Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is showing signs of upward momentum, with the total A-share index rising by 0.60% and trading volume increasing by 467 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is attempting to establish new narratives, which historically accompany successful breakthroughs of previous highs at year-end [1][2] - The report suggests that the index is approaching previous highs, with the total A-share index breaking through 6400 points, nearing the highs of October and November [2] Group 2 - The report identifies strong performance in specific sectors, particularly defense, military, and communication industries, which have successfully broken through previous high points, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these sectors [2] - The commercial aerospace sector has led the market with a cumulative increase of 31.12% since November 24, and its trading volume has reached a historical high of 6.05% of total A-share trading volume [3] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with short-term bonds showing a downward trend while long-term bonds are under pressure due to rising yields influenced by equity market movements [4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the commodity market has shifted from a broad rally to a more differentiated performance, with precious metals experiencing a decline while industrial metals remain resilient [6] - The report emphasizes that the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short-term volatility may arise due to profit-taking after significant price increases [7] - The report discusses the dynamics in the polysilicon industry, where price increases are being driven by supply-side adjustments, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]

Policy Insights - The GDP target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies not being strong stimulus but rather supportive measures[5][9]. - Monetary policy is projected to see a 10 basis point rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut, consistent with 2025[5][24]. - The fiscal deficit rate is anticipated to stay at 4%, with total debt slightly increasing, maintaining fiscal efforts similar to 2025[5][24]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to be stable, but structural differentiation may occur, with real housing demand declining due to slowed urbanization[5][36]. - Real estate sales are projected to decrease by 10% in 2026, continuing the downward trend from 2025[5][37]. - Manufacturing investment is likely to remain low, with a growth rate of 3-4% anticipated due to ongoing capacity surplus issues[5][47]. Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise slightly to around 0.5% in 2026, driven by reduced drag from pork and energy prices[5][79]. - Core CPI is projected to maintain resilience, supporting overall CPI growth, with a historical average around 0.8%[5][88]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull market, driven by technology and cyclical sectors, with institutional funds poised to enter the market[5][5]. - The total balance of institutional funds is over 100 trillion yuan, with an estimated 1.5-5 trillion yuan ready to enter the equity market[5][5]. Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential underperformance in infrastructure investment[5][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to rebound strongly in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, while the market structure remains highly differentiated. The article discusses how to seize new opportunities in 2026 from four perspectives: future debate, allocation debate, current debate, and strategy debate [3]. Future Debate - China is unlikely to repeat Japan's lost decades due to its superior innovation capabilities and irreplaceability in the global market. The Chinese economy's rise has diminished Japan's industrial advantages, and the market has shifted from being viewed as "uninvestable" to having "strategic allocation value" [3][9][10]. - The historical context of Japan's economic stagnation post-1990s is contrasted with China's current trajectory, emphasizing that China's innovation in technology and manufacturing is advancing rapidly [7][8]. Allocation Debate - The influx of new capital into the stock market is driven by asset reallocation from residents and financial institutions in a low-interest-rate environment. The real estate market's downturn has transformed it from a source of capital diversion to a driver of stock market growth [4][12]. - High-net-worth individuals and insurance funds are leading this asset reallocation, which is characterized as rational and gradual rather than speculative [12][14]. Current Debate - The article raises concerns about whether AI capital expenditure expectations can be met, highlighting the potential for AI to be a significant technological revolution. However, the high profit margins in the industry may limit the overall economic growth associated with AI [5][19]. - The article discusses the challenges of achieving the necessary revenue growth to support the anticipated capital expenditures in the AI sector, suggesting that the required income increments are substantial compared to the current GDP [20][21]. Strategy Debate - The outlook for 2026 remains positive, but investors should temper their return expectations. The ongoing asset reallocation process is expected to sustain market resilience, with a focus on defensive strategies and identifying opportunities in technology and advanced manufacturing sectors [26][27]. - Specific sectors to watch include: - **Technology**: Continued investment in AI applications and companies that can leverage AI for efficiency [29]. - **Advanced Manufacturing**: Growth in sectors related to AI and robotics, with a focus on domestic cycles and equipment upgrades [30]. - **Consumer**: Identifying resilient companies in traditional sectors that can maintain performance despite broader economic challenges [31]. - **Military**: Anticipated recovery in the military sector as procurement cycles normalize [31]. - **Real Estate**: Looking for structural opportunities in real estate services and resilient developers amid ongoing market adjustments [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic strategies for asset allocation in 2026, emphasizing the importance of understanding economic cycles and the need for wealth management upgrades. The proposed strategy focuses on "risk premium decline, profit increase, and structural differentiation" as a framework for investment decisions [1][2]. Growth Factors - The expected GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is projected at 4.9% for real GDP and 5.2% for nominal GDP, indicating a moderate recovery characterized by a "stable real and rising nominal" trend. This recovery is supported by proactive fiscal policies and monetary easing, which bolster infrastructure and foster new productive capacities [3]. - Corporate profitability is anticipated to improve, with industrial profit margins expected to rise to 5.8%-6.0% and return on equity (ROE) for listed companies increasing to 9.5%-10%. This improvement is driven by supply-side reforms and a recovery in pricing power [4][5]. Inflation Factors - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately to a central value of 0.5% in 2026, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to turn positive in the third quarter, with an annual average of -0.4%. This reflects a weak recovery in consumption and a gradual alleviation of production pressures [6]. Liquidity Factors - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain low, with a "low first, high later" trend. The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is likely to be reduced by 10 basis points, aligning with growth stabilization policies while avoiding excessive pressure on bank profitability [7]. - The expected range for the USD/CNY exchange rate in 2026 is between 6.80 and 7.15, indicating a "first rise, then stabilize" pattern influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved foreign exchange supply-demand dynamics [7]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - Equity assets are likely to enter a "profit-driven" golden period, with a focus on new productive capacities and cyclical goods benefiting from PPI recovery expectations. This shift represents a significant change in risk asset pricing [10]. - The bond market is expected to exhibit "low volatility and narrow fluctuations," with a balanced approach to liquidity and yield. The reduction in LPR is favorable for high-rated credit bonds [10]. - Indirect investment tools such as wealth management products and funds are expected to benefit from the "residential savings migration," serving as a transitional option for conservative investors [10]. - The attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets is expected to increase, suggesting a moderate allocation to RMB-denominated equities and bonds to mitigate single currency risks [11].

Group 1 - The core driving factors for the recent appreciation of the offshore RMB against the USD include a shift in economic focus towards domestic demand and consumption, significant gold purchases by the central bank, and a weakening USD due to market conditions [1][4][5] - The offshore RMB has seen a strong upward trend, breaking the 7.0 mark against the USD, reaching 6.9999, the highest since October 2024, with onshore RMB also surpassing 7.02 [1][2] - The appreciation trend began in late November 2025, with onshore and offshore RMB appreciating over 900 and 1000 basis points respectively, with annual appreciation rates of 3.7% and 4.4% [4][5] Group 2 - The international metal market has experienced a surge in prices, with spot gold exceeding $4500 per ounce, silver above $70 per ounce, and copper reaching $12000 per ton, all setting historical peaks [2] - Domestic exporters are increasingly converting their foreign currency receipts into RMB immediately upon arrival, indicating a shift in behavior due to currency fluctuations [2][5] Group 3 - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit several industries, particularly the non-ferrous metals sector, which is closely tied to price movements and performance in the context of global liquidity [9] - Import-dependent industries such as paper manufacturing, aviation, and oil refining will also benefit from the RMB appreciation, as it reduces costs for raw materials priced in USD [11][12][16] - Financial institutions, including banks and brokerages, are likely to see increased opportunities due to foreign capital inflows and the appreciation of RMB-denominated assets [16] Group 4 - The appreciation of the RMB may put pressure on export-oriented industries, which will need to find ways to balance profit margins amid rising costs and competitive pricing challenges [18] - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals and paper manufacturing, which are expected to resonate positively with the appreciation and price increases, while consumer and pharmaceutical sectors may also attract foreign investment [18]

美国 AI 投资拉动内需，货币财政双宽托 底—2026 年海外宏观展望 2025 年 12 月 24 日 宏观经济 深度报告 | | | 投资摘要： 2026 年全球发达国家多数仍将处于降息通道，但同步性下降。欧洲发达国家的失业率均有所回升，2025 年降息背景下制造 业景气度均有所回升，但经济增速仍处于低位，具备进一步降息的条件。澳大利亚或有所延迟，日本继续加息。 美国经济处于前期高通胀加息周期结束后的软着陆的中后段，内生性动能减弱。软在于消费尚可，AI 支撑投资，着陆表现为 消费弱于去年，劳动力市场全面降温，家庭和企业部门信贷增速处于低位，后两者具有经济危机部分衰退特征。特朗普全面 关税政策延缓了降息节奏，加剧了经济着陆的程度。消费是收入的体现，若劳动力市场进一步冷却，则消费的稳健性会得到 破坏。当前投资可能主要集中于 AI，尚未有明显的外溢效应。传统投资相对低迷，制造业就业仍在缓慢下降，与制造业 PMI 的回升及固定投资的表现吻合度较差。但 AI 投资规模已从总量上对宏观层面的固定投资起到了明显拉动作用，对冲了高利率 对总投资的抑制。 就业市场流动性进一步恶化，需要充分降息。雇佣率在 2025 年 4 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20251224 25Q3 美国 GDP：过时的数据，过度的反应 ——美国 2025 年三季度 GDP 数据点评 2025 年 12 月 24 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《2026 年转债策略：从收益增强转向 风险平衡》 2025-12-22 《技术帖：如何量化央行购金对金价 的影响？》 2025-12-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：25Q3 美国 GDP 季环比折年增长+4.3%，大幅好于彭博分析 师一致预期的+3.3%与亚特兰大联储 GDPNow 的+3.5%。从结构看，消 费强劲与库存拖累 ...

A500ETF基金紧密跟踪中证A500指数，中证A500指数从各行业选取市值较大、流动性较好的500只证券 作为指数样本，以反映各行业最具代表性上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证A500指数(000510)前十大权重股分别为宁德时代(300750)、贵州 茅台(600519)、中国平安(601318)、招商银行(600036)、紫金矿业(601899)、中际旭创(300308)、美的集 团(000333)、兴业银行(601166)、新易盛(300502)、长江电力(600900)，前十大权重股合计占比20.04%。 A500ETF基金(512050)，场外联接(华夏中证A500ETF联接A：022430；华夏中证A500ETF联接C： 022431；华夏中证A500ETF联接Y：022979)，相关指数基金(华夏中证A500指数增强A：023619；华夏 中证A500指数增强C：023620)， A500增强ETF基金（512370） 从资金净流入方面来看，A500ETF基金(512050)近16天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得28.78亿元净 流入，合计"吸金"137.8 ...

Economic Development Goals - The Shandong Provincial Economic Work Conference outlined the economic goals for 2026, emphasizing the need for a systematic approach to achieve quality and reasonable growth in the economy [1] - The conference highlighted the importance of integrating short-term goals with long-term planning to lay a solid foundation for high-quality economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Consumer Demand and Market Expansion - A key focus for 2026 is to significantly expand domestic demand, with initiatives to boost consumption through special actions and income increase plans for urban and rural residents [1] - Qingdao's strategy includes enhancing product quality and variety, promoting the "Lego Qingdao" brand, and developing a multi-faceted consumption network that combines online and offline channels [2] Modern Industrial System - Strengthening the modern industrial system is a priority, with a specific emphasis on cybersecurity as a growing demand in the new era [3] - Shandong Yusheng Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. aims to become a leading enterprise in the cybersecurity sector by developing innovative products and collaborating with various sectors [3] Foreign Trade and Open Economy - Despite challenges, Shandong's foreign trade showed resilience, with a total import and export value of 3.19 trillion yuan, a 4.6% increase year-on-year [4] - The conference called for enhanced high-level openness, including the implementation of free trade zone strategies and reforms to align with international trade standards [4] Aerospace Industry Development - The conference provided strategic guidance for the development of the Dongfang Aerospace Port, focusing on enhancing capabilities in solid and liquid rocket testing and exploring sea-based launch options [5] - The Dongfang Aerospace Port aims to build a comprehensive commercial aerospace industry system, leveraging innovation platforms to advance key technologies [5]

报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 金融工程丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 杠铃策略占优，电子板块优选组合超额显著 [Table_Summary] 本周 A 股市场震荡，微盘股领涨，中证红利表现较强，双创回调明显；聚焦红利内细分板块来 看，红利价值类别相对占优。从市场表现来看，本周 A 股必选消费和金融板块反弹明显，而信 息技术与硬件和工业板块相对较弱；聚焦电子板块内部来看，显示面板相对占优，领先于其他 子赛道。策略表现上，电子板块优选增强组合跑赢电子全收益指数，周度超额约 1.57%，优势 明显。 分析师及联系人 SFC：BUT353 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 主动量化产品周报（二十） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 杠铃策略占优，电子板块优选组合超额显著 [Table_Summary2] 自 2023 年 7 月以来，长江金工团队先后推出红利精选策略、行业高胜率策略等多款主动量化 产品，为投资者跟踪市场热点、精选行业个股提供另类视角和投资选择。为了更好地洞悉策略 表现和市场动态，特推出主动量化产品周报，跟踪内容包括 ...