Core Viewpoint - The global monetary system is experiencing a trend towards diversification, but the dominance of the US dollar remains significant, and the narrative of "de-dollarization" should not be overstated [1][11][19] Group 1: Dollar Reserve Share - As of the end of Q2, the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell from 57.79% to 56.32%, marking a 1.47 percentage point decline and reaching a 30-year low [1] - The decline in the dollar's reserve share is primarily attributed to a 7.1% depreciation of the dollar index during the same period, which had a negative valuation effect [2][11] - If exchange rates remained stable, the dollar's reserve share would have only slightly decreased to 57.67%, indicating that the valuation effect significantly influenced the reported decline [2] Group 2: Euro and Other Currencies - The euro's reserve share increased from 20% to 21.13%, a rise of 1.13 percentage points, but this was largely due to a 9% appreciation against the dollar, which masked the actual change in reserve share [2][4] - The overall trend indicates a gradual shift towards a more multipolar currency reserve system, with the euro and other currencies gaining ground [11][19] Group 3: US Treasury Securities and Foreign Holdings - As of June, foreign official holdings of US long-term securities amounted to $67,395 billion, closely aligning with the IMF's reported global dollar reserve balance of $67,733 billion [5] - The breakdown of these holdings includes $38,191 billion in US Treasury bonds (56.7%), $5,078 billion in government agency bonds (7.5%), and $21,941 billion in US corporate stocks (32.6%) [5][10] - In Q2, foreign official net purchases of US long-term securities fell to $51 billion, a 94.4% decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a shift in investment strategy [9] Group 4: Gold Reserves and Asset Diversification - The global official gold reserves reached $38,642 billion, surpassing the value of US Treasury holdings for the first time, reflecting a growing interest in gold as a reserve asset [16] - The share of gold in global reserves has increased, while the dollar's share has decreased, suggesting a diversification of reserve assets among central banks [16][18] Group 5: International Capital Flows - The TIC report indicates that the net inflow of international capital into the US has significantly increased, with a year-to-date net inflow of $7,882 billion, a 142% increase year-on-year [12][15] - Despite the increase in private investment, official foreign capital inflows have decreased by 39.5%, highlighting a potential decline in the dollar's reserve currency status [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling after the National Day holiday, with the market expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4][45][46]. - The official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, still below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased slightly, and different industries showed varying degrees of prosperity [10][27]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, domestic tourism and consumption increased, while the year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and the agricultural product wholesale price was relatively low year - on - year [33][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Market - **Treasury Bond Futures Performance**: After the National Day holiday, Treasury bond futures rose on Thursday and fell on Friday. The 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% for the week, the 10 - year rose 0.09%, the 5 - year was flat, and the 2 - year fell 0.02% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with September 30, the 2 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields rose slightly on October 10, while the 10 - year yield decreased slightly, and the 5 - year yield remained unchanged [7]. Manufacturing PMI - **Overall PMI**: In September, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Large enterprises continued to expand slightly, medium - sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline in small - enterprise sentiment narrowed [10]. - **Production and Demand**: The production index was 51.9%, indicating accelerated expansion. The new order index was 49.7%, showing improved demand. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing had rapid production and demand release, while others were below the critical point. The procurement volume index rose to 51.6% [13]. - **Price Index**: The raw material purchase price index was 53.2%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.2%. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined, which may suppress corporate profits. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI in September will narrow [16]. - **Export and Inventory**: The new export order index was 47.8%, and the import index was 48.1%, both showing an increase. The raw material and finished - product inventory indexes increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits from January to August was 7.4% [19][22]. - **Business Expectation**: The employment index and the production and business activity expectation index increased slightly, indicating that enterprises' expectations for future prosperity improved slightly [25]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - **Overall Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, slightly lower than the previous value. The construction industry index was 49.3%, and the service industry index was 50.1% [27]. - **Construction Industry**: The new order index, employment index, and business activity expectation index all showed some changes, with the overall prosperity slightly rising but still weak [29]. - **Service Industry**: The new order index decreased, the employment index remained unchanged, and the business activity expectation index decreased slightly. The input price index and the sales price index both declined [31]. Other Economic Data - **Holiday Consumption**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists and total tourism spending increased. The daily average sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year, with service consumption growing faster [33]. - **Commercial Housing Transactions**: The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and it is expected that the decline in the fourth quarter may exceed that in the third quarter [36]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In early October, the agricultural product wholesale price fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected that the year - on - year decline will narrow significantly in the next two months [39]. - **Funding Rate**: After the National Day holiday, the overnight funding rate fell to a low level. The central bank carried out a 1100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain market liquidity [43].

App侵害用户权益行为是监管部门的重点管理范围，尤其是金融软件。国家网络安全通报中心就曾多次 发布通报直指多家金融App的违规行为，江苏省通信管理局同样在此方面下足功夫，已经在2025年先后 发布了7批通报。 日前，江苏省通信管理局持续整治App、小程序违法违规收集使用个人信息等侵害用户权益的问题，并 发布了关于侵害用户权益行为的APP通报（2025年第7批）。 据悉，截至发布日，尚有7款APP未完成整改，其中就包括"小橙借款"。"小橙借款"的App主办者为南京 市乐在科技小额贷款有限公司（以下简称"乐在科技"），所涉问题为"违规收集个人信息"。 值得注意的是，在乐在科技被监管点名的背后，其部分贷款App与三胞集团存在关联，引发市场关注。 乐在科技备案多款小贷App 企查查信息显示，乐在科技成立于2023年5月，注册资本为1亿元，所属行业为货币金融服务，经营范围 包含小额贷款业务、第二类增值电信业务。此外，公司一般项目包括融资咨询服务、股权投资等。 目前，乐在科技旗下备案了多款小贷App。在小橙借款外，还有橙乐花、借花分期、小橙借款分期、小 福借款、多乐分期、享借钱以及借点花。上述App的备案审核日期从202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8%, slightly exceeding expectations but still below the boom - bust line, while the non - manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 pct to 50.0%. The supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, putting pressure on enterprise profit restoration. Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a relatively low level. The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. The bond market priced the fundamentals further on the day the data was released, and it is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was slightly better than expected but below the boom - bust line, rising 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 49.6%), basically in line with seasonality. The non - manufacturing PMI dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 50.2%), remaining at a seasonal low. Among them, the service industry PMI dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI rose slightly by 0.2 pct to 49.3%, both weaker than seasonality [5]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Manufacturing Industry** - Manufacturing sentiment has moderately recovered, but the supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. In September, the manufacturing PMI improved more than expected, rising 0.4 pct to 49.8%. The production index rose 1.1 pct to 51.9%, reaching a new high since Q2 this year, while the new order index only increased 0.2 pct to 49.7%. The gap between the "production - new order" index widened to 2.2 pct, indicating that the supply recovery intensity may be greater than the demand improvement. Enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory has increased, but there are signs of inventory accumulation, and production may be "front - loaded" [7]. - There are differentiations in external and internal demand and price structure. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the price indicators have generally improved, but the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, which may still restrict enterprise profit restoration. In September, the purchase price index of major raw materials remained in the expansion range of 53.2%, while the ex - factory price index dropped to 48.2%, and the gap between the two widened to 5.0 pct. External demand remained resilient, with the new export order index rising to 47.8%, while domestic demand recovery was still relatively slow, with the new order index only increasing 0.2 pct to 49.7% [7]. - Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. In September, the PMI of large - scale enterprises reached 51.0%, remaining in the expansion range. Small - scale enterprises improved significantly, with the PMI rising 1.6 pct month - on - month, while the sentiment of medium - scale enterprises declined. In terms of industries, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries remained in the high - sentiment range above 51%, with significant improvements in industries such as automobiles and railway, ship, and aerospace equipment. The PMI of the consumer goods industry also rose to 50.6% [7]. - **Non - manufacturing Industry** - Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a seasonal low. In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0%, and the service industry index dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%. The end of the summer vacation effect is an important factor, with the sentiment of consumer - related industries such as catering and cultural and entertainment significantly declining, while modern service industries such as finance and telecommunications maintained high sentiment. The business activity index of the construction industry rose slightly by 0.2 pct, but the absolute level of 49.3% was still below the boom - bust line, indicating that real estate and infrastructure investment may continue to be under pressure [7]. - **Bond Market Outlook** - The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. On the day the data was released, the bond market priced the fundamentals further, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond dropping 2 BP. A series of growth - stabilizing policies have been implemented recently, and the investment of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may support infrastructure investment. The expectation of optimizing real estate market regulation policies in many places has increased, but whether the economy will continue to improve in an environment of weak domestic demand and prices remains to be seen. It is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [7].

2025年10月7日上午，纽约期金主力合约盘中罕见飙升，最 高触及每盎司4000美元，再创历史新高；年内涨幅逾50%。 作者： 欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 4000美元！黄金在无声中呐喊的，不只是避险焦虑，更是对全球货币秩序暗流涌动的本能回应。 2025年10月7日上午，纽约期金主力合约盘中罕见飙升，最高触及每盎司4000美元，再创历史新 高；年内涨幅逾50%。 黄金这一破位跃升，并非由地缘冲突或通胀预期点燃，而是在美联储重启 降息、美元指数显著走弱的大背景下，包括各国央行连续增持黄金储备，私人部门积极配置黄金资 产，都在推动黄金走出独立行情。资本市场以黄金之名，向美元信用投下的一票"沉默公投"。 美联储降息后，美元指数走弱，年内跌幅近10%，而人民币汇率稳中向好，年内涨幅为2.46%； 这可能是系统性变量的拐点。它意味着， 世界在寻找美元之外的相关资产锚。 在此背景下，人民币的"三角功能"可能在跃迁： 从"结算货币"渐趋进阶至"投资货币"，并逐步试 探"储备货币"的边界。 国际货币基金数据显示，2025年一季度，人民币全球外储占比2.12%（2463亿美元），位列第 六 ， 低 于 美 元 （ 57.74% ...

据参考消息援引路透社10月5日报道，伊朗议会已批准对货币制度进行全面改革，将在未来几年内把其 国家货币的面值去掉四个零，以在多年的通货膨胀之后简化交易。 报道提及，据跟踪货币汇率的"邦巴斯特"网站的数据显示，多年超过35%的通胀已导致伊朗货币里亚尔 在自由市场上的汇率跌至1美元兑1150000里亚尔，从而使人们对纸币面值或财务报表数字感觉麻木。 在议会解决了宪法监护委员会阻止通过一项推出多年的议案的反对意见后，伊朗国家媒体5日报道称货 币改革计划得到了批准。 报道称，伊朗议会经济委员会主席沙姆索尔丁·侯赛因对国家电视台表示："货币名称仍将是里亚尔，改 革不会在一夜之间发生。央行有长达两年时间为这项改革做准备。之后还将会有为期三年的过渡期，在 此期间两种面值的货币将同时使用。" 侯赛因称此举将使里亚尔更加便于用来交易和进行计算，并补充说高通胀已严重削弱了纸币的实用性。 不过此举仍将引发争议。伊朗学生通讯社10月5日援引议员侯赛因·萨姆萨米的话报道说："一国货币的 声誉无法通过取消四个零来恢复。相反，只有通过增强货币的实际价值才能达到这一目的。" （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 据参考消息此前消息，路透社8月22日报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB), moving from a policy-driven approach to a market-driven one, where businesses are increasingly opting for RMB in cross-border transactions [1][10][17] - In the second quarter of this year, RMB cross-border transaction settlements surpassed those in USD for the first time, with 68% of surveyed companies using RMB for cross-border trade settlements by the fourth quarter of 2024 [1][2] - The RMB is perceived as more user-friendly and stable, with companies valuing its cash flow, security, and acceptance by trading partners [3][12] Group 2 - The establishment of the Digital RMB International Operation Center in Shanghai and the launch of various platforms signify China's efforts to create a transaction-driven RMB infrastructure [6][9] - The RMB's role is evolving from a settlement currency to an investment currency, with its global reserve share reaching 2.12% as of the first quarter of 2025 [11][12] - The RMB's internationalization is supported by a combination of policy simplification, development of onshore derivatives markets, and tailored financial products to enhance its competitiveness [14][15] Group 3 - The RMB's internationalization is not merely a result of administrative guidance but is increasingly driven by market dynamics and the desire for a more efficient and transparent payment system [10][13] - The recent trends in capital inflows and the rising interest in RMB-denominated assets reflect a broader structural change in the global monetary environment [15][16] - The future of RMB internationalization hinges on comprehensive financial reforms, robust infrastructure, and effective risk management to establish it as a necessary currency in global trade and finance [14][15]

可以试想这样的场景：2025年的秋天，上海的一家中型汽车零部件出口商，在完成一笔对南非客户的订单时，用人民币完成了全流程的报价、结算和资金回 流。 这家企业财务总监可能会告诉你，这不是政策要求，也没有补贴推动，只是对方开口就问能不能用人民币收款。 如此回答，折射出这个时代里的悄然之变。今年二季度，中国企业跨境交易人民币结算占比首次超过美元。 中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）在交通银行、商务部的支持下，2024年以来，进行了四次企业跨境人民币观察问卷调查（每个季度收回企业问卷数量 在1090—1793之间）。调查结果显示，越来越多的企业包括外资和第三国贸易对手，主动要求人民币结算。其中，2024年四季度，68%的受访企业使用人民 币进行跨境贸易结算，40%的受访企业在与第三国交易中使用人民币，71%的受访企业将"资产安全性"视为使用人民币的首要原因。 这组数据显示，人民币不再只是一个政策口号，它正以交易真实发生的方式，在微观经济肌理中走向国际化。 记者 欧阳晓红 在美元降息、黄金创新高、人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）上线运行将迎来十周年、数字人民币国际运营中心正式启动的背景下，人民币国际化的逻辑可能 正从" ...

全球金融秩序重塑：黄金飙升背后的中国策略 一场不动声色的货币变革，正在全球金融舞台上悄然上演。黄金，这个一度被时代遗忘的古老价值符 号，正以惊人的速度重返人们的视野。从俄乌冲突爆发时的1800美元，到如今突破3800美元，黄金价格 的飙升，绝非单纯的市场波动，而是全球金融秩序重塑的清晰信号。 "中国式保管"：重塑信任的巧妙一步 9月23日，彭博社的一则报道引人注目：中国正逐渐成为外国主权黄金的"保管员"。一些东南亚国家已 选择将本国黄金运至中国储存。这一看似简单的举动，实则意义深远。它挑战着以美元为中心的传统金 融体系，并预示着一种新的信任关系的建立。 回溯历史，布雷顿森林体系曾赋予美元至高地位，凭借"35美元兑换1盎司黄金"的承诺，美元一度成为 全球货币霸主。然而，随着美国单方面撕毁承诺，美元逐渐与石油挂钩，形成了石油美元体系。如今， 美国在中东的影响力日渐式微，石油美元体系也面临挑战。 在这样的背景下，中国提出的"代管黄金"策略，无疑是在美元霸权的伤口上撒盐。当其他国家被限制使 用黄金进行结算时，中国挺身而出，提供黄金储存服务，为建立新的结算体系奠定基础。这如同当年支 付宝的横空出世，以便捷的支付方式，彻 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is at 49.8%, showing a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in economic output [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, suggesting stability in the non-manufacturing sector [2] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.6%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities have accelerated, with the production index reaching 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high [1] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating improved market demand [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods are expanding, with PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.0%, indicating stability, while the service sector index is slightly higher at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone [2] - Certain industries, including postal, telecommunications, and financial services, have business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating strong growth [2] - However, sectors closely related to consumer spending, such as dining and entertainment, have seen indices drop below the critical point due to the end of the summer season [2] Economic Outlook - The production and operation activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 54.1%, indicating positive market expectations for the near term [2] - Analysts predict that the "year-end effect" and "holiday effect" will boost investment and consumption-related demand, particularly in construction and service sectors [2] - Overall, the macroeconomic environment is expected to continue improving in the fourth quarter, supported by potential policy measures and market confidence [3]