Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy has boosted prices, but supply and demand performance is counterintuitive [2][7][67] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, exceeding the average decline since 2017 [2][67] - The increase in commodity prices is reflected in the raw material purchase price index (+3.1 percentage points to 51.5%) and the factory price index (+2.1 percentage points to 48.3%) [2][67] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has marginally declined, with production and new order indices both decreasing [4][70] - The production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while the new order index dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4% [4][70] - The new export order index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, indicating a slowdown in market demand [4][70][35] Key Industries - High-energy-consuming industries are showing production strength despite price increases, with the steel industry PMI rising by 4.6 percentage points to return to the expansion zone [3][18][69] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries saw PMIs decline by 1.1 and 0.9 percentage points to 50.3% and 49.5%, respectively [3][18][69] - Investment demand weakened significantly, contrasting with the strong production performance in high-energy-consuming sectors [21][69] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to a significant drop in the construction PMI [42][70] - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, with the new order index dropping sharply by 2.2 percentage points to 42.7% [5][58][70] - The service sector PMI slightly declined, with the new order index remaining weak at 46.3% [5][46][70] Future Outlook - The political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for further implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on the effects in downstream sectors and marginal changes in domestic demand [27][69] - The current situation indicates that the "anti-involution" policy in the upper reaches still requires further advancement, while high-energy-consuming industries are undergoing significant transformations [27][69]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" trend is driving a super cycle in commodities, particularly benefiting upstream resources and midstream materials, with the true focus being on the midstream sector [2][14] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" phenomenon is a precursor to debt reduction, indicating that future demand-side policies will be crucial following the recent supply-side adjustments [3][15] - The ROIC-WACC metric is identified as a key indicator for measuring "involution," with industries like coking coal and photovoltaic equipment being classified as "true involution" sectors that are poised for growth [4][16] Group 2 - The report recommends a stock portfolio for August 2025, including companies such as Dingjie Zhizhi (computing), Yuandong Biological (pharmaceuticals), and BYD (automotive), among others [6][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand-side policy implementation and potential liquidity pressures from overseas markets [5][13] - The report notes that the strong exchange rate is expected to support continued export strength, which may exceed market expectations [5][13]

螺纹钢：板块行情共振，偏强震荡 热轧卷板：板块行情共振，偏强震荡 2025 年 7 月 30 日 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 商 品 研 究 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,347 | 65 | 1.98 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,503 | 69 | 2.01 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 2,711,612 | 2,175,237 | 239,356 | | | HC2510 | 1,006,596 | 1,612,699 | 131,532 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3430 | 339 ...

2025 年 7 月 29 日 螺纹钢：板块行情共振，偏弱震荡 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,248 3,397 | -68 -80 | -2.05 -2.30 | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 3,414,713 | 1,935,881 | -62,771 | | | HC2510 | 1,255,676 | 1,481,167 | -73,396 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | （元/吨） 前日价格 | （元/吨） 涨跌 | | | 上海 | 3390 | 3430 | -40 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3430 | 3490 | -60 | | | 北京 | 3300 | 3360 | -60 | | 现货价格 | 广州 | 3440 | 3490 | -50 | | | 上海 | 3440 | 3500 | -60 | | | ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/07/28 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/21 | 2209 | 2294 | 2046 | 2236 | 2233 | 2162 | | 2025/07/22 | 2214 | 2298 | 2055 | 2259 | 2253 | 2172 | | 2025/07/23 | 2225 | 2316 | 2069 | 2266 | 2264 | 2181 | | 2025/07/24 | 2225 | 2317 | 2071 | 2263 | 2261 | 2174 | | 2025/07/25 | 2230 | 2318 | 2071 | 2269 | 2269 | 2174 | | 环比 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" concept is experiencing a temporary pullback, but this does not fundamentally change the valuation logic driven by policies aimed at regulating industry competition and promoting technological upgrades [1][3]. Market Performance - Coal ETF (515220) fell over 3%, Steel ETF (515210) dropped over 2%, while Building Materials ETF (159745) and Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) decreased nearly 1.5% [1]. - The market's pullback is seen as a release of high market sentiment rather than a reversal of underlying valuation logic [1]. Policy Implications - The core of the "anti-involution" policy focuses on standardizing industry competition, eliminating inefficient capacity, and reshaping the profit model of cyclical industries [1]. - Historical data shows that during the last supply-side reform from February 2016 to the end of 2017, the building materials industry rose by 45.75%, steel by 41.61%, and coal by 31.55% [1]. Investment Opportunities - Coal ETF (515220) has a market size exceeding 7 billion, tracking the China Coal Index [4]. - Steel ETF (515210) has surpassed 3 billion in size, tracking the China Steel Index [4]. - Building Materials ETF (159745) is the largest in its category with a size of 1.49 billion, tracking the China Building Materials Index [4]. - Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) has seen a net inflow exceeding 200 million for five consecutive days, tracking the China Photovoltaic Industry Index [4]. Economic Outlook - Citic Securities indicates that "anti-involution" may help stabilize the decline in PPI, and with demand-side expansion policies, a low-price state may be overcome [3]. - Huatai Securities suggests maintaining flexibility in trading strategies due to various events in August, while focusing on the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies in the medium term [3].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have jointly drafted the "Amendment Draft of the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment)" to address "involution - style" competition, with clear definitions of dumping, expanded scope, and new regulations on data - related price behavior [8]. - For the black sector, in the short - term (1 - 3 weeks), steel is in high - level oscillation, iron ore is under pressure, and coking coal is strong; in the medium - term (1 - 3 months), black commodities face correction pressure; in the long - term (1 - 3 quarters), the center of black commodities will rise again [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. "Today's Discovery" - The revised "Price Law" aims to address "involution - style" competition, with clearer rules on low - price dumping, expanded scope to include services, and new regulations on operators' use of data and algorithms [8]. 2. "Recommended by the Director" - **Black Sector**: - Short - term: Steel oscillates at a high level, iron ore is under pressure, and coking coal is strong. The logic is that coking coal supply has a production - cut expectation, policy stimulus is continuous, and there is a shortage of spot liquidity. Steel mills have a demand to replenish coking coal inventory. Iron ore supply is gradually increasing, and its price is over - valued [9][10]. - Medium - term: Black commodities face correction pressure due to the cooling of the "anti - involution" policy and high valuations, along with increased supply and potential spot liquidity surpluses [10]. - Long - term: The center of black commodities will rise as real estate destocking and new construction stabilize, and global manufacturing inventory replenishment boosts demand [10]. - Strategies: Gradually take profit on the 10 - 01 reverse spread of steel; hold the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore; pay attention to opportunities to narrow the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [10]. 3. "Commodity Research Morning Report" - **Precious Metals**: Gold oscillates downward, and silver breaks through and rises. Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 1 [14][19][21]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper lacks a clear driver and oscillates. Copper trend intensity is 0 [14][23][25]. - Zinc's price weakens. Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14][26][28]. - Lead's price rebound is restricted by high domestic inventory. Lead trend intensity is 0 [14][29][30]. - Tin's price is affected by floods in Wa State. Tin trend intensity is - 1 [14][32][35]. - Aluminum oscillates in the short - term, alumina's price strengthens, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [14][37][39]. - Nickel is boosted by macro - sentiment but restricted by reality; stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin and determined by fundamentals in terms of elasticity. Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [14][40][44]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate lithium may be strong in the short - term due to increased supply - side disturbances. Carbonate lithium trend intensity is 1 [14][45][47]. - Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market is resilient; polysilicon is affected by policy disturbances. Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [14][49][51]. - Iron ore is supported by macro - expectations and oscillates strongly. Iron ore trend intensity is 1 [14][52][53]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil oscillate widely. Rebar and hot - rolled coil trend intensities are both 0 [14][55][58]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillate widely due to rising overseas ore quotes. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese trend intensities are both 0 [14][59][61]. - Coke's third - round price increase is implemented, and it oscillates strongly; coking coal is also strong due to supply - policy constraints. Coke and coking coal trend intensities are both 1 [14][63][65]. - Steam coal's daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. Steam coal trend intensity is 0 [14][67][70]. - Logs oscillate repeatedly [71].

方大特钢（600507）今日涨停，成交额6.31亿元，换手率4.72%，盘后龙虎榜数据显示，沪股通专用席位买入4798.64万元并卖出 4413.31万元，2家机构专用席位净买入1.63亿元。 | > 龙虎榜 | | | ○、该股票最热门的概念题材 | | 开始搜索 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-22 2025-01-13 | | | | | 历史龙虎榜信息>> | | 上榜原因:日涨幅偏离值达7%的证券 | | | | | 更多个股解读>> | | 营业部名称 | 买入金额(元) | 占总成交比例 | 卖出金额(元) | 占总成交比例 | 净额(元) | | 机构专用 | 1.4377. | 22.63% | 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.43亿 | | 沪股通专用 | 4798.64万 | 7.61% | 0.00 | 0.00% | 4798.64万 | | 机构专用 | 2008.99万 | 3.19% | 0.00 | 0.00% | 2008.99万 | | 开源证券股份有限公司西安西大街证券营业部 | 1373.03万 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of multiple commodities, offering insights into their price trends, fundamental data, and relevant market news. It suggests that different commodities are influenced by various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and industry - specific events. For example, some commodities like gold, silver, and aluminum are expected to show upward trends, while others like tin are predicted to experience price weakness. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.70, up 0.60%, and the overnight closing price was 785.76, up 0.76%. [2][7][8] - Silver is predicted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪银2510 was 9271, down 0.02%, and the overnight closing price was 9420.00, up 1.85%. [2][7][8] Base Metals - Copper: Inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,770, up 1.70%. [2][11] - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22925, up 2.83%. [2][14] - Lead: The expected supply - demand contradiction supports the price, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16960, up 0.83%. [2][17] - Tin: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 267,250, up 1.02%. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will move upward in a volatile manner. Alumina shows strong short - term sentiment, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and casting aluminum alloy is 0. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20840. [2][23] - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strength of both nickel and stainless steel is 0. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 122,550, and the closing price of stainless steel主力 was 12,905. [2][26] Energy - Related Commodities - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of the futures was 809.0, up 3.06%. [2][38] - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to oscillate strongly. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1. The closing price of JM2509 was 1006, up 8.64%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1803, up 5.60%. [2][49][50] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, it will stabilize in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 from the previous settlement price. [2][53] Chemical Commodities - Carbonate lithium: Potential supply reduction combined with strong macro - sentiment may lead to a strong short - term trend. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 71,280, up 1,320. [2][31] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the futures price is resilient. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,260, up 565. [2][35] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the transaction situation at the component end. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660, up 1,810. [2][35] Building Materials and Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,224, up 68, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,394, up 73. [2][41] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of硅铁2509 was 5668, up 160, and the closing price of锰硅2509 was 5914, up 110. [2][45] Others - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][56]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests short - term waiting and considering short - selling after a price increase [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Information Macro Policy - The Party Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasizes putting urban renewal in a more prominent position, accelerating the construction of a new real - estate development model, and promoting the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated buildings [2] Supply - side Information - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.89%, a 0.99 - percentage - point increase; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a 26,300 - ton increase [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 51.79%, a 1.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.81 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the operating rate was 65.08%, a 1.49 - percentage - point increase [2] - Under the anti - involution policy, the market is positive about industries with over - supply, and the sentiment in the steel market is also positive. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly last week, but steel mills' profits increased, and the operating rate and daily average pig iron output were high [2] Demand - side Information - The actual demand drags down the upward movement of steel prices and even exerts downward pressure. The real - estate market remains sluggish and is difficult to improve in the short term, and the downstream of consumer steel products shows signs of slowing growth [2] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand conditions should be focused on [3]