2025年前三季度，香港新股市场迎来瞩目增长，甚至领跑全球。据Wind统计，期间共有68只新股登陆港股，合计募资1824.5亿港元，较去年同期分别增长 51%和227%，按募资额计算稳居全球新股集资榜首。 市场打新热度高涨，98%的新股获超额认购，86%的新股超额认购倍数超20倍，较去年同期翻倍；15只新股认购倍数破千倍，占比近23%，其中大行科工 以7558.40倍认购倍数成"认购王"，医药生物、耐用消费品等领域企业备受追捧。 去年同期仅2只新股认购倍数超千倍，占比仅4%，最高认购倍数是优博控股的2503倍。去年全年共5只新股认购倍数超千倍，占比7%，其中草姬集团认购 倍数最高为6084倍，晶科电子认购倍数5678倍。 值得关注的是，此轮热度是监管规范后的健康增长。2025年3月香港证监会发布新规终结"百倍杠杆打新"，当前超千倍认购更多来自产业价值认可与资金 自然流入。 新股市场赚钱效应更为显著，新股首日破发率降至24%，包括2017年在内，创下九年以来新低，前三季度首日平均回报率高达28%，超大型新股 及"A+H"上市企业表现突出。这一局面，是政策红利、资金宽松与产业升级共同推动的结果，港交所制度创新也进 ...

智通财经10月9日讯（记者 王晨）2025年前三季度，香港新股市场迎来瞩目增长，甚至领跑全球。据Wind统计，期间共有68只新股登陆港股，合计募资 1824.5亿港元，较去年同期分别增长51%和227%，按募资额计算稳居全球新股集资榜首。 市场打新热度高涨，98%的新股获超额认购，86%的新股超额认购倍数超20倍，较去年同期翻倍；15只新股认购倍数破千倍，占比近23%，其中大行科工以 7558.40倍认购倍数成"认购王"，医药生物、耐用消费品等领域企业备受追捧。 值得关注的是，此轮热度是监管规范后的健康增长。2025年3月香港证监会发布新规终结"百倍杠杆打新"，当前超千倍认购更多来自产业价值认可与资金自 然流入。 新股市场赚钱效应更为显著，新股首日破发率降至24%，包括2017年在内，创下九年以来新低，前三季度首日平均回报率高达28%，超大型新股及"A+H"上 市企业表现突出。这一局面，是政策红利、资金宽松与产业升级共同推动的结果，港交所制度创新也进一步巩固了市场优势。 新规下杠杆狂热退潮 新股认购从"百倍"迈入"千倍" 2025年前三季度，港股新股市场呈现出"全民打新"的活跃态势，98%的新股获得超额认购， ...

作为干了20年财经记者、一直扎在中长线投资里的人，帮主我倒觉得这波动静不是"一阵风"。被动基金持续进场，加上主动基金盯着半导体这类有硬逻辑的 赛道，其实是给咱们透了个信号：市场里的"真需求"和"硬底子"，才是外资长期盯着的核心。后续咱们不用慌着追热点，多看看这些长期资金的动向，比啥 都靠谱——毕竟做投资这事儿，稳着来才能走得远。 说具体点，9月净流入中国股市的外资到了46亿美元，这数可不是随便来的，是打去年11月以来单月最高。不过这里头得掰开揉碎了说：主要是被动型基 金"拎包猛冲"，一下就砸了52亿；反观主动型基金，倒小幅流出6亿，算是个小插曲，不算大问题。 还有个有意思的细节，之前7月中旬开始，是美国基金带头往咱们这儿冲，到了9月，连欧盟的被动基金也跟上了节奏。咱们再算笔实在账，截至9月底，今 年外资被动型基金累计流入已经180亿美元，早把去年全年70亿的数甩在身后了，这劲头看得出来是真认咱们市场。 当然，大伙儿最关心的肯定是"外资在买啥、卖啥"。帮主我特意盯了主动基金的动向：他们增持最多的是资本货物和半导体，看来对硬科技这条赛道，机构 心里门儿清；减持的则是保险、耐用消费品和服装这些板块。个股上也挺明确， ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated a total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, with the latest batch being 69 billion yuan [1][2] - The government aims to boost consumption as a primary task this year, with the "old-for-new" policy playing a significant role in this initiative [2][3] - From January to August, 330 million people have claimed subsidies under the "old-for-new" policy, leading to over 2 trillion yuan in related sales, contributing to a 4.6% year-on-year growth in total retail sales of consumer goods [5][6] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that future consumption policies may expand the scope of subsidies from durable goods to general consumer goods and services [5] - The government has also introduced new policies to support service consumption, with 19 measures aimed at enhancing service supply in various sectors [6] - The expected growth rate of retail sales is projected to reach 4.5% this year, reflecting a 1.0 percentage point acceleration compared to the previous year [6]

- The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index is constructed using the Paasche weighted method and is calculated daily on a chained basis[3][11][39] - The index selects stocks from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that meet specific criteria, such as being involved in consumer-related industries (e.g., apparel, jewelry, home appliances, food and beverages) and having mutual market access qualifications[43] - The index excludes stocks with abnormal price fluctuations, significant financial issues, or major operational problems in the past year[43] - The index selects the top 50 stocks based on the highest average daily market capitalization over the past year, after removing the bottom 10% in terms of average daily trading volume[43] - The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index has a cumulative return of 24.22% since its base date (December 31, 2014) as of September 16, 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Equal Weight Index (-7.82%) and the Hang Seng Index (12.00%)[71] - The index's PE (TTM) ratio is 19.30 as of September 16, 2025, which is lower than 80.88% of the time since its launch on April 11, 2022, indicating a relatively undervalued state[75][77]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the stock market after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts is heavily dependent on whether the economy enters a recession, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator for determining the economic trajectory [1][3]. Economic Conditions - Historical data shows that in the past fifty years, there have been seven instances where the Fed resumed rate cuts after a significant pause. Out of these, four were accompanied by economic recessions, while three saw continued economic expansion, leading to vastly different stock market performances [1][7]. - In scenarios without a recession, the MSCI World Index showed average performance increases of 1%, 2%, 8%, and 17% over 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months respectively after rate cuts. In contrast, during recessionary periods, the average performance was -2%, 2%, 0%, and 6% [7][10]. Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate is highlighted as a critical variable for distinguishing between recession and economic expansion. During recessions, the unemployment rate tends to rise for nearly a year after rate cuts, accumulating an increase of 2-3 percentage points. Conversely, in expanding economies, the unemployment rate only sees a slight increase before declining within a few quarters [3][14][17]. Market Expectations - Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, which is a significant factor driving market expectations for the Fed to resume rate cuts. Barclays economists predict that the Fed may lower the federal funds rate to 3.0% by the end of 2026 as the labor market slows [17]. Yield Curve and Sector Performance - The shape of the yield curve significantly influences sector performance. Historically, a flattening yield curve during bull markets is most favorable for the stock market, while cyclical sectors perform best during steepening phases in bear markets [6][20]. - In the absence of a recession, the yield curve tends to steepen moderately after rate cuts, while in recession scenarios, it initially steepens before flattening out, transitioning to a steepening phase again as the economy recovers [20][24].

Core Insights - Croatia's industrial output experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.9% in July, marking the first decrease after seven consecutive months of growth [1] Group 1: Industrial Performance - Three out of five sectors reported a decline: durable consumer goods production fell by 11.8%, energy production decreased by 10.2%, and non-durable consumer goods dropped by 1.3% [1] - In contrast, the production of intermediate goods increased by 5.4%, and capital goods production rose by 3.0% [1]

Group 1 - A-shares show resilience with notable performance in the midstream and technology sectors, as the overall revenue growth for A-shares turned positive in 2025H1, with cumulative year-on-year revenue growth of 0.2% for all A-shares and 0.2% for non-financial A-shares [15][33][76] - The profit growth for A-shares in 2025H1 has slowed but remains positive, with cumulative year-on-year net profit growth of 2.6% for all A-shares and 2.8% for non-financial A-shares, reflecting a slight decline compared to 2025Q1 [33][43][76] - The midstream sector's performance has improved significantly, with a profit growth rate of 11.3% in 2025H1, while the technology sector maintained a high profit growth rate of 17.1% [2][43][44] Group 2 - The return on equity (ROE) for all non-financial A-shares has slightly rebounded, with a TTM ROE of 7.5% in 2025Q2, showing a minor increase from 7.4% in 2025Q1 [48][56] - The midstream and technology sectors have shown significant ROE recovery, with midstream ROE at 4.8% and technology ROE at 6.4% in 2025Q2, indicating improvements from the previous quarter [58][66] - Industries such as food and beverage, home appliances, and non-ferrous metals have demonstrated notable ROE improvements, with food and beverage ROE reaching 20.9% in 2025Q2 [67][70] Group 3 - Hong Kong stocks have maintained stable performance, with non-financial profit growth slightly improving in 2025H1, and the Hang Seng Technology Index showing a high profit growth rate of 20.8% [4][5][32] - The profit growth for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Non-Financial Index in 2025H1 was 2.5% and 4.0%, respectively, indicating a recovery compared to 2024H2 [4][5][27] - The sectors with higher profitability in Hong Kong include durable consumer goods, building materials, media, and hardware equipment, with significant improvements in net profit growth and ROE in 2025H1 [5][32][37]

Core Viewpoint - A-share companies are currently experiencing a bottoming out in profitability, with a notable structural divergence in performance across sectors [2][3] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - A-share companies' total revenue growth for the first half of the year is -0.02%, while non-financial enterprises show a decline of -0.53% year-on-year, indicating a slight improvement compared to the first quarter [2] - Net profit growth for A-share companies is 2.42%, and for non-financial enterprises, it is 0.98%, both showing a decline from the first quarter [2] - The second quarter's net profit growth for non-financial enterprises reached a seasonal low since 2010, primarily driven by financial companies [2] - Return on Equity (ROE) for A-share companies is 7.76%, and for non-financial enterprises, it is 6.55%, both down from the previous quarter [2] - Cash flow analysis shows that while net cash flow remains negative, operational, investment, and financing cash flows have improved, with non-financial real estate companies maintaining high free cash flow levels, indicating strong potential for dividends [2] Structural Performance - High-tech and overseas-oriented companies are performing well, while domestic consumption sectors are still recovering [3] - The net profit growth for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board exceeded 20% in the second quarter, leading the market, with significant contributions from the AI, semiconductor, and innovative pharmaceutical sectors [3] - Companies focused on overseas markets, as indicated by the Outbound 50 Index, reported a revenue growth of 12% and a 0.6% increase in ROE, outperforming the overall market [3] - Companies with over 10% of revenue from overseas markets are seeing a recovery in profit margins and ROE, making overseas business a key growth driver [3] - In contrast, domestic consumer goods sectors have shown a significant decline in growth rates compared to the first quarter, indicating a need for recovery in domestic consumption [3] - Overall, A-share companies' profitability is gradually solidifying, with innovation and overseas expansion becoming new growth points [3]

Group 1 - Shandong listed companies reported strong financial performance in the first half of the year, with 309 A-share companies generating over 1.48 trillion yuan in revenue and 258 reporting profits [1] - The province is witnessing rapid growth in sectors such as AI computing power, green energy, advanced materials, life sciences digitization, and low-altitude economy, becoming a new engine for economic development [1] - Shandong High-speed Group is actively investing in new energy, smart transportation, and computing infrastructure, establishing a "green electricity + computing" ecosystem through its subsidiary, Shandong High Control [1] Group 2 - Shandong High Control achieved a revenue of 2.503 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with 96% of this revenue coming from emerging industries, and a net profit of 476 million yuan, a 506% year-on-year increase [1] - Other companies in the AI computing sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang, reported significant growth, with a net profit of 3.995 billion yuan, a 69.4% increase year-on-year [2] - The chemical industry in Shandong, despite facing cyclical challenges, saw companies like Wanhua Chemical achieving revenues of 90.901 billion yuan and net profits of 6.123 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - The durable consumer goods sector, represented by Haier Smart Home, reported revenues of 156.49 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase, and a net profit of 12.03 billion yuan, a 15.6% increase [3] - The mechanical manufacturing sector, exemplified by Weichai Power, generated a net profit of 5.643 billion yuan in a challenging market environment [3] - The development trajectory of Shandong listed companies offers replicable and referenceable strategies for high-quality regional economic development [4]