昨晚发了招行的年报解读，有小伙伴问，马上要入职小招了，现在进银行，算不算是49年入国军。 我说这怎么可能呢，现在能找到份工作就不错了，这都是有依据的，看到银行招聘网上，贴出来的 四大行的春招计划 ： 农行，25年春招4500人，比去年同期少1万人； 工行，25年春招4500人，比去年少4300人； 中行，25年春招4700人，比去年少1000人； 建行，25年春招2300人，比去年少1400人。 四大行今年合计春招1.6万人，比去年同期少招近1.7万人，直接砍半了，其中农行砍的比较多，因为网点多，2.3万个网点，是工行和建行的1.5 倍，是中行的2倍多，过往一线网点的招聘基数比较大，现在业务难做，师傅都吃不饱饭了，更不可能招新员工进来当徒弟了。 所以，你想进国军，国军不一定有编制呢。 何况，我们分析了半天，最核心的逻辑还是，在基本面的下行期， 从比烂的角度来看，银行是不差的 ，毕竟24年全年，全国规上工业企业，净 利润同比下降了3.3%，而银行不管是靠拨备，还是靠业绩，都至少保持了净利润的正增长； 而且，除了招行这种pb在1以上的银行外，大部分银行的上涨，核心逻辑依然是估值的修复，尤其是本来两块系统性风险，地 ...

Group 1: Trade and Economic Challenges - The US has imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, raising the cumulative tariff to 20%, with the overall tariff rate on Chinese exports potentially reaching 45%[7] - The trade war has led to a significant decline in bilateral trade, with the proportion of US imports from China dropping from 18% in 2018 to 11% in 2023[9] - China's export growth is expected to face further pressure, with a forecasted decline in export growth for 2025 due to rising tariffs and stricter "origin" requirements[9] Group 2: Real Estate Market Dynamics - In the first two months of the year, national real estate development investment was 1,072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.8%[13] - New housing sales area decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[13] - The pressure on real estate companies to deliver projects is increasing, with a significant rise in unsold residential properties, which grew by 6.6% year-on-year[13] Group 3: Fixed Asset Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 52,619 billion yuan in January-February, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%[19] - Consumer confidence remains low, with per capita disposable income growth at only 3.9%, leading to a decline in consumption willingness[21] - Retail sales in January-February totaled 83,731 billion yuan, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 4.0%[21] Group 4: Policy Responses and Economic Outlook - The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 5.66 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, aimed at stimulating economic growth[26] - Monetary policy is expected to shift towards easing, with indications of potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[30] - The overall economic environment is anticipated to stabilize in the second quarter, despite ongoing pressures from the trade war and domestic challenges[37]

盘后财政政策重大发布！A500ETF(159339)今日深 V收盘翻红，过去10个交易日日均成交额7.40亿元 消息面上，2025年3月24日，财政部发布《2024年中国财政政策执行情况报告》称，2025年财政政 策要更加积极，持续用力、更加给力。强调提高财政赤字率，加大支出强度、加快支出进度。安排更大 规模政府债券，为稳增长、调结构提供更多支撑。支持全方位扩大国内需求。大力提振消费。支持现代 化产业体系建设。着力提升科技创新能力，加大中央本级科技投入。 A500ETF（159339）跟踪A股新时代核心宽基A500指数，以500只成份股覆盖A股市场营收的63%和 净利润的70%，代表A股核心资产。所有成份股都处于互联互通范围内，便利外资配置。指数编制方案 重视行业均衡，均衡配置"科技+顺周期"，把握A股盈利主线。 3月24日，A股市场临近收盘大幅反弹，A500指数深V修复至收红。A500指数成份股中，石英股份 涨超10%，江西铜业、胜宏科技、中集集团涨超5%，洛阳钼业、铜陵有色、新易盛、西部超导涨超 4%，其余成份股走势积极。 A500ETF（159339）跟踪中证A500指数，在编制方案上具备四大特点，分别 ...

同时盘中看到涨幅榜的两个板块，一是旅游旅游，在周末的时候有多地放春假，因此旅游股在今天短期 表现活跃，旅游是小盘股，适合这种短期炒作，投资者注意短炒就可以了。二是有色，虽然它叫工业金 属或农业金属，但整体来看就是铜和合金，铜类整体的走势趋势上还是比较明显，因此我们在月初的时 候看好有色，还是保持继续跟踪看好就行了。 和讯投顾李国学：大盘分化严重，只可逢低不可追 涨 3月24日，大盘盘中走势不稳，但最终收红收涨。盘后，和讯投顾李国学分析表示，盘中的整体状态， 技术形态上仍然还是喇叭口状态，3350点下方的最低点3340点。 这个位置能否直接反弹起来？李国学表示，3月底的时候大家应该关注两大问题：第一个是季度末资金 面的问题。上周央行7天逆回购是净投放资金，今天是净回笼，因此要注意资金的变化。第二是年报季 可以说是有喜有忧，大盘股在最近一个阶段里有多家发布财报，对指数起到一定的稳定作用，比如今天 的银行、保险，另外，一些小盘股也有着一些戴瑁压力，因此市场分化比较严重。 指数层面，在3月底之前，今天虽然收了下影线的阳线，但是还是震荡的过程，只可逢低不可追涨，盯 的方向方面，一是有色继续盯住，除了黄金、有色、铜、铝等 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - The bond market sentiment has eased, with yields initially rising and then declining due to stable economic data released on Monday, indicating that the economy is expected to maintain rapid growth in Q1 [1] - Industrial production growth for January-February reached 5.9%, while service sector production grew by 5.6%, suggesting a potential for over 5% growth in Q1 [1] - Despite strong production, demand appears weak, with real estate sales showing a marginal decline and industrial sales rates hitting a record low for January-February, indicating increasing supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2: Policy and Liquidity - The central bank has maintained a hawkish stance since the beginning of the year, focusing on the risks associated with rapid interest rate declines and currency depreciation, which has led to yield inversions [2] - The liquidity situation has improved slightly in March compared to February, with the central bank's increased interventions indicating a marginal change in its stance [1][2] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a pullback, with all major indices declining, particularly the ChiNext index which fell over 3%, attributed to a significant drop on Friday [3] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market decreased to an average of 1.55 trillion, reflecting a weakening market sentiment [3] - Value stocks outperformed in a weak market environment, while sectors such as oil, steel, and building materials showed better performance amidst a chaotic market structure [3] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Global Context - Economic indicators for January-February show a mixed picture, with strong industrial production and infrastructure investment but weak consumer demand and declining import growth [4] - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates and slow down its balance sheet reduction, while Japan's central bank continues to keep rates unchanged, indicating a cautious global economic outlook [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable market outlook with potential upward movement, suggesting a positive investment sentiment in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The market has shown stability with a slight upward trend, although short-term momentum appears limited. The K-line has consistently closed above the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential for further upward movement if supported by increased trading volume [1]. - Various sectors are experiencing rotation, with technology, consumer goods, non-bank financials, home appliances, and metals showing activity, while a clear leading sector has yet to emerge [1]. - The report highlights the importance of observing market dynamics as different capital forces engage in various sectors, leading to a lack of a definitive market leader [1]. Market Overview - On March 18, the market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.52%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.61% [3]. - The net inflow of capital was significant, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange seeing a net inflow of 55.49 billion and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 89.20 billion [4]. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for the construction of digital energy and carbon management centers, aiming to enhance energy efficiency and carbon reduction capabilities in industrial enterprises [5]. - The OECD has revised down its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, citing trade tensions and rising inflationary pressures [6]. - The National Energy Administration reported a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in total electricity consumption for February, indicating robust industrial activity [8]. Sector Developments - The China Real Estate Industry Association is set to hold a conference to discuss the real estate market trends and explore new development models [9]. - Suzhou is actively seeking support for its AI chip industry, aiming to attract investment and promote innovation in this sector [10]. - AMD has announced plans to expand its partnerships in China, expecting to reach 170 ISV partners by the end of 2025, highlighting growth in the AI PC ecosystem [11]. Fund Dynamics - Over 90% of large private equity funds reported positive returns, with an average gain of over 3% as of the end of February, indicating a strong recovery in the market [12]. - The Economic Daily emphasizes the need for capital markets to support new industrialization, focusing on attracting long-term investment to foster technological innovation [13]. Buyer Perspectives - Silver华基金 suggests that the current market may face technical pressure due to high profit-taking levels, while the consumer sector could see structural opportunities supported by low valuations and policy backing [15].

2025.02 晨 星 月 报 01 市场洞察 国内经济企稳向好， 股市回暖债市调整 2月，国内宏观经济稳中向好，反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得50.2，在1月份49.1的基础上回升1.1，重回扩张区间。制造业的景 气水平回升主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、从业人员指数和供应商配送时间指数环比上行所带来的影响。1月份CPI同比上涨0.5%， PPI同比下降2.3%。相比于12月份CPI和PPI同比分别上涨0.1%和下降2.3%而言，1月份CPI同比涨幅上升主要是受到食品价格和服务价格 拉升的影响，生产资料价格和生活资料价格的降幅同上月基本持平，PPI同比降幅保持不变。 以Deepseek和人形机器人为代表的AI产业链在2月备受市场关注，17日，时隔六年召开的民营企业座谈会释放出国家对民营经济高度重视 和全力支持的积极信号，增强了市场对于整体经济和资本市场的信心，也进一步推升了市场的风险偏好。从投资侧来看，主要股指在2月 悉数上涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.16%和4.48%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指 数分别上涨1.91%、4.84%和7.26% ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights positive signals from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on a 300 billion yuan subsidy for consumer goods [3][4] - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from these policies, with leading companies like Oppein Home and Sophia recommended for investment due to their high retail business ratios [3][4] - The paper industry is experiencing price differentiation, with cultural paper prices showing resilience despite overall weak demand [3][4] - Export data indicates a slight increase in overall exports, but home furnishing exports are under pressure due to high base effects and tariff impacts [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The light industry sector outperformed the market with a 1.34% increase, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.39% [5] - Key sectors such as home furnishing, paper, and packaging printing showed varied performance, with home furnishing up by 1.24% [5] 2. Paper Sector Tracking - Major raw material prices showed mixed trends, with domestic needle pulp averaging 5847 yuan/ton, down 1.6% week-on-week [12][23] - Finished paper prices varied, with corrugated paper at 2766 yuan/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week, while cultural paper prices remained relatively stable [25][31] 3. Home Furnishing Sector Tracking - Government policies are expected to stimulate the home furnishing market, with a projected increase in new residential supply in key cities [3][4] - Home furnishing exports faced challenges, with a 15.5% year-on-year decline in furniture exports for January-February 2025 [36] 4. Other Sector Tracking - The report notes fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude at $70.36 per barrel, down 4.29% week-on-week [42] - Polyethylene prices increased slightly to 7892 yuan/ton, while polypropylene prices decreased to 7306 yuan/ton [43][44]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating for the industry, indicating a projected performance within a range of -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next 12 months [53]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of resilience in the U.S. with a combination of inflation rebound and strong employment, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts [3][15]. - In Europe, economic fundamentals are improving, but the European Central Bank is likely to continue a gradual rate cut approach due to ongoing uncertainties [4][25]. - Domestic consumption is expected to continue its recovery trend, with significant growth in retail and service sectors during the Spring Festival period [28]. - The export sector is showing resilience, supported by increased container throughput at ports and a recovery in the semiconductor supply chain [29]. - Inflation is anticipated to be influenced by seasonal factors, with CPI expected to decline post-Spring Festival due to the normalization of prices [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2024 was revised to 2.3%, with consumer spending remaining strong despite some downward pressures from non-residential investment [13]. - The Eurozone's GDP growth for Q4 2024 was adjusted to 0.1%, with improvements in service and manufacturing PMIs, although disparities among major economies persist [24]. 2. Domestic Economy - Consumption during the Spring Festival saw a 10.8% increase in daily sales compared to the previous year, with significant growth in both goods and services [28]. - Investment in real estate remains under pressure, with construction activity not yet returning to pre-holiday levels [29]. - Export growth is expected to maintain resilience, aided by a recovery in global manufacturing and proactive export strategies [29]. 3. Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with potential adjustments post the National People's Congress [6]. - Fiscal policy discussions during the upcoming meetings are likely to focus on stimulating domestic demand and supporting new productivity initiatives [45].