投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 反弹不改震荡格局，继续逢低布局 朝闻道 20251126 市场策略 反弹不改震荡格局，继续逢低布局 风格策略 科技成长且战且退，中盘蓝筹先手布局 风险提示 消费复苏不及预期、供给侧减量政策落地不及预期、货币政策超预期收紧、地产逆周期政策不及预期、军 品订单和收入确认不及预期。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 26 日 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 行业策略 房地产：政策预期再起 主题策略 国防军工：我国装备建设或将提速，关注新质战斗力 防守策略生效，布局窗口将现：朝闻道 20251124 2025-11-23 震荡依旧，逢低布局：朝闻道 20251121 2025-11-20 震荡整固看风格，中盘蓝筹谋先机：朝闻 道 20251119 2025-11-18 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 近期市场企稳反弹，符合我们上期"布局窗口将现"的预判，但市场并未出现量价 ...

Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points, more than the new orders index which dropped by 0.9 percentage points, highlighting greater supply-side constraints[15] - High inventory levels and a reduction in working days (only 18 days in October, down 3 days year-on-year) are contributing to production constraints[3] Profitability and Cost Pressures - In September, industrial profits rose by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5% year-on-year, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9%[4] - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.4%, with a marginal decline in profit contribution from costs, indicating ongoing cost pressures[4][29] Policy Measures and Economic Support - The government has initiated new policy financial tools amounting to nearly 300 billion yuan to support debt resolution and investment, with a focus on digital economy and infrastructure[5] - A total of 5 trillion yuan has been allocated to local governments to support debt resolution and project construction, which may alleviate investment pressures[5][34] Consumer Behavior and Retail Trends - Anticipated "Double Eleven" promotions are expected to temporarily boost retail sales, with a projected rebound of 3.4% in October retail sales[5] - Service consumption showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% during the holiday period, outperforming goods consumption which grew by 3.6%[5] Export Performance - October exports are expected to maintain resilience at 7% year-on-year, supported by a surge in foreign trade cargo volume, which increased by 18% in the last week of October[6][45] - The U.S. threat of imposing 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods has led to a "rush to export," further bolstering export figures[6] Inflation Indicators - The CPI is expected to recover to above 0% in October, driven by low base effects and resilient service consumption[7][61] - The PPI is projected to rise to around -2.1%, influenced by rising prices in upstream commodities like copper and coal, despite ongoing overcapacity in downstream sectors[7][57] Economic Growth Outlook - The actual GDP growth for October is estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth despite supply-side constraints and demand-side risks[8][72] - The nominal GDP growth is projected at 3.3%, reflecting the overall economic performance amidst various pressures[8][73]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in fixed asset investment in China since the second half of 2025, highlighting a broad downturn across various sectors including infrastructure, services, real estate, and manufacturing [1][10][19]. Investment Growth Decline - Fixed asset investment growth has dropped sharply by 9.1 percentage points to -6.5% in September 2025, marking a five-year low. The actual investment growth, excluding price disturbances, fell by 7.8 percentage points to -4.1% [1][10]. - Investment in broad infrastructure, services, real estate, and manufacturing has all seen declines, with respective drops of 13.1, 11.1, 9.3, and 9.1 percentage points [1][10][19]. - Specific sectors like major projects, consumer infrastructure, and manufacturing have also experienced notable declines, with infrastructure investments in IT services, public utilities, and facility management dropping around 20 percentage points [1][12]. Reasons for Investment Slowdown - The primary reason for the investment slowdown is the acceleration of debt resolution, which has occupied investment funds, explaining over half of the investment decline. The Ministry of Finance allocated 800 billion for special refinancing bonds, with issuance rising to 1.2 trillion since June, reducing available government investment funds [2][29]. - Companies have been increasing investments through debt, but the current push for debt repayment has led to a reduction in available funds for new investments. This has particularly affected state-owned enterprises, which are under pressure to clear debts more quickly [3][40]. - A lack of new projects has also contributed to the investment decline, with new and expansion projects seeing significant drops in growth rates, while renovation projects maintain a higher growth rate [4][44]. Policy Optimization Impact - Historical data suggests that debt issues can significantly constrain corporate cash flow and economic performance. The proportion of accounts receivable has risen to around 15%, with private enterprises having the highest share [5][53]. - The ongoing debt resolution process may improve corporate cash flow, potentially restoring economic momentum. Recent data shows a decline in accounts receivable growth for both private and state-owned enterprises, which could alleviate the "triangle debt" issue [5][60]. - Recent fiscal measures have introduced new funding aimed at addressing the investment decline, particularly in economically significant provinces. The central government has allocated 500 billion for local debt resolution and project construction, which may help mitigate the investment downturn [6][66].

Core Insights - In September, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 21.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to August, marking two consecutive months of growth exceeding 20% [1] - From January to September, profits grew by 3.2% year-on-year, the highest cumulative growth rate since August of the previous year, and accelerated by 2.3 percentage points compared to the first eight months of the year [1] - The recovery in industrial profits is primarily driven by low base effects, unexpected production increases, and price recoveries [1][3] Profit Growth Analysis - In the first nine months, 23 out of 41 major industrial sectors saw profit growth, with 30 sectors experiencing growth in September, representing a growth rate of 73.2% [2] - The recovery is characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price, improved profit margins, and proactive inventory replenishment [2] - Profit distribution has shifted towards upstream industries, with significant recovery in raw materials and equipment manufacturing, while downstream consumer manufacturing has seen a slowdown in profit growth [2] Company Size and Type Performance - Profits improved across all enterprise sizes, with private and foreign-invested enterprises showing notable acceleration [2] - Large, medium, and small enterprises saw year-on-year profit growth of 2.5%, 5.3%, and 2.7% respectively, with improvements of 2.6, 2.6, and 1.2 percentage points compared to the first eight months [2] - Private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises reported profit growth of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, with increases of 1.8 and 4.0 percentage points compared to the previous period [2] Profit Margin and Revenue Trends - In September, the profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.46%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the revenue profit margin for the first nine months was 5.26%, up by 0.02 percentage points compared to the first eight months [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year increase from -2.9% to -2.3%, indicating a stabilization after previous declines [3] - The industrial added value growth rate rose to 6.5% in September, up from 5.2% in August, reflecting accelerated production activities [3] Future Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics anticipates that industrial profits will continue to recover, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing the domestic economic cycle [4] - The macro research team at Galaxy Securities suggests that if demand continues to improve, industrial profits are likely to maintain an upward trend, although external demand fluctuations and cost pressures may introduce uncertainties [4][5] - Key areas to monitor include the pace of domestic demand expansion policies and the impact of external demand and geopolitical risks on industrial profits [5]

投容大咖啡 a 13 6 ® P 0 . 418 蒋卫华 专注商业本质 以长期视角挖掘成长确定性 ——访永赢基金蒋卫华 蒋卫华将80%以上的精力用于评估目标公司的商业行为对其自身价值的影响。"我们会全面考量公司所 在产业的发展趋势、公司的战略与其产业发展的趋势是否匹配，以及公司是否具有优秀的执行管理团 队。"他解释道，"只有产业趋势、公司战略和管理团队三者高度匹配，才能带来企业长期竞争力的持续 提升与股东回报的稳健增长。" 在蒋卫华的投资框架中，评估商业活动是第一要务，其次是等待合适的市场价格；而宏观经济、流动 性、市场风格等因素的重要程度相对较低。 "市场短期走势难以预测，仅通过分析宏观、政策等来获取收益是'缘木求鱼'。我们通过对行业与公司 精细分析，来挖掘相对确定的增长机会。"蒋卫华称。 ◎记者 王彭 能够穿越周期、持续有所收获的投资者，往往都具有独特的投资理念和坚定的执行力。 在永赢基金权益投资部基金经理蒋卫华看来，投资是一场持久战，需要对商业本质有深刻理解、对价值 创造有坚定信念，以及等待合适价格的耐心。这种扎根于基本面研究的投资理念，正是他在复杂多变的 市场中保持稳健的基石。 深挖能够持续创造价值的 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - From January to August 2025, the cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 1.7%[2] - In August 2025, industrial enterprises' revenue improved slightly with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month[3] - August 2025 saw a significant profit growth of 20.4% year-on-year, marking a recovery of 21.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] Group 2: Cost and Profitability Analysis - In August 2025, the cost per 100 yuan of revenue was 85.7 yuan, a decrease of 0.2 yuan compared to the same month in 2024, marking the first decline since July 2024[4] - Profit margins improved, with the profit rate turning positive after previously contributing negatively, indicating a recovery in profitability[4] - The contribution of profit factors in August 2025 was +5.6 from industrial added value, -3.2 from PPI, and +17.7 from profit margin year-on-year[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - Public utility profits increased, with their share of total profits rising to 11.4%, while upstream mining and midstream equipment sectors showed varied performance[5] - The cumulative profit of upstream sectors improved by 3.8 percentage points to -9.1% year-on-year, with significant recovery in black metallurgy and chemical fiber sectors[5] - In August 2025, the profit of "anti-involution" industries improved by 3.8 percentage points to -4.3%, while non-anti-involution industries improved by 2.8 percentage points to 0.9%[6] Group 4: Inventory and Economic Outlook - In August 2025, nominal inventory decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%, while actual inventory fell by 0.8 percentage points to 5.2% year-on-year[7] - The report anticipates increased downward pressure on economic growth in Q4 2025, which may affect the upward slope of equity markets, but timely policy support is expected to mitigate this impact[7]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia, as the largest archipelagic country in Southeast Asia, faces significant social unrest driven by wealth disparity and political challenges, which presents both risks and opportunities for investment and business development [5][6][9]. Group 1: Economic Landscape - Indonesia's GDP per capita in 2023 is approximately $4,940.55, indicating a moderately high-income level, but the country struggles to achieve the desired 8% annual GDP growth rate, currently hovering around 5% [9]. - In 2023, Indonesia attracted $220.5 billion in foreign investment, with Singapore, China, and Hong Kong being the top three sources. Notably, a significant portion of Singapore's investments is attributed to Chinese enterprises [9][22]. - The government aims for Indonesia to become the fifth-largest economy globally by 2045, reflecting a long-term vision for economic growth [7]. Group 2: Social Issues and Wealth Disparity - The wealth gap in Indonesia is stark, with the richest 10% controlling 30-35% of the national income, while the poorest 40% hold only about 15% [11]. - The poverty rate in Indonesia is reported at 68.3% based on a typical poverty line, indicating a significant portion of the population remains economically marginalized [12]. - The political structure has historically contributed to this inequality, with a highly centralized government that has struggled to effectively distribute resources and power [13][14]. Group 3: Business Environment and Opportunities - The Indonesian government has implemented policies to enhance the business environment, such as the Omnibus Law, which simplifies investment regulations and offers tax incentives in free trade zones [25]. - Chinese enterprises have played a crucial role in Indonesia's economic development, particularly in sectors like nickel processing, infrastructure, and e-commerce, significantly impacting local job creation and economic stability [22][23][25]. - The rise of fintech and e-commerce, driven by investments from Chinese companies, has transformed the payment landscape in Indonesia, promoting cashless transactions and enhancing consumer engagement [25]. Group 4: Infrastructure Development - Infrastructure development is critical for Indonesia's economic growth, with ongoing projects like the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway symbolizing significant investment in connectivity [22]. - The need for improved communication networks has led to substantial investments from companies like Huawei and ZTE, which are establishing a robust telecommunications infrastructure [22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The balance between social unrest and economic development will be pivotal for Indonesia's future, as the country navigates its path towards becoming a more integrated and prosperous economy [26][27]. - The presence of Chinese businesses in Indonesia is seen as both a risk and an opportunity, shaping the country's economic landscape amid ongoing social challenges [27].

Core Viewpoint - The profit growth rate continues to recover, but it is more related to a low base, and current cost pressures remain high [3][9][57] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In July, industrial profits showed a month-on-month increase of 3.3 percentage points to -1.1%, driven by cost and expense rate improvements [3][9] - The cumulative profit year-on-year decreased by 1.7%, while revenue growth was 2.3%, slightly down from the previous month's 2.5% [2][8] - The cost rate for the consumer manufacturing chain remains at a historical high of 84.2%, with the petrochemical and metallurgy chains also experiencing increases [3][9][57] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The consumer manufacturing sector saw a significant decline in revenue growth, with a year-on-year drop of 2.6 percentage points to 6.2% in July [4][23] - The automotive industry's revenue growth fell sharply by 7.9 percentage points to 4.1% compared to the previous month [4][23] - In contrast, the petrochemical and metallurgy sectors experienced slight improvements in revenue, with increases of 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively [4][23] Group 3: Cost and Inventory Trends - The overall cost pressure for industrial enterprises remains high, with accounts receivable turnover rates showing no significant improvement [29][26] - Actual inventory growth saw a slight rebound, with upstream and midstream inventories performing better [44][59] - The nominal inventory decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 2.4%, while actual inventory increased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.6% [59][44] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing cost pressures are primarily due to downstream "involution" investments, leading to rigid cost increases [29][58] - There is an expectation for a long-term trend of profit recovery, supported by continuous domestic demand recovery, although attention should be paid to the negative impact of upstream price surges on profitability [29][58]

Profit and Revenue Trends - In July, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue increased by 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.5% in the previous month[7] - Cumulative profit showed a decline of 1.7% year-on-year, slightly improved from a decline of 1.8% previously[7] - The profit growth rate in July rebounded by 3.3 percentage points to -1.1%[3] Cost and Profitability Analysis - Cost and expense rates contributed significantly to profit recovery, with costs up by 9.8 percentage points to 5.9% and expenses up by 0.5 percentage points to -1.6%[3] - The cost rate's impact on profit year-on-year decreased by 16.8 percentage points to -10.9% in July 2024 compared to the previous month[3] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises improved, with July's profit rising by 2.8 percentage points to -1.5%[28] Sector Performance - The automotive sector experienced a significant profit decline of 113.7 percentage points to -17.1% in July, indicating high volatility in specific industries[14] - Revenue growth in the consumer manufacturing sector fell sharply, with a year-on-year decline of 2.6 percentage points to 6.2%[21] - The petrochemical and metallurgy sectors showed slight revenue improvements, with increases of 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points to 0.2% and 2.7%, respectively[21] Inventory and Receivables - The inventory growth rate for industrial enterprises slightly increased, with nominal inventory down by 0.7 percentage points to 2.4%[39] - Accounts receivable as a percentage of total assets rose to 14.6%, indicating prolonged collection cycles[23] - Actual inventory growth improved by 0.3 percentage points to 7.6%, particularly in upstream and midstream sectors[39]

Core Viewpoint - The profit growth rate continues to recover, but it is largely due to a low base effect, and current cost pressures remain high [3][9][57] Group 1: Profit and Cost Analysis - In July, industrial profits showed a month-on-month increase of 3.3 percentage points to -1.1%, driven by cost and expense rate improvements [3][9] - The cost rate for the consumer manufacturing chain remains at a historical high of 84.2%, while the petrochemical and metallurgy chains also saw increases in cost rates to 85.9% and 86.8% respectively [3][9][57] - Other gains and short-term fluctuations in specific industries significantly constrained monthly profits, particularly in the automotive sector, which experienced a dramatic profit growth decline of 113.7 percentage points to -17.1% [3][18][57] Group 2: Revenue Trends - July revenue showed signs of weakening, particularly in the consumer manufacturing sector, with actual revenue growth declining by 2.6 percentage points to 6.2% year-on-year [4][23][58] - The automotive industry's revenue growth fell by 7.9 percentage points to 4.1%, while the petrochemical and metallurgy sectors experienced slight improvements [4][23][58] Group 3: Future Outlook - Current cost pressures for industrial enterprises remain significant, necessitating ongoing monitoring of the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [4][29][58] - The long-term trend of profit recovery for enterprises is expected to continue, supported by a gradual easing of rigid cost pressures and ongoing recovery in domestic demand [4][29][58] Group 4: Regular Tracking - Industrial enterprise profits have shown a recovery, primarily due to improvements in operating profit margins, with July profits increasing by 2.8 percentage points to -1.5% [5][59] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises has declined, with significant drops in sectors such as instruments and automobiles, where revenue fell by 9.7% and 7.9% respectively [5][59] - Actual inventory growth has slightly rebounded, particularly in the upstream and midstream sectors, with nominal inventory decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 2.4% [5][59][44]