海外行业报告 | 行业动态研究 港股周报（2025.08.18-2025.08.22） 证券研究报告 DeepSeek 发布 V3.1 模型，看好港股 AI 方向机会 本周恒生指数上涨 0.27%，成交量 1.4 万亿元，恒生科技指数上涨 1.89%，恒生港股通指数上涨 0.63%， 恒生中国企业指数上涨 0.45%。本周港股通净买入 165.1 亿元，年初至今净买入 8910.9 亿元，相当 于 2024 年全年净买入的 119.8%。南向资金重点加仓腾讯、美团、阿里巴巴。 分板块看，周涨幅前二的板块为耐用消费品和半导体，周涨幅分别为 15.6%和 6.2%，耐用消费品涨 幅主要由于最大权重股泡泡玛特上涨（周涨幅 18.1%）驱动，半导体板块情绪受益于 deepSeek 新模 型发布且使用了 UE8M0 FP8 参数精度，针对下一代国产芯片设计，板块涨幅主要由于前二大权重 股中芯国际上涨（周涨幅 7.9%）和华虹半导体（周涨幅 9.2%）和驱动。其他涨幅板块包括造纸与包 装（+5.7%）、汽车与零配件（5.4%）、纺织服装（4.%）、机械（3.1%）等。 AI 方面，1）DeepSeek：发布 DeepSe ...

策略研究 · 周度报告 港股三大指数涨幅分化明显，场内热点快速轮动 2025 年 08 月 24 日 核心观点： 分析师 杨超 ：010-8092-7696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 周美丽 ：zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 相关研究 | 2025-06-27，2025 年大类资产中期投资展望：驭变谋 | | --- | | 势 | | 2025-06-22，2025 年港股中期投资展望：时移世易， | | 见机而作 | | 2025-06-21，2025 年 A 股中期投资展望：筑基行稳， | | 重塑鼎新 | | 2025-06-10，稳定币概念股投资展望 | | 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化？ | | 2025-05-07，关键时间节点的发布会：一揽子金融政策 | | 稳市场稳预期 | | 2025-04-25，4 月中央政治局会议解读： "持续稳定和 | | 活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面？ | | 2025-04-23，公募 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 22.04 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing accelerated revenue growth, with expectations for profit improvement in the second half of the year [2]. - The unique UDM model supports high-end manufacturing R&D capabilities, and the business expansion in high-growth sectors is promising [10]. - The company has adjusted its profit expectations for 2025-2026 and introduced a new profit forecast for 2027, estimating EPS of 0.38, 0.44, and 0.69 CNY for 2025-2027 respectively [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 3,860 million CNY in 2023 to 3,567 million CNY in 2025, before increasing to 5,682 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 26.0% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 451 million CNY in 2023 to 252 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 536 million CNY in 2027, indicating a significant growth of 56.6% [3]. - The company's gross profit margin is forecasted to decline to 27.6% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 8.6% [11]. Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, revenue from innovative consumer electronics products increased by 41.86%, while automotive electronics and health environment segments also showed positive growth [10]. - The company is focusing on deepening its large customer strategy and enhancing its competitive advantages in smart manufacturing and internationalization [10]. - The sales gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 27.1%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to currency fluctuations and increased competition in the automotive electronics market [10]. International Expansion - The company is accelerating its internationalization process, leveraging its early advantages to enhance global operations and meet diverse customer needs [10].

Group 1: Consumption Promotion Policies - The kindergarten fee exemption policy will benefit approximately 12 million people, reducing household expenditures by about 40 billion annually[3] - The pension increase in 2025 will be 2%, affecting around 147 million urban retirees, with a total impact of approximately 135.3 billion[4] - The consumption loan interest subsidy policy, with a reference interest subsidy rate of about 1.5%, has shown improved growth in consumer loans in the first month of implementation[5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Impact - The consumption goods replacement program has benefited 280 million people, driving sales exceeding 1.6 trillion, surpassing the total for 2024[6] - The summer consumption season activities organized by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism will include over 43,000 events, distributing more than 570 million in consumer subsidies[9] - The expected annual consumption increase from the kindergarten fee exemption is estimated at 272 billion, accounting for 0.06% of the projected 48.8 trillion in retail sales for 2024[3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed a positive trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.43%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.17%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 1.03% during the week from August 4 to August 8 [2][4]. - All 11 sectors in the Hong Kong stock market experienced gains, with materials, information technology, and energy sectors leading the way, increasing by 9.82%, 3.21%, and 3.13% respectively [5][10]. - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 226.55 billion, a decrease of HKD 56.19 billion from the previous week, while the average short-selling amount was HKD 27.72 billion, down by HKD 3.11 billion [12][18]. Group 2 - As of August 8, the price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 11.33 times and 1.18 times, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.84% and 1.87% from the previous week, placing them at the 84% and 83% percentile levels since 2019 [18][20]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.56%, which is at the 8% percentile level since 2010, while the risk premium relative to the 10-year Chinese government bond yield was 7.14%, at the 61% percentile level since 2010 [20][25]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors that may benefit from favorable policies or have shown better-than-expected mid-year performance, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, AI industry chains, and sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend [39].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July decreased by 0.4 points to 49.3, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the overall economic sentiment showed slight improvement with an increase in the number of expanding industries from 6 to 7, suggesting that economic conditions are influenced by both quantity and price factors [1][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In July, industries showing improvement were primarily in two categories: midstream equipment manufacturing and certain raw material sectors, including general and specialized equipment, electrical machinery, and metal products, likely linked to the release of the 2025 "Two Heavy" construction projects and central budget investments [7][10]. - The producer price index for black metals, non-ferrous metals, and non-metallic minerals increased by 80.1, 13.4, and 12.7 points respectively in July, reflecting a positive price trend in these sectors [7][8]. - The number of industries in the expansion zone increased to 7, with notable improvements in specialized equipment (up 1.6 points), general equipment (up 14.8 points), and electrical machinery (up 1.9 points) [7][10]. Group 2: Declining Industries - The industries experiencing significant downturns included durable consumer goods related to "trade-in" programs, export-dependent sectors, and the petrochemical industry, with automotive and computer communication electronics seeing declines of 7.0 and 3.7 points respectively [10][11]. - Export orders for automotive, textiles, and chemical industries showed notable declines, with the automotive sector's export orders dropping by 10.6 points [11][10]. - The petrochemical sector's sentiment decreased by 9.8 points in July, correlating with a drop in international crude oil prices after a peak in mid-June [10][11]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The new materials industry has maintained a leading sentiment for three consecutive months, with a 0.4 point increase in July, remaining above the 50 mark, indicating robust growth driven by connections to upstream sectors like new energy and robotics [17][18]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and energy-saving industries showed resilience, remaining above seasonal averages, while the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors experienced declines [17][18]. - The sentiment in the new materials sector is supported by rapid internal growth and large-scale equipment updates, while the new energy vehicle sector faces production constraints due to industry "anti-involution" policies [17][18]. Group 4: Construction and Service Industries - In July, the construction sector saw a decline in outdoor construction activities due to adverse weather conditions, with residential construction sentiment dropping by 4.7 points, which is greater than the seasonal average decline [18][20]. - The service sector's operating conditions slightly decreased by 0.1 points in July, with high sentiment in travel-related industries such as aviation and dining, which saw significant increases [23][24]. - The overall service sector sentiment remains relatively high, with cultural and sports entertainment sectors exceeding 60 points, indicating a vibrant market [23][24].

Core Conclusions - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector has shown impressive performance in the first half of the year, but has entered a phase of digestion and volatility since mid-June [1][8] - The macro logic supporting the new consumption trend is based on the historical shift in consumer behavior observed in Japan, where consumption has transitioned from mass-market to personalized and rational consumption [1][20] - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong exhibits higher growth potential compared to the A-share market, driven by evolving consumer concepts and demographic changes [1][30] Current Phase of New Consumption - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is currently experiencing a phase of heat digestion, following a significant rise in the first half of the year, with notable stocks like Pop Mart, Old Puhuang, and Mixue Group seeing an average price increase of 247% [8][9] - The shift in consumer focus towards experience and participation, characterized by "self-consumption" and "social consumption," has led to a surge in popularity for categories such as trendy toys, tea drinks, and luxury jewelry [8][9] - Since mid-June, the new consumption stocks have faced a correction, with the average decline of the "three golden flowers" reaching 25% [9][17] Mid-term Support for New Consumption - Despite the recent volatility, the report suggests that the macroeconomic logic supporting the new consumption trend remains intact, with historical parallels drawn from Japan's consumption evolution [20][22] - The report references Maslow's hierarchy of needs, indicating that as income rises, consumer demand is shifting from material to spiritual needs, reflecting a broader trend towards personalized and rational consumption [20][30] - The ongoing demographic changes and the evolution of consumer concepts in China are expected to sustain the growth of the new consumption sector in the long term [30][31] Advantages of Hong Kong's New Consumption Assets - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is characterized by a higher proportion of innovative consumption compared to the A-share market, which is dominated by traditional sectors like liquor and home appliances [33][35] - The financial performance of Hong Kong's new consumption stocks is robust, with projected revenue growth of 54% for key players in 2024, significantly outpacing the A-share market [35][39] - The report anticipates continued inflows into Hong Kong's new consumption sector from public funds, with an estimated total inflow of 300 to 450 billion yuan expected in 2025 [35][41] Future Trends and Opportunities - The report identifies several emerging trends in consumer behavior, including the rise of the Z generation, single households, and the aging population, which are driving demand for personalized and emotional consumption experiences [31][47] - The pet economy is highlighted as a rapidly growing sector, with a projected market size of 811.4 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing emotional needs among consumers [47][54] - The report emphasizes that policy support for consumption is likely to enhance consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the areas of self-consumption and value-for-money products [47][48]

金融界8月1日消息，上证指数下跌0.37%，沪深300耐用消费品指数 (300耐用消费品，L11623)报 15239.70点。 从沪深300耐用消费品指数持仓样本的行业来看，白色家电占比84.57%、家电零部件及其他占比 9.48%、小家电占比4.72%、家具占比1.24%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。遇临时调整时，当沪深300指数调整样本时，沪深300行业指数样本 随之进行相应调整。在样本公司有特殊事件发生，导致其行业归属发生变更时，将对沪深300行业指数 样本进行相应调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的 处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 据了解，为反映沪深300指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将沪深300 指数300只样本按行业分类标准分为11个一级行业、35个二级行业、90余个三级行业及200余个四级行 业。沪深300行业指数系列分别以进入各一级 ...

Group 1 - The core index of the China Securities Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect leisure consumption theme is reported at 1223.40 points, with a monthly increase of 1.87%, a three-month increase of 17.74%, and a year-to-date increase of 19.70% [1] - The index consists of 40 listed companies involved in the leisure consumption industry, reflecting the overall performance of these companies within the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 30, 2016, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted companies in the index include Yum China (10.65%), Pop Mart (9.78%), Anta Sports (9.59%), Meituan-W (8.81%), Shenzhou International (7.05%), Li Ning (5.81%), Haidilao (4.32%), Tongcheng Travel (4.18%), Mixue Group (3.03%), and Samsonite (2.97%) [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry composition, consumer services account for 37.02%, textiles, apparel, and jewelry for 36.42%, durable goods for 18.18%, media for 5.55%, and retail for 2.84% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Special circumstances may lead to temporary adjustments of the index, including the removal of companies that are delisted or undergo significant corporate changes [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to gain momentum with accelerated rotation of market hotspots, as evidenced by the performance of major indices [1][2] - For the week of July 14 to July 18, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.84%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 5.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed by 3.44% [2][4] - Among the ten sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, all but the real estate sector saw gains, with healthcare, information technology, and consumer staples leading the way with increases of 9.52%, 4.16%, and 3.92% respectively [2][7] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the week was HKD 246.725 billion, an increase of HKD 4.213 billion from the previous week [2][13] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 21.456 billion, which is a decrease of HKD 4.899 billion compared to the previous week [2][13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index as of July 18 were 11.04 and 1.16, respectively, both of which are at the 81% and 82% percentile levels since 2019 [2][18] Group 3 - The report highlights that the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively low compared to global equity markets, with the Hang Seng Index's risk premium at 4.62%, which is at the 8% percentile since 2010 [2][20] - The report suggests that sectors benefiting from favorable policies, such as stablecoin concept stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI industry chains, and "anti-involution" industries, should be closely monitored [2][37] - The performance of companies exceeding expectations in their mid-year reports is expected to rebound, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][38]