The market response to the United States’ and Israel’s military strikes against Iran has been global and almost universally negative. Stocks began slumping as early as Friday in a “risk-off” response as word of impending action spread. By Monday, major indexes in Asia and Europe were off by nearly 1% or more, relative to Friday's close. Oil prices rose. The killing of the Middle Eastern nation’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, added extra uncertainty to the already volatile situation.Key questions remain, inc ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 02 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年03月02日 华源晨会精粹 20260302 固定收益/银行 跨春节已过，长债或是机会——利率半月报：26 年 1 月债券总托管 规模环比上升 0.76 万亿元至 179.3 万亿元，较 25 年 12 月多增 0.46 万亿元。2 月 底长债有所回调，或主要系上海房地产政策放松引发券商及基金等交易盘止盈，我 们认为，交易盘止盈或是机会，情绪企稳后长债收益率有望再度回落。春节假日 9 天，全国国内出游 5.96 亿人次，较 25 年春节假日 8 天增加 0.95 亿人次；国内出游 总花费 8034.83 亿元，较 25 年+1264.81 亿元。美国和以色列 2 月 28 日对伊朗发动 军事打击，伊朗予以回击。国债收益率近一周多数上行。长债调整或是机会。近期 人民币明显升值，2 月初以来，美英德等发达国家 10Y 国债收益率下行较明显，美 10Y 国债收益率 2 月 27 日已跌破 4.0%，对中国债市构成利好。当前交易盘长债持 仓仍较少，PPI 同比回升为市场普遍预期，长 ...

宏 2026 年 3 月 2 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国宏观周报（2026 年 2 月第 4 周） 部分工业品生产恢复 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 周 报 观 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，春节假期结束后，本周部分工业品生产恢复，工业品价 格指数也有提升。年初以来新房销售温和恢复，二手房挂牌价逐步止跌； 同时，外贸港口吞吐量及韩国出口数据表现亮眼，体现外需韧性增强。 1. 工业：部分工业品春节后生产恢复。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、 浮法玻璃开工率、部分化工品开工率，以及主要钢材品种表观需求环比提 升；水泥熟料产能利用率、石油沥青开工率环比回落。2）中下游方面，本 周纺织聚酯开工率环比提升，织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工 率、全钢胎开工率环比反弹。 2. 地产：新房销售温和修复。1）销售方面，年初以来（截至 2 月 27 日）， 30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-24.6%，较去年 ...

行业研究 2、VLCC 现货运价冲高至 20 万，期租租金涨至 10 万。本周克拉克森 VLCC- TCE 指数 20.0 万美元，周环比+40.1%；其中，中东-中国航线报于 22.3 万美 元/天，周环比+42%；西非-中国航线报于 18.4 万美元/天，周环比+39%；美湾 -中国航线报于 13.3 万美元/天，周环比+35%。一年期 VLCC 期租价格也继续 涨至 10 万美元/天，周环比+9%。 3、投资建议：此前报告我们提出，三大因素致 VLCC 市场正面临近乎空前的 高涨情绪：1）美伊冲突局势骤然升级，或推升航运资产风险溢价；2）长锦大 举"扫货"，一跃成为全球最大 VLCC 经营商，显著提振市场情绪与信心，船 东集中度提升有望增强议价能力；3）委内瑞拉原油转向合规市场、印度承诺 停止购买俄油、欧盟提议对俄实施全面海上服务禁令，制裁强化增加合规贸易 需求。我们继续强调年度策略观点，看好油运市场上行景气，行业供给端持续 真空（今年少量 VLCC 交付的影响有限），需求催化仍待兑现，运价上涨弹性 充分，继续推荐油轮板块，中远海能 H/A、招商轮船、招商南油。 （二）快递：反内卷延续，行业件量增速好于 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 一、聚焦：美伊冲突推升航运资产风险溢价，快递反内卷延续 （一）油运：美伊冲突局势骤然升级，助推航运资产风险溢价 1、美伊冲突局势升级，霍尔木兹海峡或成为全球能源和航运市场关注的焦点。 克拉克森研究统计，全球约 11%的海运贸易量需经由霍尔木兹海峡，其中包括 34%的石油出口、30%的 LPG 出口、20%的 LNG 贸易、18%的化学品贸易 和 7%的汽车贸易，集装箱和干散货贸易占比分别为 3%和 2%。若其运输关 闭或中断将对全球能源和航运市场产生重大影响，例如导致能源价格飙升，海 运贸易结构和贸易流向潜在改变。 2、VLCC 现货运价冲高至 20 万，期租租金涨至 10 万。本周克拉克森 VLCC- TCE 指数 20.0 万美元，周环比+40.1%；其中，中东-中国航线报于 22.3 万美 元/天，周环比+42%；西非-中国航线报于 18.4 万美元/天，周环比+39%；美湾 -中国航线报于 13.3 万美元/天，周环比+35%。一年期 VLCC 期租价格也继续 涨至 10 万美元/天，周环比+9%。 3、投资建议：此前报告我们提出，三大因素致 VLCC 市场正面临近乎 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The military strike by the US against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have profound impacts on the global oil transportation market, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and increased oil transportation costs [3][15] - Tesla's Cybercab, designed for fully autonomous driving, has been launched, marking a significant step towards the original dedicated era of Robotaxi services [3][17] - A strategic partnership between Youjia Innovation, Didi, and Wall Street Technology aims to advance the large-scale deployment of driverless logistics vehicles, filling a market gap for vehicle-grade autonomous logistics [3][32] - The pre-sale ticket prices for economy class flights during the 2026 Spring Festival have shown a year-on-year increase, indicating stable industry performance as demand is released [3][34] - Uber has launched the Uber Air service supported by Joby, integrating ground and air travel booking, which validates the commercial viability of eVTOL [3][41] Industry Dynamics - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, while domestic air freight flights have seen a decline [4][44] - The shipping and port sector has experienced an increase in domestic shipping rates, while dry bulk freight rates have also risen [4][52] - The express logistics sector reported a 2.30% year-on-year increase in business volume and a 0.70% increase in revenue as of December 2025 [4] - The average number of international flights operated daily in the last week of February 2026 was 1992.86, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.73% and a year-on-year increase of 19.22% [4] - The number of trucks passing through national highways decreased by 40.04% from February 9 to February 15 [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on opportunities in the shipping sector, particularly oil transportation, dry bulk, and container shipping due to geopolitical tensions, with recommendations for China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [5] - Consider investments in low-altitude economy and autonomous driving sectors, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter and monitoring Cao Cao Mobility [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the travel sector driven by increased demand during the Spring Festival, recommending Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [5] - Look into international market expansion opportunities in express logistics, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Pay attention to investment opportunities in the highway sector, recommending Sichuan Chengyu Expressway and other major expressway companies [5]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨航空 [Table_Title] 节后价格延续高景气，持续验证周期拐点 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 自 2019 年以来，航空供给的年化复合增速不到 3%，显著低于长期增速，受制于资本开支和设 备供应，未来供给仍将维持低个位数。2023 年以来，需求虽未爆发式增长，但增速始终超过供 给，参考全球，需求仍将维持中高个位数的增长。由于飞机利用率达到历史高位，航班客座率 不断创造新高，国内和国际机票价格持续转正，航空已经走过底部区间，逐步从弱平衡走向紧 平衡。考虑到国内民航反内卷、延长假期和服务消费的增量政策，在航空产能出海的环境下， 国际航线量价弹性释放，继续看好推荐高弹性标的，首选港股三大航及 A 股民营航司。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490520080027 SFC：BQK468 韩轶超 赵超 张银晗 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 节后价格延续高景气，持续 ...

航空淡季不淡把握加仓机会，油运大周期加速持续看好 交通运输 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | | 南方航空 | 7.34 | -0.23 | -0.09 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.54 | -31.91 | -81.56 | 24.30 | 16.85 | 13.48 | 买入 | | | | 中国东航 | 5.73 | -0.37 | -0 ...

编辑|Z.Y 离岸、在岸人民币兑美元汇率双双升破6.84关口，创下新高。短短一段时间，人民币从7.4的低位一路飙 升至6.84，这样的升值速度堪称"核爆"级。 随之而来的，是全网最关心的两个问题：国内通胀会不会跟着抬头？各类资产价格真的要全面起飞吗？ 升势猛 人民币这次的升值势头，远比大家想象的更强劲，而且不是短期波动，而是持续走强的趋势。回顾近期 走势，2月20日以来，人民币迎来五连涨，离岸人民币兑美元累计上涨600多个基点，涨幅接近1%。 如果把时间拉长到2026年开年，升值幅度更为明显。 截至2月26日，离岸人民币兑美元累计升值近1400个基点，幅度达到2%，从年初的高位逐步回落，一路 突破6.9、6.85等关键关口，最终站稳6.84上方。 2月26当天，人民币对美元中间价报6.9228，较前一天上调93个基点，同样创下2023年5月中旬以来的新 高。 美元承压下跌，也间接推动了人民币升值。近期，美国司法部对美联储主席发起刑事调查，美联储的独 立性受到冲击，市场对美元的信任度下降，导致美元指数走弱，非美货币集体走高，人民币也顺势迎来 升值。 更值得关注的是，2月26日盘中，离岸人民币兑美元一度跌破6.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - Daxing District is seizing new opportunities in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with 482 key projects underway across various sectors, including transportation, ecology, healthcare, education, and industry, aimed at injecting new momentum into high-quality development in southern Beijing [1][3]. Group 1: Transportation Development - Daxing is promoting the south extension of Metro Line 19, which will activate the area east of the Jingkai Expressway [4] - The southern road network will be further improved to support development around Beijing Daxing International Airport [4] - The planned Daxing International Tourism Resort will leverage the airport's "magnetic" and "first station" effects to attract entertainment projects [4] Group 2: Ecological Initiatives - Daxing will connect three major parks and create new public parks, garden blocks, urban galleries, and small green spaces to integrate a "15-minute park leisure circle" into residents' lives [6] - Infrastructure in key areas will be enhanced, with the introduction of quality medical and educational resources from institutions like Capital Medical University and An Ding Hospital [6] Group 3: Industrial Development - Daxing's industrial strategy focuses on the integration of innovation, industry, finance, and talent [6] - The district aims to attract high-end talent and facilitate the transformation of scientific achievements from central urban areas [6] - Key industrial parks will undergo upgrades, with a focus on aviation, biomedicine, hydrogen energy, digital economy, and commercial aerospace sectors [9]