1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The industrial silicon price is expected to remain weak in the short - term, ranging from 8,000 to 10,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level due to delivery factors and production cut news. In the short - term, the price fluctuation will intensify, and if the contradiction between "high positions and low warehouse receipts" is not alleviated, a long position can be considered for the 06 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 10,050 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.32% to 8,205 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - In April, due to production cuts by some silicon enterprises in Xinjiang, the overall industrial silicon output decreased to about 300,000 tons. In May, affected by the resumption of production in the southwest production area during the flat - water period and the ramping up of some new production capacities, the output is expected to increase steadily, but the increase is limited [1]. Demand - Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The domestic monomer enterprises' operating rates increase and decrease, and it is expected to drop below 55% in May. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon Price - N - type dense material remained flat at 38 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feedstock price remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg; the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.38% to 37,830 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. The output is expected to be within 100,000 tons [1]. Demand - The strong installation period is basically over, the photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells and components have continued to decline, the market demand has slowed down, and some component delivery prices are close to new lows, with weak market transactions [1]. Other Information - On May 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 596,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse was 133,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 463,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - On May 6, the Natural Resources Bureau of Wuhai City released the design plan for the first - phase of Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology Co., Ltd.'s industrial silicon project. The project investment is 1.495 billion yuan, and the construction scale is a 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project [1].

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon industry is facing significant cyclical challenges due to oversupply, leading to declining prices and increasing inventory levels, prompting companies to reduce production rates to manage costs and inventory [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The polysilicon market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping; for instance, the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon fell to 39,200 yuan/ton, down 5% from 41,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2025 [4][5]. - As of early May, polysilicon factory inventory reached approximately 257,000 tons, a high level compared to previous years [4]. - The main futures contract for polysilicon hit a historical low of 34,375 yuan/ton on May 8, indicating a downward trend in market prices [4]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Companies are actively seeking to reduce inventory by lowering production rates, with many polysilicon manufacturers in Xinjiang operating at below 50% capacity [5][6]. - Despite the challenges, companies maintain a positive outlook, believing that current difficulties are temporary and that the industry will eventually recover [6][10]. - Some companies are implementing measures such as rotating staff and maintaining basic salaries to manage costs while reducing production [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The polysilicon supply is projected to exceed demand by approximately 26,550 tons in 2025, with supply expected to be around 1,598,900 tons and demand at 1,333,400 tons [9]. - Xinjiang's electricity cost advantage, ranging from 0.22 to 0.38 yuan/kWh, is seen as a protective factor for local polysilicon companies against cost pressures [9]. - Companies believe that those who endure the current market conditions will benefit significantly when the market recovers [10]. Group 4: Role of Futures Market - The introduction of polysilicon futures has enhanced communication and collaboration between producers and traders, revitalizing the market [12][13]. - Many companies are now more open to working with traders, viewing them as a means to alleviate cash flow concerns and streamline sales processes [13]. - There is a growing interest among companies to establish themselves as delivery brands in the futures market, which could enhance their market opportunities and economic benefits [13][14].

2025年05月11日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 11 日 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 观点与策略 | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 | 2 | | 工业硅：西南复产，基本面弱势 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注下周仓单故事 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷，偏弱震荡 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：基本面逻辑或将镍价震荡区间收敛，市场消息扰动盘面情绪。首先，印尼高品位镍矿偏 紧，溢价边际上行 1-2 美金至 26-27 美金/湿吨，同比增加 15-16 美金。同时考虑到补库需求的影响，精 炼镍过剩预期下的短期累库不及预期，库存边际小幅去化，再叠加矿端推升一体化火法成本，镍价下方或 仍有托底。其次，5 月 9 日市场有消 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅需求不见起色，关注多晶硅减产力度 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 | 年 | 5 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，北方和云南产能出现减产，但四川进入平水 期后部分硅厂逐步复产。需求端仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、 多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对 工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9500-10000 元/吨。后续关注供给端 边际变化。 ★投资建议 工业硅：工业硅盘面快速跌破我们此前测算的 9000 元/吨一 线，价格下跌或进一步带来供给端的边际变化。策略上，前期 空单可部分止盈，不建议左侧做多，建议关注出现明确的规模 性减产、丰水期西南复产不及预期、仓单明显流出等信号后， 再考虑右侧抄底。此外，关注大厂的现金流风险。 多晶硅：价格下跌后，关注供给端变化，以及 5-6 月份需求排 产是否有超预期的可能。现货博弈加剧，盘面额外关注仓单问 题。在仓单大规模生成之 ...

Report Investment Rating The report does not mention the investment rating for the polysilicon industry. Core Views - **Strategy**: For the 2506 contract, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish. When the market rebounds above 40,000 yuan/ton, producers can consider selling hedging at high prices. In the short term, conduct a positive spread arbitrage between the 06 and 07 contracts. If the warehouse receipt volume starts to increase rapidly, switch to a reverse spread arbitrage. There are no strategies for cross - variety and spot - futures operations. For options, sell near - month deep out - of - the - money put options and buy call options [6][7][69]. - **Industry Situation**: The polysilicon upstream and downstream industries have high concentration, with leading enterprises having a large share of production capacity. Most enterprises are currently in a state of losing cash costs, and several polysilicon listed companies reported losses in the first quarter. Some enterprises have shut down for a long time, and most have reduced production loads. The number of polysilicon types and grades is large, and it is subject to brand - based delivery. The standard delivery product on the market is n - type dense material, with relatively high delivery requirements and large discounts for alternative delivery products. The amount of warehouse receipts registered by manufacturers at the current market price is expected to be very small [9][70]. Summary by Directory 1. Polysilicon Production Overview - **Production Enterprises**: The polysilicon industry has high concentration, with the top four enterprises (Tongwei Co., Ltd., GCL Technology, Daqo New Energy, and Xinte Energy) having a combined market share of over 60%. Each of these enterprises has its own development strategy and production characteristics [14][15]. - **Capacity and Output**: By the end of 2024, the polysilicon production capacity reached about 2.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42%, but the capacity utilization rate was only about 30%. Leading enterprises are still expanding production capacity. Due to industry self - restraint on production, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is limited, and the output is expected to decline slightly. The industry has been in a de - stocking pattern since 2025, but the high total inventory has a large inhibitory effect on the spot market [18]. - **Downstream Enterprises**: The downstream of polysilicon is also highly concentrated. According to the 2024 production capacity statistics, the top 5 enterprises account for nearly 53% of the production capacity, and the top 2 account for 33% [23]. - **Cost**: The production cost of polysilicon mainly consists of raw material cost, electricity cost, labor cost, depreciation cost, and technological differences. The raw material, electricity, and depreciation costs account for about 80% of the total cost. Leading enterprises have different production costs due to differences in electricity cost ratios and technological routes [26]. 2. Polysilicon Classification - **Physical Form**: Polysilicon can be classified into block silicon and granular silicon. Block silicon has a stable quality and can be stored for a long time, while granular silicon can avoid the crushing step but is easily contaminated [28]. - **Purity**: It can be divided into metallurgical - grade polysilicon (MG - Si), solar - grade polysilicon (SOG - Si), and electronic - grade polysilicon (SEG - Si) in descending order of purity [33]. - **Downstream Doping and Conductivity Type**: Solar - grade polysilicon is mainly divided into N - type and P - type, depending on the type of doping impurities [34]. - **Surface State**: Block silicon can be further divided into dense material, cauliflower - like material, and coral - like material. Dense material is mainly used for pulling single - crystal silicon, while cauliflower - like and coral - like materials are mainly used for making poly - silicon wafers [35]. 3. Polysilicon Delivery Rules Interpretation - **Brand Delivery System**: Polysilicon futures implement a brand - based delivery system. The delivery products must be from registered brands approved by the exchange. Registered brand products can be warehoused without inspection if the owner can provide relevant quality certificates. There are 7 enterprises with 12 production plants in the first batch of registered brands [41][42]. - **Delivery Details**: The delivery area covers 8 provinces (autonomous regions), and there is no premium or discount between regions. The delivery unit is 30 tons per lot. The warehouse receipt has a 6 - month validity period, and products with a production date over 90 days cannot be registered as warehouse receipts. The delivery methods include one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and futures - to - cash transactions [49][50][53]. - **Delivery Requirements**: The benchmark delivery product is N - type block silicon, and the alternative is P - type block silicon with a discount of 12,000 yuan/ton. Strict quality indicators are specified, and packaging and storage requirements are also defined. There are also position - limit and risk - control measures [58][63][64]. 4. Polysilicon Delivery and Recent Market Analysis and Outlook - **Delivery Situation**: The current market price is expected to result in a very small amount of warehouse receipts. The recent market has seen continuous increases in positions and price declines, with low trading volume. The 2506 contract is expected to rise in the short term, and it is estimated that the market price needs to be above 39,000 yuan/ton for warehouse receipt registration to be cost - effective, and above 40,000 yuan/ton for producers to have a strong willingness to register [66][67]. 5. Summary - **Industry Status**: The polysilicon upstream and downstream industries are highly concentrated, and most enterprises are in a state of loss. There are many types and grades of polysilicon, and the delivery requirements are high. The amount of warehouse receipts registered at the current market price is expected to be small [70]. - **Strategy**: The same as the core strategy, including unilateral, cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies [69].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market have changed little, as reflected in the large difference in the increase between near - and far - month contracts. Since April, the "rush installation" of photovoltaic terminals has gradually ended, and strong - stimulus policies have created a negative feedback. With the "tariff" dispute, the expectation of export improvement is weak. Polysilicon (280,000 tons), silicon wafers, and battery cells have all accumulated inventory for 4 consecutive weeks. Supply - demand balance requires greater production cuts, and there may be an expectation of increased production during the wet season. The large rebound of the near - month 06 contract is mainly due to the leading enterprises' announcement not to use the futures delivery warehouse for destocking and the exchange having only 60 lots of warehouse receipts, which causes market panic about delivery. The benchmark delivery product has a higher standard than the spot dense material, and the basis provides bottom support. In the short term, the significant increase in the volatility of the 06 contract attracts long - position funds to enter the market, but the weak fundamentals will limit the price rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate cautiously and strongly, and it is not advisable to continue chasing high during the session for the near - month contract. The resistance above 38,000 yuan (the current price range of re - feedstock) increases incrementally, and short - term operations need to be cautious [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The near - month polysilicon 06 contract has deeply declined, over - exhausting the bearish drivers. The shortage of the delivery benchmark product has reversed market sentiment, and the price once rose by 3.34% during the session. The closing price of PS2506 was 36,950 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.43%, a trading volume of 455,000 lots, an open interest of 6,752 lots, and a net increase of 4,212 lots [4] - **Future Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited changes. Since April, the "rush installation" of photovoltaic terminals has ended, policies have a negative feedback, and export improvement expectations are weak. Polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have accumulated inventory for 4 consecutive weeks. Supply - demand balance needs larger production cuts and there may be increased production in the wet season. The 06 contract rebounded due to delivery - related factors. The basis supports the price, but weak fundamentals limit the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate cautiously and strongly, and short - term operations should be cautious [4] 3.2 Market News - As of May 8, 2025, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 40 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous trading day [5] - Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and Trina Solar released their Q1 2025 performance reports and held performance briefings. During the reporting period, the four companies had losses of 1.436 billion yuan, 1.39 billion yuan, 1.638 billion yuan, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively, with a total loss of 5.784 billion yuan. Longi Green Energy reduced its losses year - on - year, while the other three companies' losses decreased by 218.2%, 239.35%, and 355.88% respectively year - on - year [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices are in a downward trend. The supply in the northwest region remains relatively high, and the demand is weak. The industry is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1][2][3]. - The polysilicon futures price hit a new low, while the spot price remained stable. There is a game between production cuts by polysilicon enterprises to support prices and weak demand. The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit a new low. The main contract 2506 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8290 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 182,782 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on May 8 was 68,686 lots, a decrease of 244 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9900 - 10300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1]. - The consumption of organic silicon DMC was stable, with a quotation of 11300 - 11800 yuan/ton. The overall operating capacity of domestic monomers decreased due to the resumption of some plants in East and North China and the maintenance of an 800,000 - ton plant in the northwest [1]. Strategy - The industry's total inventory pressure is relatively high, and the short - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly. For the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 36,670 yuan/ton and closing at 35,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 63,290 lots, and the trading volume was 135,166 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; the price of dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon factory inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 20.62GW (with a month - on - month change of 5.58%). The weekly polysilicon output was 22,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.29GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67% [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5]. - In May, the polysilicon output decreased by about 0.2 million tons month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output decreased by about 4GW month - on - month. Some enterprises have new production capacity investment expectations in May, and the registration of warehouse receipts has started [6]. Strategy - The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games. Investors can choose to build long positions opportunistically. If the rebound is significant, upstream enterprises can sell hedging [7].

Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].

Group 1 - Yangtze Power maintains a high dividend policy, indicating that future dividends may exceed 70% [1] - The company has a 10-year dividend commitment established in 2016, set to expire at the end of 2025 [1] - The management's open attitude towards dividend continuity reflects a commitment to shareholder interests [1] Group 2 - Beiken Energy plans to issue up to 54 million shares to Chairman Chen Dong, raising a maximum of 356 million yuan for working capital and debt repayment [2] - This issuance will result in a change of control, with Chen Dong becoming the new controlling shareholder [2] - Investors should monitor Chen Dong's strategic plans and performance under his leadership [2] Group 3 - The silicon industry is experiencing weak demand, with some companies considering early maintenance or adjustments to production loads [3] - The price range for n-type granular silicon is reported at 35,000 to 37,000 yuan per ton, with an average price decrease of 2.7% [3] - The market's reduced acceptance of high-priced silicon materials suggests potential short-term adjustments in the industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The silicon market is currently experiencing a stalemate with no transactions reported for rod silicon, while the price for n-type granular silicon has decreased by 2.70% compared to the previous week [1] Industry Summary - No transactions have occurred in the rod silicon market this week, indicating a lack of activity and potential market stagnation [1] - The price range for n-type granular silicon is reported between 35,000 to 37,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 36,000 yuan per ton [1] - Due to the extreme market conditions, some polysilicon companies are considering advancing their scheduled maintenance from the third quarter to the second quarter, or may adjust their operational load based on actual order conditions [1]