Group 1 - The proportion of single-person households increased from 8.30% in 2000 to 25.39% in 2020, while two-person households rose from 17.05% to 29.68%, indicating a shift towards childless families becoming the mainstream, with single populations reaching 240 million [1] - The traditional role of marriage is evolving from a necessity for survival to a financial burden, leading to a complete rewrite of ordinary people's financial logic influenced by income, employment, marriage, and family dynamics [1] - The old wealth paradigms have been disrupted, and new capital opportunities are emerging in the market [1] Group 2 - In 2025, Hangzhou experienced a significant decline in the real estate market, with the once-popular Regal International facing vacancies and landlords willing to accept lower rents and flexible payment options [2][4] - The hourly wage for e-commerce live streamers dropped from 160 yuan to 80 yuan, reflecting a shift in the job market as many graduates compete for these positions [2] Group 3 - The e-commerce penetration rate in China has declined from 27.6% in 2023 to 25%, marking the first continuous drop in the history of Chinese e-commerce [5] - The current economic climate indicates a transition from material consumption to emotional consumption, suggesting potential new opportunities for the real economy [5][6] - The decline in consumer interest in traditional e-commerce is attributed to the saturation of material goods in households, leading to a shift in purchasing behavior [8] Group 4 - The pet market in China is projected to reach 300 billion yuan, with the number of pets surpassing that of children under four years old, indicating a shift in consumer priorities [10] - The rise of emotional consumption is evident in various sectors, including outdoor sports and wellness products, which are gaining popularity among younger consumers [10][12] - The changing social structure, characterized by declining birth and marriage rates, is reshaping consumer behavior towards individual and emotional needs rather than traditional family-oriented spending [13][14] Group 5 - The elderly population in China is expected to exceed 300 million by 2024, leading to an increase in solitary living situations and a growing market for products catering to emotional well-being [15] - The shift from traditional family spending to individual consumption reflects a broader societal change where personal satisfaction takes precedence over collective family needs [15][16] - The evolution of consumer preferences indicates a move towards experiences and emotional fulfillment rather than mere material acquisition, highlighting a maturation of the Chinese consumer market [16][19]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential of overseas markets and selective domestic demand as key investment themes for 2026, highlighting the high certainty of performance growth driven by international expansion and the favorable valuation of core targets [2][4][8]. - The report identifies a divergence in performance among leading companies in the new consumption sector, with a focus on those capable of overseas production and distribution [8]. Industry Overview - The light industry manufacturing sector saw a growth of approximately 12% from January to November 2025, ranking 17th among 31 sub-sectors [12][18]. - Key drivers for the sector's performance included asset restructuring and the emergence of new consumption trends, particularly in segments like tiles, flooring, and home furnishings [12][18]. Sub-industry Investment Recommendations - **Packaging**: Companies like Yutong, Inke, and Baosteel are recommended for their strong overseas delivery capabilities and cost advantages [8]. - **Export**: Companies with robust overseas manufacturing and multi-market operations, such as Gongchuang Turf and Yongyi Co., are highlighted [8]. - **Paper**: The report suggests investing in leading firms like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper, as the paper cycle is at a low point with price increases expected [8]. - **Pet Products**: The sector is anticipated to stabilize, with recommendations for brands transitioning to premium products, such as Yiyi Co. [8]. - **Trendy Toys**: Companies like Pop Mart are recommended due to their strong market position and expansion potential in overseas markets [8]. - **Tobacco**: The report is optimistic about the HNB industry and recommends companies like Smoore International [8]. - **Home Furnishings**: Despite ongoing pressures in the real estate sector, companies like Bull Group and Gujia Home are expected to find growth opportunities [8]. - **Personal Care**: The report sees potential in brands adapting to online strategies and new retail channels, recommending companies like Baiya Co. and Dengkang Oral [8]. Financial Performance Review - The packaging and printing sector showed strong recovery with double-digit growth, while the personal care sector experienced structural differentiation in performance [22][23]. - The report provides a detailed financial performance overview, indicating a recovery in revenue growth and profitability metrics across various segments [23][24]. Fund Holdings Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the light industry sector decreased to 2.08% in Q3 2025, with notable declines in the paper, packaging, and personal care segments [28][31]. - Leading companies in fund holdings include Pop Mart, Sun Paper, and Xiangxin Home, reflecting investor sentiment towards growth-oriented firms [31][33].

Core Insights - In November 2025, 14 new consumer-related projects completed financing, totaling approximately 900 million RMB, with notable projects including "LAN" and "Thunderbird Innovation" not disclosing specific amounts [1] - The financing landscape includes 7 food and beverage projects, 3 in smart technology, and single projects in new retail, apparel, beauty, and pet sectors [1] Group 1: Food and Beverage Sector - The food sector saw 5 completed financings, with "Xianbing Sister" and "Houxishi" being restaurant chains, while "Maisen" is a professional sports nutrition brand under Mengniu Group, and "Ruiyun Cold Chain" and "Jiajixian" are backend supply chain companies [1] - Mengniu Group announced its entry into the professional sports nutrition market in February 2023, launching the "Maisen" brand, which has been recognized for its performance and market presence [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Innovations - "Ruiyun Cold Chain," established in 2020, focuses on enhancing cold chain logistics efficiency through digitalization and has established a cross-border cold chain network in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong [3] - "Jiajixian," founded in 2019, specializes in AI-driven fresh supply chain services, ensuring product freshness and quality through comprehensive monitoring from source to consumer [3] Group 3: Coffee and Beverage Brands - "Xinyue NEAVES" and "Bixing Coffee" have completed financing, with Bixing Coffee's recent round being particularly noteworthy as it marks its fourth financing amidst a competitive market [4][5] - Bixing Coffee has expanded its franchise model, surpassing 500 signed stores nationwide since opening its first store in Suzhou in 2022 [4] Group 4: Beauty and Personal Care - "LAN," a clean beauty brand, received minority investment from L'Oréal's Shanghai Meici Fang Investment Co., marking L'Oréal's first investment in a local skincare brand [7] - "LAN" has achieved significant sales success, leading the market in facial oil sales for two consecutive years, with its products entering the "billion club" [7] Group 5: Market Challenges and Trends - The bankruptcy of POLYVOLY Technology highlights the challenges faced by brands that rapidly scaled without sustainable foundations, indicating a shift away from the era of quick brand creation through capital and traffic [8] - In the pet sector, Yunnan Hezhong Lian Investment completed a 12 million RMB angel round financing, while "Paiteshengxian," a pet fresh food venture, announced the closure of all offline stores due to unsatisfactory performance [8][9]

Macro and Strategy - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is facing a personnel change that will influence future policy direction and independence boundaries, with a key focus on the upcoming 2026 board member replacements [7][8] - The current structure of the FOMC, with a mix of "core dependent" and "institutional defense" members, will determine the continuation of its independence, with potential shifts in policy power dynamics anticipated [8] - The report predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to enter a phase of "political rate cuts," with increased uncertainty in decision-making frameworks [9] Industry and Company Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The investment strategy for December 2025 highlights an expected reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending key stocks in the dairy farming sector such as Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [13] - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in meat and milk prices, driven by a synchronized recovery in the livestock sector, with leading companies expected to experience significant earnings recovery [13][14] - Recommendations include leading companies in various segments: livestock (Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming), pork (Hua Tong, De Kang), and pet food (Guaibao Pet) [15][17] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline of 1.80% recently, with A-share food and beverage indices underperforming the broader market [18][19] - The report identifies a divergence in performance across categories, with alcoholic beverages facing supply-demand imbalances, while dairy products are expected to see gradual recovery [19][20] - Investment recommendations focus on high-potential companies in the beverage sector, such as Nongfu Spring and East Peak Beverage, as well as premium liquor brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Moutai [19][20] Real Estate - The real estate market is experiencing significant pressure, with a 9.6% year-on-year decline in sales volume and a 6.8% drop in sales area from January to October 2025 [25][26] - The report notes that while non-popular cities are seeing population outflows, local residents still have improvement-driven housing demands, which could stabilize the market [26][28] - Recommendations include focusing on companies that are well-positioned in non-popular cities, such as China Overseas Land & Investment, which can leverage local demand for housing improvements [28] Internet and AI - The report highlights advancements in AI technology, with significant product launches from companies like OpenAI and Tencent, indicating a growing trend in AI applications across various sectors [29][30] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on internet giants that are leveraging AI for growth, with recommendations for Alibaba and Tencent as key players benefiting from AI integration [30] - The report also notes the potential for AI to enhance advertising and cloud service revenues for these companies, suggesting a positive outlook for their financial performance [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, presenting opportunities for investment at the bottom of the market [3][4] - The poultry sector's fundamentals are expected to improve, with a focus on marginal changes in the cycle [4][5] - The animal health sector is closely monitoring the progress of African swine fever vaccine clinical trials, which could enhance the industry's competitive landscape [6][7] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging and improving profitability [9][10] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in November was 11.69 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/kg [15] - The number of breeding sows as of the end of October was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [15][16] - Investment suggestions include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with a focus on low-cost performance and dividend increases [16] Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broiler parent stock chicks was 41 yuan/set, down 6 yuan from the previous week [31] - The poultry sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with a recommendation for companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [32] Animal Health - The profitability of self-breeding pigs has been negative for over two months, impacting the animal health sector [40] - Companies like Bio-Pharmaceuticals and Keqian Bio are recommended due to their strong business layouts and customer resources [6][40] Planting Industry - The price of corn was 2229 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8% [45] - Companies with early reserves in genetically modified seeds are recommended, including Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [50] Feed Industry - The price of feed for fattening pigs was 3.32 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [51] - The feed industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for Haida Group and He Feng Stock [52] Pet Industry - The pet consumption market in urban China is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Stock, with a focus on the pet medical sector as well [59]

Market Overview - Overseas market risk appetite has rebounded, while A/H market sentiment has declined as supportive consumption policies for next year have yet to materialize[1] - Weekly performance of sectors shows overseas sportswear leading with a 2.9% increase, followed by overseas cosmetics at 2.0%[11] - Year-to-date performance highlights gold and jewelry sector leading with a 138.2% increase, while overseas sportswear has declined by 13.8%[11] Sector Performance - The overseas sportswear sector's expected PE for 2025 is 31.1 times, which is 58% of the past five-year average[14] - The domestic sportswear sector's expected PE for 2025 is 14.2 times, representing 74% of the past five-year average[14] - The gold and jewelry sector's expected PE for 2025 is 23.7 times, which is 45% of the past five-year average[14] Key Stock Ratings - Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, and Haier Smart Home are rated as "Outperform"[1] - Lulu Lemon is rated as "Neutral," while other stocks like Anta Sports and Gree Electric are also rated "Outperform"[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market has surged, maintaining high expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve[6] - The core CPI data for September was reported at 2.8%, the highest since April, aligning with market expectations[6] Risks - Potential risks include changes in consumer and economic environments, intensified market competition, and tariff risks[10]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the livestock and pet industries, while highlighting ongoing challenges in pig farming due to supply pressures and price adjustments [2][5][9]. Livestock Industry Overview - Pig farming is experiencing downward price adjustments due to increased supply from smallholders and insufficient demand for cured products, leading to a supply-demand struggle [9][18]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.38% in November, indicating a potential acceleration in capacity reduction [21][9]. - As of December 4, the average price for market pigs was 11.30 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.57% [32][33]. - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 167.69 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 259.39 CNY per head for purchased piglets reported [39][42]. Poultry Industry Insights - The poultry sector is seeing a rise in white chicken prices, with an average price of 7.27 CNY/kg as of December 5, up 1.11% week-on-week [40][44]. - The ongoing outbreaks of avian influenza in overseas markets are expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry in the medium to long term [40][41]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health industry is under pressure due to a decline in demand linked to the overall losses in pig farming, with significant year-on-year decreases in vaccine approvals [50]. - However, the development of new vaccines, including progress in African swine fever vaccine trials, may provide a boost to the sector [50]. Seed Industry Trends - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybean have shown slight increases, with wheat prices at 2515 CNY/ton, corn at 2357 CNY/ton, and soybean meal at 3111 CNY/ton as of December 5 [53][55]. - The USDA's November report indicates a decrease in global corn and soybean stocks, which may impact future pricing and availability [54][57]. Pet Industry Developments - The pet food export market faced a decline, with October exports amounting to 772 million CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year [58][60]. - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with e-commerce sales in October increasing by 19% year-on-year, driven by strong performances from local brands [61][62]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw significant sales growth for domestic pet brands, indicating a shift towards local products in the market [62].

Core Insights - The pet economy in Shenzhen is experiencing explosive growth, with the industry scale expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2024 and 22,000 new related enterprises registered this year [2][5] - Shenzhen is forming a comprehensive industrial chain covering the entire lifecycle of pets, moving beyond traditional models focused on food and breeding to include high-value segments like smart feeding devices and pet medical equipment [2][3] Industry Development - Shenzhen's pet industry has established a development system that balances technological innovation and market-driven growth, becoming a vivid example of the integration of modern service and advanced manufacturing industries [2] - Bao'an District is highlighted as a key engine for Shenzhen's pet economy, with approximately 400 medical device manufacturing companies, the highest among all districts in the city, covering the entire chain from diagnosis to vaccine development and pet medicine production [3] Market Potential - The younger demographic, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, is driving industry upgrades by viewing pets as companions and being willing to spend on pet-related services [5] - Shenzhen has pioneered various pet-related services, including the establishment of pet-themed parks and the introduction of the first "pet waiting lounge" at an airport in China, addressing travel challenges for pet owners [5] Future Directions - The city aims to avoid low-level repetitive construction by guiding the industry towards clustering and high-end development, focusing on high-value segments such as smart pet products and pet healthcare [5] - With the goal of becoming a "pet-friendly city" and implementing supportive policies, Shenzhen is expected to transition from a major pet consumption market to a globally influential "pet manufacturing hub" [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 2025年12月08日 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月投资策略 优于大市 牧业大周期反转预计在即，核心推荐港股奶牛养殖标的 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头），现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：11 月末生猪 11.25 元/公斤，月环比-10%，7kg 仔猪价格约 216 元/头，月环比+18%。2）禽：11 月末白鸡毛鸡价格 7.10 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as core investments [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are leaders in their respective sectors [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly by 2027 [14][40] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure on production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, prompting faster culling of dairy cows [14][40] Swine Sector - The swine sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend potential as industry capacity contracts [1][15] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of leading swine companies is at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [15][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, which is entering a consumption peak [24][30] - The report notes that the price of broiler chickens has shown a slight recovery, with a projected increase in profitability for leading poultry companies [24][30] Pet Sector - The pet industry is identified as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and emotional consumer trends [16][20] - The report recommends leading pet food companies, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product upgrades and direct sales transformations [20][16] Feed Sector - The feed sector is highlighted for its deepening industrialization and clear division of labor, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of corn has increased by 4% month-on-month, while soybean meal prices are at historical lows, indicating a potential for future recovery [2][22] - The report also mentions that the egg market is under pressure from supply increases, while the demand for soybeans is tightening in the medium to long term [2][18]