2025 年 11 月 26 日 开源晨会 1126 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 沪深300 创业板指 晨 会 纪 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 3.539 | | 传媒 | 2.847 | | 有色金属 | 2.418 | | 综合 | 2.206 | | 电子 | 2.137 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 观点：双轮驱动下，科技与周期阶段性再平衡 从 10 月最后一周开始，我们观点发生变化：双轮驱动下，科技与周期再平衡，反 内卷下周期机会凸显。三个原因：①从三季报表现来看，科技与周期在 Q3 实现 同步发力——两翼齐飞；②高贝塔行情下，科技今年以来已经累计较多涨幅；③ 机构仓位于科技上较为集中，上行较快。我们认为，再平衡阶段或将持续 1-2 个 月，但展望 2026 年，风格会相对更加均衡：其中，科技依然具备中长期占优的条 件，顺周期的主要机会在 PPI，红利风格在 2026 年会优于 2025 年。 行业公司 【通信】阿里云营收增速再创新高，阿里资本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector is experiencing significant policy support, with recent guidelines from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aimed at promoting high-quality development in the renewable energy industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. This is expected to create abundant investment opportunities in clean energy sources and new grid construction over the next 3-5 years, driven by global electricity shortages and carbon reduction demands [2]. Energy Storage - The guidelines emphasize the necessity of a capacity electricity price mechanism. Inner Mongolia has set an independent energy storage discharge compensation standard of 0.28 yuan/kWh for 2026, which is better than expected. Haibo has signed a three-year long-term contract for 200GWh with Ningde, indicating strong demand for energy storage and optimistic expectations for battery supply tightness [2][5]. Lithium Battery - According to Xinluo Lithium Battery, global energy storage battery shipments reached 428GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 90.7%. In November, there is a significant supply shortage of VC, leading to a sharp price increase. Leading electrolyte companies have only 10-15 days of VC inventory, which is far below the safety stock level. The high production enthusiasm and price increase expectations continue to support a positive outlook for the entire lithium battery industry chain [1][2]. Wind Power - Inner Mongolia plans to add 150GW of new energy installations over the next five years and has initiated a competitive bidding process for 15GW of wind power in 2025. There is optimism for sustained high levels of wind power bidding in the short term and strong demand in the medium to long term. The pricing policies for offshore wind in Zhejiang and Jiangsu show clear policy support, suggesting that domestic offshore wind is likely to see significant growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3]. Photovoltaics - Perovskite technology is receiving policy support and industrial progress, with ongoing recommendations to focus on equipment and core materials. CSIQ (the parent company of Aters) has released a strong guidance for 2026 energy storage shipment volumes. There is a continued recommendation for bottom-fishing in the photovoltaic sector, including leaders in energy storage, glass, low-cost silicon materials, high-efficiency batteries/modules, and new technologies like perovskite and tandem cells [3]. Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cells - The national level has continuously issued strategic policy documents to promote the maturity of the green hydrogen and ammonia industry from multiple dimensions, including system positioning and development pathways. The demand for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) is strongly determined, and the industry development trend is clear, showing resilience against short-term fluctuations [3]. Electric Grid - The State Grid has opened bidding for three batches of metering equipment, with new standards leading to price increases of over 30% for A-D grade meters, which is expected to significantly enhance profit margins for leading companies. The sixth round of bidding for transmission and transformation projects by the State Grid in 2025 maintains a high volume [4]. New Energy Vehicles - The automotive market entered a negative growth phase in October due to the continuous decline of local subsidies and high base figures from the same period last year. The penetration rate continues to rise, validating the impact of the reduction in purchase tax exemptions. It is expected that Q4 market sales will remain flat year-on-year, with the penetration rate continuing to break new highs, but closer observation of demand in Q1 2026 is necessary [4]. Important Industry Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has included perovskite in the "Frontier Materials Pilot Platform." Inner Mongolia has clarified the independent energy storage compensation standard for 2026 at 0.28 yuan/kWh. The region has also initiated competitive bidding for 15GW of wind power projects in 2025. Longi Green Energy has acquired Suzhou Jingkong Energy to enter the energy storage industry, and Goldwind Technology has opened a solution factory in South Africa. The State Grid has opened bidding for metering equipment and announced the sixth round of bidding for transmission and transformation projects [5].

Group 1 - The domestic equity market experienced a stable performance with major indices showing a weekly increase of less than 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed the 4000-point mark, closing at 3997.56 points on Friday [1] - The average daily trading volume in the market remained around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a healthy overall market operation [1] - Sectors such as electric equipment and new energy, steel, and oil and petrochemicals saw significant gains, while comprehensive finance, computer, and pharmaceuticals faced declines [1] Group 2 - Lithium battery companies have recently seen a surge in stock prices, coinciding with the disclosure of Q3 2025 reports, with many companies' performance acting as a catalyst for this increase [2] - The global energy storage market demand has shown high growth, with a 97.7% year-on-year increase in new domestic energy storage project tenders in the first three quarters of this year [2] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key indicator in the lithium battery industry, has recently doubled since mid-September, ending a two-year period of stagnation [2] Group 3 - The bond market showed a bear flattening trend in the yield curve, with a slight narrowing of the term spread, while credit bond yields exhibited differentiation [3] - The October manufacturing PMI underperformed expectations, and CPI data showed signs of gradual recovery, which may lead to increased interest rate cut expectations if upcoming data remains under pressure [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Supreme Court's hearing on the "Trump tariffs" has raised questions about the future of U.S. tariff policies, with market expectations shifting towards a potential rejection of these tariffs [2] - The implications of different verdicts on tariffs could significantly affect macroeconomic conditions, fiscal policies, and the bond market [2] Group 2: E-commerce Industry - The e-commerce sector is expected to see moderate growth during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, with GMV projected to increase by mid-to-high single digits, benefiting from platform subsidies and extended promotional timelines [3] - Major platforms are expected to show differentiated performance, with Douyin's GMV growth estimated at 20-25%, Pinduoduo at 10-15%, while JD.com may see low single-digit growth and Alibaba is expected to remain flat [3] - The competitive landscape among e-commerce platforms is anticipated to remain intense in 2026, with a focus on traffic acquisition and core user benefits [3] Group 3: Fixed Income and Asset Allocation - The asset allocation outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from "sharpness" to a more balanced approach, with a focus on identifying more certain opportunities while mitigating tail risks [4] - Key drivers for the global manufacturing cycle include the AI technology revolution and the transition of China's economic drivers, with a continued emphasis on risk assets [4] Group 4: Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector has seen a cumulative increase of 7.7% from January to October 2025, with retail sales driven by subsidies but showing signs of weakening marginal growth [5] - Three major trends are identified: the resilience of leading white goods manufacturers, the strengthening of smart technology in appliances, and significant growth potential in emerging technologies like AI and robotics [5] Group 5: Energy Sector - The fourth-generation nuclear power technologies are expected to gain traction due to site restrictions and resource constraints, presenting investment opportunities in related industries [6] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for traditional power generation equipment and the anticipated growth in nuclear power projects [14] Group 6: Selected Companies - Gaode Infrared has been initiated with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 18.90 CNY, driven by expected growth in complete equipment orders [10] - Ying Tong Holdings, a leading high-end perfume brand manager, has been initiated with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 2.86 HKD, benefiting from the recovery in high-end consumption [10] - Harsco Electric is positioned to benefit from the normalization of third-generation nuclear approvals and the anticipated acceleration of fourth-generation nuclear development [14]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for power equipment and renewable energy is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The performance of the power grid equipment sector in Q3 shows significant differentiation, with non-UHV main networks outperforming UHV main networks, distribution, and electric meters [1] - The export logic remains strong, particularly for transformers and other primary equipment, with a notable increase in orders and revenue [2] - The gross margin in the distribution and electric meter segments is under pressure, but overseas expansion is enhancing profitability quality [3] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance Overview - Non-UHV main networks, UHV main networks, distribution, and electric meters showed revenue growth rates of 38.2%, 5.2%, -23.6%, and -28.4% respectively [1] - The non-UHV main network's strong performance is attributed to high demand for overseas expansion and robust domestic main network construction needs [1] - Distribution segment companies are facing challenges due to domestic price reductions and weakening demand from new energy and industrial sectors [1] Export Trends - From January to September, China's transformer exports reached $6.22 billion, a 39% year-on-year increase, with September alone seeing a 47% increase [2] - High-voltage switch exports also grew by 31.2% year-on-year during the same period [2] Gross Margin Analysis - The distribution and electric meter segments are experiencing noticeable gross margin declines due to price reductions and low-priced orders being fulfilled [3] - Companies like Siyuan Electric and Kehua Tech have seen gross margin improvements driven by higher overseas revenue contributions [3] - The overall expense ratio has shown a downward trend, indicating cost control efforts among companies [3] Profit Forecast Adjustments - Profit forecasts for Siyuan Electric in the non-UHV segment have been raised for 2025 and 2026, while forecasts for several companies in the UHV segment have been lowered [4][10] - Specific adjustments include a decrease in profit predictions for China XD Electric and Pinggao Electric, reflecting market conditions [4][10]

Core Insights - The report provides a summary of recommended stocks across various industries for November 2025, highlighting potential investment opportunities based on performance and market conditions [2]. Banking Sector - Ningbo Bank (002142.SZ) shows an improving trend in Q3 performance with a continuous decline in non-performing loan generation rate and a positive shift in net interest margin, indicating a solid bottom line [2]. Non-Banking Financials - Dongfang Securities (600958.SH) is recommended due to its strong stock characteristics and reasonable valuation, with expectations of outperforming the index as Q3 earnings season approaches [2]. Real Estate - China Jinmao (0817.HK) is positioned favorably due to stable sales and proactive expansion, with a better risk release compared to other major real estate firms, amidst a challenging sales environment [2]. Electronics - Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) benefits from the growing demand for AI server products, leading to significant increases in GB series server shipments and a steady rise in market share among major clients [2]. Telecommunications - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) is a leading company in optical modules, expected to benefit from the rising global demand for data center optical modules driven by AI development in 2026-2027 [2]. Power Equipment and New Energy - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) is recognized for its comprehensive solutions in photovoltaic power generation and energy storage, with steady growth driven by expanding market demand [2]. - Dongsheng Technology (300073.SZ) is noted for its leading position in ternary cathode materials, with anticipated growth from the recovery of European new energy vehicle demand and advancements in solid-state battery technology [2]. Metals and Materials - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is highlighted for its strong earnings potential and high valuation appeal, with significant growth prospects in gold, copper, and lithium mining [2]. Internet - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is seen as a key player in the AI era, leveraging its ecosystem advantages to capture market opportunities, particularly in e-commerce and AI agent services [2]. Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - China General Nuclear Power (003816.SZ) is expected to rebound as new nuclear units are set to be commissioned, with market prices for nuclear power projected to increase [2].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In September, industrial enterprises' profits improved year-on-year to 21.6%, up from 20.4% in August, driven by a low base effect and strong export performance [3] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises also increased to 3.1% in September from 2.3% in August, indicating a positive trend in cash flow due to anti-involution policies [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The bond market has shown signs of recovery in October, influenced by trade tensions and a loose liquidity environment, with expectations for a better fourth quarter compared to the third [5] - The market anticipates a controlled impact from new redemption regulations, with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds as a primary investment strategy [5] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices have entered a downward trend due to OPEC+ increasing production targets and seasonal demand decline, with Brent crude expected to average $68 in 2025 and $62 in 2026 [9] - Despite short-term volatility from geopolitical tensions, the long-term outlook suggests limited impact from sanctions on oil prices, with high-dividend energy companies presenting investment opportunities [9] Group 4: Real Estate and Construction - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, attributed to high base effects and seasonal factors [8] - The construction sector shows mixed signals, with some recovery in cement supply and demand, while asphalt production rates have decreased [8] Group 5: Key Company Performances - Beike-W (2423 HK) is projected to benefit from a gradual market recovery, with a target price of HKD 65.64 based on a 26x PE ratio for 2026 [11] - Zhiou Technology (301376 CH) reported a revenue of CNY 60.8 billion for the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, and is expected to improve profitability as tariff risks ease [12] - Tianhai Defense (300008 CH) showed significant growth in Q3, with a revenue increase of 57.27% year-on-year, driven by strong orders in shipbuilding and defense sectors [14] - Kuka Home (603816 CH) reported steady revenue growth of 6.5% in Q3, with a focus on global expansion and brand strength [15] - Weixing New Materials (002372 CH) experienced a revenue decline of 9.83% in Q3, but is expected to see margin recovery as product prices stabilize [16] Group 6: Consumer Goods and Services - Salted Fish (002847 CH) reported a revenue increase of 14.7% year-on-year, with a focus on optimizing product categories and channels to enhance profitability [27] - Petty Co. (300673 CH) continues to see strong growth in its domestic brand, with a focus on single product strategies despite challenges in overseas markets [18] - Jiangsu Bank (601009 CH) reported a steady growth in net profit and revenue, driven by stable interest income and effective cost management [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - On October 13, NVIDIA released the white paper "800 VDC Architecture for Next-Generation AI Infrastructure," outlining its vision for "AI factories," which includes the new generation of open architecture rack servers and an expanded NVIDIA NVLink Fusion ecosystem [2][3] - The introduction of the 800VDC power supply system in NVIDIA's Vera Rubin GPU platform allows for a significant increase in power capacity from 200KW to 1MW per cabinet, indicating a clear trend towards HVDC technology [3] - The demand for high-end soft magnetic materials is expected to rise due to the higher voltage and current requirements of the 800V architecture, necessitating advancements in material performance [3] - The adoption of hollow-core fiber optics by cloud computing giants enhances data center interconnectivity, reducing latency over long distances, which is crucial for real-time data synchronization and AI model training [3] Summary by Sections HVDC Technology - The transition from UPS to medium-voltage rectifiers and eventually to SST solutions is outlined, with medium-voltage direct current (MVDC) already validated in industrial applications, suggesting low implementation difficulty [3] - SST solutions are projected to be more efficient, potentially saving about 50% in space, thus providing more operational flexibility for future data center management [3] Soft Magnetic Materials - The 800V architecture's requirements for magnetic components necessitate higher performance materials, with ferrite materials being particularly suitable [3] Hollow-Core Fiber Optics - Hollow-core fiber optics are noted for their advantages in speed, signal loss reduction, and signal quality improvement, which are critical for enhancing data center operations [3] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: 1. HVDC: Zhongheng Electric, Igor, Sunshine Power, Jinpan Technology, Heweih Electric 2. Soft Magnetic Materials: Hengdian Dongci, Jinli Permanent Magnet 3. Hollow-Core Fiber: Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optic-Electric [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a structural bull market phase, with optimism for the "red October" and fourth-quarter performance, driven by a combination of policy, industry, and capital factors [3][5][8]. Market Performance - On October 9, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97 points, up 1.32%, marking a 29% increase from the low of 3040.69 points on April 7, and a year-to-date gain of 17.37% [5][6]. - The trading volume on this day reached 2.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 471.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day, indicating strong market enthusiasm and capital inflow post-holiday [5][6]. Sector Performance - The market exhibited significant structural characteristics, with the non-ferrous metals sector surging by 7.60%, while semiconductor and power equipment sectors also saw gains exceeding 2% [6][7]. - Gold and other precious metals experienced notable price increases, driven by international gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7]. Investment Strategy - Institutions suggest that the A-share market is likely to continue its upward trend, albeit with volatility, emphasizing a focus on technology growth and the gradual expansion of investment opportunities [3][8]. - The investment strategy should balance between high-potential sectors like AI and semiconductors, while also considering cyclical industries that may benefit from structural changes in the economy [8][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the market will maintain a "震荡向上" (oscillating upward) trend, with technology growth styles expected to dominate in the long term, although there may be shifts between high and low valuation sectors [8][10]. - The upcoming "红十月" (red October) is anticipated to bring favorable conditions for both the fourth quarter and the cross-year market, with a focus on sectors benefiting from technological innovation and resource security [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Electric Equipment and New Energy sector and the Public Utilities sector [1][4]. Core Views - The report highlights China's new carbon reduction targets announced by President Xi Jinping, aiming for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 30% of total energy consumption [8][10]. - The transition from the "peak" phase to the "decline" phase in carbon emissions is emphasized, indicating a clear path towards carbon neutrality [8][10]. - The report identifies key beneficiaries in the energy transition, including leaders in the energy storage industry and companies like Sany Heavy Energy and Guodian NARI [8][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Sany Heavy Energy (688349 CH) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 38.01 CNY, reflecting a significant growth potential [4][15]. - Guodian NARI (600406 CH) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 26.00 CNY, supported by its strong market position in secondary equipment [4][15]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that by 2030, the cost parity of solar and storage will unlock new capacity for renewable energy installations, with a projected increase in installed capacity to 6,816 GW by 2035 [12][14]. - The need for a higher electrification rate and increased green energy proportion is highlighted to meet the carbon reduction targets without sacrificing energy consumption [11][12]. Company Performance - Sany Heavy Energy reported a revenue of 8.594 billion CNY for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.75%, with a significant improvement in profitability expected due to higher-margin product sales [16][17]. - Guodian NARI achieved a revenue of 15.348 billion CNY in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.50%, indicating robust demand in the new power system construction [17][18].