Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector, with most sectors expected to experience fluctuating trends in the short - term [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices showed mixed trends with reduced trading volume. The pro - cyclical sectors supported the market, while TMT sectors declined. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spreads fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and consider bearish option bull spreads in case of a significant decline [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly rose. The bond market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term, and a range - bound operation strategy is recommended [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The Fed's October meeting minutes dampened the expectation of a December interest - rate cut, and the risk of Japanese government bond sales affected the precious metals market. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. In the long - term, precious metals may enter a bull market, but in the short - term, market volatility may increase. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider a double - selling strategy for gold out - of - the - money options [7][9] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined. The futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term [12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and copper prices are fluctuating. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the downstream demand has strong resilience. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the range of 85500 - 87500 [13][15][17] - **Alumina**: The alumina market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of high - cost enterprises [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are adjusting downward after a previous rise. The market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up changes and inventory reduction [20][22] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy market follows the adjustment of aluminum prices. The cost is strongly supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The short - term price is expected to be relatively strong [23][24] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is expected to decrease, and the spot trading has improved. The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate, and the export of zinc may boost the domestic price [25][27][28] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is tight, and the guidance of NVIDIA's quarterly report exceeded expectations, so the tin price is running strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [28][29][32] - **Nickel**: The nickel market is under macro - pressure, and the fundamental improvement is insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile [32][33][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market has weak policy and macro - drive, and the supply - demand structure has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile [35][37][38] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is driven by strong capital sentiment, and the price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there may be high - volatility intraday market conditions later [39][41][42] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation. The futures price is rising, and it is recommended to pay attention to the spot price support [43][44] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market has a pattern of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The futures price is rising, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices or use hedging strategies [44][47] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market has a low demand expectation, and the difference between hot - rolled and rebar spreads is expanding. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is not recommended to go long [47][48][50] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is fluctuating. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be in a high - level fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market is showing a weak decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand for restocking is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [56][60] - **Coke**: The coke market continues to decline. The fourth - round price increase has been fully implemented, but the supply and demand are under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [61][66][67] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the cost side lacks substantial benefits. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to pay attention to the dynamics of state - reserved soybeans [68][70]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 | 股指期货：下跌初显支撑 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：风偏回落，债市偏暖 4 | 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 18 日 0 / 44 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：需求表现良好 | 美豆继续偏强运行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国内陆续开榨 | 郑糖价格区间震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂分化明显，震荡行情延续 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货继续上涨，盘面偏强震荡 7 | | | 生猪：供应整体稳定 | 现货小幅震荡 8 | | 花生：花生现货偏强，花生短期仍底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 10 | | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 | 棉价震荡为主 12 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦：市场情绪走弱，部分煤种高位回调 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需双弱，成本支撑区间震荡 15 | | 贵金属：降息预期持续回调 贵金属承压 16 | | --- | | 铜：短期震荡 ...

CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI turned positive at 0.2% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, marking a 9-month high[2] - The core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, continuing its upward trend for the sixth consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[2] - Food prices fell by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 2.4%[5] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points for the third consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[3] - Key drivers for the PPI's month-on-month increase include the "anti-involution" trend, rising prices in the non-ferrous sector, and increased demand for general consumer goods[3] - The PPI for production materials rose by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI for living materials remained flat[6] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to see a mild recovery in November and December, with an annual average around 0%[4] - The PPI is projected to fluctuate at low levels, with an annual average around -2.7%[4] - The performance of six major commodities (crude oil, coal, rebar, copper, lithium carbonate, and pork) will significantly influence future PPI readings[4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - From an economic data perspective, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter declined as expected, but the pressure to achieve the annual target is controllable. The GDP deflator is showing a recovery trend, and its sustainability is worth attention. In September, the economy showed a structural differentiation feature of strong production and weak domestic demand, with both consumption and investment growth rates being weak, highlighting the necessity of policy support. Currently, fiscal policy has clearly taken effect, and the subsequent rhythm of domestic demand repair is crucial. After the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the stock market responded positively. Combining historical patterns, the stock index may perform [1]. - Affected by the end of the China - US negotiations, the results of the China - US summit may fall short of market expectations. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB quickly rose around 1 o'clock. At the same time, the Bank of Japan's interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate unchanged as expected, and the weakening of the yen pushed the US dollar index relatively stronger, further dragging down the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate. In the future, attention should be paid to the US employment and inflation situation under the background of the government shutdown, as well as the enterprise's willingness to settle foreign exchange [2]. - The Fed's October interest - rate decision was implemented, with a 25bp cut as expected and the end of balance - sheet reduction in December announced. However, Powell's subsequent speech was hawkish, saying that a December interest - rate cut was not a certainty, which cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. The market repriced the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut path. Affected by this, the A - share market was under pressure yesterday, and the stock index opened lower and closed down. However, it is believed that the market will quickly digest the change in the interest - rate cut expectation in the short term, and the stock index is expected to strengthen again after fully digesting the interest - rate cut expectation difference [5]. - The container shipping index (European line) futures are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term. The policy benefits from China and the US and the weakness of the spot market are in a tug - of - war, and the game in the range of 1800 - 1900 points intensifies [10]. - Although in the medium - to - long - term dimension, central bank gold purchases and the growth of investment demand (monetary easing prospects and periodic safe - haven trading) will still push up the price center of precious metals, in the short term, it has entered an adjustment stage. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to make up for long positions at a low level in the medium term, and the previous long - position bottom positions should continue to be held cautiously [14]. - After the release of the Fed's interest - rate decision, the copper market experienced a decline in both volume and price. At this time, the spot premium showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, but the increase was limited. It is believed that in the short term, both the long and short factors at the macro level have been digested. If the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price will still maintain a high - level shock [16]. - For aluminum, the domestic fundamentals remain stable, and there are disturbances on the overseas supply side. Overall, after the tariff negotiation, the night - session price of Shanghai aluminum rose, but with the successive implementation of macro events, the market is temporarily in a news vacuum, waiting for the next driver, and Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level shock in the short term. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation, and it is mainly bearish before large - scale production cuts occur, but the downward space is limited at the current price. For cast aluminum alloy, it has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum [18][19]. - For zinc, the interest - rate cut expectation has weakened. Fundamentally, the phenomenon of smelters competing for mines is serious, and the willingness of smelters to reduce or stop production in November has increased. Assuming stable demand, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. It is expected to be relatively strong and volatile in November [20]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the intraday trading continued to be volatile, and the current long - short game sentiment is relatively strong. The macro - level Fed interest - rate cut and the friendly talks between China and the US in Busan have brought major policy benefits, but the downward shift of the cost support at the fundamental level still suppresses the upward space [21]. - For tin, the uncertainty of the interest - rate cut has increased, and it is weakly volatile. Technically, the pressure level of 290,000 is relatively stable. Fundamentally, the supply is weaker than the demand. In the short term, it is still bullish, and the support is predicted to be around 276,000 [22]. - For lead, it is in a narrow - range shock. The long - term trend is bullish, and the medium - to - short - term wave - like upward trend is stable. High - selling and low - buying strategies can be adopted [22]. - For steel, the price is expected to rebound slightly. Although there is no substantial improvement in the downstream consumption end, there is an expectation of crude steel production reduction, and the steel price will maintain a shock in the future [23]. - For iron ore, the current market presents a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price is under obvious pressure. In the context of abundant supply, high inventory, and limited demand boost, if steel mills do not achieve large - scale and substantial production cuts, the industrial chain contradictions are difficult to ease, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure after the macro events are implemented [24]. - For coking coal and coke, recently, downstream coking plants and steel mills have concentrated on replenishing their inventories, and the coking coal inventory structure has improved. The third round of price increases has started, and the coke price may be relatively strong in the short term. If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter, and the winter - storage demand is released in mid - to - late November, the overall valuation center of the black market is expected to move up [26][27]. - For ferroalloys, they are supported by the coking coal price, but the fundamentals are not strong enough to support the upward movement, and the upward space is limited [28]. - For crude oil, the price is under pressure. In the short term, the API data shows a significant reduction in US crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the China - US summit may boost sentiment, so the oil price may fluctuate. But in the medium - to - long - term, the pressure of oversupply is difficult to change, and it is still likely to decline after a rebound [32]. - For LPG, after the China - US summit, the domestic and foreign prices have fallen, and the previous excessive expectations have been slightly revised, but the phased easing of China - US relations is still beneficial. Fundamentally, the port inventory has increased this week, and the chemical demand remains stable. The domestic LPG market still shows a relatively strong shock pattern [34]. - For PTA - PX, the macro - optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and the price has declined slightly. In the short term, it is mainly a short - term strong shock driven by sentiment, and the PTA processing fee has expanded. In the long - term, the industrial - structure contradictions are difficult to solve before the implementation of actual production - reduction actions, and the PTA processing fee is still under pressure from supply and demand [37]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the fundamental supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has improved marginally, but the valuation is still under pressure. In the short term, it is expected to follow the macro - sentiment and fluctuate widely, and the operation idea of shorting at high levels remains unchanged [38]. - For methanol, from the perspective of its own fundamentals, the 01 contract is not optimistic. It is recommended to reduce the short - put position of the 01 contract and sell the 01 call option at the same time [39]. - For PP, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues to put pressure on it, resulting in a low - level shock situation. Due to the limited new drivers at present, the shock pattern is expected to continue [41]. - For PE, the weak supply - demand pattern continues. It is in a deadlock of strong supply and weak demand. Affected significantly by cost factors such as crude oil, it generally maintains a wide - range shock pattern [44]. - For pure benzene and styrene, after the rise, the price has fallen. Pure benzene is expected to be weak, and for styrene, the de - stocking pressure is large. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider shorting the processing spread at a high level between varieties after the macro situation is clear [46]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur fuel oil is in a pattern of strong expectation and weak reality, and it is not advisable to be overly optimistic about the later cracking. Attention can be paid to the opportunity to expand the spread between LU and FU recently. The low - sulfur fuel oil has a low valuation and there is an expectation of repair, and attention can also be paid to the opportunity to expand the spread between LU and FU [46][47]. - For asphalt, the short - term peak season has no super - expected performance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term or try to short after the futures price reaches the pressure level [49]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, for soda ash, without production reduction, the valuation has no upward elasticity, and the upper - and - middle - stream inventory remains high, limiting the price, but there is cost support below. For glass, the spot sales have improved slightly after the price cut, and the game may continue until near the delivery. For caustic soda, the production is gradually recovering, the market pressure is increasing, and the high profit restricts the price increase [49][50][51][52]. - For pulp and offset paper, the pulp price is restricted by the relatively high port inventory, and it still needs to wait for the traditional peak season to provide support in the short term. For offset paper, the futures price shows a slightly upward shock trend, and attention can be paid to the de - stocking situation [53]. - For logs, the market is in a low - volatility state without obvious drivers, and it is expected to continue. It is recommended to sell the 750 put option of the 01 contract, and the grid strategy can be re - configured [55]. - For propylene, the crude oil end is oscillating at the 65 mark, and the cost end is relatively strong. But the overall supply situation of propylene remains loose, the spot market continues to weaken, and the peak season of PP terminal demand is not prosperous [56]. - For live pigs, the position game intensifies, and the futures price has declined [58]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes the China - US economic and trade teams reaching three - aspect achievement consensuses, possible selection of the Fed chairman candidate before Christmas, the European Central Bank maintaining the deposit rate at 2%, and the Bank of Japan maintaining the interest rate unchanged [1]. - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter declined as expected, and the GDP deflator is showing a recovery trend. In September, the economy had a structural differentiation of strong production and weak domestic demand. Fiscal policy has taken effect, and the subsequent rhythm of domestic demand repair is crucial. The stock market responded positively after the plenary - session communiqué, and the stock index may perform. The China - US economic and trade negotiation results are beneficial to export enterprises in the long - term. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's hawkish speech have affected the market's interest - rate cut expectation [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the central parity rate was depreciated. Affected by the China - US negotiation and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision, the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate was under pressure. In the future, attention should be paid to the US employment and inflation situation and the enterprise's willingness to settle foreign exchange. There is a certain appreciation power for the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate with the seasonal effect [2]. - Short - term strategy suggestions: export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at around 7.13, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy at the 7.09 mark [3]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, the stock index closed down collectively, and the trading volume in the two markets increased. The Fed's interest - rate decision and Powell's speech affected the A - share market. Although the stock index fell, it is expected to strengthen again after digesting the interest - rate cut expectation difference in the short term [4][5]. Treasury Bond - The previous trading day, T and TL closed up in a shock, TF was flat, and TS fell slightly. The capital supply became looser. The China - US negotiation results are beneficial to risk assets, and the short - term upward space of treasury bonds may be limited [6]. Container Shipping (European Line) - The previous trading day, the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures rose first and then fell, and the far - month contracts showed differentiation. The market has both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the phased easing of China - US trade friction, geopolitical risks supporting freight rates, and the basis for price support in the peak season. The negative factors include the discount on spot price increases, long - term over - capacity pressure, and insufficient European economic resilience [7][9]. - The short - term is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and the game in the 1800 - 1900 point range intensifies. Trend traders can wait and see, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10]. Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - The previous trading day, precious metals prices rebounded significantly, affected by the China - US summit and the news about the Fed chairman candidate. The interest - rate cut expectation has slightly recovered. The long - term fund positions and inventory have changed. In the short term, it has entered an adjustment stage, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to make up for long positions at a low level in the medium term [12][13]. Copper - The previous trading day, copper prices in different markets fell. The LME plans to formulate permanent rules to restrict members with large positions in near - month contracts. In the short term, if the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price will maintain a high - level shock. Corresponding trading strategies are provided for different market participants [14][16]. Aluminum Industry Chain - For aluminum, after the China - US summit, relevant export control measures were suspended. The domestic fundamentals are stable, and there are overseas supply disturbances. It will maintain a high - level shock in the short term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation, and it is mainly bearish before large - scale production cuts, but the downward space is limited at the current price. For cast aluminum alloy, it has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and attention can be paid to the price difference [18][19]. Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc prices opened low and fluctuated due to the weakening of the interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamentally, the smelters' willingness to reduce or stop production in November has increased. Assuming stable demand, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. It is expected to be relatively strong and volatile in November [20]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The previous trading day, the prices of nickel and stainless steel futures fell slightly. The intraday trading continued to be volatile, with strong long - short game sentiment. The macro - level has policy benefits, but the cost support at the fundamental level is weakening. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is general [20][21]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin prices were weakly volatile, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamentally, the supply is weaker than the demand. In the short term, it is still bullish, and the support is predicted to be around 276,000 [22]. Lead - The previous trading day, lead prices were in a narrow - range shock. The supply is tight in the short term, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. It is expected to be in a narrow - range shock around 17,200 - 17,500 in the short term, and the low inventory supports the price [22]. Black Metals Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, due to the China - US summit, the prices of finished steel products rose first and then fell. Affected by coal mine safety inspections and Mongolian political disturbances, coking coal prices rose rapidly, driving finished steel products to rebound slightly, but the upward momentum was weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products this week are neutral, and the production of rebar and hot - rolled coil has different changes. It is expected that the steel price will rebound slightly due to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [23]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore rose first and then fell. The current market has a pattern of loose supply and demand, with high global shipments, rapid accumulation of port inventory, and limited reduction in iron - water production. The terminal demand is differentiated, and the macro - policy has limited support for iron ore demand. It is expected to continue to be under pressure [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, they were in a high - level shock. The downstream has concentrated on replenishing inventories, and the coking coal inventory structure has improved. The third round of price increases has started, and the coke price may be relatively strong in the short term. If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter, the overall valuation center of the black market is expected to move

Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities highlights rising concerns over high asset risks as commodity prices, such as copper, reach historical highs, while attention shifts to underperforming assets like crude oil, coal, and electrolytic aluminum [1] - It is expected that the copper-aluminum ratio returning to anticipated levels will support aluminum prices at high levels, with seasonal demand and policy disruptions influencing the market [1] - The report forecasts that by Q4 2025, thermal coal prices may continue to recover, while coking coal prices are expected to decline due to weakening demand [1] Group 2 - In terms of copper and cobalt, supply disruptions in September have pushed copper prices to historical highs, while reduced export quotas for cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo have driven cobalt prices upward [1] - The supply-side disruptions are anticipated to remain a key factor influencing commodity prices through Q4 2025, with expectations for continued price increases for copper and cobalt [1] - The demand for lithium is expected to rise significantly due to a surge in energy storage battery shipments, transitioning the industry from oversupply to a phase of temporary shortage, with prices likely to continue rising into Q4 2025 [1] Group 3 - Silicon products, which saw significant price increases in Q3 due to expectations of anti-involution policies, are also projected to experience slight price increases in Q4 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short positions in synthetic rubber, alumina, etc.; oscillating short - biased positions in liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, etc.; oscillating positions in Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures, apple, etc.; oscillating long - biased positions in some products; and trend long positions in none. Based on quantitative indicators, there are short - biased positions in sugar, hot - rolled coils, etc.; oscillating positions in Shanghai silver, palm oil, etc.; and long - biased positions in rebar, asphalt, etc. [2] - For the stock market, A - shares showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to develop strategic emerging industries, and the easing of Sino - US relations may boost risk appetite. The market expects an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. [8] - For the bond market, as the implementation of increased monetary policy is approaching, bonds still have upward momentum. [9] - For the black market, steel and ore may continue to rebound in the short term but with limited space, and remain oscillating in the medium term; coking coal and coke may run strongly in the short term but are restricted by potential negative feedback risks; ferroalloys are still recommended to be short - biased on rallies in the medium term. [10][11][12] - For the non - ferrous and new materials market, it is advisable to wait and see for aluminum, short on rallies for alumina, hold short positions for zinc, and expect lithium carbonate to run strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will run in a narrow range. [16][18][19] - For the agricultural products market, it is advisable to short on rallies for cotton, short - roll or wait and see for sugar, operate in an oscillating manner for eggs, expect apples to run strongly, be short - biased for near - term corn contracts and long - biased for far - term contracts, wait and see for jujubes, and short near - term contracts for live pigs. [22][24][25][27][29][30] - For the energy and chemical market, crude oil is likely to fall, fuel oil and asphalt will follow oil prices, plastics will run weakly, rubber will oscillate, methanol is recommended to be long - biased in small amounts after a rebound drive appears, caustic soda will be treated with an oscillating mindset, the polyester industry chain can be short - term long - biased, LPG may weaken relative to crude oil, paper pulp can be long - biased on dips, logs will be under pressure, urea will run weakly, and synthetic rubber will be short - biased in the short term. [32][33][34][37][41][43] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal is released, aiming for economic growth in a reasonable range, promoting the development of strategic emerging industries, and breaking through key core technologies. China and ASEAN sign the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths. China will expand financial opening - up. The US Senate fails to pass a bill to end the government shutdown. Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US. ADP will launch weekly employment data. The Bank of Korea may buy gold. [4][5][6] Stock Index Futures - A - shares rise and then fall. The "15th Five - Year Plan" promotes the development of emerging industries. Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite. The market expects an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. [8] Treasury Bond Futures - After the tax period, the capital market eases. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Bonds still have upward momentum. [9] Steel and Ore - Policy is favorable to market sentiment. In the short term, pay attention to Sino - US relations; in the medium term, focus on the Central Political Bureau Meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is okay. Iron - making output remains high, and steel mills' profits are low. Steel prices may rebound in the short term but with limited space and remain oscillating in the medium term. [10] Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may run strongly in the short term, but are affected by mine inspections and downstream iron - making output. Supply may shrink in the short term, and demand supports prices, but potential negative feedback risks from weakening steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits will restrict the rebound height. [11] Ferroalloys - The over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the medium term. It is recommended to be short - biased on rallies. The volatility is low, and it may run in a narrow range. [12] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash oscillates, and glass is relatively strong. It is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply returns to a high level, and new capacity is yet to be put into production. Glass prices are stable, and mid - stream inventory needs to be digested. [14] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - For aluminum, it is advisable to wait and see as it may follow the upward trend. For alumina, short on rallies due to over - supply. For zinc, hold short positions as domestic inventory increases. Lithium carbonate will run strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will run in a narrow range. [16][18][19] Agricultural Products - For cotton, short on rallies due to increasing supply and weak demand. For sugar, short - roll or wait and see because of global over - supply. For eggs, operate in an oscillating manner as the "de - capacity" process starts but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Apples will run strongly. For corn, be short - biased for near - term contracts and long - biased for far - term contracts. Wait and see for jujubes. For live pigs, short near - term contracts as supply and demand are in a stalemate. [22][24][25][27][29][30] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is likely to fall due to over - supply. Fuel oil and asphalt will follow oil prices. Plastics will run weakly. Rubber will oscillate. Methanol is recommended to be long - biased in small amounts after a rebound drive appears. Caustic soda will be treated with an oscillating mindset. The polyester industry chain can be short - term long - biased. LPG may weaken relative to crude oil. Paper pulp can be long - biased on dips. Logs will be under pressure. Urea will run weakly. Synthetic rubber will be short - biased in the short term. [32][33][34][37][41][43]

Group 1 - The company is a non-ferrous metallurgy enterprise primarily producing zinc, copper, and lead, with by-products including sulfuric acid, gold, silver, and indium [2] - Currently, the company does not own any mining operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. (000751.SZ) is primarily engaged in non-ferrous metallurgy, focusing on the production of zinc, copper, and lead, along with by-products such as sulfuric acid, gold, silver, and indium, with no ownership of mining assets [1] Company Overview - The company operates as a non-ferrous metallurgy enterprise [1] - Main products include zinc, copper, and lead [1] - By-products consist of sulfuric acid, gold, silver, and indium [1] - Currently, the company does not own any mining assets [1]

Group 1 - The company is primarily engaged in non-ferrous metal smelting, with main products including zinc, copper, and lead, and by-products such as sulfuric acid, gold, silver, and indium [2] - The company does not own any mining operations [2] - The company has plans for future developments, although specific details were not provided in the response [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - **Stock Index**: With important meetings approaching, market policy expectations are rising. Coupled with the Fed still having room to cut interest rates this year, it will support the market. However, the KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds have declined. Overseas credit risks have led to a decline in risk appetite, and global bonds have temporarily improved. It is advisable to take partial profit during the risk - impact window. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of the month will be the key factor for future market risk appetite. If there is significant volatility in the next two weeks, appropriate band operations can be carried out according to positions. The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may adjust [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - **Strategy Outlook**: The stock index is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Stock Index Trend Review**: Last week, the weekly gains of all A - share broad - based indexes were negative, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indexes having the largest declines. Coal and banks performed well [10]. - **Core View**: High - level Sino - US exchanges and the upcoming important domestic meetings, along with the release of macro - economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, will support the market [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [10]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - **Treasury Bond Trend Review**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.74%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.01% respectively [11]. - **Core View**: Yields of interest - rate and credit bonds declined. Overseas credit risks affected the market, but the panic may be excessive. It is advisable to take partial profit, and the Sino - US negotiation is a key factor [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may adjust [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The bond market is expected to move in a volatile manner [11]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. The improvement in supply and demand and the replenishment of raw material inventories supported the rebound, while the supplier delivery time and employment indexes slightly dragged it down. The improvement in domestic and foreign demand may be due to non - US capital goods orders, US Christmas - season restocking, and the downstream's more active raw material procurement after the upstream price increase [18]. 3.2.2 CPI - In September, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.3%, and the month - on - month was + 0.1%. The year - on - year PPI was - 2.3%, and the month - on - month was flat. The improvement in August's PPI was due to the base effect and the "anti - involution" policy. The year - on - year CPI was still negative, the year - on - year increase in core CPI expanded, gold jewelry and services were the main support for the year - on - year CPI, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed [21]. 3.2.3 Import and Export - In September, China's exports were $328.57 billion, imports were $238.12 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.45 billion. The sharp rebound in export growth in September was mainly due to the base effect and seasonal factors. The two - year average growth rate continued to decline, and the month - on - month growth rate was weaker than the average from 2018 - 2023, indicating that the export performance was not that strong [22][23]. 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, both the profit growth rate and revenue growth rate rebounded. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits quickly rebounded to 20.4%, with a marginal increase of 21.9%. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise revenue in August was 1.9%, with a marginal increase of 1.0%. The improvement in profit was contributed by quantity, price, and profit margin, with the profit - margin improvement being the most obvious, possibly related to investment income recognition [27]. - Structurally, the rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state - owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. In terms of revenue, the year - on - year growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries rebounded, while that of mid - and downstream industries declined, mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [30]. - At the end of August, the nominal year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise finished - product inventories declined to 2.3%, and the real inventory year - on - year growth rate declined to 5.4%. The real inventory depletion was faster under the influence of PPI convergence, mainly due to downstream advance procurement. The inventory turnover days remained unchanged at 20.5 days, and the accounts - receivable turnover days increased by 0.3 days to 70.1 days, indicating high business pressure [33]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In August, the production intensity declined, and the downstream production slowdown was obvious. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined to 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service production index declined to 5.6%. Among the mid - level industries, the year - on - year growth rate of industries such as computer communication electronics, electrical machinery, and metal products declined significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative to - 0.4% for the first time since 2024, confirming the differentiation of mid - level production data [36]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - In August, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline. The estimated single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined to - 6.3%, and that of private investment declined to - 7.1%. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate investment all declined. The estimated year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment declined to - 1.3%, that of new and old - caliber infrastructure investment declined to - 5.9% and - 6.4% respectively, and that of real - estate investment declined to - 19.5% [39]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales declined to 3.4%, and that of above - quota retail sales declined to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable - goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption. The national subsidy funds in the third quarter were 69 billion yuan, slightly lower than the 81 billion yuan per quarter in the first half of the year. The year - on - year performance of the three major national subsidy categories weakened significantly compared with June, and the year - on - year growth rate of optional consumption declined to - 0.1%. The three major national subsidy categories still contributed about 40% to the growth of social retail sales, indicating slow growth in other consumption categories [42]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In September, the new social financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock declined to 8.7%, remained flat at 5.9% after excluding government bonds, and the credit growth rate in the social financing caliber declined to 6.4%. The year - on - year decrease in social financing was mainly dragged down by government bonds and credit. The year - on - year growth of long - term household loans turned positive, but that of long - term corporate loans still decreased. The M1 growth rate continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth of non - bank deposits turned negative [45].