Core Points - The WTO meeting highlighted concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade and the importance of a rules-based multilateral trading system [1][3] - The EU warned that global trade is expected to decline due to increased trade policy uncertainty, with a projected 0.2% shrinkage in goods trade volume by 2025 [3] - Canada emphasized that U.S. tariffs disrupt global trade and undermine the predictability of the international trading system [3][5] - Norway called for WTO reform to address the challenges posed by current trade policies and their impact on global economic stability [4][5] - Australia expressed concerns over unilateral trade measures and their potential to undermine a system that has benefited all members for decades [5] - China criticized the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" as a violation of WTO rules, asserting that it disrupts global supply chains and the international trading system [6] Summary by Category Trade Policy Concerns - Canada, the EU, and Norway raised alarms about the negative effects of U.S. tariffs on global trade and the need for a stable trading environment [3][4][5] - The EU highlighted the importance of transparency and dialogue in building trust and predictability in international markets [3] WTO Reform - Norway and Switzerland stressed the necessity for reforming the WTO to adapt to changing economic realities and improve its functions [4] - Australia and Japan underscored the critical role of a free, fair, and open economic system for global economic health [5] U.S. Tariff Impact - The U.S. tariffs have been described as severely disrupting global trade and creating an unstable environment for consumers and businesses [3][5] - China firmly opposed the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs," labeling them as a direct violation of WTO principles [6]

Group 1 - BRICS countries called for a joint resistance against unilateralism and trade protectionism during a special meeting, with China criticizing the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy as harmful to the rights of nations and expressing willingness to cooperate with BRICS members to address the impact of US measures on global trade order [1] - The US House of Representatives' fundraising committee passed a multi-trillion dollar tax cut proposal from the Trump administration, with negotiations on the bill's details ongoing, aiming for a vote in the House by the end of the month [1] - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson noted that tariffs and uncertainty could suppress economic growth and raise inflation, but monetary policy is ready to adjust as needed, emphasizing the increased policy uncertainty and unclear impact of tariffs on prices [1] Group 2 - European Central Bank regulators required some Eurozone banks to assess scenarios of dollar demand pressure, simulating operations without reliance on the Federal Reserve for dollar supply, reflecting concerns over the uncertainty of dollar supply under the Trump administration [2] - Recent discussions between US and South Korean Treasury officials on exchange rate policies sparked market speculation about Trump potentially adopting a "trade for exchange rate" strategy to induce dollar depreciation; however, insiders revealed that the US has not made exchange rate commitments a condition for tariff reductions in global trade negotiations [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.21% to 42,051.06 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.1% to 5,892.58 points, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.72% to 19,146.81 points [3] - COMEX gold futures dropped by 2.07% to $3,180.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell by 2.15% to $32.39 per ounce [3] - The main contract for US oil decreased by 1.23% to $62.89 per barrel, and the main contract for Brent crude oil also fell by 1.23% to $65.81 per barrel [3] - The 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 4.65 basis points to 4.042%, the 5-year yield increased by 6.73 basis points to 4.162%, the 10-year yield went up by 6.93 basis points to 4.534%, and the 30-year yield climbed by 6.57 basis points to 4.971% [3] - The US dollar index increased by 0.10% to 101.08, with the euro down by 0.09% against the dollar at 1.1175, the British pound down by 0.32% at 1.3262, and the Australian dollar down by 0.64% at 0.6429 [3]

Group 1 - The Indian government has submitted a notification to the WTO, seeking to impose additional tariffs on certain U.S. goods in response to long-standing tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum products by the U.S. [1] - The U.S. imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum in 2018, resulting in an estimated loss of $1.2 billion for Indian exports [1] - The U.S. has consistently maintained that its tariffs are based on "national security" concerns, refusing to classify them as "safeguard measures" under WTO rules [1] Group 2 - India's proposed countermeasures will target U.S. agricultural products such as pulses and nuts, as well as high-value chemical goods, aiming to balance losses in the Indian steel and aluminum sectors [2] - The countermeasures are intended to provide the Indian steel industry with time to adjust to the impacts of U.S. tariffs, which have significantly reduced India's steel exports to the U.S. in 2024 [2] - Analysts suggest that while India is taking a strong stance on tariffs, the actual impact of these countermeasures may be limited due to the unilateral nature of U.S. tariffs, which disregard international trade rules [2]

据多家美国媒体的最新报道，在美国纽约，一个连美国人都几乎没听说过的法院，这两天正成为舆论焦点。 因为这个名叫"美国国际贸易法院"的机构，正在审理一起案件，即美国今年4月2日对全世界超过180个国家和地区征收"对等关税"，是否违反 了美国的法律。 从美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）的报道来看，已经于北京时间5月14日凌晨开庭审理的这起诉讼，是由五家很依赖外国进口产品的美 国本土企业在今年4月中旬提起的。 这五家企业聘请的律师认为，美国政府在4月2日对全世界众多国家和地区加征"对等关税"违反了美国宪法。其论据可以简单概括为以下两点： 美国宪法没有明确给予总统对外加征关税的权力，这个权力应该是属于国会的；虽然美国有一个名叫《国际紧急经济权力法》的法律，授权总 统可以在面对"不寻常与特别的威胁"时，对与别国的贸易进行干预，但该法律不仅没有明说总统可以加关税，而且贸易逆差也不属于"不寻常 与特别的威胁"，而是国际贸易中常见的情况。 由此，原告方希望成立于1980年的美国国际贸易法院，能够拦下白宫于4月2日对全世界超过180个国家和地区征收的"对等关税"，并让美国政 府用这段时间加征的关税来补偿利益受损的5家原告企业 ...

鸿海董事长：对等关税及汇率变动之下，对未来持较审慎的看法。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, highlighting President Trump's criticisms of the EU's trade practices and the ongoing negotiations aimed at resolving these issues [1][2][5]. Trade Negotiations - The U.S. and EU have initiated trade negotiations, with the EU proposing a framework that includes investments in liquefied natural gas and artificial intelligence, as well as cooperation in strategic sectors like steel, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [4][5]. - The EU's trade commissioner emphasized the need for a solution through negotiations while preparing for potential countermeasures if talks fail [5][10]. Trade Imbalances - In 2024, approximately 750,000 cars were exported from the EU to the U.S., while only 170,000 cars were exported from the U.S. to the EU, indicating a significant trade imbalance [2]. - The total trade volume between the U.S. and EU was nearly $1 trillion last year, underscoring the economic significance of their relationship [6]. EU's Countermeasures - The EU has prepared a list of products worth €95 billion for potential tariffs in response to U.S. tariffs, which includes various industrial and agricultural goods [11][12]. - The EU is considering using all available trade defense measures, including a new tool that allows for counter-sanctions against economic coercion [13]. Digital Services Tax - The EU may impose tariffs on U.S. digital services, particularly targeting advertising revenues, which could significantly impact U.S. tech companies that rely heavily on the European market [14][15]. - The implementation of a digital services tax faces challenges due to differing interests among EU member states, complicating the potential for a unified approach [15].

不过，欧洲汽车制造商协会的数据显示，2024年从欧盟出口到美国的汽车约为75万辆，而从美国出口到欧洲的汽 车为17万辆。 目前，美欧之间已经启动了贸易谈判，欧盟提出了一份可能构成正式贸易谈判基础的方案。据报道，这些选项包 括在液化天然气和人工智能（AI）等领域进行投资，以及在钢铁、汽车、芯片、航空、制药和关键原材料等战略 领域开展合作。 据央视报道，欧盟委员会（下称"欧委会"）执行副主席兼贸易委员东布罗夫斯基斯在12日重申，欧盟将继续致力 于与美国通过谈判找到解决方案，同时推进与各成员国的合作，以便在必要时制定可能的应对措施。 英国杜伦大学跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明教授对第一财经记者表示，美欧之间在贸易方面的问题 在于，特朗普政府认为欧盟存在过度监管和非关税壁垒问题，譬如对科技公司的征税以及征收增值税等等，美方 或寻求通过项目的方式来削减欧盟的相关壁垒。 特朗普"变脸"，贝森特吐槽欧洲 "我认为美国和欧洲（谈成协议）可能会慢一些。"贝森特表示。 美国总统特朗普再次把"炮口"对准欧盟。 在当地时间12日的白宫记者会上，特朗普表示，欧盟"更过分"，欧盟对待美国非常不公平。他称，欧盟对美卖了 1300万 ...

观察者网消息，中美经贸高层会谈取得成果，双方同意在90天内降低关税，将税率下调115%。 "很明显，（美国总统）特朗普先眨眼了。"当地时间5月12日，美国经济学家拉里·萨默斯接受美国有线电 视新闻网（CNN）节目采访时如此说道。萨默斯曾在克林顿政府时期担任财政部长，并在奥巴马政府时期 担任白宫国家经济委员会主任，目前为哈佛大学教授及名誉校长。 当被问及特朗普和中国谁"眨眼"了时，萨默斯回答："我认为很明显，是特朗普眨眼了。毕竟美国信誓旦旦 地说过，将无限期地实施关税政策。相较之下，中国没有对其政策做出任何重大或显著性的改变。" "有时候，退一步海阔天空，"萨默斯进一步指出，"犯了错，通常最好的做法是改正错误，然后退一步，即 使这会带来一些尴尬。我赞赏美财长贝森特采取的行动，并赞赏他的领导能力。" 据萨默斯在社交媒体X平台发布推文，当天，他接受CNN采访时谈到了中美经贸高层会谈。 萨默斯表示，中美会谈取得成果，对市场来说"可能是一个有效信号，表明特朗普政府正在放弃对美国经 济极具惩罚性的对华关税政策"。他说道，特朗普宣布"对等关税"后，美国出现了一个相当清晰的模式：关 税承诺增加，市场下跌；有放弃的迹象出现，市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The tariff exemption greatly exceeded market expectations, and the tariff trading is capricious, with the consensus expectation likely to reverse. Equities have odds, while bonds require caution. A robust trading framework should be established to guide investments in the year of tariffs. The impact of tariffs on the bond market should also be closely monitored [5][12]. Summary by Directory 1. How to Analyze the So - called "Reciprocal Tariffs"? - The most common analogy is to compare the "reciprocal tariffs" to the continuation of the 2018 China - US trade war, which affects the risk appetite of equity assets and the counter - cyclical adjustment mechanism. The intuitive "fast thinking" is that increased tariffs lead to reduced exports, affecting GDP and shifting the interest rate center downward [13]. - However, "comparing to 2018" is a view mainly held by A - share investors. The US economic and investment circles emphasize the 1930s Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act, but its reference value is questionable. The current trade war is a cyclical change in US trade policy, and tariffs are also a political movement to some extent [15][16]. - The market's previous over - pessimistic pricing and the current view that tariffs have quickly failed may oversimplify the complexity of the political impact of tariffs [20]. 2. The Cyclical Perspective of US Trade Policy - Since its establishment, the US federal government has been closely related to tariffs, with the initial goals of maintaining fiscal balance and protecting manufacturing. Economic and industrial changes lead to changes in tariff policies under the political cycle [7][21]. - Tariff policy is a policy that emphasizes regions rather than parties. Trade concept changes often play an important role in the six party realignments in US history [23]. - The current differences in the Trump administration are normal in US democratic politics and do not necessarily mean the failure of the tariff bill. In 2025, few technology companies, ordinary consumers, or manufacturing unions support the current radical tariff bill [26]. 3. The Economic Results of Trade Policy: Doubtful and Unimportant - The economic impact of trade policy can be understood from two aspects: its impact on the economy determines the direction and magnitude of the market, and its feedback on trade policy affects the market rhythm. The economic results of tariffs, both positive and negative, are doubtful [32]. - Historical evidence shows that trade protection policies have limited effects on enhancing industrial competitiveness and may have negative impacts on consumers and the overall economy [37]. 4. How to Set up a Robust and Investment - Guiding Trading Framework in the Year of Tariffs? - Step 1: Set a baseline for the possible final outcome of tariffs by reviewing the historical cyclical tariff policies of the US. - Step 2: Make qualitative predictions, such as the dollar appreciation ratio, the intervention rhythm of administrative departments and Congress, the frequency of opposition cases or lawsuits, and the counter - impact of public opinion and asset prices on tariff policy intensity. - Step 3: Conduct long - short trading if the implied expectation of short - term market fluctuations exceeds the set baseline, and adjust the baseline expectation if new developments deviate from the assumptions [39]. 5. Back to the Domestic Bond Market: Pay Attention to the Technical Attenuation of Tariff Factors - Since March, the bond market has experienced "oversold rebound → trading tariff factors → correction of tariff factors". In May, the bond market is likely to return to the main logic of March, and the reasons behind the "liability shortage" may not have simply ended [7][41][42].

Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The US and China have significantly reduced extreme tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending 24%, while retaining a 10% base tariff[1] - The 10% tariff may serve as the lower limit for US tariffs on China, with potential adjustments ranging from 10% to 30%[1] - The suspension of the 24% tariffs is temporary, with a possibility of reactivation after 90 days[1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate risks for Chinese exports to the US, thereby stabilizing the economic outlook[1] - The trade negotiations are anticipated to positively impact A-shares and the overall market, with short-term boosts expected[1] - Long-term economic recovery may be accelerated by domestic monetary policies, benefiting export-oriented companies[1] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Geopolitical risks, unexpected increases in international oil prices, and a weaker-than-expected US job market are potential risk factors[1] - The ongoing US debt ceiling issue complicates fiscal stability, making tariff revenue more critical than extreme tariffs[1] - The political pressure from midterm elections may influence further tariff adjustments by the Trump administration[1]