| | | | 价格区间判 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 信息汇总及行情研判 | 流动性判断 | 断，短期（1 周内）+长期 | 场内期权策略 | | | | | （1月内） | | | | 当前市场主流预期，100%的关税难以落地，最终回到TACO交易，只是时间问题。这种情况下，如果前期科技资产的仓位已 经获得显著的浮盈，短期可以适当降低部分恒科仓位，观望，并选择更好时机以更低成本再介入恒生科技。 | | | | | 港股 | 但如果贸易战恶化的形式比市场当前主流预期更严峻。参考19年贸易战经验，部分形成产业趋势的科技板块即便在关税冲击 | | | | | | 下短期暴跌，也能在市场波动率下降、风险偏好企稳阶段重拾涨势，占优全年。因此，这种情况下仍然推荐港股把握科技 | | | | | | （ai/创新药/自主可控）+红利的杠铃策略，择机抄底科技资产。 | | | | | | 短期美股因情绪导致的波动可能难以避免，但情绪层面的冲击会明显小于四月，不会跌那么狠。短期可以适当降低部分美股 | | | | | 美股 | 仓位，观望，并选择更好的时机更低成本再 ...

证券研究报告 宏观专题报告 / 2025.09.28 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 联系人 连桐杉 liants@ctsec.com 相关报告 单击或点击此处输入文字。 基数支撑工业盈利 ❖ 基数是 8 月工业利润大幅增长的主要原因：价格和利润率两个利润的拉 动项中，低基数效应都较为明显。8 月，PPI 翘尾因素由-1.4%回升至-0.7%， PPI 同比增速 0.7 个百分点的回升几乎全部由基数贡献；而利润率方面，2024 年 8 月工业企业利润率逆季节性由 7 月的 5.3%下滑至 5.0%，显著弱于季节 性水平。 ❖ 低基数对工业企业利润增速短期内仍有支撑：一方面，PPI 翘尾因素将 在 9 月进一步提升 0.6 个百分点至-0.1%；另一方面，2024 年 9 月工业企 业利润率仍然是在逆季节性回落。 ❖ "反内卷"和国庆双节的影响在部分行业的经营数据中有所体现：煤 炭开采、黑色冶炼和有色冶炼行业相关指标的改善指向反内卷政策初步见效， 饮料茶酒的改善可能与双节临近带动相关产品需求增加有一定关 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Growth - In August, industrial enterprises' profit growth rebounded to 20.4% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 21.9 percentage points[3] - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year[7] - Revenue growth in August was 1.9% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 1.0 percentage points[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profit and Revenue - The increase in profit growth is primarily attributed to the release of profits from state-owned enterprises, which saw a 56.8 percentage point increase to 50.0% in August[3] - The "anti-involution" effect contributed positively to profit growth in sectors like non-ferrous metallurgy and electrical machinery, adding 3.9 percentage points[3] - Export chains and the "anti-involution" sectors remain crucial supports for overall revenue growth, with upstream manufacturing revenue growth rising by 4.7 percentage points to 5.0%[3] Group 3: Inventory and Operational Pressure - As of the end of August, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of finished goods inventory fell by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%[3] - The average turnover days for finished goods inventory remained stable at 20.5 days, indicating persistent operational pressure on enterprises[3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased by 0.3 days to 70.1 days, reflecting ongoing challenges in cash flow management[3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Future observations on industrial enterprise profitability will focus on the sustainability of revenue growth in the fourth quarter, especially against last year's high base[3] - Potential limitations on volume growth may reduce the space for profit growth driven by price increases through "anti-involution" strategies[3] - External economic volatility and uncertain policy responses pose risks to future economic stability[34]

2025 年 09 月 27 日 宏观研究团队 低基数与反内卷共振修复利润 ——兼评 8 月企业利润数据 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524020002 事件：2025 年 1-8 月全国规上工企利润累计同比 0.9%，前值-1.7%；营业收入累 计同比 2.3%，前值 2.3%。 低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进，工业企业景气度边际回升 1、8 月工企营收小幅改善、利润增速显著转正。测算 8 月营收当月同比约 2.3%、 较前值改善了 1.2 个百分点；利润当月同比则明显回升了 21.9 个百分点至 20.4%， 连续 3 个月边际改善。拆分来看（利润增速=工业增加值*PPI*利润率同比），三 因子对 8 月利润增速的贡献分别为+5.6、-3.2、+17.7 个百分点。价（PPI）的负 贡献见底回升，利（利润率同比）由负贡献大幅转为正贡献。分类型来看，8 月 国企利润改善较快，明显好于私营和股份制工企。 2、低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进，利润率同比回升。8 月工业企业每百元营 收构成中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises above designated size in August showed signs of recovery in revenue and profit, with revenue growth of 1.9% year-on-year and a significant profit increase of 20.4% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential stabilization in the industrial sector [1][7][8]. Revenue and Profit Trends - In August, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking a 1.0 percentage point acceleration from the previous month. Cumulatively, the revenue growth for the first eight months remained at 2.3%, consistent with prior values, ending a four-month slowdown [1][6][7]. - The profit total for August saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 20.4%, a recovery from a decline of 1.5% in the previous month. The cumulative profit growth for the first eight months turned positive at 0.9% [1][8][25]. Price and Volume Dynamics - The improvement in revenue in August was primarily driven by price increases, with a structure characterized by "volume contraction and price increase." The Producer Price Index (PPI) improved from -3.6% to -2.9% year-on-year, supporting profit margins [2][10][11]. - The revenue profit margin for January to August was 5.24%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.06 percentage points, but significantly better than the declines observed in June and July [2][10][11]. Industry Performance Disparities - Profit growth varied significantly across industries, with notable increases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, utilities, essential consumer goods, electrical machinery, and transportation equipment. Conversely, industries like coal, black metal mining, petrochemicals, and light manufacturing experienced the largest profit declines [3][15][16]. - In August, profit growth improvements were concentrated in upstream industries, with coal, steel, and non-metallic minerals showing low-level recoveries. The beverage and tea industry saw a significant rebound in profits due to seasonal demand [3][18]. Inventory and Debt Levels - As of the end of August, nominal inventory for industrial enterprises grew by 2.3% year-on-year, while actual inventory saw a decline of 0.8 percentage points, reflecting a continuous reduction trend [4][19][20]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained stable at 58%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. Capital expenditure showed a small rebound in August, indicating potential growth in investment despite low capacity utilization [4][22]. Future Outlook - The profit growth for industrial enterprises is expected to remain supported in the coming months due to low profit bases from the previous year. If sustained, this could mark the first return to positive profit growth since 2022 [5][25]. - However, the current operational conditions of enterprises are not yet solid, with ongoing uncertainties in price trends and profit structures, necessitating continued policy support to enhance cash flow and profit recovery [5][26].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250922 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Advisory Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: zhangjf@zxqh.net, wangyh@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to recent domestic smelting expansion, rapid accumulation of social inventory, and the zinc ore supply shifting from tight to loose cyclically, if there is no significant demand increase throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage on dips [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the zinc ore market is marginally loosening, with domestic smelting expanding and social inventory accumulating rapidly. The supply - demand balance is moving towards surplus. Meanwhile, the inflection point of aluminum's social inventory is approaching, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on dips [4]. Section Summaries 1. Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Price Review**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most non - ferrous metals on LME and SHFE showed price declines. LME copper dropped from 10067.5 to 9996.5, a decrease of 0.71%; LME zinc fell from 2956 to 2898.5, a decline of 1.95%. SHFE copper decreased from 81060 to 79910, a drop of 1.42%; SHFE zinc went down from 22305 to 22045, a decline of 1.17%. Only SHFE lead had a price increase, rising from 17040 to 17150, an increase of 0.65% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: The unilateral open interest of most non - ferrous metals is at a relatively low level in recent years. The unilateral open interest of aluminum has increased significantly recently. This week, the unilateral open interest of copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin decreased by 8.3%, 14.3%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively, while that of zinc and lead increased by 6.1% and 2.1% respectively. Except for zinc and lead, the main non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. 2. Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, LME copper inventory decreased by 4.09% to 147650; LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.90% to 513900; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5.34% to 47825; LME lead inventory decreased by 4.04% to 220300; LME nickel inventory increased by 1.49% to 228444; LME tin inventory decreased by 4.39% to 2505 [26]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and the smelter suffered a loss of 2426 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly compared to last week. The theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 18320 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2520 yuan/ton. The import processing fee of zinc increased slightly, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was 1040 yuan/ton [44]. 3. Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: On September 19, 2025, the copper basis was 140, with a basis premium rate of 0.18%; the aluminum basis was 45, with a basis premium rate of 0.22%; the zinc basis was - 35, with a basis premium rate of - 0.16%; the lead basis was 110, with a basis premium rate of 0.64%; the nickel basis was 1520, with a basis premium rate of 1.25%; the tin basis was 240, with a basis premium rate of 0.09% [47]. - **Term Structure**: This week, zinc and nickel were in a Contango structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 60, an increase of 240 compared to last week; that of aluminum was 15, an increase of 180; that of zinc was - 5, a decrease of 60; that of lead was 30, a decrease of 10; that of nickel was 230, an increase of 50; that of tin was 340, a decrease of 430 [62]. 4. Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 1.12, 1.09, 1.07, 1.20, 1.12, and 1.10 respectively [79]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of lead and nickel were 851 and 302 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations should be considered for domestic - overseas arbitrage [79]. 5. Cross - variety Ratio Changes - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.84, with a ratio percentile of 83.9% and a spread of 59115; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.62, with a ratio percentile of 99.7% and a spread of 57865; the copper - lead ratio was 4.66, with a ratio percentile of 84.0% and a spread of 62760. The ratios and spreads of other metal combinations also showed different values and percentile positions compared to three months ago and one year ago [96].

Core Viewpoint - Henan Jinli Lead and Zinc Group Co., Ltd. has transformed from a small private factory into one of China's top 500 enterprises over 30 years, focusing on non-ferrous metallurgy and maintaining a commitment to innovation and sustainability [5][26]. Group 1: Company Development - The company was founded in 1995 with an initial investment of 1.62 million yuan by 12 farmers, starting with a copper smelting furnace [6]. - In 2001, the company entered the non-ferrous metallurgy sector, quickly establishing a foothold and generating its first profits [7]. - The company faced significant challenges during the 2008 global financial crisis, leading to a strategic shift from traditional lead smelting to comprehensive recycling [9][10]. - By 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 59.3 billion yuan, marking a 14% year-on-year growth and its best historical performance [11][27]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The company emphasizes technological innovation, having developed its own direct reduction technology for liquid lead slag, significantly reducing energy consumption and emissions [16][18]. - It has obtained 207 national patents, including advancements in multi-metal projects and low-carbon processes [17][18]. - The company has successfully implemented a new high-efficiency pyrometallurgical zinc smelting technology, which reduces energy consumption by approximately 30% and pollutant emissions by over 40% [20]. Group 3: Environmental Responsibility - The company has established a green recycling model, achieving over 98% resource recovery rate from industrial waste [21][24]. - It has made significant investments in environmental protection, including 32.1 million yuan for upgrading pollution control equipment in 2003 [22]. - The company has been recognized as a national green factory and has implemented a comprehensive ESG governance system to enhance resource utilization efficiency [23][24]. Group 4: Social Responsibility - The company has invested over 100 million yuan in rural revitalization and public welfare over 30 years, benefiting local communities [27][31]. - It has created over 10,000 jobs and established a shareholding model that allows local villagers to benefit from the company's growth [30][32]. - The company has set up a special fund for rural revitalization, contributing over 40 million yuan to support local infrastructure and education [31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equities**: Bullish [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bearish [2] - **Silver**: Bullish [1][5] - **Copper**: Bullish [5] - **Aluminum Oxide**: Bearish [5] - **Aluminum**: Bullish [5] - **Nickel**: Bullish [5] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bearish [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Neutral [7] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish [7] - **Rebar**: Bearish [7] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Bearish [7] - **Iron Ore**: Neutral [7] - **Coking Coal**: Neutral [9] - **Coke**: Neutral [9] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish [9] - **Float Glass**: Bearish [9] - **Crude Oil**: Neutral [9] - **Methanol**: Bearish [9] - **Polyolefin**: Bearish [11] - **Cotton**: Neutral [11] - **Rubber**: Bullish [11] Core Views - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, with short - term fluctuations. The bullish position of IF can be held patiently, while the bond market remains cautious [2] - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the previous long positions of silver AG2510 can be held. The production of PP has reached a record high, and new short positions can be entered [1][3] - The prices of precious metals are strong, and the long positions of silver contracts can be held. The copper price is strong due to a weak dollar and tight supply, while the alumina price is under pressure, and the aluminum price is resilient [5] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are loose, and the previous short positions can be held cautiously. The polysilicon market will maintain a weak shock in the short term [7] - The prices of steel products are expected to be weak, and the profit of steelmaking tends to shrink. The short - term iron ore contract maintains a range - bound operation [7] - The actual demand for coking coal and coke is poor, but there are disturbances in production. The supply of soda ash is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the willingness of the glass near - month contract to accept orders is weak [9] - The oil price may rise due to geopolitical factors in the short term, but there is great pressure on the supply side in the medium and long term. The methanol supply pressure increases in September, and the price will further decline [9] - In September, the PE trend is still stronger than PP, and the long L - PP arbitrage can be held. The supply and demand of cotton are expected to be relatively loose, and the price is in a weak shock. The demand for rubber is supported [11] Summary by Category Financial Futures - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, and the previous long positions of IF2509 can be held. The bond market is still cautious [1][2] Commodity Futures Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals are strong. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the long positions of silver AG2510 and silver 10 - contract can be held [1][3][5] Non - Ferrous Metals - The copper price is strong due to a weak dollar and tight supply. The alumina price is under pressure, and the aluminum price is resilient. The Indonesian strike causes concerns about nickel supply, and the nickel price is strong in the short term [5] Energy Metals - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are loose, and the previous short positions can be held cautiously. The polysilicon market will maintain a weak shock in the short term [7] Steel and Ore - The prices of steel products are expected to be weak, and the profit of steelmaking tends to shrink. The short - term iron ore contract maintains a range - bound operation [7] Coal and Coke - The actual demand for coking coal and coke is poor, but there are disturbances in production, and the prices are in a shock [9] Chemicals - The supply of soda ash is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the willingness of the glass near - month contract to accept orders is weak. The oil price may rise due to geopolitical factors in the short term, but there is great pressure on the supply side in the medium and long term. The methanol supply pressure increases in September, and the price will further decline [9] Polyolefins - In September, the PE trend is still stronger than PP, and the long L - PP arbitrage can be held [11] Agricultural Products - The supply and demand of cotton are expected to be relatively loose, and the price is in a weak shock. The demand for rubber is supported [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of Jiyuan into a leading green lead-zinc and silver production base in China, emphasizing its innovative approaches to overcome resource limitations and achieve sustainable development [10][31]. Industry Overview - Jiyuan is recognized as the largest green lead-zinc base and silver production base in China, with lead-zinc output accounting for 13% of the national total and mineral silver output exceeding 40% [9][24]. - The non-ferrous metal industry in Jiyuan has a production value of nearly 200 billion yuan, with three companies listed among China's top 500 manufacturing enterprises [9][24]. Technological Innovation - Jiyuan's non-ferrous industry has adopted advanced smelting technologies, such as the liquid high-lead slag direct reduction process, which has significantly reduced energy consumption and pollution [14][21]. - Companies like Yuguang Group and Jinli Group have pioneered new technologies that enhance metal recovery rates and reduce environmental impact, showcasing the region's commitment to innovation [14][21]. Circular Economy - Jiyuan has established a closed-loop lifecycle for its non-ferrous industry, integrating mining, green smelting, and recycling processes to maximize resource utilization [24][23]. - The city has been recognized as a national-level circular economy pilot, focusing on transforming industrial waste into valuable resources [23][24]. Economic Development Strategy - The local government emphasizes the importance of precise positioning and leveraging comparative advantages to drive high-quality development in traditional industries [10][31]. - Jiyuan's strategy includes enhancing the competitiveness of its industrial clusters and addressing challenges such as high raw material costs and environmental regulations [26][28]. Future Directions - Jiyuan aims to further integrate into the national market and enhance its global competitiveness by fostering innovation and collaboration across the non-ferrous metal industry [30][28]. - The city is focusing on building a comprehensive platform for the non-ferrous industry to streamline resources, technology, and talent, thereby promoting sustainable growth [30][29].

Overall Investment Recommendations - The report provides investment strategies for various commodities and financial products, including stocks, bonds, and multiple futures contracts [1]. Stock Index Futures - The A-share market had a narrow - range oscillation on Tuesday, with the North - Securities 50 reaching a new high. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2.64 trillion yuan but remained above 2 trillion. The comprehensive and communication industries led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, and non - bank financial sectors led the losses [1]. - Stock index futures adjusted following the spot index, with a larger decline in futures than in the spot, and the basis continued to widen. Although there is some resistance to short - term upward movement as the market breaks previous highs, the capital side remains active, and the trading enthusiasm continues to rise. As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, achieving six consecutive increases. Long - term positive factors such as the transfer of household deposits and the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market showed signs of stabilization and a slight rebound, with the T - contract performing weakly. The domestic market had a net capital injection, but due to the tax period, the cost of funds continued to rise. Data was scarce, and the expectation of policy intensification remained optimistic [1]. - Considering the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and the impact of the domestic monetary policy report, the expectation is relatively cautious. The stock - bond seesaw effect is still significant, and the market's risk appetite remains optimistic. The bond market is more sensitive to negative news. Although the bond market's recent decline was rapid, new positive factors are limited, and the upward pressure may continue. A cautious and bearish view is recommended [1]. Commodity Futures Basic Metals - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The domestic economic data is mixed, but policy expectations remain optimistic. Overseas tariffs have weakened, and the market is watching the Fed's stance at the global central bank meeting. The US has expanded the scope of aluminum tariff increases, which has a limited impact on domestic exports. Alumina's over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the market's bullish sentiment has weakened significantly, with continuous upward pressure on prices. For Shanghai aluminum, the short - term demand expectation is weak, but the medium - term support is clear [3]. - **Copper**: The domestic economic data is mixed, but policy expectations are optimistic. Overseas tariffs have weakened, and the market is focused on the Fed's attitude. The smelting processing fee is slowly rebounding but remains negative, and the global copper - mine supply shortage persists. Although domestic and overseas refined copper production continues to grow, and there are positive expectations for consumption, the short - term upward momentum is limited, and the price will continue to oscillate. However, in the medium - term, the upward trend is unchanged [3]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is sufficient, and port inventories are accumulating. Although Indonesia is cracking down on illegal mining, the ore price is still supported. The production capacity at the smelting end is abundant, and the trading is dull. Refined nickel production remains high, and the inventory - accumulation trend continues. As the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cools, the nickel price has low volatility, with resistance from over - supply and support from potential ore - supply issues. Selling call options is a relatively favorable strategy [3][4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led some funds to take a wait - and - see attitude towards the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The API weekly data showed a decline in US crude - oil inventories, but the market reaction was muted. As the peak consumption season for the crude - oil market is ending, the expectation of supply over - capacity is strengthening, and the short - term positive factors are lacking. The oil price will continue to be weak [5]. - **Methanol**: This week, the signing volume of northwest sample enterprises reached the lowest level since May, and the futures price dropped rapidly, reducing the downstream's purchasing willingness. Although there are many new maintenance devices, and the factory operating rate is low, providing support for the spot price, as the negative impact of increased arrivals is gradually released, the further decline space for futures is limited [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Recently, there have been more new maintenance devices for PE, and its operating rate is at a medium level, while PP's maintenance devices have restarted, and its operating rate has returned to a high level. Considering production and new capacity, PE's supply pressure is lower than PP's, and PE's demand is also better. It is recommended to hold a long position in the L - PP spread [7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, the anti - involution policy has no clear signal, and the policy - intensity expectation is decreasing. The over - supply situation is obvious, with daily production slightly decreasing to 11.07 million tons, and the far - reaching energy's second - phase device may be put into operation in September, intensifying the over - supply. It is recommended to short the 01 contract. For float glass, real - estate sales and completion are weak, and although the sales - to - production ratio in some regions has increased, without effective supply - side constraints, the fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [5]. - **Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, after the coal - mine production self - inspection, the raw - coal output is still low, and the inventory - reduction rate has slowed down. The environmental protection restrictions on steel and coking enterprises have restricted demand, and the coal price is under pressure. For coke, some coking enterprises have received production - restriction notices, and steel mills in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region also have production - reduction expectations. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the price will oscillate and decline [5]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Domestically, there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the market's expectation for the new - cotton purchase price is pessimistic. Overseas, the USDA August report adjusted the supply and demand for the 2025/2026 season, and the ending inventory decreased. The inventory of imported cotton in major ports has decreased, and the downstream industry has slightly improved. The market is watching whether the downstream will continue to improve during the traditional peak season [7]. - **Rubber**: The automotive market benefits from policy support, and tire - enterprise operating rates are good. Although the ANRPC has entered the traditional production - increasing season, the new - rubber output rate is lower than expected, and the raw - material price in the production area is firm. The supply - demand structure of natural rubber is gradually improving, and the port inventory is decreasing, providing support for the rubber price [7]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The anti - involution policy has no clear implementation signal, and the policy - intensity expectation is decreasing. The fundamentals of rebar are showing more signs of weakening. Regional and phased production restrictions have limited impact on supply, and the crude - steel reduction policy has not been implemented. Steel mills' profits are acceptable, and production is expected to resume after the military - parade production restrictions end. Real - estate data is weak across the board, and the inventory of rebar has started to accumulate rapidly. It is recommended to hold a short position in the 01 contract and pay attention to the support at around 3100 [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the anti - involution policy has no clear signal, and the fundamentals of steel products are weakening. The military - parade production restrictions in the north mainly affected sintering and rolling processes, and the actual implementation depends on weather conditions. Steel mills' profits are good, and production is likely to resume after the restrictions end. The high coil - to - rebar spread may prompt the transfer of molten iron from rebar to hot - rolled coil. Although the current demand for plates is more resilient than that for construction steel, the inventory - accumulation rate of plates has also accelerated. The downward pressure on the hot - rolled coil price is increasing, and the near - term contract is weaker than the far - term one [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The military - parade production restrictions mainly affected sintering and rolling, and the actual implementation depends on weather conditions. Steel mills' profits are good, and production is expected to resume after the restrictions end. However, the weakening of the steel fundamentals may put pressure on the iron - ore price. It is expected that the iron - ore price will follow the steel price, with the 01 - contract price ranging from 750 to 810. It is recommended to short at high prices within this range [4][5].