本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 金价近期跌至6月以来新低，主要受多重因素影响，以下是关键信息整合： 冲突缓和后，资金从黄金、原油等避险资产转向股市等风险资产，美股三大指数全线收涨，国际油价同 步暴跌超7%。 美联储货币政策预期 美联储主席鲍威尔表示需更多时间评估关税政策对通胀的影响，暗示不急于降息。这一表态削弱了黄金 的抗通胀吸引力，推动美元走强，进一步压制金价。 市场对7月降息预期降温，转向押注9月降息，年内预计降息两次。 技术性抛压与获利了结 金价此前连续上涨积累大量获利盘，停火协议触发程序化交易抛售，导致"多杀多"踩踏效应。技术面跌 破3300美元关键支撑后，加速下行至3295美元（6月25日低点）。 一、下跌原因 地缘政治缓和 以色列与伊朗于6月24日达成全面停火协议，中东紧张局势降温，市场避险情绪退潮，黄金作为避险资 产的吸引力显著下降。 原油：WTI原油期货跌7.22%至68.51美元/桶，布伦特原油期货跌7.18%至71.48美元/桶。 纽约商品交易所8月黄金期价收于3333.9美元/盎司（6月24日），单日跌幅1.80%。 现货黄金盘中最低触及3295.38美元/盎司（6月25日），创6月 ...

地缘关税通胀密集来袭！黄金震荡趋势何时结束？主流品种基本面应如何解读？TTPS团队黄教练正在 分析中，立即观看！ 相关链接 黄金趋势讲解中 ...

Core Insights - The weakening of the US dollar has diminished the attractiveness of holding cash, as indicated by a survey conducted by French foreign trade bank investment management [1] Group 1: Survey Findings - 41% of respondents believe that currency depreciation is the primary risk associated with holding cash [1] - 38% of participants think that better returns can be found elsewhere, making cash less appealing [1] - Concerns about inflation are significant, with 35% of respondents stating that cash interest rates are insufficient to meet long-term goals [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会的发言，成为本周最受关注的大事，因为他的言论很可能对利率走向带 来启示。 在前几天的议息会议上，美联储一如预期维持利率于4.25%到4.50%水平不变，但不少FOMC官员开始松 口，认为降息也是可行的，同时市场加注美联储降息步伐加快。 关税对通胀的影响可能是短期的——体现为价格水平的一次性变动。但通胀效应也有可能更持久。要避 免这种情况，需取决于关税影响的规模、其完全传导至价格所需的时间，以及最终能否让长期通胀预期 保持稳定。 总括而言，美联储仍有很大的决策调整空间，并不急于降息，而是等待更多的经济数据证明有必要调整 再作变动。这是鲍威尔作为美联储主席的专业判断与谨慎施策。 美元霸权面临挑战？ 然而，特朗普继续抨击鲍威尔，要求国会施压降息。在此之前，有消息指特朗普或想通过提前确定鲍威 尔的接任人选，来影响市场利率。特朗普的做法，引发了市场对于美联储不再独立的忧虑。 此外，特朗普上任之后，政策飘忽不定，从贸易条款到国际承诺、从国内治理到外交策略，频繁的转向 与矛盾性决策，不仅让美国国内机构陷入执行混乱，更使全球市场与盟友体系长期处于不确定性的震荡 之中。 通胀猛于虎，鲍威尔不松口 在 ...

新华财经北京6月25日电近期市场情绪保持温和乐观，在风险偏好的主导下，美元作为避险资产持续走 软，进而推动欧元上行。然而，分析人士提醒需警惕中东地缘政治的突变性风险。尽管目前停火局势得 以维持，这或许会重新点燃市场的避险需求，从而压制欧元的走势。 美联储主席鲍威尔将在格林尼治时间14:00（可能是美国东部时间上午9:00或10:00，具体取决于是否为 夏令时）发表更多关于货币政策的证词。他的讲话可能会对美元的价值产生影响，并间接影响澳元兑美 元的汇率。 美联储未来利率决策会议：美联储第三季度的利率决策会议分别定于7月30日和9月17日举行。市场普遍 预期美联储将在9月份的会议上决定降息。 欧元 在欧洲交易时段，欧元徘徊于1.16附近，逼近自2021年11月以来的最高点1.1641。美元持续承压，而欧 元则维持在相对高位。原油价格的回调对欧元形成了支撑，原因在于较低的能源价格有助于缓解欧元区 的通胀压力，从而增强欧元的基本面韧性。此外，德国6月IFO商业景气指数略超预期，进一步巩固了 市场对欧元区经济稳定的信心。 英镑 欧洲交易时段，英镑兑美元盘中冲高至1.3633后回落。市场焦点再次聚焦于货币政策。 英国央行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid shift in President Trump's stance from military action against Iran to advocating for a ceasefire is primarily driven by economic factors, particularly the rising energy prices and their impact on inflation and U.S. economic policy [2][4][10]. Energy Prices and Inflation - Following Trump's announcement of military action against Iran, international oil prices surged, with WTI crude reaching over $78 per barrel and Brent crude hitting $81.4 [1]. - The increase in oil prices poses a direct threat to U.S. inflation, as energy expenditures account for approximately 6.2% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [5]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% rise in oil prices could increase the preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, by 0.04 percentage points, while a $10 increase in oil prices could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points [5][6]. Political Implications - Rising oil prices could lead to public dissatisfaction with Trump, potentially affecting midterm election outcomes [4][9]. - Trump's call for lower oil prices is seen as an attempt to mitigate inflationary pressures and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7][10]. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Concerns over inflation have prompted Trump to urge the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, as high rates could hinder his economic policies and the proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill" [10][11]. - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicate that any signs of rising inflation could deter them from lowering rates, complicating Trump's fiscal plans [9][12]. Strategic Economic Planning - Trump's actions to stabilize energy prices and negotiate peace in the Middle East are viewed as necessary steps to create fiscal space for his spending plans, which could add at least $3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade [10][13]. - The anticipated increase in U.S. Treasury supply may lead to rising interest rates, complicating the financing of Trump's proposed fiscal initiatives [12].

Group 1: US Economy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that oil price shocks will not have a lasting impact on inflation, consistent with the quantitative analysis conducted by the US economic team in September 2023 [1] - The research indicates that a 10% increase in oil prices typically results in a modest 5 basis point increase in core prices within three months [1] - The model shows that headline prices react more significantly, increasing by 5 basis points in the same period, primarily due to the energy component of the CPI [1] Group 2: China Liquidity and MSCI China - In May, China's liquidity showed some improvement but remained negative due to strong growth in M1 (narrow money supply), intensified PPI deflation, and stable industrial value-added growth [4] - Morgan Stanley expects deflationary pressures to persist throughout 2025, with a passive policy stance leading to continued negative liquidity [4] Group 3: Chinese Beauty Market during 618 Sales - The total GMV of beauty products across four major e-commerce platforms grew by over 10% year-on-year, attributed to a 10-day extension of the promotional period and simplified sales strategies [6] - Douyin's beauty category growth outpaced Tmall's by approximately 10%, although the growth advantage for Douyin appears to be narrowing [6] - Tmall's competitive landscape remained stable, with the top six brands consistent with the previous year, while domestic brands showed more volatility in rankings [6] Group 4: E-commerce Platforms and Competition - Morgan Stanley expresses confidence in Meituan's competitive barriers in the instant retail sector, with Alibaba's e-commerce and local life services synergy expected to drive business expansion [15] - Meituan's restructuring of its 优选 (preferred) business is seen as a positive move, allowing for more investment in instant retail and international expansion [19] - Meituan is projected to achieve a GTV of 350 billion RMB in instant retail by 2025, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [19] Group 5: Alibaba's Strategic Moves - Alibaba announced the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce group, maintaining their operational structures while enhancing business efficiency through strong synergies [21] - This move is seen as a response to JD's recent expansions into instant retail and online travel, highlighting the competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector [21]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not indicate any imminent interest rate cuts during his testimony, emphasizing a cautious approach to policy adjustments despite pressure from President Trump and other officials [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell reiterated that the Fed does not need to rush into policy changes, citing the strength of the economy as a reason to wait for clearer insights into the impact of tariffs before making decisions [1][2]. - The Fed maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting, reflecting a cautious stance amid economic uncertainties [1][3]. - Market expectations have shifted slightly, with traders increasing bets on at least two rate cuts by the end of the year following Powell's comments [2][3]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell acknowledged that tariffs could lead to upward pressure on inflation and weaken economic growth, although the exact impact remains uncertain [1][2]. - He indicated that the effects of tariffs on inflation could be either temporary or more persistent, depending on various factors [5][6]. - The Fed's decision-making will be influenced by how quickly tariff effects are transmitted to prices and whether long-term inflation expectations remain anchored [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Powell described the overall economy and labor market as solid, with inflation having significantly decreased from mid-2022 highs but still slightly above the Fed's 2% target [6]. - He emphasized the need for vigilance against potential large-scale and sustained inflation shocks, indicating that the Fed has not fully restored price stability [6].

有三大主要原因可能让关税问题重新咆哮着回到投资者的视野中。 第一便是地缘政治近期盖过了贸易战的风头。近几周的以色列-伊朗冲突占据了投资者的大量注意力， 但该事件的风险似乎正在减弱。就波动性而言，下一只落地的靴子很可能就是特朗普贸易战的"新篇 章"。 其次，关税对通胀的影响可能存在滞后性。经济学家警告说，近几个月显示通胀降温的数据可能不会持 久。摩根士丹利表示，这是因为关税对价格的影响可能需要一段时间才能显现，并补充说，他们认为通 胀可能在今年夏末有所回升。美联储主席鲍威尔也表示，在6月、7月和8月将会看到关税对通胀产生显 著影响。 最后，美联储的政策可能因关税的滞后影响而变得复杂。市场，以及特朗普本人一直在呼吁美联储降低 利率，但如果通胀抬头，那将成为美联储和鲍威尔维持利率不变的又一个理由。 近期，关于关税的大部分焦点都集中在美联储维持利率不变的决定上，而特朗普对此一直持高度批评态 度。 摩根士丹利发出警告：注意7月9日！届时一场新的风暴将重新席卷全球市场…… 尽管市场因周二以色列与伊朗达成停火而松了一口气，但投资者很快就要重新思量另一个曾在今年早些 时候引爆市场波动的问题。 摩根士丹利在近期发表的一份报告中 ...

美联储纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近日的讲话，揭示了美国经济当前所面临的微妙转向：一方面是持续的价格压力，另一方面却是增长动能 的显著削弱。在他看来，贸易政策所引发的结构性冲击已开始对经济形成双重压制——既推高了成本，也削弱了劳动力供给和消费支 出。尤其是在特朗普政府维持高关税政策背景下，市场对"滞胀"风险的担忧已不再只是学术层面的猜测。 威廉姆斯预测，今年美国GDP增长将放缓至1%左右，失业率也将从当前的4.2%上升至4.5%。这对一个刚从疫情冲击中走出的经济体而言 无疑是一种警告信号。过去两年，美国经济的复苏更多得益于消费支出的强劲反弹和就业市场的快速修复，而如今这些支撑正在逐步减 弱。他特别提到关税政策对企业成本结构的改变、对移民供给的抑制以及对投资前景不确定性的增加，这些因素都在综合作用于当前的 增长路径。 由于关税带来的成本推动效应，威廉姆斯预计通胀率将在今年上升至3%，远高于美联储2%的政策目标。尽管他表示通胀将在未来两年逐 步回落，但这一判断本身也建立在诸多前提假设之上，例如能源价格稳定、全球供应链修复以及消费预期受控。一旦任何一个变量出现 偏离，通胀回落路径可能变得更长更曲折。 DLSM外汇认为在高利 ...