日元兑美元汇率直线拉升 北京时间1月23日15时40分左右， 日元兑美元汇率突然直线拉升。美 元兑日元短线跳水，跌约170点至157.50附近， 此前一度升至159.20上方。 刚刚 ，日元 兑美元汇率突然直线拉升。美 元兑日元短线跳水，跌约170点至157.50附近，此前一度升至159.20上方。 1月23日下午，日本央行行长植田和男在央行决策后的新闻发布会上表示， 由于市场波动性仍居高不下，将密切关注市场动 态。 他指出，12月加息后，市场环境依然宽松。他表示，为帮助形成稳定的收益率，该行可能会开展债券市场操作，当局已 准备 好在特殊情况下灵活开展市场操作。发布会上，他没有直接评论日元疲软问题。他表示，将继续关注汇率波动对价格趋 势的影响，加息步伐将取决于经济形势。他表示，央行独立性是实现价格目标的关键。 植田和男表示，日本总体通胀率"不久后将低于2%"，核心CPI持续低于目标的时间高度不确定。减税对财政的影响应由政府解 释。长期利率上升或受财政政策等多重因素驱动。 Justin Low表示，这看起来并非真正的干预行动，因为日本方面若真的采取实质性行动，其影响将会更为广泛和强烈。 所以，这只是一次"汇率测 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains its interest rate at 0.75% while raising economic growth expectations and retaining a hawkish inflation forecast, indicating confidence in Japan's moderate economic recovery, which supports the potential for further interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Bank of Japan decided to keep the policy benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, aligning with market expectations after a previous increase from 0.5% in December [1] - The central bank will consider the extent of corporate price increases starting in April when discussing potential rate hikes, with the specific path and pace of increases dependent on economic, price, and financial market conditions at that time [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Considerations - The impact of the previous rate hike in December is still being assessed, with a focus on the gradual rise in corporate funding demand and banks' lending attitudes remaining positive [2] - The central bank is closely monitoring the rising long-term interest rates, which have reached a ten-year high, and is prepared to take flexible measures to stabilize the bond market [1][2] Group 3: Inflation and Price Dynamics - Companies are increasingly raising prices not only to pass on raw material costs but also to cover rising labor costs, which is a significant factor for the central bank to monitor [3] - The upcoming April period is critical for price adjustments, but it is not the sole determinant for rate hike timing; various data will be analyzed to assess the sustainability of current trends in prices and wages [3][4] Group 4: Future Rate Hike Considerations - The central bank will evaluate the actual impact of previous rate hikes on corporate investment, overall investment, and consumer spending, as well as the subsequent effects on inflation, which requires a considerable amount of time [4] - The decision-making process for future rate hikes will involve a comprehensive assessment of economic data and signals, with a focus on the marginal changes in the financial environment and high-frequency surveys of businesses [4]

该行周五宣布维持政策利率在0.75%，符合所有受访经济学家的预期。该行将继续评估上月加息的影 响，并等待可能影响国家支出计划的提前选举结果。这使得借贷成本维持在三十年来的最高水平。 在最新季度展望中，该行上调了六项通胀预测中的四项，并重申若展望实现将提高借贷成本。政策委员 会成员高田创投票支持加息，凸显他对通胀趋势强劲的担忧，其余委员则支持按兵不动。 "从上调通胀展望来看，我认为近期日元贬值正在产生影响，我预计加息路径将继续推进，"S&P Global Market Intelligence经济学家Harumi Taguchi表示。 日本央行维持基准利率不变，上调通胀展望，为下次加息可能比原本预期的夏季更早到来留下了空间。 该行周五宣布维持政策利率在0.75%，符合所有受访经济学家的预期。该行将继续评估上月加息的影 响，并等待可能影响国家支出计划的提前选举结果。这使得借贷成本维持在三十年来的最高水平。 在最新季度展望中，该行上调了六项通胀预测中的四项，并重申若展望实现将提高借贷成本。政策委员 会成员高田创投票支持加息，凸显他对通胀趋势强劲的担忧，其余委员则支持按兵不动。 "从上调通胀展望来看，我认为近期日元贬 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains its policy interest rate at 0.75%, aligning with market expectations, while raising its medium- to long-term inflation forecasts, indicating a more optimistic assessment of price pressures [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The BOJ's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, stated that underlying inflation is expected to continue rising moderately, and if the economic situation develops as anticipated, the bank will continue to raise interest rates [1] - BOJ members Takeda and Tamura proposed modifying the wording of the outlook report, but their proposal was voted down [1] - Ueda noted that the financial environment remains accommodative following the December rate hike, and the effects of the rate increase on the real economy and prices will take time to materialize [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Ueda emphasized that inflation is unlikely to significantly exceed the latest forecasts, with overall inflation likely to fall below the 2% target as potential inflation approaches 2% [2] - The BOJ will closely monitor even minor fluctuations in exchange rates and will collaborate with the government to communicate its stance on interest rate hikes [2] - Ueda indicated that the timing of potential rate hikes will consider price changes in April, but this is just one factor in policy decisions [2] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market - The yen continued to weaken during the press conference, with the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing 159 for the first time since January 14 [3] - Ueda mentioned that the BOJ may conduct bond operations flexibly under special circumstances to encourage stable yield formation, particularly due to instability in the supply and demand of long-term Japanese government bonds influenced by fiscal year-end factors [1][2]

新加坡2025年整体通胀降至0.9%，核心通胀回落至0.7%，显著低于2024年水平，符合新加坡金管局政 策目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown a slight increase against the US dollar (USD), supported by positive domestic economic data and a weakening USD, although overbought signals indicate potential for a pullback [1][4]. Economic Data - Australia's economic indicators have been strong, with the January manufacturing PMI rising to 52.4 from 51.6, and the services PMI increasing significantly from 51.1 to 56.0, indicating robust demand and economic momentum [1]. - Employment data also reflects a strong labor market, with December job changes recorded at 65.2K, significantly improving from the revised November figure of 28.7K, and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, below the expected 4.4% [1]. Inflation Trends - Recent inflation data shows a rebound, with the December TD-MI inflation indicator increasing to 3.5% year-on-year from 3.2%, and a month-on-month surge of 1.0%, the fastest since December 2023 [2]. - Despite a decrease in core CPI to 3.4% in November, it remains above the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, prompting calls for caution from the IMF regarding ongoing inflation concerns [2]. USD Performance - The USD has been weak, with the DXY index stabilizing around 98.30, influenced by US economic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations [4]. - The US GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.4%, slightly above expectations, while initial jobless claims were lower than anticipated at 200,000 [4]. Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD pair is showing a clear bullish pattern, trading around 0.6850, with technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout above the upper channel [5]. - If the pair closes above the upper channel, it may target 0.6942, while key support is at 0.6762; a drop below this level could weaken momentum and test further support at 0.6680 [5].

本文字数：2876，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 后歆桐 23日，日本央行以8：1的投票比例决定维持政策利率在0.75%。日本央行审议委员高田创持反对意见， 他支持将基准利率提高至1%。上月，日本央行将政策利率上调至1995年以来的最高水平。 日本央行表示，若经济和物价走势与其预测一致，并随着经济和物价的改善，将继续上调政策利率；经 济前景面临的风险大致平衡，通胀前景面临的风险大致平衡；前景风险包括贸易政策对海外经济的影 响、国内企业的工资和价格设定行为，以及金融和外汇市场的发展。 同时，日本央行还更新了季度经济增长预期，预计2025~2027财年核心消费者价格指数（CPI）中值分 别为2.7%、1.9%、2.0%，去年10月预期为2.7%、1.8%和2.0%；预计2025~2027财年实际GDP增速中值 分别为0.9%、1.0%、0.8%，去年10月预期为0.7%、0.7%和1.0%。日本央行称，核心消费者通胀率在今 年上半年可能放缓至2%以下，在2025~2027财年预测期的后半段，潜在核心消费者通胀率可能处于与 2%目标基本一致的水平。 2026.01.23 隔夜掉期市场的定价显示，交易员认为日 ...

2026.01. 23 本文字数：2876，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 23日，日本央行以8：1的投票比例决定维持政策利率在0.75%。日本央行审议委员高田创持反对意见，他支持将基准利 率提高至1%。上月，日本央行将政策利率上调至1995年以来的最高水平。 日本央行表示，若经济和物价走势与其预测一致，并随着经济和物价的改善，将继续上调政策利率；经济前景面临的风险 大致平衡，通胀前景面临的风险大致平衡；前景风险包括贸易政策对海外经济的影响、国内企业的工资和价格设定行为， 以及金融和外汇市场的发展。 同时，日本央行还更新了季度经济增长预期，预计2025~2027财年核心消费者价格指数（CPI）中值分别为2.7%、 1.9%、2.0%，去年10月预期为2.7%、1.8%和2.0%；预计2025~2027财年实际GDP增速中值分别为0.9%、1.0%、 0.8%，去年10月预期为0.7%、0.7%和1.0%。日本央行称，核心消费者通胀率在今年上半年可能放缓至2%以下，在 2025~2027财年预测期的后半段，潜在核心消费者通胀率可能处于与2%目标基本一致的水平。 今日稍早公布的数据显示，日本去年1 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.75% with an 8:1 voting ratio, while one member advocated for an increase to 1% [1] - The central bank updated its quarterly economic growth forecasts, projecting core CPI medians for fiscal years 2025-2027 at 2.7%, 1.9%, and 2.0%, respectively [1] - The Bank of Japan indicated that if economic and price trends align with its predictions, it will continue to raise policy rates [1] Group 2 - Japan's CPI excluding fresh food rose by 2.4% year-on-year in December, a decrease from 3% in November, aligning with economists' median expectations [2] - The yen has depreciated significantly, with the exchange rate against the dollar reaching 158.61, raising concerns about potential early interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3] - Market expectations for the next interest rate hike have shifted, with a 58% probability for April, up from 38% in December [3] Group 3 - The Japanese government is increasingly focused on the yen's depreciation and its impact on inflation, with potential implications for future interest rate decisions [3][4] - The upcoming elections and government fiscal policies, including significant tax cuts, are expected to influence market dynamics and bond yields [6][7] - Concerns over Japan's fiscal health are rising, with total government debt projected to reach 229.6% of GDP by the end of 2025, potentially leading to higher long-term bond yields [8] Group 4 - The Nikkei 225 index reacted positively to the government's plans for economic re-inflation and the dissolution of the House of Representatives [8] - Ongoing corporate governance reforms in Japan are expected to enhance capital efficiency and profitability, supporting long-term stock market performance [8]

格隆汇1月23日｜日本央行对经济前景的表态更加乐观，这促使凯投宏观认为，其加息时间可能早于此 前预期。日本央行在2026年首次政策会议上维持利率不变，同时上调了本财年和下一财年的GDP增长预 测。凯投宏观的Marcel Thieliant指出，尽管政府在去年11月宣布了能源补贴措施，日本央行并未下调对 通胀的判断，这使他不再认为潜在通胀会持续低迷，而是将温和上行。由于实际政策利率仍处于深度负 值区间，进一步收紧政策几乎已成定局。即便未来可能推出消费税减免、对价格形成一定扭曲，凯投宏 观仍认为通胀压力将保持坚挺。该机构此前预测日本央行将于7月加息，如今风险倾向于提前行动。无 论如何，该机构预计到2027年底政策利率将升至1.75%。 ...