先看那边火得冒烟的美债。避险是硬逻辑。特朗普关税大棒把全球供应链搅得天翻地覆，股市跟着忽上 忽下，机构干脆把钱从高风险资产里撤出来，躲进被视作"保险柜"的美国国债。 更诱人的是利率。美联储在9月把基准利率再压25个基点，落到4.00%-4.25%。利率往下，债券价格就 往上，提前埋伏的玩家眼看账面浮盈，乐得合不拢嘴，这也是他们提前抢筹的底气。 此外，美元依旧是全球清算"通用钥匙"。美国资本市场盘子大、交易顺、规则透明，就算华盛顿偶尔闹 情绪，资金还是爱去。另外，持仓榜单上的老熟人也在加码：日本握着1.151万亿美元继续坐头把交 椅，7月还多添了38亿美元；英国账户里接近9000亿美元，单月增幅大约5%，其中不少是全球基金经伦 敦转的票据。 你抛美债，我抛中债！外资陆续减持中国债，更多资金流向美国？ 说来有意思，2025年上半年债券圈像打了鸡血：一边是美债价格越走越高，外资持仓在7月份冲到9.159 万亿美元创纪录；另一边，外资三个月甩出3700亿元人民币的中债。冷热交替，让"资金是不是全往美 国跑"成了茶余话题。 与此同时，中国自己也在调仓。7月份官方减持257亿美元美债，仓位降至7307亿美元，创下2009 ...

高盛指出，在高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁之后，日本长期政府债券的波动性正在上升，且其影响可能蔓延至远至美国和英国的债券市场。 高盛策略师Bill Zu及其团队在一份报告中写道，高市早苗的上任可能推高日本长期收益率。策略师们表示，每发生10个基点的"日本国债特异性冲 击"，预计将给美国、德国和英国的收益率带来约2至3个基点的上行压力。 今年以来，日本国债的走势一直是全球同类债券的风向标，这个亚洲国家的超长期国债收益率飙升，放大了由财政赤字扩大担忧所引发的市场动 荡。高盛的警告使市场焦点更加集中在长期债券上。随着各国政府加大借贷力度，且通胀被证明比预期更为顽固，长期债券已受到密切关注。 高盛策略师表示："日本今年一直是全球长期利率看跌冲击的净输出国。我们预计高市早苗当选自民党总裁的消息将导致日本长期国债收益率上升 和收益率曲线陡峭化。" 据悉，高市早苗主张财政扩张和政治右倾立场，被视为已故首相安倍晋三的门徒。她呼吁保持宽松货币政策，认为日本央行不应加息。由于交易员 押注高市早苗的亲刺激立场可能促使日本当局发行更多政府债券，以为家庭减税和刺激经济提供资金，日本40年期国债收益率周一大涨14个基点。 美国和新西兰的主权 ...

转自：新华财经 本周市场情况 一级市场： 据新华财经统计，本周（9月29日 - 10月3日）共发行11笔中资离岸债券，其中包括1笔离岸人民币债券、5笔美元债券、4笔港币债券、1 笔欧元债券，发行规模分别为5亿元人民币、10.77亿美元、15.2亿港币、1亿欧元。本周发行方式为直接发行的债券共9只，直接发行+担 保发行的债券共2只。 10月3日，奥园集团发布公告，截至2025年9月30日，发行人无法按计划完成"H20奥园1""H21奥园"原定兑付事项，根据经持有人会议审 议通过的有效议案，上述两只债券均存在30个交易日宽限期。根据宽限期相关条款约定，若公司在该宽限期内对本期债券到期本息进行 了足额偿付或通过债券持有人会议予以豁免或展期，则不构成发行人对本期债券的违约。 本周市场要闻 在离岸人民币债券领域，本周人民币企业债单笔最大发行规模为5亿元人民币，本周人民币债券发行最高票息1.96%，均由中信建投证券 股份有限公司发行。 在中资美元债券市场，本周美元企业债单笔最大发行规模约0.97亿美元，本周美元债发行最高票息4.191%，均由友邦保险控股有限公司 发行。 二级速览： 本周中资美元债收益率小幅上涨。截至北京 ...

随着被视为已故日本首相安倍晋三门徒的高市早苗赢得执政党党首选举，日本金融市场正迅速为"安倍经济学"的可能回归进行定价。 高市早苗即将成为日本新任首相，市场预期她将重启以大规模财政刺激和超宽松货币政策为核心的经济议程，这迅速点燃了日本股市，并引发了 外汇市场的剧烈波动。 周一东京市场开盘后，日经225指数应声大涨超过4%，创下数月来最大单日涨幅，日本东证指数涨3%。 与此同时，日元兑美元汇率大幅走弱1.5%，逼近150这一备受关注的关键水平。而日元兑欧元汇率已跌至历史新低。 "安倍经济学"继承者的政策蓝图 据央视新闻，当地时间10月4日，日本执政党自民党总裁选举结果揭晓，高市早苗击败小泉进次郎等多名竞争对手，成功当选自民党新一任总裁。 而高市早苗的经济政策主张带有鲜明的"安倍经济学"烙印。在当选后的新闻发布会上，她承诺将迅速采取措施应对通胀，政策选项包括增加对地 方政府的补贴，甚至不排除将消费税下调。 债券市场同样上演剧烈波动，对未来财政扩张的担忧推动长期利率走高，日本40年期国债收益率一度飙升14个基点至3.52%。 这些走势反映出投资者正在积极部署所谓的"高市早苗交易"（Takaichi trade）。华尔 ...

这轮金价上涨早就不是"小打小闹"，而是一场横跨两年的"持久战"。2024年9月美联储开启降息周期后，叠加中东地缘冲突的避险需求，金价就摸到了 2585.97美元/盎司的新高；到2025年3月14日，现货黄金干脆一举冲破3000美元整数关，创下历史首次。而10月5日这波深夜暴涨，只是延续了强势势头—— 伦敦金现涨到3885.52美元，黄金T+D突破870元/克，几乎所有黄金相关品种都在跟涨。 推涨的力量主要来自三股势力。首先是全球央行的"购金潮"，2024年波兰央行增持90吨，土耳其增持75吨，中国央行也连续多月保持购金节奏，这些官方需 求成了金价的"定盘星"。其次是美元信用的动摇，2025年数据显示，黄金与美元指数的负相关性高达-96%，远超历史均值，美元走弱直接成了金价的"助推 器"。最后是市场对美国经济的担忧，美债占GDP比例已接近二战时期水平，投资者纷纷把黄金当成"安全垫"，这种避险需求让金价即便在美债利率高位时 也能逆势上涨 。 二、黄金储备撞上美债：美国的"资产魔法"能奏效吗？ 美国手里的8000吨黄金储备（约2.6亿盎司），在金价暴涨后成了"隐形财富"。按2025年2900美元/盎司的市价算，这些 ...

Core Insights - Since 2022, China has cumulatively reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $309.6 billion, coinciding with a government shutdown crisis in the U.S. [1][7] - The U.S. government shutdown is a result of long-standing partisan divisions, leading to budgetary deadlocks that prevent funding [3][5] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury bond purchases by the Federal Reserve, due to inflationary pressures, has exacerbated the fiscal situation of the U.S. government [6][7] Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown - The shutdown is not an isolated incident but a culmination of ongoing political polarization, making it difficult for parties to reach a compromise on fiscal policies [5][6] - The shutdown has significant implications, including the suspension of government services and unpaid leave for federal employees [3][5] Group 2: China's Reduction of U.S. Treasury Bonds - China's reduction of U.S. Treasury bonds is a strategic decision based on a thorough analysis of the current international economic landscape, reflecting concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and monetary policy uncertainty [8][10] - The cumulative reduction includes $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, $57.3 billion in 2024, and $28.3 billion in early 2025, bringing China's remaining U.S. Treasury holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2009 [7][8] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The shift in China's investment strategy is influenced by the changing global economic landscape and increasing tensions in U.S.-China relations, prompting a reassessment of its previous reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds [10][12] - China's growing economic and international influence positions it as a significant player in global trade and finance, which is recognized by U.S. officials, including former President Trump, who called for negotiations with China during the shutdown [12][13]

Bond Market Overview - Bond yields are rising despite weaker-than-expected economic data, particularly in the service sector [1][2] - Two-year and 10-year yields are up several basis points during the session, but down about eight basis points for the week [3] Economic Data Impact - The disappointing service sector data raised questions about both sides of the Federal Reserve's mandate, particularly regarding the labor market [2] - Prices paid in the service sector showed a slight increase, which is not favorable for inflation control [1] Technical Analysis - The NASDAQ index is showing a higher high and a lower low compared to the previous day, indicating potential volatility [4] - A close below the previous day's low could signal a key reversal from all-time highs, which would be technically significant and potentially bearish [4]

Market Overview - The Dow is experiencing a triple-digit gain, with the S&P up by 15 points and the NASDAQ increasing by 52 points [1] Fixed Income Strategy - The current environment is favorable for fixed income, particularly with the Federal Reserve potentially cutting rates, making yields attractive [2] - Focus is on higher quality credit, with a preference for municipal bonds due to strong fundamentals, including robust rainy day funds and high savings rates [3][4] - Senior loans and emerging market debt are also being considered, especially as tariff-related issues have stabilized [5] Economic Concerns - There are concerns about a slowing economy, particularly in the employment market, which could be impacted by a government shutdown [6] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 28th may see the Fed lacking sufficient data to make informed rate cut decisions [7] Earnings Outlook - Third quarter earnings are expected to show strong year-over-year growth, with a consensus forecast of 8.8%, primarily driven by technology stocks [8] Valuation Insights - U.S. markets are trading at a premium compared to historical averages, largely due to the influence of technology and artificial intelligence [9] AI and Market Trends - The current landscape of AI investments is seen as different from the late 1990s bubble, with companies being larger and more profitable [15] - The structural trend of AI is expected to drive U.S. stocks higher, despite potential short-term volatility [16] - Historical data suggests that when the S&P is up significantly year-to-date, markets tend to end higher by year-end [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of "confidence" in the Chinese economy, likening it to a theatrical play titled "Waiting for Confidence," where confidence is a crucial yet elusive element for economic recovery [4][6]. Group 1: Importance of Confidence - Confidence is described as a "metaphysical" element that drives economic actions and decisions, transforming uncertainty into actionable expectations [6][8]. - The article emphasizes that confidence cannot be artificially created through policies or data alone; it exists in the collective consciousness of individuals [8][22]. Group 2: Case Study of Argentina - Argentina serves as a case study where confidence was temporarily restored through external intervention, specifically a $200 billion currency swap line from the U.S. Treasury, which provided a significant credit backing to the Argentine central bank [12][14]. - Historical parallels are drawn to past crises, such as the 1994-1995 Mexican Tequila Crisis, where similar confidence-boosting measures were effective [14][15]. Group 3: Challenges in Restoring Confidence - Despite temporary boosts in confidence, the article questions whether it can be sustained, highlighting that market participants remain skeptical and risk premiums are still high [21][22]. - The political landscape in Argentina poses a significant challenge, as any signs of failure in reforms can lead to a rapid loss of confidence among investors [21][22].

Core Points - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.67%, the highest level since July 2008 [1] - The Ministry of Finance set the coupon rate for the upcoming 10-year bonds at 1.7%, an increase from 1.5% in the previous quarter, marking a 17-year high [4] - The rise in long-term interest rates is driven by expectations of an early interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [4] Summary by Category Government Bonds - The coupon rate for the 10-year government bonds has been adjusted to 1.7%, reflecting a significant increase from the previous rate of 1.5% [4] - The increase in interest rates may lead to higher debt servicing costs for the government, raising concerns about fiscal pressure [4] Monetary Policy - Two policy committee members of the Bank of Japan proposed raising the policy rate to around 0.75% during the September monetary policy meeting, contributing to market expectations of a rate hike in October [4] - The ruling party's minority status in both houses of parliament has heightened vigilance regarding fiscal expansion, which is also a factor contributing to the rise in long-term interest rates [4]