证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 关注"价"的积极信号 ——1 月制造业 PMI 点评 1、制造业 PMI：短期因素叠加，景气重返收缩区间 （1）新订单：1 月新订单降至 49.2%，再度回到收缩区间，反映上月需求透 支效应。在 12 月冲刺之后，1 月需求释放透支。下游春节提前放假、降温天 气也导致需求放缓。另外，新出口订单环比降幅低于新订单总体，显示内需订 单放缓的力度相对更大。 （2）生产：生产节奏放缓，但仍在扩张区间。受需求端承压影响，生产相应 波动，增势有所放缓。其中，消费品制造业生产指数下滑 4pct 至荣枯线以下 是主要拖累，而代表新动能的行业生产仍在高景气，分化有所加大。 （3）外贸：进口偏强、出口订单转弱。新出口订单环比-1.2pct 至 47.8%，收 缩再度加剧。1 月美国针对部分高技术制造品类加征关税，美欧贸易关税摩擦 也有波动，叠加临近春节，新出口订单增势环比放缓。进口环比+0.3pct 至 47.3%，生产景气对进口需求或有一定支撑。 （4）价格：原材料购进价格、出厂价格环比+3.0pct、+1.7pct 至 56.1%、50.6%， 其中后者自 2024 年 5 月以来首次回 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 一、消费品 消费品中电动工具、手动工具、草坪割草机以欧美高端消费市场为主。 总体表现：2025年，电动工具、手动工具、草坪割草机出口金额累计同比增速分别为-2%、-6%、+32%； 其中12月单月同比增速分别为-13%、-9%、+20%，环比变动-5pcts、-4pct、+7pcts。从边际变化看，12月 消费品出口同比增速有降有升，或与海外需求节奏波动有关。同时，近年来受全球关税扰动等影响，国内 企业加速在东南亚等地新增产能以满足北美等市场订单，因此国内海关统计的部分机械出口金额同比压力 有所增大。 北美市场：2025年，我国出口至北美地区的电动工具、手动工具、草坪割草机累计金额分别同 比-25%、-10%、-17%，其中 ...

以前只听说过招聘用AI筛简历、搞面试； 没想到现在连大学招生的活儿，也被AI拿下了…… 最近美国多所高校开启AI评审，但各种操作中最让人意外的，是弗吉尼亚理工大学靠AI审核学生入学申请材料。 这直接省下了8000小时人工工作量，让录取结果比往常早出了一个月。 只能说，你以为的招生办，背后其实是AI在打工（doge）。 「AI选拔」渗透越来越广 这种AI选拔的现象其实早有苗头，只是现在风水轮流转，吹到了象牙塔。 早就听大家吐槽过，许多公司不仅用AI筛简历，甚至还用AI进行视频面试，通过分析应聘者的面部表情和语气来判断性格。 就比如，知名消费品大厂联合利华就曾大规模引入AI面试系统，要求应聘者对着摄像头自言自语，由后台模型分析面试者的表现，决定打工人的 去留。 现在，AI招生也来了。 于是，「AI+人工协同」的招生模式出现了。 今年，每位申请人的每篇文章会由一名人类和AI分别评分，如果评分不一致，还会由另一位审核员再次打分。 弗吉尼亚理工大学的招生管理副院长表示，在这种模式下，招生办已经节省了约8000小时的人工工作量。 为此，学校还计划比平时提前一个月发送录取通知书。 但可能也是被逼出来的。 近年来，随着美国许 ...

闻乐 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 以前只听说过招聘用AI筛简历、搞面试； 没想到现在连大学招生的活儿，也被AI拿下了…… 最近美国多所高校开启AI评审，但各种操作中最让人意外的，是弗吉尼亚理工大学 靠AI审核学生入学申请材料 。 这直接省下了8000小时人工工作量，让录取结果比往常早出了一个月。 「AI选拔」渗透越来越广 这种AI选拔的现象其实早有苗头，只是现在风水轮流转，吹到了象牙塔。 早就听大家吐槽过，许多公司不仅用AI筛简历，甚至还用AI进行视频面试，通过分析应聘者的面部表情和语气来判断性格。 就比如，知名消费品大厂联合利华就曾大规模引入AI面试系统，要求应聘者对着摄像头自言自语，由后台模型分析面试者的表现，决定打工 人的去留。 现在， AI招生 也来了。 但可能也是被逼出来的。 近年来，随着美国许多高校将SAT/ACT考试改为可选项目，申请门槛降低，申请人数就爆发式增长了。 招生部门面临的工作压力，已经不是靠多喝几杯咖啡就能解决的了（doge）。 以弗吉尼亚理工大学2025年秋季招生为例，他们原本计划只招收约7085名新生，结果却收到了超过5.7万份申请。 如果只是看个简历也就罢了 ...

美国沃克斯新闻网站1月20日文章，原题：中国如今正在世界上展现一种新型力量 说中国2025年取得了 成功，恐怕远不足以形容其成就。华盛顿对华采取强硬立场，大幅加征关税、限制芯片出口，但很难找 到这些举措奏效的证据。相反，中国凭借不断增强的"软实力"蓬勃发展，甚至反过来对美国产生了显著 的经济影响。 就算你没看过现象级中国国产大片《哪吒2》，也没玩过游戏《黑神话：悟空》，你很可能听说过拉布 布。为什么这些中国文化产品恰好在当前成功走向世界？这将如何影响中国对美国日益增强的硬实力？ 就这些问题，记者采访了英国《经济学人》驻上海的中国商业与金融编辑唐·韦恩兰德。 问：这些产品在过去一年成功走出国门、成为文化出口爆款，它们有何共同点？这次情况与以往有何不 同？ 答：我总结出两个关键因素。第一，这些作品背后的创作者大多在40岁左右。他们上大学时正值中国教 育的重要变革期——高校扩招，互联网相对开放。他们吸收了大量外国文化，并将影响融入创作中。其 次，这类产品如今获得的投资比过去要多得多。中国希望在制造业领域保持强大，在电动汽车、太阳能 等领域保持领先地位，过去并未真正重视文化产品和软实力。但这种情况正在发生改变，例如在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant shift in investor sentiment as funds move from technology stocks to sectors like banking, consumer goods, and materials, betting on their performance in a potentially accelerating U.S. economy in 2026 [1][4] - Large technology stocks are expected to drive profit growth in Q4, with a projected year-on-year earnings increase of 20% for tech companies in the S&P 500, while non-tech companies' earnings growth is expected to slow dramatically from 9% to just 1% [1][4] - The performance guidance from companies like Caterpillar, Procter & Gamble, and JPMorgan is deemed crucial for validating Wall Street's optimistic forecasts regarding economic growth, even if the U.S. economy does not achieve full-year expansion [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the profit growth for S&P 500 value stocks will be 9%, which is only one-third of the growth expected for growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, where earnings are anticipated to rise by 30% [2][5] - Supportive factors for market confidence include expected profit growth of 13% for industrial companies and around 12% for non-essential consumer goods and services, with healthcare, materials, and essential goods also nearing 10% growth [2][5] - The Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, declining oil prices, relaxed credit standards, and the "Good Jobs Act" are seen as potential benefits for cyclical sectors in the economy and stock market [2][5] Group 3 - Investors are actively participating in the sector rotation, with Deutsche Bank reporting a decrease in holdings of large-cap growth and tech stocks, while small-cap stock holdings have reached their highest level in nearly a year [3][6] - Recent fund flows indicate a clear trend of sector rotation, with nearly $900 million flowing out of the tech sector while materials, healthcare, and industrial sectors attracted a combined inflow of $8.3 billion [3][6] - The upcoming earnings season is viewed as a critical test for 493 non-tech stocks in the S&P 500 and small-cap stocks, as market expectations for their earnings have been set quite high [3][6]

Group 1: Reliance Industries - Reliance Industries (RIL) is awaiting clarity on access to Venezuelan crude oil for non-US buyers following a major military operation by Washington in Venezuela [1] - Speculation suggests that the US intervention is unlikely to result in an immediate increase in crude oil production and exports from Venezuela's aging infrastructure within the next six months [1] Group 2: Bharat Forge - Bharat Forge has signed a strategic collaboration agreement with Germany-based Agile Robots SE to explore AI-driven robotics and intelligent industrial automation [2] - The collaboration aims to deploy advanced solutions in the automotive, healthcare, and consumer electronics sectors [2] Group 3: Bajaj Finserv - Bajaj Finserv, along with Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd and Jamnalal Sons Private Ltd, has acquired a 23% stake in its insurance subsidiaries from Allianz SE for ₹21,390 crore [3] - This acquisition increases Bajaj Group's ownership in Bajaj General Insurance and Bajaj Life Insurance to 97%, providing complete control with a 75.01% stake [3] Group 4: Hindustan Unilever - Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) has received an income tax assessment order of ₹1,559.69 crore for the financial year 2021-22 [4] - HUL stated that the order will not materially impact its financials or operations and plans to appeal the decision [4] Group 5: National Stock Exchange of India - The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) is in discussions for a strategic collaboration with Indian Gas Exchange (IGX) to develop Indian Natural Gas Futures [5] - This partnership aims to leverage NSE's derivatives market expertise and IGX's capabilities in spot natural gas trading [5] Group 6: Bartronics India - Bartronics India has approved an investment of up to ₹3 crore to acquire up to 51% equity in Shree Naga Narasimha [6] - The investment is intended for strategic expansion and to achieve operational and financial synergies [6] Group 7: Prestige Group - Prestige Group, through Canopy Living LLP, has signed an agreement to purchase a 16.381-acre land parcel in Padi, Chennai, from Sundaram Clayton [7] Group 8: PM Green - PM Green, a subsidiary of Power Mech Projects, has secured a ₹3,126 crore order from WBSEDCL to set up a 1,000 MWh battery storage system [8] - The order includes a 100% off-take guarantee and a greenshoe option of 250 MW/1,000 MWh for the Durgapur Project Ltd campus [8] Group 9: UPL Ltd - UPL Ltd has acquired the remaining 25% stake in UPL Agro Ltd for $17.86 million, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary [9] - This acquisition consolidates UPL's control over Yoloo (Laoting) Biotechnology Ltd in China, enhancing its position in the Chinese crop protection market [9] Group 10: Brainbees Solutions - Brainbees Solutions (Groww) has completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Solis Hygiene Private Ltd through a share-swap transaction [10] - This deal increases Brainbees' shareholding in Swara Baby Products from 75.92% to 76.59% [10] Group 11: Eureka Forbes - Eureka Forbes Ltd is involved in a tax dispute regarding an assessment order demanding ₹16.22 crore for alleged excess input tax credit claims [11] - The company has contested the order and is in the process of fulfilling a court condition to deposit 10% of the disputed amount [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, both manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI rebounded above the boom - bust line. The new kinetic energy is supporting the manufacturing industry, but related industries may be more vulnerable to external demand fluctuations. The pace of new - old kinetic energy conversion is an important window to observe the economic recovery [2]. - The report expects long - term interest rates to fluctuate widely, with the 10 - year Treasury yield expected to oscillate between 1.8% - 1.9% and the 30 - year Treasury yield between 2.2% - 2.4% [2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Event Description - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI rose 0.9pct to 50.1%, with the month - on - month increase expanding by 0.7pct. The non - manufacturing business activity index rebounded 0.7pct to 50.2%. The construction business activity index soared 3.2pct to 52.8%, and the service business activity index rebounded 0.2pct to 49.7% [5]. Event Comment Non - manufacturing Sector - The non - manufacturing sector's return above the boom - bust line is in line with seasonal trends, led by construction. The improvement in new orders, inventory, and employment is driven by domestic demand, while new export orders declined. The profit margin may be compressed, and the sustainability of the improvement needs further observation. In construction, seasonal factors and high - growth financial activities may support the improvement. In services, the transmission of upstream manufacturing prosperity to downstream consumption remains to be seen [7]. Manufacturing Sector - New kinetic energy supports the manufacturing industry, but related industries are more susceptible to external demand. The high - frequency indicators have weakened, but the manufacturing industry improved due to the high - level prosperity of new kinetic energy industries. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate in specific ranges [7]. Other Aspects of Manufacturing - Manufacturing PMI continued to rise, with production, demand, and inventory all improving. External demand contributed to new orders, and the profit repair pressure may be reduced. Large and medium - sized enterprises and high - tech manufacturing showed better performance [9].

PMI Overview - December manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November[1] - The production index rose to 51.7%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous value of 50.0%[1] - New orders index improved to 50.8%, up from 49.2%[1] - New export orders index increased to 49.0%, compared to 47.6% previously[1] Influencing Factors - Year-end factors contributed to a rise in construction PMI to 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points from 49.6%[4] - Seasonal effects led to a strong production index at 51.7%, marking the highest for the quarter[5] - External demand showed resilience with the new export orders index at 49.0%, indicating a recovery in exports[6] Price and Inventory Insights - December's PMI factory price index was 48.9%, slightly up from 48.2%, remaining below the neutral line[2] - The main raw materials purchase price index stood at 53.1%, above the neutral line, indicating ongoing high demand[2] - Inventory indicators showed signs of replenishment, with the purchasing index at 51.1%, up from 49.5%[23] Economic Outlook - Manufacturing activity expectations index rose to 55.5%, up from 53.1%, reflecting improved sentiment[24] - Comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.7%, indicating overall expansion in production activities[24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the proactive measures taken by the Zhenyuan County Market Supervision Administration to ensure market order and consumer safety during the upcoming New Year and Spring Festival by conducting a special market safety inspection [1][2] Group 1: Special Inspection Focus Areas - The inspection targets five key areas: food safety, drug and medical device safety, market price stability, special equipment safety, and product quality [1] - Food safety inspections will focus on seasonal food items such as grains, meat products, alcoholic beverages, and pastries, with strict monitoring of supermarkets, restaurants, rural gatherings, and online food services [1] - Drug and medical device safety checks will include antipyretic and cough medicines, emergency drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, and children's cosmetics, ensuring compliance with sales channels and advertising regulations [1] - Market price stability will be maintained by closely monitoring the prices of daily necessities and holiday services, with strict actions against price gouging and deceptive pricing practices [1] - Special equipment safety inspections will focus on heating boilers, gas pipelines, and elevators in public places to ensure operational safety [1] - Product quality supervision will intensify for key consumer goods such as gas appliances, electric bicycles, heating products, fireworks, and fire safety products, targeting unlicensed production and sales of substandard items [1] Group 2: Inspection Progress and Future Actions - As of now, the special inspection has mobilized 112 law enforcement personnel, checked 498 business entities, and identified and rectified 36 safety hazards [2] - The Zhenyuan County Market Supervision Administration plans to maintain a high-pressure stance, enforce emergency response protocols, and ensure smooth complaint channels for rapid response to illegal activities [2]