727,600 tons, a weekly increase of 47,800 tons. Overseas electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the inventory accumulation in China slowed down [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Industry - On January 23, SMM reported that the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry rebounded by 10.51 percentage points to 67.98% week - on - week. Driven by the Spring Festival stockpiling and the decline of copper prices, downstream orders recovered, leading to the reduction of finished product inventory, and enterprises accelerated production to meet the demand. Looking forward to next week, the stockpiling demand will continue, and SMM expects the operating rate to further increase by 3.23 percentage points to 71.2% [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited [6]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On January 23, the bauxite port inventory was 24.5 million tons, an increase of 392,400 tons compared with last week and an increase of 7.17 million tons compared with the same period in 2025 [44]. 3.3.3 Low - level Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 22, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 768,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with last week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 514,700 tons, an increase of 18,300 tons compared with last week [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Industry - Last week, aluminum prices oscillated around the 24,000 - yuan mark, the restocking willingness of downstream industries increased, and the processing fees of aluminum rods in some areas increased slightly. On January 22, the aluminum rod inventory was 123,300 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with last week. The aluminum rod inventory is about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, but high aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand, and the inventory accumulation speed can be continuously monitored [54][57]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume continued to decline, indicating a strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. The decline of copper prices was mainly due to the cooling of the macro environment, and the non - ferrous sector and even the commodity market declined. The willingness of short - term funds to close positions continued to increase. In the macro aspect, the overseas US dollar index continued to rebound, and the margin ratio of margin trading in China was raised, increasing the market regulation expectation. In the industrial aspect, the monthly spread of nearby contracts weakened significantly, electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream industries were in a wait - and - see mood. As copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark, the restocking willingness of some industries increased, which may provide some support for copper prices. The long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark can be continuously monitored [60]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited. In the industrial aspect, the inventory of upstream bauxite has slightly increased, alumina is running weakly, the restocking willingness of downstream industries is weak, electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate, and the monthly spread also remains weak. Aluminum prices have strong technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark and are waiting for industrial follow - up [60].

美国推行单边主义，渐渐侵蚀着美元作为"信用锚"的根基。截至2025年三季度，美元在全球外汇储备中 的占比降至56%，较历史高位跌落10个百分点，而黄金的储备占比却在稳步攀升。美国政府超38.5万亿 美元的债务规模仍在膨胀，市场对美元长期购买力的忧虑日益加深，"去美元化"步伐在加快。例如，丹 麦养老基金近期宣布，计划在本月底前清仓所持有的全部美债，全面投向黄金等非美元资产；德国化工 巨头巴斯夫将美元资产占比从40%压减至25%。在美欧对立加重情况下，将有更多欧洲资金作出类似选 择。 全球央行战略性购买黄金，则在不断筑牢金价底部。世界黄金协会数据显示，在2025年接受调查的央行 中，高达95%的央行预计未来12个月黄金储备会继续增加。2025年全球央行持续呈现增持黄金的趋势。 大多数国家都在增加黄金持有量，将黄金作为规避货币与金融危机的战略资产。其中，波兰央行购入 150吨黄金，将储备总量提至700吨，跻身全球前十。波兰央行行长亚当·格拉平斯基表示，黄金不受他 国货币政策牵绊，坚固可靠。 即便美国宣布暂缓执行2月1日对欧加征关税的计划，但其对格陵兰岛势在必得的强硬姿态丝毫未减。国 际社会与欧洲各国对美国单边霸权的 ...

黄金：2026年，黄金行情大概率会继续演绎，交易盘和配置盘的共振之下，甚至不排除会有更加超出预期的上涨行情，理由如下：1）美元信誉好像在动 摇，2026年美国长债仍然存在供需压力，安稳币难以在长久期负债端缓解其压力，黄金替代美债进行财物配置的长逻辑仍然有用。2）ETF的继续流入，从 历史上看，降息后美国和欧洲的ETF会随之流入，鸽派预期下，降息空间打开，且美联储扩表必然压制短端利率，会促进西方投资者继续买入黄金ETF。白 银：白银在2026年有望继续上涨。不仅在于其库存的下降造就了现货市场的紧张，部分国家将其储备财物化也有望继续推动实物市场的缺少，然后加大价格 的弹性。 全球地缘紧张局势升温，贵金属避险心情提升，价格继续上行。长期来看央行购金+美元信誉弱化主线继续，继续看好金价上行。白银兼具工业和金融属 性，光伏用银需求继续，看好工业需求提振带来白银补涨行情。 上周，黄金、白银等贵金属迎来大涨，其中黄金斩获近6年最佳单周体现，涨幅达8.4%，白银涨幅更是达到14.4%。白银价格突破100美元/盎司大关，黄金价 格也逼近5000美元/盎司关口。 苍原资本以为，1)黄金的货币、投资、避险三大金融属性由实际利率、美 ...

2026.01.26 本文字数：1842，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经齐琦 金银价格继续"狂飙"。 1月26日，伦敦现货黄金冲破5000美元/盎司，最高触及5093美元，距5100美元/盎司仅一步之遥，距离 其首次突破4000美元关口仅过去100多天。伦敦现货白银更是一举升破109美元/盎司，再度创下历史新 高。 国内市场，黄金概念股1月26日开盘冲高，湖南黄金（002155.SZ）、四川黄金（001337.SZ）、招金黄 金（000506.SZ）、湖南白银（002716.SZ）等纷纷涨停。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对第一财经分析称，黄金强势突破5000关口，是短期避险需 求、中期政策预期、长期货币信用重构三重逻辑共振的结果。预计2026年金价或有望挑战6000美元关 口。当前金价处于高价位、高波动阶段，投资者需做好仓位控制。 宏观面上，刘庭宇进一步分析称，12月美国非农就业人数低于预期的同时失业率也低于预期，虽然就 业、ISM制造业PMI和消费数据仍显疲软，但1月降息概率接近0，市场预期2026年有50BP降息空间。 长期看，随着美联储独立性弱化、内部政策分歧持续加剧，叠加赤字率上行不 ...