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银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251010
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 11:53
大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 1 / 29 有色金属衍生品日报 第一部分 市场研判 铜 【市场回顾】 1.期货:今日沪铜 2511 合约收于 85910 元/吨,持平昨日结算价,沪铜指数增仓 13556 手至 57.82 万手。 2.现货:临近周末沪铜现货采购情绪抬升,现货升水企稳,报升水 20 元/吨,较上一交易日 上涨 5 元/吨。广东和天津地区由于铜价高位,下游消费延续疲软,持平于上一交易日。广 东报升水 30 元/吨,天津报贴水 210 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 周四,威廉姆斯表示:"劳动力市场进一步放缓的风险是我非常关注的事情。"他认为, 如果经济如预期发展——通胀率升至 3%左右,失业率微升至当前 4.3%以上——他将支持 "今年降息"。 2. 周四,美联储理事巴尔表示,在上个月启动首次降息之后,美联储在进一步调整政策立 场时应当保持谨慎,因为物价上涨速度仍然过快。 3. 周四,据媒体援引一位知情的美国劳工部官员称,美国劳工统计局(BLS)已召回部分 员工,以准备发布一份关键的通胀报告——9 月份的消费者价格指数(CPI)报告,这份报 告对 ...
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251010
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 09:50
. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/10/10 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可,任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:假期有色行情提振,镍不锈钢价格拉涨-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:55
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 假期有色行情提振,镍不锈钢价格拉涨 镍品种 市场分析 2025-10-09日沪镍主力合约2511开于121300元/吨,收于124480元/吨,较前一交易日收盘变化2.39%,当日成交量为 130864(+3674)手,持仓量为86038(9898)手。 期货方面:昨日沪镍主力合约呈现高开高走、震荡上行的态势。国庆长假期间,国内方面出台文旅与基建新政, 强化了新能源与高端制造对关键金属的中长期需求预期。叠加市场对四季度 "稳增长" 政策加码的期待,基本金属 板块风险偏好显著提升。沪镍高开或部分反映了资金对政策红利的提前布局。海外方面,美联储 9 月降息 25BP 落 地后,市场对 10 月下旬议息会议进一步宽松的押注升温。美元指数昨日微跌 0.10% 至 98.76 点,人民币汇率同 步走强(美元兑人民币报 7.1280,上涨 0.13%),降低了以美元计价的进口镍成本,同时增强了国内市场的风险资 产配置意愿。 镍矿方面:节后镍矿市场观望为主,镍矿价格持稳运行。菲律宾方面,苏里高矿山即将步入雨季,矿山报价延续 坚挺。近期,菲律宾棉兰地区发生地震,经Mysteel ...
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20251009
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 14:51
银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人:车红云 | | | 期货从业证号:F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场:昨日,伦敦金历史性地涨破 4000 美元/盎司大关,并将新高刷至 | | 研究员:王伟 | 4059.31 美元,最终收涨 1.4%,收报 4040.745 美元/盎司;伦敦银跟随黄金创纪录涨 | | 期货从业证号:F03143400 | 势,最高触及 49.547 美元/盎司,再创 14 年新高,最终收涨 2.36%,报 48.88 美元/盎 | | 投资咨询从业证号: Z0022141 | 司。 | | | 2.美元指数:美元指数连续第三个交易日走高,尾盘触及 99 关口,随后有所回落,最 | | 研究员:王露晨 CFA | 终收涨 0.15%,报 98.767,创逾两个月来新高。 | | 期货从业证号:F03110758 | 3.美债收益率:10 年期美债收益 ...
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251009
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 14:50
大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人:车红云 期货从业证号:F03088215 投资咨询从业证号:Z0017510 研究员:王伟 期货从业证号:F03143400 投资咨询从业证号:Z0022141 研究员:陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号:F03107034 投资咨询从业证号:Z0018401 研究员:陈寒松 期货从业证号:F03129697 投资咨询从业证号:Z0020351 联系方式: 上海:021-65789219 北京:010-68569781 1.期货:今日沪铜 2511 合约收于 86750 元/吨,涨幅 4.19%,沪铜指数增仓 31427 手至 56.46 万手。 2.现货:节后首日铜价暴涨,现货交投冷清,上海报升水 15 元/吨,较上一交易日上涨 15 元/吨。广东地区节后归来库存大幅增加,但受铜价高涨原因下游补货低迷,现货升水明显 下降,报升水 30 元/吨,下跌 60 元/吨。华北报贴水 210 元/吨,下跌 20 元/吨。 1. 截至 10 月 9 日,SMM 全国主流地区铜库存较 9 月 29 日增加 1 ...
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251009
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 10:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The risk - averse demand is boosted by the US government shutdown, with over 90% expectation of a Fed rate cut in October. Real interest rates are declining, and there is capital inflow led by Western investors due to the "currency depreciation trade". Central banks' continuous gold - buying and geopolitical uncertainties strengthen the long - term logic [3]. - Copper: Shanghai copper futures opened higher due to the rise in overseas copper prices, but the willingness of the industry to accept goods at high prices is questionable. If post - holiday consumption fails to follow up, copper prices may face downward pressure [15]. - Zinc: The supply is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore has a price advantage, and overseas zinc ore supply is abundant. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the LME inventory is decreasing. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [36]. - Nickel: During the National Day holiday, overseas nickel prices were strong due to policy uncertainties in Indonesia. The supply of upstream nickel ore is expected to tighten, while downstream demand has not significantly improved. Domestic nickel prices are expected to rise slightly after the holiday but with limited upward momentum [51]. - Tin: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the macro impact on tin prices has decreased. In the short - term, the supply is tight, and the weak demand has little impact on prices. Tin prices are likely to fluctuate [66]. - Lithium carbonate: The previous expectation of a shutdown in Jiangxi's lithium ore market has not been verified. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Xiawo lithium ore and the restocking of downstream sectors [77]. - Silicon: For industrial silicon, prices may rise slightly as enterprises are expected to cut production during the dry season, but the high inventory will limit the price increase. For polysilicon, the market will focus on the expectations of "platform establishment in October" and "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November", and the risk is relatively high [87]. - Aluminum: For aluminum, the short - term price is affected by the mismatch between the increase in seasonal demand and the decline compared to the previous year. The inventory is expected to accumulate during the National Day, but the policy may bring positive sentiment, and the short - term trend is slightly bullish. For alumina, it is in an oversupply state, but the downward profit space may be limited. For cast aluminum alloy, the price is supported by raw material costs and pre - holiday stocking, but weak demand suppresses the price, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [117][118][119]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - The US government shutdown, high Fed rate - cut expectation, capital inflow, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical factors are favorable for gold [3]. - Multiple figures show the price trends of SHFE gold and silver, COMEX gold, and the relationships between gold and other factors such as the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates [4][8][9][10] Copper - Shanghai copper futures opened higher due to overseas price increases, but high - price acceptance and post - holiday consumption are concerns [15]. - The daily data of copper futures show price changes in different contracts, and copper spot data also show price fluctuations [16][22]. - Data on copper import profit, concentrate processing fees, scrap - to - refined copper price difference, and warehouse receipts are presented [27][31][32] Zinc - The supply side shows an oversupply situation, with differences in domestic and overseas markets. The demand side has issues such as inventory accumulation and low downstream开工 rates [36]. - Zinc futures and spot price data show price changes and spreads [37][42]. - Zinc inventory data show the changes in domestic and overseas inventories [47] Nickel - Overseas nickel prices were strong during the holiday due to Indonesian policy uncertainties. Upstream supply is expected to tighten, and downstream demand is weak [51]. - Data on nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot prices, as well as downstream profit margins, are provided [52][61] Tin - After the Fed's decision, the macro impact on tin prices has decreased. Short - term supply is tight, and prices are likely to fluctuate [66]. - Tin futures and spot price data show price changes, and inventory data also show changes [67][71][73] Lithium carbonate - The expectation of a shutdown in the Jiangxi lithium ore market has failed. Attention should be paid to restocking and production resumption [77]. - Lithium carbonate futures and spot price data show price changes, and inventory data show changes [78][80][84] Silicon - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season, but high inventory limits the increase. Polysilicon market is affected by expectations and has high risks [87]. - Data on industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, as well as production, inventory, and cost data, are presented [88][89][110] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are affected by demand, inventory, and policy. Alumina is in an oversupply state, but the downward profit space may be limited. Cast aluminum alloy is affected by cost and demand [117][118][119]. - Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot price data show price changes and spreads [120][123][130] - Aluminum and alumina inventory data show changes in different regions [140]
当前时点,如何看待金属煤炭行业?
2025-10-09 02:00
当前时点,如何看待金属煤炭行业?20251008 摘要 ETF 资金流向与黄金价格高度相关,今年海外资金驱动显著,尤其在 Comex 和北美 SPDR ETF 市场,与过去两年中国主导购金的趋势不同。 美国降息预期下修了投资者对美股及美国实体投资回报率的预期,促使 周期性避险资金流入黄金市场,经济数据衰竭加速及政府停摆进一步推 升金价。 短期内,降息初期围绕远端降息概率及经济数据松动背景下,金价上行 趋势将延续,但央行购金结构等因素难以高频跟踪,短端阻力位难以明 确。 长期来看,若历史重演且周期性与趋势性力量共振,黄金可能经历一个 十年左右的中周期,目前涨势已持续七年,预计至少还有三年左右的短 周期时长。 黄金股估值普遍偏低,突破 4,000 美元后,市场信心增强,预计 A 股公 司估值将回到 25-30 倍历史中位数水平,建议关注四季度 A 港股黄金板 块。 Q&A 近期黄金价格突破 4,000 美元的主要驱动因素是什么? 近期黄金价格突破 4,000 美元的主要驱动因素包括以下几个方面。首先,假期 期间,海外周期性主导的 ETF 资金大规模加仓是推动黄金价格上升的重要原因。 高频数据表明,ETF 资金持仓 ...
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250930
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 11:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin markets. It takes into account factors such as market trends, supply and demand dynamics, policy impacts, and geopolitical risks, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each metal [3][4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold reached a new high of over $3,830 per ounce, closing up 1.97%. London silver hit a high of $47.174, closing up 1.9%. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - **Important Information**: The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect economic data release and the Fed's October monetary policy decision. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 89.8% [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US government shutdown risk and the expectation of interest rate cuts have increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong upward trend in precious metals. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2511 contract closed up 1.96%. LME copper closed down 2.19%. LME inventory decreased by 500 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 923 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government may shut down, and different Fed officials have different views on interest rates [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Grasberg accident has exacerbated the tightness of copper ore supply. Domestic production has declined, and consumption is weak. The long - term supply - demand structure has changed [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for long positions. Hold off - market positive arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Important Information**: Eight departments proposed to strengthen resource exploration and rationally layout alumina projects. The national alumina operating capacity increased, and the import price decreased [10][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy impacts on capacity investment are limited. The import window is open, and the fundamentals are in surplus, so the price is expected to be weak [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to trend weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose. Spot prices remained flat [16]. - **Important Information**: Policies affected the recycled aluminum industry. The exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and downstream enterprises had different holiday arrangements [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum restricts raw material stocking. Downstream holidays are extended, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the futures price to fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose. Spot prices in various regions declined [21]. - **Important Information**: US economic data showed resilience. Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and photovoltaic installation declined. Downstream enterprises' holiday and procurement situations varied [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data affects interest rate cut expectations. Domestic inventory decreased, but consumption is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose, and SHFE zinc rose. Spot premiums increased [26]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and a mining company obtained a new mining license [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc concentrate production may decrease, and imports are expected to decline. Refined zinc supply may increase, and consumption is not expected to improve significantly. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, but there are risks of overseas delivery [27][28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Control positions before the holiday. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell, and SHFE lead fell slightly. Spot prices declined, and downstream procurement was okay [32]. - **Important Information**: Lead inventory decreased, lead battery enterprise production was mixed, and the holiday may lead to a decline in production [32][33][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate market is in tight balance, and scrap lead prices are likely to rise. Primary lead production may be affected by losses, while secondary lead production may increase. Consumption in the peak season is not as expected [35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose, and SHFE nickel rose. LME nickel inventory increased, and premiums of different brands changed [38]. - **Important Information**: Russian nickel entered the US market through Europe. Indonesia's actions affected the nickel price [38][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Indonesia's actions drove a slight rebound in the nickel price. Downstream consumption is expected to be flat, and the supply is still in surplus. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel rose, and index positions decreased. Spot prices were in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A Korean and a Chinese company will jointly build a stainless steel plant in Indonesia [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Stainless steel followed the nickel price to rebound slightly. Supply pressure remains, but inventory is lower than last year, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fell, and some spot prices declined [46]. - **Important Information**: A silicon project started construction [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle." The supply is not very sensitive to price changes. There are rumors of increased production, and the price may回调 in the short term and then can be bought [46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback and then buy. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits. No arbitrage opportunity [47]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly and fell slightly. Spot prices were stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot prices are stable, but there are pressures on contract delivery and inventory accumulation. The price may回调 in the short term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and then re - enter after the holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback, exit long positions and re - enter after the holiday. Conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and positions and warehouse receipts increased. Spot prices declined [52][53]. - **Important Information**: A lithium mining company modified a supply agreement, Tesla entered the Indian market, and a lithium project was put into production [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: October demand is strong, supply growth is narrowing, and inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate during the holiday, and the situation may change after the holiday. It is recommended to hold an empty position [52][53][54]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin rose, and spot prices declined. Consumption was weak [56]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown risk, Fed officials' views, and Indonesia's closure of illegal mining points affected the market [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US situation and Indonesia's actions affected the price. The tin concentrate supply is still tight, demand is weak, and inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and consumption recovery [57][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term strong - side fluctuation, be cautious about Indonesia's event. Wait and see for options [59].
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250930
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 10:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut is driving up gold prices, with the market pricing in an 88% probability of a rate cut in October. Global central banks' strong gold - buying trend and geopolitical risks also support gold prices [3]. - Copper prices soared last week due to the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is a short - term over - increase [18]. - Aluminum prices are in a short - term tug - of - war due to mixed demand signals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while casting aluminum alloy is trading based on fundamentals with a mixed outlook. All three may show short - term positive sentiment [38][39][40]. - Zinc supply is in surplus, and the market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. - The nickel industry is affected by various factors such as government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Prices in different parts of the chain show different trends [80]. - Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to the short - term supply - tight situation and weak demand [95]. - Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile [122]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. The market anticipates an 88% chance of a rate cut in October, and 2025 central bank gold purchases may exceed 900 tons [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose significantly last week because of the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is short - term over - increase. The recovery time of the mine is longer than previously expected [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [19][24]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are affected by demand changes and potential positive sentiment from industry policies. The inventory decreased by 21,000 tons on Thursday [38]. - **Alumina**: It is in an oversupply situation, but short - term downward profit space may be limited due to factors such as cost and industry policies [39]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is trading based on fundamentals, with mixed supply - demand factors leading to short - term price stability [40]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is in surplus, with domestic mines having a price advantage and overseas mines increasing production. Demand shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory [64]. - **Market Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [65][73]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The nickel industry is affected by government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel inventory is accumulating [80]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to short - term supply - tightness and weak demand, and the impact of macro factors has decreased [95]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [96][101]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Forecast**: Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium change, and inventory data also show different trends [111][116]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile. Attention should be paid to production cuts in the southwest and policy implementation [122]. - **Market Data**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [122].
中辉有色观点-20250930
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:26
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Holding positions over the holiday) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Lead: ★ (Weak) [1] - Tin: ★★ (Strong) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Polysilicon: ★ (Cautiously bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Wide - range oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown, along with the dovish statements of Fed officials, support the long - term investment value of gold and silver. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, but short - term risks need to be noted [1][3][4]. - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply contraction expectations and strategic resource attributes. It is recommended to take different strategies for short - term and long - term investments [1][6][7]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the long - term. It is advisable to be cautious during the holiday and maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][10][11]. - The lead market is currently in a short - term weak trend due to factors such as the resumption of production of lead enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The tin market has a strong upward trend due to supply disruptions and supported terminal consumption [1]. - The aluminum market faces challenges such as reduced overseas bauxite arrivals and unsmooth destocking, resulting in a rebound under pressure [1][14]. - The nickel market has a situation of over - supply in refined nickel and uncertain downstream consumption of stainless steel, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19]. - The industrial silicon market has a situation of reduced supply and increased downstream stocking, with short - term cost support and high inventory coexisting [1]. - The polysilicon market has production uncertainties in October, but strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - The lithium carbonate market has increasing production and continuous destocking. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [1][22][23]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver have reached new highs, supported by risk events such as the US government shutdown and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver follows the trend of gold and is also supported by other metal sentiments and strong demand [3][1]. - **Strategy**: Long - term multi - orders can be held over the holiday, and short - term multi - orders should be held lightly. Pay attention to short - term sentiment fluctuations if the US fiscal bill is resolved [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper has reached a new high this year, with an increase in the closing price of the main contract and changes in various indicators such as inventory and price differentials [5][6]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the supply contraction expectation of the copper smelting industry is increasing. High copper prices suppress demand, and the domestic social inventory has increased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative multi - orders are recommended to take profit and prepare for empty or light positions during the holiday. Long - term strategic multi - orders can be held, and industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with changes in price, trading volume, inventory, and other indicators [9][10]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is relatively loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has decreased, and the risk of soft squeezing in LME zinc continues. However, in the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease [10][11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty or hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite arrivals are expected to decrease, domestic aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and downstream processing industry start - up rates have slightly increased [14]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises [15]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel has slightly recovered [17]. - **Logic**: The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is uncertain [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, with the late - session gains narrowing [21]. - **Logic**: Supply has not significantly contracted, demand has released positive signals, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73500 - 75000] [23].