7 月 11 日公司发布业绩预告，25H1 预计实现营收 106.3-108.4 亿 元，同比+35.0%～37.7%；实现归母净利润 23.1-24.5 亿元，同比 +33.5%～41.6%；实现扣非归母净利润 22.2-23.6 亿元，同比 +30.1%～38.3%。其中单 Q2 预计实现营收 57.8-59.9 亿元，同比 +31.7%～36.5%；实现归母净利润 13.3-14.7 亿元，同比+24.6%～ 37.8%；实现扣非归母净利润12.6-14.0亿元，同比+16.5%～29.4%。 Q2 收入增长中枢落在 34%+，收入保持高增长态势。主要系 1）特 饮基本盘稳健，预计增速保持在 25%以上，贡献主要增量。2）公 司积极探索多品类发展，培育新的增长点，补水啦、果汁茶持续 扩张网点，大包装+一元乐享提升复购，预计月销环比提升，新品 带来多元增量贡献。 3）考虑到新品一元乐享中奖率倾斜，公司 借助冰冻化、数字化优势进行终端建设，预计动销表现更为亮眼。 Q2 扣非净利率受产品结构+费投节奏扰动，高基数下具备韧性。 以中枢计算，25Q2 归母净利率为 23.8%，同比-0.50pct；扣非净 利率为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The differing perspectives of Warren Buffett and Duan Yongping on financial reports reflect their distinct judgments on the correlation between information and the future, highlighting the core logic of analyzing financial statements [1] Group 1: Perspectives on Financial Reports - Buffett views financial reports as a "storytelling" tool, focusing on historical data to capture competitive advantages, operational logic, and management traits, which he believes are indicative of future profitability [1] - For Buffett, stable profit margins, healthy cash flows, and reasonable debt structures are direct manifestations of a company's moat, as evidenced by his investment in Coca-Cola, where decades of stable gross margins and market share data validate the brand's sustainability [1] - Duan Yongping, on the other hand, emphasizes the importance of business models and corporate culture over financial data, arguing that financial reports may not accurately reflect core competitiveness due to industry cycles and short-term policies [1] Group 2: Financial Reports vs. Other Information Channels - The effectiveness of financial reports in predicting future profitability depends on the stability of the industry and the maturity of the business model; in stable industries, coherent financial data is a significant reference, while in rapidly changing sectors, the relevance of financial reports may diminish [1] - Financial reports are just one of many information channels; industry research reports, on-site investigations, user feedback, and supply chain dynamics can provide more timely and comprehensive insights [1] - Ultimately, the value of any information lies in its ability to clarify a company's future profitability logic, whether through financial reports or alternative sources [1]

事件：公司发布2025 年半年度业绩预增公告，2025 年上半年公司预计实现营业收入106.30-108.40 亿 元，同比+35.01%至+37.68%，预计实现归母净利润23.10-24.50 亿元，同比+33.48%至+41.57%，预计实 现扣非归母净利润22.20-23.60 亿元，同比+30.06%至+38.26%。 全国化稳步推进，多品类持续提供增长动力。单25Q2 看，公司预计实现营业收入57.82-59.92 亿元，同 比+31.7%至36.5%，预计实现归母净利润13.30-14.70 亿元，同比+24.7%至+37.8%，预计实现扣非归母 净利润12.61-14.01 亿元，同比+16.5%至+29.4%。 25 年上半年，在渠道方面，公司始终以"动销指导相关的经营活动"作为公司的明确共识，持续推进全 国化战略，通过精细化渠道管理，不断加强渠道运营能力，继续加强冰冻化建设，提高全品项产品的曝 光率、拉动终端动销；在产品方面，东鹏特饮基本盘持续夯实，增长稳健，同时，积极通过多品类发展 培育新的增长点；在产能方面，25 年4 月，海南生产基地开始动工，预计27 年建成，作为公司在全国 布局的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Xiangpiaopiao has announced a significant loss in its performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue declining and net profit expected to worsen compared to the previous year [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Xiangpiaopiao's revenue is approximately 1.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.21% [1]. - The expected net loss for the company is around 97.39 million yuan, which represents an increase in loss of approximately 678.9 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1]. - The company's net profit loss has expanded by 230% compared to the same period in 2024, with a further increase in non-recurring net profit loss to 111 million yuan, marking a record high in recent years [1][3]. Reasons for Performance Decline - The decline in performance is attributed to changes in the external consumption environment, consumer habits, and demand, which have pressured traditional brewing products during peak sales seasons [3]. - The timing of the Spring Festival has shifted compared to the previous year, resulting in a shorter peak season and an early transition into the off-peak period for brewing business [3]. - The company has actively reduced channel inventory levels to maintain the interests of distributors and ensure healthy inventory for the upcoming peak season [3]. Strategic Transition - Xiangpiaopiao has initiated a strategic transition, focusing more on the ready-to-drink segment, particularly the Meco juice tea [6]. - The ready-to-drink business saw an 8% revenue increase in 2024, reaching 973 million yuan, with Meco juice tea growing by 20.69% [8]. - However, the growth rate of the ready-to-drink segment has significantly slowed in 2025, failing to offset the decline in brewing products, which has contributed to the company's performance pressure [8]. Market Challenges - The ready-to-drink business has a much lower gross margin compared to brewing products, and the company has not yet established a breakout product in the highly competitive ready-to-drink tea market dominated by major players [8]. - Xiangpiaopiao faces challenges with its channel transformation, as its supermarket and distribution system shows weak growth, with online channels accounting for less than 15% in 2024 [8]. Future Outlook - To alleviate performance pressure, the company has invested 100 million yuan to acquire a 13.29% stake in the Changsha Quanzhong Venture Capital Fund, which focuses on the consumer sector [8]. - However, industry insiders believe that the investment will take a long time to yield results, and the company's expanded losses are fundamentally due to weak growth in its main product category and a lack of new growth engines [8]. - The performance in the second half of 2025 will be crucial, as the recovery of sales during the brewing peak season will determine the company's annual performance baseline [8].

01 宏观 Macroeconomy 特朗普《大美丽法案》的内容及影响 中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 >>点击图片查看全文<< 2025年7月4日，特朗普正式签署《大美丽法案》[1]，基本兑现了其竞选期间提出的核心减税承 诺。该法案分为五大部分，涵盖企业减税、个人与家庭减税、削减清洁能源补贴、压缩医疗补助 （Medicaid）以及削减补充营养援助计划（SNAP）。整体来看，《大美丽法案》将在未来推升 财政赤字，但部分赤字可通过关税收入予以对冲。我们测算显示，法案对2026年实际GDP的拉动 在0.5个百分点以内，对通胀的推升作用不超过0.15个百分点；未来十年，关税+减税的组合将增 加净赤字约1.3万亿美元，赤字率将维持在6%左右。鉴于当前失业率低、通胀温和、私人部门资 产负债表健康，美国政府债务尚无迫切风险。中期来看，财政的约束将更多取决于通胀过高与财 政效率下降，但目前这两种情形尚未出现。在通胀可控的前提下，美国财政的空间可能比过去40 年来主流经济学所想的要更大。 2025.07.07 | 肖捷文 苏思雨等 02 策略 Strategy "大美丽"法案后的美债、美股与流 ...

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI 1000 major consumer index reported at 7845.59 points, with a decline of 4.42% over the past month and 2.47% over the past three months, while it has increased by 0.26% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 1000 index consists of 10 industry indices selected based on liquidity and market representation, providing diverse investment targets for investors [1] - The top ten holdings in the CSI 1000 major consumer index include: Lao Baigan Wine (4.28%), Lianhua Holdings (3.75%), Biological Shares (3.1%), Zhongchong Shares (3.01%), Shunxin Agriculture (2.86%), Yanjinpuzi (2.81%), Jinhui Industry (2.79%), Shanghai Jahwa (2.53%), Miaokelan Duo (2.52%), and Tangrenshen (2.43%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI 1000 major consumer index is divided between the Shanghai Stock Exchange (51.18%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (48.82%) [1] - The industry composition of the CSI 1000 major consumer index includes: Food (36.45%), Breeding (25.12%), Alcohol (12.51%), Household Products (10.76%), Planting (8.80%), Beauty Care (4.35%), and Soft Drinks (2.01%) [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, and can also be adjusted temporarily under special circumstances [2]

摘要 李子园传统渠道（商超、小店等）销售额下滑明显，上半年降幅超 10%，但现代渠道如零食系统、自动售卖机、电商等增长强劲，其中零 食系统增长率达 40%，但新兴渠道占比小，整体收入仍下滑。 二季度收入环比一季度恶化，同比下降十几个百分点，因传统渠道持续 受冲击。公司正调整结构，加强与新兴渠道合作，虽这些渠道实现双位 数增长，但难抵传统渠道下滑影响。 新品表现优于老品，营养素水 5 月底上市，销量已达 1,500 万左右。零 售渠道增长的 40%以上来自新品贡献，如 380 毫升产品和 100 毫升甜 牛奶等，新品补充了老品下滑。 上半年净利润同比增长 15%-16%，扣非后约 5%-6%。毛利率因原材 料成本优势有所提升，但二季度收入下降导致制造费用增加，毛利率增 幅低于一季度。 公司拓展零食系统（鸣鸣很忙、万城等）、特通（早餐、小餐饮等）及 便利店等现代渠道，针对自动售卖机开发专门产品，以寻找新的市场增 量，稳定传统渠道。 Q&A 2025 年上半年及下半年，行业整体情况如何？公司与竞争对手的表现对比如 何？ 整个消费市场仍然较为疲软，主要体现在渠道上的变化。传统渠道如商超类持 续下滑，而新兴流通渠道如零 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 07 月 10 日 行业及产业 食品饮料 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 《啤酒行业跟踪报告：啤酒进入消费旺季，燕 京啤酒 U8 放量》2025-06-27 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：白酒持续筑底，聚 焦高景气主线》2025-06-09 证券分析师 范林泉 S0820525020001 021-32229888-25516 fanlinquan@ajzq.com 白酒仍在筑底，关注大众品结构性机会 ——食品饮料行业跟踪报告 周度跟踪：本周（6.30-7.04）食品饮料板块+0.62%，表现弱于沪深 300 指数（+1.54%）， 在 31 个申万子行业中排名第 20。食品饮料子板块中，涨跌幅由高到低分别为：白酒 （+1.19%），烘焙食品（+1.10%），肉制品（+0.93%），预加工食品（+0.26%），熟食 （+0.16%），调味发酵品（+0.04%），其他酒类（+0.03%），保健品（-0.34%），啤酒 （-0.45%），乳品（-0.66%），软饮料（-1.87%），零食（-1.9 ...

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index reported at 5488.14 points, showing a decline of 1.54% over the past month, an increase of 2.05% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 3.77% [1] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen industry index series categorizes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Composite, and CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Composite Index into 11 industries to reflect the overall performance of different industry companies [1] - The top ten holdings of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index include Meihua Biological (2.53%), Zhengbang Technology (2.43%), Yanjing Beer (2.2%), Anjii Food (1.83%), Maogeping (1.79%), Hengan International (1.76%), Dabeinong (1.66%), Dekang Animal Husbandry (1.64%), First Pacific (1.57%), and Bairun Co. (1.55%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings is 41.28% from Shanghai Stock Exchange, 41.17% from Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and 17.55% from Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings shows that food accounts for 32.70%, breeding for 20.94%, liquor for 17.06%, planting for 8.99%, beauty care for 6.79%, soft drinks for 6.78%, and household goods for 6.75% [2] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2]

中金研究 1H25消费需求低位企稳，在整体消费信心偏弱背景下食饮消费不乏结构性亮点，满足年轻人悦己需求及高质价比产品表现突出。展望下半年，在国家 持续出台相关政策拉动内需、提振消费、鼓励生育的背景下，我们认为食饮板块需求有望边际企稳改善。分板块看大众食品基本面自3月起边际改善， 下半年基本面有望稳中改善，我们预计新消费标的延续相对高成长，辣味零食、健康饮品、气泡黄酒等新消费趋势景气度有望保持，带动板块估值抬 升，看好休闲零食、软饮料等子板块下半年表现。白酒受宏观经济及政策影响出现板块性估值回调，基本面处于筑底阶段，虽下半年白酒基本面或仍 有所承压，但估值已基本反映悲观预期，配置价值渐显。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 大众食品：预计新消费趋势延续，关注高景气赛道龙头。 展望2025年下半年，我们预计大众食品板块需求有望稳中向上，并预计具备新消费属性的子赛 道如休闲零食中魔芋等品类、软饮料中无糖茶、电解质水、椰子水等健康品类有望保持创新活力，通过持续抓取新消费趋势延续较高景气度。子板块方面 我们优先推荐软饮料、休闲零食，建议关注估值处于低位的乳制品、啤酒板块。长期看，行业结构性增长机会仍存，悦 ...