1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For financial futures and options, the overall market is affected by overseas and domestic factors. The stock index futures are expected to continue adjusting in the short - term and move in a range in the medium - term, while the bond futures are expected to be strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - For commodity futures and options, different varieties in the metal and new energy materials sector have different trends. Copper is expected to move in a range, while industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate are expected to be weak [4][6][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Intraday View**: Continued adjustment [1] - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option, and short - sell IM2506 on rallies [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the initial Sino - US trade agreement and the Middle East conflict have mixed impacts; domestically, the fundamental data is weak, and the market lacks a continuous upward main line [1] Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [2] - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, and long - term bonds are strong [2] - **Medium - term View**: Strong [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the Middle East conflict boosts the domestic bond market; in terms of funds, the central bank's operation is beneficial to long - term bonds; fundamentally, the financial data and price levels support the loose expectation [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: 78000 - 79100 [4] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a shock - operation strategy [4] - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, the Israel - Iran conflict affects the market; in terms of supply, the production plan of a copper mine is reduced, while Yunnan Copper's production increases; in terms of demand, the wire and cable and copper rod industries have different trends; in terms of inventory, LME and SHFE have different inventory changes. The Sino - US tariff negotiation results are crucial for the future copper price [4][5] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 7300 - 7400 [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure in the range of 7000 - 8500 [6] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2507 - C - 9000 and short - sell futures [6] - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [6][7] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Polycrystalline Silicon - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 33000 - 34000 [8] - **Medium - term View**: Low - level operation in the range of 30000 - 40000 [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold PS2507 - C - 45000 [8] - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [8][9][10] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 62000 - 65000 [11] - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price steadily declines in the range of 59000 - 65000 [11] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold LC2507 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core Logic**: The spot price is low, the supply pressure is large, and the total inventory is at a high level [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for industrial silicon is "oscillating", and for polysilicon is also "oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price lacks obvious rebound momentum. The futures market rebounded this week possibly due to factors such as following the coking coal rebound, increased spot holding willingness, and concerns about insufficient delivery products. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and one can consider short - selling lightly after a rebound. Attention should be paid to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large manufacturers [4][16] - For polysilicon, whether leading enterprises reduce production will significantly affect the fundamentals. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the fundamentals are bearish for the futures market. A strategy of short - term short and long - term long can be considered, with the key being the production - cut actions of leading enterprises [4][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2507 contract of industrial silicon increased by 55 yuan/ton to 7345 yuan/ton, while the SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained at 8150 yuan/ton and Xinjiang 99 at 7600 yuan/ton. The PS2507 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1045 yuan/ton to 33695 yuan/ton, and the N - type re -投料 transaction price decreased by 800 yuan/ton to 36700 yuan/ton [10] 2. Spot Lacks Rebound Momentum, Pessimistic Mood Prevails at SNEC Exhibition - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the industrial silicon futures oscillated. The weekly production was 7.31 tons, with a monthly increase of 4.18%. Sichuan has entered the wet season, and some silicon plants have resumed production. Yunnan may start in July, but no clear electricity price discount has been given, and most plants do not plan to work. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1.5 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.32 tons. The demand side has not improved significantly, and the current level of supply contraction does not support a significant rebound in spot prices for industrial silicon [2][12] - **Silicone**: This week, the silicon price continued to decline. The overall enterprise operating rate was about 70.44%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.91pct. The weekly, with a month - on - month growth of 1.02%. Supply has picked up, demand is weak, and inventory has piled up, so prices are expected to face downward pressure [13] - **Polysilicon**: This week, the prices of the main futures contract of polysilicon oscillated downward. The production schedule for June is expected to remain at 96,000 tons, and it is expected to reduce inventory by about 10,000 tons. As of June 12, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 275,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons. Whether leading enterprises can jointly cut production to support prices will have a major impact on the fundamentals [3][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: This week, silicon wafer prices continued to fall. As of June 12, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 19.34GW, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.68GW. The production schedule for June is 55GW, which may lead to continued inventory accumulation. Leading enterprises are engaged in price wars, and prices are expected to face downward pressure [14] - **Battery Cells**: This week, battery cell prices continued to decline. The production schedule for June is expected to be 53GW, and the inventory is still accumulating. As of June 9, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 14.98GW, with a month - on - month increase of 1.14GW. Battery cell production cuts are slow, and leading enterprises are engaged in price wars, so prices are expected to face downward pressure [14] - **Components**: This week, component prices were basically stable. The production schedule for June is about 50GW, with a month - on - month decrease of 10%. Demand is expected to weaken significantly from July to August. Domestic component demand faces pressure, and overseas restocking willingness needs to be observed in the second half of the year. Component prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [15] 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: Consider short - selling lightly after a rebound. Pay attention to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large manufacturers [4][16] - **Polysilicon**: Adopt a strategy of short - term short and long - term long, and pay attention to the production - cut actions of leading enterprises. Manage positions carefully when building positions on the left - hand side [4][16] 4. Hot News Compilation - Zhu Gongshan pointed out at the 2025 SNEC PV+ International Photovoltaic Conferences that the photovoltaic industry is undergoing three major changes: abnormal industrial evolution curve, rewritten market development logic, and extended industrial boundary attributes [17] - Longi Green Energy's 3GW BC photovoltaic component project was publicly announced. The project is located in Wuzhong, Ningxia, with a total investment of 300 million yuan [17] - Anhui Huasheng's 3.3GW silicon wafer technical renovation and expansion project's environmental assessment was accepted. After the project is completed, the silicon wafer production capacity will increase from 2.7GW to 6GW [18] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly production in different regions, and social and factory inventories [20][22][26] - **Silicone**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventories, and weekly production [29][30] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventories, and enterprise weekly production [33][34] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventories, and enterprise weekly production [35][38][39] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventories, and enterprise monthly production [41][43][47] - **Components**: Covers data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventories, and enterprise monthly production [49][52][54]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: June 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract of polysilicon weakened again. The closing price of PS2507 was 33,585 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.39%. The trading volume was 65,591 lots, and the open interest was 61,695 lots, with a net increase of 1,499 lots [4] - Future Outlook: After the end of the terminal rush installation and with policies in a vacuum period, the weak spot price limits the rebound space. The weekly output in the first week of June is expected to remain at 22,000 tons, and the monthly output is expected to be around 100,000 tons. The potential supply pressure in the far - month is alleviated as the production increase during the wet season is difficult to materialize. A meeting at the end of June may discuss further production cuts to support the current futures and spot prices. The weak reality is mainly reflected in the end of the "rush installation" in the downstream photovoltaic terminal, with a significant decline in monthly demand both year - on - year and month - on - month. The market will mainly oscillate weakly at a low level [4] Group 3: Market News - Warehouse Receipts: As of June 11, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, with a net increase of 120 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - Transaction Prices: The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p - type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5] - Industry Conference: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will hold the "2025 China (Leshan) Silicon Industry Chain Development Conference" in Leshan, Sichuan Province from June 24 - 26 [5] - Project News: Dacheng New Energy's Anji Intelligent Manufacturing Base Project is expected to be completed and put into operation at the end of June. The project has a total investment of 4.7 billion yuan and plans to build a 4.8GW high - efficiency heterojunction battery + 7.2GW battery module fully automated intelligent production line in two phases [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 11, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.72%. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,560 yuan/ton and an intraday increase of 2.23% [2]. - With the full - scale reduction of hydropower prices in the southwest region and the continuous decline of silicon coal and electrodes, the cost center of industrial silicon has been continuously adjusted downwards. The operating level of silicon plants during the wet season has been reduced to the limit, and there are few variables on the demand side, so industrial silicon has stopped falling in the short term. Polysilicon has continued to reduce its load comprehensively, and there is still a possibility of expanding the production - restriction quota through industry self - discipline in the future. A new round of order signing has been completed, but the volume is limited, and from the perspective of spot trading, low - grade products are more resistant to price drops than high - grade products. Polysilicon remains weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, up 0.72% intraday, with a position reduction of 2,509 lots to 60,199 lots. The SMM N - type polysilicon material price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest - delivery N - type polysilicon material remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 2,245 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 7,560 yuan/ton, up 2.23% intraday, with a position reduction of 8,591 lots to 147,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 8,750 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The price of the lowest - delivery 553 grade dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 7,395 yuan/ton on June 10 to 7,475 yuan/ton on June 11, up 80 yuan/ton. The near - month contract also increased by 80 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable. The spot premium narrowed from 205 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 578 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 13,400 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 33,955 yuan/ton on June 10 to 34,255 yuan/ton on June 11, up 300 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract decreased by 135 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable. The spot premium narrowed from 2,545 yuan/ton to 2,245 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 120 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 60,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 100 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][5][7]. - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][15][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, and total social inventory), DMC, and polysilicon [19][23][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, and the cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][26][28]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [35].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-12 工业硅仓单持续减少，近期盘面向上修复较多 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-11，工业硅期货价格反弹，主力合约2507开于7365元/吨，最后收于7560元/吨，较前一日结算变化（165） 元/吨，变化（2.23）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓147036手，2025-06-11仓单总数为58674手，较前一日变化-578 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9000 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨。现货价格企稳，近期工业 硅仓单持续减少，目前仓单数量较4月中旬最高点已降低57855吨，前段时间盘面不断回落，使得期现贸易商仓单 与非标货性价比提升，较硅厂出货更加流畅，仓单流出较多，但近几日盘面反弹后，基差收窄，后续仓单注销速 度或明显放缓。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10700-11500（0）元/吨。据SMM统计，5月国内有机硅产量环比4月上升 6.48%，开工率增至62.37% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, but the downward space may be limited due to the current low prices. [1] - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and the transaction price is moving downward. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installation and the difficulty in resolving over - capacity issues in the short term, polysilicon prices are unlikely to show an upward trend in the short term. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The average price of industrial silicon's non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.96% to 7,560 yuan/ton. [1] - **Polysilicon**: N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feedstock remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 32 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 30 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.88% to 34,255 yuan/ton. [1] - **Silicon Wafer**: Most photovoltaic companies' silicon wafer prices followed the market downward, with small and medium - sized enterprises having a larger decline of about 0.03 yuan/piece. In June, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises was generally lower than that in May, mostly between 40% - 60%, a month - on - month decrease of about 3% - 13%. [1] - **Others**: The prices of battery chips, components, and most organic silicon products remained stable, while the price of silicone oil decreased by 0.36% to 13,750 yuan/ton. [1] Industry News - In May, automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May, automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. [1] - Cangzhou Huayu Special Gas Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual 5,000 - ton electronic special gas project was officially put into production, with a 95% domestic - made silane gas production device and the largest single - set production capacity in the country. [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season was approaching, there was a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and low willingness to resume production. For polysilicon, enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some may have new capacity put into production, with an expected output of less than 100,000 tons. [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production reduction, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but demand was weak, and the actual transaction price declined. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand, and the downstream had low willingness to stock up at low prices. The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, and falling prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components. [1]

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 06 月 12 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in the prices of polysilicon due to shrinking demand, with specific price ranges for n-type and p-type polysilicon showing a downward trend [1][2] - The average transaction price for n-type polysilicon is reported at 36,700 RMB/ton, down 2.13% week-on-week, while p-type polysilicon averages 30,700 RMB/ton, down 1.92% [1] - The industry is currently facing significant sales pressure, with non-leading enterprises having nearly sold out their low-priced inventory, indicating a cautious procurement approach from downstream companies [1] Group 2 - As of now, there are 11 polysilicon production companies operating, all of which are running at reduced capacity [2] - Despite rumors of increased operating rates in June, the actual output remained stable without adding supply pressure, and two additional companies are planning maintenance in July, which will lead to a noticeable reduction in polysilicon output [2] - The continuous cost inversion pressure in the industry for over a year has brought polysilicon prices close to their bottom limit, suggesting a low likelihood of significant further declines in the short term [2]

| | 然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月11日 | | 越常勤 | Z0021810 | | | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | eHaH | | 命神 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 13650 | | 云南国富关部 胶(SCRWF): 下海 13850 | 200 | 1.47% | | | -75 | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) 45 | 120 | 160.00% | 元/吨 | | 13650 | | 泰标混合胶报价 13750 | 100 | 0.73% | | | -75 | | 非标价差 -ટેર | 20 | 26.67% | | | 45.20 | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 46.20 | 1.00 | 2.21% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 56.00 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 56.25 | 0.25 | 0.45% | | | 12200 | | ...

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...