6 电话：0755-23838239 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 9 月 8 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号： S1080525070001 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 9 月 5 日晚 8 点半美国劳工统计局公布 8 月劳动力市场数据。 评论： 美国 8 月季调后非农就业人口增 2.2 万人，预期增 7.5 万人，前值（7 月）从增 7.3 万人上修为增 7.9 万人；8 月失业率为 4.3%，预期为 4.3%，前值为 4.2%；8 月劳 动参与率为 62.2%，预期为 62.3%，前值为 62.2%。失业率与非农调查的背离，主 要是因为非农就业机构调查受特朗普移民政策的影响更大。 美国 8 月平均每小时工资同比升 3.7%，预期升 3.7%，前值由升 3.9%；8 月平均每 小时工资环比升 0.3%，预期升 0.3%，前值升 0.3%。 从结构上看，美国 8 月季调后政府部门就业人口减 1.6 万人，前值增 0.2 万人；8 月私人非农就业人数增 3.8 万人，前值增 7.7 万人。其 ...

凤凰网财经讯 9月8日，A股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，沪指跌0.02%，深成指涨0.33%，创业板指涨 0.21%。电池、航天装备等板块涨幅居前，免税、CPO等板块指数跌幅居前。 机构观点 华泰证券：行业短周期继续分化，TMT、先进制造主动补库有望延续 中信建投：持续看多锂电、储能 中信建投表示，锂电方面，旺季来临+储能超预期，电芯涨价在即，且需求远期能见度高，板块供需关 系已经彻底扭转，业绩确定性强估值低位具备高低切逻辑。看好：①业绩稳定的低估值龙头公司；②弹 性标的关注6F率先涨价。储能方面，136号文后峰谷差拉大+各省容量政策到位推进国内市场招标数据 持续高增。海外市场今年以来欧洲、澳洲、亚洲市场需求好，预计行业仍将维持高景气。持续看多锂 电、储能。 天风证券：政策加持、巨头引领、发布会催化临近，全面看好端侧AI 天风证券表示，看好政策加持、巨头引领、发布会催化临近背景下，端侧AI相关投资机遇。苹果近期 动态彰显其在端侧AI方面产品创新决心，对使用体验及销量的拉动有超预期的可能，建议关注苹果产 业链。 华泰证券表示，A股中报业绩已披露完毕，本季度财报基本延续一季报磨底的特征，板块分化仍较为明 显：1）短周期 ...

重大活动结束港股上周连续跌了好几天，还好关键位置出现反弹。 【主编观市】 调整的原因在于有人借利好出货，另外也有做空小作文推波助澜。 美国8月季调后非农就业人口录得2.2万人，远低于市场预期的7.5万人。美联储降息25已经毫无疑问悬 念，接下来如果通胀数据不冒头，降50都是有可能的。 同时，2025年8月末，中国官方黄金储备为7402万盎司，较上月末增加6万盎司。目前，中国央行已连续 10个月增持黄金。预计黄金股持续受益。 恒指持续调整之后，后面反弹会相对顺畅。固态电池成为反弹的先锋，基本面好转及反内卷取得成效是 主要因素，光伏也比较类似。 其他方向，据最新消息，美国总统特朗普宣布，从全球国别关税中豁免石墨、钨、铀、金条等金属产 品，同时将硅产品纳入征税清单。这些调整将于当地时间下周一生效。这类被豁免的品种属于战略资 源，价值有望重估。 首届深空经济与产业发展大会近日在安徽合肥召开。此次大会意义重大，不仅首次提出"深空经济"概念 框架，同时系统梳理了深空经济十大产业方向，并预计2040年全球深空经济规模将达到万亿美元。相关 概念值得关注。 当地时间9月5日，俄罗斯总统普京在东方经济论坛全会上表示，俄罗斯相应也 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI's contribution to the growth of the computer sector will further increase in the second half of 2025, driven by factors such as CAPEX acceleration, technological upgrades, and supply improvements [1] - The computing industry is expected to see a significant acceleration in revenue and a notable improvement in net profit in the first half of 2025, with the computing power sector experiencing high growth [1] - The growth of the "Xinchuang" (信创) sector is expected to continue its positive trend and accelerate in the second half of the year, with potential expansion into industrial software and other areas [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is likely to continue a volatile upward trend, with a focus on short-term fluctuation risks and marginal changes in market volume [2] - Growth sectors have shown high levels of prosperity in the first half of the year, with potential for rotation among sectors such as machinery and electrical equipment, which have rebound potential [2] - Low-position sectors, particularly certain consumer segments, may strengthen under policy support, while mid-to-long-term focus should be on supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery [2] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in industries with solid industrial logic, such as communication equipment, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - There is a highlighted focus on sectors benefiting from China's manufacturing advantages and trade growth with non-US economies, including white goods and engineering machinery [3] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from improved market sentiment, with attention on insurance and brokerage firms [3]

Group 1 - The report from CICC suggests that liquidity expectations are improving, highlighting mid to long-term advantages in sectors such as communication equipment, semiconductors, electronic hardware, solid-state batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, national defense and military industry, and robotics [1] - China's manufacturing advantages are becoming more prominent, with a focus on foreign trade growth and companies that have established overseas production capacity in sectors like white goods, construction machinery, and power grid equipment [1] - The recovery in capital market sentiment is expected to boost financial performance, with attention on insurance and brokerage firms [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" trend is guiding supply contraction in industries, with policy efforts expected to catalyze demand stabilization, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [1] - There may be differentiation within dividend sectors, with a focus on quality cash flow, volatility, and dividend certainty, particularly in telecommunications and banking [1]

Group 1 - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests a favorable liquidity outlook, highlighting mid to long-term advantages in sectors such as communication equipment, semiconductors, electronic hardware, solid-state batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, national defense, and robotics [1] - The competitive edge of Chinese manufacturing is emphasized, with a focus on white goods, construction machinery, and power grid equipment that have established overseas production capacity and are benefiting from trade growth with non-US economies [1] - The recovery in capital market sentiment is expected to boost financial performance, particularly in the insurance and brokerage sectors [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" trend is leading to a contraction in industry supply, with policy initiatives expected to stabilize demand, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [1] - There may be differentiation within dividend sectors, with an emphasis on quality cash flow, volatility, and dividend certainty, particularly in telecommunications and banking [1]

摘要 美国即将降息，与之前预期的同与不同 20250907 降息利好或受需求端扰动，投资策略维持不变，关注降息带动确定性更 强的细分板块，如工具类公司（巨星、全峰创科）及租赁利息占比较高 的工程机械、叉车、商用餐饮设备等。 通胀向下游传导缓慢，国内企业和美国企业均面临压力。8 月就业时薪 数据表明核心服务通胀压力不大，若 2026 年需求转好，价格传导将缓 解压力。 2026 年市场需求改善是关注重点，美国建设支出稳定，设备更新需求 受压制后将快速修复，制造业回流和市中心建设将推升需求，预计现金 流和盈利预期优于 2025 年。 对美出口链投资应聚焦于受通胀影响小、降息带动效应强的板块，如地 产链及受高利率压制领域，这些领域在经济改善中具有更强弹性。 美国降息扩展全球政策空间，促进欧洲资本品需求修复，欧美市场在资 本品端可能形成正向带动。新兴市场和海外建厂需求之外，欧美市场不 再是拖累项。 如何展望 2026 年的市场需求及其影响？ 在八月份就业数据发布后，市场对九月份降息的预期进一步增强，并且乐观预 期全年降息次数可能增加。尽管就业数据不佳坚定了九月降息的可能性，但也 引发了市场对潜在衰退的担忧。因此，降息 ...

9月6日，上汽通用五菱汽车股份有限公司与华为技术有限公司在柳州举行宝骏"三智"深化合作签约仪 式，全面升级战略合作伙伴关系，这是广西柳州市大力推进"人工智能+制造"行动、全力打造广西人工 智能应用场景暨产业集群创新基地的最新成果。 据悉，上汽通用五菱是我国首个累计产销量达3000万辆的中国品牌车企，目前正积极开展"电智化、数 字化、全球化"变革。根据协议，双方将在辅助驾驶、智能座舱、智能制造"三智"方面深化合作，联合 开发搭载华为先进智能技术的全新车型，共同推动汽车产业智能化和网联化的高质量发展。 传统制造业加速"智改数转" 当前，柳州以人工智能和制造业深度融合为主线，以建设国家中小企业数字化转型试点城市为契机，推 动汽车、钢铁、工程机械等行业435家中小企业开展数字化转型，加速企业运用人工智能等前沿技术， 不断实现传统产业转型升级。 在广西新能源汽车实验室，上汽通用五菱围绕辅助驾驶、智能交互、智能管理和智能运维等新能源汽车 智能化关键技术，展开了长达15年的深入探索，取得了一系列创新性技术成果。目前，实验室已经获批 广西壮族自治区科技尖峰行动专项36项，获得2亿元以上的科技经费支持，联合清华大学等高等院校采 ...

核心观点 （1）人形机器人：马斯克巨额薪酬计划提及产品目标之一为累计交付100 万台机器人，进一步表明特 斯拉将在该领域继续深耕；后续V3 的发布以及量产推进也值得关注，建议重视板块布局期。（2）工程 机械： 8 月挖机内外销均实现双位数增长，非挖同步复苏，行业内外需共振向上逻辑持续兑现。（3）固态电 池设备：工信部等联合印发《电子信息制造业2025—2026 年稳增长行动方案》，其中明确指出通过国 家重点研发计划相关领域重点专项，持续支持全固态电池等前沿技术方向基础研究。 行业动态信息 人形机器人：国内外人形机器人催化不断，建议重视板块布局期。特斯拉Optimus 始终是机器人行情的 核心，前期量产波折后对于明年展望逐步清晰，将利好板块β 表现；此外马斯克巨额薪酬计划中也提及 产品目标之一为累计交付100 万台机器人，进一步表明特斯拉将在该领域继续深耕；后续V3 的发布以 及量产推进也值得关注。此外，宇树明确Q4 提交上市申请文件的节奏，优必选取得2.5 亿元的具身智能 人形机器人合同，预计国产链条下半年来自于资本运作、订单出货等消息将不断催化。我们继续看好板 块整体行情，推荐产业趋势更优、放量更快的传感器 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The demand for capital goods in Europe and the US is expected to recover, driven by increased infrastructure investment and manufacturing demand, which will benefit leading manufacturers of construction machinery, high-altitude machinery, and forklifts in China [2][6][9] - In Europe, significant infrastructure investment plans have been approved, including approximately €800 billion for the "Rearmament of Europe" and a €500 billion investment plan by Germany, which are expected to boost the demand for construction-related capital goods [6] - In the US, factors such as corporate tax cuts, interest rate reduction expectations, and the return of high-end manufacturing are anticipated to improve cash flow for foreign enterprises and restore capital goods demand [7][8] Summary by Sections European Market - European infrastructure investment is set to improve, with major plans approved, leading to a recovery in construction capital goods demand [6] - The manufacturing sector in Europe shows signs of improvement, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI reaching a 38-month high of 50.7 in August 2025, indicating a strong production growth [6] US Market - The US construction spending is nearing a turning point, with new orders for construction machinery showing a year-on-year increase of 3% in the first half of 2025 [8] - Major companies like Caterpillar and JLG have reported significant recovery in sales and orders, indicating a positive trend in the US capital goods market [8] Chinese Market - China's leading manufacturers in construction machinery, high-altitude machinery, and forklifts are expected to benefit from the recovering demand in Europe and the US, with exports to Western Europe increasing by 23.5% year-on-year in July 2025 [9] - The competitive edge of Chinese brands is improving due to product differentiation and advancements in technology, positioning them well for future growth [9]