研究早观点 2026 年 1 月 8 日 星期四 市场走势 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20251229-20260104）-2025 回顾和展望， 2026 关注海外光通信、国产算力、商业航天高低切行情 【行业评论】煤炭：煤炭行业 2026 年策略报告：将反内卷进行到底 【行业评论】【山证电新】20260107 光伏产业链价格跟踪-中游价格上 行 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 研究早观点 | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,085.77 | 0.05 | | 深证成指 | 14,030.56 | 0.06 | | 沪深 300 | 4,776.67 | -0.29 | | 中小板指 | 8,611.80 | 0.21 | | 创业板指 | 3,329.69 | 0.31 | | 科创 50 | 1,443.39 | 0.99 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | ...

通信 周跟踪（20251229-20260104） 领先大市-A(维持) ——2025 回顾和展望，2026 关注海外光通信、国产算力、商业航天高低切行情 通信行业近一年市场表现 相关报告： 【山证通信】英伟达投资 Groq 重点 布局推理 ASIC，科创板促进商业航天加 速发展-周跟踪（20251222-20251228） 2025.12.31 齐聚资本市场，光纤光缆边际向好-周跟 踪（20251215-20251221） 2025.12.23 2026 年 1 月 7 日 行业研究/行业周报 张天 执业登记编码：S0760523120001 邮箱：zhangtian@sxzq.com 赵天宇 执业登记编码：S0760524060001 邮箱：zhaotianyu@sxzq.com 投资要点 行业动向： 资料来源：常闻 1）通信行业 2025 市场表现领先，光模块、液冷、光纤、卫星等板块位于前 列。根据 wind 申万一级行业指数统计，2025 年通信行业累计涨幅 84.8%，在申 万一级行业中位列第二。分板块来看，根据我们的统计，光模块、光缆海缆、液 冷、卫星通信、设备商为表现最好的前五大赛道，2025 ...

【导读】沪指12连阳创出33年纪录，机构解读：A股春季行情或仍有上行空间 中国基金报记者 方丽 曹雯璟 同时，今日市场成交额大幅放量5000亿元至2.57万亿元，创下近两月新高。行业层面，仅有 石油石化、银行、交通运输和商贸零售微跌，传媒、医药生物、电子领涨市场。 春季行情是否开启？后市将如何演绎？中国基金报记者第一时间采访了博时、招商、广发、 景顺长城、长城、泉果、恒生前海等基金公司。他们认为，由于假期外围市场上涨以及春季 行情预期共同驱动了"开门红"，A股春季行情或仍有上行空间，看好消费电子、顺周期、AI等 领域。 多因素引发"开门红" 元旦假期港股市场大涨。2025年12月中国制造业PMI超预期回升至扩张区间，人民币汇率走 强助推外资回流等因素，共同推动2026年A股市场"开门红"。 招商基金表示，今日A股市场上涨是多重因素共振的结果：第一，受元旦假期港股市场大涨提 振，恒生科技指数1月2日上涨4%。AI应用加速落地事件催化频繁与AI产业催化不断，AI科技 周期向上背景下港股科技、半导体板块领涨。 2026年首个交易日，A股喜迎"开门红"！ 数据显示，今日A股指数放量大涨，沪指不仅重新站上4000点关口 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong recovery trend since mid-December, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording 11 consecutive gains before the New Year, indicating a certain trend of recovery [1][5][28] - The "spring market rush" suggests that the starting point of the market has been advanced to November or December of the previous year, driven by optimistic policy expectations and clear economic trends [1][36][51] - The market is currently experiencing a structural rally, with significant participation from institutional and leveraged funds, and the inflow of incremental capital is evident [1][11][40] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that since 2011, there have been 9 instances of spring market rallies starting in Q1, with 4 instances starting early in November or December, primarily driven by policy expectations and liquidity easing [2][29][42] - The core sectors benefiting from the current spring market include technology growth, with a notable absence of financial sector leadership, which has historically been significant in previous rallies [3][30][53] - The market structure is expected to evolve with a focus on technology growth, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors, while resource price increases and external demand may also play important roles [4][24][51] Group 3 - The current market sentiment remains strong, with trading volumes stabilizing above 2 trillion yuan in recent days, reflecting a preference for high-elasticity stocks [10][34][40] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide clear policy guidance, which is crucial for sustaining the current market momentum [7][36][45] - The market is likely to continue a slow bull trend, with potential adjustments depending on the inflow of incremental funds, suggesting a need for attention to low-position themes and sectors [3][30][51]

- The report introduces a timing system that uses the distance between the 120-day long-term moving average and the 20-day short-term moving average of the WIND All A Index to determine market trends. The short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, with a distance of 3.38%, which is significantly greater than 3%, indicating the market has returned to an upward trend[2][6][11] - The "profitability effect" is used as a core indicator to assess market conditions. The current market trend line is at 6237 points, and the profitability effect is 3.12%, which is significantly positive, suggesting the upward trend is likely to continue[5][7][11] - The "Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model" signals a focus on retail, tourism, and other service-oriented consumption sectors[5][7][11] - The "TWO BETA Model" continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on domestic computing power and commercial aerospace[5][7][11] - The "Industry Trend Model" indicates that sectors such as communication, industrial metals, and energy storage are maintaining an upward trend[5][7][11] - The valuation metrics for the WIND All A Index show that the PE ratio is at the 85th percentile, indicating a relatively high level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[5][7][11] - Based on the "Position Management Model," the report suggests an 80% equity allocation for absolute return products using the WIND All A Index as the primary stock allocation benchmark[5][7][11]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.26% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.01%. Key sectors showing gains include commercial aerospace, optical modules, and Hainan free trade, while new retail, liquor, and weight loss drug sectors experienced declines [1] - Citic Securities highlights increasing factors for RMB appreciation, suggesting investors adapt asset allocation in a strengthening RMB environment. Key focus areas include sectors benefiting from short-term memory effects, profit margin changes, and policy shifts, such as aviation, gas, and paper industries [1] - Citic Securities identifies three lines of focus for investment: short-term memory-driven sectors, industries with high import dependency on raw materials and low export dependency, and sectors benefiting from potential monetary policy easing or relaxed foreign investment restrictions [1] Group 2 - Citic Jiantou reports that the A-share market is expected to resonate upward with global markets, influenced by external factors like US AI bubble concerns and Japan's interest rate hikes. Key investment themes include dividend value, cyclical layouts, and thematic hotspots [2] - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals (silver, copper, tin, tungsten), high-dividend Hong Kong stocks, non-bank financials, AI (liquid cooling, optical communication), new energy (energy storage, solid-state batteries), innovative pharmaceuticals, and banks [2] - Thematic hotspots include Hainan (duty-free), nuclear power, and winter tourism [2] Group 3 -招商证券 anticipates the onset of a cross-year market trend leading into spring, with signals indicating a classic "cross-year-spring" market is developing. Increased central budget investments are expected to accelerate, providing stable incremental capital to the market [3] - The focus is on cyclical sectors, particularly industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation. Key areas of interest include domestic computing power, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion [3]

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with expectations for A-shares to resonate upward with global markets by 2026, focusing on "technology + overseas expansion" as a continuing theme [1][2] - Current market conditions are characterized by narrow fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3] - Investor sentiment has recently dropped below 70, indicating a pessimistic outlook that may lead to a slight recovery in sentiment and upward market fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Industry allocation strategies include focusing on high dividend stocks, cyclical sectors, and thematic hotspots such as Hainan's duty-free shopping and nuclear power [2][4] - The anticipated "cross-year-spring" market rally is supported by early policy implementation and increased institutional investment in broad-based ETFs [4][5] - The potential for a structural outperformance in sectors like brokerage and technology is expected, driven by upcoming monetary policy changes and market liquidity improvements [7][8] Group 3 - The ongoing appreciation of the RMB is expected to influence asset allocation, with approximately 19% of industries likely to see profit margin improvements due to currency appreciation [3] - Key sectors benefiting from policy support include AI, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals may also see positive impacts [6][9] - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" driven by favorable valuation levels, liquidity conditions, and catalysts that enhance risk appetite [6][12] Group 4 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from a single narrative to a broader focus on physical demand and domestic policy benefits, with sectors like AI and consumer services poised for recovery [10][13] - Non-bank financials are highlighted as having significant earnings elasticity, while sectors like electric equipment and machinery are expected to benefit from AI investments and export demand [13][14] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment before the anticipated cross-year rally, with a focus on structural opportunities aligned with policy directions and industry trends [11][14]

300增强ETF（561300）不仅紧跟沪深300指数，还叠加了量化策略，试图在优质beta的基础上追求超额 收益。截至2025年三季度末，300增强ETF过去三年相对沪深300超额达10.92%。 招商证券指出，2026年作为中国"十五五"规划开局之年，政策定调积极，预计财政支出将保持扩张，基 建与重大项目集中落地有望带动投资（特别是基建）增速回升，与潜在的房地产企稳政策形成合力，共 同推动内需回暖。行业层面，关注顺周期与产能出清、科技创新与优势制造、扩内需三条线索，重点关 注有色金属、基础化工、食品饮料、电力设备等行业。顺周期板块收入和净利润增速触底回升，利润率 底部修复，资本开支增速处于拐点附近，在建工程持续下滑至历史低位，与历史上几轮顺周期行情高度 契合。科技创新领域，国产算力行业在外部封锁与内需爆发双引擎驱动下处于历史性机遇期，AI、服 务器、数据中心等环节加速迭代。消费服务行业有望在政策支持、经济复苏与结构转型共同作用下迎来 量价齐升的复苏周期，重点关注医疗护理、养老托育、文化旅游等服务消费领域。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

盘前要闻 1、习近平：尽快形成完整内需体系，要建立和完善扩大居民消费的长效机制 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 12月16日出版的《求是》杂志将发表国家主席习近平的重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。文章指出， 实施扩大内需战略，是保持我国经济长期持续健康发展的需要，也是满足人民日益增长的美好生活的需 要。要建立和完善扩大居民消费的长效机制，使居民有稳定收入能消费、没有后顾之忧敢消费、消费环 境优获得感强愿消费。 2、无人驾驶迎密集利好！L3级自动驾驶上路测试，特斯拉启动无安全员Robotaxi路测 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 近期，无人驾驶国内外密集利好来袭，12月15日，工信部公布首批L3级自动驾驶车型准入许可，公布 的两款车型分别属于重庆长安汽车和北汽蓝谷麦格纳两家公司。海外方面，马斯克上周透露，特斯拉 Robotaxi将在三周内取消安全员。机构称，产业链核心逻辑由"电动化"向"智能化+具身化"拓展。 3、中央经济工作会议后 证监会首场会议点明重点改革方向 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 证监会主席吴清近日主持召开会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神。会议强调，持续深化资本市场投 融资综合改革，更好助力稳就业、稳企业 ...

- The report indicates that the market is on the edge of an upward trend signal, with the core observation indicator being whether the profitability effect is positive. The current trend line of the WIND All A Index is around 6262 points, and the closing price is at 6264 points, just on the verge of turning positive[2][5][7] - The timing system signal shows that the distance between the moving averages is 4.03%, significantly greater than the absolute value of 3%, indicating that the market has returned to an upward trend pattern[2][5][6] - The industry trend allocation model shows that the mid-term distress reversal expectation model signals attention to liquor and real estate; the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on consumer electronics and domestic computing power. The industry trend model shows that the engineering machinery/industrial metals/energy storage sectors continue their upward trend[2][5][7] - From the valuation indicators, the PE of the WIND All A Index is around the 80th percentile, which is a medium level, and the PB is around the 50th percentile, which is a relatively low level. Based on the short-term trend judgment and the position management model, it is recommended that absolute return products with the WIND All A as the main stock allocation should have a position of 60%[5][7][12]