Group 1: Event Overview - The "Breaking Waves: Eurasia - Consumer and Market Insights Seminar" hosted by NielsenIQ (NIQ) focused on market trends in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, discussing consumer behavior insights, market entry strategies, and brand internationalization strategies to aid companies in overseas expansion [1] - The seminar attracted nearly 100 senior executives from Chinese enterprises and included representatives from the Ministry of Commerce, the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Foodstuffs, and the Investment Promotion Service Center of Chaoyang District, Beijing [1] Group 2: Market Insights - NIQ's data indicated a 2.9% growth in global fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales as of March 2025, with Europe accounting for 36% and Asia-Pacific for 17% of the global market [2] - The European market is characterized by increased price sensitivity among consumers and a growing demand for sustainable and health-oriented products, with significant growth potential in Eastern Europe and expansion opportunities in Western Europe [2][3] Group 3: Brand Strategies - Chinese brands are gaining a foothold in the technology and durable goods sectors by offering competitively priced and high-performance products, particularly in smart home ecosystems [3] - NIQ emphasized the need for brands to adapt to local cultures and innovate to capture consumer mindshare when entering international markets, particularly targeting the X generation through omnichannel marketing and personalized experiences [4] Group 4: Internationalization of Chinese Brands - Successful case studies of Chinese brands include Huaxizi, which achieved premium positioning through cultural elements, and Bawang Tea, which met European consumer needs through functional innovation [5] - NIQ highlighted the importance of transitioning from product advantages to model advantages for Chinese brands, focusing on supply chain optimization and localized operations for rapid market expansion [5] Group 5: Future Trends and Opportunities - NIQ's latest market monitoring data revealed that emerging consumer trends and digital transformation are driving the global FMCG market's expansion, with cross-border e-commerce channels growing at an annual rate of 28% [6] - NIQ aims to support Chinese brands in accurately understanding different market dynamics and building global competitiveness, facilitating the transition from "Made in China" to "Global Brand" [6]

关税预计将推高价格、减缓增长，而不确定的政策前景也成为企业推迟决策的一个拖累因素。Chase Investment Counsel总裁Peter Tuz表示，尽管贸易谈判仍在进行，关税可能仍会是许多公司在财报电话会 议上的一个话题。 高盛美国股票首席策略师David Kostin及其团队表示，高关税尚未对销售预测或企业支出计划在整体指 数层面上造成压力。不过，他们指出，如果企业被迫自行承担关税成本，则部分企业利润率面临风险。 该行经济学家预计，消费者将承担70%的直接关税成本。 值得一提的是，在4月初经历大幅下调后，标普500指数第二季度的盈利增长预测近几周趋于稳定。Sean Simonds及其他瑞银股票策略师在一份报告中写道，最初的负面盈利修正出现在特朗普4月初所谓"解放 日"宣布征收对等关税之后，而对汽车、运输和耐用消费品等受关税影响的行业的预期仍远低于4月水 平。 智通财经APP获悉，在美股第二季度财报季即将拉开帷幕之际，投资者正在寻找美国总统特朗普发起的 贸易战对企业产生影响的迹象。LSEG数据显示，分析师预测标普500指数第二季度盈利将同比增长 5.8%，相比第一季度的13.7%显著下降。尽管预计盈 ...

Group 1: CPI Marginal Improvement - In June, the CPI showed a marginal improvement with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing a three-month trend of -0.1%, primarily driven by rising domestic fuel prices and a rebound in durable goods prices [2] - Food prices performed better than seasonal averages, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to a historical average decline of -3.9% [2] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in June, recovering from a previous decline of -1.7%, influenced by rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [2][3] Group 2: PPI Continued Pressure - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, the largest drop since August 2023 [4] - The decline in production material prices was a significant factor, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, compared to a historical average of -0.1% [4] - Life goods prices remained sluggish, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, reflecting weak seasonal performance [4] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - CPI is expected to show a mild recovery, with an annual increase projected around 0%, higher than the first half's average of -0.1% [5] - Core CPI is anticipated to rise by approximately 0.6% for the year, supported by policies aimed at improving supply-demand structures [6] - PPI is expected to remain under pressure, with an annual decline projected at around -2.3%, an improvement from the first half's -2.8% [6] Group 4: International and Domestic Commodity Trends - Internationally, commodity prices are expected to show increased divergence and reduced volatility, with oil prices likely to continue declining due to OPEC+ production increases and weakening global demand [7] - Domestically, weak internal demand persists, particularly in real estate and infrastructure investments, which are not expected to drive resource prices upward [7] - The manufacturing sector is facing challenges with low capacity utilization, indicating a phase of oversupply in certain industries [7]

金十数据7月9日讯，6月份，工业生产者出厂价格中，生产资料价格下降4.4%，影响工业生产者出厂价 格总水平下降约3.26个百分点。其中，采掘工业价格下降13.2%，原材料工业价格下降5.5%，加工工业 价格下降3.2%。生活资料价格下降1.4%，影响工业生产者出厂价格总水平下降约0.35个百分点。其中， 食品价格下降2.0%，衣着价格上涨0.1%，一般日用品价格上涨0.8%，耐用消费品价格下降2.7%。 国家统计局：6月份采掘工业价格同比下降13.2% ...

证券研究报告 策略 还有哪些行业兼具高景气和性价比？ 2025 年 7 月 06 日│中国内地 策略周报 配置：近期金融及必需消费，中期服务消费、软件及科技硬件 港股市场三季度波动加大，反而提供配置窗口。近期可关注更具性价比和安 全边际的行业如食品饮料、家庭个护及金融，中期景气改善催化的服务消费 （旅游、茶饮、餐饮等）、耐用消费（潮玩、黄金珠宝、服饰等）、科技硬 件、软件服务（云、AI 应用、媒体）仍有配置价值。 中国资产重估受景气支撑，流动性宽松放大重估弹性 2025 年，中国上市企业 EPS 连续第三年上升。EPS 是衡量股权投资回报 的核心指标。MSCI 中国指数 EPS 在 2002~2014 年间年复合增长率 15.7%， 但 2015~2022 年间年复合增长率只有-2.94%。2002~2014 年间，MSCI 中 国指数 ROE 均值 15.4%，2015~2022 年间趋势性降至 10%左右。过去数 年上市公司并未实现每股收益增长，就不难解释为什么指数中枢很难抬升； 但一旦出现阶段性 EPS 预期改善，市场就容易快速反弹，如 2017 年和 2020~2021 年。2023 年以来，ROE ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 01 日 美国 Q2 或进入主动去库 —2025 年 4 月美国行业库存数据点评 频率：每月 事件：2025 年 7 月 1 日，BEA 发布 2025 年 4 月美国分行业库存和销售数 据。4 月美国库存总额同比 3.37%，前值 3.43%；4 月销售总额同比 3.74%， 前值 4.04%。4 月数据显示美国库存周期初步向主动去库切换。美国本应于去 年底到今年初进入主动去库阶段，但美国关税预期推动"抢进口"，且工业品 （上游为主）和消费品（汽车除外）抢进口明显超出季节性、或透支未来需 求。往后看，尽管关税因素仍有不确定性，但补库透支下美国库存周期或于 Q2 向主动去库存靠拢。 1）石油、天然气与消费用燃料：23 年 7 月-24 年 5 月处于主动补库，24 年 6 月进入主动去库，截至 25 年 4 月处于主动去库。 2）化学制品：24 年 8 月-25 年 3 月处于被动补库，25 年 4 月或进入主动 去库。 3）建筑材料：24 年 2-9 月处于主动补库，24 年 10 月进入被动补库，截 至 25 年 4 月处于被动补库。 4）金属和采矿 ...

与此同时，《意见》支持扩大耐用消费品融资、绿色家电替换消费、以旧换新信贷工具等，直面居 民"买得起、换得掉、用得好"的需求升级趋势，在绿色消费、智能消费等新赛道培育新的增长极。 推动金融促消费，不能仅停留在政策文件层面，更要在落地执行上敢于破题、勇于创新。当前，不少金 融机构仍在传统信贷逻辑中观望，面对新型消费业态，缺乏风险评估模型与服务经验，导致部分中小企 业"融资难、融资贵"问题依旧存在。 因此，落实《意见》的重点之一，就是加强金融供给侧改革，提高金融资源配置的精准性、普惠性和协 同性。一方面，要提升对新兴消费产业链的金融理解力，建立专门风控机制，发展"数据信用+消费金 融+供应链金融"融合模式；另一方面，应依托金融科技，推动"场景化金融"建设，增强用户体验和服务 触达能力，实现"嵌入式""便捷化"消费支持。 特别是在信用消费体系建设方面，应在确保风险可控的基础上，推动个人信用贷款、消费分期、小微创 业信贷等更加普惠发展，为扩大中低收入群体消费提供实际支撑，从而形成"消费带动供给、供给激发 信贷、信贷反哺消费"的良性循环。 近期，中国人民银行、国家发改委、财政部、商务部、金融监管总局、中国证监会等六部门联 ...

随着风险偏好回升，A股主要股指强势反弹，资金纷纷借道ETF入市，据交易所数据显示，截至6月27日，境内ETF总规模突破4.3万亿元，创下历史新高， 年内涨幅已达15%。 其中宽基ETF表现突出，中证A500指数上周上涨2.43%，吸引资金积极布局，根据WIND数据显示，华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF（563360）在上周短短5个交易日 里获资金净流入112.79亿元，日均成交额高达25.5亿元，交投显著活跃。 截至6月27日，华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF（563360）规模突破200亿元大关，以202.56亿元跃居同类产品之首，而其份额同时达到198.98亿份，位居同类产品之 首。另外值得关注的是，在今年A500ETF产品份额普遍减少的背景下，华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF（563360）份额却实现大幅增长，年内份额增加26.13亿份， 年初至今份额变动率达到15.12%。 | | 序号 代码 | | | 现价 | 换手率 5日涨跌幅 | 年初至今 基金份额 | | 规 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 563360 | 宽 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revenue growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size has shown fluctuations, with a significant decline in profit margins, indicating a challenging economic environment and potential investment risks [1][9][10]. Revenue Growth - In the first five months of the year, the cumulative revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises was 2.7%, down from 3.2% in the previous period, with May's month-on-month growth dropping to 0.8% [7][8][10]. - The revenue growth experienced a rebound in January and February, followed by a decline in April and May, reflecting a typical economic nominal growth pattern with insufficient growth momentum [1][7]. Profit Margins - The profit margin change was more pronounced than revenue, with May's profit declining by 9.1%, the lowest since October of the previous year, leading to a cumulative profit decline of 1.1% for the first five months [9][10][11]. - The profit growth rate turned negative again in May after briefly turning positive in March, indicating a volatile profit environment [9][10]. Industry Performance Fastest Growing Industries - Equipment manufacturing, particularly in transportation equipment (56%), general equipment (10.6%), and specialized equipment (7.1%), showed significant profit growth [15][16]. - The aerospace sector, including aircraft manufacturing (120.7%) and related equipment, also reported high profit growth rates [15][16]. - Non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries saw profit increases of 41.7% and 9.8%, respectively, likely due to rising upstream prices and demand from emerging industries [15][16]. Slowest Growing Industries - The upstream mining sector, textile and apparel industries, and durable consumer goods (automobiles and furniture) experienced the lowest profit growth rates, with coal profits down by 50.6% and automotive profits down by 11.9% [19][20]. - The decline in profits for these sectors is attributed to falling commodity prices and weak domestic demand [19][20]. Profit Structure - The profit structure remains concentrated in midstream manufacturing, with equipment manufacturing accounting for 33.4% of incremental profits, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous year [20][24]. - Public utilities and raw materials industries also saw profit shares increase, indicating a shift in profit distribution within the industrial sector [20][24]. Inventory and Debt - As of the end of May, nominal inventory showed a slight decrease, while actual inventory rose by 6.8%, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [28]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises was 57.7%, with a slight increase year-on-year, reflecting a cautious approach to capital expenditure amid weak demand [30].

新华财经北京6月27日电 2025年4月，加拿大实际国内生产总值（GDP）环比下降0.1%，结束了3月的增 长趋势。其中，商品生产行业整体下滑0.6%，尤其是制造业成为主要拖累因素，环比大幅下降1.9%。 耐用消费品和非耐用消费品制造分别下降2.2%和1.6%，反映出关税不确定性对运输设备制造以及食品 和石油产业的负面影响。 与此同时，服务生产行业微增0.1%，公共管理、金融保险和艺术娱乐等领域贡献了增长。值得注意的 是，金融和保险行业增长达到0.7%，创下自2024年8月以来的最大增幅，得益于美股关税公告引发的高 频交易活动。此外，艺术、娱乐和休闲行业也实现了2.8%的增长，这主要是由于加拿大NHL球队季后 赛入场率的提升所致。 图为：加拿大4月实际国内生产总值小幅下滑来源：加拿大统计局 图为：加拿大4月份各主要工业部门对国内生产总值百分比变化的贡献来源：加拿大统计局 尽管如此，批发贸易行业下滑1.9%，机动车及零部件批发因进出口减少而受到严重打击。资源行业方 面，虽然油气提取子行业受天然气和原油产量下降影响，但油气支持活动因钻井活动增加而有所上升。 展望未来，5月的实际GDP预计将继续下降0.1%，显示出 ...