Group 1: Glass and Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints - **Glass**: Last week, the macro environment initially drove the glass futures market up, but the market corrected later. Although the spot market had good sales and inventory decreased, some regions still had high intermediate - level inventories. The deep - processing orders improved seasonally but were still weak, and the low operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass did not show peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Track policy implementation and downstream restocking. In the short - term, sentiment drives the market, and track its sustainability. For the medium - term, focus on peak - season demand [3]. - **Rubber**: Near the holiday, capital's risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the macro sentiment of commodities weakened. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500. In the supply side, the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas affect rubber tapping, and the expected increase in supply in the future suppresses raw - material prices. The cost support has weakened. The downstream tire factories have basically completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and it is difficult for natural - rubber futures inventory to significantly decrease. In the demand side, some enterprises still lack goods, and the equipment runs stably to replenish inventory, but the overall sales are not as expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Some enterprises may control production flexibly [1]. Summary by Catalog Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in different regions were stable. Glass 2505 rose 1.13% to 1343, and Glass 2509 rose 1.30% to 1405. The 05 - contract basis decreased by 8.43%. For纯碱, prices in different regions were unchanged.纯碱 2505 rose 0.50% to 1407, and纯碱 2509 rose 0.86% to 1454. The 05 - contract basis decreased by 7.00% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda - ash mining rate decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and the weekly soda - ash production decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 million tons. The float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47% to 15.95 million tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80, the soda - ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 million tons, and the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 million tons. The glass - factory soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged at 20.4 [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [3]. Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 0.68% to 14,700 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis decreased by 65. The Thai - standard mixed - rubber price decreased by 1.67% to 14,750 yuan/ton, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 37.72%. The cup - lump price in the international market decreased by 1.16% to 51.05 Thai baht/kg, and the glue price increased by 0.18% to 56.30 [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00% to 15, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 66.67% to 5, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 55.56% to - 20 [1]. - **Production**: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61% to 421.60 thousand tons, Indonesia's increased by 12.09% to 197.50 thousand tons, and India's decreased by 2.17% to 45.00 thousand tons. China's production decreased by 1.30 to 101.30 thousand tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.66% to 592,275, and the natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.07% to 44,553 [1]. Group 2: Log and Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints - **Log**: The log futures market closed up last Friday. The spot price of the main deliverable log was stable. The inventory increased, and the demand (out - bound volume) slightly increased. The supply of New Zealand logs to Chinese ports decreased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, observe whether the out - bound volume improves. The price below 800 yuan has high "receiving value". In the "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: From the fundamental perspective, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon will gradually become looser from September to October. The expected large - scale production cuts of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - and low - water periods will occur at the end of October. The supply will reach a peak in October, and the balance is expected to be significantly loose, then narrow in November. The cost increase in the flat - and low - water periods in the west raises the industry's average cost, bringing positive sentiment to the market. In the short term, the upward - driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the price may oscillate, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial - silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. Summary by Catalog Log - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices in different contracts rose slightly. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15, the 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20, and the 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% to 44. The total inventory of national coniferous logs increased by 2.72% to 302 million cubic meters, and the daily average out - bound volume increased by 3% to 6.29 million cubic meters [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon were stable. The basis of different types of industrial silicon changed significantly. For example, the basis of East - China oxygen - passing SI5530 decreased by 89.89%. The monthly spreads also had large fluctuations, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread decreasing by 233.33% [5]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national industrial - silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased. The national operating rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87%. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 1.07% to 12.04 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% to 54.30 million tons [5]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints A weekly industry self - discipline meeting was held to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises plan to cut production. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and some enterprises' low inventory (unequally distributed among enterprises) support the polysilicon price increase. Currently, low - price polysilicon resources are scarce and snapped up, while high - price resources face downstream resistance. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10% to 52,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis increased by 91.74% to - 50. The main - contract price of polysilicon futures decreased by 0.95% to 52,700. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64% to 3.10 million tons, and the monthly production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 million tons. The polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85% to 20.40 million tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 1.93% to 16.87 GW [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillation" [3][4]. Core View of the Report - Due to the combination of state reserve sales and weakening market sentiment, natural rubber has returned to a downward trend. Although there are factors such as reduced rainfall in production areas, strong cost support, a significant decline in mid - stream inventory, and an increase in downstream operating rates, the weakening sentiment in the commodity market may lead to short - term oscillatory performance [3][4][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, Yunnan's glue output was stable with slightly lower raw material prices, and Hainan's irregular rainfall affected rubber tapping. In Thailand, the northeast had less rain and better new rubber release, while the south had continuous rainfall. In Vietnam, the weather improved but production had not returned to normal [4]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. However, there may be a slight decline in the future due to inventory pressure [4]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased, but the warehouse receipt inventory of RU and 20 - numbered rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR main contract spread both narrowed slightly [4]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber and domestic concentrated latex improved, while the delivery profit of Yunnan whole milk was still in the loss range [4]. - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level [4]. - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the domestic commodity market lacks drivers with weak sentiment [4]. - **Investment View**: It is oscillatory. Considering various factors, the short - term performance may be oscillatory [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Due to weak raw materials and state reserve sales, rubber prices dropped significantly. As of September 19, the RU main contract closed at 15,535 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan/ton (-1.80%), and the 20 - numbered rubber main contract closed at 12,300 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan/ton (-2.03%) [8]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices also dropped significantly [11]. - **Position on the Disk**: The position of the RU2601 contract was relatively low, while the total position of NR increased, and the RU - NR spread fluctuated slightly [17][24][32]. 3. Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [39]. - **Production and Export in Main Producing Countries**: In July, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC reached 5.443 million tons (+5.54%). From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber (+21.82%) [73][86]. - **China's Import and Export**: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase. In July, China's natural rubber export volume was 5,800 tons, a 36.24% decrease from the previous month and a 3.75% decrease from the same period last year [93]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased significantly [101][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly, but there may be a slight decline in the future [117]. - **Automobile and Heavy - Truck Market**: In August, automobile sales growth accelerated, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [123][133]. - **Tire Export**: From January to August, China's rubber tire cumulative export volume was 6.19 million tons, a 5.1% increase year - on - year [134]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, and the profit of Thai latex declined [145].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil as geopolitical premiums have dissipated, OPEC's production increase is minimal, and the current oil price is relatively undervalued with good fundamentals. However, it's not advisable to chase the price at present, and if geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. - For methanol, the fundamentals are mixed with high inventory suppressing the price. It's recommended to wait and see as the price is greatly affected by overall commodity sentiment [6]. - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors in reality. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. - For PTA, the supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 9.30 yuan/barrel, a 1.87% decline, at 487.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined, with high - sulfur fuel oil down 11.00 yuan/ton (0.39%) to 2796.00 yuan/ton and low - sulfur fuel oil down 36.00 yuan/ton (1.05%) to 3392.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that overall refined oil inventories decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 45.39 million barrels, a 4.10% decline [1][2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil, but it's not advisable to chase the price at present. If geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang rose 6 yuan/ton, while that in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 18 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108. The 1 - 5 spread rose 16 to - 20 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side start - up rate declined, and the demand - side improved marginally. The inventory in ports continued to rise, but the inventory pressure in the inland area was relatively small. It's recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Henan fell 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 9 yuan/ton to 1661 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31. The 1 - 5 spread fell 6 to - 61 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased again. Although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices declined with a large drop after breaking through technical support. The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is not significant, reducing supply - side bullish factors. The long - short views on natural rubber are divided. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, down 2.2 million tons (1.8%) from the previous period [11][12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 27 yuan to 4950 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 170 (-27) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, down 3% from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.2%, up 1.7% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 30.6 million tons (-0.4), and social inventory was 95.4 million tons (+1.9) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5903 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 7100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The active contract closing price was 6992 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The basis was 108 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.4%, down 1.60%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 million tons to 15.90 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 45.44%, up 0.46% [18][19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7169 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7190 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.28%, up 0.71%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 49.03 million tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 6.06 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.92%, up 0.75% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6914 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 39 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate remained unchanged at 75.43%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 million tons to 55.06 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 million tons to 18.83 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.29 million tons to 6.18 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.45%, up 0.59% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 90 yuan to 6594 yuan. PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 816 dollars. The basis was 96 yuan (+4), and the 11 - 1 spread was 0 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 86.3%, down 1.5% from the previous period, and the Asian load was 78.2%, down 0.8% from the previous period. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 0.6 million tons year - on - year [28][29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 62 yuan to 4604 yuan. The East China spot price fell 75 yuan to 4555 yuan. The basis was - 82 yuan (-5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (-6). The PTA load was 75.9%, down 0.9% from the previous period [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 11 yuan to 4257 yuan. The East China spot price fell 11 yuan to 4351 yuan. The basis was 92 yuan (+9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (+2). The supply - side operating rate was 73.8%, down 1.1% from the previous period. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.2% from the previous period. The port inventory increased by 0.6 million tons to 46.5 million tons [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35].

Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that rubber prices will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract trading in the range of 15,000 - 16,500. The supply side is affected by the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas, and the expected increase in raw material output in the future suppresses the raw material prices. The cost support has weakened, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, so the natural rubber inventory is unlikely to see a significant reduction. On the demand side, although some enterprises are short of goods, the overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises may control production flexibly. As the holiday approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds increases, and the macro - sentiment of commodities weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan to 14,700 yuan, a decline of 0.68%. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 65 to - 835. - The price of Thai - standard mixed rubber decreased by 250 yuan to 14,750 yuan, a decline of 1.67%. The non - standard price difference decreased by 215 to - 785, a decline of 37.72%. - The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.60 Thai baht per kilogram to 51.05 Thai baht per kilogram, a decline of 1.16%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market increased by 0.10 to 56.30, an increase of 0.18% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to 15, a decline of 50.00%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 to 5, a decline of 66.67%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 to - 20, an increase of 55.56% [1]. Production and Consumption Data - In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons or 1.61% compared with the previous month. Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons or 12.09%. India's production was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons or 2.17%. China's production was 101,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 73.66%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. In August, domestic tire production was 10.2954 million tons, an increase of 859,000 tons or 9.10%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63.01 million pieces, a decrease of 3.64 million pieces or 5.46% [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 10,020 tons to 592,275 tons, a decline of 1.66%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,411 tons to 44,553 tons, a decline of 3.07% [1]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental problem of over - supply still exists. Although the manufacturers' inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and the over - supply still exists compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - **Glass**: The spot market has good transactions, and the inventory has decreased this week. However, the inventory of some middle - stream enterprises in some regions remains high. The deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass is continuously low. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. The industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply problem. It is necessary to track the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - **Glass**: The price of glass 2505 increased by 15 yuan to 1343 yuan, an increase of 1.13%. The price of glass 2509 increased by 18 yuan to 1405 yuan, an increase of 1.30%. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 193, a decline of 8.43%. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash 2505 increased by 7 yuan to 1407 yuan, an increase of 0.50%. The price of soda ash 2509 increased by 12 yuan to 1454 yuan, an increase of 0.86%. The 05 basis decreased by 7 to - 107, a decline of 7.00% [3]. Supply - The soda ash mining rate decreased by 2.02 percentage points to 85.53%. The weekly production of soda ash decreased by 15,000 tons to 745,700 tons, a decline of 2.02%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,000 tons to 159,500 tons, a decline of 0.47%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. Inventory - The glass inventory decreased by 675,000 tons to 60.908 million tons, a decline of 1.10%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 42,000 tons to 1.7556 million tons, a decline of 2.33%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 614,900 tons, an increase of 10.69% [3]. Real - Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of completion area was - 0.22%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of sales area was - 6.55%, a decrease of 6.50 percentage points [3]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. The current average daily shipment volume is still below 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan per cubic meter has a high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2511 increased by 3.5 yuan to 805 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.44%. The price of log 2601 increased by 2 yuan to 818.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.24%. The price of log 2603 increased by 1 yuan to 825 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.12%. The price of log 2605 remained unchanged at 828 yuan per cubic meter [4]. - The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15. The 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20. The 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55. The 01 - contract basis decreased by 66.5 to - 68.5 [4]. Import Cost and Shipping - The import theoretical cost was 796.96 yuan, an increase of 0.37 yuan, an increase of 0%. - The number of ships departing from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3 to 44, a decline of 6.38% [4]. Inventory and Demand - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China increased by 80,000 cubic meters to 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.72%. - The average daily shipment volume of logs increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 3% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance will gradually become looser. The expectation of large - scale production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises during the flat - and - low - water period is at the end of October, so the expected surplus in October is more obvious and will narrow again in November. At the same time, the increase in production costs in the southwest during the flat - and - low - water period raises the average industry cost, giving positive sentiment to the market. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will continue to lack upward driving force in the short term and may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 45, a decline of 89.89%. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,600 yuan. The basis decreased by 97 to - 202, a decline of 380.95%. - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 295, a decline of 57.55% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 35 to - 50, a decline of 233.33%. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 5 to - 390, a decline of 1.30%. The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 to 5. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 30 to 10, an increase of 150.00% [5]. Fundamental Data - **Production**: The national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, an increase of 47,400 tons or 14.01%. Xinjiang's production was 169,700 tons, an increase of 19,400 tons or 12.91%. Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons or 41.19%. Sichuan's production was 53,700 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons or 10.72% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The national operating rate was 55.87%, an increase of 3.26 percentage points or 6.20%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.61%, an increase of 8.02 percentage points or 15.25%. Yunnan's operating rate was 47.39%, an increase of 14.50 percentage points or 44.09%. Sichuan's operating rate was 44.29%, an increase of 7.33 percentage points or 19.83% [5]. - **Downstream Production**: The production of organic silicon DMC was 223,100 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons or 11.66%. The production of polysilicon was 131,700 tons, an increase of 24,900 tons or 23.31%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 615,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or - 1.60%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons or 8.32% [5]. Inventory Change - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 0.13 tons to 12.04 tons, a decline of 1.07%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.16 tons to 3.10 tons, an increase of 5.45%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan increased by 0.01 tons to 2.29 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The social inventory increased by 0.40 tons to 54.30 tons, an increase of 0.74% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the industry self - discipline meeting was held again to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises have production - cut plans in the future. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and the low inventory of some enterprises (the inventory distribution among enterprises is uneven) provide support for the price increase of polysilicon enterprises. Currently, low - price resources in the polysilicon market are scarce and are being snapped up, while high - price resources still face some resistance from downstream. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 50 yuan to 52,650 yuan, an increase of 0.10%. The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan. The basis of N - type material increased by 555 yuan to - 50, an increase of 91.74% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 505 yuan to 52,700 yuan, a decline of 0.95%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 130 to 120, an increase of 1300.00%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract decreased by 50 to - 2590, a decline of 1.97% [6]. Fundamental Data - **Weekly Data**: The production of silicon wafers was 13.92 GW, an increase of 0.04 GW or 0.29%. The production of polysilicon was 3.10 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 0.64%. - **Monthly Data**: The production of polysilicon was 131.7 kilotons, an increase of 24.9 kilotons or 23.31%. The import volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, an increase of 0.03 kilotons or 40.30%. The export volume of polysilicon was 0.22 kilotons, an increase of 0.01 kilotons or 5.96%. The net export volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 14.92% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of polysilicon decreased by 1.5 kilotons to 20.4 kilotons, a decline of 6.85%. The inventory of silicon wafers increased by 0.32 GW to 16.87 GW, an increase of 1.93%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 7900 hands, an increase of 0.25% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is -1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3] Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is under short - term shock pressure with a neutral - downward driver, but the downside space is narrowing from a valuation perspective. The fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber face increased pressure mainly due to high supply. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The inventory pressure of cis - butadiene rubber is rising, and the high processing profit on the cis - butadiene rubber futures is unsustainable. Butadiene is also expected to face high - supply pressure, which will put pressure on the cost side of cis - butadiene rubber. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cut signal is neutral, and the macro - end has limited impact on the commodity market before the next Fed meeting and the Fourth Plenary Session. The downside space of the futures price is narrowing as the fundamentals are partially reflected in the valuation, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the price is approaching the static cost line [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber 10 - contract increased by 30 yuan/ton to 11,445 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 21,553 lots to 94,561 lots, the open interest increased by 756 lots to 75,259 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 122,814 ten - thousand yuan to 542,409 ten - thousand yuan. The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber to the futures main contract decreased by 30 to 205, and the monthly spread (BR10 - BR11) increased by 15 to 70 [1] - In the spot market, the prices of cis - butadiene rubber in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber of models 1502 and 1712 also remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively [1] - In terms of fundamentals, the cis - butadiene rubber operating rate, theoretical full cost, and profit remained unchanged [1] Industry News - As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29%. The downstream continued to purchase at low prices, and the spot negotiation center was under pressure. The inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased slightly [2] - As of September 17, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 22,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous period. Some imported cargoes have not been put into storage, and the short - term inventory continues to decline with limited tradable volume. However, there are still expectations of cargo arrivals, and the import volume in September is expected to be sufficient [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Rubber has been officially recognized as a cross-border capital centralized operation center in Hainan, supported by various policies and collaborative efforts from multiple parties [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Support and Implementation - The implementation of the cross-border capital centralized operation center is a result of the "Implementation Opinions on Supporting the Development of Cross-Border Capital Centralized Operation Centers in Hainan Free Trade Port," which offers tax, financial, and approval channel incentives for enterprises [1]. - The Haikou Financial Office, in collaboration with multiple departments, provided comprehensive guidance to enterprises throughout the application process, from material preparation to recognition [1]. - Hainan Rubber actively engaged in understanding the application process and provided necessary materials promptly, leveraging its historical experience in cross-border capital operations and management [1]. Group 2: Business Expansion and International Operations - In recent years, Hainan Rubber has expanded its international business through a series of overseas acquisitions, becoming the world's largest multinational enterprise group in the natural rubber industry after acquiring Hosheng Agriculture in 2023 [2]. - The company currently manages 3.9 million acres of rubber plantation land, with an annual processing capacity of 2.45 million tons and a global sales volume of 4.14 million tons, accounting for 27% of global consumption [2]. - Hainan Rubber operates in 15 countries with a global trade network, involving multi-currency settlements, which has created new demands for capital management [2]. Group 3: Future Support and Strategic Importance - The cross-border capital centralized operation center will continue to support the expansion of global business by enhancing resource integration capabilities and providing international financial service support [3]. - The center will facilitate better arrangements for cross-border investment and financing, improving international competitiveness through favorable policies [3]. - Effective capital flow will enhance the company's supply chain and value chain, contributing to national strategic resource security by establishing a new ecosystem for global financial management [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. With the supply peak season reducing the upward momentum of raw materials, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the National Day is increasing. It is expected that RU will oscillate weakly [85][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the production was 795.467 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [5]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [5]. - The eight - department work plan aims for annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million in 2025, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [6]. - Nigeria aims to contribute at least 12% of the global rubber production [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets first rose and then fell. Japanese smoked sheets fell the most, followed by standard rubber. On September 19, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,535 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.80%; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,395 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% [9][11]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - As of September 19, 2025, the basis of whole - milk and RU01 was - 835 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread was 5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 125.00% [15]. - RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads decreased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread increased [17]. - The spreads of Thai mixed - RU01, Malaysian mixed - RU01, 3L - RU01, and African No. 10 rubber - RU01 were - 805 yuan/ton, - 855 yuan/ton, - 335 yuan/ton, and - 3,194.29 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases of 4.17%, 3.93%, 35.58%, and 0.62% [20][21][22]. - The spread of whole - milk - Thai mixed decreased, while the spread of 3L - Thai mixed increased [23]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - This week, the offer price of the imported rubber market declined. The mainstream offer price of the domestic natural rubber spot market decreased. The downstream of the substitute butadiene rubber market maintained a wait - and - see attitude and purchased at low prices [20][28]. 3.5 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased slightly, and the settled funds increased slightly. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR continued to decline, and the settled funds continued to decline [31]. 3.6 Supply - In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern region is slightly lower than the same period, and the rainfall in the northeastern region is at a seasonal high [36]. - In China, Yunnan and Hainan are still in the rainy season [38]. - Raw material prices are differentiated. The price of Thai cup lumps decreased, the price of Thai latex increased, and the price of Yunnan latex decreased [40]. - Thai rubber processing profits generally recovered, while Hainan concentrated latex profits were under pressure [49]. - In July, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a significant year - on - year decrease in standard rubber exports and a low year - on - year level in latex exports [52]. - In August, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to China continued to grow rapidly, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases in standard rubber and mixed rubber exports to China [58]. - In July, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased seasonally, with a high year - on - year level. The exports of standard rubber and latex to China increased significantly [62]. - In August, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were at a high year - on - year level, and the exports to China were also at a high year - on - year level [66]. - In August, China imported 5.208 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [69]. 3.7 Demand - During the cycle, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. Tire inventory rebounded slightly. In August, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high year - on - year level. In July, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks continued to recover month - on - month and year - on - year; in August, the sales volume of passenger cars increased month - on - month and year - on - year [72][75]. 3.8 Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to decline, with an expanded decline compared to the previous period. The futures inventory of RU decreased the most, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly [78]. - As of September 19, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 1.549 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.10%; the futures - spot inventory was 1.968 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.54% [82]. 3.9 This Week's View Summary - This week's view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. The upward momentum of raw materials weakens during the supply peak season, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the National Day is increasing. It is expected that RU will oscillate weakly. The recommended strategies are to wait and see or take a short - selling approach on rallies for single - side trading, and to observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading [85][86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★☆ (representing a clear long/short trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (representing a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (representing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline, and cotton spot sales were poor with most prices stable. Xinjiang cotton has a high probability of a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The expected opening price of machine - picked cotton is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The cotton yarn market has general trading, and downstream orders are still not ideal. Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations should be noted. Temporarily wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio is still at the upper edge of the historical range, and Brazil's sugar - making ratio may remain high next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar declined weakly. This year's sales rhythm is fast, inventory is lower year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market focus has shifted to imports and the next crushing season's output estimate. The syrup import volume has decreased significantly this year, but the output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and the spot market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, the apple output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply side lacks bullish drivers. The storage volume of late - maturing apples in cold storage may be higher than expected. It is expected that the short - term futures price will continue to decline, and a bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated, and the futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with some increases, and the external butadiene port price declined. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly this week. The domestic tire operating rate has slightly increased, and the tire inventory has increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao has decreased to 586,600 tons, and the butadiene social inventory has dropped to 12,600 tons. Demand is stable, natural rubber supply increases while inventory decreases, synthetic rubber supply and inventory both decrease. With the National Day holiday approaching, risk appetite is low. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the inventory of Chinese pulp ports decreased slightly compared to the previous period but was still at a high level year - on - year. The warehouse receipt digestion was slow. China's pulp import volume in August decreased month - on - month. The inflation is expected to be weak this year, and the PPI has marginally improved. The port inventory is high, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is general. Temporarily wait and see or trade within a range [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly month - on - month. The quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The demand is entering the peak season, but the shipment volume has not increased significantly. The inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Friday. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted. The rubber market has shifted to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly closing higher on Friday. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating downward, and slightly closing lower on Friday. After the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market has shifted to a weak supply - demand fundamental. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.66 million tons, a decrease of 0.56 million tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.95%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 3.44 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.96 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.27 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [9]. - In the terminal retail segment, in August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [10]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease from July and a 35% increase from the same period last year. In the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a 1.53% decrease compared to the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.8132 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a decrease of 30,200 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58 percentage points [11]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and an increase of 487,200 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of September 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 340,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a decrease of 94,200 tons compared to the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared to the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [14]. - As of September 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 81,844 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 20,584 contracts and a 32.95% decrease compared to the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 205,775 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 34,954 contracts and a 1.71% increase compared to the August average. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, and those in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | - 250 yuan/ton | 15,535 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | - 735 yuan/ton | + 35 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | - 32 yuan/ton | 2,361 yuan/ton | + 19 yuan/ton | - 91 yuan/ton | - 19 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 465.1 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 487.0 yuan/barrel | - 4.8 yuan/barrel | - 21.9 yuan/barrel | + 5.1 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc. [18][20][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 in the short term [7] - The domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber has recovered, with sufficient overall supply. The downstream continues to purchase at low prices, putting pressure on the negotiation focus of the spot market. Some industry players expect a reduction in the mainstream supply price. Before the National Day holiday, downstream demand for stockpiling is expected to drive up buying and reduce inventory levels [8] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders are in the concentrated production period, which supports the overall operation, while the demand in the all - steel tire replacement market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The overall shipment is less than expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly, with a possible slight decline in short - term capacity utilization [8] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 in the short term [7] - Market review: The price of the cis - butadiene rubber market in Shandong, China, fluctuated weakly this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,400 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina's main sales companies were reduced by 200 yuan/ton in total. As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, increasing domestic production. The overall supply of cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Affected by downstream low - price purchases, the negotiation focus of the spot market is under pressure. Some industry players expect a price cut. The inventories of enterprises and sample trading enterprises have decreased slightly. Before the National Day holiday, downstream stockpiling demand is expected to drive up buying and reduce inventory levels. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders are in the concentrated production period, which supports the overall operation, while the demand in the all - steel tire replacement market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face export pressure. The overall shipment is less than expected, and some enterprises may control production flexibly, with a possible slight decline in short - term capacity utilization [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fell by 1.08% this week [12] - As of September 19, the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of butadiene rubber was 70 [18] - As of September 19, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from last week [21] - **Spot Market** - As of September 18, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [25] - As of September 18, the basis of butadiene rubber was 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of September 18, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 599.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.56 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 850 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [28] - As of September 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.78%, a decrease of 1.55% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 23,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from last week [31] - **Production and Profit of Cis - Butadiene Rubber** - In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month [34] - As of September 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.72%, a decrease of 3.56% from last week [34] - As of September 18, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 658 yuan/ton, a decrease of 151 yuan/ton from last week [37] - **Inventory** - As of September 19, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,720 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from last week [41] - As of September 19, the domestic manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 25,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 7,820 tons, a decrease of 390 tons from last week [41] - **Downstream** - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly this week. Most tire enterprises maintained last week's production level, and some enterprises still faced shortages. The semi - steel tire domestic snow tire orders were in the concentrated production period, which supported the overall operation [44] - In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.9403 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.7891 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [47]