Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

网传的会议整改意见要求显示，不得约定产能、产能利用率、产销量以及销售价格；不得通过出资比 例，以任何形式进行市场划分、产量分配、利润分配；不得对当前、今后的价格、成本、产销量等信息 开展沟通协调。 据悉，自多晶硅涨价后，监管方面接到多起举报。此次会议主要内容涉及通报行业整合方案有关垄断风 险、明确整改意见并对企业做好整改工作提出要求等。 北京商报讯（记者 马换换 李佳雪）近日，市场有消息称中国光伏行业协会以及多家多晶硅龙头企业接 受市场监管总局约谈。参会企业包括通威、协鑫、大全能源、新特能源、亚硅硅业、东方希望等。对 此，1月9日，北京商报记者从业内人士处获悉，该消息属实。 今年12月，光伏行业为推进"反内卷"筹备多时的"多晶硅平台公司"北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司正式 成立，股东包括通威、协鑫、大全能源等硅料龙头企业。伴随着此次约谈事件，不排除多晶硅收储方案 未来面临调整。 ...

4.印尼能源和矿产资源部部长表示，印尼可能在2026年批准约6亿吨的煤炭产量配额，并将根据行业需求调整其镍配额。印尼 镍冶炼厂协会估计，2026年国内冶炼厂的镍矿需求将从2025年的约3亿吨升至约3.4亿至3.5亿吨。 5.芝商所（CME）当地时间8日发出通知，上调贵金属品种履约保证金，这是其近一个月以来第三次发出此类通知。通知称，其 将于当地时间1月9日盘后，上调黄金、白银、铂金和钯金期货的跨期价差及相关价差合约履约保证金。 重点关注 尿素、碳酸锂、多晶硅、原油、塑料 夜盘表现 板块表现 -8.00 -7.00 -6.00 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 板块涨跌幅（%） -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% -5.00% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 非金属建材, 2.17% 贵金属, 30.68% 油脂油料, 8.01% 有色, 28.17% 软商 ...

转自：新华财经 双焦近期反弹态势明显，尽管8日日盘时段，焦煤主力合约较夜盘高点明显回落，但终盘仍以超4%的涨幅领涨商品市场。焦煤基本面短期内变化有限，但供 应端相对偏紧的预期仍在，且黑色系整体估值偏低，容易受到利多因素提振。不过，今日市场情绪降温，同时最新的数据显示，钢材再度累库，终端需求疲 弱带来的负反馈压力持续，盘面也承压调整。展望后市，银河期货认为，当前焦煤供需较为平衡，无明显矛盾，行情主要驱动来自宏观情绪及资金，市场消 息及传闻则起到了催化剂作用，波动较为剧烈。但行情的持续仍需观察基本面改善情况，需谨慎看待。中期看，煤矿供应端的政策对于煤炭产量有长效的约 束，煤价有政策托底，但同时也要考虑上方保供、能源安全政策的压制。焦煤价格预计呈现"下有底，上有顶"的格局。 玻璃主力合约今日延续强势运行，收涨2.65%。一方面是受到了成本端煤炭价格走高的支撑；另一方面，现货市场情绪略有好转，带动库存下降，据隆众资 讯，截至1月8日，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存环比下降2.37%。国投期货预计，由于近期冷修4条线，目前三种燃料产线均亏损，未来可能会继续压缩产 能。但需求端，加工订单延续低迷态势，环比走弱，同比较低，需求 ...

1、中国石化中国航油官宣重组 有何影响 重要程度：★★★★★ 据国资委网站，经报国务院批准，中国石油化工集团有限公司与中国航空油料集团有限公司实施重组。 业内人士认为，此项改革是中央企业战略性、专业化重组整合的布局落子，也是应对国际竞争与绿色转型 的主动作为，有望助力降低航空燃料供应成本，增强我国航空燃料产业竞争力，促进航空业绿色低碳转 型。 商务部8日举行例行新闻发布会，商务部新闻发言人何亚东在回应有关审查Meta收购人工智能平台Manus的 提问时说，中国政府一贯支持企业依法依规开展互利共赢的跨国经营与国际技术合作。需要说明的是，企 业从事对外投资、技术出口、数据出境、跨境并购等活动，须符合中国法律法规，履行法定程序。商务部 将会同相关部门对此项收购与出口管制、技术进出口、对外投资等相关法律法规的一致性开展评估调查。 5、市场监管总局通报多晶硅垄断风险?相关方回应来了 2、剑指中国商业航天新一极!广州拟攻关可复用火箭技术 重要程度：★★★★ 1月8日，广州市人民政府办公厅发布《广州市加快建设先进制造业强市规划(2024—2035年)》，提出到 2035年，打造具有全球影响力的中国商业航天新一极。 《规划》 ...

又见小作文影响市场，多晶硅期货跌停！ 1月8日午后，国内商品期货风云突变，多晶硅期货跌停、贵金属、有色金属市场全线跳水，白银、镍、铜大跌。截至收盘，多 晶硅主力期货大跌9%，封住跌停板，集运欧线跌超8%，铂、沪镍跌超6%，沪银跌超5%，工业硅跌超4%，钯、硅铁跌超3%。 在多晶硅主力期货跌停的同时，多晶硅认沽期权价格暴涨，其中多晶硅2602沽52000收盘报1102，单日暴涨110100%，甚至在同 花顺软件中涨幅的位置，110100%数字与涨幅出现了重叠，该合约今天成交了1405万元。 | 多昌硅2602±52000 ps2602-P-52000 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1102 | +1101 10100.0 | | | 委比 | -81.82% -18 | 开户 | | HM | 1200 | 20 | | 采入 | 1103 | | | 成交 | 1102 - 2 | 20 | | 张胜 | +1101 昨收 | 12 | | 涨幅(310100.00%最高 | | 1450 | | 振幅 -11925.00% 最低 | | 19 | | 现手 | 17均价 | 514 ...

多晶硅期货市场在2026年初遇挫。 8日，多晶硅期货主力合约遭遇单日暴跌9.00%，报收56024元/吨，较前一交易日结算价重挫5300元，盘中最低触及53610元/吨。主力合约2605同 步大幅下探，跌幅超过7%，日内最低触及54500元/吨。现货市场随之承压，据安泰科数据，虽然N型复投料周环比名义上涨，但日内已显现跟跌 压力，部分贸易商已启动降价出货策略，市场情绪迅速转冷。 此次下跌不仅是资金面的短期博弈，更是行业对2026年供需格局悲观预期的集中释放。据广州期货交易所及同花顺金融数据库显示，当日主力合 约持仓量大幅减少4212手，资金离场迹象显著。此次抛售发生在下游组件排产低迷、库存高企的背景下。 尽管短期市场面临剧烈调整，但机构分析认为下方空间受成本线制约。东证期货有色金属首席分析师孙伟东在2025年12月25日研报中表示，当前 价格波动是"梦想与现实的较量"，虽然短期面临需求真空期，但行业平均完全成本约为4.8万元/吨，预计2026年盘面将在4.2万至8万元/吨之间波 动，4.2万元一线或成关键成本支撑位。 供需失衡加剧 在供给侧改革迟滞的同时，需求侧的信号更为严峻。当前正值一季度传统淡季，下游组件 ...

新特能源(01799)盘中跌近4%，截至发稿，跌3.11%，报7.47港元，成交额609.38万港元。 消息面上，1月8日，多晶硅主力合约触及跌停，跌幅9%，报53610元/吨。据集邦光储观察，供给端， 当前硅料库存突破48万吨，累库趋势未改。尽管通威等头部厂商通过"低价老单搭配高价新单"的捆绑方 式实现少量出货，但整体供给压力仍大。预计后续在行业自律配额制约下，厂商将通过大幅减产来控制 供给。 华泰期货日前指出，多晶硅价格预计将维持5.4-6万元/吨区间震荡整理，广期所出台的上调保证金的风 控措施提高了交易持仓门槛，压制了市场情绪。库存积压及供应端的压力使得高价成交较少或是当日价 格下跌原因。短期内关注硅片新报价和1月排产计划：中长期则需观密收储政策落地情况和库存去化进 度。 ...

消息面上，1月8日，多晶硅主力合约触及跌停，跌幅9%，报53610元/吨。据集邦光储观察，供给端， 当前硅料库存突破48万吨，累库趋势未改。尽管通威等头部厂商通过"低价老单搭配高价新单"的捆绑方 式实现少量出货，但整体供给压力仍大。预计后续在行业自律配额制约下，厂商将通过大幅减产来控制 供给。 智通财经APP获悉，新特能源(01799)盘中跌近4%，截至发稿，跌3.11%，报7.47港元，成交额609.38万 港元。 华泰期货日前指出，多晶硅价格预计将维持5.4-6万元/吨区间震荡整理，广期所出台的上调保证金的风 控措施提高了交易持仓门槛，压制了市场情绪。库存积压及供应端的压力使得高价成交较少或是当日价 格下跌原因。短期内关注硅片新报价和1月排产计划：中长期则需观密收储政策落地情况和库存去化进 度。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-08 库存持续积压，多晶硅震荡下行 工业硅： 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，供需双减的情况下叠加焦煤价格上涨与光伏产业链价格上涨传导效果，价格支 撑明显。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场分析 2026-01-07，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于9050元/吨，最后收于8980元/吨，较前一日结算变化（95） 元/吨，变化（1.07）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓244734手，2026-01-06仓单总数为10799手，较前一日变化 112手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月31日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.7万吨，较上周变化0.36%。 消费端：据SMM统 ...