Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and consumption trends, with short - term price pressure at $11,000 per ton and a need for consolidation [2][4][5]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating bottom - grinding pattern before large - scale production cuts [9][12]. - The aluminum market shows some resilience, with domestic prices mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations, and short - term seasonal inventory accumulation having a relatively low impact on prices [15][17][19]. - The casting aluminum alloy market's ADC12 spot price is expected to be supported by cost, and prices are expected to be positive after a pull - back [23][24][25]. - The zinc market is supported by overseas inventory reduction, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [29][30][31]. - The lead market has a tight balance in lead concentrate supply, and prices may rise and then fall due to supply increases and lackluster consumption growth [34][36][37]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate widely within the range formed by oversupply and cost support [40][42][43]. - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [47][49][50]. - The tin market is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and future trends depend on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [53][58][59]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate within a range, with a possible slight oversupply in November [61][65][66]. - The polysilicon market has a complex situation, with supply - demand factors and warehouse receipt cancellation affecting prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating [67][69][70]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to fluctuate widely, with limited upward and downward drivers in the near term [73][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous settlement price, and the spot premium stabilized. The LME copper price premium was $315 [2]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and Zambia is expected to set a new record for copper production [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply disruptions from mines increase, and consumption shows a "peak season without peak" situation [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may need to consolidate at the $11,000/ton resistance level. Consider long positions on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [5][6][7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell by 15 yuan to 2,856 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, supply was in excess, and the industry's average profit decreased [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increase leads to an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level before large - scale production cuts [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak and oscillating. Keep options and spreads on hold [13][14]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract fell by 25 yuan to 20,980 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and Fed officials' differences in interest rate cuts affected the market. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased slightly [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The London aluminum price is under pressure at the upper edge of the wide - range oscillation range. Domestic prices are mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 20 yuan to 20,465 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [23]. - **Important Information**: After the National Day holiday, many enterprises increased inventory, and the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to support the ADC12 spot price [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [25][26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 rose 0.32% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shanghai increased due to supply shortages [29]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the Kipushi concentrator set a new production record [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas inventory reduction supports prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices are supported by the external market. Consider short positions on rallies. Keep options and spreads on hold [32]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 rose 0.59% to 17,140 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased, but downstream buying willingness declined [34]. - **Important Information**: Some lead smelters in Anhui resumed production or were about to resume production [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is in a tight balance, and the production of secondary lead may increase, while consumption in the peak season is not as expected [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices may rise and then fall. Keep options and spreads on hold [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell by 940 to 122,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [40]. - **Important Information**: Indonesian nickel - mining policies and export controls on some products affected the market [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME inventory increased, and the impact of export controls was small. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [42][43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [43][44][45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2511 fell by 20 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Overseas policies are expected to boost exports, and the WTO ruled that the EU's anti - dumping measures against Indonesian stainless steel products were illegal [48][49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [49][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep spreads on hold [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 rose by 1,280 to 286,350 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. The market expected a short - term weak situation to continue [53]. - **Important Information**: The US may release CPI data, and Indonesia adjusted the tin procurement price and strengthened industry governance [54][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrate is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation. Keep options on hold and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.46% to 8,685 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [61][62]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand may lead to a slight oversupply in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range of (8,200, 9,300) for the near - month contract. Keep options and spreads on hold [66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fell 2.43% to 48,965 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [67]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand factors are bearish on prices in October, and warehouse receipt cancellation will be the main logic in November. The market is in a state of high - level game [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating. Hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [69][70][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell by 960 to 72,740 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged [73]. - **Important Information**: Zangge Mining obtained mining rights, and export controls on some products were implemented [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory decreased during the holiday, and the impact of export controls was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [79].

供需失衡未有扭转 工业硅弱于多晶硅运行 请阅读正文后的声明 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 工业硅月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 多晶硅月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃/纯碱） 2025-07-09：《光伏电力行业专题报 告： ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 现货价格持稳，工业硅多晶硅震荡运行 工业硅： 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9500（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8700-9000（-100）元/吨，99硅价格在8700-9000（-100）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西 北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 SMM统计10月9日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.5万吨，较国庆节前增加0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库12万吨，较 节前环比持平，社会交割仓库42.5万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较节前增加0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10900-11200（0）元/吨。SMM报道，DMC报价也处于相对平稳状态。供 应方面，当前国内 DMC 单体生产企业的开工负荷保持在节前水平，整体行业开工率约为 71% ，供应规模相对稳 定。此外，多数单体生产企业手中仍持有一定量的预售订单支撑，且上游原材料成本端价格维持稳定，为 DMC 价 格提供了较强的成本支撑，双重因素叠加使得单体厂的挺价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

10月9日，大全能源涨2.12%，成交额6.71亿元。两融数据显示，当日大全能源获融资买入额9756.21万 元，融资偿还9686.17万元，融资净买入70.04万元。截至10月9日，大全能源融资融券余额合计8.62亿 元。 资料显示，新疆大全新能源股份有限公司位于新疆石河子市经济开发区化工新材料产业园北二十路66 号，成立日期2011年2月22日，上市日期2021年7月22日，公司主营业务涉及从事高纯多晶硅的研发、制 造与销售。主营业务收入构成为：高纯多晶硅97.95%，副产品及其他2.05%。 截至6月30日，大全能源股东户数3.51万，较上期减少2.64%；人均流通股15763股，较上期增加2.71%。 2025年1月-6月，大全能源实现营业收入14.70亿元，同比减少67.93%；归母净利润-11.47亿元，同比减 少71.10%。 分红方面，大全能源A股上市后累计派现97.43亿元。近三年，累计派现85.88亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，大全能源十大流通股东中，华夏上证科创板50成份ETF （588000）位居第一大流通股东，持股3556.22万股，相比上期减少72.79万股。香港 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: October 9, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Morning Observation of Non - ferrous and Precious Metals - Report Sector: Non - ferrous metals and precious metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical reasoning, and provides trading strategies for various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Overall, the precious metals market is in an upward trend, while different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and challenges, such as supply shortages, demand fluctuations, and policy impacts [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Metal Type Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold broke through the $4000/oz mark, closing up 1.4% at $4040.745/oz; London silver rose 2.36% to $48.88/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.767, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.11% [2]. - **Important Information**: The US Senate rejected the bipartisan appropriation bill, the Fed is divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of interest rate cuts is high. Trump announced a peace plan between Israel and Hamas [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Uncertainties such as the US government shutdown, global political turmoil, and China's increase in gold reserves have increased investors' demand for gold as a hedge, pushing up gold prices. Silver prices have also risen due to expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long on the dips for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; take profit on out - of - the - money call options and collar call options bought before the holiday [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper closed at $10701/ton, down 0.23%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 139,200 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1947 tons to 335,500 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown continued, QB mine cut copper production guidance, Aurubis raised the price of refined copper, and Australia provided financial support to copper smelters [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Copper mine supply is tight, and the transfer from the mine end to the smelting end may be faster. Consumption is weak, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - sided trading; hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decreases; wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2868 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a narrow - range decline [10][11]. - **Important Information**: Overseas alumina was traded at different prices, Inalum planned to expand production, and the supply of alumina was estimated to be in surplus in September [11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply is in an excess pattern, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating pattern before large - scale production cuts [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina to maintain a weak trend for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20160 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [16]. - **Important Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises extended their holidays [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for raw material inventory in recycled aluminum plants is restricted, and the holiday of downstream die - casting enterprises is extended. The spot price is expected to be firm, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the aluminum alloy futures price to open higher and then weaken slightly for single - sided trading; pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage if the futures price opens higher; wait and see for options [17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The SHFE aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20680 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum price rose 3.22% during the holiday. The spot price increased [20]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and the Fed's internal differences in interest rate cuts. The domestic aluminum rod production capacity expanded, and some enterprises increased production during the holiday [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by interest rate cut expectations and the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector, the LME aluminum price rose during the holiday. The domestic demand is slowly recovering, and there may be short - term inventory accumulation after the holiday [21][22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing high prices and wait and see for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc price fell 1.53% to $2995/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Important Information**: Kipushi mine increased production, Golden Grove mine postponed high - grade zinc ore mining, and the LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The non - ferrous metal sector was strong during the holiday, and the LME zinc inventory decreased to a two - year low. The domestic market is in surplus, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic is expected to continue [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the SHFE zinc price to be strong in the short term and go short on the high for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [28]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead price fell 0.02% to $2005.5/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME lead inventory was high [30]. - **Important Information**: A lead - zinc mine in Fujian postponed production [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for lead concentrate is large, and the supply is in a tight balance. The primary lead smelter is in a small loss, and the secondary lead smelter may increase production. The consumption season is not as expected [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the lead price to fall; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [33]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price fell to $15390/ton, and the inventory increased. The spot premium decreased [34]. - **Important Information**: Global nickel demand and production are expected to increase in 2026, and Indonesia adjusted the RKAB approval system [34][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global primary nickel supply is expected to be in excess, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for options [37]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2511 contract closed at 12730 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [39]. - **Important Information**: The EU tightened steel import policies, and a South Korean buyer cancelled an order from a Taiwanese supplier [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand for stainless steel is differentiated, and the supply is high. Without production - capacity reduction policies, the trend is weak [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a weak oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage [42]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures price fell before the holiday, and the spot price was at a premium [44][45]. - **Important Information**: Industrial silicon exports increased in August, and imports decreased [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: The output increased, and the demand was strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on the dips [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on the dips for single - sided trading; buy out - of - the - money put options for options; no strategy for arbitrage [46]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price oscillated narrowly before the holiday, and the spot price was stable [48]. - **Important Information**: India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese polysilicon products [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase in October, demand is weakening, and there may be a callback in November. It is recommended to buy on the dips after the callback [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on the dips after a full callback for single - sided trading; conduct reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts for arbitrage; buy deep out - of - the - money call and put options for options [49]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract closed at 72800 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: Chile's lithium exports increased in September, the US terminated energy projects, and a Chinese research team made a breakthrough in solid - state lithium batteries [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are tight in October and may return to balance in November. October may be a turning point [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a wide - range oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The LME tin price fell to $36250/ton, and the spot price rose. The LME tin inventory increased [57][58]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown continued, and the global AI infrastructure expenditure is expected to reach $2 trillion in 2026 [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term weak oscillation and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar for single - sided trading; wait and see for options [58][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and production cuts, with supply expected to increase and consumption remaining weak next week. The overall trend is a bullish one, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [3][7][8]. - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillating pattern before large - scale production cuts [15]. - The aluminum market is influenced by overseas monetary policy expectations, and prices are expected to rise with the external market, despite short - term seasonal inventory accumulation [20][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost, and futures prices are expected to be relatively strong [26][27]. - The zinc market may be supported by overseas de - stocking, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale overseas warehousing. Short - term prices may be strong, but short positions can be lightly tested at high prices [32][33][34]. - The lead market has a tight balance in the raw material end and uncertain production at the smelting end. Consumption is not as expected in the peak season. Prices may rise in the short term but have a risk of falling back [39][40][41]. - The nickel market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation due to a large surplus in the next two years and limited impact from policy changes [44][46][47]. - The stainless steel market has a differentiated terminal demand, and prices are expected to oscillate widely, following the macro - sentiment and nickel prices [53][54][55]. - The tin market has a tight supply at the mine end, and short - term prices may oscillate with limited space. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][62][63]. - The industrial silicon market has strong short - term demand, and the strategy is to buy on dips [67][68][70]. - The polysilicon market is affected by supply - demand imbalance, and the optimal strategy is to buy low after a callback [73][74][75]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight supply - demand situation in October, but may return to balance in November. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [77][79][80]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 86,750 yuan/ton, up 4.19%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 31,427 lots to 564,600 lots [2]. - Spot: After the holiday, copper prices soared, and spot trading was sluggish. Premiums varied in different regions [2]. Important Information - As of October 9, the national mainstream copper inventory increased, and it is expected to increase next week due to supply increase and consumption weakness [3]. - On October 8, the Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals resumed operations at its Peruvian copper mine [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply disruptions and production cuts intensify the tightness of copper mines, and the transfer from the mine end to the smelting end may be faster. Consumption is weak, and prices are mainly affected by rigid demand [5][7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy and be cautious when chasing high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 2,875 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 11,316 lots to 387,800 lots [11]. - Spot: Prices in different regions showed a downward trend [11]. Related Information - An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the price decreased. National inventory increased, and there was a monthly supply surplus [12]. - The weighted average full cost of alumina decreased in September, and the industry's average profit decreased [13]. Logic Analysis - Supply continues to increase, resulting in an oversupply situation. Production cuts may occur in October or November, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to be weak [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract increased by 335 yuan to 21,090 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 38,408 lots to 500,500 lots [18]. - Spot: Aluminum ingot prices in different regions increased [18]. Related Information - The US government shut down, and economic data release was delayed. Domestic aluminum rod production capacity expanded, and inventory increased after the holiday [18][19]. Trading Logic - Affected by overseas monetary policy expectations, aluminum prices are expected to rise with the external market, despite short - term inventory accumulation [20][21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to rise in an oscillating manner [22]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [22]. - Options: Wait and see [23]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract increased by 300 yuan to 20,550 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 1,259 lots to 21,433 lots [25]. - Spot: Prices remained stable in different regions [25]. Related Information - The warehouse - receipt of aluminum alloy on the SHFE increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises had extended holidays [25]. Trading Logic - The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to drive the price of ADC12 spot [26]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Futures prices are expected to be relatively strong [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 increased by 1.73% to 22,315 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased its positions by 13,700 lots to 221,200 lots [31]. - Spot: Trading was mainly among traders, and downstream enterprises had low willingness to receive goods [31]. Related Information - Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased after the holiday, and the Kipushi mine in Congo (Kinshasa) increased production [32]. Logic Analysis - Overseas de - stocking may support prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale overseas warehousing [33]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term prices may be strong, and short positions can be lightly tested at high prices [34]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [34]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2511 increased by 1.09% to 17,115 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index decreased its positions by 991 lots to 71,900 lots [36]. - Spot: The market was in a wait - and - see mood, and trading was light [36][38]. Related Information - Lead ingot inventory decreased, and the resumption of a lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed [39]. Logic Analysis - The raw material end is in a tight balance, and the smelting end has uncertain production. Consumption is not as expected in the peak season [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rise in the short term but have a risk of falling back [41]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [41]. Nickel Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel 2511 contract increased by 2,900 to 124,480 yuan/ton [43]. - Spot: Premiums of different brands of nickel remained stable or slightly increased [43]. Related Information - Global nickel demand and production are expected to increase in 2026. Indonesia adjusted the RKAB quota approval system, and Antam invested in a nickel project [44][46]. Logic Analysis - The nickel market has a large surplus in the next two years, and policy changes have limited impact. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [46]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [47]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [48]. - Options: Wait and see [49]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The Stainless Steel SS2511 contract increased by 75 to 12,860 yuan/ton [51]. - Spot: Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [52]. Important Information - The EU tightened steel import policies, a South Korean buyer cancelled an order from Taiwan, and an Indian stainless steel company put a new plant into operation [53][54]. Logic Analysis - Terminal demand is differentiated, and prices are expected to oscillate widely, following the macro - sentiment and nickel prices [54]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [55]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [56]. Tin Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Tin 2511 contract closed at 287,070 yuan/ton, up 2.99%, and positions increased by 13,345 lots to 70,056 lots [58]. - Spot: The market was inactive, and downstream replenishment willingness was low [58]. Related Information - PT Timah in Indonesia adjusted the tin sand purchase price and payment method, and the government cracked down on illegal mining [59]. Logic Analysis - The US government shutdown and Indonesian mining crackdown have limited impact on supply. The mine end is still tight, and short - term supply shows improvement signs [62]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term prices may oscillate with limited space, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar [63]. - Options: Wait and see [64]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: The Industrial Silicon 2511 contract oscillated and closed at 8,640 yuan/ton [65]. - Spot: Spot prices were at a premium to futures [66]. Related Information - Industrial silicon exports increased in August, and imports decreased [67]. Comprehensive Analysis - Affected little by the external market, with strong short - term demand, the strategy is to buy on dips [68]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips [70]. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options [70]. - Arbitrage: None [70]. Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The Polysilicon 2511 contract first fell and then rose, closing at 50,765 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day's settlement price [72]. - Spot: Spot prices were stable [72]. Related Information - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells [73]. Comprehensive Analysis - Supply - demand is bearish for the market, and the optimal strategy is to buy low after a callback [74]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy low after a sufficient callback [75]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread between 2511 and 2512 contracts [75]. - Options: Buy deep out - of - the - money call and put options [75]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract increased by 200 to 73,340 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 670 to 42,379 tons [76]. - Spot: Spot prices remained stable [76]. Important Information - Chile's lithium exports in September, the US terminated energy projects, a Chinese research team made a breakthrough in solid - state batteries, and a large lithium deposit was discovered in Germany [77][78]. Logic Analysis - Supply - demand is tight in October but may return to balance in November. October may be a critical turning point [79]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Wait and see [81].

多晶硅产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 50765 | -595 多晶硅11-12价差 | -2800 | -240 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 84987 | -2372 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 42125 | -595 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 52550 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 1190 | -80 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 6.54 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8640 | 0 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 76642.01 | 2635.83 | | ...

| 胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月9日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 9月30日 | 9月29日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF): 上海 | 14300 | 14550 | -250 | -1.72% | | | 全家 其关 | -730 | 14650 | -15380 | -104.98% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14800 | 14850 | -50 | -0.34% | | | 非标价差 | -230 | -525 | 205 | 56.19% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 20:22 | 0.00 | 50.55 | #DIV/0! | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.80 | 0.00 | 54.80 | #DIV/0i | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 130 ...