宏观经济周报 2025 年第 35 周 2025 年 8 月 25 日 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.icbc.com.cn 周烨 (852) 2683 3232 dorothy.zhou@icbci.icbc.com.cn 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数进一步扩张，显示中国经济动能持续增强，修复 态势从初步企稳走向更具广度和深度的协调扩张。四大分项指标全线走强，构 成经济运行的多重支撑。其中，消费景气指数显著上行，重回扩张区间并创近 一个月来新高，反映出居民消费信心加快恢复，服务类消费表现尤为亮眼。投 资景气指数进一步提升，政策驱动下的基建和制造业投资持续扩张。生产景气 指数显著改善，产能利用率大幅抬升，供给端延续良好韧性，成为当前经济增 长的重要引擎。出口景气指数同步回升，在外部需求整体偏弱的背景下展现出 较强适应能力和结构优势。总体而言，本周经济运行从边际修复走向实质扩 张，展现出消费、投资、生产与出口协同发力的积极格局，政策效应持续释 放，经济增长基础进一步夯实。 2025 年 7 月中国经济运行保持了稳中有进的发展态势。内需稳步恢复， ...

Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady growth trend, with industrial added value above designated size increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in July and 6.3% from January to July [1][3] - The service industry continues to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to economic stability [6] Industrial Production - Industrial production maintains robust growth, with high-quality development progressing steadily, showcasing resilience and potential [1] - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 9.3% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in integrated circuits and electronic materials [2] - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors are key contributors, with respective growth rates of 8.4% and 9.3% [1][2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment continues to expand, with a total of 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, marking a 1.6% year-on-year increase [3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, with high-tech industries such as aerospace and information services seeing substantial increases [3] Consumer Market - Retail sales showed positive growth, with total retail sales reaching 38,780 billion yuan in July, up 3.7% year-on-year [4] - Online retail sales increased by 9.2%, indicating a strong shift towards e-commerce [4][5] - The consumption upgrade policy, including trade-in programs, has positively impacted sales of upgraded goods [5] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's contribution to economic growth is significant, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in added value in the first half of 2025 [6] - The service production index rose by 5.8% in July, with information technology services growing at 11.9% [6]

Economic Overview - In July, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.3%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.6 percentage points [3] - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with the manufacturing value of digital products growing by 8.4% in July [3] - The total import and export volume in July increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [4] High-Tech Manufacturing - The production of industrial robots increased by 24%, while the production of civilian drones rose by 18.9% [3] - Investment in high-end industries has increased significantly, with aerospace and equipment manufacturing investment rising by 33.9% [7] Foreign Trade - The export of high-tech products grew by 7.2%, with integrated circuit exports increasing by 21.8% [4] - The diversification of trade is evident, with exports to ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road countries growing by 14.8%, 8.2%, and 11.7% respectively [4] Consumer Market - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 28.7%, while furniture sales rose by 20.6% in July [5] - The service retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.2% from January to July [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year, with real growth (adjusted for price factors) estimated between 4% and 5% [7] - Investment in the manufacturing sector increased by 6.2%, significantly higher than the overall investment growth rate [7] Price Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a positive change, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [8] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, indicating a strengthening market demand [8]

Core Insights - The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, accounting for nearly 1/4 of China's economic output, shows robust economic growth with significant contributions from various provinces and cities [1][2]. Provincial Overview - Jiangsu has the highest GDP at 66,967.8 billion yuan, ranking second nationally; Zhejiang has the fastest growth rate at 5.8%; Anhui and Jiangsu also exceed the national growth rate [2][3]. - Shanghai's GDP reached 26,222.15 billion yuan, moving up from 11th to 9th nationally [2]. City-Level Performance - All nine cities in the YRD with GDP over 1 trillion yuan surpassed 5,000 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with Wenzhou and Xuzhou nearing this threshold [8][10]. - Notable cities include Suzhou (13,002.35 billion yuan), Hangzhou (11,303 billion yuan), and Nanjing (9,179.18 billion yuan), all showing growth rates above the national average [9][10]. Sectoral Contributions - The tertiary sector remains the main economic driver, with Shanghai's tertiary industry growing by 5.4%, contributing significantly to GDP growth [4][6]. - In the secondary sector, Anhui leads with a growth rate of 6.4%, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang also show strong performance [6][12]. Emerging Cities - Cities like Shaoxing have reached new GDP milestones, with Shaoxing surpassing 4,000 billion yuan for the first time [12][14]. - Wenzhou and Xuzhou are targeting to become trillion-yuan cities by 2025, indicating strong economic ambitions [10][12]. Growth Trends - Seventeen cities in the YRD achieved GDP growth rates of 6% or higher, with notable performances from cities like Zhoushan and Shaoxing [13][14]. - The overall economic performance of the YRD is characterized by stability, with very few cities experiencing growth rates below 4% [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the economic performance of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, which accounts for nearly 25% of China's total economic output, showcasing its resilience and growth potential through the analysis of the first half of 2025 GDP reports from 41 cities in the region [2][5]. Provincial Level Summary - In the first half of 2025, the total GDP of Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui reached 163,916.95 billion yuan, maintaining a stable position above the "15 trillion yuan threshold" [2]. - Jiangsu had the highest GDP at 66,967.8 billion yuan, ranking second nationally, while Zhejiang recorded the fastest growth rate at 5.8% [5][6]. - Shanghai's GDP was 26,222.15 billion yuan, rising from 11th to 9th place nationally, with a growth rate of 5.1% [5][6]. City Level Summary - All nine cities in the YRD with a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan reported GDPs above 5,000 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with Wenzhou and Xuzhou nearing this threshold [3][11]. - Notably, Shaoxing's GDP surpassed 4,000 billion yuan for the first time, while Chuzhou and Huzhou crossed the 2,000 billion yuan mark [3][13]. Economic Structure and Growth - The tertiary sector remains the main driver of economic growth in the region, with Shanghai's tertiary industry growing by 5.4% and accounting for a record high of 79.09% of its GDP [6][7]. - The contribution of the service sector to Shanghai's GDP was significant, particularly in finance and logistics, while manufacturing's contribution was relatively smaller [7]. - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui's tertiary industry value added accounted for 55.0%, 59.82%, and 56.33% of their GDP, respectively, all exceeding 50% [8]. Notable City Performances - In the first half of 2025, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Nanjing each exceeded 1 trillion yuan in GDP, with respective figures of 13,002.35 billion yuan, 11,303 billion yuan, and 9,179.18 billion yuan [11]. - The growth rates of cities such as Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Hefei were above the national average, with Hefei leading at 6% [11][12]. Growth Trends - Seventeen cities in the YRD achieved GDP growth rates of 6% or higher, with notable performances from cities like Zhoushan and Shaoxing [12][15]. - The overall economic performance of the YRD in the first half of 2025 was characterized by stability, with only a few cities reporting growth rates below 4% [15].

Economic Overview - July economic data shows marginal weakening, with declines in social retail sales, investment, industrial output, and service production indices compared to June [1][6] - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year was better than expected, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [6] Export and Import Data - In July, total goods import and export amounted to 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan, growing 8.0% [2][3] - Despite a decrease in exports to the US due to tariff adjustments, China's overall export performance remains resilient, particularly in non-US markets [2][3] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales in July reached 3.88 trillion yuan, growing only 3.7%, marking the lowest monthly growth this year [2][3] - The slowdown in retail growth is attributed to the temporary suspension of the "trade-in" policy in some regions [3][8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to July totaled 28.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, reflecting a decline from the previous months [3][4] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, both showing a decrease compared to earlier months [3][4] Policy Implications - The government is expected to enhance macroeconomic policies, including fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts, to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market [5][6][8] - The introduction of the third batch of 690 billion yuan in "national subsidies" is anticipated to boost retail sales in August [3][8] Sectoral Performance - New industries are experiencing rapid investment growth, with aerospace and computer equipment manufacturing seeing increases of 33.9% and 16% respectively from January to July [4] - The renewable energy sector also shows strong investment growth, with solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower investments rising by 21.9% [4]

Economic Overview - In July, the international environment was complex and severe, with extreme weather conditions impacting economic operations, yet key economic indicators remained stable overall [1][8] - The industrial production increased by 5.7% year-on-year in July, while the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year [1][3] Industrial Production - The industrial production showed a steady and relatively fast growth, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in July [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector performed well, with an increase of 8.4% in added value, and high-tech manufacturing saw a growth of 9.3%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points respectively [3] - The "two new" policies continued to show positive effects, with significant growth in specific industries such as shipbuilding and electric motor manufacturing, which grew by 29.7% and 15.9% respectively [3] Investment Trends - From January to July, fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with actual growth estimated between 4% to 5% after adjusting for price factors [3][4] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2% year-on-year, significantly higher than the overall investment growth rate, with aerospace and computer equipment manufacturing investments increasing by 33.9% and 16% respectively [4] Consumer Market - In July, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to June [6] - The sales of home appliances and communication devices saw substantial growth, with increases of 28.7% and 14.9% respectively [6] - Service retail maintained stability, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% from January to July, supported by active markets in sports events, movies, and cultural tourism [6] Future Outlook - The economic foundation remains stable with strong potential for growth, supported by effective macroeconomic policies and increased market demand [8][9] - The government plans to implement policies to lower credit costs for personal consumption and service industry loans, which is expected to stimulate consumption and promote service sector growth [9] - The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecast for China's economy by 0.8 percentage points, indicating increased international confidence in China's economic development [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the economic performance of China in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a nominal growth in fixed asset investment of 1.6% year-on-year, with actual growth adjusted for price factors estimated at around 4%-5% [3][4]. - The decline in nominal investment growth is attributed to several factors, including adverse weather conditions, complex external environments, intensified domestic competition, and a decrease in investment returns, alongside a weakening of traditional industry investment momentum during the transition to new industries [3][4]. - Despite the nominal growth decline, the physical workload of investments remains robust, particularly driven by innovation and large-scale equipment updates, leading to a continuous optimization of investment structure [3][4]. Group 2 - Manufacturing investment has seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% in the first seven months, outpacing overall investment growth. Notable sectors include textiles and apparel (25.2%), automotive manufacturing (21.7%), and general equipment manufacturing (14.8%) [3][4]. - Investment in high-end industries has also increased, with aerospace and equipment manufacturing up by 33.9%, computer and office equipment manufacturing by 16%, and information services by 32.8% [4]. - Key infrastructure investments have grown, particularly in water management (12.6%) and information transmission (8.3%), with large-scale equipment purchases contributing significantly to overall investment growth [4]. - Investments in green energy transition are steadily increasing, with combined investments in solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower generation rising by 21.9% year-on-year [4]. Group 3 - Overall, China's investment scale continues to expand, and the investment structure is improving, with pressures on investment growth being viewed as temporary [5]. - The potential for future investment remains substantial, with significant gaps in per capita capital stock compared to developed countries, necessitating increased investment in new productive forces, urban-rural coordination, and social welfare [5]. - The focus moving forward will be on maintaining high-quality development, advancing the construction of a unified national market, optimizing the investment environment, and stimulating private investment to promote effective investment and sustainable economic growth [5].

Economic Growth and Structure - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with final consumption contributing over 50% to economic growth, indicating a strong recovery in demand [1][2] - The shift from scale expansion to quality improvement is evident, with high-tech industries, particularly information services and aerospace manufacturing, showing significant growth [2][3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Special bond issuance accelerated, with over 2.1 trillion yuan issued, a 667 billion yuan increase from the previous year, supporting infrastructure investment [3][4] - The central bank's monetary policy focused on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs, with the average interest rate on new loans dropping to 3.3%, a decrease of 45 basis points year-on-year [3][4] Sectoral Performance - Retail sales in categories like home appliances and communication devices grew over 20% year-on-year, reflecting a strong consumer demand driven by policies such as "trade-in for new" [2][3] - High-end manufacturing, including semiconductors and robotics, is expected to benefit from increased demand, showcasing resilience in exports with a 5.9% year-on-year growth in dollar terms [4][5] Policy Outlook - There is potential for further fiscal policy expansion, particularly in new infrastructure and social welfare sectors, while monetary policy may focus on improving the efficiency of existing funds [5][6] - The emphasis on structural optimization and collaboration in policy implementation is expected to support sustained high-quality economic development [6]

Group 1 - The service industry in China showed a strong growth in the first half of the year, with a value added of 39,031.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and accounting for 59.1% of the GDP, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][2] - The contribution rate of the service industry to national economic growth was 60.2%, up by 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, with the service sector driving GDP growth by 3.2 percentage points, an increase of 0.5 percentage points [2] - In the second quarter, the service industry added value reached 19,517.2 billion yuan, growing by 5.7% year-on-year, with a contribution rate to economic growth rising to 61.2% [2] Group 2 - The service retail sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.2 percentage points, while per capita service consumption expenditure rose by 4.9%, accounting for 45.5% of total per capita consumption expenditure [2] - Cultural and tourism consumption saw significant growth, with tourism services and cultural sports services increasing by 31.9% and 7.4% respectively, and the national box office exceeding 29.2 billion yuan, growing over 20% year-on-year [3] Group 3 - The high-tech service sector experienced robust demand, with fixed asset investment in high-tech services growing by 8.6% year-on-year, and investment in information services increasing by 37.4% [5] - The business activity index for the service industry remained above the critical point, averaging 50.2, indicating continued expansion and positive market expectations [6][7] Group 4 - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is deepening, with high-tech service enterprises showing revenue growth of 9.9% and strategic emerging service enterprises growing by 9.5% from January to May [4] - The digital technology application sector also saw a revenue increase of 11.2% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing innovation and optimization in digital service supply [4]