策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 策略周报 聚焦科技核心资产 成长龙头崛起，中周期主线加速验证。 相关研究报告 《策略点评报告》20250822 《7 月外汇市场分析报告》20250822 《2025 年二季度货币政策执行报告点评》 20250819 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina. ...

在市场震荡上涨的过程中，百亿级私募积极谋攻。私募排排网数据显示，截至8月15日，股票私募仓位 指数连续两周上涨。其中，百亿级私募攻势明显，仓位指数超过82%，较8月8日涨超8个百分点，创下 年内单周最大加仓幅度。从加仓方向来看，科技、创新药、新消费等板块仍是布局重点，同时受益 于"反内卷"政策的化工、保险等行业获不少私募加码。在业内人士看来，市场正处于趋势性上行的上半 场，未来或将由流动性、基本面双重驱动，基本面向好且代表经济转型方向的企业值得关注。 ■私募新观察 看好资金面与基本面双重驱动 百亿级私募仓位重回八成以上 ◎记者 马嘉悦 百亿级私募仓位尽显攻势 近期，私募仓位愈发积极。 私募排排网数据显示，截至8月15日，股票私募仓位指数为74.86%，较8月8日上涨0.64个百分点，连续 两周上涨。 其中，满仓（仓位超过八成）股票私募占比为54.8%，中等仓位（仓位在五成至八成区间）股票私募占 比为25.8%，仓位低于五成的私募占比不足20%。与8月8日相比，满仓股票私募占比小幅提升。 分规模来看，百亿级私募加仓动作明显。 私募排排网数据显示，截至8月15日，百亿级私募仓位指数为82.29%，较8月8日上涨8 ...

陈刚：反内卷相关政策改善A股盈利预期 未来或有需求侧政策配合 从去年9月4日以来，整体的宏观政策在不断的发力。那么这一轮市场的上涨，很显然在新一轮的反内卷 政策的推行之下展开的。 陈刚：市场短期波动加大 但中长期慢牛趋势不改 在指数创下新高之后，很显然后续市场它不可能按照当前的这个斜率去上涨。我们觉得接下来可能会有 一段时间的震荡盘整，但是这可能只是中短期的走势，中长期来看我们觉得整个A股进入长期慢牛的趋 势可能才刚刚开始。无论是一个月还是两个月的震荡，整个震荡的时间和节奏，可能跟这一轮上涨的时 间和长度是能够对应上的。 主持人：政策的实施效果通常需要一定时间来显现。您认为在当前市场环境下，政策对A股市场的影响 已经在哪些方面有所体现？未来还可能在哪些方面进一步发挥作用？ 8月22日，沪指盘中突破3800点关口，创指更是大涨超2.5%，科技方向领涨。对此，东吴证券首席策略 分析师陈刚表示，市场短期波动或加大，但中长期慢牛趋势不改。反内卷相关政策有力地改善了市场对 股的盈利预期，未来可能还会有需求侧政策进一步配合，改善盈利水平，股市可能逐步转向业绩驱动。 随着慢牛行情的演绎，大盘成长股将展现出优势，证券板块有望 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a slight increase on August 19, with sectors such as rare earths, optical modules CPO, innovative drugs, and liquor leading the gains [1] - The recently popular ChiNext 50 ETF (159783) saw a small rise, with top-performing holdings including Tianfu Communication (300394), Xinyi Sheng (300502), Zhongji Xuchuang (300308), and Huichuan Technology (300124), among which Tianfu Communication surged over 10% at one point [1] - GF Securities noted that the fund allocation ratio in the communication sector increased quarter-on-quarter in Q2, indicating an overall overweight position in the industry, with a clear trend of capital returning to optical modules [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities projected that the market is likely to maintain relative strength in the short term, driven by liquidity, although it may experience amplified volatility and consolidation while attempting to break previous highs [2] - In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to focus on relatively low-position sectors such as consumer electronics, intelligent driving, domestic computing power, and AI software, as well as new consumption and anti-involution related products [2] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159783) tracks the CSI ChiNext 50 Index, which selects 50 of the largest and most technologically advanced companies from the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board, combining the strengths of both boards [2]

Group 1 - A-shares indices have risen significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the previous high of 3731.69 points from February 18, 2021, marking a nearly 10-year high since August 20, 2015 [1] - Most institutions believe that short-term market fluctuations do not alter the overall bullish trend, supported by proactive domestic policies and sustained inflow of medium to long-term capital [1] - Dongwu Securities indicates that while the market may experience volatility during attempts to break previous highs, the medium-term outlook remains positive due to the combination of policy support, asset scarcity, and expectations of a US interest rate cut [1] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities suggests that the bullish market sentiment will continue to dominate, with expectations of a strong market until early September, followed by limited corrections [2] - Dongwu Securities highlights technology growth as a key investment theme, recommending focus on sectors such as consumer electronics, autonomous driving, domestic computing power, and AI software [2] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors like brokerage, insurance, military industry, and rare earths, with additional attention on healthcare and overseas computing power as scarce assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a significant rally, with the total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time, indicating strong investor sentiment and market momentum [2][5]. Market Performance - As of 10:34 AM, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18% to 3740.50 points, marking the highest intraday level since August 20, 2015. The ChiNext Index surged by 3.63%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.25%. Nearly 4500 stocks rose, with 111 hitting the daily limit [2]. - The securities sector led the market rally, with notable gains in brokerage stocks such as Changcheng Securities and Huayin Securities, which saw significant price increases [4]. Sector Analysis - The communication equipment, software, cultural media, electronic components, and internet indices all rose by over 3%, indicating broad-based sector strength [3]. - The brokerage sector is experiencing a surge, with expectations of continued performance improvements as several firms reported net profit increases exceeding 25% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [5][6]. M&A Activity - Recent developments in brokerage mergers and acquisitions have heightened market expectations, with the approval of West Securities as a major shareholder of Guorong Securities, reflecting ongoing consolidation in the industry [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the brokerage sector may have further upside potential, as current performance trends show a divergence from stock price increases, indicating a potential for valuation recovery [8]. - The market is expected to maintain strength in the short term, driven by liquidity, with a potential influx of retail and institutional funds as investor sentiment improves [9][10].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is experiencing strong inflows of new funds, particularly from foreign investments and margin financing, indicating a solid foundation for the ongoing bull market [1][6] - Since June, foreign capital has consistently flowed into the market, with passive funds contributing approximately 19 billion USD, equivalent to over 100 billion CNY into A-shares, and a similar amount into Hong Kong stocks [1][6] Key Market Trends - The market's trading volume has increased from 1.5 trillion to 2.3 trillion, with expectations to reach 2.5 trillion [2] - The bull market is still in its second phase of growth, with historical data suggesting that the market is not close to its peak [8] - Current financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization is around 0.85, below the peak of 0.9, indicating that there is still room for growth [8] Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy focuses on leading sectors such as brokerage firms, non-ferrous metals, and coal [4] - Attention should also be given to low-level state-owned enterprise restructuring areas, including electricity, power, and travel chains [4] - Growth sectors to watch include the Hang Seng Technology sector and domestic computing power layouts, such as Cambrian [4] Monitoring Market Dynamics - Short-term market peaks are typically accompanied by reduced trading volume; however, if the market continues to rise with increasing volume, it may not reach a peak soon [3][9] - Monitoring changes in trading volume is crucial for identifying potential entry points during market corrections [11] Risk Factors - Two primary risk factors to monitor include changes in overseas liquidity and international relations, particularly the stance of the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting [12] - A hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve could trigger market corrections, while international relations, such as the Russia-Ukraine situation, should also be assessed for their potential impact on the market [12] Conclusion - The market remains robust with significant inflows and high trading volumes, suggesting continued upward momentum. However, vigilance is required regarding external factors that could influence market stability and growth potential [10][12]

Core Insights - The continuation of mutual tariff reductions between China and the US is aimed at establishing a mechanism for long-term strategic communication, as highlighted in the joint statement from the Stockholm trade talks [2][10][15] - The agreement includes a 90-day "cooling-off period" during which a 24% tariff will be suspended, while a 10% baseline tariff will remain in place, allowing for adjustments in supply chains and market expectations [2][13][15] - The trade negotiation mechanism has shifted from crisis management to institutional dialogue, focusing on phased compromises and dynamic adjustments to alleviate short-term trade frictions and address deeper issues [2][14][15] Industry and Company Focus - High export exposure industries, such as home appliances and consumer electronics, are expected to benefit from the reduction in tariffs, enhancing their profit elasticity [2][18] - The drive for technological self-sufficiency, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and high-end manufacturing, is supported by domestic substitution and policy incentives [2][18] - High-growth sectors, including domestic computing power (GPU/servers/optical modules), industrial mother machines, and defense industries, are recommended for attention due to their potential for significant development [2][18]

Group 1 - The focus of various brokerage strategies this week is on the impact of deposit migration on the equity market [1] - The Huaxi strategy team believes that the current upward trend in A-shares and market space should not be questioned, with margin trading balances reaching a ten-year high, indicating a recovery in individual investor risk appetite [1][2] - The Xinda strategy team highlights that the main upward wave of the bull market is coming, driven by policy and capital, with a significant amount of existing assets available for market impact [1][3] Group 2 - The Guohai strategy team estimates that by June 2025, residents will have accumulated approximately 33.57 trillion yuan in excess savings, with the financial market capable of absorbing over 1.84 trillion yuan in inflows [1][3] - The current market sentiment is reflected in the active financing transaction volume, which is an important indicator of market sentiment improvement, although it should not be the sole basis for market characterization [3] - The strategy from Zhongxin emphasizes the need to slow down in high-valuation sectors, as the market remains cautious about sectors with high earnings visibility [1][2] Group 3 - The Guangfa strategy team suggests focusing on high-odds sectors such as domestic computing power, consumer electronics, and AI, which are currently underperforming but have low downside risk and are sensitive to positive news [2][4] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations due to various factors, including policy expectations and the upcoming mid-year report disclosures [3] - The overall investment sentiment is improving, with a notable increase in the proportion of actively managed equity funds, indicating a return of active investment advantages [2][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a three-dimensional policy system focusing on short-term stability, medium-term structural adjustment, and long-term breakthroughs, particularly in the context of the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][18] - The report highlights the collaborative approach of fiscal and monetary policies, aiming to create a synergistic effect that enhances economic stability and supports domestic demand [10][18] - The governance of "involution" and optimization of production capacity is underscored, with a focus on regulating disorderly competition and promoting the exit of excess capacity in key industries [11][18] Group 2 - The report suggests monitoring export-oriented industries that may benefit from the reduction of tariffs by the U.S., particularly those with high export ratios such as home appliances and consumer electronics [21] - It identifies high-growth sectors that could thrive under precise policy support and global technological resonance, including domestic computing power and defense industries [21] - The report points to thematic opportunities arising from the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating potential investment avenues aligned with national strategic goals [21]