记者丨 庞华玮 编辑丨巫燕玲 视频丨 柳润瑛 10月9日，国庆节后A股"开门红"。在资源股和科技股大涨的带动下，上证指数突破3900点，创下10年新高，而本轮行情较4月7日低点涨幅已 逾29%。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3933.97 | 13725.56 | 1525.81 | | +51.20 +1.32% +199.05 +1.47% -2.82 -0.18% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1539.08 | 3261.82 | 6431.96 | | +43.79 +2.93% +23.66 +0.73% +83.02 +1.31% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4709.48 | 7548.92 | 5708.29 | | +68.79 +1.48% +136.55 +1.84% +89.57 +1.59% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | 7648.05 | 6038.30 | 5502.38 | | +73.09 +0.96% ...

证券研究报告 工业/公用环保 首提降碳目标，展现大国担当 华泰研究 2025 年 9 月 26 日│中国内地 动态点评 电力设备与新能源 增持 (维持) 公用事业 增持 (维持) 王嵩 联系人 alanwang@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 李科毅* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125030018 likeyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 刘俊 研究员 SAC No. S0570523110003 SFC No. AVM464 边文姣 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110004 SFC No. BSJ399 苗雨菲 研究员 miaoyufei@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 SFC No. BTM578 戚腾元 研究员 qitengyuan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 马梦辰，CFA 研究员 SAC No. S0570524100001 SFC No. BUM666 徐嘉欣* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070136 xujiaxin@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The central bank may restart government bond trading, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [4][5] - The government aims to enhance service consumption and has announced measures to optimize service supply capabilities [5] - Recent employment data from the US shows a significant decline in non-farm employment, indicating a cooling labor market [9][10] Group 2: Coal Industry - The coal market is experiencing a transition between thermal and non-thermal coal, with expectations for coal prices to rise [31] - The current operating rate of coal mines is low, and port inventories are decreasing, which supports a potential price rebound [31][32] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies benefiting from both cyclical and dividend strategies within the coal sector [34] Group 3: Real Estate and Construction - New housing transaction volumes have decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, while policies in Shenzhen have been relaxed to stimulate the market [41][42] - The REITs market is showing strong performance, with significant growth in transaction volumes and a favorable environment for high-dividend assets [35][36] - The construction materials index has underperformed compared to the broader market, but the sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support [27][41] Group 4: Thermal Management Materials - The thermal management materials industry is projected to grow significantly, driven by the demand for high-performance electronic devices [20][21] - The market for heat pipes and temperature equalization plates is expected to expand, with local procurement trends emerging due to supply chain considerations [23] - Companies like Suzhou Tianmai are positioned to benefit from this growth due to their early investments in advanced thermal management technologies [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company maintains a leading position in silver paste shipments, with high copper paste expected to achieve industrialization breakthroughs [1] - The company is actively promoting low-silver metallization paste development, which is anticipated to benefit from technological iterations [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 15,351 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 59.9%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 16,578 million, reflecting an 8.0% growth [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted at 219 million, a decrease of 39.2% compared to 2024. However, a significant recovery is expected in 2026 with a projected profit of 428 million, representing a 95.6% increase [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.54 yuan in 2025, with a projected increase to 3.02 yuan in 2026 and 4.39 yuan in 2027 [2] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 60.36 yuan, compared to the current price of 51.63 yuan [3] Operational Highlights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.93%. The net profit for the same period was 7 million, down 70.03% year-on-year [7] - The company shipped 879.86 tons of conductive silver paste in the first half of 2025, with N-type accounting for 95% of the total shipments [7] - The company is advancing the industrialization of high copper paste, which is expected to contribute to performance growth, particularly in the second half of the year [7] - A cash acquisition of 60% of Jiangsu Suote is planned for 696 million, which will enhance market competitiveness and control over the Solamet photovoltaic silver paste business [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 1H25, with revenue and net profit exceeding expectations, driven by market expansion and robust demand in both domestic and overseas markets [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for 1H25 reached 4.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 440 million yuan, up 32.8% [1]. - Revenue from electric AMI grew by 29.8% to 1.88 billion yuan, while communication AMI revenue increased by 12.8% to 1.30 billion yuan, and distribution ADO revenue rose by 6.1% to 1.21 billion yuan [1]. Overseas Revenue and Orders - Overseas revenue for 1H25 increased by 19.1% to 1.24 billion yuan, accounting for 28.3% of total revenue [2]. - By region, revenue from the Americas rose by 26.0% to 680 million yuan, Asia saw a significant increase of 76.2% to 290 million yuan, while Europe surged by 834% to 40 million yuan [2]. - New overseas orders for 1H25 grew by 22.9% to 2.13 billion yuan, with backlog orders up 28% to 3.61 billion yuan as of June [2]. Profitability and Cost Control - The company's gross margin stood at 35.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin improved by 1.2 percentage points to 10.0% [3]. - The company achieved a reduction in expense ratio to 21.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, with decreases in sales, management, and R&D expenses [3]. Growth Outlook - The company is optimistic about growth opportunities in overseas markets and data centers, with new factories in Hungary, Indonesia, and Malaysia expected to enhance order volumes [3]. - Collaborations with major players in the data center sector, including ByteDance, are anticipated to drive further growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 916 million yuan for 2025 and 1.136 billion yuan for 2026, with current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 9.5x and 7.6x for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3]. - The target price has been raised by 22% to 12 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current stock price [3].

Core Insights - Sijingt Technology Group Co., Ltd. reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with sales revenue reaching 888 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%, and net profit attributable to shareholders amounting to 93.77 million yuan, up 178% [2][4] Group 1: Business Performance - The conventional DC and flexible transmission segment continued to perform strongly, contributing significantly to revenue with 385 million yuan, a 38% increase year-on-year [2] - The self-developed power semiconductor business saw substantial growth, with sales revenue of 53.15 million yuan, marking a 231% year-on-year increase and a 23% quarter-on-quarter increase [2][3] Group 2: Growth Areas - The renewable energy generation and storage segment maintained high growth, successfully entering multiple large-scale storage projects and increasing market share in distributed photovoltaics and wind power equipment [3] - The company is focused on expanding its order reserves and aims to deliver on several key projects, including the Shaanxi-Anhui project and the Saudi Central project, while also pursuing new orders in ultra-high voltage direct current projects [3] Group 3: Cost Management - The company effectively managed expenses, with sales expenses at 60.86 million yuan, accounting for 7% of sales revenue, and administrative expenses decreasing from 13% to 12% of revenue, indicating improved management efficiency [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - For the full year of 2025, the company has set ambitious targets, aiming for total sales revenue of 2 billion yuan, a 25% increase, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, reflecting a 40% growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the agenda for the upcoming research framework training hosted by Guotai Junan Securities, focusing on various sectors including advanced manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and technology [12]. Group 1: Event Schedule - The training sessions are scheduled for August 18, 19, 25, and 26, from 9:00 AM to 5:40 PM [8]. - The agenda includes a variety of research topics such as non-metallic building materials, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, steel, construction engineering, and more [9][10]. Group 2: Research Topics - On August 25, the focus will be on cyclical sectors, including non-metallic building materials and steel research [9]. - On August 26, the sessions will cover pharmaceuticals, technology, and advanced manufacturing, with specific topics like biomedicine and overseas technology research [10]. Group 3: Additional Information - The training aims to provide insights and foster collaboration for future value creation [12]. - The content is intended for clients of Guotai Junan Securities' research services, emphasizing the importance of appropriate access to the information provided [13].

Macro Economic Overview - The decline in construction demand has slowed down year-on-year, with construction starts remaining at seasonal lows and cement dispatch volumes stabilizing [5][6] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, although some sectors like chemical chains and automotive tire production have seen a decrease in operating rates [5][6] - The demand for construction materials is weak, with a slight recovery in rebar demand due to a low base in 2024, while automotive sales have also declined [6] Commodity Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with oil prices declining and copper and aluminum prices remaining stable [7] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the South China comprehensive index showing a downward trend [7] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a significant drop in transaction volume in major cities compared to previous years [8] - The second-hand housing market also shows weak performance, with transaction volumes in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai declining [8] Export Trends - Exports are expected to show a year-on-year increase of around 7% to 9% for the period before August 17, driven by a lack of significant declines in high-frequency data [9] Investment Strategy - The North Exchange 50 index has shown strong upward momentum, breaking through the 1500-point mark, indicating a potential new equilibrium [11][12] - The index is characterized by smaller market capitalization and concentrated themes, which can lead to significant price elasticity with marginal changes in fund flows [12][13] Company-Specific Insights Meituan (01357.HK) - The company focuses on its core imaging business, with AI driving an increase in subscription rates, leading to an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [17][19] - The user base is large, and the company is expanding globally while improving its product offerings [20] Leap Motor (09863.HK) - The company is accelerating self-research in intelligent driving, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 being revised upwards due to strong brand demand [22][23] - The company expects significant growth in vehicle deliveries and profitability from its partnerships and new product launches [24] InvoTech (002837.SZ) - The company reported a 50.25% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by the growth of its liquid cooling products in data centers [27][28] - The company is expanding its production capacity and focusing on R&D to enhance its competitive edge [29] Shengquan Group (605589.SH) - The company achieved a 51.2% increase in net profit in Q2, with plans to issue convertible bonds to fund new energy battery material projects [31][32] - The company is positioned to become a leading provider of biomass and chemical new materials solutions [34] Jinneng Technology (603113.SH) - The company reported a 24.1% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with significant growth in its olefin and carbon black production [36][37] - The company is expanding into the hydrogen energy sector and has adjusted its convertible bond price to enhance liquidity [38] China Shenhua (601088.SH) - The company is initiating a large-scale asset acquisition to strengthen its integrated operations, with expected stable profitability and high dividend returns [40][41] - The acquisition involves high-quality assets that will enhance the company's overall profitability and operational efficiency [42][43] Aofei Data (300738.SZ) - The company is a leading provider of IDC services, expanding its data center footprint across China and benefiting from the growth of AI applications [45][46] - The company has established partnerships with major internet firms and is focusing on enhancing its cloud computing capabilities [49] China Hongqiao (01378.HK) - The company reported an 8.48% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by higher prices for alumina and electrolytic aluminum [50][51] - The acquisition of additional equity in Yunnan Hongtai is expected to enhance its production capacity and profitability [52]

Group 1 - The article outlines a comprehensive research framework training program titled "洞察价值，共创未来" (Insight Value, Co-create Future) scheduled for August 18-19 and August 25-26, 2025, focusing on various sectors including macroeconomics, consumption, finance, cycles, medicine, technology, and manufacturing [18][19]. - The training sessions will cover a wide range of topics, with specific time slots allocated for each area of research, such as food and beverage, internet applications, and renewable energy [14][15][16]. - The event will take place at the Guotai Junan Financial Bund Plaza in Shanghai, emphasizing the importance of in-depth analysis across all sectors [18]. Group 2 - The training program is designed to enhance the research capabilities of analysts and is led by various chief analysts specializing in different fields, ensuring a comprehensive approach to industry analysis [8][10]. - Participants will have the opportunity to engage with experts in macroeconomic research, strategy, fixed income, and various sector-specific studies, fostering a collaborative learning environment [14][15][16]. - The program aims to equip analysts with the necessary tools and insights to navigate the complexities of the financial markets and identify potential investment opportunities [18].

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The report emphasizes the effective release of macroeconomic policies, highlighting the focus on economic growth and the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility [4][5] - Recent policies have targeted infrastructure and industrial development, including the implementation of a child-rearing subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year, with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan [4][5] - The report notes that the People's Bank of China continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [5][6] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report identifies the top-performing industries, with the comprehensive sector leading at a 1.557% increase, followed by construction materials at 1.158% and construction decoration at 1.145% [2][3] - Conversely, the report highlights the underperforming sectors, with the computer industry declining by 2.377%, electronics by 1.154%, and media by 0.962% [2][3] Group 3: REITs Market Insights - The report indicates that the REITs market is experiencing significant growth, with the China REITs index showing a year-on-year increase of 6.66% and a trading volume of 8.06 billion shares, up 59.92% year-on-year [40][42] - The approval of the China Aviation Energy photovoltaic REIT expansion is noted, along with the strong performance of warehouse logistics REITs, suggesting a favorable investment environment for REITs [40][41] Group 4: Technology and AI Sector - The report discusses the robust demand for optical lenses and camera modules driven by technological advancements, particularly in smart home and automotive applications, predicting a market supply of 6.331 billion optical lenses by 2027 [35][36] - It highlights the trend of domestic companies like Sunny Optical and Hongjing Optoelectronics gaining market share in the global panoramic camera lens module market, with a share exceeding 25% [36] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The report suggests a dual-driven investment strategy focusing on technology and PPI recovery, indicating that the TMT sector is expected to perform well due to strong fundamentals and market dynamics [15][17] - It recommends a diversified industry allocation strategy, including technology growth, military industry, and cyclical sectors benefiting from PPI improvements [19]