Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The domestic ethylene glycol industry has entered a deep adjustment phase of supply - demand re - balancing. Since September, the ethylene glycol futures 2601 contract has been on a unilateral downward trend, and it is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the future [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Supply Side - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is continuously released, and supply pressure is accumulating. As of the week of November 13, the domestic ethylene glycol enterprise capacity utilization rate was 66.00%, with a slight increase of 0.12 percentage points. The total output was 41.37 tons, a slight increase of 0.08 tons. The capacity utilization rate is at a relatively high level this year [3]. - In 2025, the total domestic ethylene glycol production capacity exceeded 29.8 million tons. The trial - run of Shandong Yulong's 900,000 - ton device strengthened the expectation of increased supply. Although some devices are planned for maintenance, new production capacity far exceeds the short - term reduction caused by maintenance, resulting in a continuously loose supply - demand pattern [3]. - Overseas supply has decreased due to some US device shutdowns and low - load operation of Saudi devices, and imports are at a relatively low level. However, the significant increase in domestic self - sufficiency has weakened the marginal impact of imports [3]. Demand Side - Downstream demand is weak, and its support for prices is extremely limited. About 95% of ethylene glycol consumption is concentrated in the polyester industry. After the "Double Eleven" orders in the textile market were delivered, subsequent orders were scarce, and the market was cautious about the future [4]. - As of the week of November 13, domestic ethylene glycol demand was 552,200 tons, a 0.31% decrease from the previous week [4]. Inventory - Port inventory has been continuously accumulating. As of the week of November 13, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port reached 618,000 tons, a slight increase of 13,000 tons. The inventory accumulation is due to increased domestic production, concentrated arrivals of goods, and insufficient downstream receiving capacity [5]. - With the stable output of new devices and more arrival plans, the inventory accumulation trend is difficult to reverse, and high inventory will suppress prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [2] - L: Bearish consolidation [2] - PP: Bearish consolidation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish but with weakening expectations [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously chase up but beware of downside risks [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current core driver of the oil market is the supply surplus in the off - season. Although short - term factors such as strong refined oil profits and the Russia - Ukraine conflict may cause oil prices to strengthen, the overall downward pressure on oil prices is large. Other energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and seasonal characteristics, showing different trends [2][9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: Overnight international oil prices strengthened short - term, with WTI rising 1.43%, Brent rising 1.72%, and SC falling 0.17% [7][8]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season. OPEC+ plans to expand production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause expansion in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Arabia has significantly reduced the official selling price for Asian buyers in December. Demand from Russia to India has decreased, and US inventories have changed [9][10]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions. SC focuses on the range of [460 - 475] [11]. LPG - **Market review**: On November 11, the PG main contract closed at 4,332 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [12][13]. - **Basic logic**: It is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Although oil prices have rebounded, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has shown some resilience, and inventories at ports and factories have declined [14]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. PG focuses on the range of [4300 - 4400] [15]. L - **Market review**: The L01 closing price (main contract) was 6,760 yuan/ton, down 0.6% [17]. - **Basic logic**: Spot price decline has slowed, and the market has shifted to a contango structure. Supply is loose, demand for replenishment is insufficient, and cost support is weak [19]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Reduce short positions at the short - term stop - falling level. Be bearish on the medium - to - long - term rebound. L focuses on the range of [6700 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market review**: The PP01 closing price (main contract) was 6,429 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - **Basic logic**: The fundamentals are weak following the decline in coking coal prices. Inventory pressure is high, and oil prices still face a downward risk in the medium term [23]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Reduce short positions at the short - term stop - falling level. Be bearish on the medium - to - long - term rebound. PP focuses on the range of [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market review**: The V01 closing price (main contract) was 4,572 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [25]. - **Basic logic**: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. Although inventories are high, low valuations limit further downside. The market is in a high - premium state [27]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. V focuses on the range of [4500 - 4650] [27]. PX - **Basic logic**: Supply from domestic and overseas plants has increased. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern remains loose [28]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up on a single - side basis. For arbitrage, focus on expanding downstream processing margins (i.e., long PTA, short PX). PX focuses on the range of [6700 - 6810] [29]. PTA - **Market review**: TA05 was 4,728 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; TA11 was 4,616 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; TA01 was 4,664 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [30]. - **Basic logic**: Processing margins are low. Later, the intensity of plant maintenance is expected to increase, and supply pressure is expected to ease. Downstream demand has improved slightly, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November. Oil prices are under pressure [31]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on a single - side basis at low prices. For arbitrage, focus on expanding TA processing margins (i.e., long PTA, short PX). TA focuses on the range of [4620 - 4685] [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: EG05 was 3,942 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; EG11 was 3,848 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; EG01 was 4,019 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [33]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic plant maintenance has increased, and new plant commissioning and the resumption of maintenance plants will increase supply pressure. Downstream demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November, and it lacks upward drivers [34]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is in a low - level oscillation. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. EG focuses on the range of [3855 - 3920] [35]. Methanol - **Basic logic**: High inventories suppress price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, demand is average, and cost support is weak. The fundamentals remain weak [38]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is in a weak oscillation. Hold short positions cautiously. For arbitrage, focus on the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [4]. Urea - **Market review**: UR05 was 1,734 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; UR09 was 1,753 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; UR01 was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [41]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand has improved slightly, inventories are at a high level, and exports have maintained a high growth rate. The market has a ceiling and a floor [42]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Be wary of the risk of the market falling after rising. UR focuses on the range of [1628 - 1658] [43]. Natural Gas - **Market review**: On November 11, the NG main contract closed at $4.764 per million British thermal units, up 4.96% [45][46]. - **Basic logic**: As the temperature drops, the demand for combustion and heating increases, providing support for gas prices. Supply is sufficient, and inventories in the US have increased [47]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Although the demand season provides support, supply is sufficient, and upward pressure increases. NG focuses on the range of [4.415 - 4.581] [48]. Asphalt - **Basic logic**: The cost of crude oil has decreased with the release of geopolitical risks. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the demand season is coming to an end. Valuations are high [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions [6]. Glass - **Basic logic**: The fundamentals are weak. Supply is unlikely to decline further, inventories are high, and domestic demand is weak [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short - term, cold - repair provides support. In the medium - to - long - term, be bearish on rebounds [6]. Soda Ash - **Basic logic**: The increase in photovoltaic melting volume and plant maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. Inventories are still high, and the supply will remain loose in the long - term [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should conduct sell - hedging at high prices. Be bearish on medium - to - long - term rebounds [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,875 yuan/ton (down 78 yuan/ton or 1.97% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,979 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan/ton or 0.72%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). With the restart of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and the decline in coal prices, EG showed a weak downward trend [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$57/ton (down $2/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -911 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons (up 9.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons (up 6.5 tons). With more arrival plans this week, inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level, and overseas device changes are limited. Arrival plans around mid - November are still moderately high, and port inventory is expected to gradually increase. On the demand side, polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. An inverse spread strategy is recommended for EG2601 - EG2605, and no cross - variety strategy is provided [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,875 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,979 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$57/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -911 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level [2]. International Price Difference No specific data or analysis on international price differences is provided in the text, only a figure (Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) is mentioned [19]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons, and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons. Arrival plans this week are more, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - Around mid - November, arrival plans are still moderately high, and port inventory is expected to gradually increase [2].

Core Points - The green foreign debt pilot policy was officially implemented in Jiangsu province on November 1, allowing eligible non-financial enterprises to borrow foreign and domestic currency for green low-carbon transformation projects [1][2] - The pilot policy aims to support green low-carbon development, serve the real economy, and expand financing channels for enterprises [1] - The policy allows such projects to occupy less of the enterprise's overall cross-border financing risk-weighted balance, thereby increasing the upper limit of cross-border financing [1] Summary by Sections Implementation and Initial Success - On the same day the policy was implemented, Industrial Bank's Nanjing branch successfully executed Jiangsu's first green foreign debt pilot business through its Taizhou branch [1][2] - The bank formed a cross-functional team to identify eligible enterprises, focusing on key indicators such as foreign debt limits, compliance of use, and exchange rate risks [2] Targeted Enterprises - The team identified RT Company, a private enterprise established in July 2015, which specializes in chemical products and has been certified as a high-tech and "little giant" enterprise in Jiangsu [2] - RT Company's borrowing project met the requirements for green low-carbon transformation, leading to expedited support from the bank [2] Future Plans - Industrial Bank's Nanjing branch plans to continue promoting the green foreign debt pilot and enhance foreign exchange management services to support the real economy's green transformation and high-quality development [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the price differentials of key refining projects in both domestic and international markets, indicating a slight increase in domestic price differentials and a more significant increase in international price differentials [1][2] - Brent crude oil's average weekly price shows a slight decline, reflecting market volatility influenced by geopolitical factors and economic data [2] Refining Sector - As of November 7, 2025, the domestic key refining project price differential is 2327.79 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 18.00 CNY/ton (+0.78%); the international key refining project price differential is 1361.85 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 56.54 CNY/ton (+4.33%) [1][2] - Brent crude oil's average weekly price is 64.23 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of -1.45% [1][2] - The refining sector is experiencing mixed signals due to U.S.-China trade negotiations and OPEC+ production decisions, leading to fluctuations in international oil prices [2] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector shows overall weak supply and demand, with cost declines not resulting in significant price differential improvements [3] - Polyolefin prices are fluctuating, while pure benzene and styrene prices are slightly declining, leading to narrowed price differentials [3] - Polyester filament yarn market shows slight upward movement due to stable supply, but overall purchasing willingness remains low due to weak downstream demand [3] Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of November 7, 2025, stock price changes for six major private refining companies include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+5.99%), Hengli Petrochemical (+8.02%), Dongfang Shenghong (+2.71%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-0.73%), Tongkun Co. (+6.82%), and Xin Fengming (+6.17%) [4] - Over the past month, stock price changes include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+11.92%), Hengli Petrochemical (+13.13%), Dongfang Shenghong (-0.53%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+3.20%), Tongkun Co. (+1.20%), and Xin Fengming (+3.88%) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The remaining period of this year for crude oil is under pressure, and it should be treated with a weakening trend [1]. - Gold may experience high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and the downward space is limited in the short - term [1]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are strengthening, and it is expected to have a short - term strong and volatile trend [3]. - Steel prices may have a narrow - range fluctuation after a partial rebound in the short - term [3]. - Coking coal futures are running near the upper edge of the oscillation range, and the actual impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on supply should be focused on [4]. - There is a local rebound expectation for hog prices, but there is still downward pressure in the short - term [4]. - Soybean No. 1 will have a high - level oscillation in the short - term, and Soybean No. 2 will have a strengthening and oscillating trend [5]. - Palm oil will have a bottom adjustment in the short - term [6]. - Rubber should be treated with a weakening and oscillating trend [6]. - PTA should be traded in the short - term as its fundamentals lack significant driving forces [6]. - Treasury bond futures have increasing positive factors and a medium - term oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. - Silver will have a short - term oscillation and a long - term strengthening trend [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weakening and oscillating trend [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to have a short - term oscillating trend [9]. - PVC is expected to have a short - term oscillating trend [10]. Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price for Asia in December. The export volume of some crude oils in November is expected to be slightly lower than that in October. The market is worried about oversupply, and European and American futures prices have fallen [1]. Gold - There are large differences within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates in December. The decline of US stocks and the risk - aversion sentiment are positive for precious metals [1]. Lithium Carbonate - The market supply and demand are booming. The total market inventory has decreased, and the sentiment in the mid - stream has improved. The latest quotation of Australian mines has strengthened again [3]. Rebar - This week, the supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, and the inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. Most steel mills are in losses and are expected to increase maintenance and production reduction [3]. Coking Coal - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal has no obvious change recently. The upward driving force comes from anti - involution and the improvement of Sino - US trade relations. The multi - empty game in the market has intensified [4]. Hog - Hog prices are stable and strong in the north and weakly stable in the south. There is a local rebound expectation under the supply - demand game [4]. Soybean - Brazil's soybean exports in October increased significantly year - on - year. The purchase price of domestic new - season soybeans has increased, but the downstream demand suppresses the price to some extent [5]. Palm Oil - The production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 5 increased compared with the same period last month. There is an expectation of production reduction in November, and the domestic demand has been significantly boosted recently [6]. Rubber - The inventory has increased this week, and the overall raw material inventory is at a low level. The demand side lacks substantial positive factors, especially the decline of synthetic rubber prices [6]. PTA - The polyester start - up rate is stable. The domestic supply has increased, and the demand side is stable. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory accumulation [6]. Short - term Treasury Bond - The money market interest rates have mostly declined, and the central bank's open - market operations and short - term liquidity injection are positive for the bond market [7]. Silver - The US federal government shutdown has led to the suspension of official inflation data release, causing concerns among some Fed officials about the future monetary policy [7]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly [8]. Soda Ash - The production of soda ash has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up of float glass is relatively stable, and the inventory has decreased [9]. PVC - The start - up of domestic PVC production enterprises has increased, and the production is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory has increased [10].

Core Insights - Jinfa Technology has recently established collaborations with major industry players, including Sinopec and Geely Automobile, to enhance talent development and sustainable materials research in the automotive sector [2][3]. Group 1: Collaboration with Sinopec - Jinfa Technology signed a talent training cooperation agreement with Sinopec Chemical Sales Co., Ltd. in Guangzhou, establishing a chemical product processing technology practice base [2]. - This base aims to provide practical training for employees, allowing them to gain insights into customer needs and industry trends, thereby strengthening the expert marketing team to support high-quality development [2]. - The partnership focuses on optimizing the "theory + practice" talent training model, creating a comprehensive talent development system covering production practice, marketing theory, end-product application, and market research [2]. Group 2: Joint Research Laboratory with Geely - Jinfa Technology, Geely Automobile, and China Automotive Data Co., Ltd. have launched the "Automotive Sustainable Materials Joint Research Laboratory" [3]. - The laboratory aims to integrate resources from automotive data services, vehicle R&D, and polymer material innovation, focusing on breakthroughs in sustainable materials technology and establishing a management system [3]. - Key areas of focus include: - Tackling core technologies for sustainable automotive materials, such as recycled materials, lightweight materials, and low-carbon applications [3]. - Building a closed-loop ecosystem for automotive materials, enhancing resource recycling efficiency through a comprehensive design and recycling system [3]. - Establishing a traceability and management system for sustainable materials, creating a quality traceability platform and shared database to support data-driven decision-making for automotive companies [3]. Group 3: Future Directions - The joint research laboratory will continue to promote the transformation and industrialization of sustainable materials technology, strengthen collaborative mechanisms, and enhance domestic and international exchanges in the automotive industry [3]. - The initiative aims to elevate the application level of sustainable materials in China's automotive industry and contribute to the global green and low-carbon development of the automotive sector [3].

Summary of the Conference Call for Rongsheng Petrochemical Company Overview - **Company**: Rongsheng Petrochemical - **Industry**: Petrochemical Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Rongsheng Petrochemical achieved a revenue of **792 billion CNY** and a net profit attributable to shareholders of **2.86 billion CNY**, showing improvements both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3][6][5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached **227.8 billion CNY** with a net profit of **8.88 billion CNY** [6][5] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities increased by **20%** year-on-year, amounting to **236 billion CNY** [6][5] Shareholder Returns - The company completed a share repurchase of **1.998 billion CNY** in July 2025 and the controlling shareholder initiated a buyback plan totaling nearly **3 billion CNY** [3][4] - These actions reflect the management's confidence in the company's long-term value [3][4] Industry Dynamics - The petrochemical industry is currently in a cyclical downturn, but there are signs of recovery due to policy support and market adjustments [3][4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan in September to stabilize growth in the petrochemical sector, focusing on technological innovation and investment optimization [4][3] Operational Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end materials and international cooperation to enhance global competitiveness [4][3] - Plans to optimize capital expenditure by concentrating on differentiated and high-return new materials [4][3] Market Conditions - International oil prices fluctuated between **65-70 USD** per barrel in Q3, with OPEC+ canceling voluntary production cuts [7][6] - The company exported **235,000 tons** of refined oil, with a total refined oil production of **12 million tons** in the first three quarters [10][7] PTA and Polyester Segment - PTA processing fees are at historical lows, averaging less than **200 CNY** per ton in Q3, down from **300 CNY** in Q2 [18][19] - The company has reduced PTA production loads in response to market conditions, collaborating with other leading firms to stabilize the market [21][22] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in the petrochemical sector, with potential improvements in profitability as the industry adjusts to reduced capacity and market demands [42][43] - Upcoming projects include high-performance materials and new energy materials, with expected production starting in **2026** [49][50] Risk Management - The company has a diversified and compliant global procurement strategy, focusing on stable sources like Saudi Arabia to mitigate geopolitical risks [14][15] - The impact of international sanctions on the industry is acknowledged, but the company maintains a strong position due to its resource integration capabilities [16][14] Conclusion - Rongsheng Petrochemical is navigating a challenging market environment with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and shareholder value. The focus on high-end materials and international collaboration positions the company well for future growth as the industry recovers from cyclical lows [3][4][42][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, influenced by the industry symposium, the futures market was significantly boosted, but the spot basis changed little. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate strongly, and the spot basis will have limited improvement [5]. - For MEG, with the concentrated arrival of foreign ships this week, port inventories are expected to increase significantly. The overall inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is about 400,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term price will be adjusted within a range, with continuous upward pressure [6]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level after the market rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the industry symposium, the PTA futures rose sharply after the afternoon opening. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis stabilized. The trading price range was around 4,440 - 4,565, and the mainstream spot basis was at 01 - 81 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4,490, and the 01 - contract basis was - 126, with the futures at a discount, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 4.07 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Main positions**: The net short position decreased, which is a bearish factor [5]. - **Expectation**: The PTA futures were boosted by the symposium, but the spot basis changed little. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate strongly, and the spot basis will have limited improvement [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the market negotiation was fair. The basis of spot goods was high, and some traders participated in replenishment. In the afternoon, the market rose strongly, and the high - level spot transaction reached over 4,225 yuan/ton [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4,183, and the 01 - contract basis was 74, with the futures at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 481,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish factor [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short position decreased, which is a bearish factor [6]. - **Expectation**: With the concentrated arrival of foreign ships this week, port inventories are expected to increase significantly. The overall inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is about 400,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term price will be adjusted within a range, with continuous upward pressure [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Positive factors**: The oil price rebounded by more than 7% last week, the largest single - week increase in the second half of the year. Sanctions against Russia were the main driver, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations also improved market expectations [8]. - **Negative factors**: A new 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started production last weekend and has now produced products [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply, demand, inventory, and other data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply, demand, inventory, and other data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, production, imports, consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as the basis and profit data of futures contracts [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish in the short - term, long - term bullish potential [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [5] Core Views - The core driver of the energy and chemical market is supply - demand imbalance, with supply generally exceeding demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. However, factors such as cost support, seasonal demand, and macro - policies also affect price trends [2][3][5] - In the short term, most products are expected to continue their weak trends, but some products with low valuations have limited downward space [2][3][5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices showed a mixed trend, with WTI up 0.29%, Brent up 0.94%, and SC down 2.68% [6] - **Basic Logic**: Trump's actions released macro - risks, but the core driver is supply surplus in the off - season, and oil prices are likely to be suppressed below $60 [7] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November; US oil rig count decreased; Russian exports are stable. Demand is expected to grow moderately in the future, and US commercial crude inventories increased [8] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the $60 shale oil break - even point [9] LPG - **Market Performance**: The PG main contract closed at 4063 yuan/ton on October 10, with a 0.37% decline [12] - **Basic Logic**: The decline in oil prices and Saudi's CP price cut put pressure on LPG. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has a slight recovery [13] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions as the trend follows oil prices [14] L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6983 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan [18] - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory increased, and it will follow cost fluctuations. Supply is in a loose pattern, but low valuations and seasonal demand limit the downward space [19] - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge at high prices due to the contango structure [19] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [23] - **Basic Logic**: After - holiday inventory accumulation exceeds the seasonal norm, and supply - demand remains loose. It will follow cost fluctuations and face de - stocking pressure [24] - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge at high prices due to the contango structure [24] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4721 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the chemical sector declines together. Inventory accumulates, but low valuations limit further price drops [28] - **Strategy**: The market will continue to explore the bottom, but be cautious about short - selling [28] PX - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the PX spot price was 6618 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight - balance but expected to be loose. PXN and PX - MX are relatively high. Macro factors put pressure on prices [32] - **Strategy**: Close short positions at low valuations, sell call options, and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [33] PTA - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the PTA spot price in East China was 4485 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply load increases, demand has a "Silver October" expectation, but cost support weakens. Supply - demand is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [36] - **Strategy**: Close short positions at low valuations and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [37] MEG - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the East China MEG spot price was 4190 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device load increases, overseas devices change little. Demand improves slightly, but inventory accumulates. Cost support weakens [40] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [41] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the East China methanol spot price was 2245 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Sino - US trade frictions and tariff policies are short - term negatives. Supply pressure is large, but demand improves slightly. Cost support stabilizes [45] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [47] Urea - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. Inventory accumulates, but cost support exists [50] - **Strategy**: The recent Indian tender has limited positive effects. Look for long - term light - position long - entry opportunities at low prices [52] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: Supply is sufficient, and gas prices decline. Although the increase in drilling rigs and seasonal demand support prices, macro - risks put pressure on them [5] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakens, supply - demand is loose, and valuations are high. It is recommended to hold short positions [5] Glass - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices decline, inventory increases, and demand is weak. Supply is under pressure. Short - sell based on the 5 - day moving average [5] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices decline slightly, inventory increases, and demand improves slightly. Supply may decrease slightly. Hedge at high prices and look for long - short spread opportunities [5]