供给边际收缩与库存压力并存，EG延续悲观情绪 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力期货价格从9月30日的4207元/吨下跌至10月 9日的4158元/吨，跌幅1.16%，呈现连续五日震荡下行趋势；华东现货价格 同步下跌45元/吨至4230元/吨，期现基差从63元/吨大幅走扩至112元/吨， 期货贴水加深，反映现货市场短期支撑强于期货预期。跨期价差方面，1-5 价差小幅走弱至-77元/吨，近月合约承压明显。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量环比增长6.77%至33.53万手，成交量同步增 加6.35%至14.55万手，持仓与成交双增表明市场分歧加剧，空头资金在价 格下行中主动增仓。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率下降1个百分点至70.33%，其中油制装置开工 率降幅显著（-1.6个百分点至75.3%），煤制开工率维持62.95%不变，成本 压力下油制产能收缩对供给端形成边际支撑。 需求端 ：聚酯工厂负荷稳定于89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持63.43%，终端需 求未见明显改善，下游刚需采购为主，聚酯环节对乙二醇的消耗缺乏增量 驱动。 库存端 ：华东主港库存环比增加5.9万吨至48.57万吨，张家港库存单周激 增 ...

| | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5600-6200 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 6600-7200 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2511 | 卖出 | 25% | 6850-695 0 | | | 跌 | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若苯乙烯上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 EB2511C7 | 000 | 卖出 | 50% | 45-60 | | | | | 为了防止苯乙烯上涨而 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA： 6、预期：从成本端来看，供需过剩预期维持，但过剩压力体现仍需要时间，油价预计维持区间震荡。国内外短流程提负以及部 分装置推迟检修后带来的 PX 增量较为明显，而需求端在 PTA 效益大幅压缩后，新装置投产推迟以及检修明朗，对 PX 需求预 期存在进一步影响，PXN 预计偏弱表现，成本力度支撑一般。10 月英力士，恒力均有检修计划，且逸盛大化和海南尚未确定重 启时间，供应端开工率一般性，而从需求来看，随着 9 月下产销放量，聚酯工厂库存大幅下降有可能延缓聚酯降负预期，供需 面预计紧平衡状态。 1、基本面：国庆中秋假期期间，PTA市场整体呈现 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is expected to face increasing supply pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain weak, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $65 - $67 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be in a state of weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, and the valuation is relatively high [4][5][6]. - The fuel oil market, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur, is expected to be weak. High - sulfur fuel oil is affected by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and lack of demand drivers [6][8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to oscillate. Their prices are greatly influenced by oil prices and the macro - economic situation, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [10][12][13]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the balance between supply reduction and demand increase [13][15]. - The short - fiber market is expected to oscillate, and its processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with prices following raw material trends [14][15][17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to oscillate. The market supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, with processing fees expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are expected to be weak. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand lacks support. Styrene may face inventory accumulation pressure [19][20][22]. - The propylene market is expected to be in a state of relaxation, with increasing supply and poor downstream product profits [24][25]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the medium term, facing new production capacity pressure and weak demand, but with short - term observation recommended [26][27]. - The caustic soda market is expected to improve in the medium term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [28][29]. - The plastic PP market is expected to be weak in the short term and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [30][31]. - The log market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a recommendation to observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout [32][33]. - The offset - printing paper market has a pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price [33][34]. - The pulp market has a certain degree of support below, but the high port inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space. It is recommended to try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract [34][35][37]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and consider taking profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract [37][38][39]. - The butadiene rubber market: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract [40][41][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 contract closed at $62.68, down $0.89 per barrel (-1.40%); Brent2511 contract closed at $66.68, down $0.76 per barrel (-1.13%); SC2511 contract closed at 491.2 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan, and dropped 7.6 yuan to 483.6 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3421 points (+0.00%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3372 points (-0.06%) at night [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 contract closed at 2782 (-1.28%) at night; LU11 closed at 3370 (-1.03%) at night [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6594 (-1.35%) during the day and 6600 (+0.09%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4604 (-1.33%) during the day and 4602 (-0.04%) at night [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4257 (-0.26%) during the day and 4249 (-0.19%) at night [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6284 (-0.95%) during the day and 6288 (+0.06%) at night [14]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5762 (-0.93%) during the day and 5758 (-0.07%) at night [17]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5966 (-0.55%) during the day and 5954 (-0.2%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6992 (-1.16%) during the day and 6971 (-0.3%) at night [19]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6388 (-0.56%) during the day and 6393 (+0.08%) at night [24]. - **PVC**: The domestic PVC powder market price increased slightly, with mainstream markets rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda remained stable [28]. - **Plastic PP**: The price of LLDPE in some regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the price of PP in some regions decreased or remained stable [30]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs remained stable, and the 11 - month contract oscillated downward, closing at 801.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.87% [31]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The market price of high - white offset - printing paper in Shandong remained stable, and the OP2601 contract in the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton at night [33]. - **Pulp**: The futures market declined slightly, and the prices of various types of pulp in the spot market were stable or had slight fluctuations [34][35]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The RU main 01 contract rose 10 points (+0.06%); the NR main 11 contract rose 60 points (+0.49%); the BR main 11 contract rose 50 points (+0.44%) [37][38][40]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: The central bank is expected to keep the LPR unchanged; some countries recognized the State of Palestine, causing an angry response from Israel; the number of US drilling rigs increased [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Rain in Shandong affected demand, and contracts were being executed; in the Yangtze River Delta, demand was average, and some low - price resources were released; in South China, typhoons affected demand, but some social inventories had no pressure [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: China's fuel oil imports decreased in August, and some Russian refineries were affected by attacks [6][7][8]. - **PX & PTA**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester decreased slightly, and some PX and PTA plants had maintenance plans [10][11][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China increased slightly, and some plants had restart or maintenance plans [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales of polyester yarn were average, and the operating rates of downstream industries remained stable [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The export prices of polyester bottle - chips decreased slightly, and the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased [17][18]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The operating rates of petroleum benzene and its downstream industries changed, and some pure benzene and styrene plants had maintenance or restart plans [19][20][21]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased, and some plants restarted or were under maintenance [24][25]. - **PVC**: There was new production capacity pressure, and exports were expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of a large alumina plant in Shandong decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine in some regions increased [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of major producers increased, and there was new production capacity expected [30][31]. - **Log**: China's coniferous log imports decreased in August, and the funds of construction sites changed [32]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The production of double - sided offset paper increased, and the inventory of producers increased [33][34]. - **Pulp**: A special paper production line of a company was put into operation, and a pulp mill extended its maintenance time [37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Jilin Petrochemical trial - produced a new type of rubber [39][41]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: OPEC increased production in August and September, the peak demand season in the Middle East ended, and the supply pressure increased. In the short term, oil prices are expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are falling, production is increasing, and the supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, with a relatively high valuation [4][5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries are gradually recovering, high - sulfur exports in the Middle East are increasing, and demand is weakening [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: The macro - economic situation is weak, and the supply and demand of PX and PTA have decreased. The supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [12][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has decreased and demand has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The plant operating rate has increased, downstream demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The market supply is abundant, demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak; the supply of styrene may increase, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [20][21][22]. - **Propylene**: The propane market is in the peak season, the supply of propylene is increasing, and downstream product profits are poor [24][25]. - **PVC**: There is new production capacity pressure, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market in Shandong has been released, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The demand is in the peak season, but there is new production capacity expected, and the cost support is weak [30][31]. - **Log**: The supply and demand are both weak, with supply expected to contract later [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited [33][34]. - **Pulp**: The macro - economic situation has improved, but high inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The inventory situation of different types of rubber is different, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of the BR contract has decreased, and short - positions are recommended to be held [40][41][42]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options: observe [1][4]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates weakly; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 at high prices [6][10]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [10][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [19][20][22]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate and sort out; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Unilateral trading: observe in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [28][29][30]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [30][31]. - **Log**: Unilateral trading: observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral trading: short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [33][34]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading: try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage; options: observe [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and take profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [40][41][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The postponement of the maintenance of two PX units has narrowed the de - stocking range of PX in the fourth quarter, weakening the previous de - stocking support. Coupled with more PTA maintenance plans, PX prices have fallen and PTA processing fees have widened [1] - The recent oil price has been oscillating, and the Russia - Ukraine situation should be monitored. The PX load in China has gradually recovered, and the PX balance sheet in September has changed from de - stocking to a loose balance. However, PX is still in a low - inventory state [1] - The PTA load is rising from a low level. The short - term de - stocking fundamentals are okay, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning expectations. The demand recovery is limited, and the polyester load increase is restricted [2] - The polyester start - up rate shows signs of recovery, but order connection is insufficient. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase in September [2] - The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing margin has widened. The bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly, and there is still large supply - demand pressure under the new device commissioning [3] - For the strategy, it is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices in cross - variety trading, and there is no recommendation for cross - period trading [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - The report presents PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report shows the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [27][30][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][45] Downstream Polyester Load - The report shows the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days of various filaments, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines, as well as the profits of filament FDY and POY [49][51][62] PF Detailed Data - The report presents the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, and the available inventory days in pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn factories [71][73][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report shows the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [91][93][101]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The PTA maintenance plans have increased under low processing fees, such as Hengli and Dushan Energy planning to conduct maintenance in October and November respectively. The PTA futures closed up in a volatile manner on Wednesday, the negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and individual mainstream suppliers reduced the contract supply in October, leading to a slight strengthening of the spot basis [1]. - In terms of the cost side, the oil price has been fluctuating recently, and attention should be paid to the Russia-Ukraine situation. The oil price has rebounded since last Friday. On the one hand, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations have been suspended again. On the other hand, the US military carried out a military operation in the offshore area of Venezuela, which raised concerns about Venezuela's national security. The PXN was 229 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month change of +1.63 US dollars/ton) the day before last. The negotiation on the floating price of PX was deadlocked, and the PXN weakened to 230 US dollars/ton and then fluctuated. Recently, the PX load in China has gradually recovered. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the PX balance sheet in September has changed from destocking to a loose balance, but the overall PX inventory is still at a low level. As the PTA devices resume operation, the PX will turn to destocking again. Considering the rigid demand for PX from new PTA devices, there is support below the PXN. Continued attention should be paid to window negotiations and warehouse receipt situations [2]. - In terms of TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract was -77 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 130 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -1 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's disk was 332 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +6 yuan/ton). The PTA load is increasing from a low level, and the near-term destocking fundamentals are acceptable. However, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to the expected commissioning of new devices. Recently, mainstream suppliers have been selling goods, and the market's spot supply is relatively abundant. At the same time, the recovery of the demand side is limited, and the order connection is insufficient under high inventory. The increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 91.6% (a month-on-month increase of 0.3%). The current demand shows signs of recovery, but the order connection is insufficient, mainly with local scattered orders. The high inventory of grey fabrics is being depleted slowly. The market's expectation for the subsequent demand level is neutral to pessimistic. Most terminal raw material purchases maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, digesting previous stocks while following up with rigid demand. In terms of polyester load, the inventory of filament is not high but gradually accumulating. It is expected that the load of filament and staple fiber will continue to stabilize and slightly rebound in September. The load of bottle chips is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. It is expected that the polyester load will stabilize and slightly rebound in September, with the average monthly load likely to be below 91.5% [3]. - In terms of PF, the spot production profit was 175 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -6 yuan/ton). Direct-spun polyester staple fiber fluctuated and consolidated following the raw materials, and the load continued to increase slightly. As the price difference between high and low prices in the market narrowed, factory sales improved, inventory decreased, the demand for staple fiber at a low price was acceptable, the factory inventory was low, and currently, the inventory held by traders was small. In the short term, the supply-demand situation of direct-spun polyester staple fiber was better than that of the raw material side. Due to the relatively weak performance of raw materials, the processing margin of direct-spun polyester staple fiber expanded to over 1000 [3]. - In terms of PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 454 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -11 yuan/ton). The fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. The current order receipt and shipment performance of bottle chips are average. It is reported that the industry's overall target of 20% production reduction and suspension in September remains unchanged. It is expected that the subsequent increase in bottle chip load will be limited, the overall inventory pressure of factories has decreased, and the processing fee of polyester bottle chips is expected to maintain small fluctuations. Under the pressure of the commissioning of the new Fuhai device in the future, the supply-demand pressure is still relatively large, and production reduction is needed for adjustment. It is expected that the spot processing fee of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices [4]. - Strategy: For single-sided trading, the ratings for PX/PTA/PF/PR are neutral. For PX, since August, PX devices have been restarted intensively. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, and the PXN has loosened. However, with low inventory and the restart of PTA, the PX will turn to destocking again, and there is support below the PXN. For TA, the PTA load is increasing from a low level, and the near-term destocking fundamentals are acceptable. However, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to the expected commissioning of new devices. Recently, mainstream suppliers have been selling goods, and the market's spot supply is relatively abundant. At the same time, the recovery of the demand side is limited, and the order connection is insufficient under high inventory. The increase in polyester load is limited. For PF, the demand for PF has improved slightly, the inventory has started to decrease, the demand at a low price is acceptable, and currently, the inventory held by traders is small. In the short term, the supply-demand situation of direct-spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material side, but its upward momentum is not strong. For PR, several major manufacturers have extended their maintenance plans. It is expected that the spot processing fee of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. There is no strategy for cross-period trading [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [30][33][37] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine start - up rate, and filament profit [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - Figures display the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [72][76][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip price difference, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [93][97][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to weak demand and inventory pressure, ethylene glycol is likely to continue its downward trend. The price center may further test the support level of the next range, and if port destocking continues to face obstacles and demand does not improve, the downward pressure may increase [1][2] - Supply has a slight decline, but demand remains sluggish, and inventory pressure is increasing, especially the rapid accumulation of port inventory, which may suppress prices. Although the strengthening basis shows that the spot is relatively resistant to decline, the weakness of the futures main contract and the shrinking trading volume indicate insufficient market confidence. Therefore, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side and demand recovery [22][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped slightly by 3 yuan to 4,319 yuan/ton, showing a four - day oscillating decline. The East China spot price also fell by 5 yuan to 4,435 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 3 yuan to 121 yuan/ton, indicating a premium structure of the spot relative to the futures. The far - month spread fluctuated significantly, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to - 37 yuan and the 5 - 9 spread changing from premium to discount of 12 yuan, suggesting a weak market expectation for medium - term supply and demand [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly by 77,639 lots to 106,908 lots (a decline of 42%), and the position decreased slightly by 190 lots, reflecting a decrease in market trading activity and an increase in the wait - and - see sentiment of funds [1] - **Supply Side**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate dropped slightly by 0.14 percentage points to 71.24%. Among them, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, while the coal - based and methanol - based plant operating rates remained stable. Despite the continuous loss of coal - based production at - 338 yuan/ton, the willingness to overhaul did not increase significantly, and the overall supply remained at a high level [1] - **Demand Side**: The load rate of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at a low level of 63.43% for many consecutive days. Terminal orders showed no improvement, and the rigid demand support of the polyester segment for ethylene glycol was limited [1] 2. Inventory and Related Analysis - **Inventory**: The inventory at the East China main port increased to 48.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons, reaching a recent high. Although the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, the port inventory accumulation pressure remained unresolved [2] - **Cost - Supply and Demand Relationship**: The coal - based production continued to incur losses, but the plants did not significantly reduce production. The oil - based and methanol - based operating rates remained stable, and the overall supply was loose. The rigid demand support of polyester was insufficient, the terminal weaving operating rate remained low, and the inventory climbed to a new high this year, suppressing market confidence [2] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 10, the East China US dollar market negotiation remained stable, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 520 - 523 US dollars/ton. The Shaanxi ethylene glycol market spot price remained stable, with the market average price around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was stable, and downstream players purchased as needed. The South China market spot was weakly stable, with the market negotiation atmosphere being cold, and the current price around 4,470 yuan/ton for delivery [5] - On September 10, market concerns about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East supported the rise in oil prices. However, the commissioning of new ethylene glycol plants has been further implemented, and the spot basis in the market has narrowly shrunk. The current negotiation reference price in East China is around 4,437 yuan/ton [5] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of September 11th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal, industrial silicon, and red dates rose over 2%, while polysilicon, coke, pulp, apples, lithium carbonate, and soda ash rose over 1%. The container shipping index (European line) dropped over 5%, and 20 - rubber and iron ore fell nearly 1% [6]. - Stock index futures generally rose, with the CSI 300 futures (IF) up 2.64%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) up 1.56%, the CSI 500 futures (IC) up 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) up 2.94%. Treasury bond futures also had mixed results, with the 2 - year (TS) up 0.06%, the 5 - year (TF) up 0.14%, the 10 - year (T) up 0.07%, and the 30 - year (TL) down 0.11% [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:30 on September 11th, the CSI 300 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital inflows of 1.584 billion, 1.533 billion, and 0.68 billion respectively. Meanwhile, the Shanghai gold 2510, CSI 1000 2509, and Shanghai silver 2510 had outflows of 1.252 billion, 0.605 billion, and 0.376 billion respectively [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - The US August PPI was lower than expected. China's copper ore imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year in August. Refining fees are falling, and 5 smelters plan to have maintenance in September, which may lead to a decline in domestic electrolytic copper production. Imported copper will affect the domestic market. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9]. Crude Oil - The seasonal travel peak is over, and US oil inventories are increasing. OPEC + will adjust production in October, which may increase pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut prices. The market should watch the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and India's oil purchases. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - to - long - term and close short positions in the short - term [10][11]. Asphalt - Supply is decreasing, and demand is also weak due to factors like weather and capital. OPEC +'s planned production increase will weaken cost support. It is recommended to close short positions and expect a sideways movement [12][13]. PP - Downstream开工率 is rising, and new capacity has been put into operation. With the improvement of the weather, the downstream is entering the peak season. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [14]. Plastic - The开工率 is stable, and downstream demand, especially in the agricultural film sector, is increasing. New capacity has been added. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [15][16]. PVC - Supply is increasing, and downstream demand is still weak. Exports are expected to decline. Inventory is high, and the real estate market is still adjusting. The market is expected to decline with volatility [17]. Urea - The market is weak with high inventory and low demand. However, the price is at a low level, and there may be a technical rebound [18][19].

化工日报 | 2025-09-04 下游恢复不及预期，PTA基差偏弱 市场分析 成本端，俄乌问题的进展陷入了停滞甚至倒退，近期地缘局势继续升温，胡赛武装袭击了以色列敌军占领的雅法 地区，对多个目标进行打击，继续推动油价上行。同时印度无视美国关税制裁，继续购买俄罗斯原油也在需求端 利好油价涨幅扩大。不过宏观层面金融市场巨震，也引发了油价宽幅波动。另外，石脑油近期表现偏强，一方面 乌克兰再度袭击俄罗斯主要石脑油出口港乌斯季卢港，使得石脑油供应预期进一步收窄。另一方面，需求端，东 北亚市场近端买气尚可，且部分裂解装置也将在检修结束后重启，需求预期支撑石脑油经济性继续修复。下游烯 烃临近旺季，效益底部同样具备保障。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN246美元/吨(环比变动-6.25美元/吨）。9月初出光检修装置重启以及后市福海创重启后， 预计国内外PX负荷还将继续上行。近期中国PX负荷陆续恢复，同时PTA检修增加下PX平衡表由去库转为松平衡， 基本面环比转弱,近月PX浮动价有所松动转弱，但PX整体仍处于低库存状态，考虑到新PTA装置对PX的刚需采购， PXN下方有支撑，继续关注窗口商谈和仓单情况。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/03 | POY 1 | 石脑油 | PX CFR | PTA内盘现 | 石脑油裂 | PTA加 | PTA平衡 | PTA负 | 仓单+有 | 日期 | 原油 | 50D/4 | PX加工差 | 聚酯毛利 | TA基差 产销 | 日本 | 台湾 | 货 | 解价差 | 工差 | 负荷 | 荷 | 效预报 | 8F | 2025/0 | 68.1 | 590 | 854 | 4835 | 6885 | 91.57 | 264.0 | 189 | 76 | 79.3 | 70.4 | 30940 | -15 | 0.30 | 8/27 | 2025/0 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...